Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

[Suraj]

Official
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation
Central Statistics Organization
Special Economic Zones
Union Budget and Economic Survey
Finance Ministry : National Summary Data Page
RBI Database on the Indian Economy
Commerce Ministry/DIPP FDI Statistics

Central Bank
Reserve Bank of India
RBI - Economy Handbook

Capital Markets
Bombay Stock Exchange
National Stock Exchange of India

Economic Reviews
Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: First Quarter 2007-08
Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy

Other
CMIE
National Council of Applied Economic Research
Economy Watch
Goldman Sachs BRIC Report: India update
Lehman Bros: 'India: Everything to Play For' Report
Key Economic Developments and Prospects 2008: UNESCAP

Link to previous thread

[Austin]

India's forex reserves jump $1.46 billion to $277.7 billion in a week

India's forex reserves surged $1.46 billion to $277.73 billion in the week ended October 4 on the back of a healthy growth in key currency assets, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported on Friday.

The reserves had dipped by $1.12 billion to $276.26 billion in the previous reporting week.

The core foreign currency assets (FCAs), which form the largest chunk of the reserves, zoomed $1.4 billion to $249.33 billion for the week under review, the RBI said.

FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, held in the reserves.

After remaining unchanged for five weeks, gold reserves increased $41.3 million to $21.76 billion, according to the apex bank data.

The special drawing rights rose by $14.7 million to $4.439 billion, while India's reserve position in the IMF shot up by $7.2 million to $2.197 billion, the data showed.

[Austin]

India's economy took heavy blow in recent months, but recovered: Anand Sharma

"In the last few months, despite all the volatility, our markets have rebounded sharply. We took the hardest hit, but we have also staged the strongest recovery in markets as well as currency values," he told reporters on the way back from Indonesia as part of a high-level delegation led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

"The stronger recovery has been of India's, which is not being talked about."

Uncertain global economic conditions, combined with outflow of foreign funds from stock markets, among other factors, saw India's currency plunging to nearly 70 against the US dollar. Besides, there was significant volatility in the capital market.

However, in recent weeks, the rupee has recovered and is trading at little over 60-level against the dollar. The government has also initiated various measures to boost the economy.

Stating that growth in FDI has been robust, Mr Sharma said in the last four years, the country received $174 billion, whereas the total flows were $296 billion since 2000.

"This year as well, we are doing very well on FDI front, and therefore the current account deficit issue will be addressed," the minister said.

"Also, we have brought down the unnecessary imports and the exports have been in positive double digit growth in last three months."

On whether there would be interest rate cuts for the industry, he said it would depend on many factors and the decision was to be taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

"However, the government is expanding the list of priority sectors that would get interest rate subvention, so that the issue is covered in a different manner and the funds are not a problem for important sectors," he said.

Regarding the latest industrial production numbers, Mr Sharma said that it "takes time for the sentiments to improve and the manufacturing sector to rebound".

Industrial production growth rate dropped to 0.6 per cent in August after some signs of improvement in the previous month.

[Austin]

Policy soon to facilitate entry of foreign banks: Rajan

The banking sector reform, in particular to those facilitating entry of foreign banks in India in a "big way" is part of the five pillars of reforms, including monetary policy framework, which the RBI is going to implement in the next few years, the RBI governor told a Washington audience yesterday.

"That is going to be a big opening because - one could even contemplate taking over Indian banks, small Indian banks and so on," Dr Rajan said, adding that the policy framework for the entry of foreign banks in India is likely to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

"For foreign banks, if you adopt a wholly owned subsidiaries structure and we are coming up with details on that in the next couple of weeks, we will allow you near national treatment," he said, quickly adding that there would be two conditions.

"One reciprocity -- your country should allow the same to our own banks -- and second you come through one route either you have a branch or you have a subsidiary; don't do both. That is primarily to simplify our regulatory function, but also to make it clean. But once you have a fully owned subsidiary, we would allow you a lot of freedom," he said.

The new policy with regard to the foreign banks is part of his five pillars of reforms, he said, adding that this would start with the monitory policy.

"We got to get our monitory policy clear and understood to the broader public. Clearly the Reserve Bank has had monetary policy framework, we need to make it much more explicit. And also bring it up to modern standards of transparency and credibility," Dr Rajan said.

Emphasising on banking reform, Dr Rajan said the RBI has already announced free branching in India.

"We announced that we will give new bank licenses not just once, but we would contemplate opening it on tap - people come in submit their application, we consider them and give licenses," he said, adding that the RBI is also talking about differentiated bank licenses.

Deepening of Indian markets, he said, is another area of policy reforms.

"We want deeper Indian markets -- the corporate markets, the government debt markets and the money markets," he said, adding that this particular reform would be carried out only after the current economic turmoil is over.

Noting that the level of technology in India is tremendous, Dr Rajan said financial inclusion is another sector of his reform.

"We can think about technology based solutions to intrusions- spreading payments across the country. Across the board we would use to spread financial inclusion technology," he said.

"Whether it be corporate distress or financial institution distress, we need to improve our mechanism to make it simpler, cleaner and less value reducing," he said.

Dr Rajan acknowledged that inflation is clearly an issue for the economy. The ordinary monetary policy would be focused on containing inflation and not directed towards external sectors, he said.

