Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Sara Laxji,
Passed on information to Karyavaah about KK Nagar.Hes a RSS,not a BJP Kaaryavaah,but hes involved in campaigning.
Passed on information to Karyavaah about KK Nagar.Hes a RSS,not a BJP Kaaryavaah,but hes involved in campaigning.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/Arjun wrote:Where are you seeing this ?...The last message is of Anant Kumar leading over NN. Their EOD blog should be out later today.SaiK wrote:543 give thumbs up for congress over bjp in KA.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Is Narendra Bhai heading towards a Rajiv Gandhi like mandate of 84?
read it at 543 jingos!!
read it at 543 jingos!!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
mm.. his tweets are based on his opinion poll methods? (which itself is not validated yet)
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Rajiv Gandhi/ConI won 416 seats in 1984 ! I'd be happy if BJP alone can manage 220-230. Anything above that will be a bonus, but 220 should be sufficient for Modi to have a relatively trouble free 5 years.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
The link is only for those who have paid accounts, not publicly visiblevivek.rao wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/
Based on sampling in today's poll
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
272 is what will make him create an impact and remove dynastic rulings. else all these sound and noise gets muddled into kangrez korruption model sneaking thru back door!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Interesting article ( though half of it is Sheela mausi's hot air):
Babudom waits with bated breath: Will it be Modi?
Babudom waits with bated breath: Will it be Modi?
And if, in the quite unlikely circumstance of the BJP and Modi's mammoth election campaign proving to be another disaster -- an India Shining Part Two -- then this majestic office will witness political turbulence for which the cosy establishment here is unprepared for after 10 long years of stillness and calm under Dr Manmohan Singh's silent leadership.
This report published on Rediff.com on Wednesday points to the establishment's thought process on Raisina Hill.
These days, wherever you go to the PMO or Shastri Bhavan, you see that infamous animal called the Establishment staring into the wilderness. Few government secretaries have very reluctantly started thinking about: What If Modi Comes...
The jolt is laced with fear and vagueness because Modi is an outsider. Nobody knows him, really. Nobody has met him casually. He is an "unknown commodity".
I was surprised when a distinguished official close to the prime minister asked, "Who will be his men?" Frankly, nobody has an idea. Hardly seven weeks are left for a regime change, but the idea of Modi on Raisina Hill looks abnormal, if not unreal.
In fact, even though a few people have started speculating about Modi's Cabinet and his officials in the PMO, the discussion ends abruptly because their own exposure to Modi is nil.
Those who are comfortable only with the Congress party at the helm of affairs think that dark days are descending on New Delhi where the "unknown facet of Modi" will unravel as soon as he occupies the seat of power. The Modi campaign that has spread a magical charm over voters, they feel, will end sooner than later.
In the bureaucracy, there are enough babus who say that after the 2G scam emerged, the government's decision-making machinery has been paralysed. The National Democratic Alliance or Modi, whoever comes to power, will surely revive it. And that will make all the difference to the country and its governance, they claim.
These babus, who are realists, want to know more about the "Modi style of functioning" in order to get ready. Everywhere, one hears a mixed reaction to "Will Modi come or not?" or "Will he falter or not?"
One of the more mature response Rediff.com encountered was from a senior official well-versed with India's foreign policy and Dr Singh's philosophy of governance. "If Modi becomes PM," this official said, "he will fare well for the first 18 months. He will sail smooth on diplomacy because nobody can afford to ignore India, so he will have an advantage. The neighbourhood and even a country like the US will invite him, praise him and he will turn it to his advantage. But his troubles could start after one-and-a-half years, when he will have to take it to the next level."
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Regarding 5forty3.in. From what I read on his tweets, he is already revising the BJP vote share down because what he is seeing in data is mind boggling. Meaning - he is seeing such a huge percentage of vote share for BJP, that he is thinking that it is not possible. So he is erring on side of caution and revising it downwards. This would also explain his article about India and its 30 year cycle.
I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.
I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
>>I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.[/quote]
How did you do it. I did it in excel without 5fourty3 data based on guesses. Number came to 262... 265 +- 5 seats .. Not 272 for BJP
For BJP to get 282 to 300 : Where will the seats comes . Orissa 7-8 ; WB 3-4 ; TN : 3-4 ; Kerala 2-3.
Eastern Fort is breached... I am SHocked.
