Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Dec 2013 23:34

AAP getting 28 seats is unnerving. this is Arab Spring foundation stone in India.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Dec 2013 23:34

I welcome the climb of AAP, it will motivate BJP to further reform itself and distinguish itself. If Modi's campaign so far is a measure of their performance and attitude, I am sure they will rapidly learn lessons and try to catch the voters they missed earlier.

The threat of regional parties keep the national parties on their toes, which is good for the country. The induction of ideas and practices help th country in the long run.

Modi was focused on getting Congress out of these states. He achieved it. However his speech is likely to have moved Congress votes to AAP instead of BJP. I expected him to speak against AAP early, but he did not.

BJP should keep away the corrupt, tired and burned leaders on its bench, possibly doing back room operations or teaching political tricks to the new. Bring new blood, people with clean background and charisma. People who respect honest work and transparency. Politics need acumen and dirty tactics, let the elders take on that role from the behind.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 08 Dec 2013 23:34

Lilo, But if BJP forms Govt, AAP does what it does best, sitting in opposition and raise hue and cry. They are not accountable as usual. Proof by contradiction is the only way to discredit these people.
Seeing their "leaders" bungling and squabbling among themselves is the best way to break the spell.
Who knows, the act of forming the Govt will bring the snake out.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Dec 2013 23:35

kapilrdave wrote: Exactly. That's why I say stop him right here and right now. You can stop his flow of funds by being in power. He can't do much by being in opposition.

Going after AAP will mean that you are also challenging the intelligence of voters who gave AAP a mandate. Democracy rule #1., voters are not stupid. They may be disinterested, they may be cynical, they will make mistakes and sometimes repeat it but they are *not* stupid.

Goal is to stop CongIs. That is get people to see beyond dynasty. Maino-Gandhis are not invincible and it should be shown. Even CongIs need to be seen giving up their dynasty addiction. That is the first step.

Foreign funding will take care of itself as soon as visible governance comes into play.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Dec 2013 23:35

No one in India has achieved anything by sitting in opposition. You have to get to dirty work to bring change. What Harshvardhan and NaMo are saying is right from a strategy perspective because there is a need to see who blinks first and see how the field changes. the game here is that "we are not clamoring for power". But a election again in Delhi with in a month or along with parl elections will only help to save INC until the end of parl elections.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 08 Dec 2013 23:36

BJP should not let AAP to form government. Its not hard to get AAP's to cross the floor. They can easily give out interview how AK is a dictator wont let people to put forward there views is hurting nationalist feeling like supporting separtist in Kashmir and naxalites.
BJP should form govt by hook or crook and deliever. Dr Harsh is too humble and he should be used as face or party but behind the doors they have to let their shrewdest fellow to start working on it. Same way as Bhajanlal organised the support for PVNR govt in 91.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 08 Dec 2013 23:37

SaiK wrote:give the people of dilli a taste of Gujarat.

boss! If I were Modi, I will do this now.. I'll be on the flight, with detailed list of plans for next 6 months before 2014 elections.. what an oppty to prove!!!!!

Why only Mr. Modi ? Smt Vasundhara, Th. Shivraj, Th. Dr. Raman, Mr. Parrikar, and Sdr. Parkash Singh, along with the party MPs, all need to roll out and aggressively start implementing development plans over the next few months. Show the "aam aadmi" of the entire nation (incl. Dilli) what they are missing out on.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Dec 2013 23:38

johneeG wrote:AAP can ally with NGOs and similar minded parties in other states(like Lok Satta in AP). Now, its either BJP or third front(as we have been saying for long time). Media is going to play up the possibility of third front.

Is that even a factor anywhere other than Kukatpally, Hyderabad? I think people are underestimating the amount of work required to build a national party to challenge BJP leave alone Congress(I). Looks like I am woefully backward. When did Congress(I) got back INC name from EC?