[Austin]

Government ready to take difficult decisions to check deficit: Finance Minister

Washington: Committing to contain fiscal and current account deficits, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has said that the government will not hesitate to take difficult decisions to keep them under check.

"The government is committed to the path of fiscal consolidation and has drawn red lines for the two deficits (fiscal and current account). We shall not allow the red lines to be breached under any circumstances, and we shall remain within the red lines. We are prepared to take difficult decisions in this regard, should the need arise," he said.

Mr Chidambaram said this during an intervention at the IMF Committee plenary meeting here yesterday.

The government proposes to bring down fiscal deficit, an indicator of government borrowing, to 4.8 per cent of the GDP in 2013-14 from 4.9 per cent a year ago.

As regards the Current Account Deficit (CAD), Chidambaram had earlier said that all efforts would be made to contain it at 3.7 per cent of the GDP or $70 billion in the current fiscal. The CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, had touched an all-time high of 4.8 per cent of the GDP or $88.2 billion a year ago.

Admitting that the government policies are directly responsible for the fiscal deficit and current account deficit, Mr Chidambaram said, "Necessary measures have ... been initiated to contain the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit."

Going forward, he said, "The commitment is to bring down the fiscal deficit to 3 percent by 2016-17."

Another major challenge facing the Indian economy was persistent inflation, Chidambaram said, adding "we have taken measures to bring inflation down through a mix of demand-side and supply-side policies."

Noting that the Indian economy had suffered significant downturn this year, he said the government had taken host of steps to ease supply constraints, improve investment climate and put the economy on the path of sustainable growth.

"Projects amounting to more than $64 billion have been cleared in the last few months. Once these projects come on stream, they should have an all-round salutary effect," the Minister said.

India's growth rate during 2012-13 slipped to decade's low of 5 per cent and during the first quarter of the current fiscal, the economy recorded a modest growth of 4.4 per cent.

The government, however, is maintaining the growth in the current fiscal would be between 5 to 5.5 per cent.

[Suraj]

Policy soon to facilitate entry of foreign banks: Rajan

The banking sector reform, in particular to those facilitating entry of foreign banks in India in a "big way" is part of the five pillars of reforms, including monetary policy framework, which the RBI is going to implement in the next few years, the RBI governor told a Washington audience yesterday.

Oh dear. I hope the opposition stymies this effort with all its ability. We absolutely do need financial reforms, among them being a focus on lower interest rates, and the consolidation of our banks into larger ones that can fund the large infrastructure projects in the country. But what we don't need is the recent Anglo-Saxon banking paradigms within our shores, where banks are profit centers moving money around to enrich themselves, while the industry is hollowed out.

[gakakkad]

^^ i clearly understand the dangers of the move..but i still have some arguments they could come up favouring the rbi decision..for instance would not those banks have to play by Indian rules and thus won't be able to do many things they do in there parent countries ? and even if they do so ,would not such moves be inherently unpopular with Indian people. for instance several western countries have transactional costs with things like clearing of a check, or wire transfer .or even getting account statements to your home address..which Indian would do business with such banks ? my dad closed an account with hdfc because they had transactional fees ,for clearing checks drawn from different cities which is not there with sbi...no costs associated with transfer of money is what we Indians take for granted...dad was quite shocked when he first opened an account in massa..

[Suraj]

It's not really front end transactional costs of the customer that is an issue. Even ICICI already nickel and dimes you in that regard. Instead, it's a banking emphasis on financial sector profitmaking by moving money around that's a negative influence. Remember the discussion on Park Chung Hee and Korea's growth ? Their - as well as Japan's and PRC's - growth was led by a consolidated domestic banking system and a governmental emphasis on low interest rates, stable inflation and a weak currency. After the 1997-98 Asian crisis, the Korean economy was doubly hurt by the IMF's boneheaded high interest rate prescription, and they rapidly recovered when Seoul decided to ignore that advice and go back to low interest rates to stimulate growth. There's no need on our part to reinvent the wheel - just follow that approach, with a few large domestic banks with large capital bases funding capital investments cheaply.

[gakakkad]

yeah I get that...more banks don't increase the overall monetary base...more banks mean banks with lesser base and hence lesser ability to finance big projecs...

and banks competing with each other for profit means less for industry...and anglo-saxon banks are financial behemoths for whom profit is an end in itself..such institutes do little to support industry...much unlike the banks in germany in last century ,which greatly aided industrial development....

in the past we have discussed the effects of a nationalized banking sector on Indian economy.there have been convincing arguments on both pros and cons of the Indian banking sector..


what impact(immediate and long term) would merging Indian banks into a few entities (private or public sector) have on inflation and interest rates? does the indian banking sector contribute in anyway to high inflation /interest rates?

can anglo-saxon banks do the kind of scams they do in west, in India ? i mean can they pull something like the london whale scandal ? and support money laundering for drug cartels ...(hsbc and wachovia had been laundering money supporting drug cartel...)

I have no reason to thing they can't do those scams in India..for all we know they they might do bigger ,more devilish stuff in India...but what I am interested in knowing is the exact pathway and strategies these banks would use to do those scams in India..

