Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Mort Walker]

Ramanaji,

I disagree. In 2009 BJP got 116, this time they would have picked up about 40 more seats plus some more regional parties supporting the NDA. Maybe Mamta and Jaya.

[Kati]

Two goof-ups in Serampore - 1) painting, 2) illegal Bdeshis. The first money went to charity - sensitive issue. Also saying expel Bdeshis in WB is counter-productive as there are millions of Hindu illegals. Should have attacked on slow progress by TMC on development and industry.

don't agree on the BD thing. it is pretty obvious that BD hindus are not the target. in all the places bjp is aiming for there's a strong vhp rss presence who would explain things at local level if required.

Second it. Everyone in WB knows the meaning of "illegal BDeshi" encroachers. Not the hindus who are fleeing persecution; it is meant for those coming to loot the economic benefits and become votebank for sikular parties.

[Suraj]

Muppalla, yes I remember your 2009 effort. It may have been far off the mark, but you made an effort to collect and project using the available data, as opposed to just emotion driven talk, which I appreciate

Some thoughts in response.
* ECI data shows that for AP assembly, 2004 turnout was 70% and 2009 turnout was 72.2% . I argue that this does not show any sort of massive increase or wave for change, and well within poll to poll turnout variance; the past several AP VS elections have turnouts ranging from 68-73%, so 2009 was not outside historical range at all.
* UP 2012 was definitely a wave in favor of change, and SP was the primary contender ahead of polls, not BJP. The only surprise was the margin of victory. The BJP, until Modi and Shah's efforts to generate a unified vote, have been moribund in UP for some time.
* GE2014 turnout has so far been within 1-2% of the historical highest turnout reported in 1984 . Several states report the highest ever turnout since historical past elections, e.g. 1967 for TN, 1977 or 1984 elsewhere, if not, the highest ever.
* Overall turnout of 64% so far is 10% higher than the 2004 and 2009 turnout percentages, both of which were ~58% .
* The 1999 elections had 60% turnout, which resulted in a major change in the form of the first stable BJP govt. 1998 had 62%, which yielded BJP's highest ever vote count.
* It is hard to quantify how the 18-35 segment will vote. They constitute 48% of the electorate, and possibly >50% of those actually voting. Many are first time voters because of the level of interest generated by these elections, which makes it hard to predict.
* The 18-35 demographic are less influenced by traditional votnig dynamics and more by the need to meet their immediate need to climb the socio-economic ladder. That 'should' benefit BJP, but they're not that predictable.

[nachiket]

Ramanaji,

I disagree. In 2009 BJP got 116, this time they would have picked up about 40 more seats plus some more regional parties supporting the NDA. Maybe Mamta and Jaya.

You mean without NaMo? The campaign would have been lead by Lol Purush with same disastrous results as before. I don't know why people say if BJP gets only 180 there is no Modi wave. The error is in assuming they would have got anywhere close to that without someone like him (and Amit Shah) leading the charge.

The Congress would have lost votes this time in any case, but the BJP needed an inspiring leader and a good campaign to make sure they grabbed the bulk of those votes. Without NaMo, most of those votes would have gone to the regional parties.

[Shanmukh]

If NDA doesn't come this time, then BJP is permanently finished. The forces of darkness have already won.

Sir, even with these conservative numbers, I see no reason as to why an NDA govt will not be formed. It may involve some compromise like killing some state units to please regional leaders who may offer support in exchange for that.

MuraliRavi-ji,
If your numbers come true, then the BJP should sit in the opposition, and let the Congress+3rd+4th+ \ldots + Nth fronts come to power and drive India further into the ground. If BJP still comes up to <200, it means that India has not regressed enough. Then, in the next poll (if there is an India left to have another poll after another Congress term), BJP should try to get above 220 on its own.

[panduranghari]

I always felt BR is an unnecessary baggage in NaMo's team. It is people like these who have nothing to contribute except huge potential for gaffe who will do more damage to NaMo's campaign as well as his rule in the near future.

That's ridiculous. He brought the Hindu religious leaders on one platform to endorse Modi. Don't belittle the contribution of the hermits and the sages. They have always done their duty from time immemorial. Don't ask for any rights, unless you have performed your own duty of voting.

All this deflection is congtards clutching at any straws they can get hold of. Best bet is to let everyone do what they are doing. Besides BRD has more credibility than the average volunteer for parties like BSP.

All these vote bankers are loosing everything they built for the last 20 years. They are hound to do all that they can. Let's not attribute malice to BRD.

Anyway Modi will loose onlee.

Abki baar Modi sarkaar.

[Karan M]

Nageshks ji, thanks for your kind thoughts about India being driven into the ground , but people who voted BJP this time, including aged folks who could barely walk but made it to the voting booth, don't have the luxury of sitting abroad in a more developed clime. We need the BJP in power, one way or the another and I hope NaMo makes the effort.

