Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Apr 2014 23:47

Sadanand Dhume ‏@dhume 2h

"Twenty years ago the gap was less than 2 times." MT @McKinseyChina: China’s GDP per capita is now 4.5 times India's. http://linkd.in/1moOE5F

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 20 Apr 2014 23:54

Saral wrote:
Sanku wrote:The mass of muslims in villages in Bihar are extraordinarily destitute, packed in really small areas for living spaces and mostly lowest of the low. This social dynamic has kept them less dominant and also less Islamic and mostly continued in a mismash of old ways mixed with Islam. There are villages were Muslims are 60% population without a single mosque.
What this implies is that if relative prosperity does arrive, via development, over the next decade, then these groups are more vulnerable to radicalization via strengthening identity in ways that differentiates them.

Actually the reverse. They maybe more amenable to detoxification drives.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 20 Apr 2014 23:59

As much as I loathe Sagarika Ghose (and all of her ilk), nobody has the right to physically assault her.

In addition, while everything Ram Jethmalani said was true, I found that he lost his composure far too easily.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 00:02

Sicko Sashi Tharoor. Look where every one is looking and where this scum is looking.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Apr 2014 00:07

Saral wrote:I think we shouldn't be too critical of his cantankerousness. Brilliant, driven people are not necessarily ideal to have a beer with. We need to recognize that. Giving him feedback is ok though. Same reason is why I say is that RM should be given a very wide berth. Such genius emerges very rarely.

+1 . It's one of the reasons the mod team let RM back in.

I've mentioned this previously and will mention it again - please stop pressurizing 5forty3 in this manner. He did not offer a sworn affidavit to provide you details within a given time. No one is going to remember him getting upset, weeks or months from now. All they'll remember is how accurate he was, or wasn't.

The guy's pushing 60 I think, is a one man show with data collection help, running on a shoestring budget. In addition, he runs a detailed blog and twitter feed. So what if he didn't report something on time as 'promised' ? His blog entries are quite readable, and worth the extra wait.

Having to continually break his train of thought to respond to all and sundry on twitter makes things harder for him, as far as keeping his data release promises go. The guy has repeatedly stated how much more complicated trend forecasting from this election has been. Clearly, if he's delayed, he has a very good reason for it.

If you don't find an update in a timebound manner, please wait a few hours or a day and check. He's not going to shut the site and run away with the money. IMHO, he's not even close to arrogant - he's been remarkably patient answering all the hundreds of people tweeting 'I paid subscription, why can't I login ?', despite the fact that the work he's doing puts a premium on extended periods of uninterrupted thought process.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 00:09

Sanjay wrote:As much as I loathe Sagarika Ghose (and all of her ilk), nobody has the right to physically assault her.

While you are right about that, that scum and her ilk have been clapping,encouraging,assisting every traitor,US,Pakis and even plotting with them to bring down India,NDA and cheered every enemy who was against India testing nuclear weapon knowing fully well that Pakis had several tested weapons in their bag.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 21 Apr 2014 00:10

SRoy wrote:Actually the reverse. They maybe more amenable to detoxification drives.

Yes. Because they are more amenable to persuasive narratives, capable of understanding them, and modifying their self understanding. But it could go either way (towards radicalization or the other way, what you call "detoxifying"). Age is another factor. Teenage years to young adulthood (less than 30) is when people do the job of completing the self-project.

Suraj: I guess you were talking about Rahul Mehta.. My ref was to Rajiv Malhotra. The point holds in both cases, though. These outliers should be welcome as they force us to think different.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 21 Apr 2014 00:17

Saral wrote:
SRoy wrote:Actually the reverse. They maybe more amenable to detoxification drives.
Yes. Because they are more amenable to persuasive narratives, capable of understanding them, and modifying their self understanding. But it could go either way (towards radicalization or the other way, what you call "detoxifying"). Age is another factor. Teenage years to young adulthood (less than 30) is when people do the job of completing the self-project.

Suraj: I guess you were talking about Rahul Mehta.. My ref was to Rajiv Malhotra. The point holds in both cases, though. These outliers should be welcome as they force us to think different.

The fact that Bihari Muslims have no elite class that UP Muslims or even the Bengali Muslims have makes them slightly less immune to pressure from Mullahcracy. But make no mistake, there is still good amount of Muslim elite in Bihar. Of course not like UP. But yes, there is a window of opportunity in Bihar.

By detoxification, I meant reconversion.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 21 Apr 2014 00:18

vivek.rao wrote:Sicko Sashi Tharoor. Look where every one is looking and where this scum is looking.

Is this a recent photo ? Disgusting. A true perv in the tradition of Jawaharlal.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 00:20

Of all the hundreds of people I called, only one person asked me why I should vote for Modi even playfully. She is voting for Modi, but just wanted to hear my answer.

