Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 28 Mar 2014 19:56

I feel this sabir ali move has been well calculated to break the ranks of the 'secular' crowd. Remember swami mentioning strategy about dividing the muslim vote. I think battle now is being taken into the heart of secular ranks. A battle of moscow redux maybe.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 28 Mar 2014 21:37

RajeshA, I understand there has to be some realpolitik involved in election season and as long as it makes NaMo that much close to the PMship so be it. To be fair to NaMo, he hasn't played favourites and am fine with that kind of secularism. I doubt NaMo will be suddenly bit by Nehru bug after election.
That said, what is the net effect of this move? The crowd which is upset about Mutalik inclusion may not be rejoicing when somebody like Shabir Ali joins. Whose votes is he bringing in? Or as Sanku says, he may have other uses and not just electorally.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 28 Mar 2014 21:39

muraliravi wrote:
BTW Nielsen has a MH poll

NDA : 31
UPA: 13
MNS: 1
AAP: 0
Others (who are also NDA): 3

Looks good for BJP, I was a little worried on MH. Hope other polls confirm the same.

This is actually good news. Has the overall trend over months shown any increase? AFAIK, this seems like a sudden jump.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Mar 2014 21:55

acc to teitter sabir ali expelled

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Mar 2014 22:07

saravana wrote:RajeshA, I understand there has to be some realpolitik involved in election season and as long as it makes NaMo that much close to the PMship so be it. To be fair to NaMo, he hasn't played favourites and am fine with that kind of secularism. I doubt NaMo will be suddenly bit by Nehru bug after election.
That said, what is the net effect of this move? The crowd which is upset about Mutalik inclusion may not be rejoicing when somebody like Shabir Ali joins. Whose votes is he bringing in? Or as Sanku says, he may have other uses and not just electorally.

NaMo is trying to dig the grave of both RJD and JD(U) in Bihar. Every time NaMo weakens one of them, perception rises among the peacefuls that the other is stronger, so their support should better go to the other.

Lately NaMo took away both Ram Vilas Paswan as well as Ram Kripal Yadav from RJD, Lalu's right-hand man, so to say. That means the faithful must be thinking that Nitish is the stronger party among the two, and so the faithful would start migrating to Nitish. Now Nitish too needs to be shrunk a few sizes, especially as he is making a move to get the Muslim vote.

Sabir Ali can be effectively used to cut down Nitish to size. NaMo is using Nitish's own weapons to give him a good thrashing. Imagine Sabir Ali going out and talking about how Nitish is hardly a died-in-the-wool secular or how little Nitish has really done for the welfare and progress of the Muslims in Bihar.

An MJ Akbar cannot deliver the same message.

If NaMo does this right, he can cause a complete collapse of both RJD and JD(U) in the coming elections, and that means Nitish's govt too collapses, with more seats and prizes waiting to be won by BJP.

Winning majorities is as much about winning over the voters as playing a strategy game well.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 28 Mar 2014 22:17

watching MJ Akbar and sabir Ali on TV singing namo namo - great!
Look on the face of sardesais and bdutts - priceless!

guys, what has been done has been done. now if you kick sabir ali out, it will hand everyone else a stick to beat bhajpa with.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 28 Mar 2014 22:23

saravana wrote:
muraliravi wrote:
BTW Nielsen has a MH poll

NDA : 31
UPA: 13
MNS: 1
AAP: 0
Others (who are also NDA): 3

Looks good for BJP, I was a little worried on MH. Hope other polls confirm the same.
This is actually good news. Has the overall trend over months shown any increase? AFAIK, this seems like a sudden jump.

ABP Nielsen Jan Poll

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/01/25/b ... 83286.html

Meanwhile, Maharashtra with 48 seats will see a rising NDA again with BJP leading the tally with 19 seats, Shiv Sena is projected to get 8 seats. Raj Thackeray’s MNS will get 3 seats, while Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP takes a beating with 8 seats each and others are projected to get 6 seats.

So in Jan NDA was 27, UPA 16. I think they have the MNS and Others numbers screwed in niticentral link, since it has to add to 48.

