Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 13 Dec 2013 21:26

Ashok Saar,

Not sufficiently gyaani for that.

But this much can be said - BJP with MDMK, and Kongu MK will have a fighting chance in Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar, Coimbatore. Am not sure about Ramanathapuram (2009 performance a function of Thirunavukkarasar's personal clout in parts of that constituency). For now difficult to see actual wins anywhere else. They can poll some 10-20% votes, though.

Difficult to see positive impact of PMK on that alliance.

Political gossip magazines say intelligence reports point to 18-20 seats for ADMK.

Congress really has lost the ability to contribute to any party's win there. Kanyakumari, where they have a bit of a base (RoL?) will be determined by other factors (religion of the candidates, whether ADMK fights directly or lets CPM fight etc.). Today it is therefore a drag in any alliance.

With DMDK, DMK can give a fair fight. Its own traditional vote base is still intact.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Dec 2013 21:48

the mistake bjp is making is unclear conditions in supporting AAP gov forming.. bjp should be more clairvoyant in their statements and supporting arguments.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Dec 2013 21:58

nageshks wrote: Their claim is they have an independent base in coastal TN now. Is there anything you know that would confirm or refute it?

could be..don't know..i am not a south TN expert.

i do know that congress is probably a net vote loss in many constituencies. meaning, you will lose more votes because congress is allied with you than if you just go it alone.

dmk and congress are like the last two people in the bar waiting for the other person to make the first move, so that they don't appear despo themselves.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 13 Dec 2013 21:59

Best thing is if

AIADMK+CPI-M and
BJP+MDMK+PMK+DMDK

and everywhere where the BJP has a chance, AIADMK lets CPI-M fight the seat. That way AIADMK need not come into a direct conflict with BJP.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 13 Dec 2013 22:00

ravi_g wrote:
chaanakya wrote:My my , Congis have written letter to LG of Delhi expressing support to AAP prior to KA meeting him tomorrow. Great move. LG can ask AK to form Govt and Ak has not even asked support from Congis.

VV should have been in the new thread by Kapilmama. Oxygen mein duba duba ke rakenge. Oxygen marne nahi dega, doo jeene nahi dega.

Oh
Made my day

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Dec 2013 22:04

Malayappan wrote:With DMDK, DMK can give a fair fight. Its own traditional vote base is still intact.

maybe in a few seats in south. but i wonder if DMDK wants to ally with DMK now, knowing that it will only hurt them in the next assy elections. DMDK is not interested in national politics and IMO would be better off protecting its base for assembly elections instead of hurting prospects by allying with DMK..but then next assy elections is couple of years away..

Our Rahul Gandhi actually called vijaykanth to wish the latter on his birthday. I would really love to hear that conversation or konbherjajion as captain would say it.

Added later:

Rahul : happy birthday captain
captain: err..same to you.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 13 Dec 2013 22:07

RajeshA wrote:Best thing is if

AIADMK+CPI-M and
BJP+MDMK+PMK+DMDK

and everywhere where the BJP has a chance, AIADMK lets CPI-M fight the seat. That way AIADMK need not come into a direct conflict with BJP.

wont happen, i really doubt JJ will be happy seeing BJP in TN, esp with modi wave all over the place, she will loose.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 13 Dec 2013 22:21

krishnan wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Best thing is if

AIADMK+CPI-M and
BJP+MDMK+PMK+DMDK

and everywhere where the BJP has a chance, AIADMK lets CPI-M fight the seat. That way AIADMK need not come into a direct conflict with BJP.
wont happen, i really doubt JJ will be happy seeing BJP in TN, esp with modi wave all over the place, she will loose.

This is what I am saying. Why would Amma allow the rise of BJP in TN? BJP's rise in TN means her own downfall. Why would she nurture such soosidal tendencies? And after a bitter fight with BJP, why would she support NDA during govt. formation? This is what I am trying to understand from the gurus here.

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 13 Dec 2013 22:21

Malayappans analysis is probably close to reality except dmk with dmdk. Congress is as good as dead n TN without an alliance with dmk.

Gus
On Amma, I was also hoping that she becomes realistic but with her no one knows what she is upto. Whether or not she is interested there seems a cotorie that is prodding her.

