Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Dec 2013 20:57

ramana wrote:Most likely she was collecting hafta without giving cut to the First Family.

Since when did they care for any industry sheths?

election funding time

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Dec 2013 21:56

MMS went to greet ABV on his birthday today
https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 8277_n.jpg

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 25 Dec 2013 22:04

SwamyG wrote:Rahul M you forgot to use the word 'secular' in your brief speech. Ducks for cover.

you don't duck for cover unless ur coward.

. @EOD, it is equation balancing. currently the equation is one sided and not balanced. an economy that is based on checks and balances wins at the end. this is how advanced countries have done it.. there is a pattern already established, plus the added benefit of study materials from their failures.

now, if modi has no data in front of him.. or ignores it, then he has blunderd a very big oppty. the numbers and quantity is large, but the quality aspects and things to be done for achieving is paltry. if you step into visionary boots, you may understand. if not, you will be ducking for cover through out.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2013 02:56

Singha wrote:MMS went to greet ABV on his birthday today
https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 8277_n.jpg

Wonder why he remembered ABV's birthday now so late in his tenure?

Maybe he wants protection from future investigations.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Dec 2013 03:02

what can ABV do if Modi produces the evidences of scandals?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Dec 2013 03:20

ramana wrote:
Singha wrote:MMS went to greet ABV on his birthday today
https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 8277_n.jpg
Wonder why he remembered ABV's birthday now so late in his tenure?

Maybe he wants protection from future investigations.

Rumors are floating on twitter that Rahul Gandhi would not only be made PM candidate in January but PM itself, and for that Dr. Manmohan Singh may have to step down, and not only step down but he would be the bakra on Bakra Eid!

The thinking seems to be that post-2014 chances look very dim for Dynasty, so why not send one last Gandhi to PMO and build his image as India's PM, ruler over 1.25 billion people. It may also help him to get rid of 'Shehzada' taunt. Though can't imagine him winning a vote of confidence in Parliament.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 26 Dec 2013 03:33

^^I was thinking the same too. Probably his time is up and he wanted to meet ABV and say that his mandate of running the congress to the ground is complete

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Dec 2013 03:44

and mama-lini should think twice.. at least there is no smell emanating from hugger-mugger proxy compared when we can imagine what is ought to come from pappu soliloquys.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Dec 2013 05:12

ramana wrote: Wonder why he remembered ABV's birthday now so late in his tenure?

Maybe he wants protection from future investigations.

no. just a part of the conparty strategy of glorifying every bjp leader except modi, so that people would suddenly realise "oh my god, modi is so bad compared to these guys"..or something like that.

this is worse than rahul gandhi wishing birthday for vijaykant. at least there is a remote prospect of roping in dmdk in return for that.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Dec 2013 05:40

Gus wrote: this is worse than rahul gandhi wishing birthday for vijaykant. at least there is a remote prospect of roping in dmdk in return for that.

Gus saar - that can happen only when Vijaykant makes a decision based on Dutch courage.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 26 Dec 2013 05:41

Gus wrote:
ramana wrote: Wonder why he remembered ABV's birthday now so late in his tenure?

Maybe he wants protection from future investigations.
no. just a part of the conparty strategy of glorifying every bjp leader except modi, so that people would suddenly realise "oh my god, modi is so bad compared to these guys"..or something like that.

this is worse than rahul gandhi wishing birthday for vijaykant. at least there is a remote prospect of roping in dmdk in return for that.

As Modi storms into India's election, a quiet alternative emerges

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Dec 2013 06:06

^ classic. says all the conparty talking points.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Dec 2013 06:10

Slide showing all seats that BJP has won at least once so far... the sheer enormity of what is being asked of the cadre and Modi becomes clear....