[gakakkad]

in 2011 credit default swap trading (cds) was introduced by the rbi...has anyone analysed the impact it has had so far ?

cds have often been described as epicentre of 2008 financial crisis..lehmann brothers etc...in 2011 when rbi finally allowed em ,after delaying for 8 years ,they were being touted as a tool that would assist 1 trillion dollar worth of infra spending...

a larger question is ,should we ban such financial products?(or impose extremely strict regulations)

i mean what good does hedging on CDS do to manufacturing?or agriculture?

added later

imagine this scenario...

a bank is financing a huge number of farmers growing rice...monsoon is not good this year... i hedge against the bank which is exposed to those farmers ..and make good money out of it..do we need such things in India ? forget western banks..private yindian companies can wreck and havoc with such tools...

cds like product can enable financing massive infra projects as it kind off acts as an insurance...but what benefit is hedging and trading them to the economy in general ?

[Supratik]

I don't think foreign banks will be a problem as long as they function under Indian regulation and is reciprocal i.e. Indian banks opening up in foreign countries. The problem would start if they pressurize GOI to deregulate according to their suitability. A far worse financial reform is to allow pension and insurance funds to play markets. I am not convinced about it.

[Prem]

Bewildering Indian policies fuel needless coal imports
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... rts-369412

New Delhi: Tata Power's 1,050 Megawatt power station in Jharkhand is a textbook case of the absurd results that India's 1970s-era coal supply laws can produce, and why power utilities are lobbying the government to change them.
The Maithon power station is located in the heart of India's vast coal belt, but a shortfall in local fuel supplies has forced Tata to import some of the coal for the plant all the way from Indonesia - an expensive and cumbersome alternative.
The company has a coal mine nearly ready in the neighbouring state of Odisha, which is meant to feed another power plant whose construction has been held up by government red tape. Tata wants, but has so far not got permission, to use coal from that mine to fire the Maithon plant.The case underscores how restrictive supply policies helped push up India's coal imports to a record high of nearly 138 million tonnes in the last fiscal year. India sits on top of the world's fourth-largest reserves of the fuel, but it has become the third-biggest coal importer after China and Japan, an estimate by the World Coal Association showed.That is an anomaly India can ill afford, as the government fights to tame a current account deficit (CAD) that hit a record high last year and helped knock the rupee currency to record lows in August."At current import prices, we are talking about around $14 billion of coal imports, which is likely to go up to $25 billion by 2016/17," said Rahool Panandiker, principal at The Boston Consulting Group. "In this context, when there is a focus on reducing the current account deficit to $70 billion, every bit of increased coal production contributes to decreasing the CAD.""The need of the hour is a forward-looking policy to maximise domestic coal supply while ensuring adequate incentive for the developer to mine additional coal," it said in a paper seen by Reuters.
Coal shortages
Most of the coal is dug up and doled out to power companies by state-run Coal India Ltd, the world's largest coal miner, which has struggled to modernise, raise its output and root out corruption within its ranks. Its dominance is a legacy of the socialist policies of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's government in the 1970s that nationalised coal mining.Such policies have been partly relaxed since that time. For example, instead of buying from Coal India, power producers can be allotted a coal mine of their own, known as a "captive mine", that they must specifically use for a particular power plant.But the construction of such plants, such as Tata Power's plant in Odisha, can snag for years on red tape. That leaves a coal mine that no-one is able to use, while the same company has to buy coal from abroad to make up for shortfalls elsewhere.
Seeking consensus
One policy under discussion in the government committee is to allow companies that have a mine for a power plant that is still under construction to dig out the coal and park it with Coal India, and then take it back later when the plant is ready.The aim is to help power producers build up a "bank" of coal stocks that would guarantee them a steady supply once the power plant is built. At the same time, Coal India could lend the coal on to another company that is suffering shortages.Ashok Khurana, director general of the APP, says the policy, known as "Coal Banking", would reduce companies' reliance on imports by 25 million tonnes by the fiscal year 2016/2017. That is equivalent to nearly a fifth of India's total coal imports.Another proposal under consideration is allowing power producers to mine coal and sell it to Coal India, which would then be able to dole it out to other companies. A further idea, along the lines of Tata's request, is allowing companies to use coal from private mines to fire power stations elsewhere.Conversations with stakeholders suggest arriving at a consensus for all policies under consideration could be hard. Officials at both Coal India and at the Coal Ministry said the "coal banking" concept was impractical.Sceptics question how Coal India could efficiently store and keep track of the coal it would "bank" for power companies."Operationally it's going to be quite challenging," said a senior official at a large Indian power company that is suffering acute coal and gas shortages.
"At what rate do you bank (the coal)? At what rate do you take it back? What is the time when you get it back? What happens if at that point of time there is an additional shortage? Would Coal India then deprive its existing customers and give it to them?" the official said.Allowing companies to sell surplus coal to Coal India is simpler to implement and more likely to see the light of day, sources told Reuters.However, some - such as Amit Sinha, a partner at Bain & Company - would like to see the government take a back seat rather than act as a go-between in supplying coal. He compared the prospect of more state involvement to India's notoriously inefficient system of storing and handing out subsidised food."My belief is that government-supported mechanisms tend to have limited impact. They need to be market-facing initiatives where the government provides the framework and then steps away," Sinha said. "If the government starts to play an active role ... my issue is that it will be very slow, and there will be lots of implementation hurdles that we'll face."

[Suraj]

gakkakad: I don't see anything in the article that explains what the purpose of allowing foreign banks in India is. Specifically, in so many words, what is in it for us ? What's it about the current level of sophistication of the banking system that makes it a necessity ? I see the primary issue with the banking sector is the low participation of the population in formal banking, the the comparably miniscule capital base of even the largest banks, by world standards.

