Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 29 Dec 2013 11:12

AAP has indulged in vote bank politics to reach where it is. Plus inexperience in dealing with terrorism and international disputes like Kashmir itch of napakis.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 29 Dec 2013 11:43

ramana wrote:I told RamaY that JohneeG is a treasure for BRF.

Ramana garu, thats embarrassing...

When will RamaY saar return from his vanvaas. Miss his posts. They act as triggers for interesting explorations.

Singha wrote:kumar vishwas has not been allocated a portfolio . looks like he will be retained as the ahmed patel of the AAP for back office work maybe.

It seems to me that kumar vishwas is the Hindhuthva or nationalist component of AAP while Bhushan is the 'secular' or 'liberal' component while Fordriwal tries to pretend as the balancer but ultimately inclines towards 'secularism' or 'liberalism'.

I think the easiest way to pin down Fordriwal, specially in parliamentary elections, is by lotus focusing on nationalistic issues like article 370, uniform civil code, no immigration of B-dheshis, bakis killing jawans, chinis violating LOC, terrorism...etc. So far, Fordri saar has avoided these issues. He has focused only on corruption... not even black money, only corruption. NaMo has already raised black money and even linked it to High command and poverty of the dhesh. He promised to bring back the black money and use it for the welfare of the poor. Now, lotus should ask what is the stand of Fordri on the issue of black money. Similarly, NaMo has already raised the issue of article 370. Fordri's stand on this issue should be sought. Also the stand of people like Bhushan should be highlighted. These are the issues where Fordri is weak and can be tackled. Fordri is one trick pony who concentrates on only corruption, not even development, just corruption. He keeps chanting the mantra of corruption. And his single shot solution is: Lokpal. He never takes up a scenario of what will happen if Lokpal becomes corrupt. He wants everyone to believe that Lokpal will be incorruptible and will lord over the elected representatives and the babus to control corruption.

He has been successful in setting the agenda of the discussion. Now, lotus should take the initiative by changing the subject of debate and concentrating on the issues like article 370, uniform civil code, killing of jawans and relations with bakis, tackling terrorism, ...etc This will expose the true nature of fordriwal.

And lotus needs to keep hammering that ultimately Fordri is in power with the help of the kongis, the same kongis against whom he was ranting and raving.

BTW, an interesting thought exercise for the supporters of Fordri:
Fordri has formed the sarkaar with the help of the kongis because he was lacking a few MLAs. What if it was a reverse scenario? What if it was the kongis that needed a few MLAs and Fordri had the numbers? Basically, what if kongi got 28 seats and Fordri got 8 seats and then if they had formed a sarkaar together, what would people say? Would they say that is a betrayal by Fordri or not?

Srivastav wrote:Awesome post johnyg sir

Thanks saar. But, honestly, I am scratching my head to figure out what was so good about that post. I thought most of what I wrote was already known to most of the guys here. It was not even such an eloquent post. No special insights either in that post. Some of my other posts that I was impressed by(and felt puffed up while writing) seem to have not impressed the gurus here. While those posts that I consider to be silly OT rants seem to get noticed. I can't seem to figure out the formula.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 29 Dec 2013 11:46

johneeG wrote: Thanks saar. But, honestly, I am scratching my head to figure out what was so good about that post. I thought most of what I wrote was already known to most of the guys here. It was not even such an eloquent post. No special insights either in that post. Some of my other posts that I was impressed by(and felt puffed up while writing) seem to have not impressed the gurus here. While those posts that I consider to be silly OT rants seem to get noticed. I can't seem to figure out the formula.

Time and place, johnneeGaru.... they say at the right time and the right place, even a horseshoe could save a kingdom... who knows... onlee...

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 29 Dec 2013 16:41

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 29 Dec 2013 16:43

Neta in chair-AAM admi on floor

RT this as much as possible with headlines. AAP Neta in chair and aam admi on his floor. Same old. Same old

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 29 Dec 2013 17:38

AAP funds-follow the money trail. Pune/Bangalore will be staging areas to make foray into south of Vindhyas.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 074062.cms

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 29 Dec 2013 18:34

AAP forming the government in Delhi, and BJP declining to is the right step......now Kejriwal will have to start grappling with the daily mundane issues of governance and he, as well as his supporters, will realize what "making change happen" entails. I think BJP should, and be seen to, sit back and not do anything either positive or negative.........the Cong(I) will be more than eager to point out the various flaws in AAP's governance

However, BJP WILL have to do a few things but subtly

1. Highlight the fact of Kejriwal being in Delhi for 20 years, and that too while being in the IRS.........something is definitely not right there
2. Start giving prominence to the "IIT, honest and equally down to earth, but with a proven track record of administration" people like Manohar Parikkar as well............the fact that the BJP fields a full force of proven administrators like Parikkar, Chauhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje, etc needs to come out far more prominently..........for starters, Parikkar should become party spokesman while continuing to be Goa CM...