[SwamyG]

Please also note that, I am not inclined to place heavy trust on 5forty3 for Orissa and TN. He/his team has not done the survey there. They are using 3rd party sources in these states and it will be better to not expect any returns for the BJP there. Again, in orissa csds march tracker did give BJP 3-7 seats, so it may very well be the case, but I prefer to be conservative. Even UP they may go much higher. who knows, but I can say with reasonable confidence that BJP will get AT LEAST 188

BJP can get at least 2 on their own in TN.

[Shanmukh]

Nageshks ji, thanks for your kind thoughts about India being driven into the ground , but people who voted BJP this time, including aged folks who could barely walk but made it to the voting booth, don't have the luxury of sitting abroad in a more developed clime. We need the BJP in power, one way or the another and I hope NaMo makes the effort.

I am sorry if I appear harsh, but forming a government now without >200 seats is the surest recipe for disaster. It will mean that BJP may, at best, survive one term, and then we will be back to three terms of Congoon government. Better to suffer for five more years now, than to suffer for fifteen years starting from 2019. BJP is just starting to get out ot its sluggish phase, and is in the growth phase once more, thanks to NaMo. Despite Sanku-ji's pontifications, BJP is still suffering for the Vajpayee government formation. If BJP kills its own growth once more to appease allies, its credibility outside its core areas will be gone. If BJP does not form government in 2014 with <200 seats, by 2019, BJP will have become a reasonable force capable of winning seats in WB, TN and Odisha at least, on its own. If BJP forms the government now, all BJP growth will be killed and we will be back to the same problem, in worse form, in 2019. BJP is growing now, and should make full use of that phase.

[ramana]

I think Mamta didi is up to her neck in teh chit fund scam without any cutouts. So direct involvement hence her hyper attacks on Namo.
No Ahmed Patel to provide plausible deniability.

[Sanjay]

ramana, how do you see things shaping up ?

[Muppalla]

MuraliRavi-ji,
If your numbers come true, then the BJP should sit in the opposition, and let the Congress+3rd+4th+ \ldots + Nth fronts come to power and drive India further into the ground. If BJP still comes up to <200, it means that India has not regressed enough. Then, in the next poll (if there is an India left to have another poll after another Congress term), BJP should try to get above 220 on its own.

No sir. I respectfully disagree. Modi should form the government by hook or crook. The problem is the ruling disposition is very powerful and they will decimate you from growth. They can put moles all over your teams and even kill you. There is no institution that is worth called independent in India.

You should take over the government. Do political compromises. Allow the alliance partners to do bad things and take evidence to blackmail them. Meanwhile put Amit Shah types in Home and clean up the system. If he is lucky and INC really goes down to 110 then he will have more power to put one regional satrap over other. There are lessons learnt from ABV times and you can do better than that time line.

But sitting in opposition is not an option. You can divide the parties while ruling. If you sit out you are the one that will be target.

[Suraj]

nageshks, you're right. A lot of people are getting caught up in the euphoria and forget that the BJP remains organizationally weak and lacks countrywide depth. They essentially wasted the period between 2004-2012. That period should have been spent raising cadre strength in the south and west at the grassroots level. But in reality there was nothing. Instead, GE 2014 is basically a one man story, and not that of the party at large. The NaMo mania will die down, regardless of whether he is elevated to PMship with a strong mandate, within a coalition, or even if he loses out to a Cong+3rd+4th front pastiche .

What then ? When the Tsunamo waves recede, we're back to the same BJP with weak state cadre outside of the heartland. Don't kid yourselves. Modi and Shah aren't going to be able to sustain the same zealous efforts for another 5 years. They've already been striving towards just the mere goal of elevation to PMship through a carefully orchestrated campaign. Regardless of whether or not it succeeds, they cannot carry out base building for the long term by themselves. LKA, SS, AJ, NG, RNS et all have collectively done squat in this regard in the last 10 years, and the very fact that the BJP is such a challenger owes itself to two people and the enthusiasm of RSS and BJP cadre, not the established BJP leadership.

[Muppalla]

Some thoughts in response.
* ECI data shows that for AP assembly, 2004 turnout was 70% and 2009 turnout was 72.2% . I argue that this does not show any sort of massive increase or wave for change, and well within poll to poll turnout variance; the past several AP VS elections have turnouts ranging from 68-73%, so 2009 was not outside historical range at all.

If you go to 1083 until 2004, the gap between TDP and INC is about 2 to 4%. That small variation put one on the top in a big way. In 2009, TDP was able to stitch a nice coalition. PRP got about 2% and that is the extra. However, Congress romped home and he does have anti-incumbency otherwise he would not have reduced seats. Small percentages are big.

