SwamyG wrote:It is kind of worrying that Congress thinks 160-seats are in play, apart from their sure-seats. Dirty tricks or not, if they manage to get 140+, then Modi Sarkar is in doubt. So let us not count the chickens before they hatch, though it is so nice to dream and build castles in the air.
Times of India yesterday had an article about how opinion polls cannot be relied upon as they proved wrong in the last two LS elections and Cong got huge number of seats. This, coupled with recent news about EVMs being found rigged in favour of everyone except Cong, has made me think that appropriate noises have begun to be made to prepare people for EVM fraud. Now it seems Cong is "watching" 160 seats where it has a good chance. You can put two and two together.
Times of India is a Cong whore and all trial balloons of this mafia party are first floated there. It is so obvious that the last two UPA wins were totally due to EVM fraud as the difference between opinion polls and the number of seats it got was staggering and couldn't be explained by anything as opinion polls had never proven so wide off the mark before in any election.
Why opinion polls are often wide of the mark
Initial opinion polls suggested that NDA was going to sweep the elections. According to poll results of India Today-ORG Marg, published in February 2004, NDA was supposed to get 330-340 seats while Congress and allies were to be confined to 105-115. Later the predictions were revised to 260-286 for NDA and 154-180 for Congress and allies. Then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee became so confident by what the opinion polls had to say that in an April 17 rally at Nagpur (three days before the elections), he expressed his discomfort with the coalition government and said, "My worry now is, if we are again saddled with a 22-party coalition... such a situation is better avoided." Perhaps he was indicating that it would be easier to govern the country if his party secured a majority. The results, however, shocked BJP as NDA was reduced to 185 seats, while Congress and allies won in 217 constituencies.
In the 1999 elections as well, the initial poll predictions suggested that NDA would emerge a clear winner. An opinion poll conducted by DRS for TOI for the August 5-9 period — about a month before the elections — suggested that NDA would get 332 seats while Congress and allies would manage only 138. India Today-Insight opinion poll also confirmed TOI's prediction, giving 322-336 seats to NDA and 132-146 to Congress and allies. Both opinion polls suggested that BJP and Congress would increase their individual tally by cutting into the votes of regional parties.
The newspapers were full of stories about a "Vajpayee wave", which was the focus of BJP's election campaign. A news report based on TNS MODE survey even suggested that Sushma Swaraj was going to beat Sonia Gandhi in Bellary. The estimates were later revised to 279-336 for NDA and 132-162 for Congress and allies — much closer to the actual results. Swaraj, however, lost from Bellary and state parties won 162 seats.
Opinion polls for 1998 and 1996 elections were, however, closer to the actual results. Why do opinion polls tend to favour a particular coalition while underplaying others? First, unlike Western countries, India's population is not homogeneous — caste, religion and region play an important factor in elections. Also, people, particularly from the weaker section of society, are reluctant to reveal which party they are going to vote. BJP might be getting overplayed because the main support base of the party is the middle class — a section which is not afraid of any post-election harassment and hence they are vocal in sharing their views. On the contrary, key voters of other parties are from vulnerable sections of society and hence they are afraid to share their opinion. (The reporter here still cannot explain why opinion polls for 1998 and 1996 were accurate despite all these limitations)
Experts also argue that opinion polls work much better in bipolar elections. In India, where elections are multi-cornered, it is possible that pollsters fail to estimate the strength of regional parties.
Notice how the article above is careful to avoid mentioning that EVMs were introduced in 2004, the same year from which opinion polls began to go haywire.
The following figures are from the graphic in the above story. It gives opinion polls figures while actual seats achieved are in brackets. Notice how from 2004 when EVMs were introduced, opinion polls began to be wide off the mark when they were totally accurate earlier.
1996: BJP+ 189-215 (187); Cong+ 142-170 (143)
1998: BJP+ 234-254 (234); Cong+ 149-165 (144)
1999: BJP+ 279-336 (297); Cong+ 132-162 (134)
2004: BJP+ 260-286 (185); Cong+ 154-180 (217)
2009: BJP+ 165-186 (157); Cong+ 201-235 (262)
Someone most gullible or an extreme skeptic will not be able to see through the game. Why is Cong dragging its feet in introducing paper trail for EVMs despite supreme court orders? Communists protested against the nuclear deal, and the next year they lost badly in elections for first time in 30 years. How much proof someone need for EVM fraud? In this case, what are the chances of Modi coming to power? I feel they are nill. Congress has to swing an extra 25 seats its way and the game is over for BJP. Most likely a third front Govt. will come to power with Cong support.
Madhu Trehan tweets that she talked to Cong people and they were totally smug and confident that they will form the Government come what may!
Only AAP had a stall with 3 demoralised members manning it. 