IMVVHO and all that of course

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Dec 2013 19:05

Ahh - some interesting news. Ezhava community leader backs NaMo.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/kerala-caste-g ... 14414.html

Kerala seems to be going through some rapid changes. First, SNDP came out supporting NaMo in coy terms. Then, Kerala Congress (M) came out backing NaMo. Third, Balakrishnan Nair (another Kerala Congress head - this faction works with the support of a section of the Nairs) came out to support NaMo. After that, it was the turn of the head of one of the Orthodox churches to support NaMo. Finally, Ezhavas are coming in support of NaMo. If this support materialises in LS polls, we could be witnessing a BJP surge in Kerala. A few seats from kerala seems not unreasonable.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Dec 2013 19:11

RajeshA wrote: After BJP had refused the offer to form a govt in Delhi and after Congress had pledged unconditional support to AAP, and after Kejriwal had chosen to become the CM, then was the right time to break Congress. 5 of their MLAs should have been bought. These MLAs could have formed a new party. They could have given the excuse that Sonia Gandhi is not their leader as she forsake Delhi Congress and instead supported AAP.

Nobody would have pointed fingers at BJP as they refused to form the govt initially citing political morality. Also Kejriwal opted to take help of Congress, so he could not say, that BJP is wrong to accept the support of "ex-"Congress MLAs.

With 5 Congress MLAs, BJP could have then formed a coalition, where the 5 had accepted BJP's manifesto.

Now after forming the govt. Kejriwal would look like a martyr, whom the Congress pulled down.

RajeshA-ji,
That would have been a tactical strike, but a strategic problem. Now, I will go another step further. The BJP should, in the event that the Congress, pulls support from Khujliwal, abstain from voting in the no- confidence motion against him. The should say that the Khujliwal government is bad, but forcing a re-election is worse since the country cannot afford continuous re-elections. Instead, they should let the Congress and the AAP smash each other to pulp. This way, Khujliwal government can still survive, and be completely dependent on the BJP for its survival. The BJP can bring down Kejriwal at its leisure, once this happens.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Dec 2013 19:19

Rajesh Ramana,

That would not be possible - four of the INC MLAs are Muslim and other three SG/SD close aides.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 29 Dec 2013 19:41

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Prashant-Bhushan-assures-AAPs-support-to-agitation-against-Kudankulam-nuclear-plant/articleshow/28109983.cms

AAP leader Prasant Bhusan on Sunday said the party always supported the cause of people's movement against nuclear energy at Kudankulam and would always be with the people.

Addressing members of People's Movement Against Nuclear Energy at Idinthakarai near the Kundankulam Nuclear Power Project, Bhushan assured his party's support to the ongoing agitation against KNPP.

"We always opposed nuclear energy and also the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project. We supported the cause of PMANE in difficult times", he said.

"The national political scenario was looking for a substitute to BJP and Congress. Both these national parties are tainted. So the people of our country installed AAP in power at Delhi", he said.

The party was launched based on the ideology of opposing corruption in political life. AAP had assured people that they would give a transparent and corruption-free government.

Later he told reporters that the Centre should take immediate steps to resolve problems of fishermen getting attacked by the Sri Lankan navy.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 29 Dec 2013 19:44

gashish wrote:AAP funds-follow the money trail. Pune/Bangalore will be staging areas to make foray into south of Vindhyas.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 074062.cms

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/photo/28074124.cms

These figures reveal a gaping hole in their armor. It was quite well known that a significant amount of the AAP's funding and dedicated manpower came form outside Delhi, but I didn't expect the figure to be so high at 80%. This was massed armor blitzkrieg in Delhi 2013 which they cannot repeat in GE 2014, where the battle front will much larger. Now each region will have to sustain itself. To get a glimpse of the challenge ahead just consider Delhi, they could raise only 20% of the funds required for the local campaign. If they have to keep up the same tempo for the GE without external help, they will need to scale up by a massive 5X. And Delhi represents just 7 seats. If they want to replicate to other top tier cities, say to 70 seats(of the total 543, a measly 13%), they will have to scale up 50X. Now granted their membership and funding base will increase drastically after the ascension to power in Delhi, but is doubtful to rise to the level required. Given that they have shown their intent of contesting 300+ seats one can imagine how thin they are going to spread themselves.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Dec 2013 20:45