* UP 2012 was definitely a wave in favor of change, and SP was the primary contender ahead of polls, not BJP. The only surprise was the margin of victory. The BJP, until Modi and Shah's efforts to generate a unified vote, have been moribund in UP for some time.

This is always a multi-cornered contest with votebanks. A section of OBC voters swing the pendulum. Conventional wisdom is Yadavs are always solidly with SP, dalits with BSP. Muslims tend to vote to see the ground and vote to the winner. The forward castes swing to one way or other. The total percentages are mostly dependent on OBCs that are not very much sync with Yadavs. BJP's voter base for win or lose always depends on how much of this voters come to booths. Hence it was expected that though SP will win the polls, BJP will do a three digit mark. By the way 5forty3 (albotrossinflight) was very confident in his projection of 100 seats to BJP. Though I like his analysis, I still have this data point in my mind when I read his articles.

* GE2014 turnout has so far been within 1-2% of the historical highest turnout reported in 1984 . Several states report the highest ever turnout since historical past elections, e.g. 1967 for TN, 1977 or 1984 elsewhere, if not, the highest ever.
* Overall turnout of 64% so far is 10% higher than the 2004 and 2009 turnout percentages, both of which were ~58% .
* The 1999 elections had 60% turnout, which resulted in a major change in the form of the first stable BJP govt. 1998 had 62%, which yielded BJP's highest ever vote count.
* It is hard to quantify how the 18-35 segment will vote. They constitute 48% of the electorate, and possibly >50% of those actually voting. Many are first time voters because of the level of interest generated by these elections, which makes it hard to predict.
* The 18-35 demographic are less influenced by traditional votnig dynamics and more by the need to meet their immediate need to climb the socio-economic ladder. That 'should' benefit BJP, but they're not that predictable.

This is where the hopes really fly in favor of Modi wave. In 1989, for the first time the government reduced the voting age to 16 or 18. We are all then were suddenly eligible voters and everywhere that generation voted for removing Congress. In addition it was RJB movement and BJP being a 2 seater did not gauge the mood of the nation and in the garb of anti-congressism they gave more seats to partners. First time voters generally get enthused to a wave and there is a clear Modi factor this time. That is where all the projections of 200+ is coming from.

In 1989, Pranoy Roy of NDTV projected 190 seats from INC and he was on dot. He failed at several state level projections but his overall number was right.

[ramana]

Sanjay,
I think Modi will form the new govt.
We are seeing the ending of the Congress system. Pvadra's outburst is an omen.
Most likely the family will be unotuched but the entire courtiers will all be accounted.
It will start with the babus as no one will cry and everyone knos they facilitate the politicians loot.
Businessmen with shady contacts will have to retire and hand over to their own kin.
DI will come back and implode TSP.

[devesh]

what is DI?

[Sanjay]

From your typing to reality on 16 May. 188 seats would be an excellent performance.

[Suraj]

Muppalla, I can't really speak for on the ground alliance dynamics. As my original post states, I really only stated that GE2014 has a substantially greater turnout than the last several GEs. The only one that comes close is 1998/1999, when the nation twice gave BJP a weak mandate, but nevertheless, a mandate in favor of someone other than Congress or a 3rd front pastiche, for the first time.

In terms of turnout, I just emphasized that there was no turnout wave in 2009 in AP because turnout was within historical trends. Again, actual alliance dynamics are a separate matter. I agree there was one in UP 2012, and the results were a definite mandate for one party. On paper, the suggestion that BJP would win in UP 2012 sounds really bizarre. BJP succeeds in UP whenever there's a strong wave undercurrent to support them. They need that because otherwise the fractured demographics result in a vote for SaPa or BaSaPa .

Even if there's a turnout wave in UP, in the absence of any issue that draws unified Hindu voting, the BJP doesn't do well, regardless of whether it is VS or LS elections. In 2012, the BJP had no RJB movement, no Vajpayee, no Kalyan Singh, nothing. They had Lalji Tandon and co, I think. Most of us outside northie BJP watchers have no idea who he is...

[Karan M]

Nageshks ji, thanks for your kind thoughts about India being driven into the ground , but people who voted BJP this time, including aged folks who could barely walk but made it to the voting booth, don't have the luxury of sitting abroad in a more developed clime. We need the BJP in power, one way or the another and I hope NaMo makes the effort.

I am sorry if I appear harsh, but forming a government now without >200 seats is the surest recipe for disaster. It will mean that BJP may, at best, survive one term, and then we will be back to three terms of Congoon government. Better to suffer for five more years now, than to suffer for fifteen years starting from 2019. BJP is just starting to get out ot its sluggish phase, and is in the growth phase once more, thanks to NaMo. Despite Sanku-ji's pontifications, BJP is still suffering for the Vajpayee government formation. If BJP kills its own growth once more to appease allies, its credibility outside its core areas will be gone. If BJP does not form government in 2014 with <200 seats, by 2019, BJP will have become a reasonable force capable of winning seats in WB, TN and Odisha at least, on its own. If BJP forms the government now, all BJP growth will be killed and we will be back to the same problem, in worse form, in 2019. BJP is growing now, and should make full use of that phase.