Nagesh s ji
On captain he started as an alternative to both dmk and admk but after a kejrival like debut has gone dowhill due to non stop booze. Had a lot of fan following due to his work in the film industry. He was considered a doer as against the talker rajini. Took over the admin of film association and recovered it from bankruptcy. During kargil conducted shows and collected funds for the jawans.His movies showcased cross border terrorism. A grounded nationalist than a pure tamil chauvanist. However sad to see him go down hill and now compared with RaGa for nomination to comedy central. His party contested in Delhi state election as well

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 13 Dec 2013 22:26

i hope some new face emerges in TN. either its amma or thatha

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 13 Dec 2013 22:38

@Ashok Sarraff
Amma may not like BJP growing in TN but at this point, she perhaps does not see them as a threat in TN and hence may go soft/ignore them during election. It will be easier for her that way to support NDA if they are close to forming the Govt. or places her as a compromise candidate of a 4th front assuming that she still believes the wild dream coming true as being put up by her cotorie. Either way, she wants to maximize the seats to ensure that she has maximum leverage at the center either way

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 Dec 2013 23:20

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 13 Dec 2013 23:50

^^ People should share this message on Facebook or something..especially the ones in Delhi

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Dec 2013 23:52

Sridhar K wrote:@Ashok Sarraff
Amma may not like BJP growing in TN but at this point, she perhaps does not see them as a threat in TN and hence may go soft/ignore them during election. It will be easier for her that way to support NDA if they are close to forming the Govt. or places her as a compromise candidate of a 4th front assuming that she still believes the wild dream coming true as being put up by her cotorie. Either way, she wants to maximize the seats to ensure that she has maximum leverage at the center either way

Everything you say is true BUT...She is also seeing what is happening to Nitish. NK thought he could be smart and retain his vote bank and was decimated. Even though overtime his party would've been eroded, he could have gotten a cabinet position and other perks which he is now going to miss out on. He is going to lose everything.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 14 Dec 2013 00:15

Rahul M ji,
Will tweet the above pic

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 14 Dec 2013 01:04

Chandragupta wrote:Why is the good General wasting his time with idiots like AH & AK? He should join BJP and contest from Haryana.

Shame on you man! Sitting in comfort of your home calling a 70 year old man idiot, who is on hunger strike for 4 days to fight evil of corruption. What have u done for the country that earns you right to call anna and even ak idiots. I can see the idiot and its neither of them.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 14 Dec 2013 02:07

^^ That question can be asked of everyone. Going by your mode of evaluation, noone has a right to an opinion unless they do something. Sorry to burst your bubble but he has his opinion and it is just as right as AK or AH or anyone else. I suggest you tone down your holier-than-thou attitude.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Dec 2013 02:27

Nitish Ka Bappu Come Back
Indian politician Laloo Prasad Yadav freed on bail
( Crucial Timing : Psychoolars Desperation)

Former Indian railways minister Laloo Prasad Yadav, who is serving a five year sentence in the notorious "fodder scam" case, has been freed on bail.But he remains disqualified from parliament and cannot contest elections, the Supreme Court has ruled.Yadav was jailed in October after being found guilty of embezzling state funds intended to buy food for cattle while he was Bihar state chief minister.On Friday, the Supreme Court said since 37 other people convicted in the case had been freed on bail, there was no reason to keep Yadav in jail.Yadav is one of India's most colourful politicians. He leads the regional Rashtriya Janata Dal party in Bihar and has long been an ally of India's Congress party-led coalition government in Delhi.He resigned as chief minister of Bihar after the allegations of corruption arose. His wife Rabri Devi was installed in his place.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 14 Dec 2013 03:08

Many Nitin party fellows must be looking to jumpnto bjp. Particularly as NM wave becomes visible to them. If nikamma fails, which he is most likely, jdu will split and state govt will fall. We may be looking at Bihar Assembly elections in later part of 2014.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Dec 2013 03:18

Narayana Rao wrote:Many Nitin party fellows must be looking to jumpnto bjp. Particularly as NM wave becomes visible to them. If nikamma fails, which he is most likely, jdu will split and state govt will fall. We may be looking at Bihar Assembly elections in later part of 2014.

Read somewhere on twitter that around 6 JD-U MPs are trying to get into the good books of BJP.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 14 Dec 2013 03:33

RoyG wrote: Everything you say is true BUT...She is also seeing what is happening to Nitish. NK thought he could be smart and retain his vote bank and was decimated. Even though overtime his party would've been eroded, he could have gotten a cabinet position and other perks which he is now going to miss out on. He is going to lose everything.