refugee/partisan/maskirovka units detached from the wehrmacht(INC) in urban areas and proxy funding from INC funds could help bridge the gap somewhat.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 29 Dec 2013 21:05

vivek.rao wrote:
Neta in chair-AAM admi on floor

RT this as much as possible with headlines. AAP Neta in chair and aam admi on his floor. Same old. Same old

what a great find. this ought to make people see the light. i mean, the nonsense of sitting in a chair so people can see him speak. he should be sitting in the ground while the people are sitting in chairs and watching the back of other people's heads.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 29 Dec 2013 21:34

abhik wrote:
gashish wrote:AAP funds-follow the money trail. Pune/Bangalore will be staging areas to make foray into south of Vindhyas.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 074062.cms

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/photo/28074124.cms
These figures reveal a gaping hole in their armor. It was quite well known that a significant amount of the AAP's funding and dedicated manpower came form outside Delhi, but I didn't expect the figure to be so high at 80%. This was massed armor blitzkrieg in Delhi 2013 which they cannot repeat in GE 2014, where the battle front will much larger. Now each region will have to sustain itself. To get a glimpse of the challenge ahead just consider Delhi, they could raise only 20% of the funds required for the local campaign. If they have to keep up the same tempo for the GE without external help, they will need to scale up by a massive 5X. And Delhi represents just 7 seats. If they want to replicate to other top tier cities, say to 70 seats(of the total 543, a measly 13%), they will have to scale up 50X. Now granted their membership and funding base will increase drastically after the ascension to power in Delhi, but is doubtful to rise to the level required. Given that they have shown their intent of contesting 300+ seats one can imagine how thin they are going to spread themselves.

We cannot underestimate AAP. They have captured public imagination. Kejriwal has become a demi-god. He is regularly trending on twitter and Facebook. Most of the people in my circle has started admiring him and want to vote for AAP.He will go big for GE 2014 and try to harm Modi as much as possible and there is a very good chance he will succeed.
Maybe thats the reason US still has the visa policy against Modi. They know that he is not going to become PM

williams · Post by **williams** » 29 Dec 2013 21:43

Folks, I don't think BJP lost any initiative. BJP needs to focus on winning and forget about what happened in Delhi. However BJP needs change in tactics. Their Nationalistic manifesto is good in paper but does not energize the masses. So they need to learn AAP tactics. That is elections are won locally. BJP needs to build grassroots level organization and deal with local issues. They should not think about coalitions but stand on their own nation wide. Become a massive AAP like party at national scale. Then I am sure BJP will win. AAP cannot get more than 30 seats at the national level. Congress is still in losing end unless a miracle happens. Namo is a good choice PM candidate, but that alone cannot win elections. After all Delhi results does tell us BJP has even chances to win inspite of AAP tactics. I do not condone AAP here. If they prove to be a genuine party to route corruption so be it. If they are Congi B team then time will tell that. It is too early for us to label them that way. In fact BJP should be doing what Congi leaders are doing. Praise AAP but tell people that they cannot scale at national level and BJP can do that nationally. BJP should portray itself as AAP + more at the national level.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 29 Dec 2013 21:47

AAP is giving the same promises which INC has made, it cant deliver on a large scale

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 29 Dec 2013 22:29

folks, no need to increase BP or dhoti shiver. Trust NaMo. He is where he is for a reason. "Life is either a daring adventure or nothing.” - Helen Kellar.

This blog is tracking day to day performance of aam-admi-party : AAP Chronicles

Delhi Jal Board Chief transferred by Arvind Kejriwal for pointing out Rs.118cr Loss if 700ltrs water is given free, daily.

The analysis my be old but still holds good : What 2013 means to 2014?

A note on AAP
The problem with frivolous intellectualism is it always hyper-reacts. Before the Delhi election everybody was busy under-estimating AAP and now everybody is busy over-estimating and over analyzing the AAP phenomenon.

On a different note, may be it's only me, but it is becoming difficult to track the statewide election and NaMo vs dynasty thread because of the constant assault of kalasnikhov phenomenon in both the threads simultaneously.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 29 Dec 2013 22:40

People like me who are shivering in my dhotis know that AAP will not win any substantial number of seats. They may at best win 10 seats. But those are seats which Namo would have won if not for them. They will get exposed eventually and the party will die or merge with the congress but before doing that they will ensure Namo does not become PM. BJP does not have presence in WB,TN,AP,Kerala,Orissa & NE which accounts for 170 seats. They have to win 200 out of 370 which is more than 50% majority. Now if you have spoiler, it becomes incredibly difficult

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 29 Dec 2013 23:27

Y'all are just being pessimistic. All indicatins suggest AAP is gonna maul Congis rather than hurt NaMo.