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Dec 2013 23:39

atamjeetsingh wrote:BJP should not let AAP to form government. Its not hard to get AAP's to cross the floor. They can easily give out interview how AK is a dictator wont let people to put forward there views is hurting nationalist feeling like supporting separtist in Kashmir and naxalites.
BJP should form govt by hook or crook and deliever. Dr Harsh is too humble and he should be used as face or party but behind the doors they have to let their shrewdest fellow to start working on it. Same way as Bhajanlal organised the support for PVNR govt in 91.

AAP is not having numbers, and wont take Cong support as that would destroy their image. Both BJP and AAP have made up their mind to go for reelection.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Dec 2013 23:39

Muppalla wrote:No one in India has achieved anything by sitting in opposition. You have to get to dirty work to bring change. What Harshvardhan and NaMo are saying is right from a strategy perspective because there is a need to see who blinks first and see how the field changes. the game here is that "we are not clamoring for power". But a election again in Delhi with in a month or along with parl elections will only help to save INC until the end of parl elections.

so what do you suggest? team up with Kejriwal?

at some point BJP will have to distinguish itself. this is how to do it. no alliances in Delhi, b/c there are no good options. both are devils who cannot be trusted. and no, AAP is not the "lesser" devil. it is equally a devil with foreign funding and backing with dubious intentions.

let there be another round of elections, and we'll see what happens. but no alliance with AAP.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 23:39

saravana wrote:fools rush in where angels fear to tread

angels rush in where fools fear to tread! [btw, sorry this a bad analogy]
leadership is all about being angles. there is big disconnect even in the mindsets here.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 08 Dec 2013 23:41

SaiK, my point was sometimes firing the gun and charging at the trenches is not always the best idea. It may be prudent to just supply the rope and see what the other guy is doing with it.

EDIT: To elaborate, I don't think BJP has anything to prove to the country that they provide the best governance. Adding 6 months of good governance may not add anything to the narrative. But AAP can always do one up by claiming if only they are in power, they would do even amazing stuff. Better to call the bluff in a smaller state and watch them trip and fall.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Dec 2013 23:42

Raja Bose wrote:
Amol.D wrote:^he has promised to introspect and involve the common man "in ways you cannot even imagine". Those are the exact words
Is he going to lacerate himself in penance?

What will happen if one puts RaGa and Tejpal in the same cell! Imagine the next generation of dynasty? What kind of english they will speak and what kind of intelligence they will show!!

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Dec 2013 23:43

if BJP allies with AAP, in one stroke, it will legitimize AAP. with that single decision, AAP will overnight become a "national party". they will start contesting in every major city and end up with 40 LS seats in 2014. is that what we want?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 08 Dec 2013 23:44

case is simple, bjp should declare that it will stake a claim to govt IFF opp (read AAP because realistically they are the only that can ensure this) publicly promises to play a constructive role and does not harass govt with no confidence votes at the drop of a hat.
else sit out and let delhi billis vote again.

saik wrote: leadership is all about being angles.

yes. obtuse ones.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 08 Dec 2013 23:45

what I look is not a trench.. but a set of bench of opportunities. rest of it will be modi magic.. pl remember, as the going gets tough, the modism takes benefit.. after all these talks, listening to modi, you have not energized yet?

it is the toughest task.. yes.. and this is why we need modi. remember that is exactly what he said: people have chosen modi, because it is tough to do these jobs.

that is the inspiration for the new bjp.. and that is what makes leadership.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 08 Dec 2013 23:45

devesh wrote:if BJP allies with AAP, in one stroke, it will legitimize AAP. with that single decision, AAP will overnight become a "national party". they will start contesting in every major city and end up with 40 LS seats in 2014. is that what we want?

^ who is talking abt allying with sAAP sir ji,
BJP will steer a minority govt till its possible as its the singal largest party.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 08 Dec 2013 23:48

anmol wrote:
atamjeetsingh wrote:BJP should not let AAP to form government. Its not hard to get AAP's to cross the floor. They can easily give out interview how AK is a dictator wont let people to put forward there views is hurting nationalist feeling like supporting separtist in Kashmir and naxalites.
BJP should form govt by hook or crook and deliever. Dr Harsh is too humble and he should be used as face or party but behind the doors they have to let their shrewdest fellow to start working on it. Same way as Bhajanlal organised the support for PVNR govt in 91.

