Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 17 Apr 2014 20:51

Sara Laxji,
Passed on information to Karyavaah about KK Nagar.Hes a RSS,not a BJP Kaaryavaah,but hes involved in campaigning.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 20:56

Arjun wrote:
SaiK wrote:543 give thumbs up for congress over bjp in KA.
Where are you seeing this ?...The last message is of Anant Kumar leading over NN. Their EOD blog should be out later today.

http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Apr 2014 21:00

Is Narendra Bhai heading towards a Rajiv Gandhi like mandate of 84?
read it at 543 jingos!!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 21:02

mm.. his tweets are based on his opinion poll methods? (which itself is not validated yet)

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 21:04

http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/

Based on sampling in today's poll

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 17 Apr 2014 21:08

Rajiv Gandhi/ConI won 416 seats in 1984 ! I'd be happy if BJP alone can manage 220-230. Anything above that will be a bonus, but 220 should be sufficient for Modi to have a relatively trouble free 5 years.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 17 Apr 2014 21:13

vivek.rao wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/

Based on sampling in today's poll

The link is only for those who have paid accounts, not publicly visible

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 21:39

272 is what will make him create an impact and remove dynastic rulings. else all these sound and noise gets muddled into kangrez korruption model sneaking thru back door!

sum · Post by **sum** » 17 Apr 2014 21:47

Interesting article ( though half of it is Sheela mausi's hot air):
Babudom waits with bated breath: Will it be Modi?

And if, in the quite unlikely circumstance of the BJP and Modi's mammoth election campaign proving to be another disaster -- an India Shining Part Two -- then this majestic office will witness political turbulence for which the cosy establishment here is unprepared for after 10 long years of stillness and calm under Dr Manmohan Singh's silent leadership.

This report published on Rediff.com on Wednesday points to the establishment's thought process on Raisina Hill.

These days, wherever you go to the PMO or Shastri Bhavan, you see that infamous animal called the Establishment staring into the wilderness. Few government secretaries have very reluctantly started thinking about: What If Modi Comes...

The jolt is laced with fear and vagueness because Modi is an outsider. Nobody knows him, really. Nobody has met him casually. He is an "unknown commodity".

I was surprised when a distinguished official close to the prime minister asked, "Who will be his men?" Frankly, nobody has an idea. Hardly seven weeks are left for a regime change, but the idea of Modi on Raisina Hill looks abnormal, if not unreal.

In fact, even though a few people have started speculating about Modi's Cabinet and his officials in the PMO, the discussion ends abruptly because their own exposure to Modi is nil.

Those who are comfortable only with the Congress party at the helm of affairs think that dark days are descending on New Delhi where the "unknown facet of Modi" will unravel as soon as he occupies the seat of power. The Modi campaign that has spread a magical charm over voters, they feel, will end sooner than later.

In the bureaucracy, there are enough babus who say that after the 2G scam emerged, the government's decision-making machinery has been paralysed. The National Democratic Alliance or Modi, whoever comes to power, will surely revive it. And that will make all the difference to the country and its governance, they claim.

These babus, who are realists, want to know more about the "Modi style of functioning" in order to get ready. Everywhere, one hears a mixed reaction to "Will Modi come or not?" or "Will he falter or not?"

One of the more mature response Rediff.com encountered was from a senior official well-versed with India's foreign policy and Dr Singh's philosophy of governance. "If Modi becomes PM," this official said, "he will fare well for the first 18 months. He will sail smooth on diplomacy because nobody can afford to ignore India, so he will have an advantage. The neighbourhood and even a country like the US will invite him, praise him and he will turn it to his advantage. But his troubles could start after one-and-a-half years, when he will have to take it to the next level."

amitvora · Post by **amitvora** » 17 Apr 2014 21:49

Regarding 5forty3.in. From what I read on his tweets, he is already revising the BJP vote share down because what he is seeing in data is mind boggling. Meaning - he is seeing such a huge percentage of vote share for BJP, that he is thinking that it is not possible. So he is erring on side of caution and revising it downwards. This would also explain his article about India and its 30 year cycle.