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 29 Dec 2013 23:47

rohiths wrote:People like me who are shivering in my dhotis know that AAP will not win any substantial number of seats. They may at best win 10 seats. But those are seats which Namo would have won if not for them. They will get exposed eventually and the party will die or merge with the congress but before doing that they will ensure Namo does not become PM. BJP does not have presence in WB,TN,AP,Kerala,Orissa & NE which accounts for 170 seats. They have to win 200 out of 370 which is more than 50% majority. Now if you have spoiler, it becomes incredibly difficult

What is stopping bhajpa(or RNS/NaMo duo) from turning this existential crisis into opportunity then? The cadre support is overwhelming this time around.

The analysis may be old but the writing on the wall is quite clear. Either buckle up or accept the Filmfare award for best whine!

The Modi way

The Bharatiya Janata Party has a lot to thank its star campaigner for, and must further empower his genius.

In this space, he can get down to overhauling the party apparatus in the capital, snap its corrupt and debilitating ties with the Delhi establishment, and strike out with great vigour. Setbacks and suboptimal performances drive Narendra Modi harder and he is forever in the learning mode, and he will not permit the Aam Admi Party to spring another surprise

“Rouse him, and learn the principle of his activity or inactivity. Force him to reveal himself, so as to find out his vulnerable spots.” --Sun Tzu

AK-2013 has taken the bait. Let us wait and watch.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 30 Dec 2013 00:13

Atish wrote:Y'all are just being pessimistic. All indicatins suggest AAP is gonna maul Congis rather than hurt NaMo.

What is the basis of your statement? Have you divided the electorate based on "Interest Groups"? In urban areas the interest groups are somewhat based on issues. And it is this group which the AAP is trying to snatch away from NaMo. Also understand the dynamics of the first by the post election.

Congress is dead. They too know it. Question is whether they can divide the anti-Congress vote enough to stop NaMo.

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 30 Dec 2013 00:30

Whats yours? Data is clear, AAP took 6 times as many Congi votes as BJP in Delhi. All survey (and anecdotal) evidence suggests a big chunk of AAP voters prefer NaMo at center. Janta gives decisive mandates. Maybe AAP is a Lok Sabha force in 2019 and works differently, but not in 2014.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Dec 2013 00:32

Atish wrote:Whats yours? Data is clear, AAP took 6 times as many Congi votes as BJP in Delhi. All survey (and anecdotal) evidence suggests a big chunk of AAP voters prefer NaMo at center. Janta gives decisive mandates. Maybe AAP is a Lok Sabha force in 2019 and works differently, but not in 2014.

So Congress is transforming into AAP to wash off its sins of 67 years. Should we allow it?

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 30 Dec 2013 00:42

You are gonna have a left center strong outfit in the country. Congis with Shastri or even Narasimha Rao was not a contemptible evil anti national force. If AAP becomes that no problem.

Yes if I could design a universe based on my idea of utopia there will be no Left, but thats not the issue.

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 30 Dec 2013 00:54

RajeshA wrote:
Atish wrote:Whats yours? Data is clear, AAP took 6 times as many Congi votes as BJP in Delhi. All survey (and anecdotal) evidence suggests a big chunk of AAP voters prefer NaMo at center. Janta gives decisive mandates. Maybe AAP is a Lok Sabha force in 2019 and works differently, but not in 2014.
So Congress is transforming into AAP to wash off its sins of 67 years. Should we allow it?

We can not allow that to happen but try to talk this (Congi transforming to AAP) into a person born around '90 heck may be some before that too. Trust me, you would hit a brick wall! There are ample reasons and brf has got pages after pages dedicated to those analysis, the forces destroying India, deracinated crowd etc. These folks don't have the time or patience to listen to it. Is that not a sizable and eligible voter population?

X-posting from the modi thread. This is the crowd we are talking about.

kumarn wrote:AAP is going to hurt real bad! My friends "want" to believe that "this time it is different" and they are arguing to "leave aside rationality" and hope! This is the class that would fulminate on SM and in drawing rooms but would never vote. But have voted this time and are determined to vote again in 2014. I think AAP is going to make a dent into BJP fortunes in the urban seats which have the Yippie crowd.

Congress is out of the picture true, but the SM crowd stands firmly divided between AAP(however miniscule or major) and BJP. What other options do we have but to drive home the message of growth and development in bhajpa states while waiting for kejri's mistake?

Preempting any strike would only bolster the aap supporters confidence. Voldemort himself chose/marked his nemesis.