Thats all fine, but those who voted for the BJP and in face of severe challenges deserve more than being told, "Accha organization is growing, chalo next time". 2009 took a lot out of many of us, and if 2014 turns out to be more the same, and with BJP folks also acting coy, then they will just tire out a whole bunch of folks. Besides which stating that India can go to the dawgs, and BJP should just wait and watch is not what many expect of NaMo/BJP.

[Shanmukh]

nageshks, you're right. A lot of people are getting caught up in the euphoria and forget that the BJP remains organizationally weak and lacks countrywide depth. They essentially wasted the period between 2004-2012. That period should have been spent raising cadre strength in the south and west at the grassroots level. But in reality there was nothing. Instead, GE 2014 is basically a one man story, and not that of the party at large. The NaMo mania will die down, regardless of whether he is elevated to PMship with a strong mandate, within a coalition, or even if he loses out to a Cong+3rd+4th front pastiche .

There are two distinct points here, Suraj.
1) Why was the 2004-2012 period wasted?
BJP, upto the mid nineties, had grown on the Hindutva platform. People connected to the Hindutva idea of the BJP. The other aspects of BJP (its relative lack of corruption, its economic ideas, its disinvestment plans, etc) were all incidental to this central theme. BJP was the Hindu party. In 1997, when the BJP decided to go with alliances, curtailing its own growth, BJP began to bleed too many people to other parties. This was particularly true in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, where BJP was traditionally weak, but growing strongly in the late nineties. In both states, the BJP decision to go for alliances essentially virtually decimated the state units, since they were subservient to the allies and had nothing to offer to their own members. Even Bihar, and Karnataka, should have gone that way, but the extreme casteism of Bihar is ironically what has saved the BJP organisation in the state. BJP's mostly upper caste base remained intact. IIRC, even NiKu tested whether to break the BJP alliance in one local bodies poll, but the emphatic defeat due to the loss of the BJP's upper caste base convinced him that it was suicidal to break it without proper recompense. In Karnataka, the BJP was saved by Yediyurappa's large scale sabotage of the JD(U). BJP barely retained its old strength (essentially, what he had gained between 91 and 98, he lost by sabotaging the JD(U) and being sabotaged in return, but he saved the BJP because the damage done to the JD(U) was greater, and JD(U) was utterly leaderless in Karnataka with the deaths of J H Patel and Ramakrishna Hegde). By 2004, the BJP had already given away all that it had acquired in a period of growth (from 1991 to 1997), and the BJP was of no further use for the allies, and was a burden indeed. So, all of them, sooner or later, kicked it to the curb. Further, in its desire to appease its allies, the BJP poisoned its own USP, Hindutva. The destruction of the BJP in UP can be directly attributed to Vajpayee's decision to destroy the Hindutva brand. ABV bought one term, burning all BJP growth and credbility since 91, but he may also have ensured that BJP's credibility was gone on the Hindutva issue. The period between 2004 and 2012 was wasted because the BJP had no new ideas to offer. Hindutva was dead, there was no essential difference between the economic, domestic, and foreign policies of Narasimha Rao Congress and the BJP (this was the frame of reference of comparison between the Congress and the BJP). BJP, thanks to ABV government, had turned into a pale imitation of the Congress. No wonder people decided that they might have the original product the Congress (people still remembered Narasimha Rao Congress in 2004, since that was the last Congress government in power), rather than its imitation, the BJP.

2) Why am I more certain that BJP can grow now, more speedily than in the last fifteen years?
The new frame of reference is the UPA 2 government in particular. The destruction of the economy is now associated with the Congress, and the BJP is the `development party', the party that can revamp the economy and bring back the high growth of the ABV days. Under NaMo, that idea has been accentuated, but people have seen good development under capable BJP CMs like Parrikar, Chauhan and Raman Singh also. In short, the BJP has acquired a new USP, and that is `developmental politics'. The policy paralysis of the Congress is not associated with the BJP. People who want economic growth will look to the BJP. This is NaMo's greatest contribution - giving the BJP a new USP in place of the poisoned and destroyed Hindutva. There is also a secondary contribution. NaMo has pushed BJP vote into the double digits in many states like TN and WB certainly (maybe also Telangana), and in Odisha, he may have brought BJP to be principal opposition in the state.

