Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 29 Apr 2014 07:12

I have to disagree with the concept of waiting it out if the seat count does not exceed 200. With the unprecedented wave of change and Modi's appeal ( not BJP ), if the tally doesn't cross 200 in this election, it would mean that there has been wide spread EVM / voter fraud. Being in govt. congis would have been able to pull it off. Now, what is the guarantee that BJP will do better the next time with no Modi wave? Zip, zero, zilch, nada. It is now or never.

Even with a minority govt. and having to make compromises, nation and the party would be far better off than occupying the opposition benches. At least being in power will prevent large scale voter fraud in the next election cycle.

Like pappu has mentioned, no one will be riding in on a white horse to save the nation and BJP in the next election.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Apr 2014 07:13

KLP Dubey wrote:Don't worry boys, have curry.
May 16: BJP 272+, NDA 300+.
INC will not cross 10 seats in any state of Bharatvarsh, not even in KA.

Chor luterey khabardaar
Abki baar Modi sarkaar

Data based analysis is very important. Being conservative in wars is even more important.

But if past is the only basis for change,then we can never come out of this triple colonization of Islam, Christian west and now Secular congress.

Abki Baar Modi Sarkaar!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Apr 2014 07:21

without a past, there is no future.
past has to change for the future.

now on what basis you want to change the past
is your choice of freedom to establish in the future

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 29 Apr 2014 07:22

Saral
Rahul as a PM was removed because people are not betting even at 1:500 on Rahul at that point odds become high risk.
Rates are not based on betting patterns or volumes, it is based on calculations of Satta operators, similar to 543/Muraliravi type studies.
Your last part is correct, very high risk-less money making proposition.
For eg cricket match betting are based on experts calculating odds thru out the game and changing odds based on the current match position.Before the start of 2011 WC final India had odds of 1 : 1.65 and SL 1:2.20 (approx numbers). The numbers hovered around the same area thru out the game. When India lost Sachin and Sehwag cheaply, for about 10 minutes the odds reversed and showed SL would win. After that it went back to India winning, with the 1:1.75 going down steadily and reaching 1 at the end of the match. Hope this helps.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 29 Apr 2014 07:35

My guess is that NDA will touch 230+ and form government with outside support.

Voter list manipulation, a paid for media, EVM & booth capture and also a visible section of the population being dhimmified cannot be ignored.

I'm sometimes amazed at even seeing Parsees/Christians supporting islamo-pandering politicians rather than someone who is remotely Hindu.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 29 Apr 2014 08:14

This election can be compared only to that of 1984. The opinion polls should be taken to judge the mood or the trend and not the exact numbers. The so called "failed opinion polls" did predict the mood. This time the mood is anti-congress "perfect storm" and NAMO' simple strategy is to cash it out to the max and prevent it to reach the regional players in which they have achieved success. The actual vote % and tally should be predicted base on this simple fact. So my prediction will be

BJP = 250, NDA = 300
CONG = 80, UPA = 120 ( RJD, NCP each having 15 )
Others = 120 ( SP, BSP, TMC, AIADMK, BJD each have around 20)

And all this talk about rigging. Well, we are assuming that BJP is a gentlemans party and does not indulge in it. It is like the perception that the Indian Army is never crossing the LOC and bursting out the paki and chini bunkers. If TMC could win against the left - which was the master in rigging - then the theory that rigging will negate the popular vote should be laid to rest.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Apr 2014 08:16

I wonder if Modi going aggressive against JJ and MB is an indication of reaching near 272 or a desperate act to get as many as possible above 200...

I think it is the former because Modi has no incentive to strengthen DMK/Congress or CPI/Congress alliance by splitting anti termite votes.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 29 Apr 2014 08:17

bookies offering 85-90 seats to congis is clear indication of things to come. NDA >280 seats

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 29 Apr 2014 08:23

It is the former. The later scenario would require a strategy that will keep the door open. NAMO is now going for the kill. Listen to his current interviews. He is clearly saying "congress ja chuka...". So NAMO has upped the bar from 272+ to 300+ for BJP alone

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Apr 2014 08:33

Hari Seldon wrote:Hmmm. so BRF gurus are saying the conservative lotus tally this time will be ~ 190-200.

Wahan, we have amitbhai shah reeling out his 'conservative' estimate of 272 (for NDA, not just BJP). Time will tell who's more right. Truth is likely to be somewhere in between of course...

HS
PMO is setting files on fire. Do you think that's a sinners move?

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 29 Apr 2014 08:36

Anantha wrote:Saral
Rahul as a PM was removed because people are not betting even at 1:500 on Rahul at that point odds become high risk.
Rates are not based on betting patterns or volumes, it is based on calculations of Satta operators, similar to 543/Muraliravi type studies.
Your last part is correct, very high risk-less money making proposition.
For eg cricket match betting are based on experts calculating odds thru out the game and changing odds based on the current match position.Before the start of 2011 WC final India had odds of 1 : 1.65 and SL 1:2.20 (approx numbers). The numbers hovered around the same area thru out the game. When India lost Sachin and Sehwag cheaply, for about 10 minutes the odds reversed and showed SL would win. After that it went back to India winning, with the 1:1.75 going down steadily and reaching 1 at the end of the match. Hope this helps.