[chetak]

gakkakad: I don't see anything in the article that explains what the purpose of allowing foreign banks in India is. Specifically, in so many words, what is in it for us ? What's it about the current level of sophistication of the banking system that makes it a necessity ? I see the primary issue with the banking sector is the low participation of the population in formal banking, the the comparably miniscule capital base of even the largest banks, by world standards.

This is what happens when the RBI governor is a US citizen with IMF connections

[Suraj]

Please. Enough of 'Rajan is a US citizen' CTs. He's not. Enough of this matter in this thread.

[Pratyush]

The counter question could be, what is sought to be achieved by the RBI by bringing in foreign banks. That cannot be accomplished by domestic banks promoted by large business houses. Or by the various cooperative banks currently active in India.

[gakakkad]

indeed no apparent advantage of foreign banks in India...

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^
Dollars. Flow of Dollars that is what is driving all this.

[gakakkad]

>>Dollars. Flow of Dollars that is what is driving all this.


^^ how can u be certain they ll flow in only..they can flow out too...anglo-saxon banks are primarily hedge-fund companies...deposits and loans is a secondary activity...

when things look bad from Yindian economy,they ll sell Indian stocks..and hedge against india causing outflow of dollars...

[vina]

Supreme court has ordered investigations by the CBI into the Niira Radia tapes on some close to 14 instances of criminal intent/criminality.

Let us see what this opens up , especially with the journalists who act as go betweens and hatchetmen of politicos and lobbyists and the other Dilli scum. Wonder how the "denials" of Burka Dutt and Vir Sanghvi and others will hold up under a supreme court directed investigation.

[Pratyush]

Is it not interesting that criminality angle was not investigated before the SC directive.

Was it because, the tapes stood on questionable legal grounds. As they were not authorized by the competent court or law, as a sting operation in order to collect evidence.

[Arjun]

Gandhi family Cong saviour: Aiyer

A day after fresh public surveys spoke of the Congress heading for a debacle in the 2014 elections, party's senior leader and Rajya Sabha member Manishankar Aiyer struck the denial mode. Displaying the hallmark sycophantic streak of the party, he went on to say: "Whatever the poll outcome, Gandhi family would remain saviour and at the pinnacle in the party."

He also saw no problem with the economic decline under the UPA, justifying it with general slowdown world over, especially the developed nations like the US.

TamBrams better do something about the black sheep in their family before the community's image gets dragged to mud !!

[Prasad]

He was born in what is now pakistan is our defense

[Arjun]

India the most vulnerable among middle-income Asian economies

No other middle-income economy in Asia is as vulnerable as India when it comes to pressure on the fiscal and current account deficits, or twin deficits, and domestic and international funding, says Suan Teck Kin , economist at the economics-treasury research unit at Singapore-based United Overseas Bank Ltd.

India still risks a 1991-style crisis, particularly when the US Federal Reserve starts winding down its economic stimulus programme, which would add to global funding pressure, Kin said in an interview.

[wig]

