AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 29 Apr 2014 03:38

lmao....

vishnua · Post by **vishnua** » 29 Apr 2014 23:25

Not only velma's inter marry with Raju's they also do that with with Kammas.

Now that Reddy's (most of them were not Reddy's couple of generations agao)of Telengana intermarrying with Reddy's from coastal districts and Rayalaseema all this hungamma and Non Sense will and should go away over the time. Across the board, ppl have been marrying ( NOT Love marriges) quiet interchangably..

vishnua · Post by **vishnua** » 29 Apr 2014 23:47

Muppalla wrote:
vishnua wrote: Muppalla garu,

There is some truth it if we look at the Nizamabad parliamentary constituency. Hence that statement from Kavita. This is one of the key ones for BJP.

Congress has Madhu Yakshi goud, TRS has KAvita and BJP has Lakshminaryana. He defeate D srinivas in assembly elections which YSR wanted. Nizamabad has little pakistan just like HYD.

BJP has to win this as all the traditional TDP vote bank (read "settlers") will vote for BJP and there is lot of under current for BJP within people who has supported TRS . MYgoud last 2 MP elections just based on the T-sentiment. If the T-votes gets split between Congress and Kavita that will be great boost for BJP which will happen. The question is to what extent.

Another key one is Bodhan Assembly election. TDP has Prakash Reddy who was PA to Balayogi. Congress has sitting minister Sudharshan Reddy who is also 3 time MLA. TRS has Shakeel ( had TRS ticket last time and lost ).

If the "native T folks " vote for Prakash reddy then he is sure shot. They will never vote for Shakeel. They might vote for Sudharshan reddy but we have to see. All the muslims will vote for TRS who were traditionally Cong votes expect during NTR time.
There is no strategy for TRS. They took lot of risks. KCR can lose his assembly seat Gajwel. He should have taken Siddipet which is more safer seat. Every article that came today has put that he may lose this seat to TDP guy.

Prediction.

Congress will take Bodhan assembly seat and Kavita will win MP seat.

Reason

Bodhan Assembly

All the BJP folks and in are voting for Sudharshan Reddy as he is known devil + Key is they are afraid that if they vote for Prakash Reddy the votes will split and Shakeel might win. Only the "settlers" might vote for Prakash Reddy.

I would rather have Sudahrshan reddy than the Shakeel. This Shakeel guy is very very shady character.

Nizambad.

BJP is only strong in Nizamabad town (urban and may be little bit of rural) and around other areas which fall under this parliamentary constituency, T- sentiment is very strong. They are Armur,Balkonda,Koratla,Jagtial,Bodhan .

BJP folks are saying please vore BJP in MP elections and vote whoever you want for Assembly.

TDP folks are saying please vote for TDP candidate for Assembly and vote whoever you want for MP.

BJP does have potential in these areas.

TRS will be non- player by next election.

Key is Madhu Yakshi Goud has to loose. I feel bad for Lakshiminarayana.

TRS went with money. All the candidates that were put up can dish out lot of money.TRS mistake in Bodhan is Shakeel . I think it has to do with the money as it was the same case last time. But other constituencies, it is not the case. I am taking about Assembly ones.

As per KCR, we will see. I think it all depends on how many INC folks will split and vote for Pratap Reddy . If INC in 2014 = PrajaRajyam Party in 2009 then TDP has very good shot.

Money + little of T-sentiment + not compelte coordination at the ground level between BJP+TDP will cause TRS to gain.

We will see.

Added Later.

Folks,

This time it will be TRS which will win majority in T Assembly elections as this is seen let us give TRS a chance at least once. Hence, apart from here and there, majoirty of the T- Candidates will win in Assembly elections. Obviously we cannot predict whether they will able form the govt with absolute majority.

So if I were BJP or especially TDP i would sit tight and get ready for 2019 in T.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2014 00:05

Will TRS be like AAP in Delhi Assy elections?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Apr 2014 02:06

Let us give TRS a chance is the sentiment across T even if they don't like KCR. Actually I want it that way in a situation where BJP/TDP are not winning as opposed to getting INC. At the least the public will know what he can delver beyond the histrionics.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Apr 2014 02:16

Any predictions about Karimnagar? Is that foul mouthed Kangressi, Ponnam Prabhakar winning again? Or does Chennamaneni Vidyasagar Rao stand a chance?

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 30 Apr 2014 02:21

^ Yep, that is the sentiment across Telangana at least for assembly elections. Even if they don't like KCR, they are holding theirs nose and voting for TRS. MP seats are little hard to predict. Where ever there are strong congress candidates, they might still win their seats.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 03:33

Andhrajyothy channel is showing liquor bottles hidden in spinning mills, canals, under ground and what not.

In one constituency they discovered that Rs25Cr has been withdrawn by various YSRCP leaders.