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 26 Dec 2013 06:51

^Translation please

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Dec 2013 06:59

hanumadu wrote:^^I was thinking the same too. Probably his time is up and he wanted to meet ABV and say that his mandate of running the congress to the ground is complete

thats what I thought so too. he looks like a loyal Shishya now reporting back to his incapacitated Guru about mission accomplished

history will tell us the truth of what dark forces this man vanquished just as history has been much kinder to one PVN Rao...remember in his day used to be the butt of jokes in the media for saying nothing on controversial issues....cartoons were published with a locked zipper for a mouth.
http://www.sridar.com/wp-content/upload ... 059711.jpg

MMS used to report to PVN and they must go back a long way..here he is at the funeral
http://www.thenational.ae/storyimage/AB ... on=default

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Dec 2013 07:01

they must get a & b, and focus on c and d. if they can get >50% of d, they they are talking long term prospects.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 26 Dec 2013 07:03

RajeshA wrote:...

Rumors are floating on twitter that Rahul Gandhi would not only be made PM candidate in January but PM itself, and for that Dr. Manmohan Singh may have to step down, and not only step down but he would be the bakra on Bakra Eid!

The thinking seems to be that post-2014 chances look very dim for Dynasty, so why not send one last Gandhi to PMO and build his image as India's PM, ruler over 1.25 billion people. It may also help him to get rid of 'Shehzada' taunt. Though can't imagine him winning a vote of confidence in Parliament.

One may recall that LKA/SS were against NM as PM face. The INC-owned press went into overdrive about BJP's blunder in using a 'face' before the assembly polls.

Fact is, today you need to connect with a face and a single message. NaMo has done it well: "Its governance and development stupid!".

Also, the idea of the 10 crore/100 million @INR 10 -1000 is brilliant. It not only raises money and sidelines the 'big guys', but also gets people 'invested enough to vote. It's like having a dog in the fight.

Not unlike Obama's internet fund raising effort which raised ~$500MM +

INC and the other parties are still trapped in smoke filled rooms.

Hey!, 366 is not that distant a dream.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Dec 2013 08:08

I don't know all about you guys! I am giving up on 2014. I think the conspiracy of Kujli is going to hit India badly. I have immense trust in naivety of Indians. I think just like we fell for Weepy Singhs, Laloos, Mulyams, a lot of stupid people are already falling or Kujli. Kujli's message is simple. CONGis are corrupt. BJP are corrupt. The media is broadcasting that message every day 24x7

I think we need to brainstorm how BJP can fight and get over the naivety of Indians.

We need to emphasize on Growth, Development, Jobs. Kujli never talks about these issues. Corruption and free stuff.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 26 Dec 2013 08:10

^ +1000000. Modi should not waste his time with Shehzada/Sonia/Cong as they are already dead. He should use every opportunity he gets to drive home the point that Kejri is only going to waste another five years like MMS.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Dec 2013 08:15

Hari Seldon wrote:Slide showing all seats that BJP has won at least once so far... the sheer enormity of what is being asked of the cadre and Modi becomes clear....

Is it in a single election, Hari-ji? Otherwise, there are a few problems with it.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Dec 2013 08:22

I have to agree on the aap front.. it is better modi shows something on the kujli front. This is going to enrode into replacing a corrupt system with people who assume corruption and legalize it via documented forms of corruptions.

aam will have no idea how kala-angrez (the evil forces) takes dynasty name to different levels of proxy methods to continue to do the same thing in different terms.. and subduing India growth and advancement for ever.

the real challenge imho could be the hidden kujli wala aided by the ever dork rising media.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 26 Dec 2013 08:41

Congress plan is very simple.

1. Use Khujliwal to make sure that BJP loses in large metro/ultra urban areas by either allowing AAP to win or just cut BJP votes selectively creating a congress win
2. Use behenji alliance to destroy BJP in punjab, UP and some seats in MP, Raj and Haryana.
3. Make sure, MNS never goes for the maha alliance in Maharashtra
4. Run a high shrill media campaign to preempt any chance of bringing back Yeddy into BJP
5. Play the game smartly in Jharkhand to tie BJP down to less than 5 seats.
6. Ally with Lalu in Bihar (dont ever underestimate this alliance, Yadavs are seething with anger, The M-Y combo will be very tuf to beat even with a JDU alliance, so BJP on its own getting more than 10 seats is a ruf proposition).
7. Withdraw support to AAP before the LS to create a huge sympathy for them and help them maximize seats in the NCR area (Delhi, Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad)
8. Give Jat reservation to sweep western UP and Haryana. I dont buy this theory that Jats are seething with anger against sickular parties and will vote BJP.