What then ? When the Tsunamo waves recede, we're back to the same BJP with weak state cadre outside of the heartland. Don't kid yourselves. Modi and Shah aren't going to be able to sustain the same zealous efforts for another 5 years. They've already been striving towards just the mere goal of elevation to PMship through a carefully orchestrated campaign. Regardless of whether or not it succeeds, they cannot carry out base building for the long term by themselves. LKA, SS, AJ, NG, RNS et all have collectively done squat in this regard in the last 10 years, and the very fact that the BJP is such a challenger owes itself to two people and the enthusiasm of RSS and BJP cadre, not the established BJP leadership.

If BJP does not form the government now, its `developmental politics' USP remains untarnished. If BJP forms a khichdi government, I can wager you that no hard decisions to kickstart the economy can be taken. I will take the liberty of disagreeing with Muppalla-ji. BJP voter is not the kind that will come to the booth unless he sees something to vote for (beyond caste, liquor and election money). If BJP ends up destroying its `developmental politics' USP with a khichdi government that is dysfunctional due to ally woes with each passing day, BJP will be utterly destroyed by 2019 (assuming it even survives one full term). Already you can see just how hard it is to recover in Karnataka, thanks to the damage done by Yediyurappa's antics. Why do you think any damage done to BJP organisation in non-traditional states can be repaired any more easily?

In fact, we are going too far. Expect PMK, DMDK, TDP, etc to discover secularism, and break away from the BJP if they get a chance to participate in the Third Front government if BJP gets <200. On the other hand, BJP can focus on building itself up as a credible opposition in WB, TN and Odisha using the developmental politics USP now, thanks to NaMo. Focussing on state units, and finding good state leaders is the desperately needed organisational task. If BJP can do that, leaving the Congress and Third Front to build another dysfunctional coalition, the BJP can develop its state units to be fully capable of taking on the others by next polls (I don't believe Congress will let a Third Front government last one full term).

In fact there is another reason why NaMo will find it hard to get allies.

The political system in India, in most places and for most parties, is dependent on caste/community appeasement, and patronage of one, or more sections of the society. The patronage networks range from the top to the bottom. There are a lot of stakeholders in the patronage networks, and all of them have have something to gain by their political parties coming to power, and something to lose by others coming to power. Nevertheless, while the total number of people who are involved in these patronage networks is large, it is a tiny fraction of the total population. The vote appeal of most parties is based on a crass appeal to one segment of the population. A winning combination of castes and communities underpins the electoral success of the existing political parties. If the political parties win, the castes/communities can expect to profit. This is a cold blooded division of the society into for and against camps. Developmental politics is given lip service, but the accent is on offering freebies and niceties to the targeted section/s of the society. High quality basic services are given the go by, simply because it is impossible to offer basic services like water, roads, electricity, etc, efficiently, and effectively, in this system. The tax payer pays for the patronage doled out by the political parties to their favoured constituents. This is what a colleague of mine calls the C-System.

However, the advent of Narendra Modi changes the entire frame of reference. His true claim to fame is not the caste, creed, community appeal of the others. His true USP is that of a no-nonsense man, who can ensure development without reference to the origin. He himself stands as a testimony to the ability of a simple tea vendor, a commoner to rise above all obstacles to become the true leader of India. He has an excellent track record of ensuring development in his state. In other words, from the networks of patronage, he changes the basis of Indian polity to development for all. This is the true reason why Narendra Modi is more popular than Mayawati among Dalits, more popular among Yadavs than Mulayam and Laloo, more popular among Jats than Hooda and Ajit Singh, more popular among Brahmins than Sushma Swaraj and C P Joshi. In one stroke, Narendra Modi threatens to make all other parties redundant or undercut their appeal massively, if he succeeds, even to an extent, in ushering in true development. Other BJP chief ministers like Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, and Manohar Parrikar, have begun to mimic him, and are becoming popular in their states. They are blowing away the opposition and the Congress (and its clones) have no answer to this change of politics. Also, there is a massive number of people whose patronage is threatened by the rise of Modi style developmental politics. Consequently, he is the Yamadoot for the C-System, which cannot handle him. He has to be stopped, and cannot be allowed to succeed. If he succeeds, he will have inevitably changed the voting patterns across the country, sending most parties to the dustbin of history.

[Shanmukh]

Just for the sake of references, I am posting my own estimates of Congress and BJP for 2014 elections too.