Also, what was bhajpa doing all these years? They had 10 years to get their house in order. Twiddling thumb and blame game would not work any more. Give the men (NaMo/RNS) and cadre free hand. Clean up the house. Get rid of non performers. Go and campaign door to door. Do not even leave the remotest corner of India. Toil hard, rally the voters and take them to vote. Anything less, tata goodbye!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Dec 2013 00:59

Atish wrote:You are gonna have a left center strong outfit in the country. Congis with Shastri or even Narasimha Rao was not a contemptible evil anti national force. If AAP becomes that no problem.

Yes if I could design a universe based on my idea of utopia there will be no Left, but thats not the issue.

Left and Right are okay w.r.t. economics.

Bharat should have a single political philosophy - Bharatiyata and Dharma! That can be divided into two parties - economic left and economic right. All this Secularism, Macaulayism, Dhimmism, Yippieism, Foreign control, etc. should fly out of the window. For that there should be no space in India, neither under the label of Left or Right.

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 30 Dec 2013 01:00

NaMo is good but there are lots of gangstas, a*******, rabid bigots in Bhajapa or allied orgs like Togadia, Jolly, Singhal etc etc, its not so clear cut good and evil unfortunately. Bhushan is akin to a Togadia or Singhal. I would be worried if AAP actually talks big on say Kashmir indpependence, pappiyan jhappiyan Pakiland and public support doesnt drop. Those were not the issues in 2013 elections. I dont think theyw ill , or a big chunk of their MLAs workers and supporters will revolt. Conspiracies aside, the issue #1 this time was corruption and livelihood related to the same.

This is good. Worry about antinational forces when they emerge, not coz its possible they can. This much pessimism and fear will drive you nuts.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Dec 2013 01:00

Atish wrote:You are gonna have a left center strong outfit in the country. Congis with Shastri or even Narasimha Rao was not a contemptible evil anti national force. If AAP becomes that no problem.

Yes if I could design a universe based on my idea of utopia there will be no Left, but thats not the issue.

This is the delusion that is disappointing. AAP is not left-center. They are extreme left. They are beyond communists and Maoists in terms of their ideology. See what kind of things they are supporting and anything anti-India they are there. anti nuke plants, let us give JK/Tawang etc.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Dec 2013 01:03

Atish wrote:NaMo is good but there are lots of gangstas, a*******, rabid bigots in Bhajapa or allied orgs like Togadia, Jolly, Singhal etc etc, its not so clear cut good and evil unfortunately. Bhushan is akin to a Togadia or Singhal. I would be worried if AAP actually talks big on say Kashmir indpependence, pappiyan jhappiyan Pakiland and public support doesnt drop. Those were not the issues in 2013 elections. I dont think theyw ill , or a big chunk of their MLAs workers and supporters will revolt. Conspiracies aside, the issue #1 this time was corruption and livelihood related to the same.

This is good. Worry about antinational forces when they emerge, not coz its possible they can. This much pessimism and fear will drive you nuts.

when it comes to BJP, we have worry about lots of gangstas, Tagodias but when it comes to AAP we have worry when it comes and not now. That tells the intellectual dishonesty of an average AAP voters. I again repeat that AAP voters are those who always want to find fault with BJP and find a pretext to either not vote or not vote to BJP. It is out and out congress voters and good if they split off to AAP.

Atish · Post by **Atish** » 30 Dec 2013 01:17

Pah you guys just wanna see danger where there is none and get all worked up about it.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Dec 2013 01:21

arindam wrote:
Atish wrote:Whats yours? Data is clear, AAP took 6 times as many Congi votes as BJP in Delhi. All survey (and anecdotal) evidence suggests a big chunk of AAP voters prefer NaMo at center. Janta gives decisive mandates. Maybe AAP is a Lok Sabha force in 2019 and works differently, but not in 2014.
RajeshA wrote:
So Congress is transforming into AAP to wash off its sins of 67 years. Should we allow it?
We can not allow that to happen but try to talk this (Congi transforming to AAP) into a person born around '90 heck may be some before that too. Trust me, you would hit a brick wall! There are ample reasons and brf has got pages after pages dedicated to those analysis, the forces destroying India, deracinated crowd etc. These folks don't have the time or patience to listen to it. Is that not a sizable and eligible voter population?

arindam ji,

AAP crowds are not analysts or historians. They too are people enchanted by ideas presented in a simple way - anti-establishment, anti-corruption, and building up Arvind Kejriwal as the deliverer of that vision, and channelizer of that anger. AAP has used the anger against the establishment to paint "Congress == BJP"!