Congress has the ability to pull all these off before the LS.

So what is the best number BJP can pull of under these cirsumstances
1. J&K - 1
2. HP - 2
3. Uttaranchal - 4
4. Punjab - 1
5. Haryana - 0
6. Delhi - 2
7. UP - 20
8. Bihar - 10
9. Jharkhand - 4
10. Assam - 3
11. WB, NE, Orissa, AP, TN, Kerala - 0
12. Goa - 1
13. UT's - 3
14. Karnataka (without Yeddy) - 5
15. Maha (without grand alliance) - 13
16. Gujarat - 22
17. MP - 26
18. Chattisgarh - 7
19. Rajasthan - 24

Totals to 148. If I cut out 3-4 seats from this list where AAP can cut BJP votes in cities like bokaro, ranchi, jamshedpur, kanpur, lucknow, parts of Mumbai, BJP will most likely end up with 145 seats.

So what will Congress get

1. J&K - 1
2. HP - 2
3. Uttaranchal - 1
4. Punjab - 7
5. Haryana - 0
6. Delhi - 0
7. UP - 15
8. Bihar - 2
9. Jharkhand - 5
10. Assam - 9
11. WB - 3
12. Goa - 1
13. UT's - 2
14. Karnataka - 20
15. Maha (without grand alliance) - 10
16. Gujarat - 4
17. MP - 3
18. Chattisgarh - 4
19. Rajasthan - 1
20. NE - 5
21. Orissa - 5
22. AP - 10
23. TN - 0
24. Kerala - 7

So Congress romps to 117.

Both BJP and Congress combined get approx 262 seats in this scenario. Due to contradictions within the other parties a 3rd front will not be able to cobble 272 of the available 282. But a 3rd front type govt supported externally by congress is always possible.

I see only items 3 and 5 which I have bolded as possible items that BJP can address without congress interference or media trouble. Even in that Maharashtra will be tricky as any overt alliance with MNS will doom bjp in bihar.

BJP's best bet is somehow grab 20 more seats to reach 165. At that stage they stand some chance of forming govt.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Dec 2013 09:11

u know what? If PAIDMEDIA, CONs can fool enough people to bring an unstable coalition to STOP Modi, BJP can stay aside to let AK and CONs play the Delhi game in Parliament too. When the combo fails, BJP will come with complete majority

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Dec 2013 09:41

No. Every battle should be won for a defeat will finish you off. So the BJP should study the lessons of Delhi elections and counter them nationwide.

Many seats in Delhi were lost by small margins. They should have put there kitchen parlor games aside and nominate Dr Harsh Vardhan early on. The delay did impact the final outcome.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 26 Dec 2013 09:53

The later should ideally be considered later. Right now its GE-14 and that is where the full concentration should be. Presuming that despite all the campaigning, the Bichitra Phal is not to BJP's liking, even then they would end up making the best case for themselves.

The opponent is however is a guerrilla tactician, so a change in tactics may be required.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 26 Dec 2013 09:58

AP - 10, KTK - 20 and UP - 15 seem difficult for kongis.
I would say AP - 5(MAX), KTK - 10 and UP - 5. KTK voted on anti-incumbency in assembly. The same trend, I think, will continue in parliament elections. So, KTK voted against incumbent govt at assembly level(which happened to be BJP) and they will vote against incumbent govt in parliamentary elections(which happens to be kangrez).

Since NaMo will be the PM candidate, getting any seats from Guj will be very difficult. I would say Guj zero. Whatever the local differences, gujjus will like to see a gujju as the PM just as sikhs voted for Manmohan.

That puts, the tally at 88 (based on adjustments to the predictions by Muraliravi saar).

And this is only based on specific cases. If the overall anti-kongi mood in the dhesh is taken into account due to inflation, corruption and perception of failure on all governance issues, that may cost the kongis another 10 seats in the rest of the country. The anti-kongi mood against the sarkaar is so strong that it tainted even the kongi assembly elections.

That would put the kongi tally less than 80. If that happens, kongis are finished regardless of BJP. Eyetalians will fly away to italia... and each kongi will establish his own local version of kongi.