ABP Nielsen Feb Poll

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/02/22/b ... 92703.html

The BJP would win 21 of the 40 seats in Bihar and 19 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra, where its ally Shiv Sena is predicted to win 9 seats. The Congress’s tally in Maharashtra would be confined to 7 seats.

So in Feb, NDA was at 28.

So yes, there is a slow and steady improvement according to nielsen. Will see if csds confirms the same.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 28 Mar 2014 22:36

Fact :

1) Sabir Ali was expelled from JDU. It implies that he was a problem for Niku's JDU.
2) Sabir Ali was one of the 65 MPs who had signed the Visa Ban Request. That implies his change of heart was a blow to Pseudo-Seculars.
3) Sabir Ali has been holding back his punches compared to his colleagues in crime. That implies something was cooking and the only one capable of cooking things in BJP is the NaMo team.
4) Sabir Ali is not to be inducted has come after the controversy. A controversy immediately after the controversy about the Muttalik. Suspicion arises that it was a counter attack. The decision is said to be of RSS that surely implies some sort of fire fighting and beech-bachav. My suspicion is also that the very people who were going on and on about D4 got taken in by a propaganda that could only have benefited D4

.
5) Sabir Ali is a politician (Kootnitigyan). His friggin job is to lie knowing fully well the truth. It is only the leader (Rajnitigyan) who has to speak the truth to his followers and Sabir Ali is no leader. That he is too good at it should go ideally to his credit. MJA is supposed to be an intellectual (supposedly nearer to truth) with the job to speak out the truth but he lies at least once (either in 2002 or in 2014). That should ideally go to his debit. Instead the reaction has been the exact opposite. Conphusing for me little mind.
6) At the end of the day you have to ask yourself. Induction of Sabir Ali is a threat or an opportunity? How does it look like to the twisted side of your existence. Is it so difficult to get nearer to the twisted side.

It is a tough campaign to manage for the oldies at Nagpur. Kahan phans gaye bechare. Social service was so much more easier.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 28 Mar 2014 22:39

The momentum effect - i.e. progressively a party gets more and more votes and the rival decreases; has a big effect during election. This factor is never captured that distinctly in opinion poll, (maybe overlooked as noise or error). That is how BJP started as favorite in 2004, but gradually Cong kept on creeping up, survey after survey or even in 2009, BJP started fine but Con was getting better at each survey.
What that means is, within the junta, for good or bad, their is a bias that gets reinforced as more and more people join it, bigger it gets, it attracts more people. This time, praying to God, it should help BJP.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Mar 2014 22:51

^^^The momentum is NAMO. If the 185 NAMO rallies all happen as planned, then it will indeed affect polling. Shehzada and side show AK-49 are a damp squib.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 28 Mar 2014 22:55

Thanks RajeshA and muraliravi.

Devendra · Post by **Devendra** » 28 Mar 2014 23:02

Getting news from friends in western UP that Jats are shifitng back to Ajit singh. If this is true then there is going to be a significant down fall in BJP seats in this region.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 28 Mar 2014 23:13

ravi_g wrote:Fact :
4) Sabir Ali is not to be inducted has come after the controversy. A controversy immediately after the controversy about the Muttalik. Suspicion arises that it was a counter attack. The decision is said to be of RSS that surely implies some sort of fire fighting and beech-bachav. My suspicion is also that the very people who were going on and on about D4 got taken in by a propaganda that could only have benefited D4 .
5.

Ravi ji

This is making lot of sense, looks like Sabir Ali coming in was cooking for a while and D4 knew and were unhappy, Mutalik was conter move to screw Namo... guess what it did not work. But issue I have is why Muktar on twitter...is he manipulated too

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Mar 2014 23:17

Uma Bharati says:

Cant leave Jhansi for Bareli

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Mar 2014 23:19

Rampy, Maybe Muktar Naqvi feels rivalry and supplanted by Sabbir Ali in the local region. So he need not be part of any group.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 28 Mar 2014 23:24

ramana wrote:Rampy, Maybe Muktar Naqvi feels rivalry and supplanted by Sabbir Ali in the local region. So he need not be part of any group.

