Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ravi_shankar · Post by **ravi_shankar** » 23 Jan 2014 15:48

CSDS for UP - INC 16%, BSP - 17%, SP - 17%, AAP - 5% and BJP - only 38%..

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 23 Jan 2014 15:53

In rare political style, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi asked some Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) workers in Amethi to take off their caps and join the Congress instead.

On a day two-day visit to his family’s political home ground, he stopped to meet the AAP workers and had a quick chat. “Are you from Amethi,” he asked the youths. Seeing their caps, he jokingly asked the workers to take them off and join the Congress.”

Despite the courteous meeting, AAP workers started shouting “takht badal do taaj badal do - beimano ka raj badal do” as soon as Rahul left.

Later speaking to media persons at the party office, Rahul said, “We do our work and are not in the habit of speaking much.” He also disapproved of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s dharna in the national capital saying it wasn’t justified.

Turning his guns on the ruling Samajwadi Party government for lack of development in Amethi, he said, “Ek cheej ki kami rah gayi - jaisa bijli ka hona chahiye nahin hua- aur national highway ko chodkar sadak ka bhi nahin hua – yeh rajya sarkar karti hai - (I have not been able to improve the power situation and the roads barring the national highways).”

Despite arriving six hours behind schedule due to bad weather, he got a warm welcome.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... px?hts0021

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 16:14

PTI >> Case of Sunanda Pushkar's death transferred to Crime Branch of Delhi Police: Sources.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 16:43

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 21m

SC commences hearing on land acquisition for SEZ http://ibnlive.in.com/news/sc-commences ... 320-7.html …
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The allocation of land by state governments, including to Mukesh Ambani-promoted Reliance Industries in Punjab and Haryana and Anil Ambani-run Reliance Energy in Uttar Pradesh, for developing SEZs will be under scrutiny.

The petitioners, including farmers group from different states, have submitted that governments should be prohibited from allowing use of agricultural land for purposes other than crop cultivation and contended acquisition of land for business growth of private companies by the government was illegal.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 23 Jan 2014 17:16

pankajs wrote:PTI >> Case of Sunanda Pushkar's death transferred to Crime Branch of Delhi Police: Sources.

Sunanda Pushkar: Dead wife of Indian minister had mysterious Canadian connection

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 23 Jan 2014 17:20

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Even bigger is if INC does really plummet below 100 (I still see them crossing 100), then INC WILL BREAK and I am sure we can find 33 Hindu minded congressis of the old mould even today (though they may not say that when with the congress)
The split in Congress may be on the horizon. Whatever result they get, they will be mightily pissed off at the Dynasty for their weak showing.

One way of shortlisting leaders who may lead this breakaway of 33 congressis would be to check the ones who are leftover from narsimha regime or way back rajiv regime, but didn't find favours with maino. These may have kept there hands clean so not susptible to blackmail also. Vidyacharan Shukla was one such leader but he has already been assasinated........

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 17:35

Headlines Today ‏@HeadlinesToday 14m

#MOTNPoll 7PM Hindi heartland 7:30 UPA & Rahul report card 8PM Southern states 8:30PM Delhi Haryana Punjab 9PM Maharashtra WB Orissa 10PM.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 17:43

Shishir Gupta ‏@sisir_gupta 6m

I am told UP survey is showing 49 seats for the BJP. The overall survey may show Cong below 70 seats in 2014 and a Modi wave in India.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2014 17:55

>> who are leftover from narsimha regime or way back rajiv regime, but didn't find favours with maino

pranabda, PC and mani shankar aiyar are the only three who comes to mind...unless you want to count MMS too.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2014 18:02

how does a realtor firm employee make so much money as to have 12 apts in dubai? and these cannot be cheap low end boxes...
from the canada article:

According to a declaration of assets in January 2013, she listed 12 apartments in Dubai — some rented out, some still under construction. The total value of her assets, including jewelry and cars, was approximately $21 million.

The declaration is available on the Indian prime minister’s website.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 18:32

ravi_shankar wrote:CSDS for UP - INC 16%, BSP - 17%, SP - 17%, AAP - 5% and BJP - only 38%..

38% is very high. If they really get it as shown in the survey and get even just 20 seats in Bihar, BJP will hit 200 on its own.

It is beyond my imagination as to how cong is getting that 16% vote (i think that is made up). So basically Namo has robbed the following from SP and BSP

1. 2% fence sitting vote from Cong.
2. 7% UC vote and 3% (non jatav dalits like khatiks and pasis) from BSP
3. 7% non-yadav BC vote from SP.
4. Royally screwed RLD and took bulk of the Jat Vote.