Andhra Pradesh-1 Cong, 1 BJP
Arunachal Pradesh-1 Cong, 1 BJP
Assam-5 Cong, 5 BJP
Bihar-5 Cong, 19 BJP
Chhattisgarh-3 Cong, 8 BJP
Gujarat-4 Cong, 22 BJP
Goa-1 Cong, 1 BJP.
Haryana-3 Cong, 4 BJP
Himachal Pradesh-2 Cong, 2 BJP
Jammu & Kashmir-1 Cong, 1 BJP
Jharkhand-2 Cong, 9 BJP
Karnataka-16 Cong, 10 BJP
Kerala-12 Cong, 0 BJP
Madhya Pradesh-5 Cong, 24 BJP
Maharashtra-12 Cong, 15 BJP.
Manipur-2 Cong, 0 BJP
Meghalaya-1 Cong, 0 BJP
Mizoram-1 Cong, 0 BJP
Nagaland-0 Cong, 0 BJP
Odisha-4 Cong, 1 BJP.
Punjab-8 Cong, 1 BJP.
Rajasthan-4 Cong, 21 BJP
Sikkim-0 Cong, 0 BJP.
Tamil Nadu-0 Cong, 1 BJP
Telangana-8 Cong, 1 BJP
Tripura-0 Cong, 0 BJP.
Uttarakhand-1 Cong, 4 BJP.
Uttar Pradesh-7 Cong, 38 BJP
West Bengal-3 Cong, 1 BJP
Andaman & Nicobar-0 Cong, 1 BJP
Chandigarh-1 Cong, 0 BJP
Dadra & Nagar Haveli-0 Cong, 1 BJP
Daman & Diu-0 Cong, 1 BJP
Delhi-1 Cong, 5 BJP
Lakshadweep-1 Cong, 0 BJP
Pondicherry-0 Cong, 0 BJP
Total-115 Cong, 198 BJP

[Anantha]

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/sa ... qI.twitter

Mamta looks like did the chit fund scam, no wonder Didi's asst. Derek no' brain is attacking Modi

[muraliravi]

^^^ nagesh ji, bihar congress 5, was that a typo

[Hari Seldon]

Hmmm. so BRF gurus are saying the conservative lotus tally this time will be ~ 190-200.

Wahan, we have amitbhai shah reeling out his 'conservative' estimate of 272 (for NDA, not just BJP). Time will tell who's more right. Truth is likely to be somewhere in between of course...

[Gus]

190-200 is like the most conservative sure shot tally?

This election will throw all calculations haywire with cross votings of bases, first timers (old and young).

[RamaY]

My prediction
BJP 240+, NDA 300+
Congress 70, UPA 90-100
Turd front = 120-150

[Shanmukh]

^^^ nagesh ji, bihar congress 5, was that a typo

No, not a typo. I was a bit generous with the Cong candidates, but they have struck a good deal with Laloo. There are 3 sure winners (Meira Kumar in Sasaram, Ashrarul Haque in Kishanganj, and Ashok Ram in Samastipur). I also see 3 more with good chances, so I was generous and gave them 2 out of 3, for a total of 5.

[Shanmukh]

Thats all fine, but those who voted for the BJP and in face of severe challenges deserve more than being told, "Accha organization is growing, chalo next time". 2009 took a lot out of many of us, and if 2014 turns out to be more the same, and with BJP folks also acting coy, then they will just tire out a whole bunch of folks. Besides which stating that India can go to the dawgs, and BJP should just wait and watch is not what many expect of NaMo/BJP.

In 2009, people voted for the Congress. In any case, you are asking for the impossible, I think. BJP has not invested anything in building its own organisation, hankering after alliances, hoping to ride to power on the backs of its allies since 1998 (and more so, 1999), and yet, people want results yesterday. Sorry, that does not happen. BJP has started growing again today. Building up a base from scratch takes time, usually 5-10 years. That is exactly what is happening. BJP has started working on its organisation now, expect decent results only in 2019.

[sivab]

Betting market ...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 343220.cms

Bookies stop offering bets on Rahul ​Gandhi

As May 16 nears, leading bookies in Rajkot, Indore and Ahmedabad have stopped offering bets on Rahul Gandhi as the next prime minister of India, suggesting that the Congress VP does not stand much of a chance to move into 7 Race Course Road after the Lok Sabha poll results are out in mid-May. Even a month ago, some bookies were offering odds of about Rs 6-7 for Gandhi to be the PM, while the rate for Arvind Kejriwal, the founder of Aam Aadmi Party, was about Rs 500-525.

In contrast to Rahul Gandhi, the rate for Narendra Modi, the BJP candidate for the PM post, is 45 paise, nearly unchanged from what the rate was about a month ago. This means if one bets Rs 100 on Modi to assume the coveted office in Delhi's South Block, and he actually becomes the PM after May 16, one would get Rs 145.

"Rahul Gandhi is not a running item any more," said a person who is aware of the rates. According to the person, the rates in other parts of the country would differ by 1-2 paise, and not much.

In the Rajkot-Indore circles, the rates for the NDA coming to power is 44 paise. The rates for the BJP, which led the alliance that ruled the country from 1999-2004, getting 200 Lok Sabha seats is 46 paise and 58 paise for 250 seats. This rate has slightly changed what was offered about 10 days ago, — 50 paise to 75 paise for the BJP getting 250 seats — indicating the party has a lower chance of getting to that level.