This is all shown on TV.

I am sure other channels must be showing similar info about other parties.

What can EC do other than banning Baba Ramdev?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2014 03:43

Very simple EC formula: If it helps the Congress and its allies then let it go. Otherwise raise a stink!!!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Apr 2014 06:01

nageshks wrote:Any predictions about Karimnagar? Is that foul mouthed Kangressi, Ponnam Prabhakar winning again? Or does Chennamaneni Vidyasagar Rao stand a chance?

Karimnagar this time will be TRS.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Apr 2014 16:05

In southern Telangana, twin cities and RR districts TDP+BJP did very impressively. In Nizamabad there is a lot of cross voting. Parl may goes to BJP but assembly to INC. Very early noise though.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 18:59

Jai Telangana!

Looks like they are voting for Modi and either TRS/Congis in state.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 30 Apr 2014 19:04

7 Votes to BJP and BJP allies in Malkajgiri Secunderabad cast from my folks

where is Kaushal Vepa Garu?

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 30 Apr 2014 19:08

At the current (events ) exposure of KCR

it should be Jai Telengana Andhra

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Apr 2014 19:57

RamaY wrote:Jai Telangana!

Looks like they are voting for Modi and either TRS/Congis in state.

How many places in TN is BJP contesting for MP seats?

Can people be smart enough to vote for TDP/BJP for center and whatever their choice for assembly?

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 30 Apr 2014 21:06

Do we know what the % of registered voters polled in Telangana? I heard it was around 78%. I don't know how to interpret this in T, but if similar % repeats in SA, then TDP-BJP is going to come to power. Although it means a 100% participation from the lower 30% in the economic hierarchy, it would also mean huge turnout from the 50% middle tier where the majority of the TDP-BJP support is.

Higher percentage also means historic wipe out of congress in Andhra Pradesh (SA ).

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 30 Apr 2014 21:42

Dasari wrote:Do we know what the % of registered voters polled in Telangana? I heard it was around 78%. I don't know how to interpret this in T, but if similar % repeats in SA, then TDP-BJP is going to come to power. Although it means a 100% participation from the lower 30% in the economic hierarchy, it would also mean huge turnout from the 50% middle tier where the majority of the TDP-BJP support is.

Higher percentage also means historic wipe out of congress in Andhra Pradesh (SA ).

Thanks for the insight, Dasari-ji. Very valuable coming from you. From what I have seen (correct me if I am wrong), the present YSRCP vote is basically most of Congress vote bank + some of the old Praja Rajyam vote. Can the Congress be expected to take ~10% of the vote? Or has it fallen even below that in SA?

What worries me, though, is what I saw in southern Rayalseema and Nellore regions, both of which are overwhelmingly for YSRCP. Jagan is spending money like water, but as you said, if better off sections of the society vote overwhelmingly, then maybe TDP has a chance there. Still, I fear that region maybe gone for the present election. What is it like in the Delta and the Circars regions?

On that related note, is Botsa contesting again, and can he win again in Vizianagaram?

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Apr 2014 22:20

nageshks wrote:
Dasari wrote:Do we know what the % of registered voters polled in Telangana? I heard it was around 78%. I don't know how to interpret this in T, but if similar % repeats in SA, then TDP-BJP is going to come to power. Although it means a 100% participation from the lower 30% in the economic hierarchy, it would also mean huge turnout from the 50% middle tier where the majority of the TDP-BJP support is.

Higher percentage also means historic wipe out of congress in Andhra Pradesh (SA ).
Thanks for the insight, Dasari-ji. Very valuable coming from you. From what I have seen (correct me if I am wrong), the present YSRCP vote is basically most of Congress vote bank + some of the old Praja Rajyam vote. Can the Congress be expected to take ~10% of the vote? Or has it fallen even below that in SA?

What worries me, though, is what I saw in southern Rayalseema and Nellore regions, both of which are overwhelmingly for YSRCP. Jagan is spending money like water, but as you said, if better off sections of the society vote overwhelmingly, then maybe TDP has a chance there. Still, I fear that region maybe gone for the present election. What is it like in the Delta and the Circars regions?

On that related note, is Botsa contesting again, and can he win again in Vizianagaram?

High % is sticky wicket this time. High turn out in Telangana means voting for TRS, TDP, and BJP for the reason Congress cadre and voters are not that much enthusiastic compared to the other party cadre and voters. Constituency-level voting will make more sense because Harish Rao constituency like ones where voting is abnormal can bias the numbers.

In Seemandhra, it is puzzling. If YSRCP votebank has 90% voting and TDP votebank has 70% and neutrals' voting is 60%, we have an issue. Exit-pools (if collected correctly) can capture this bias for the seat projections.