I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 17 Apr 2014 22:01

>>I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.[/quote]

How did you do it. I did it in excel without 5fourty3 data based on guesses. Number came to 262... 265 +- 5 seats .. Not 272 for BJP

For BJP to get 282 to 300 : Where will the seats comes . Orissa 7-8 ; WB 3-4 ; TN : 3-4 ; Kerala 2-3.

Eastern Fort is breached... I am SHocked.

NOTE : I want NaMo to Deputy PM and Home Minister who makes BJP truly pan INDIAN entity... BJP for next 30 years then

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 17 Apr 2014 22:02

Well the numbers required above for OD, WB, KL and TN certainly possible.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 22:04

sum, The Rediff article must reflect the views of dilli durbar as Baji Rao redux approaches to sack Delhi!!!

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 22:06

chandturakhia wrote:>>I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.

How did you do it. I did it in excel without 5fourty3 data based on guesses. Number came to 262... 265 +- 5 seats .. Not 272 for BJP

For BJP to get 282 to 300 : Where will the seats comes . Orissa 7-8 ; WB 3-4 ; TN : 3-4 ; Kerala 2-3.

Eastern Fort is breached... I am SHocked.

NOTE : I want NaMo to Deputy PM and Home Minister who makes BJP truly pan INDIAN entity... BJP for next 30 years then

He is talking about 2/3 majority for NDA. 2/3 is not a joke. But that's what he is indicating.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 17 Apr 2014 22:07

IB and other spooks must be burning mid night oil to answer Madam ji directly bypassing MMS chodiwala about the trap doors or hatches that are open to get into Alitalia flights to Turin

Shroud of Turin time has come as Varsha didi used to say

sum · Post by **sum** » 17 Apr 2014 22:10

^^ Not sure if the IB folks are even on talking terms with INC top brass after the Ishrat Jahan fiasco and already knowing that their masters will change, will they even heed to any requests?

Wonder how much INC might have been hamstrung in this elections due to babudom already supporting NaMo/BJP discreetly ( leaks to media/inaccurate poll predictions by IB political divsions etc) knowing that INC will anyways get routed?

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 17 Apr 2014 22:10

amitvora wrote:Regarding 5forty3.in. From what I read on his tweets, he is already revising the BJP vote share down because what he is seeing in data is mind boggling. Meaning - he is seeing such a huge percentage of vote share for BJP, that he is thinking that it is not possible. So he is erring on side of caution and revising it downwards. This would also explain his article about India and its 30 year cycle.

I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.

This is what I have been saying, and I believe this has been articulated by others as well, in this forum. These elections are different - vastly so, from anything we have seen in the past. A great many parameters that were used to try (repeat, try) and predict results do not hold good for 2014. This includes caste orientations etc.

I do believe that we are going to see results that will shock us. Pleasurably so. And shake the p-secs, CONgis and the paid-MSMs right down to their boot-straps.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 22:11

What is the Twitter saying? Any other info/sorces validating what 5Forty3.in says?

amitvora · Post by **amitvora** » 17 Apr 2014 22:13

I will post my numbers tonight. The file is at home and I am at work now. I tried to be as optimistic as possible with the polling trends and the numbers being reflected. Once I had my numbers for a certain states, I would remove few seats or add a few. I also went conservatively in the south.
With regards to what I said earlier about 5fotry3 tweets - Here's what he said on his tweet: "#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!! "

If he is seeing bjp vote share with mind bogglind % (this is before he publishes for us because he is revising it downwards when he is publishing), then we have to start thinking about 280 or higher for BJP alone.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 22:15

two things can happen to 543 logic: he screwed up his data or the data screwed him up.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 22:21

Very saikological inference!!!