Bookies are also betting heavily about the Congress getting less than 100 Lok Sabha seats, with the rates for it getting 85-90 seats at Rs 1.60-1.70, the person related to bookies said.

Rates in these betting hubs of the country nearly match what several opinion polls have been predicting. An opinion poll by Times Now — C Voter put 227 seats for the BJP-led NDA, while for the Congress-led UPA the number was 101 seats. The opinion poll also puts 215 seats for all non-NDA, non-UPA parties combined.

[Karan M]

Thats all fine, but those who voted for the BJP and in face of severe challenges deserve more than being told, "Accha organization is growing, chalo next time". 2009 took a lot out of many of us, and if 2014 turns out to be more the same, and with BJP folks also acting coy, then they will just tire out a whole bunch of folks. Besides which stating that India can go to the dawgs, and BJP should just wait and watch is not what many expect of NaMo/BJP.

In 2009, people voted for the Congress. In any case, you are asking for the impossible, I think. BJP has not invested anything in building its own organisation, hankering after alliances, hoping to ride to power on the backs of its allies since 1998 (and more so, 1999), and yet, people want results yesterday. Sorry, that does not happen. BJP has started growing again today. Building up a base from scratch takes time, usually 5-10 years. That is exactly what is happening. BJP has started working on its organisation now, expect decent results only in 2019.

I am asking for the essential, not the impossible. Like it or not, if BJP has to survive, it has to form the govt. Things were pretty bad in the past 8 years, and with SIMI types on the rise, EJs everyplace and RSS on the back foot throughout with manufactured cases. What do you think will happen by 2019 if BJP is out of power?

It took merely two odd years for a Manchurian candidate called AK to be manufactured and propped up thanks to the 1:60, conversion effect, and that too in all probability as an "experiment". In five years a lot can happen, and NaMo will be 68, no spring chicken.

It is all or nothing now.

If BJP comes into power now, even with middling results, it can still swing the next elections if it carries its allies along and with savvy deal makers like Amit Shah etc around.

What you don't seem to understand, is that this is not a question of "Wait till India implodes, BJP does the right thing, people reward it", in five years time, the BJP may also find itself weakened along with the rest of India as efforts to split/divide it continue, and there will be enough idiots like LKA, SS etc who for personal power will go along with the downslide.

Next, don't underestimate the gullibility of the urban Indian voter & the elite, who can buy into any slick org helmed by Honest Abduls like Kejriwal selling IIT/IIM/Havuhd/Stanford/big name certified badge of personal capability to peddle snake oil to the masses.

Why there were folks on BRF itself tut tutting about any "attack" on RaGa as he was from "Cambridge" which meant "he was intelligent". Such is the state of affairs.

What we have seen with the Modi wave is pure bloody luck- that MMS was not just incompetent, but spectacularly so and INC was not just corrupt but arrogantly so, and hence the public, Macaulayized as it is, is still looking at NaMo, purely out of its own self interest. They are fickle.

By 2019, NaMo may not be the force he was, and a SSC or a VR or a Parrikar may not be able to generate or even create the kind of buzz NaMo did this time around with the likes of Shah and RSS assisting.

Its all or nothing.

IMO, BJP should take the reigns of power & even replicating what NDA did & being far more savvy in voter management (and not overconfident like ABV) may still get them success in 2019. And buy them enough time to build their own org as well, and give them access to the reigns of power which have significant advantages by themselves (prevent more AAP style fake outfits from emerging as proxies).

Sitting out and waiting is not only going to be disastrous for India but will also ensure BJPs enemies get enough to beat them with. Your perspective may be different, colored from a distant perspective, but I see enough of my own peers and many others as well, who voted for BJP hoping for it to stand up when it needs to, not play some grand strategy wait & watch. Never mind, it too will get badly hit when next bunch of Diggies and Khurshids coopt the media-business-bureaucracy-enforcement apparatus.

If BJP has to survive, it has to shape the future, not sit on its haunches hoping for some third front to make a mess of things. From the likes of it, a bigger criminal empire will be put in place, with a single objective, to prevent any Hindu consolidation & to decimate the BJP & RSS. Plain and simple. And the average LKA, AJ type in the BJP today at Delhi doesn't seem to have the guts to call a spade or a spade, or even the ability to understand this. And the RSS, for all its contributions, took till this election to realize the trouble it was in, if it didn't assist the BJP whole heartedly unlike 2009. Its all or nothing, and multi tasking has to be done. Not some linear, this then that, then this then that. Build your org together along with governing the country. No easy choices.