very informative article on fake indian currency notes. IMVHO should be archived

Early this week, national newspapers published a small story about the Special Operation Group nabbing a Kashmiri cloth merchant at Jammu Railway Station carrying fake Indian currency worth 7 lakh rupees transmitted through hawala. The Daily Excelsior came out with an editorial “Tighten the noose” in which it threw some subtle hints but no elucidation about tantalizing backdrop story of faking Indian currency.
Pakistan’s involvement in the production and circulation of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) has long been established. The NIA reconfirmed Pakistan’s role after it arrested two persons on March 28, 2012, along with FICN amounting to INR 985,000 being smuggled into India by Pakistan-based FICN dealer Iqbal Kana, of Kairana Tehsil in Muzaffarnagar District of Uttar Pradesh but operating from Pakistan. Noting the very high quality of duplication exhibited in the FICN seized at Taliparamba, Kerala, on September 18, 2011, the NIA stated before the Kerala High Court, on February 14, 2012, that the involvement of a state (Pakistan)-sponsored racket was a certainty. Sources disclosed that an ISI officer, Aslam Chaudhary, was understood to be the ISI point man handling the printing of FICN in Quetta, Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar.
Two Nepali counterfeit currency traffickers revealed to the Thai police the modus operandi of the ISI saying that Pakistani diplomats were caught distributing fake Indian currency notes. One Naushad Alam Khan, arrested in Dhaka on April 24, 2008, with fake Indian currency notes worth Rs 50 lakh admitted his direct link with HuJI (Bangladesh) chief Mufti Abdul Hannan. It was found that both Khan and Hannan had fought for Taliban in Afghanistan.
Can Pakistan actually print fake Indian currency? It can’t, unless supplied with inks, printing machines and security paper by government regulated companies. Then how it is happening?
Curiously, the story of first attempt to reveal international conspiracy of faking notes was published in 1983 by an American author, Terry Bloom, (The Brotherhood of Money: The Secret World of Banknote Printers). Shocking as it is, the entire edition of that book was bought up straight from the printing presses by two prominent representatives of the industry to prevent the public from getting an inside view of the business. Bloom’s book is impossible to find today.
Most of the twelve established companies in currency printing business operate from the EU. The four major segments are: paper (Arjo Wiggins, Crane & Co.etc.), printing presses (KBA-Giori S.A), note accessories like the security thread, holograms, etc. (Giesecke & Devrient) and lastly inks (e.g. SICPA). Then there are integrators (like Orell Füssli, etc.) who provide total, end-to-end currency printing services.
Something of our interest may be said about the person/company in the business of currency printing at No. 2 above, viz. KBA-Giori. One day in 1997, a gentleman called up a courier office in Hyderabad (India) and introduced himself as H.K Advani (brother of LK Advani). He was (supposed) to be representing the Swiss company De La Rue (before it was merged to become KBA Giori). He was checking with the status of a quotation from De La Rue for the Hyderabad Mint modernization.
In 1997, one of India’s non-British mints, the Hyderabad Mint was moved from the old premises to a new complex. Tenders were floated for equipment for the modernization of this mint. Some two years later, on 24th December, 1999 Kashmiri terrorists hijacked IC 814 originating in Kathmandu. It was brought to Kandahar in Taliban Afghanistan. Terrorists demanded US$200 million.
Time-Asia reported that one of the hostages sitting in economy class could have effortlessly written them a check for that amount. Roberto Giori, owner of the Lausanne (Switzerland)-based company De La Rue Giori, boarded Flight 814 after a holiday in Katmandu with his companion Cristina Calabresi. De La Rue Giori, which Giori inherited from his father, happens to control 90% of the world’s currency-printing business. The 50-year-old Giori, who holds dual Swiss and Italian nationality, is one of Switzerland’s richest men.
Switzerland sent a special interlocutor to Kandahar airport to deal with the abduction of its “currency king,” his companion and two other Swiss nationals. It also put pressure on New Delhi to come to a solution that ensured their safe release.
The week-long ordeal had an unexpected impact on the currency tycoon. A year later, Roberto Giori sold his company, De La Rue, now called KBA-Giori.
In June 2009, it was identified that FICN coming into India had a common factor — German paper. Close examination showed that the seized notes were of high quality, achievable only in a government press. The paper used was from the same German company that exported material to both India and Pakistan for printing currency notes.
On 4th August 2009, The Times of India reported that the Indian Government had decided to tackle this problem at its source — the vendors who are supplying the paper, the inks and the printing presses, which allows Pakistan to duplicate Indian currency.
On 13th August The Economic Times reported that the secret template India uses to print currency notes had been “compromised” and that was possibly why fake but real-looking Indian currency notes were being pumped in to subvert the country’s economy. We are told the government is now indigenizing the production of a special paper to print Rs 500 notes, the most frequently counterfeited currency in the country.
In this background, the Indian Government stopped release of paper machinery order to a German-Austrian-Scandinavian manufacturer. The Home Ministry turned down a Finance Ministry proposal to purchase currency paper machines from Germany, pointing out that the company, Voith Paper, had been supplying identical machines to Pakistan.
For paucity of space I will not go into the story of British government’s displeasure with India for taking De La Rue Giori Company out of its list of collaborators.
The origin of faking currency is to be traced in the US attempt to derail the USSR economy, by flooding it with fake Rubles. The man who blew the lid off this operation was Leo Wanta.
Wanta, a distinguished U5 Secret Service/Treasury officer was the primary US Financial Warfare officer engaged in operations to “collapse” the Soviet Empire through financial maneuvers to prevent the Soviet military devoting larger resources to military expenditure.
For his financial plan which destabilized the Russian currency and resulted in huge dollar profits, leading into the 27.5 trillion in trust, instead of being recognized for his service, was framed by the Clinton and the Bush crime family after being released from the Swiss jail, and sentenced to a 22-year jail term on bogus Wisconsin state income tax evasion charges.
Wanta has been languishing in jail since 1993. He had invited predicament by auditing the Illuminati’s mega-financing operation of 1989-92 too accurately far the liking of certain high-level official crooks controlling the purse strings in the US.
This expose will open a new window on the issue of fake currency manufactured in Pakistan and pushed into our country. ISI, a faithful disciple of CIA has borrowed the black art from its American whistle blowers and is implementing it in India with exemplary confidence and accuracy.
Reflecting the increasing trends in the injection of FICN into the Indian financial system, the Annual Report (2010-11) of the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), under the Ministry of Finance, stated that there was a 400 per cent increase in Counterfeit Currency Transaction Reports (CCTRs) received by the agency. Pakistan is believed to facilitate at least 28 important FICN networks, which operate out of Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangkok. Countries including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sri Lanka and Malaysia have also been used as transit points. Apart from nationals from these countries, the Indian security agencies have arrested FICN couriers from Somalia and Hong Kong as well.
Sources indicate that ISI has set up three nodal centers in Jammu, Malda and Nepal for distribution of FICN across India. Jammu is the nodal point for the western, southern and northern parts of India, while Malda is the principal conduit for West Bengal, Bihar and the north eastern States. The centre in Nepal is used for stocking and distribution of counterfeit notes and smuggling them to Bangladesh for distribution across Assam and the eastern frontier states. Sources also note that at least 12 modules have been set up in cities and towns across India, to penetrate deep into urban and rural areas.

http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/the-labyr ... -currency/

[vishvak]

So everyone knows pakis are importing equipments and German paper to print monies, control 28 places to pump fake currency and no one seems to have a clue how to deal with economic hit jobs against Indian Economy.