----
BTW, why didn't Fordriwal go for a re-election? There was a theory that some people wanted to vote for Fordriwal but did not vote for them because they did not expect him to do so well. Now, in a re-election scenario, even those votes will flock to fordriwal, they said. So, lotus would lose further and fordriwal was supposed to emerge will full mandate. Then, why didn't fordriwal go for elections?

The reason, it seems, is simple. In many places, fordriwal's victories have been slender. The chances of his MLAs retaining those places is very slim. So, those MLAs opposed the re-election plan tooth and nail.

This in itself shows that it is difficult for Fordriwal to repeat his performance even in dilli. Thats why, before going for another election, he has to do all this drama. But of course, he ends up in alliance with kongis. What will be the reaction of people who voted to Fordriwal because they wanted to punish the kongis? Hardcore fans of fordriwal will be fine. What about others? Will they re-vote for him whenever the elections are held again? What is the guarantee that he will not allow the kongis to come back to power from backdoor again? The same question will be raised in parliament elections also? I think the only advantage of fordriwal is media. But, that was always the strength of kongis as well. Now, kongis have reached a situation where no amount of propaganda is going to save them. So, instead of trying to decorate a corpse, the media will be used to decorate fordriwal. Frankly, this seems like a delusion to me. The chances of Fordriwal doing a damage to lotus and stopping it are miniscule.

Most urban young voters who are enthused by Fordriwal, are also enthused by NaMo. Infact, NaMo seems to be a bigger icon than fordriwal among them. So, I don't see Fordriwal denting NaMo. I think NaMo will take on Fordriwal soon(with indirect digs and direct questions), but I don't see Fordriwal being such a big issue. Many of the other kongi B-teams are much bigger threat.

----
There were riots in UP. In such a scenario, it will be us vs them. Kongis have so far sided with one side. The other side is not going to vote for them. 'Secularism' is ignored as long as its all going smoothly. But, such blatant partisanship during and post-riots will not be appreciated.
Muzzfarnagar riots are not the only riots in UP. From the time, new sarkaar has taken over, there have been riots in UP for some time now. This will have impact. Thats why SaPa is gone. Lotus will gain in such a scenario. I expect lotus(perhaps, NaMo himself) to raise the issue of Ram Mandhir in the final leg of elections to seal the deal of us vs them.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Dec 2013 10:13

I am getting the feeling that aap will seriously dent bjp's urban vote all over the country. a large number of even nationalist people have bought into the bjp=cong thing and strongly support aap. the modi wave has been nullified by constant media barrage and has in effect peaked. bjp workers at all levels will have to work their a$$ off to prevent it and I see no sign of that happening. my guesstimate will be a 3rd front with cong support.

sum · Post by **sum** » 26 Dec 2013 10:17

^^ +100

Thats what even i have been noticing among all my nearby junta. Even earlier hardcore pro-Modi folks ( or even anti-INC who were slowly turning pro-BJP) are now firmly under the AAP bandwagon

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 26 Dec 2013 10:23

Rahul M wrote:I am getting the feeling that aap will seriously dent bjp's urban vote all over the country. a large number of even nationalist people have bought into the bjp=cong thing and strongly support aap. the modi wave has been nullified by constant media barrage and has in effect peaked. bjp workers at all levels will have to work their a$$ off to prevent it and I see no sign of that happening. my guesstimate will be a 3rd front with cong support.

Kongi == lotus is alright. But, saar, the question will be who will gain due to anti-kongi mood: Fordri or NaMo. I think when Fordri is pitted against NaMo, NaMo wins comprehensively in popularity(even among the urban crowd).

But, yes, there always will be support to anyone who is seen as an outsider who will clean up the political system. Both NaMo and Fordri are riding the same perception. Both are seen as outsiders who will clean up the system. But it seems to me that Fordri's credentials will get tainted due to alliance with kongis. It will slowly sink in to his supporter base also.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 26 Dec 2013 10:25

SaPa did a BJP = = Congress on Muzzafarnagar riots. Mullah-e-yum claims these parties are exhorting people to stay put in the relief camps. The TV devta shows only muslims in these camps and I wonder how much of a handle BJP would have on them. BJP may be intimidating to them but why would they listen to BJP to stay put and seek more compensation.