That is my aunt. My aunt is 60+yrs old & just a literate (8-9th grade). So here are my 3 points

"
1. For the first time in 4-500 years, India has more working age people than kids and old age people. If we can get the right education & jobs, they will make India more wealthy than US & Saudi combined in 20 Yrs. Then there is no need for our children to go to far countries like US & Gulf for work.

2. Even if all Indians all the money they want, there are something's we can't do individually - like roads, canals, bridges etc. For that we need a govt that uses our money correctly and for the things we need.

3. The last point is how do we want to develop, as Indians & Hindus that we are or some John Muhammeds? If that is what we wanted to do, our ancestors wouldn't have taken such losses in life, wealth, peace by fighting Islamic invaders & British colonialists. They would have converted into Islam or Christianity & become like west/gulf.

Here is this guy Modi who is saying he will do all this hard work in return for us going out and vote spending 30 mins on a sunny day.

"

After this my Aunt told me that she is going to call all her brothers/sisters and get them move their ass & vote for Modi.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 21 Apr 2014 00:23

kmkraoind wrote:Previously (in 1998), Pagalika has got real life thrashing too. Diplomat's wife beats up scribe

Irony. She spends day in and night out attacking the Hindu right for imaginary claims of physical violence comparing Pakistan to India

Sagarika Ghose ‏@sagarikaghose Apr 19

Death threats,attacks, abuse, journos both in India & Pak at severe risk from forces of far-right majoritarian religious nationalism...

Sagarika Ghose ‏@sagarikaghose Apr 19

Day not far in India when self-app guardians of "nationalism"shoot at"anti-national"journos in pursuit of their idea of "national interest"

..
and she got beaten up though by a Muslim Afghan lady while it was Hindu shopkeepers who saved her.

This lady is completely bonkers.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 00:58

Saral wrote: What this implies is that if relative prosperity does arrive, via development, over the next decade, then these groups are more vulnerable to radicalization via strengthening identity in ways that differentiates them. Development is not an unmixed blessing. It creates new expectations.. so that a govt that has actually raised aspirations by performing well can be booted out due to unrealistic hopes. Likewise it can accentuate risks of fragmentation as well. These groups will now have the capacity to be exposed to more persuasive narratives that could radicalize them (from a state where they were not radicalized because of dire poverty).

Ramana: Which are the key Islam threads on BR?

It appears thus (development breeds radicalization of Muslims) only because almost all of Muslim development came not from Indian native growth but meat exports (human & cattle) to Gulf and west. Both these societies are enemies of Bharat and actively facilitated the radicalization.

The Muslims (individuals & groups) who became wealthy thru mainly Indic opportunities are as Indic as fellow hindus. Examples are Sri Kalam & Premji.

This is where Modi's model becomes even more important for both Hindu majority & Muslims alike. His model envisages an economic & intellectual progress firmly rooted in India and not Gulf/West.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 01:06

When is Modi going to Telangana and SeemaAndhra?

Any dates?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 01:22

RamaY tweet those three points in simple sentences and can retweet and spread the message.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Apr 2014 01:47

Think of it this way....If Modi includes Abdul Kalam or Premji for his pet projects and disagreements develop, there is a high probability that AK or P will not make a mountain of the issue. If Modi includes Malhotra or Swamy, and god forbid things run into a rough weather, the probability of Malhotra and Swamy whining and bitching about this is very high. Malhotra would weave a nice narration and tell the eager audience how great he himself is to this World.

A good leader knows how and when to use different soldiers.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Apr 2014 01:48

I don't see anything wrong with Tharoor's look there, and that photo alone does not make him a sicko.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 21 Apr 2014 01:50

Sonia ill; Rahul, Priyanka cancel rallies

In the middle of a high-pitched election campaign against BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Sunday cancelled three rallies in Maharashtra citing ill-health.

Gandhi was scheduled to address election rallies at tribal-dominated Nandurbar, Dhule and Mumbai. NCP chief Sharad Pawar was expected to attend the rally in Mumbai.

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi cancelled his scheduled public meeting in Lalganj in Raebareli constituency and attended the rally in at the MMRDA Grounds in suburban Mumbai in place of his mother. Pawar could not make it to the venue due to malfunction in his helicopter.

The Congress president’s daughter Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra, who was campaigning in Rae Bareli and Amethi, has cancelled her programme for Monday.

Congress leaders were tight-lipped on the health condition of the party president.

K L Sharma, the Congress president’s representative in her constituency Raebareli, was quoted by PTI as saying that Priyanka would address 15 public meetings on Tuesday.