NOTE : I want NaMo to Deputy PM and Home Minister who makes BJP truly pan INDIAN entity... BJP for next 30 years then
How did you do it. I did it in excel without 5fourty3 data based on guesses. Number came to 262... 265 +- 5 seats .. Not 272 for BJP
For BJP to get 282 to 300 : Where will the seats comes . Orissa 7-8 ; WB 3-4 ; TN : 3-4 ; Kerala 2-3.
Eastern Fort is breached... I am SHocked.
NOTE : I want NaMo to Deputy PM and Home Minister who makes BJP truly pan INDIAN entity... BJP for next 30 years then
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Well the numbers required above for OD, WB, KL and TN certainly possible.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
sum, The Rediff article must reflect the views of dilli durbar as Baji Rao redux approaches to sack Delhi!!!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
chandturakhia wrote:>>I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.
He is talking about 2/3 majority for NDA. 2/3 is not a joke. But that's what he is indicating.How did you do it. I did it in excel without 5fourty3 data based on guesses. Number came to 262... 265 +- 5 seats .. Not 272 for BJP
For BJP to get 282 to 300 : Where will the seats comes . Orissa 7-8 ; WB 3-4 ; TN : 3-4 ; Kerala 2-3.
Eastern Fort is breached... I am SHocked.
NOTE : I want NaMo to Deputy PM and Home Minister who makes BJP truly pan INDIAN entity... BJP for next 30 years then
Last edited by vivek.rao on 17 Apr 2014 22:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
IB and other spooks must be burning mid night oil to answer Madam ji directly bypassing MMS chodiwala about the trap doors or hatches that are open to get into Alitalia flights to Turin
Shroud of Turin time has come as Varsha didi used to say
Shroud of Turin time has come as Varsha didi used to say
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
^^ Not sure if the IB folks are even on talking terms with INC top brass after the Ishrat Jahan fiasco and already knowing that their masters will change, will they even heed to any requests?
Wonder how much INC might have been hamstrung in this elections due to babudom already supporting NaMo/BJP discreetly ( leaks to media/inaccurate poll predictions by IB political divsions etc) knowing that INC will anyways get routed?
Wonder how much INC might have been hamstrung in this elections due to babudom already supporting NaMo/BJP discreetly ( leaks to media/inaccurate poll predictions by IB political divsions etc) knowing that INC will anyways get routed?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
This is what I have been saying, and I believe this has been articulated by others as well, in this forum. These elections are different - vastly so, from anything we have seen in the past. A great many parameters that were used to try (repeat, try) and predict results do not hold good for 2014. This includes caste orientations etc.amitvora wrote:Regarding 5forty3.in. From what I read on his tweets, he is already revising the BJP vote share down because what he is seeing in data is mind boggling. Meaning - he is seeing such a huge percentage of vote share for BJP, that he is thinking that it is not possible. So he is erring on side of caution and revising it downwards. This would also explain his article about India and its 30 year cycle.
I calculated roughly 262 seats for BJP (did a count yesterday) based on 5forty3 projections. So if he is already lowering the projections, then anywhere from 282 to 300 is possible for BJP alone.
I do believe that we are going to see results that will shock us. Pleasurably so. And shake the p-secs, CONgis and the paid-MSMs right down to their boot-straps.
Last edited by rajithn on 17 Apr 2014 22:11, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
What is the Twitter saying? Any other info/sorces validating what 5Forty3.in says?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
I will post my numbers tonight. The file is at home and I am at work now. I tried to be as optimistic as possible with the polling trends and the numbers being reflected. Once I had my numbers for a certain states, I would remove few seats or add a few. I also went conservatively in the south.
With regards to what I said earlier about 5fotry3 tweets - Here's what he said on his tweet: "#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!! "
If he is seeing bjp vote share with mind bogglind % (this is before he publishes for us because he is revising it downwards when he is publishing), then we have to start thinking about 280 or higher for BJP alone.