Ramana garu Muktar Naqvi is from UP, and Sabir Ali from Bihar. No connection at all.

disha · Post by **disha** » 28 Mar 2014 23:43

Devendra wrote:Getting news from friends in western UP that Jats are shifitng back to Ajit singh. If this is true then there is going to be a significant down fall in BJP seats in this region.

It is called jockeying for positions to get the best "deal". Elections is a mere formality.

Both communist china and democratic US should learn from us. They are #pappus, particularly the americans, in this game.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 28 Mar 2014 23:46

ramana wrote:Rampy, Maybe Muktar Naqvi feels rivalry and supplanted by Sabbir Ali in the local region. So he need not be part of any group.

I guess Sabir Ali challenges him in his delhi bastion. As someone pointed out, cong or secular media is not saying a word on his induction... I think we are unnecessarily getting excited about this, it all depends on where he does campaigning

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Mar 2014 00:11

ramana wrote:Rampy, Maybe Muktar Naqvi feels rivalry and supplanted by Sabbir Ali in the local region. So he need not be part of any group.

Mukhtar Naqvi is a Shia, and in case Sabir Ali happens to be associated with the more hardline type of Sunnis, as could be the case, if Yasin Bhatkal stayed at his place, then I guess, a moderate Shia could have reservations.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 29 Mar 2014 00:28

Devendra wrote:Getting news from friends in western UP that Jats are shifitng back to Ajit singh. If this is true then there is going to be a significant down fall in BJP seats in this region.

Abrutis fantastiques méritent tous la merde qu'ils obtiennent.

If Jats cannot see friend from foe, then only Narayana can help them.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Mar 2014 00:37

Devendra wrote:Getting news from friends in western UP that Jats are shifitng back to Ajit singh. If this is true then there is going to be a significant down fall in BJP seats in this region.

Good, they deserve it. And actually BJP did good in this matter by not giving too many tickets/focus to them. It is not that BJP ignored them, but they did not go overboard, because they only know too well how unreliable a group jats are when it comes to voting for BJP.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 29 Mar 2014 00:37

RajeshA wrote:
ramana wrote:Rampy, Maybe Muktar Naqvi feels rivalry and supplanted by Sabbir Ali in the local region. So he need not be part of any group.
Mukhtar Naqvi is a Shia, and in case Sabir Ali happens to be associated with the more hardline type of Sunnis, as could be the case, if Yasin Bhatkal stayed at his place, then I guess, a moderate Shia could have reservations.

Based on the surname Ali sounds like Shia.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 29 Mar 2014 01:20

Muslim vote is a myth except for 10% (or x%) that have voted BJP, there may be some increase, not significant. Unless Modi is seeing numbers, and he says without that extra x% we cannot win so lets go for the broke (as in 2004, in between when BJP saw that MSY is winning and NDA will not, they started singing +vly about him)

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 02:07

Every single news article, interview and Tweets that Modi gets Muslim votes is pure psyops to get BJP to hara-kiri and start wearing white caps. They want to create a wedge between its pumped up cadre and leaders. The reality is not a seat winnable percentage.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 29 Mar 2014 02:14

link
Winning margin less than 35,000 in 34 constituencies

Makes effects of infiltration from across the border very stark. 34 seats are huge by any calculations.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Mar 2014 02:22

KK Rajasthani ‏@KKKRajasthani 2m
Who welcomed Sabir ali in BJP ? Sudhanshu trivedi...he is amit shah of Rajnath singh....

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Mar 2014 03:37

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140329/j ... zX61_l_uSB
naqvi threatens to quit BJP

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 29 Mar 2014 04:44

For some reason, I believe this naatka is orchestrated by Modi/Amit team, and I hope it is not the Bechara Janata Party (a.k.a Bimar Janata Party, a.k.a BJP). I am not unduly worried, maybe it is the blind trust in MAT (Modi/Amit Team), or the current times. And getting in a muslim leader here or there is not going to make or break the chances. Muslims are not going to vote in bulk. It is all a chess game, and hopefully plans don't backfire.