This all adds to about 20-21% vote. Last time in LS 2009 BJP was 17.5%, now 38% if this survey is right.

On a different note, how come CSDS and C-voter have diametrically opposite numbers for congress and BJP in Haryana. On that one, I have to say I believe the CSDS one. C-Voter predicted 40% vote for BJP which is very high

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 18:36

pankajs wrote:Shishir Gupta ‏@sisir_gupta 6m

I am told UP survey is showing 49 seats for the BJP. The overall survey may show Cong below 70 seats in 2014 and a Modi wave in India.

With 38% vote and the rest below 17% each, even 49 is low. It should be at least 55.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 23 Jan 2014 18:40

Pranav wrote:
Rahul Mehta wrote:

The thread has become backup of twitter
OT: At one point of time BRF was a major Indian discussion forum, but IMO the restrictive registration procedure has made it lose traction. Now, IMO, critical mass has been lost, and it may be difficult to recover. Continuous infusion of fresh blood needed to avoid becoming an echo-chamber.

OT.
BRF by far the best discussion forum on Indic affairs than the closest competitor. While new blood is needed, what makes BRF good is the moderation. Its as unbiased as it gets. Some other places, the love of the left and open hatred of any thing Hindu is encouraged with moderator posts.

Don't believe me, try others. You will know what I am talking about.

Of course thanks to all the gurus on here- we all know who they are- for enriching my life.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Jan 2014 18:42

muraliravi wrote:
pankajs wrote:Shishir Gupta ‏@sisir_gupta 6m

I am told UP survey is showing 49 seats for the BJP. The overall survey may show Cong below 70 seats in 2014 and a Modi wave in India.
With 38% vote and the rest below 17% each, even 49 is low. It should be at least 55.

If this kind of thing happens, we can expect the implosion of the SP. The Muslims will migrate to the BSP and the Yadavs and other Hindus to the BJP. Maybe the SP and AAP should merge? They have similar tendencies, after all?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 18:57

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
With 38% vote and the rest below 17% each, even 49 is low. It should be at least 55.
If this kind of thing happens, we can expect the implosion of the SP. The Muslims will migrate to the BSP and the Yadavs and other Hindus to the BJP. Maybe the SP and AAP should merge? They have similar tendencies, after all?

Nagesh ji,

17% for BSP means, just the Jatav dalits are still with her.

17% for SP means, the yadavs (approx 7-9% of pop) and 10% muslims. So of the 19% muslims, around 1/2 (10%) is with SP.

So is the 16% for congress heavily due to muslims siding with them. Where is the other 9% muslim vote going if not to congress?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 19:01

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 7m

Bihar (40)- BJP-22, RJD-11, JDU-4, Congress-2, LJP-1: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll
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Uttar Pradesh (80)- BJP-30, BSP-24, SP-20, Congress-4, RLD-1, AAP-1: India Today Mood of the Nation opinion poll

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 23 Jan 2014 19:02

JDU gone bust with just 4 seats. It will be cakewalk to split the JDU in the Bihar assembly later. Nitish's career will go bust.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jan 2014 19:06

muraliravi wrote:17% for SP means, the yadavs (approx 7-9% of pop) and 10% muslims. So of the 19% muslims, around 1/2 (10%) is with SP.

So is the 16% for congress heavily due to muslims siding with them. Where is the other 9% muslim vote going if not to congress?

It may not be the case that all Yadavs are for Mulayam. The young Yadavs may be for Modi. So there may be more Muslims in that 17% for SP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Jan 2014 19:09

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:17% for SP means, the yadavs (approx 7-9% of pop) and 10% muslims. So of the 19% muslims, around 1/2 (10%) is with SP.

So is the 16% for congress heavily due to muslims siding with them. Where is the other 9% muslim vote going if not to congress?
It may not be the case that all Yadavs are for Mulayam. The young Yadavs may be for Modi. So there may be more Muslims in that 17% for SP.

