My blog post:
Sonia’s Plan for Andhra Pradesh
What Sonia Gandhi has specialized in is to have an open plan which foresees electoral gains for Congress. Then she lets a couple of conspiracy theories float around to confuse the others, often which shows she may not have everything under control and may have bungled on an issue. Often it looks like her weakest point, and should the opposition jump at it, the opposition could find that they have walked into a trap, and she had all the strings in her hand all the time. Giving out confusing signals is deliberate to confuse the others, and is not a sign of own confusion.
This is what is happening in Andhra Pradesh.
So how has she set up the battlefield in Andhra? Basically it is in a way she simply cannot lose in Andhra Pradesh.
Outwardly it looks like as if in order to preempt Narendra Modi’s declaration of BJP’s support in favor of Telangana in his Hyderabad rally on August 11, 2013, Congress Working Committee unanimously passed a resolution on July 30, 2013 itself recommending the formation of a separate Telangana state. Telangana Movement rejoiced and it seemed Congress had played a masterstroke. It looked as if Congress’s majority in AP Assembly would fall behind Sonia and back the plan despite the discontentment.
However soon Andhra started burning and enraged people from SeemaAndhra started stripping down all memorials to the Nehru-Gandhi family. It looked as if Sonia had miscalculated the anger in SeemaAndhra. But as the protests increased Congressmen from AP started distancing themselves from the position of Central leadership. What is obvious is that the passions in SeemaAndhra for a United Andhra, Samaikyandhra, have been fueled to a full-scale wild fire. The government there also did not seem interested in calming the situation. And apparently the whole Congress leadership in SeemaAndhra are up in arms against Central leadership.
In this mix, Congress let Jagan Mohan Reddy out of jail, who was given a hero’s welcome by the media and people and he took up the cause of United Andhra. People suspect that Congress had a deal with him. Jagan has done good work in bolstering his credentials as one opposed to Congress and their plans to bifurcated Andhra Pradesh. He has been moving around the country, meeting various political leaders of different political parties, to gather support so that the Telangana Bill can be defeated in Parliament.
Even Kiran Kumar Reddy, the CM of Andhra Pradesh, has strongly come out in favor of keeping Andhra Pradesh united, and he plans to use his position as the CM to try to defeat Telangana through various means of sitting on the Bill sent to him by the President and not introducing it in the assembly as long as possible.
In all this passionate politics, both BJP and TDP are lost what to do. BJP favors Telangana but should it be created, Congress and TRS would get all the credit, and BJP would go out empty in the forthcoming elections. Should BJP now seeing the weakened position of Congress in SeemaAndhra decide to jump to the Samaikyandhra position, away from its Telangana position, it risks walking into a trap. Some SeemaAndhra Congressmen have tempted BJP into changing their position promising to join BJP should they do it. This high decibel high passion politics of Andhra Pradesh is not something BJP was ready for.
TDP on the other hand is in itself in a fix and doesn’t know how to respond to raised passions, as it has interests on both sides and have shown some sympathy for Telangana in the past, so it cannot really compete with the clear line of YSRCP and Jagan. Nor does TDP have much strength in either the assembly or Lok Sabha to be in a position to control the politics of the issue.
What people fail to understand is why Sonia really went for this high risk move on Telangana! Do the 17 MPs from Telangana mean so much to Congress, which too it would have to share with TRS, that it is ready to forsake its standing in a region which gave it 19 MPs out of 25?
One cannot understand Sonia’s politics unless one accepts that it is all part of Sonia’s retirement plan and that involves cannibalizing her own Congress party!
Sonia’s plan for Andhra Pradesh is impervious to the outcome of Telangana Bill. It doesn’t matter if Telangana is formed or not. She has ensured that she wins regardless of all that.
Since the time that Sonia came down in favor of Telangana on July 30, 2013 till the next elections or till the Telangana Bill is being processed, Sonia’s profile is being raised in Telangana as the region’s protector deity and temples are being built for her. So as long as Congress can show that it does and did everything possible to give Telangana statehood, Sonia would continue to be revered and Congress would get a good showing. If Telangana Bill fails to pass, may be she may not get the same number of seats from Telangana, but it would still be a good showing.