[Anantha]

^ As the paisa number gets lower better is the chance for BJP to win . For example on May 16th the rate will become zero paisa, meaning 100 rs on NDA will fetch 100 rs (actually 98-99 rs) after bookie commision. So increase by 4 paisa for 200 seats, and 17 paisa for 250 seats means odds of getting 250 is less tha what it was 10 days ago.
The important number is Congis getting 85-90 seats with a rate of 1.60-1.70. This means Congis will be lucky to make it to 90.
Where are rest of the seats? It means bookies are unable to predict the NDA seats. So the range is 200-350 for NDA (as 50 paisa and 75 paisa are still low rates compared to what is offered for congis to get to 90 seats-it is a direct comparison 1 paisa =1 paisa)

[sudarshan]

What's the record of these satta operators? Can we treat this as an informal street-smart survey? Or will all the Kejri-betters gang up and vote for Kejri just in hopes of collecting the 500:1 payoff?

[muraliravi]

Even CSDS exit polls were wrong in 2009. Unless, they've improved methodology, I see no reason for them to be right this time.

If the NDA can't get well over 272 on its own, there will be groups that will buy off MPs with outside money from the gulf and EJs. A bare minimum NDA government IMHO won't last a full term.

Here are the exit polls in 2009

Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

I would say csds was closest to reality, they got NDA almost perfect, they predicted the wind correctly, but just did not predict the extent of UPA victory very accurately. So I would not conclude that they were wrong, and surely they were not right either.

[Anantha]

When a cricket match is going on I rely more on one Internet betting site rather than commentators. I have found them very accurate.
Same thing with this satta operators, they are not guided by emotions. They have to shell out real cash at the end of the day, so they are pretty accurate however, erring on the side of caution for eg the rate for Modi govt should be around 25 paisa but they have kept it higher so that in an upset they do not lose much. During an upset they will make money from the other side ie turd front in this case.
unlike in cricket you cannot pay some one and make Kejri PM, as there are not enough votes. Do not forget if you bet on Kejri, there would be less people betting on him as uou lose that rupee. So even if khujli becomes PM (God forbid) the satta guy would have made money from the guys who lost their bets on Modi (100:145)

[Kakkaji]

Why is the EC taking one week between each phase of elections? It used to be about 3 days, and that should have been enough time to prepare for the next phase. This is either rank incompetence or plain malfeasance.

[manju]

Nageshks....He has an excellent track record of ensuring development in his state. In other words, from the networks of patronage, he changes the basis of Indian polity to development for all. This is the true reason why Narendra Modi is more popular than Mayawati among Dalits, more popular among Yadavs than Mulayam and Laloo, more popular among Jats than Hooda and Ajit Singh, more popular among Brahmins than Sushma Swaraj and C P Joshi.

This sounds like a shloka in BhagavdGeeta..Krishna telling Arjuna... "Among the fish I am the shark, Among the mountains I am meru (?), etc..... !!!

[Cosmo_R]

Why is the EC taking one week between each phase of elections? It used to be about 3 days, and that should have been enough time to prepare for the next phase. This is either rank incompetence or plain malfeasance.

Bijli, pani, sadak

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... reno64-wsj

"In India, Election Officials Brave Hungry Crocodiles to Reach Voters"

[KLP Dubey]

Don't worry boys, have curry.

May 16: BJP 272+, NDA 300+.

INC will not cross 10 seats in any state of Bharatvarsh, not even in KA.

Chor luterey khabardaar
Abki baar Modi sarkaar

[Saral]

When a cricket match is going on I rely more on one Internet betting site rather than commentators. I have found them very accurate.
Same thing with this satta operators, they are not guided by emotions. They have to shell out real cash at the end of the day, so they are pretty accurate however, erring on the side of caution for eg the rate for Modi govt should be around 25 paisa but they have kept it higher so that in an upset they do not lose much. During an upset they will make money from the other side ie turd front in this case.
unlike in cricket you cannot pay some one and make Kejri PM, as there are not enough votes. Do not forget if you bet on Kejri, there would be less people betting on him as uou lose that rupee. So even if khujli becomes PM (God forbid) the satta guy would have made money from the guys who lost their bets on Modi (100:145)

I should imagine that the rates depend on betting patterns. So if punters are irrational, then the rates of return offered need not reflect the "true" odds. What this does imply is that someone who is savvy can exploit this gap. But likely, satta operators have mechanisms to prevent such exploits (by quickly changing the rates). I am not sure why Rahul as PM was removed. Wouldn't people get greedy and pay to get such high returns. Are Satta operators worried about worst case scenarios? The report said that RG wasn't going to do well; Maybe they are confident of having enough people already betting on RG and dont want more risk. That's all the more reason to offer odds on him as well as they do in the case of AK49 and collect free money.

[Suraj]

Assuming a 10% bookie's cut, odds of 46p on Modi means that approx 2/3rds of all the money being bet is betting on Modi.