While this is the same line of attack that the AAP uses, but somehow Mullah-e-yum is feeling besieged. The cynicism is certainly wrong if that is used to keep people in difficult conditions in relief camps but WT_ stops SaPa from making better arrangements within the relief camps. One Muslim neta was quite critical of it all.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Dec 2013 10:27

even if modi>kejri the latter takes away a significant chunk of votes. the media has been very soft on kejri on the cong alliance, so it has minimal effect.

rajeshkathiriya · Post by **rajeshkathiriya** » 26 Dec 2013 10:36

I am seeing Eco. Time. Mumbai edition regularly, Space for Kejriwal is increased all of sudden after Delhi election.
Where there is no space for Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh results.

apoorv · Post by **apoorv** » 26 Dec 2013 10:39

AAP will dent congis more. Their game is going to backfire.

1) Many AAP supports are also Modi supporters.
2) AAP attracts the Congi votebank more than BJP. BJP core voters want their party to comeback in power after 10 years. Congi votebank is disillusioned with their party and may vote for next best option - AAP rather than BJP.
3) It will be urban phenomenon and will be limited to Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore. Even in Delhi if we count votes in parliamentary constituencies BJP has won 5 in Delhi and AAP 2. Congies have been blanked. In absense of AAP congies might have won a couple of seats.
4) Volunteers came from all over the country and donated from all over the country to AAP for Delhi elections. AAP may get some more volunteers for GE but it will fall well short to have any effect in a lot of tier 2 cities.
5) BJP and all regional parties have their votebanks due to a committment to a particular segment - be it Hindutva or castes. Only congies have a floating vote back with majority of voters still voting for them because their father, grand father etc. have been voting for Congress. Youth from such families will desert their party before it will desert any other.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 26 Dec 2013 10:56

IMHO the first time voters in urban centers are very easily swayed by "everyone in politics is bad only" logic and very guileble in voting like a sheep for AAP as party which is anti-establishment. The AAP's spread is largely thanks to media and IMHO a few well deliverd live debate ala presidential debate is what desi media will try for in its search for maximum TRP. A well researched and contrasting paper from BJP camp on "Ideas for India" will go long way in helping the first time voters to be better informed. I hope that proper attention to details is being provided by the BJP war room and new style of fighting election where TV debates between "two contrasting ideas of India" swing atleast the urban vote share is understood.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 26 Dec 2013 10:57

NaMo's silence on Kejri and AAP is intriguing .. doesn't want to give them undue attention?
The moment Modi speaks of them .. they will promote to national players .. in perception atleast?

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 26 Dec 2013 11:01

AAP is miles away from the bulk of rural votes of India .. for now that is.
As far as 2014 is concerned, we can only expect them to spoil BJP's chances at 5-10 seat at best.

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 26 Dec 2013 11:07

Namo is waiting for a oppertune moment to strike. In the coming days as more and more kong supporters jump onto the AAP bandwagon , the true colours would be evident. Probably he would strike them just before elections. In mumbai rally he pre-empted NOTA by calling for vote for india.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 26 Dec 2013 11:16

Arun Shourie has been advising Modi. These are some quick policy decisions that will be made if Modi occupies the PM chair.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Dec 2013 11:17

I was wondering where such a sharp mind had vanished. Good to see he is active in shadows.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 26 Dec 2013 11:37

There is an urgent need for a clear and well articulated presentation of "Right of Centre" Idea for India from modi camp to ween away and contrast the same from current socialist/communist provide free doles and handouts to buy votes even if its done by non-corrupt governemnt! The slow poision of socialisam and the evil menifistation of same in India as naxal movements / communisam / pseudo-secularisam etc needs to be pointed out for evil that it is. IMHO the real challange is in how to prevent the paid media and usual suspects to start screaing from roof top that modi is anti-poor and so far i believe modi has done a good job is contrasting his dvelopment for all plank with poverty for all as practised by congis. His new challange is to make his case very clear to young first time voters by contrasting it effectively from AAP plank of same failed socialisam in new white washed garb.