You are absolutely right, RajeshA-ji. The Urdu press has been very sympathetic to SP, and much of their mid level cadre in all districts is still Muslim, and still intact. I suspect a lot of Yadavs are quitting SP and moving to BJP due to Baba Ramdev and NaMo.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 19:11

nageshks wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
It may not be the case that all Yadavs are for Mulayam. The young Yadavs may be for Modi. So there may be more Muslims in that 17% for SP.
You are absolutely right, RajeshA-ji. The Urdu press has been very sympathetic to SP, and much of their mid level cadre in all districts is still Muslim, and still intact. I suspect a lot of Yadavs are quitting SP and moving to BJP due to Baba Ramdev and NaMo.

Wow, thats even better. Its a real hindu consolidation for Namo. But then if there are even more muslims in SP's camp, how is congress getting that 16%.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 19:18

Election tracker for UP on http://www.abplive.in/livetv/

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 19:20

Headlines Today
---------------------------------------->>
Jharkhand seat share: BJP 8 (0), JMM 2 (0), INC 1 (0), JVM 2 (+1), Ind 1 (-1)
Chhattisgarh seat share: BJP 8 (-2), INC 3 (+2).
Rajasthan seat share: INC 3 (-17), BJP 21 (+17), Ind 1 (0).
Madhya Pradesh seat share: BJP 22 (+6), INC 6 (-6), BSP 1(0).
Bihar seat share: JD(U) 4 (-16), BJP 22 (+10), RJD 11 (+7).
Uttar Pradesh seat share: SP 20(-3), INC 4 (-17), BSP 24 (+4), BJP 30 (+20), RLD 1 (-4), AAP 1 (+1), Ind 0 (-1).
----------------------------------------->>
Shivraj Chauhan's goodwill plus Modi's magic delivering bumper harvest for BJP across Madhya Pradesh.
Surge in favour of Modi witnessed across Bihar. Nitish Kumar heading for a complete rout.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 19:32

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 22m

#MOTNPoll Muslims remain strongly opposed to Narendra Modi in #Bihar and will vote tactically to try and defeat BJP.
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Just noting. We all know that by now.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2014 19:39

At least now some of you put all these surveys in atable and upload to google docs with version control.

muraliravi, I am requesting you to take the lead.Nagehsks cvan you be the backup as we need two person rule?

fanne, I need you to maintain another set.

Rudradev by now you must have read Nate Silver's book-Signla and Noise

I would like you to put that methodology to work.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 19:42

ramana wrote:At least now some of you put all these surveys in atable and upload to google docs with version control.

muraliravi, I am requesting you to take the lead.Nagehsks cvan you be the backup as we need two person rule?

fanne, I need you to maintain another set.

Rudradev by now you must have read Nate Silver's book-Signla and Noise

I would like you to put that methodology to work.

Ok sir, will do. We can collate all surveys and do a BR - Poll of polls average.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Jan 2014 19:45

ramana wrote:At least now some of you put all these surveys in atable and upload to google docs with version control.

muraliravi, I am requesting you to take the lead.Nagehsks cvan you be the backup as we need two person rule?

fanne, I need you to maintain another set.

Rudradev by now you must have read Nate Silver's book-Signla and Noise

I would like you to put that methodology to work.

Will do, saar.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2014 19:51

Singha wrote:>> who are leftover from narsimha regime or way back rajiv regime, but didn't find favours with maino

pranabda, PC and mani shankar aiyar are the only three who comes to mind...unless you want to count MMS too.

All three are param chor.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jan 2014 20:15

muraliravi wrote:
RajeshA wrote:It may not be the case that all Yadavs are for Mulayam. The young Yadavs may be for Modi. So there may be more Muslims in that 17% for SP.
nageshks wrote:You are absolutely right, RajeshA-ji. The Urdu press has been very sympathetic to SP, and much of their mid level cadre in all districts is still Muslim, and still intact. I suspect a lot of Yadavs are quitting SP and moving to BJP due to Baba Ramdev and NaMo.
Wow, thats even better. Its a real hindu consolidation for Namo. But then if there are even more muslims in SP's camp, how is congress getting that 16%.