Also notice how USA itself pumped fake Russian currency. It seems paki does this fake racket in India. No one questioned USA for that either and no one questions pakis for this too. It is better to form JVs in certain areas of interest with Russians over Europeans.

[Theo_Fidel]

Per this write up by Surjit Bhalla, Food Inflation in India is being set up by the brisk increase in support prices. Average of 9% increase over the past 10 years. This would explain many things, why despite relatively low fiscal deficit the inflation keeps rising. Also why RBI is unable to squish it. And why raising interest rates has not helped. Hopefully Rajan rethinks the entire 'slay the entire economy' approach to battling inflation.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/co ... ap/1184369

Column: What you sow is not what you reap

That India has an inflation problem, especially a food inflation problem, is by now universally recognised. That this inflation problem has begun to impact non-food inflation may be a creeping reality. Not as recognised, yet, is that we are also in deep crisis with regards to GDP growth. In recent weeks, various organisations have downgraded Indian growth prospects. It is a sorry picture when the most optimistic forecast for FY14 remains that of the government of India—around 5.5% growth, projected by both RBI and the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC).

If India ends the year with around 4.5% growth (an expected reality) then the last three year GDP growth average of 5.2% will be among the worst since 1980. The three crisis years ending in 1992 averaged GDP growth of 4.1%, within depression distance of this year’s expected growth.

Obviously, there is a lot riding on GDP growth and forecasts. More than ever before, growth matters because this is an election year, and an unusual election year in that many experts think the elections could be a turning point in Indian economics and Indian politics. Of course, no one believes that the turning point will arrive if somehow the Congress was to retain power. That is what many of us thought would happen in 2004 and even more of us were certain that a turning point for Indian growth and economic reforms was reached in May 2009 when the Congress obtained 209 seats and headed what seemed to be a comfortable coalition. Alas, alas—we all know what has happened under UPA II—a paucity of reforms, a precipitous growth decline and staggering levels of inflation.

Why is inflation at double digits and growth at stagnation levels of around 4.5% for the second year running? It may have something to do with UPA’s growth and distribution model. This socialist distribution model has been discussed extensively, and with no apparent effect on the policymakers. What about UPA’s growth model? Without any risk of exaggeration, the UPA political economy model can best be described as follows. India is a dominantly agricultural country, and most of the poor reside in rural agricultural areas. Further, farmers are an important political constituency. Hence, a win-win proposition, for India and the Congress party, is to increase agricultural output and to do so at highly remunerative farm prices. There will be growth, there will be lower inflation due to higher output, there will be an improvement in inequality, there will be spillover demand effects into the industrial arena, and voila: India will be on an 8% trajectory as far as the eye can see. And yes, this extra growth can be used for redistributive purposes, and especially for “in-the-name-of-the-poor programmes named after the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty”.

Did the UPA movie turn out as planned? The accompanying table tries to examine agricultural performance in two broad periods—the NDA, FY99 to FY04, period under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and the FY05 to FY14 period of the UPA under the leadership of Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi or Manmonia. Agricultural performance is modelled on only two variables —rainfall this year, and rainfall last year. A heuristic explanation of the workings of the model (part of Zyfin Research’s monthly GDP model) is as follows. If normal rainfall yields a certain output, then normal rainfall in the second year will yield a zero growth in output. Rainfall matters most for growth when it has a large deviation from that in the previous year.

Perusal of the table leads to the following conclusions:

*The NDA period was witness to one of the worst six-year rainfall periods in Indian history (rainfall data since 1871). The rainfall index was negative -15.6, i.e., rainfall was about 16% below normal. Agricultural growth was predicted to be only 1% per annum, yet the actual average was 2.7%.

*There were hardly any incentives given to farmers in the form of higher relative prices for crops. WPI inflation during this period averaged 4.9 % , while procurement price inflation averaged 5.2% per annum. The average relative price of agricultural goods increased by 0.7% per annum.

*Now, along comes the UPA. Procurement prices are raised without hesitation, and at an average compounded rate of close to 9% per annum between 2004 and 2012. But in the three years preceding the 2009 election, such prices were raised at an average rate of 12.1% per annum, about 4% a year more than the WPI. Relative prices of agricultural goods increased at a historic record pace of 6.4% per year during the years of the UPA political economy. Even for the entire nine-year period, relative prices increased at 2.7% per year, again a record for India (and most likely the world—note, this is the change in the ratio of procurement prices to non-agricultural GDP prices that one is talking about). The inherent nature of most relative prices is to stay constant for short periods of time, say 5 to 10 years.

*Did UPA and India at least get some additional output, and lower food prices, from all of these incentives for higher production? Indeed not—agriculture inflation has NEVER been so continuously high, and especially in the context of agricultural output increasing at above 3% per annum for eight years. What makes the performance worse than terrible is that UPA had the Gods on its side—the rainfall index was above normal (0.8 versus 0) during their tenure, and rainfall was especially buoyant during FY07 and FY09—an index of 13.3, one of the best three-year rainfall periods in Indian history. However, and this is the critical performance line, for the nine-year UPA period FY05 to FY13, actual agricultural growth of 3.1% was 0.2% a year below the rainfall-only predicted growth of 3.3%!