AAP is not having numbers, and wont take Cong support as that would destroy their image. Both BJP and AAP have made up their mind to go for reelection.

All I am saying is AAP's mla can be made to cross floors. You can still win confidence motion, people abstain from voting..go to pilgrimage..or they have other imp stuff in their life to do but you need a shrewd politician to show them way. BJP should do whatever it can to form govt. Than bring out some populace bill and dare AAP to oppose it.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 08 Dec 2013 23:49

Rahul M wrote:
saik wrote: leadership is all about being angles.
yes. obtuse ones.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Dec 2013 23:50

interesting, I didn't know about this "minority govt" scenario. I was under the impression they were going to have to ally with somebody to get the majority.

how many did SAD get? so what happens after 6 months if BJP decides to go that route?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Dec 2013 23:51

AAP wants to sit on the fence , BJP also wants to sit on fence, congress is out of fence. President's rule in Delhi with a proxy govt?

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Dec 2013 23:51

Muppalla wrote:No one in India has achieved anything by sitting in opposition. You have to get to dirty work to bring change. What Harshvardhan and NaMo are saying is right from a strategy perspective because there is a need to see who blinks first and see how the field changes. the game here is that "we are not clamoring for power". But a election again in Delhi with in a month or along with parl elections will only help to save INC until the end of parl elections.

+1. Also, given the fact that Indian voters can vote locally differently than nationally in the same election, any person turning up at booth in Delhi might vote for "AAP/Kejriwal" for CM and "BJP/NaMo" for PM. Already 31% of AAP voters prefer NaMo for PM.

The rule of the game means either party #2 and party #3 aligns or party #2 takes the votes of party #3 to become party #1. A re-election means that AAP will be tied down to N.Delhi and will not be able to spend its resources beyond Delhi.

Either way, CongIs alarm bells are already ringing. They will do all sort of gaming/foreign funding/slandering/shrill. Remember Gehlot's campaign in Raj., that will be like a walk in park.

----------------------

BTW, does anybody have Gehlot's venom against V. Raje? Please send me all info on how Gehlot's slandering on V. Raje was (hopefully with links etc). I have planning something but need at least a 12-15 points which Gehlot has used on V. Raje.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 08 Dec 2013 23:54

Here is one report on Getlost's rants

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/despe ... 57085.html

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 08 Dec 2013 23:59

disha ji while I agree with your overall assessment but what is this logic "31% of AAP voters prefer NaMo for PM". I mean BJP in Delhi was seeking votes in the name of NaMo only. Delhi government is only a Bharat bhaiya working as a representative of Ram Bhaiya in the Centre. A variation of this argument was told by NaMo himself in his first Delhi rally - that delhi govt always has somebody else to point towards for things going wrong in delhi.

Net net why could not these 31% votes be converted into votes for BJP.

A variation of this can actually be used by Congress in the run up to the GE-14. They can easily proffer an explanation - look NaMo may be good for governance but he is authoritarian and BJP is good and legitimate political party but NaMo supporters are doubtful of supporting BJP on other states too. In fact a lot of people claim that they are NaMo only supporters. Why should not these NaMo only supporters avoid BJP.

Delhi is a subset of the ruler of Delhi not the other way round. Ergo 'NaMo only supporters' could have voted for BJP.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Dec 2013 00:00

Re:Minority govt
Actually anything can happen if the assembly is in session , or if guv convenes an assembly session on back of a bunch of no confidence letters or something .
Else the govt can function normally (at least executive functions) , legislative is hindered (as bhajapa has to stand at the front porch of congi Lt Gov hat in hand, to get sigs on ordinances).