NaMo has built a formidable and credible reputation as an opponent of the dynasty. However he has inherited a blundering directionless BJP in many states and at the national level. He has of course also inherited its resources. It would take some time before NaMo can rebuild BJP in his own image especially in the perception of the people across India. Until then BJP would be vulnerable to AAP propaganda, and through this vulnerability, so too would NaMo be vulnerable.

Kejriwal & Co. do not have to answer for anything as they are new, albeit working for the same lords active since 1757 when EIC entered India.

What the Hindutvavadis need to do is to package AAP in a similar way as AAP has packaged BJP.

BJP has to show "AAP == Congress", however BJP is doing it the wrong way, by saying AAP is Congress B Team. All AAP has to do is to curse Congress a few times, and people won't believe BJP.

What BJP needs is alternate metaphors, which AAP is unable to shake off!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Dec 2013 01:54

Atish wrote:Pah you guys just wanna see danger where there is none and get all worked up about it.

Just like you a generation ago, folks thought there is no danger in Sonia and her gang but found huge problem and crisis if ABV or LKA become leaders. AAP is just a repetitive for aged folks like me.

you know the language is just old wine in new bottle.

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 30 Dec 2013 02:27

RajeshA wrote:
arindam ji,

AAP crowds are not analysts or historians. They too are people enchanted by ideas presented in a simple way - anti-establishment, anti-corruption, and building up Arvind Kejriwal as the deliverer of that vision, and channelizer of that anger. AAP has used the anger against the establishment to paint "Congress == BJP"!

NaMo has built a formidable and credible reputation as an opponent of the dynasty. However he has inherited a blundering directionless BJP in many states and at the national level. He has of course also inherited its resources. It would take some time before NaMo can rebuild BJP in his own image especially in the perception of the people across India. Until then BJP would be vulnerable to AAP propaganda, and through this vulnerability, so too would NaMo be vulnerable.

Kejriwal & Co. do not have to answer for anything as they are new, albeit working for the same lords active since 1757 when EIC entered India.

What the Hindutvavadis need to do is to package AAP in a similar way as AAP has packaged BJP.

BJP has to show "AAP == Congress", however BJP is doing it the wrong way, by saying AAP is Congress B Team. All AAP has to do is to curse Congress a few times, and people won't believe BJP.

What BJP needs is alternate metaphors, which AAP is unable to shake off!

RajeshA gaaru, please drop the ji.

What is that alternate metaphor? Sonia transferring her baggage to aap car or CIA is not driving the message. The desperate crowd "want" to "believe" in aap, give kejri a chance. The charade of "participatory-democracy" was lauded.(sic!)

Leaving the nitty-gritty of how/what aside, on a broader level, we are talking about the folks who voted UPA1/UPA2 to power. Gave mandate to Akhilesh. Went ahead and voted the nut-case Mamata (they had no other option anyway). Cheered for Siddaramaiah. Look at AP/BH. They voted because these folks promised them "something" and they "believed". The 24/7 media/intellectual barrage in support of kejri/upstarts/fresh-face/new-wine/new-congi/reformed-goonda/ej/atheist/agnostic and against bhajpa/hindutvavadi is tiresome but they too have an audience and it is effective. What is bhajpa's counter? For how long the supporters of bhajpa has to be apologetic in explaining their leaders and party? Isn't time running out?

AAP has used the anger against the establishment to paint "Congress == BJP"

Bingo! When you start arguing with an aap supporter, they are bound to bring out the 800 cr. foreign funding of bhajpa issue. Would not even budge a bit. Governance, executive decisions, legislature are foreign words to them. The common narrative is "sab chor hain". It's all about corruption and corruption alone and bhajpa is equally guilty as congi, so vote for us!

It would take some time before NaMo can rebuild BJP in his own image especially in the perception of the people across India

bulls eye! It is the perception which matters. bhajpa needs to build one too. Until NaMo comes to power, the hands of Hindutvavadis are tied behind their backs. They can only do so much and yes, NaMo is too vulnerable. He is the only man standing before a permanent amputation of our country.

That brings the next set of questions, isn't bhajpa aware of it? What would it take, for them to not shoot their feet again?

What should be bhajpa's tactical strategy and long-term goal? Can we list them out in a succinct manner so as to convince the average voter.

Until Judhistir was crowned, the forces against him were tireless in their endeavor and they succeeded too. Also, it was only after Kurkshetra, "Dharma" was established. Is it MB redux? Are we too too "Dharmic" for our own good?

bhajpa has to kick up a storm and it should be now or never. The wind is blowing in their favor but that is simply not enough. This is an all out war.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Dec 2013 03:18

arindam wrote:What is that alternate metaphor? Sonia transferring her baggage to aap car or CIA is not driving the message. The desperate crowd "want" to "believe" in aap, give kejri a chance. The charade of "participatory-democracy" was lauded.(sic!)