History is history, but can good rainfall save the UPA in FY14? There has been good rainfall, no question about it, and non-agricultural growth is insipid, at best. And if agricultural growth is 6%-plus, this can provide the UPA with an extra 0.5% growth and perhaps propel GDP growth to above 5%. The rainfall-only model predicts agricultural growth of “only” 4.1% in FY14. A large part of the reason for the unexceptional increase projected for FY14 is because FY13 was not such a bad rainfall year—rainfall during June-September in 2012 was 824mm compared to 698mm in the genuinely bad rainfall year of FY10.

So, if you are looking for GDP growth in FY14 at even close to 5%, you have to look at the skies to deliver a different manna than exuberant rainfall.

[Prem]

There was news out few months ago stating few prominent Indian Politicians are involved in Fake currency racket. May be this was one of the reason TSD was shut down after VK Singh's retirement . Its a ressonable guess that these guys would have been following the Paki side of this Ghotala, starting from Jammu.

[gakakkad]

arvind panagariya's op-ed in toi...

posting in full....


Rajan panel report: A quickie and it shows

Much of the media saw in the recent report of the Raghuram Rajan committee one more opportunity to spar over whether or not Gujarat is a genuine success story. While the reputation of Gujarat can survive yet one more hollow critique many commentators have seen in it, the report itself requires a critical examination.

According to its terms of reference, the committee was charged with the development of criteria that "may be reflected in future planning and devolution of funds from the central government to the states". Such a charge begs the question as to which funds did the finance ministry plan to devolve using the new criteria?

Currently, there exist three different channels for the devolution of central funds to states: tax devolution and grants given by the Finance Commission; grants and loans given by the Planning Commission; and transfers for various central sector and centrally-sponsored schemes devolved by various central ministries and monitored by the Planning Commission.

The Finance Commission, which is a constitutional body, sets the criteria for devolution through the first channel. The Planning Commission sets the criteria for transfers through the second channel. The last channel works through central schemes with each state contributing the same share, which can be nil for some schemes.

The new criteria proposed by the Rajan committee could not possibly substitute for either those set by the Finance Commission or the Planning Commission. Nor do they lend themselves to influencing the central schemes. So does the government want to open yet another channel of central transfers? If yes, what is the rationale for it?

It is curious that a statement by the finance minister, released with the report, notes that the prime minister has "directed that the re-commendations of the (Rajan) committee may be examined and necessary action in this behalf may be taken". But the committee only re-commends criteria and no action.

The nearest it comes to recommending action is to say, "The Centre may want to offer additional forms of support to states that are particularly underdeveloped." But assisting states that are particularly underdeveloped is central to the criteria deployed bythe Finance Commission and the Planning Commission. What is it that cannot be accomplished through these channels?

Beyond these fundamental questions, one must also ask what were the criteria underlying the composition of the committee membership. Given his exceptional academic background but core specialisation in the unrela-ted field of corporate finance, one would have thought that the chairman would assemble a team of distinguished experts from the key areas relevant to the charge of his committee.

But the committee he chose did not include a single expert on Centre-state fiscal relations that were at the heart of the committee's mandate. Indeed, one is hard-pressed to find any references in the report to consultations with experts in this area including those at the Finance Commission or the Planning Commission.

It is perhaps due to the absence of such expertise that the committee fails to recognise that an important objective behind intergovernmental transfers is to offset fiscal disabilities of the states. The index determining the transfers must reflect these disabilities with appropriate weight assigned to them. It must also assign weights to the included development criteria according to the priority society places on each of them. Instead, the report recommends a general index of economic and social development that assigns equal weights to the included criteria.

The inclusion of the proportion of the scheduled castes and tribes in the population in the proposed index, opposed by the dissenting member of the committee, Shaibal Gupta, defies logic. If two states are identical in all respects, including poverty, education, health, incomes and other criteria the committee considers relevant but one of them has a higher proportion of the scheduled castes and tribes, in what way is it less developed? Indeed, one might argue that such cultural diversity is a virtue rather than curse.

Almost equally puzzling is the use of per capita expenditure instead of per capita state domestic product in the index. In what way does the high per capita expenditure due to vast inflows of remittances into a state like Kerala make it more developed? Conversely, should lower expenditures in Gujarat possibly due to high savings and outflows of remittances by migrant workers imply greater backwardness?

These and other deficiencies of the index may well be behind the committee's implausible conclusion that Odisha is India's least developed state and Madhya Pradesh is virtually as backward as Bihar. Among the three states, Bihar exhibits by far the lowest per capita income, literacy rate, urbanisation ratio, proportion of households with electricity and share of manufactures in the state domestic product.

The ultimate anomaly in the committee's recommendations appears in Table 3 of the report showing the transfers from a hypothetical pool of Rs 1,000 crore to the 28 states. The committee awards Goa, the state it ranks as the most developed Rs 20.63 per capita and Bihar, the state it ranks second from the bottom, Rs 11.56. No explanation for the anomaly is provided. This is one report written in a hurry. One wonders why.

[RamaY]

Per this write up by Surjit Bhalla, Food Inflation in India is being set up by the brisk increase in support prices. Average of 9% increase over the past 10 years. This would explain many things, why despite relatively low fiscal deficit the inflation keeps rising. Also why RBI is unable to squish it. And why raising interest rates has not helped. Hopefully Rajan rethinks the entire 'slay the entire economy' approach to battling inflation.

As always this is a very simplistic view that believes everything mainstream media and GoI presents.