BTW, is INC still sitting on the 2011 census data?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Mar 2014 05:08

At 7.42 he starts asking right Q. How come Gandhi not responsible for Bhagat Singh, Rajguru, Sukhdev's death? How about millons died in partition,then in malnutritiopn etc. He talks about GyanPurval Gussa / Righteous Rosh of Sadhu.
Jabbe Baan Laagyo, Tabbe Rosh Jaagyo!!

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 29 Mar 2014 05:27

Ramdev wants Sonia-Uma clash in Rae Bareli

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j23e07NkexA

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Mar 2014 09:22

rvishwak wrote:
RajeshA wrote:What I fail to understand is why can't we ask BJP to throw out Sabir Ali after the elections? Why are we making a big thing out of it just before the elections?
Yes keep him till elections, would be a reality check for Nikumma who keeps on saying that there is no NAMO wave.
BJP can always say, "Niku dear, now you see the wave which blew Sabir Ali from JD(U) to BJP"

two points:

1. naqvi felt sidelined about induction of sabir ali. for quite sometime naqvi has been BJP's minority face, and hence he felt offended when sudhanshu trivedi and co. decided to take sabir ali with hundreds of his followers with in BJP-fold. NaMo and RNS should assure naqvi that his own position won't be diluted. may be naqvi nurtured a secret dream of getting a ticket to contest this time, but RNS kept him with party organizational duties.

2. whether sabir ali is close to jihadists or not, the moot question - 'is there any cwarrant against him?' if not, he can stay in BJP as long as he is useful to (a) keep the secularists quiet, and (b) how many extra vote does he bring. if his induction can bring a few seats in bijar then more powaa to NaMo. let ali stay in bjp as long as it is advantageous for the hindutva forces. he can be like those few African amaericans for hispanics within the GOP.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Mar 2014 10:07

I had a few talks with Sadananda Gowda's campaign managers. The general feeling is that BJP has scored a huge self goal. Many people on the coast are hopping mad about Bhatkal (they suffered Bhatkal's atrocities long before the IM poster boy made it big on the national scene), and BJP, by getting a terrorist sympathiser, has destroyed its USP of being a nationalist party. But then - I suspect secularisation of the BJP is underway, and like the animals in Animal Farm, we will be left looking in dismay at the coming BJP government. I don't know what the joys of secularism are, but judging by its attraction to BJP folk, there is something I cannot fathom.

What is even more interesting is the complete lack of outrage on this board from the ones who were fulminating against the evil of Muthalik. So - it is okay if a IM sympathiser is inducted into BJP, but terrible if a Yindoo fundamentalist is inducted? Goes to show just how deep Indian secularism runs even on this board.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 29 Mar 2014 10:34

we can do without the likes of sabir ali, plain and simple, if he has a dubious record. he is the kind of IM the BJP can do well without, irrespective of whether he brings votes in. mr naqvi is right, plain and simple.
i think NaMo has outsourced a lot of candidate selection while he focuses on speeches, campaigning, to the state managers and this sort of brilliance will keep occurring. can't help it. but wrong nonetheless.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 29 Mar 2014 10:37

>>>I don't know what the joys of secularism are, but judging by its attraction to BJP folk, there is something I cannot fathom.

there is a desire amongst all demonized groups to basically grab at any olive branch, however misleading or poison pill it may be.
so germans are often over compensating in online conversations & elsewhere by being 10x anti nazi even today, despite having no direct link to what their so called ancestors did. some jews go nutso when some pal muslim group reaches out to them, and locally, we see BJP reacting like a kid offered a candy when somebody vouches for their secularism.

human nature.. with all its foibles.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Mar 2014 10:56

nageshks wrote:... So - it is okay if a IM sympathiser is inducted into BJP, but terrible if a Yindoo fundamentalist is inducted? Goes to show just how deep Indian secularism runs even on this board.

