Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
4% vote share advantage > Almost repeat of the last election > Much tighter than thought
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
BJP (42%) > 45-55 (45 is the half way mark)
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Media will try to milk Delhi for their TRP rating, hence we have to factor that into account and only solid scholars' version needs to be given weight. AAP is the new kid on the block, so there will be more noise. A true picture will only emerge later.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
didn't quite get that.pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
They were free to collect information & survey but they could not publish the results before the last round of voting was over.Rahul M wrote:didn't quite get that.pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
I think he means that exit poll data can be collected, just not published.Rahul M wrote:didn't quite get that.pankajs wrote:banned from publishing for the period not from collection
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
They are allowed to collect the exit poll data but they cannot publish the data till all bunched-up elections are completed. Now that polling has been completed in all states they are free to publish and discuss the data.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Aajtak throwing much pleasing numbers :
Delhi:
BJP 41
Con 20
AAP 06
CG : BJP 53; CON 30
Delhi:
BJP 41
Con 20
AAP 06
CG : BJP 53; CON 30
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
India TV Delhi Projection
BJP 41
Con 20
AAp 6
Oth 4
BJP 41
Con 20
AAp 6
Oth 4
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
So it is going to be 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2. A 2-2 would be seen as a major blow to Modi. 3-1 with Delhi hung, will is like giving oxygen to AAP.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Times Now > Mood in congress quite glum > Source in SD's camp > The large number is making SD nervous > SD's seat too in doubt
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Remember "Others" can be "Shiromani Akali Dal" which is contesting with BJP together in an alliance.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
NDTV
Rajastan BJP 130, congress 48
MP BJP 144 Cong 77
Delhi BJP 34 COng 20 AAP 13
CG BJP 50 Cong 37 ...
Rajastan BJP 130, congress 48
MP BJP 144 Cong 77
Delhi BJP 34 COng 20 AAP 13
CG BJP 50 Cong 37 ...
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
EC > Youths have broken all stereotypes and come out to vote in large number
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Times Now > For Rajasthan (Avg. of 2 survey)
BJP 139
CON 44
BJP 139
CON 44
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Dec 2013 18:43, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Anything which is said by MSM as close is ripe for EVM magic. So expect that in CG and DL. If they do that in MP and Raj everyone will know it so there it won't be so blatant as it will be in CG and DL.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Anything below 4-0 is going to be spun as a 'major blow to Modi'. Kejri himself winning his seat will be an even worse outcome than AAP managing double digits, IMHO.SwamyG wrote:So it is going to be 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2. A 2-2 would be seen as a major blow to Modi. 3-1 with Delhi hung, will is like giving oxygen to AAP.
There's no AAP face except for him... and he can be assured of getting much media hype in the other 5 metros as LS 2014 approaches...
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Times Now > Rajasthan swings to BJP
BJP (42%) +8%
INS (34%) -3%
BJP (42%) +8%
INS (34%) -3%
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Dec 2013 18:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^If +8% is not a wave then I dunno what is...
Conventional logic (by the likes of modi baiters like SA aiyer) has it that NM needs something like a +6% swing towards BJP to have any realistic chance of entering PMO. If NM _ negative RG wave accounts for 6% of the 8% swing then... anything's possible...
Conventional logic (by the likes of modi baiters like SA aiyer) has it that NM needs something like a +6% swing towards BJP to have any realistic chance of entering PMO. If NM _ negative RG wave accounts for 6% of the 8% swing then... anything's possible...
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Rajasthan's message > No work for 4 years and lots of freebies do not win election
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
FWIW, Hindi channels are always better indicators of reality than ELM nonsense. In Hindi heartland. I am sure it is true for all Indian language media in the areas of strength.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
When will the first results start trickling out? NDTV citing exit polls says BJP will go 4-0.
Last edited by SwamyG on 04 Dec 2013 19:02, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
CNN IBN > MP
BJP 41% (+3.5%) 136-146
INC 35% (+2.5%) 67-77
BJP 41% (+3.5%) 136-146
INC 35% (+2.5%) 67-77
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Dec 2013 19:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
^^ Regional channels such as Etv are even more reliable. Even on the day of counting they are the most updated and most accurate. I would listen to Etv over any other channel.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Whatever the media says, these elections will rejuvenate the BJP cadres. There will be some lessons learned to fine tune tactics. Even without knowing the results, I believe these elections are good for BJP sentiment, and validation of Modi as the PM.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Times Now: Chattisgarh > Avg. of 2 survey
BJP: 47 (I thought the earlier the number was 43. May be my mistake)
INC: 40
BJP: 47 (I thought the earlier the number was 43. May be my mistake)
INC: 40
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
+100 SwamyG ji, very important for BJP cadre to view elections as permanent feature of raajniti and be on toes, the way people treat career ie not one time but continues feature. This part needs to evolve well.SwamyG wrote:Whatever the media says, these elections will rejuvenate the BJP cadres. There will be some lessons learned to fine tune tactics. Even without knowing the results, I believe these elections are good for BJP sentiment, and validation of Modi as the PM.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
There is @FCBtheChamps who is predicting a Congress rout in Mizoram as well. 0-5 for Congress would be sehr seharilla bitter!
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
It seems as per several exit polls BJP is past half-way mark in Chatthisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and MP... awesome numbers people. For those who support the BJP. The people have indeed spoken, and more importantly, it looks like a clear movement of people in a firm direction.
Relish, and cherish this reality. We are one of the few countries in the world where people can actually peacefully change governments just by pressing a button, and getting dab of indelible ink on their nails. Jai Hind.
Relish, and cherish this reality. We are one of the few countries in the world where people can actually peacefully change governments just by pressing a button, and getting dab of indelible ink on their nails. Jai Hind.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
I was for sometime worried about C garh. Happy if exit polls are true. Delhi will give clear decision. We can see fodstar was losing votes and seats as time progresses. So he was continuously on decline and such people fall heavily on election day.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
While most of the others exit poll numbers are similar, there is one called "Chanakya" that is predicting a win for AAP in Delhi. Why is that?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
There is always margin of error. In India it is 4%. Things can change but all the polls are putting at 4-0 and also the gaps are very big except for Delhi.Narayana Rao wrote:I was for sometime worried about C garh. Happy if exit polls are true. Delhi will give clear decision. We can see fodstar was losing votes and seats as time progresses. So he was continuously on decline and such people fall heavily on election day.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
A noob question here from someone who is following assembly elections so closely for the first time.
Are Exit polls reliable? Have they predicted the truth in the past elections?
Are Exit polls reliable? Have they predicted the truth in the past elections?
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Delhi still not sure. Chanakya predicting AAP win.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
The exit polls has a margin of error as high as 6%. That is why our polls go awry at times.Supratik wrote:Delhi still not sure. Chanakya predicting AAP win.
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
who are they ??? they dont even have a website
Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
When will the actual results in the five states be declared ?
Edit: Thanks M Joshi ji
Edit: Thanks M Joshi ji
Last edited by Lilo on 04 Dec 2013 21:14, edited 1 time in total.