The reality is a little different. The production cost of any food grain depends upon multiple variables. I will use Rice as an example. What it takes to produce Rice?
1/ Fertile Land - Let us assume it is owned by Farmer. For a simple scenario, let us assume the land doesn't cost the farmer anything and the increasing price of farm land compensates the opportunity cost.
2/ Water supply - Either thru canals or bore wells. In case of bore wells the cost of electricity is either subsidized by Govt or covered by the Farmer
3/ Seeds - cost item
4/ Fertilizers - Majority of Indian farmers use chemical fertilizers and this is one key cost item
5/ Pesticides - Another cost item
6/ Labor - Let us assume this includes farmer's time also

So the production cost of rice depends upon - Seeds + Fertilizers + Pesticides + Labor.

GoI to majority extent subsidizes fertilizer at the source so we need to assume the cost of fertilizer at farmer's end includes this subsidy. I don't know about pesticides and seeds so let us assume the scenario is same as fertilizer.

So it boils down to Cost of Fertilizers + Labor.

Let us see how the cost of Fertilizer trends in comparison to price of Rice (this is market price, but let us assume the market price has very high correlation with minimum support price). Following is a chart of that for past 10 years - The infamous UPA administration.


If one takes the slight delay between fertilizer use and harvesting (about 3-4 months), we can see very high correlation between these two.

Now the question is why the price of fertilizer is raising that steep (Rs 6,800/Ton in 2003 to Rs 19,000/Ton in 2013)? I understand the price of Fertilizer depends up on the raw-materials. But GoI subsidies for Agri-fertilizers also went up by 6 times (double the rate) during this period (Source:http://planningcommission.gov.in/data/d ... ook_24.pdf) from 11k crore to 65k crore. Then why are fertilizer prices going up in spite of increases in fertilizer subsidies? What is this maya? Why GoI did not fix this issue?

The minimum support price for Rice should be double the current price to make it profitable to farmers. I can post a Telugu article if people want from a agri-magazine that shows rice harvesting is in fact gives ZERO returns to the farmer at the current MSP at an assumed production rate of 3-4T/Acre.

[RamaY]

Posting without comments per forum rules...

Eye on 2014, UPA warms to Islamic banking

The idea of introducing Islamic Banking was first mooted by RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, now the UPA’s poster boy of economic revival, back in 2008. With the MIT-educated former IMF economist now in the driver’s seat, Islamic Banking lobbyists within the government are making deft moves to follow through that recommendation.

[Austin]

What is wrong with Islamic Banking if we go ahead with it ?

[Aditya_V]

Well for starters aren't you communalizing Banking? Isnt that a long and slippery road.

Can you list out benefits, and as well as fair non discriminatory practice, from staffing to loans and deposits.

[Austin]

I dont know the benefits or downfall so asked.

As far as communalising the bank goes , we already have Islamic School so in a way you can say we have communalised our education.

[RamaY]

What is wrong with Islamic Banking if we go ahead with it ?

Probably nothing. After all the current banking system is Christian in ethos anyway. Banking has no religion is an fake/old adage anyway.

But it is worrisome for the RBI governor to push for Islamic banking in India as the Muslims of India already use current banking system and there is no significant economy that is missed for the lack of Islamic banking.

Unless GCC (the group nations who are determined to make India a super power - visit West Asia thread for details) is holding its investments in India for Islamic banking. In such a case it can be a good measure for we will have hundreds of $B investments in Indian Infra sector, where as GCC investors buy a share in infra projects and will earn profits.

Let us see which way the bread gets buttered.

[Austin]

Could be a way for GCC to channalise its money into India without resorting to haram route ....lets see

[KJo]

TamBrams better do something about the black sheep in their family before the community's image gets dragged to mud !!

He was born in Lahore. Lahori Logic is in his blood!

[Singha]

for the lay consumer point of view what exactly is the benefit of islamic banking other than bringing sharia into the financial life of a person as well. there is already sharia in social life, civil disputes, marriage customs, personal life, education in islamic schools and univs.....only in healthcare and finance there is no sharia as yet. demands that only msulim lady doctors be allowed to treat muslim ladies will follow shortly. already in entire west coast , ladies are made to wear face masks on their burqa headscarf.

ofcourse I realize that islam being far more than just a religion does intrude into and try to wrest control over the whole spectrum of a person's life as its supposed to be a guide to everything about everything, but as as secular country shouldnt there be some limit as to "the soln to every problem is more islam"?

what exactly is the khujli/problem we are trying to solve here?

the Gulf countries see no pain in parking hundreds of billion of their wealth in the decidedly christian swiss banks or the jewish "controlled" UK and US financial systems. why would they have khujli about india if they see a gain there.

[Austin]

For one the Khujli is to garner votes to please certain section of society .......can understand politician vouching for it as they cant see beyond petty short term gains ......but RBI governer vouching for it ? May be he knows something we dont for now.

[Singha]

Gulf salafis funding have deeply penetrated the education and madrassa sector not just in india but TSP, BD, malaysia and indonesia. they probably want preferential blue ocean entry for their banks under the guise of islamic banking because who else but the protectors of the holy sites are best versed in it...not HSBC..not citi..and certainly not canara bank or SBM!

same takeover as on the US bound pax market executed by Emirates & Etihad airlines, with qatar and oman picking up the leftover crumbs will be done.