Sixty seven-year-old Sonia Gandhi had undergone a surgery in New York in 2011 for an undisclosed ailment. She had been out of the country on a couple of occasions for medical check ups and follow up treatment. In December last year, she was admitted to AIIMS after she took ill in the Lok Sabha when the Food Security Bill was being voted upon.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 21 Apr 2014 01:51

ramana wrote: India went under about a 1000 years of Buddhism and emerged out of it. The Indian Muslims also fell prey to another 800 years of Islam spell.

That is tweetable. Can I?

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 21 Apr 2014 01:56

Time is doing its annual most influential nonsense. AK49 leads Katy Perry

and NaMo is third. Consider a vote

http://time.com/55769/time-100-2014-poll-world/

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 02:03

Cosmo_R wrote:Time is doing its annual most influential nonsense. AK49 leads Katy Perry and NaMo is third. Consider a vote

http://time.com/55769/time-100-2014-poll-world/

I would leave it as is and make fun of Time once Khuljiwal's PAAP wins a grand ZERO MPs.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 21 Apr 2014 02:06

RamaY wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote:Time is doing its annual most influential nonsense. AK49 leads Katy Perry and NaMo is third. Consider a vote

http://time.com/55769/time-100-2014-poll-world/

I would leave it as is and make fun of Time once Khuljiwal's PAAP wins a grand ZERO MPs.

That's a thought or maybe we just vote for Katy Perry

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 02:15

The long term goal should be to make rags like Time & Economist look stupid and irrelevant.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Apr 2014 02:26

make them hire realy stupid crooks (paid setup) to write articles, then have a barrage of botting to slam them. those crooks are paid crooks. so, kind of reverse-paid-media tactic.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 21 Apr 2014 02:31

muraliravi wrote:my last post before i take my flight home:

People who are on the conservative side like me must have noticed by now whats going on in UP. The EC actually has helped BJP by starting polls from the western end of UP so that they can cash in early. Barring a few pockets and some corners, BJP's strength declines as we move from western UP towards eastern UP. Now in core western UP, people voted cutting across caste lines and going by most sources and 5forty3, they hit 8-9 of the 10 seats in phase 1. The next phase has yielded them 6/11 (it is a pretty reliable number, so much so that there is relatively consistent reports in the names of the 6 seats) with an yield rate of close to 55%. Expect this number to dip further. Since these 11 seats are also relatively polarized areas though not as much as the 1st 10 seats. In the remaining 59 seats, BJP will fight only 57 seats. There are some 6 sure shot high profile seats in these 57 and 6 sure lose seats. So the contest is in 45 seats. My prediction is that, they may hit a 35-40% strike rate and land about 15 of the 45.

So overall 9 in phase 1, 6 in phase 2, 6 sure shot going forward and 15 of the 45 will land themselves at close to 36 of the 80 seats. Granted I maybe low balling their prospects, but I prefer it that way.

That said, macro level,

Western India: RJ+GJ+MP+CG+MH should be close to 90 seats
Goa and UT's should be 4 seats
KA and other south indian states should be 12 seats
Orissa+Assam+Jharkhand+NE States: 14 seats
North India (JK, PB, HP, UTT, Haryana, Delhi): 17 seats
UP+Bihar should be 55 seats

Total 192 for bjp on its own. thats a pretty good performance in my opinion and namo can form government with reasonable comfort.

One caveat is UP, in phase 2, 3 seats at a minimum were always out of bounds for BJP and so estimating strike rate with those included may not be a good idea.

^^^^
Lok Sabha Polls 2014: How BJP planned mission UP and why it is confident of winning 50 plus seats

NEW DELHI | LUCKNOW: About halfway through the general election, BJP's key strategists in Uttar Pradesh are confident of a 50-plus seats performance in the crucial 80-seat Uttar Pradesh. Party leaders who have worked on the UP strategy for months told ET, over the course of lengthy interactions, that contrary to pundits' criticism about wrong ticket distribution and faulty caste arithmetic, the election front-runner is privately satisfied that its plans are working.

"We're looking at 53 seats," a BJP leader said. "And our strategy has four broad strands." Plus, there's a post-poll plan — and BJP leaders are calling it 'panchayat to Parliament'.

BJP leaders who spoke to ET for this news report did so on the condition that they not be identified.
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IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Apr 2014 02:34

Is AAP doing well in Punjab or illusion of AAPtards?

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 21 Apr 2014 02:45

fanne ji, IIRC niran ji has been saying for a while that eastern UP is in 90pc green .. err saffron zone due to NaMo presence in Benaras. So 18/20 seats is possible. That leaves about 40 seats in central UP. Looks like 45 to 50 is imminently possible n UP. By all accounts Bihar seems to have higher consolidation for NDA after Paswan and Ram Kripal Yadav aligned with BJP. Also NaMo himself had said during the interview to TN media that he is seeing a tsunami.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 02:47

SwamyG sure. And will retweet . Saik and others please note.