SAD got 1 seat.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Dec 2013 00:01

Lilo wrote:who is talking abt allying with sAAP sir ji,
BJP will steer a minority govt till its possible as its the singal largest party.

Well, BJP will have to prove its majority in the house within a few days of forming the goverment. After that, there cannnot be a no confidence motion for another six months. That is, there has to be minimum of six months between no confidence motions. But for the first time, it will be days within forming the government. So, we are basically looking at a BJP govt. that will last for 2 or 3 weeks at the most.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Dec 2013 00:03

In Delhi, people have given a bigger mandate to BJP than to AAP - not a clear mandate, but a slightly bigger one. To shy away from trying to form a government is to tell the people that "we are not ready to govern". That's absolutely the wrong message. BJP should work the back channels but must not hand over the initiative to AAP to form the government.

BJP must make it clear that either they govern or it is re-election. Period. No negotiations with AAP, unless it is to support a BJP government. They must demonstrate decisiveness & leadership. They must treat Congress like a pariah by not approaching them for support. Say so explicitly, thereby forcing AAP to do the same. BJP stands a much better chance in a re-election. They can tarnish AAP for acting like a sourpuss.

This will also be a wake up call for the people of India to vote decisively in LS2014. BJP should hammer this point - Delhi should serve as an example for the rest of the nation. A re-election will drain more of Modi's energy, thereby messing up the LS2014 logistics (which Congress might advance to catch the BJP offguard) but I think its worth paying that price.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Dec 2013 00:05

hanumadu wrote:
Lilo wrote:who is talking abt allying with sAAP sir ji,
BJP will steer a minority govt till its possible as its the singal largest party.
Well, BJP will have to prove its majority in the house within a few days of forming the goverment. After that, there cannnot be a no confidence motion for another six months. That is, there has to be minimum of six months between no confidence motions. But for the first time, it will be days within forming the government. So, we are basically looking at a BJP govt. that will last for 2 or 3 weeks at the most.

^ key is even if govt falls,
The blame has to be hanged around sAAP-congi combo. If bhajapa is confident of doing it, it can try its hand at govt.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 09 Dec 2013 00:06

aap is a novice! they can learn more sitting in the opposition for a term.
welcome them however for a change. it can be a good governance model with a strong opposition.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Dec 2013 00:06

calling for reelection has one advantage. lets see whether AAP can again get its funding and NGO volunteer group in place. BJP has cadre.

also brings home the message to people that confused mandate = disarray = muddle.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 09 Dec 2013 00:07

Last night I heard Arnab mention on TimesNow that NaMo has given an interview to Economist magazine that is to be published next week.

As much as I am a fan of NaMo so far, but I will lose some respect for him if he sucks up to US & UK media after the humiliation they have heaped on him. I don't think he should antagonize US because no doubt its a superpower, nor its sidekick UK given its importance whether we like it or not, but at least he should maintain an arms length with their media and show more respect and prop up nationalistic Indian media by talking to them first.

Clearly, what US has done, humiliating NaMo and treating him like a pariah is insert itself fully and squarely in Indian and the affairs of the region. By making him person non grata, they have basically told Hindus, we give a flying f%^ck for your sentiments and take you for granted because there is nothing you can do to us, and told Muslims both in India and the region, see, we will make these Hindus dance on our palms, we don't hate you "South Asian" Muslims although when we need oil, we will annihilate Iraqi Muslims if we need to.

NaMo sure understands all this, and as a nationalist, he should not be bending down on his knees before US/UK like other shameless traitors do. Remember one PM in waiting told a US ambassador that "Hindu extremism" poses a bigger threat to India? With an imbecile PM in waiting like that, can you expect anyone to take India's protestations of TSP terror seriously?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Dec 2013 00:08

IndraD wrote:AAP wants to sit on the fence , BJP also wants to sit on fence, congress is out of fence. President's rule in Delhi with a proxy govt?

This is where BJP is making a big mistake. They are "a mature" party acting like "amateur" party. AAP is the new kid on the block and can afford to be a fence sitter.