On Rayalseema and Nellore, voters are generally split in half. You can't say overwhelming are for YSRCP ignoring Kadapa segments which adds bias in overall projections. YSRCP has advantage only when all previous voters move en masse to YSRC alone. Currenly YSRC may be leading in Kadapa, Nandyala (Bhooma Sobha Nagi Reddy death may cause clear shift), Nellore (Adala Prabhakar Reddy can give tough fight). Rajampet, Kurnool, Ongole are close fights. Tirupati, Chittoor, Hindupur, Ananthpur can be in TDP/BJP kitty.

Added later: As per Gulte.com the voting %s are: Hyderabad/RR least %s mean Urban voters really suck and rural mindset wins so it is advantageous to TRS and partially to TDP.

Warangal- 73%
Nalgonda- 74%
Khammam- 75%
Hyderabad- 53%
Rangareddy- 57%
Karimnagar- 67%
Adilabad-70%
Medak-74%
Mahabubnagar- 69%
Nizamabad- 67%

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 30 Apr 2014 22:35

Secunderabad const - On predicted lines all my extended family and their pet dogs voted lotus for the LS..count 30 for NaMo. Votes split for assembly polls..i dont care whom they voted. I believe a lot of cross voting all over the city. Bandaru must trump this.

vishnua · Post by **vishnua** » 30 Apr 2014 23:54

ramana wrote:Will TRS be like AAP in Delhi Assy elections?

probabaly not. It could be that TRS will get the majorty and will seek alliance from Cong or MIM.

This should work well for BJP or TDP if they do it right. Ideally, TRS should form the govt with Cong help and after 5 years they will be toast or may be within 2 to 3 years.

Then it should be BJP vs TDP for Assembly in T and TRS can play the spoiler. Wipe out INC just like in TN. All the traditional leaders (Read Reddy's) from INC can be absorbed into BJP or TRS . They are some current INC leaders which are ideal for BJP becuase end of the day their idealogy is aligned with BJP.

BJP goal should be to replace INC and have the regional parties play the spoiler. It is lot easier to do that in T than in Seemandhra.

Since HYd is only 53% turn out, I hope , Bandaru will make it through. Secundrabad should be forgone conclusion for BJP just like HYD is foregone conclusion for MIM.

On Nizambad MP seat looks like BJP has a shot but it is tough. One thing is sure , MYgoud is done and hope never comes back. Better come back to Masaland and start working legal drafts.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 00:58

SandeepA wrote:Secunderabad const - On predicted lines all my extended family and their pet dogs voted lotus for the LS..count 30 for NaMo. Votes split for assembly polls..i dont care whom they voted. I believe a lot of cross voting all over the city. Bandaru must trump this.

Bhagyanagaramulo manchi dinamulu vastunnadi

(sorry my Telugu is very rusty - studied only for two years saar).

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 May 2014 01:19

I do hope TRS can get a majority on its own. If it has to form a coalition, it is more probable that they would take the help of MIM than allying with Congress.

A TRS-MIM govt in Telangana would be disastrous for the cultural foundation of Telangana. Also Congress should not be allowed to generate any money from Hyderabad.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 01:50

But it would give new meaing to gungadin-jumani relationship.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 May 2014 04:51

I hope TRS forms govt with both INC and MIM. all 3 deserve each other. they will go down together as well.

if TRS has to form govt, it would be best if the situation is such that only the combination of the 3 can form govt.

if INC stays out then they have opportunity to play Taqiya. same with MIM.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 01 May 2014 04:54

TRS will become another Mullah yam if he wins

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 01 May 2014 04:59

would you want them to be in opposition and act holier than thou?

let them come to power in State. let them unmask their old Ashraf-leaning tendencies.

gpati · Post by **gpati** » 01 May 2014 05:48

CBN's body language has changed. He is very happy since yesterday.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 01 May 2014 07:39

manchi rojulu is better than dinalu

Dinalu also means Abdikam or Shraddha days

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 01 May 2014 07:45

Rony wrote:On a lighter note

Translation please

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 01 May 2014 07:52

ramana wrote:Will TRS be like AAP in Delhi Assy elections?

Yep, Ramana gaaru, that seems most likely. TRS-kong-MIM may come together to form a short-lived govt like Dilli. After that, TDP and BJP may become the principle parties in tussle.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 01 May 2014 07:54

The lady assumed mother of Jagan is saying release Release need release of my Son (bidda can be progney implying (fe) {or}male

The Male Jagan is saying sell Sell the whole country Sell

In the bottom the sister of Jagan (sharmila) is screaming come brother come brother, the people are fed up/ sick of my voice (screams)

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 01 May 2014 07:56

I am told in Telengana people have voted for TDP/CBN (those who work in IT and white collar) dont know about rustic folks though. No wonder CBN body language is like team India having taken first wicket

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 01 May 2014 07:58

devesh wrote:would you want them to be in opposition and act holier than thou?

let them come to power in State. let them unmask their old Ashraf-leaning tendencies.