Leaving the nitty-gritty of how/what aside

It is interesting, that the desperate crowd wants to give Kejri a chance. Why him? Why can't we say that AAP should put forth a leader who is not tainted by his association with foreign foundations funded by CIA.

Sure if the question comes about BJP's foreign funding then the question is whether that was from CIA as well?

Problem here is that Kejriwal has never really been pressed against the wall! Mainstream media has blacked out anything that may be happening against Kejriwal in the social media. And BJP hasn't gone around town, door to door, classroom to classroom, telling people about Kejriwal's antecedents. So Kejriwal has got a free pass out there!

So the argument that calling out #SoniaKaLalKejriwal is a useless slogan cannot be admitted because the slogan has not been tried out. All that has been tried out is calling AAP, a Congress B Team, and that is ineffective as I mentioned earlier.

If we start from the premise that people are desperate to give Kejriwal a chance, then might as well pack our bags and go home. Then all the fight is gone.

The people are desperate because they think he is an alternative. It is BJP's job, or Internet Hindus' job to convince others that he is no alternative, he is just #KejriwalCongressKaNayaAvatar.

arindam wrote:on a broader level we are talking about the folks who voted UPA1/UPA2 to power. Gave mandate to Akhilesh. Went ahead and voted the nut-case Mamata (they had no other option anyway). Cheered for Siddaramaiah. Look at AP/BH. They voted because these folks promised them "something" and they "believed". The 24/7 media/intellectual barrage in support of kejri/upstarts/fresh-face/new-wine/new-congi/reformed-goonda/ej/atheist/agnostic and against bhajpa/hindutvavadi is tiresome but they too have an audience and it is effective. What is bhajpa's counter? For how long the supporters of bhajpa has to be apologetic in explaining their leaders and party? Isn't time running out?

At some level that is true, but that support was to individuals. MSM's support to AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is to a movement-offspring which is based on an agenda, overt ideology of anti-establishment and anti-corruption. Giving support to some out-of-power but established politician is as you said based on reformed personality. What it does is it galvanizes the floating voter banks around that personality which already commands a committed voter base (say caste).

Support to AAP is however galvanizing a new breed of new voters, who were not voters till now. It is cutting across established caste lines and this support is flowing to an organization whose stated ideas are most definitely anti-national.

What we don't want is a non-Bharatiya ideological alternative mated with a desire for change!

arindam wrote:
AAP has used the anger against the establishment to paint "Congress == BJP"
Bingo! When you start arguing with an aap supporter, they are bound to bring out the 800 cr. foreign funding of bhajpa issue. Would not even budge a bit. Governance, executive decisions, legislature are foreign words to them. The common narrative is "sab chor hain". It's all about corruption and corruption alone and bhajpa is equally guilty as congi, so vote for us!

Similarly bombard them with questions on the money Arvind Kejriwal has grabbed which was gathered as donations to IAC. What about the Anna Card Scheme to which we still don't have a satisfactory answer.

But as far as foreign funding is concerned, one has to increase the pressure a tick further and qualify the money Kejriwal received as CIA money laundered through Ford Foundation.

The Hindu nation is spread all over the world, and BJP did not receive any funds from outside the Hindu nation! Can Kejriwal say the same!

"Foreign" as such needs to be qualified further.

arindam wrote:
It would take some time before NaMo can rebuild BJP in his own image especially in the perception of the people across India
bulls eye! It is the perception which matters. bhajpa needs to build one too. Until NaMo comes to power, the hands of Hindutvavadis are tied behind their backs. They can only do so much and yes, NaMo is too vulnerable. He is the only man standing before a permanent amputation of our country.

The hands of Hindutvavadis are not bound as far as attacking Kejriwal and AAP goes. Call him out as #CIAKaDalalKejriwal. If AAP can equate "Congress == BJP", what stops us from doing "Ford Foundation == CIA", which may be much closer to reality. And which one of AAP supporters is going to argue against that. For that, there is more info in favor on the net, than against it.

arindam wrote:That brings the next set of questions, isn't bhajpa aware of it? What would it take, for them to not shoot their feet again?

What should be bhajpa's tactical strategy and long-term goal? Can we list them out in a succinct manner so as to convince the average voter.

Until Judhistir was crowned, the forces against him were tireless in their endeavor and they succeeded too. Also, it was only after Kurkshetra, "Dharma" was established. Is it MB redux? Are we too too "Dharmic" for our own good?

bhajpa has to kick up a storm and it should be now or never. The wind is blowing in their favor but that is simply not enough. This is an all out war.