Well Rahul Baba went to Dalit homes to eat their food - for free. Read somewhere that those were exclusively Pasi Dalit families. So 16% could have some non-Jatav Dalits like Pasis, non-Yadav OBCs like Kurmis, and local leader based support, other than Muslims.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 20:29

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 13m

Opinion Poll: BJP gains ground in UP, party to win 35 seats; BSP 15, SP 14, Congress+RLD 12, AAP 2, Others 2 . Read: http://www.abplive.in/india/2014/01/23/ ... uEwbVO6a1s …

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 23 Jan 2014 20:47

CNN IBN >> BJP 38% >> 41-49 seats

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 23 Jan 2014 20:49

^ oh yea!! better than the numbers even from the ram-janmabhumi stir times

member_23658 · Post by **member_23658** » 23 Jan 2014 20:50

sardesai and ramchandra guha on CNN IBN basically demanding that cong tie up with Mayawati to stop this disaster

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Jan 2014 20:53

All,
I would like you to read the Indian interests thread about how the Europeans brought in group identities and divided to rule. My point is that over three hundred years we had splittism fostered and nutrured in the name of group identity in Hindusthan that was Bharat. Lets make a conscious effort to not use group identities any more. Unfortunately Congress festered the colonial mindest via their minions and thugs in society.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 23 Jan 2014 20:57

ramana wrote:All,
I would like you to read the Indian interests thread about how the Europeans brought in group identities and divided to rule. My point is that over three hundred years we had splittism fostered and nutrured in the name of group identity in Hindusthan that was Bharat. Lets make a conscious effort to not use group identities any more. Unfortunately Congress festered the colonial mindest via their minions and thugs in society.

If I may say so, the Jati identities make us strong. It is the discrimination based on these group identities that weaken us. That is what others have done.

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Jan 2014 21:07

RajeshA wrote:
ramana wrote:All,
I would like you to read the Indian interests thread about how the Europeans brought in group identities and divided to rule. My point is that over three hundred years we had splittism fostered and nutrured in the name of group identity in Hindusthan that was Bharat. Lets make a conscious effort to not use group identities any more. Unfortunately Congress festered the colonial mindest via their minions and thugs in society.
If I may say so, the Jati identities make us strong. It is the discrimination based on these group identities that weaken us. That is what others have done.

+1

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 23 Jan 2014 21:32

RajeshA wrote:
ramana wrote:All,
I would like you to read the Indian interests thread about how the Europeans brought in group identities and divided to rule. My point is that over three hundred years we had splittism fostered and nutrured in the name of group identity in Hindusthan that was Bharat. Lets make a conscious effort to not use group identities any more. Unfortunately Congress festered the colonial mindest via their minions and thugs in society.
If I may say so, the Jati identities make us strong. It is the discrimination based on these group identities that weaken us. That is what others have done.

But no matter what you may say... vested interests (socialists,NGOs,DIEnasty dogs,foreign agents) will use jati and to keep us divided.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 23 Jan 2014 21:33

Muslim salariat and clergy will force SP-BSP-INC-AAP to come together, if BJP is pulling 38% vote.

And this is the time for VHP to up the tempo, if this happens. I do not know if it is tripurantaka moment because tripurantaka in my lexicon will entail elimination of apparatus which festers and legitimizes political islam from ganga-valley. But surely a panipat-moment.

BJP will have to up the tempo in UP now. It may not be so that there will be an overt agreement. But covert understanding, then creation of some communal situation and then grand gesture of secular forces coming together etc.

I so wish this happens. As devaguru said repeatedly, any moment which forces people to take sides in this kurukshetra is a good moment.

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 23 Jan 2014 21:38

ramana wrote:All,
I would like you to read the Indian interests thread about how the Europeans brought in group identities and divided to rule. My point is that over three hundred years we had splittism fostered and nutrured in the name of group identity in Hindusthan that was Bharat. Lets make a conscious effort to not use group identities any more. Unfortunately Congress festered the colonial mindest via their minions and thugs in society.

As long as administrative procedures promote nepotism or caste-favoritism or both, caste identities will stay as counter-reaction.

eg recently, three Gujarat High Court judges interviewed some 400 candidates and recruited some 25 Magistrates. Such procedures lead to rampant nepotism and since three HCjs belong to upper caste, their relatives or friends relatives also belonged to upper caste.

In China, the judges are recruited by written exams and interviews have very less weightage. And they are taken by randomized panels. eg 1000 candidates will be interviews by 100 interview-takers. The 100 interview takers will be divided to 20 groups at random at last moment. And interview-giver give interviews to 5-8 panels chosen at random. So much randomness that even God cant do fixing and nepotism. So there is no nepotism and no fixing.

So unless we fix administration, lower castes will keep getting raw deal, and follow their caste leaders as recourse.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 23 Jan 2014 21:40

AAP is avoiding its demise by not taking a position, how long do you think AAP can maintain its round-base-Lota? We cannot expect the media to highlight this, can BJP/NaMo or any other entities instigate AAP to take sides?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 23 Jan 2014 21:45