No. It goes to show how some of us know that winning this election is very crucial. The BJP/NDA must win at ANY cost. Yes, you heard that right - winning at any cost. The alternatives are just too horrible and one must pick between the lesser of 2 or 3 evils.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Mar 2014 11:03

Mort Walker wrote: No. It goes to show how some of us know that winning this election is very crucial. The BJP/NDA must win at ANY cost. Yes, you heard that right - winning at any cost. The alternatives are just too horrible and one must pick between the lesser of 2 or 3 evils.

How exactly are you going to win an election with the help of an IM sympathiser and kicking down your own volunteers?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Mar 2014 11:15

^^^The assumption is that volunteers would not come if an IM sympathizer is given a ticket, and perhaps that would be true in normal election circumstances, but this time around it it different when the BJP has a capable candidate being projected as the PM - therefore the volunteers would come anyway.

This sort of problem will always be there for each and every party. The only way to truly eliminate it is to do away with giving tickets to run for a political party and have a primary election, caucus or straw poll to select the candidate for your party.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2014 11:45

Imo BJP hq needs to impose a new rule that all such new hires must be referred to central electoral board for approval given the delicate time

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Mar 2014 11:54

Mort Walker wrote:^^^The assumption is that volunteers would not come if an IM sympathizer is given a ticket, and perhaps that would be true in normal election circumstances, but this time around it it different when the BJP has a capable candidate being projected as the PM - therefore the volunteers would come anyway.

No, it is not. Today, Sadananda Gowda had a hard time explaining the BJP actions to his volunteers. Many people asked him why he doesn't get IM to campaign for him, but wants Hindutva folk, when his party clearly does not care about national interests. He promised to convey their sentiments and get action soon. The effect on the coast is 10 times worse. I won't be surprised if BJP loses all three seats on the coast in Karnataka now.

TINA was what Vajpayee banked on - that he could kick his volunteers as much as he wanted and they would still come. They didn't for Vajpayee, and they won't for NaMo. What you forget is that plenty of volunteers are personally well off. They have far less personal stakes than the Congress volunteers. If Modi is seen as backing IM terrorists, they will leave him to dry.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 29 Mar 2014 11:57

Rampy wrote:Ravi ji

This is making lot of sense, looks like Sabir Ali coming in was cooking for a while and D4 knew and were unhappy, Mutalik was conter move to screw Namo... guess what it did not work. But issue I have is why Muktar on twitter...is he manipulated too

I am thinking about this from a longer range perspective 5-10 years with NaMo at the helm or much longer without him.

Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi (MAN) has burned his bridges with the Islamists. His only hope is a support from the general Hindu community or from so much of the Muslim community that may decide to vote for him some day for some reason. Muslims voting for BJP, is only difficult, not impossible (as much as all Hindus voting for NaMo is not possible). NaMo has proven that in Gujarat Municipal Elections. Muslims may not vote in the national elections for BJP but that is with the scenario where the BJP leadership itself was not upto the mark in the political machinations department. Most of old BJP got played instead of playing the game.

NaMo in effect is the first among the Sanghis who understands Machinations well and has a strong sense of survival. I will not be surprised if as a PM, NaMo decides to create an ecology where MAN and some more like him are asked to focus on the Muslim community with a distinct but supporting strategy of causing a churn in the Muslim community. This will obviously confuse 80-90% muslims and divide them but it will most likely also cause some (tukka -> 10-15%) to vote for BJP lead govts. (for example in Goa, MP, Raj, Guj).

Sabir Ali is an islamist but then the whole Muslim population of UP/Bihar (even beyond) is one. You do not even have to research these people. They open their mouth and you know it. Sabir Ali inside BJP is not conducive for MAN. MAN has time on his side, is articulate with better understanding of his own ecology. He needs is to up the quality of his game and somebody who can bet upon him. I also believe MAN is the right person to be offered as an option to those muslims who can be convinced, to get out of the Islamist stranglehold (Not MJA, not Sabir, not Shahnawaz Hussein).

But Sabir and MJA are not long range projects. In fact in the case of Sabir – even for him BJP cannot be a long range bet.

Jane do, chalta hai. Win the elections first. 1 month before poll, is not the time for debate. Politics is the art of the possible and there would be a lot many more opportunities. Being able to spot an opportunity is more important than arguing over a lost one.