If BJP says they will form the Govt, lose a no-confidence and there is a re-election, at least people will know that AAP acted like a sourpuss. If BJP refuses to take leadership & sits on the fence, they will be perceived as weak. That will hurt them in the re-election & in LS2014.

BJP must show leadership - even if it means their attempt to form the Govt fails

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 09 Dec 2013 00:08

My 2 paisa.

Form minority government. Threaten a re-election if AAP does any hanky panky till feb end then just go under the radar and not give any provocation for 2 months and make sweet sounds about how they are willing to support AAP but do nothing in that direction. Fight the GE-14 then force re-election or Operation Kamal, whichever they like.

Start simultaneous preparations for unleashing Baba Ramdev in the Lutyen's Delhi. The Tikait brothers can be asked to dig up the India Gate lawns. Anna ji be given the option of starting a constitutional reforms movement alongwith Gen. VKS and Ms. Kiran Bedi.

Sting these AAP guys.

In all cases keep Congress and AAP divided.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Dec 2013 00:10

crams,

boss, you need to sometimes take a chill pill.

giving an interview to a US/brit rag!= bending the knee.

vk singh interviewed with NYT recently.

does that make him a sell out?

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 09 Dec 2013 00:11

Karan M wrote:calling for reelection has one advantage. lets see whether AAP can again get its funding and NGO volunteer group in place. BJP has cadre.

also brings home the message to people that confused mandate = disarray = muddle.

+100. Re-election will be a wake-up call to the nation. This will be the biggest benefit.

Re-election will also hurt AAP logistically because they dont have funds to compete with the BJP. Plus it will give more time for Harshvardhan & Modi to swing some AAP voters to the BJP side (or more importantly get more first time voters to the booth)

apoorv · Post by **apoorv** » 09 Dec 2013 00:13

Whatever congress does, it will be slapped and beaten very hard in 2014. It will be 1977 redux. People not only dislike but actually hate the con party. Nobody including former congress voters like it anymore. They HATE it. People are having fun at Sheila Dikshit's expense, something not imaginable 4 years ago.

Anna movement, corruption, inflation and insensitivity and arrogance of congress in dealing with protestors many times has done it in. People loath it when con treats them as beggers in the name of doles. They are very adamant to punish it come what may and NaMo is a good weapon.

Ironically the guy which congress projected as demon is being used by aam janta as brahmastra to destroy congress. Its true, karma is a bitch and she bites very bad.

Also the smirk and arrogance on UPA minister's faces, con spokespersons and idiotic statements dont help them as well.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Dec 2013 00:15

Prem kumar saar

all those yuppie junta who spent on AAP for a tahrir square, lets see if they will continue shelling out the big bucks.

especially once it starts cutting into #emi, #kitty-party, #pub-outing

i suspect as shri kejriwals emails continue flooding inboxes asking for donations, some may start blocking them.

i am going to pass this message along to some AAP folks i know and see their reaction and how enthusiastic they are to sustain shri kejriwal's intentions.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 09 Dec 2013 00:15

if bjp does not constructively build aap as main opposition, then aap can turn into another next gen kangrez kinda party. it is only a diffusion theory that works for this.. wide network effects can be seen, once those ex-kangrez folks keeps joining aap. it is better for bjp to deal with a strong aap than the evil kangrez with bada history as backing.

to destroy the real evil kangrez, bjp needs to develop a good aap on the fence.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Dec 2013 00:17

ravi_g wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
Whats wrong with Jan Lokpal? I have read the 30 page odd draft document and I don't see anything wrong with it.
Can you find any fault with any of the laws?

The laws are about the word not about justice. This was understood by Indians all through history and they put justice above law. Every law after the Hindus went down to foreigners is about exactly the reverse.

ravi_g ji, My reply in the off topic thread.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 4#p1554334

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Dec 2013 00:18

saik, you have to be kidding.

its not BJPs job to make AAP anything.

AAP is already INC lite.