When did Nikumma get decimated. No elections were held in Bihar since May.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 14 Dec 2013 03:40

chetak wrote:Amma is a shubchintak onlee.
She will not go against the BJP overtly. At worst she may remain benign

Why is she soft on killers of Hindu Munani, BJP and other Dharmic groups. Muslim vote is with DMK anyway. I think she won't hesitate to hedge her bets with turd or froth front. BJP should assume the worst and look for pakka alliances. Just like BSY was supposed to be done deal but he is taking his own sweet time, better not to rely on fickle minded people.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 14 Dec 2013 04:50

Laloo+INC is still a pretty good combo in Bihar.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Dec 2013 04:50

best bet against amma is rajnikanth.. if he can join bjp, then *onlee lord raghavendra onlee* can help amma next.

both modi and rajni has similarities in their background.. chaiwala vs ticketwala.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2013 04:54

Santosh wrote:
chetak wrote:Amma is a shubchintak onlee.
She will not go against the BJP overtly. At worst she may remain benign
Why is she soft on killers of Hindu Munani, BJP and other Dharmic groups. Muslim vote is with DMK anyway. I think she won't hesitate to hedge her bets with turd or froth front. BJP should assume the worst and look for pakka alliances. Just like BSY was supposed to be done deal but he is taking his own sweet time, better not to rely on fickle minded people.

It's the numbers of the third largest majority that seems to be bothering her not the second largest

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 Dec 2013 05:10

it bjp can get 10 seats in TN.. it is a revolution!

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 14 Dec 2013 05:36

^10 seats in TN for bjp.... maybe municipal counciller seats perhaps.... don't see it happening either in the assembly or in the LS polls. However, 4-5 LS seats could well be the outer limits of what the BJP can carry in TN.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 14 Dec 2013 05:41

Shonu wrote:^^ That question can be asked of everyone. Going by your mode of evaluation, noone has a right to an opinion unless they do something. Sorry to burst your bubble but he has his opinion and it is just as right as AK or AH or anyone else. I suggest you tone down your holier-than-thou attitude.

How about if i have an opinion about you? Should i state it in the way it pleases me or should i follow indic, dharmic and vadik values of our great civilization? Decorum must be maintained in discussions or they are nothing but vulgar shouting matches.

People are dishing out uncharitable labels and names for all but purest of pure of bhagwa brigade. I support right wing nationalistic politics too and been doing that here at BRF for over a decade without needing to belittle others.
If you read this (and modi) thread one gets a feeling that except for RSS everyone else in India is paid for, idiotic traitor. This is not correct, there are good and bad ppl on either side of the divide.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2013 05:50

SaiK wrote:it bjp can get 10 seats in TN.. it is a revolution!

At best it may, just may be one or two onlee

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Dec 2013 06:38

Hari Seldon et al, Delhi is still UT. Hence elections can be hel after one year in case of President's rule. Congress would like to decouple from General Elections.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 Dec 2013 06:51

Hari Seldon wrote:^10 seats in TN for bjp.... maybe municipal counciller seats perhaps.... don't see it happening either in the assembly or in the LS polls. However, 4-5 LS seats could well be the outer limits of what the BJP can carry in TN.

they have good chances of doing it , they need to put more effort and try. modi can be assured of most of educated/bizz/college people voting for him.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Dec 2013 06:52

chaanakya wrote:My my , Congis have written letter to LG of Delhi expressing support to AAP prior to KA meeting him tomorrow. Great move. LG can ask AK to form Govt and Ak has not even asked support from Congis.

If so, Congis may have torpedoed AAP.

Wait let this not be true. Antijinx ON

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Dec 2013 06:54

Gus wrote:
Malayappan wrote:With DMDK, DMK can give a fair fight. Its own traditional vote base is still intact.
maybe in a few seats in south. but i wonder if DMDK wants to ally with DMK now, knowing that it will only hurt them in the next assy elections. DMDK is not interested in national politics and IMO would be better off protecting its base for assembly elections instead of hurting prospects by allying with DMK..but then next assy elections is couple of years away..

Our Rahul Gandhi actually called vijaykanth to wish the latter on his birthday. I would really love to hear that conversation or konbherjajion as captain would say it.

Added later:

Rahul : happy birthday captain
captain: err..same to you.

http://www.theunrealtimes.com/2013/12/0 ... plit-feat/

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 14 Dec 2013 06:56

krishnan wrote: they have good chances of doing it , they need to put more effort and try. modi can be assured of most of educated/bizz/college people voting for him.