NaMo should stick to the positive message.

Even BJP leaders should be circumspect in making such accusations. But the word can be spread across the campuses and mohallas of Delhi and elsewhere where AAP is strong. BJP leaders should take up 2nd tier AAP "leaders" and their pronouncements and behavior on national security. But basically the message should be positive. Negative only on SM and at campus/mohalla level.

disha · Post by **disha** » 30 Dec 2013 03:22

Atish wrote:Pah you guys just wanna see danger where there is none and get all worked up about it.

When we see a danger we feel for the Indian humans lives lost. The very fact that AAP is talking about Kudankulam, Kashmir, Batla house encounters in ways that make the blood curl indicates that they are irresponsible and kicked out at the earliest. Or make way for more Indian lives to be lost.

It is the later we(I) do not want to see.

Case in point, the secular bombings in Bihar which claimed 8 lives - all Indian.

disha · Post by **disha** » 30 Dec 2013 03:34

Some thoughts FWIW

AAP and Arvind Kejriwal's supporter bristle at the mention of Anna and to a certain degree Kiran Bedi. This is a opening., that is hammer at the big divide between Anna and Arvind and constantly chip at it. This opening should be used to break apart the pulpit of moral grandstanding from where Arvind is bullying. If Anna can be motivated to do another hunger strike at a policy of Arvind/AAP then that would be great.

That is take away the moral grandstanding of Kejriwal and he will be left exposed. The remaining part of is lack of administration and execution should do the rest.

And BTW, AAP will take away some 80% of CongI votes in urban areas and some 3% of BJP votes from existing votes. Some 17% are new and first time voters to AAP and this are the votes which can go to BJP/NaMo's kitty.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Dec 2013 03:46

disha wrote:AAP and Arvind Kejriwal's supporter bristle at the mention of Anna and to a certain degree Kiran Bedi. This is a opening., that is hammer at the big divide between Anna and Arvind and constantly chip at it. This opening should be used to break apart the pulpit of moral grandstanding from where Arvind is bullying. If Anna can be motivated to do another hunger strike at a policy of Arvind/AAP then that would be great.

They are playing a delicate dance. Kiran Bedi is always hovering at the margins of attacking AAP and Kejriwal, but she hasn't crossed the line. Nor has Anna. They wouldn't be supporting him in the foreseeable future. But I don't think one can really get Anna to go against Kejriwal before LS 2014 elections. There just aren't going to be any issues for that.

Now that Lokpal Bill has been passed by Parliament, one would be hearing ever less of Anna through MSM. The only situation where I think MSM would be ready to put spotlight on Anna again would be if he does some dharnas and fasts against a Modi govt at the Center.

disha wrote:And BTW, AAP will take away some 80% of CongI votes in urban areas and some 3% of BJP votes from existing votes. Some 17% are new and first time voters to AAP and this are the votes which can go to BJP/NaMo's kitty.

It is the new voters and urban seats that Modi was counting on to put him over the Congress.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 30 Dec 2013 04:09

Atish wrote:Yes if I could design a universe based on my idea of utopia there will be no Left, but thats not the issue.

For some Utopia is when there is no govt.

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 30 Dec 2013 05:54

arindam wrote: What is stopping bhajpa(or RNS/NaMo duo) from turning this existential crisis into opportunity then? The cadre support is overwhelming this time around.
Setbacks and suboptimal performances drive Narendra Modi harder and he is forever in the learning mode, and he will not permit the Aam Admi Party to spring another surprise

BJP/NaMo must use the nautanki going on in Nai Dilli to the fullest extent. Highlight that AK/AAP have given the remote control back to CongIs, inspite of losing the mandate heavily. BJP/NaMo must never refer to AAP/AK by name, though.

BJP/NaMo must highlight that vote for small parties will

1. End up splitting the anti-CongI vote
2. Force these small parties to embrace the same CongI that voters kicked out

So, for real political change from corrupt CongI governance, they must not be swayed by pie-in-the-sky promises, 50% less electricity bills, 700L free water, voting through SMSs etc. Small parties can only make marginal difference on national scale. The real alternative to corrupt CongI is BJP/NaMo. This must be drilled into all voters in the length & breadth of the country.

Atish wrote:All survey (and anecdotal) evidence suggests a big chunk of AAP voters prefer NaMo at center.

The above highlighted was true prior to results of state elections of 2013. Seeing the performance of the AAP/AK, may be, some have begun fancy AAP/AK chances in GE2014.

Has anybody carried out a survey in Delhi AFTER the elections results are out to see this preference is still retained for BJP/NaMO in GE2014?