Saral, They are all in Strat Forum and have Islam in the thread title.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Apr 2014 02:58

Anyone keeping rack of poll surveys while Muraliravi is on travel to fulfill his duty to desh? I would like a few volunteers instead of depending on generous acts of kindness.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 03:02

Evict Muslims from Hindu areas: Pravin Togadia

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... IIndiaNews

NaMo's enemies are doing everything to destroy him and bring the witch back. That is in essence Hindu history.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Apr 2014 03:07

^^ thankfully he is irrelevant

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 21 Apr 2014 03:07

SwamyG wrote:I don't see anything wrong with Tharoor's look there, and that photo alone does not make him a sicko.

Clearly you do not know how to decipher a lecherous look

That photo again confirms what we already know about him. This man is a narcissist who uses women to satisfy his ego and often dupes them into being accomplices in his shady activities.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 21 Apr 2014 03:09

Sixty seven-year-old Sonia Gandhi had undergone a surgery in New York in 2011 for an undisclosed ailment. She had been out of the country on a couple of occasions for medical check ups and follow up treatment. In December last year, she was admitted to AIIMS after she took ill in the Lok Sabha when the Food Security Bill was being voted upon.

I hope and pray...! Once the termite queen is gone, the entire anthill will be laid waste.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 03:13

IndraD wrote:^^ thankfully he is irrelevant

Nope. Next 3 days, scums of PAIDMEDIA from TimesNow,NDTV,IBN to NYTimes, this will be a lead item to bash Hindus and Modi. Just watch

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 21 Apr 2014 03:13

"OT"
working for 1 month straight. punishing schedule.

But managed to get leave from 14th onwards to 22nd - my colleague agreed.
so pakodas and masal chai etc in front of tv and brf from 15 th onwards till swearing in ceremony.

praying to God for NaMo to win comfortably.
"OT"

-----------------------------------------------------
late news- all my shq family members pressed kamal. many were non political but this time - something happened in their brains.

. some have coined moi as "NaMo" (also with specs etc resembles to some extent)of our family.

due to my excessive enthu for him.
From my mom side family due to death of my uncle just before voting day no votes --

-------------------------------------------------------

gave more money to 5forty3. better to support these folks than leftists sickular behemoth with foreign backing.
This is more local desi version- with our support it will become better and more resposnive. can also have more people to help Dr Patil instead of having to do all alone in analysisng data.
Guess we all have to do with more patience.
---------------------------------------------------------
BTW also donated to infinity- RM foundation.
There is a foto of NAMo BRD and RM floating in twitter for few weeks.
Also it is said that NaMo has read or at least parts of RM popular books --esp breaking India and Being Different and Indra's net.
NaMO is a good reader -- a rare attribute compared to other politicans.
Hope he utilises the knowledge wisely for the betterment of Bharath.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 21 Apr 2014 03:15

SwamyG wrote:I don't see anything wrong with Tharoor's look there, and that photo alone does not make him a sicko.

Just pointing out how every one's eyes are on aarti except the predator whose eyes are fixed on SriDevi

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 21 Apr 2014 03:31

RamaY ji, tweeted your wonderful bichaar @luvofland.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 21 Apr 2014 03:48

ramana wrote:Anyone keeping rack of poll surveys while Muraliravi is on travel to fulfill his duty to desh? I would like a few volunteers instead of depending on generous acts of kindness.

I DM ed him. He went to India to vote on 24th. That's pretty awesome.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Apr 2014 03:56

Santosh wrote:RamaY ji, tweeted your wonderful bichaar @luvofland.

Thanx sir!

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 21 Apr 2014 04:06

IndraD wrote:Is AAP doing well in Punjab or illusion of AAPtards?

Ground reports what I am getting are suggesting AAP is doing well in Punjab. Lot of NRI punjabi are advocating and calling relatives backhome from Canada to vote for AAP.
AAP Ludhiana candidate HS Phulka (lawyer) has been fighting 84 riots case on his own and has a great sympathy from overseas Sikh.
Trying hard on my end to convert them back to dharmic fold but Akalis are proving to be liability.
Get very limited success with only 3 people so far.
My calculation is AAP is going to hurt Congis more though.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Apr 2014 05:06

Cosmo_R wrote:
RamaY wrote:I would leave it as is and make fun of Time once Khuljiwal's PAAP wins a grand ZERO MPs.
That's a thought or maybe we just vote for Katy Perry

One person is well known for "I kissed a girl and liked it". The other is well known for "I got slapped by a guy and liked it".