That is a good point. I too wanted KCR to form govt. I knew KCR would use andhra punch lines whenever he gets into trouble. But this strategy has certain shelf life. I thought he would be having an easy sail in the first few years before he reaches out to his time tested andhra hatred weapon. I'm glad to see he is depleting this weapon sooner. It will have two impacts: 1) He will be made accountable sooner and forced to do something good for T. 2) It sets an object lesson for other regions not to fall for this kind of dividing tactics in future.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 01 May 2014 08:00

Thanks

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 01 May 2014 08:02

we need to see if the resources from center would be half of what AP would get (as United State sigh! )
Half to Telengana and other half to Seema Andhra?

Or is going to be double that of AP so that T & SA full quota?

This will define how much KCR can swallow and still spit on SA for all troubles

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 01 May 2014 08:34

nageshks wrote:From what I have seen (correct me if I am wrong), the present YSRCP vote is basically most of Congress vote bank + some of the old Praja Rajyam vote. Can the Congress be expected to take ~10% of the vote? Or has it fallen even below that in SA?

Nageshji, One thing that happened is that people under lower economic strata are voting en-mass to YSRCP. Very hard to explain the reason. It got to be more than the nostalgia of free schemes. Perhaps huge money is flowing, if not to individual voters, but to the cadre. Believe it or not, in rural AP, as it was 50 years ago, the votes are still being cast based on cadre persuasion. The only advancement is that there are rival cadres even in small villages, unlike yesteryears where the entire village used to vote for one party. I may be extrapolating from couple of villages in my native place in Vizag dist, but I tend to think that is norm every where.

In the recent ZP elections, it is common to experience a house maid, a local barber in the corner, or a lady worker in a clothe store, taking leave of absence for a day to go to their native village to cast the vote. Why so much interest even at the expense of generating ire from their employers? The common story is that their entire family sold their votes for as high as Rs 1000 per vote. Also the cadre who is facilitating the transaction takes possession of ration cards , id cards etc, and each family member has to come to take their card back after casting their vote. In all these cases, my sampling shows that they all voted for YSRCP. I'm sure of some of these guys voted for TDP in previous elections. Hence, my reasoning that TDP lost some vote bank in the lower economic strata although gained in middle class vote.

However, what is not known is whether these voters are taking money from one party and voting for others. Earlier this bribing used to buy loyalty for them. Now as more and more of these people see this as their fundamental right to be bribed, the loyalty factor is fading away ( see this report to illustrate this Tribals in Visakha agency area complain of discrimination by netas doling out cash to buy votes

On that related note, is Botsa contesting again, and can he win again in Vizianagaram?

My calculation is that he going to lose badly. Besides money he used to intimidate villages with dire consequences if they don't vote for him. But as people see change of guard, they may not fall for his scary tactics. Also the police beating of students etc in the college run by his family turned very bad for him.

vishnua · Post by **vishnua** » 01 May 2014 14:48

Voting for the party candidate that dolled out money is true 20 years ago. hence ppl would take leave from work for a day and could make more than a day's salary + booze + biryani etc.

But just like general morality and ethics have been going down, now a days they take money but do significant cross voting. That inlcudes individual level, family level, assosiation level, community level and cadre level.

so the reason why they migh be voting for YSCR is that money + religion+ good will left due to YSR. But i would be not be surprised if some of them voted for TDP.

NTR swept all these votes. God do we need another NTR or what irrespective of his dumb economic policies but kept the culture and made sure Cong leaders were in line. The whole EJ thing took off after he lost /or died in 96. Hence Naidu is not Kosher.

In T itvity votes mean nothing. It is mostly, farmers (all types), small business owners, govt employess who also have many small business aside, muslims where there is no muslim candidate, communities i..e Chakali assosiation, Kummari assosciation etc, and non Itvity private employess that will matter.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 May 2014 15:44

In T all it matters is how many were snatched by BJP+TDP for parliament. Otherwise, I wish TRS forms the government. TRS+INC+MIM should form the government. Let BJP stand out. Future is ripe for BJP in Telangana if they get their eggs in order.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 01 May 2014 15:49

For TDP in Telangana's future, it all depends how they do on the other side. The pressure will be on T-government if AP develops faster (which it will). TDP can showcase that in T for 2019. By that time the T-sentiment will die.

munna · Post by **munna** » 01 May 2014 15:50

Muppalla wrote:In T all it matters is how many were snatched by BJP+TDP for parliament. Otherwise, I wish TRS forms the government. TRS+INC+MIM should form the government. Let BJP stand out. Future is ripe for BJP in Telangana if they get their eggs in order.

Sir, what is a conservative estimate for BJP (NDA) in SA+TG and the upper bound also?