This is probably my nostalgia speaking (I grew up, for a time, in Saidapet), but I would really like for the BJP to win Chennai South. This is the educated folks' constituency in TN, and if they want, they may be able to make Modi win. Is there any chance of this happening?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Dec 2013 07:00

Katare wrote:People are dishing out uncharitable labels and names for all but purest of pure of bhagwa brigade.

What is "bhagwa brigade"?

I support right wing nationalistic politics too and been doing that here at BRF for over a decade without needing to belittle others.

[/quote]

As I recall you have been a consistent INC, MMS, PC supporter. They are center left, not center right let alone right wing.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 Dec 2013 07:03

Sridhar K wrote:Nagesh s ji
On captain he started as an alternative to both dmk and admk but after a kejrival like debut has gone dowhill due to non stop booze. Had a lot of fan following due to his work in the film industry. He was considered a doer as against the talker rajini. Took over the admin of film association and recovered it from bankruptcy. During kargil conducted shows and collected funds for the jawans.His movies showcased cross border terrorism. A grounded nationalist than a pure tamil chauvanist. However sad to see him go down hill and now compared with RaGa for nomination to comedy central. His party contested in Delhi state election as well

Don't know much about Captain apart from net comedy. So honest guy but alchohol problem and hence little credibility? What are his views on economic and social issues (hopefully not another AIT dood?) He seems to be a favorite target of satire websites based on his english (see above), which actually means that folks think him to be funny (and hence the more conventional satire as versus the in-good-humor but still respectful stuff directed at Rajni)

Lots of questions, since i dont know much about TN.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 14 Dec 2013 07:13

IMO the Shanti Bhushan fake op-ed saga is interesting. Clearly the perps must have known it would be detected in no time. The only explanation is that it was the work of people wanting to discredit the contents of the op-ed (which were in fact quite reasonable).

It does show that there are some very seasoned psy-ops professionals managing the projection of the AAP as a credible force for 2014. AAP folks themselves may not be behind it.

As regards the Delhi results, the final EVM tally was certainly not predicted by most of the opinion polls. BJP won its seats by strong margins and AAP by slim ones (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... z2nPYBQxLo)

Other straws in the wind: Congress wonders how onion prices came down the day after polling - http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... ion-prices
Sheela Dixit was also complaining about lack of support. It may seem puzzling but a loss for Cong in Delhi was necessary for the larger goal of building AAP credibility.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Dec 2013 07:29

Coupled with AAP not ready to take CM'ship and instead talking about national ambitions.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 14 Dec 2013 07:55

Katare wrote:shame on you man! Sitting in comfort of your home calling a 70 year old man idiot, who is on hunger strike for 4 days to fight evil of corruption. What have u done for the country that earns you right to call anna and even ak idiots. I can see the idiot and its neither of them.

Neither Anna nor AK are idiots. They are very very cunning crooks. They are sharp, intelligent, focus, but both are anti-nationals.

Proof? Pls read Janlokpal-draft. The draft alone proves it. The draft gives all control over Indian executives and even MPs in the hands of 11 Janlokpals. So MNC-owners' task for taking over and finishing left over nationalists in Indian admin becomes simple. All MNC-owners need to do is to plant 11 of their agents as Janlokpals or buy them after they become Janlokpals. The whole Janlokpal-draft was tailored to facilitate MNC-owners and Missionaries. And in return, MNC-owners have AH\Anna what they wanted --- publicity, fame and possibly position (for AK). Anna is media hungry.

Basically, Anna\AK are like Duratma Gandhi. Duratma Gandhi sold out to British for same deal that Duratma Gandhi would campaign for proposals that would favor British interests and in return British would (1)pay for his Ashrams via Birla, Tata, Dalmia, Baja etc (2) buy him media space in ToI etc so that Duratma becomes no. 1 leader in India.

Details are in chap-45 of http://rahulmehta.com/301.htm

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 14 Dec 2013 08:06

Karan M wrote:If so, Congis may have torpedoed AAP.
Wait let this not be true. Antijinx ON

Everyone knows that AAP won't bite because a) they are fake and cannot fulfill lofty promises b) they don't want to be seen with Congi as it will puncture their anti-corruption facade. So it is just external posturing to give impression that AAP is genuinely against CongI. At this point, CongI main agenda seems to be to stop BJP at all cost. In Delhi they came 3rd but stopped a BJP goverment. In LokSabha they will come 2nd and but still want stop BJP government. Nationalist efforts should be to discredit PAAP in Social Media, news sites, where ever based on 12 points mentioned in previous page. PAAP facade needs to be ruthlessly destroyed.