In SeemaAndhra on the other hand, Sonia has caused an implosion of Congress, but helped to create two new satraps – Jagan Mohan Reddy of YSRCP and Kiran Kumar Reddy, both personally bound to her, Jagan over the Christianist allegiance in addition. Both would come out looking like heroes – Jagan who fought out of power on the streets, and KKR who fought in the assembly. Kiran Kumar Reddy has as yet not left Congress officially but it is only a matter of time. His opposition to Central leadership is one hell of a political acting. The two outfits would see to it that all the Congress leaders who became abhorred due to their connection with Congress get new homes and are rehabilitated with full respect as heroes who did their best to stop the bifurcation.
If Telangana Bill fails as Kiran Kumar Reddy succeeds in stalling it in Assembly, then he would indeed be a hero, and he would get an electoral reward. If Telangana passes, he may still be acknowledged for trying his best but may not get so many votes. In that case the votes would go to Jagan. But the idea is that anti-Telangana votes in SeemaAndhra are divided up between the two – Jagan and KKR. TDP should not get that much.
For BJP noteworthy is that all the Congress SeemaAndhra MPs who are seen protesting against the bifurcation in Indian Parliament, they are either doing only theatrics knowing what the game-plan of Sonia is or they are being told by other handlers what to do, but they themselves don’t know about the game-plan. Either way these MPs are directly under the influence of Sonia Gandhi or under the influence of handlers who are pledged to Sonia Gandhi. It is dangerous for BJP to get tempted by these MPs seeking support for Samaikyandhra.
The beauty of Sonia’s plan is that regardless of whether some Andhra MP or MLA is in favor of Telangana or vociferously against bifurcation, whether some MP or MLA worships Sonia Gandhi or hates her for her recklessness in AP, each and every MP is playing to her tune, because she controls both side of the bifurcation debate and interests. The beauty of Sonia’s plan is that she has stoked the bifurcation debate to such an intensity and heat, that she has pushed BJP and TDP to the margins of this debate.
When the dust settles, regardless of how Telangana Bill goes, Sonia would be fully in control even though Congress would be destroyed in SeemaAndhra. Telangana Congress, YSRCP and KKR Congress would all be directly pledged to Sonia, even though in the case of YSRCP and KKR Congress she would remain the invisible hand. Only in Telangana would she be a prominent and popular face.
This is exactly how she wants to retire and leave India, where she becomes the invisible face behind the power brokers. In fact her politics of divide and rule would pay her cause more handsomely in SeemaAndhra than in Telangana, even though most people in SeemaAndhra would be hating her completely.
Sonia is again using hate towards Congress in a region to drive a shift of the Congress political and financial networks as well as vote-banks in a controlled manner to two other political setups fully owned by her – YSRCP and KKR Congress. For this is she is using bifurcation as an issue. In Delhi she is doing the same thing using the issue of corruption to drive the votes to Aam Aadmi Party.
If there is any Christian missionary activity in India, then one should be fully aware that it is done in cooperation with Sonia Gandhi with her knowledge. This network is what she shares with the Christianist Jagan Mohan Reddy. Then there is a whole history of shared corruption which unites them. This is what provides the assurance. This is what binds the terms of ownership of YSRCP to Sonia Gandhi.
The important thing to remember is that Sonia Gandhi prefers to own disparate smaller regional outfits which she can control from the background rather than own a big bulky Congress party whose general she needs to play.
Even as Sonia Gandhi retires after Lok Sabha elections in 2014 to far away Italy, she is going to leave behind her lieutenants to look after her interests – Arvind Kejriwal, Ajit Jogi, Jagan Mohan Reddy, Kiran Kumar Reddy.
In the case of Andhra Pradesh, she has set up the field in such a manner that both BJP and TDP would suffocate or play a fringe role, shutting them out of the burning political issue. No matter if Telangana Bill passes or not, she retains full control.
If one is willing to embrace the thought that Sonia Gandhi has no compunctions in cannibalizing Congress to feed her new hounds, then her plans are quite understandable. Sonia Gandhi’s interests and those of Congress are not the same.
It is for BJP and TDP to think of ways to break this Chakravyuh! The best strategy is to lay this plan of divide and rule open to the people, to expose it. BJP and TDP should expose Jagan Mohan Reddy and Kiran Kumar Reddy for what they are: as Sonia’s loyalists.
And somebody please give Jagan Mohan Reddy and Kiran Kumar Reddy best actor awards!
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Biju Janata Dal's 14 MPs will support the motion when the admission of the motion is considered. 