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 17 Apr 2014 22:22

Nijalingappa wrote:IB and other spooks must be burning mid night oil to answer Madam ji directly bypassing MMS chodiwala about the trap doors or hatches that are open to get into Alitalia flights to Turin

Shroud of Turin time has come as Varsha didi used to say

Oh, I miss Varsha Bhosle! I wonder what her take on the Rise of NaMo would be

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 17 Apr 2014 22:23

nda bjp
UP 70 70
Maharastra 40 20
MP 28 28
Andhra Pradesh 25 6
Bihar 35 25
Rajasthan 24 24
Gujarat 26 26
Karnataka 18 18
Chattisgarh 9 9
Punjab 9 4
Haryana 4 3
Tamil Nadu 6 2
Assam 4 3
Delhi 6 6
Orissa 8 8
HP 3 3
Goa 2 2
WB 6 2
Andaman & Nicobar 1 1
Arunchal Pradesh 1 1
Dui Daman 1 1
J&K 4 4
Kerala 2 2
Chandigarh 1 1
Lakshadweep 0
Manipur 0
Meghalaya 0
Pucherry 0
Tripura 0
Uttachal 4 3
337 272

For BJP to get 272 : UP should give 70 which is too difficult.... Mostly 60 seats and hence number is 327 262

Team : Can we start making per seat predictions ... Some excel with 543 columns and add probability...
I will stick with BJP getting 262 after today's show

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 22:24

We need Dilbu saab comforting words right now ...

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 17 Apr 2014 22:26

[quote="chandturakhia"]nda bjp

Can team validate each of my numbers in excel... I can volunter to maintain excel sheet with probability. We can also do on Google docs.

Chand

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 17 Apr 2014 22:30

ramana wrote:sum, The Rediff article must reflect the views of dilli durbar as Baji Rao redux approaches to sack Delhi!!!

Was that Baji Rao who was seen riding horse,wearing simple clothes, Spear not held in hand but balanced on his shoulder and eating roasted Channas ?. Modi fits the description.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 17 Apr 2014 22:33

In JN Sarkar's book, There is a colorful description of Baji Rao meeting Jai Singh Singh where he compares Baji Rao's rouh manners like smoking hookah into Jai singh's face and Jai singh's smooth and polished manners....It is like Hemu's coming to Delhi.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Apr 2014 22:34

A 2/3rds majority is not possible unless a miracle happens in east and south.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 17 Apr 2014 22:37

Breaking news on Z-news, EC lifts ban imposed on Amit Shah, for election rallies and speeches. Rather good news!

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 22:37

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/ls-el ... 140417.htm
TDP flip flop

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 17 Apr 2014 22:39

^^Guys. Don't count the chickens before they are hatched. Let us wait to see some real data before overreacting...

archan · Post by **archan** » 17 Apr 2014 22:41

Did they do an = = vis-a-vis Azam Khan or no?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 22:43

rgsrini wrote:^^Guys. Don't count the chickens before they are hatched. Let us wait to see some real data before overreacting...

100% agree

Things are going OK according to some of the data.

But lets not get euphoric like we did in 2004

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Apr 2014 22:44

with TDP flip now getting bare minimum majority is looking difficult ::(

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 22:46

Modi Interview on Times Now just now.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Apr 2014 22:47

Yes, I think we are over-reacting based on one website.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 22:49

from where do you get 6 seats for NDA in WB while 2 for bjp ? who are those partners who will give 4 to nda ?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 22:49

north bound for orchestrations
south bound for robust structures

that is the only way to get 272++

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 17 Apr 2014 22:52

chandturakhia

4 seats in J&K ??
On what basis ?

1 Jammu seat : 66 % chance of winning
2nd seat, Udhampur : 55% chance of winning

Which are 3rd and 4th seats ?
Laddakh is a long chance.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Apr 2014 22:55

No point discussing numbers until everything is done.