With regards to what I said earlier about 5fotry3 tweets - Here's what he said on his tweet: "#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!! "
If he is seeing bjp vote share with mind bogglind % (this is before he publishes for us because he is revising it downwards when he is publishing), then we have to start thinking about 280 or higher for BJP alone.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
two things can happen to 543 logic: he screwed up his data or the data screwed him up.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Very saikological inference!!!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Oh, I miss Varsha Bhosle! I wonder what her take on the Rise of NaMo would beNijalingappa wrote:IB and other spooks must be burning mid night oil to answer Madam ji directly bypassing MMS chodiwala about the trap doors or hatches that are open to get into Alitalia flights to Turin
Shroud of Turin time has come as Varsha didi used to say
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
nda bjp
UP 70 70
Maharastra 40 20
MP 28 28
Andhra Pradesh 25 6
Bihar 35 25
Rajasthan 24 24
Gujarat 26 26
Karnataka 18 18
Chattisgarh 9 9
Punjab 9 4
Haryana 4 3
Tamil Nadu 6 2
Assam 4 3
Delhi 6 6
Orissa 8 8
HP 3 3
Goa 2 2
WB 6 2
Andaman & Nicobar 1 1
Arunchal Pradesh 1 1
Dui Daman 1 1
J&K 4 4
Kerala 2 2
Chandigarh 1 1
Lakshadweep 0
Manipur 0
Meghalaya 0
Pucherry 0
Tripura 0
Uttachal 4 3
337 272
For BJP to get 272 : UP should give 70 which is too difficult.... Mostly 60 seats and hence number is 327 262
Team : Can we start making per seat predictions ... Some excel with 543 columns and add probability...
I will stick with BJP getting 262 after today's show
UP 70 70
Maharastra 40 20
MP 28 28
Andhra Pradesh 25 6
Bihar 35 25
Rajasthan 24 24
Gujarat 26 26
Karnataka 18 18
Chattisgarh 9 9
Punjab 9 4
Haryana 4 3
Tamil Nadu 6 2
Assam 4 3
Delhi 6 6
Orissa 8 8
HP 3 3
Goa 2 2
WB 6 2
Andaman & Nicobar 1 1
Arunchal Pradesh 1 1
Dui Daman 1 1
J&K 4 4
Kerala 2 2
Chandigarh 1 1
Lakshadweep 0
Manipur 0
Meghalaya 0
Pucherry 0
Tripura 0
Uttachal 4 3
337 272
For BJP to get 272 : UP should give 70 which is too difficult.... Mostly 60 seats and hence number is 327 262
Team : Can we start making per seat predictions ... Some excel with 543 columns and add probability...
I will stick with BJP getting 262 after today's show
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
We need Dilbu saab comforting words right now ...
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
[quote="chandturakhia"]nda bjp
Can team validate each of my numbers in excel... I can volunter to maintain excel sheet with probability. We can also do on Google docs.
Chand
Can team validate each of my numbers in excel... I can volunter to maintain excel sheet with probability. We can also do on Google docs.
Chand
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Was that Baji Rao who was seen riding horse,wearing simple clothes, Spear not held in hand but balanced on his shoulder and eating roasted Channas ?. Modi fits the description.ramana wrote:sum, The Rediff article must reflect the views of dilli durbar as Baji Rao redux approaches to sack Delhi!!!
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
In JN Sarkar's book, There is a colorful description of Baji Rao meeting Jai Singh Singh where he compares Baji Rao's rouh manners like smoking hookah into Jai singh's face and Jai singh's smooth and polished manners....It is like Hemu's coming to Delhi.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
A 2/3rds majority is not possible unless a miracle happens in east and south.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Breaking news on Z-news, EC lifts ban imposed on Amit Shah, for election rallies and speeches. Rather good news!
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
^^Guys. Don't count the chickens before they are hatched. Let us wait to see some real data before overreacting...
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Did they do an = = vis-a-vis Azam Khan or no?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
100% agreergsrini wrote:^^Guys. Don't count the chickens before they are hatched. Let us wait to see some real data before overreacting...
Things are going OK according to some of the data.
But lets not get euphoric like we did in 2004
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
with TDP flip now getting bare minimum majority is looking difficult ::(
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Modi Interview on Times Now just now.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
Yes, I think we are over-reacting based on one website.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
from where do you get 6 seats for NDA in WB while 2 for bjp ? who are those partners who will give 4 to nda ?
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
that is the only way to get 272++north bound for orchestrations
south bound for robust structures
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
chandturakhia
4 seats in J&K ??
On what basis ?
1 Jammu seat : 66 % chance of winning
2nd seat, Udhampur : 55% chance of winning
Which are 3rd and 4th seats ?
Laddakh is a long chance.
4 seats in J&K ??
On what basis ?
1 Jammu seat : 66 % chance of winning
2nd seat, Udhampur : 55% chance of winning
Which are 3rd and 4th seats ?
Laddakh is a long chance.
Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India
No point discussing numbers until everything is done.