I thought AK49 had 1:500 odds and that Rahul only had 1:6 or so? I am wondering how operators make money. With modi, you may get 50 paise for every rupee. That's still a really good return. If 80% of the money is on Modi how on earth can they make money? They will if Modi doesn't become PM. But otherwise? Unless there are lots of other bets that are even more attractive. They would need to get people betting on other outcomes as well (250 or more etc for NDA). Too bad this betting isn't legalized as in many countries. Lost revenues.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 29 Apr 2014 08:40

Waiting for May 16 has definitely taken a hit on productivity. All reasonable info suggests NDA > 272, quite likely > 300. That's shades of 1984.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 29 Apr 2014 08:48

When asked if Muslims will stand by the Samajwadi Party in spite of last year's Muzaffarnagar riots, where the Samajwadi Party government failed them badly, Iqbal says, "Mistakes do happen, but the SP is still very much a pro-Muslim party. Under the SP government it is not easy for the police to file false case against Muslims as it used to happen under other governments."

Mohammad Anees, another businessman, feels, "The Muzaffarnagar riots happened so suddenly that the administration could not act in time and therefore things went out of control. One cannot blame (UP Chief Minister) Akhilesh (Yadav) for failing the Muslims, it was the bureaucracy that failed him badly." m are different

"The Muslims of Uttar Pradesh have made up their mind," says Khan. "It is either the SP or the Congress. Whoever has the strongest candidate to take on the BJP, Muslims will vote for that party. And no way will there be a Modi sarkar in 2014."

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/ls-el ... 140428.htm

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2014 09:05

RamaY wrote:I wonder if Modi going aggressive against JJ and MB is an indication of reaching near 272 or a desperate act to get as many as possible above 200...

I think it is the former because Modi has no incentive to strengthen DMK/Congress or CPI/Congress alliance by splitting anti termite votes.

In WB, the left is now scratching their head. Their well-planned Sarada Scam accusation against Mamata has been squarely stolen by NaMo, and Mamata has vented her anger with much fury. Now it has become NaMo vs. Mamata, and no one is talking about the left parties any more.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 29 Apr 2014 09:11

I wonder if Modi going aggressive against JJ and MB is an indication of reaching near 272 or a desperate act to get as many as possible above 200...

It is a short term attack....Hence more likely to be the second one. After elections they could be back on the same table discussing an aid package in return for outside support.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 29 Apr 2014 09:13

nikhil wagle ‏@waglenikhil 3m
All interviews of Narendra Modi till now don't fit into normal standards of journalism. Look at d body language n questions of interviewers.

nikhil wagle ‏@waglenikhil 14s
Not a single interviewer of Modi has shown guts to ask pointed follow up questions n replied to his arrogant barbs at media.

nikhil wagle ‏@waglenikhil 4m
Never seen such a spate of fixed or semi fixed interviews in my 35 yrs of journalistic journey.
What kind of example r we setting ?
Expand

Like I said, need to watch what the CongI chatter on the internet is..

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 29 Apr 2014 09:36

manju wrote:I think we should start calling others as anti-Hindu party.

Absolutely. I wonder why BJP doesn't do that when Cong and others have no problem in labelling it as anti-Muslim party. BJP should pin the tag of anti-Hinduism on all its opponents (which is actually true as well). This will create a guilt complex among Hindus for supporting parties other than BJP and Cong will think twice about introducing lop-sided policies to favour the Muslims as that will deepen its anti-Hindu image.

niran · Post by **niran** » 29 Apr 2014 09:51

the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 29 Apr 2014 09:53

Kati wrote:
RamaY wrote:I wonder if Modi going aggressive against JJ and MB is an indication of reaching near 272 or a desperate act to get as many as possible above 200...

I think it is the former because Modi has no incentive to strengthen DMK/Congress or CPI/Congress alliance by splitting anti termite votes.
In WB, the left is now scratching their head. Their well-planned Sarada Scam accusation against Mamata has been squarely stolen by NaMo, and Mamata has vented her anger with much fury. Now it has become NaMo vs. Mamata, and no one is talking about the left parties any more.

I am getting a feeling that a chunk of the nominally left voter who dislike TMC would vote BJP this time because of yesterday.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 29 Apr 2014 09:53

niran wrote:the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.

Yesterday during NaMo's interview at Zee -- a very perceptive person who does people reading for a living said -- "he is carrying/wearing Victory on his head" about NaMo.

It was not the interview of an aspirant. It was interview of some one who is PM, almost.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 29 Apr 2014 10:00

we do have a bunch of people who get all nervous at the first imaginary sign of trouble.

reminds me of the WC2011 thread. the moment couple of guys got out, the r&d shuru hogaya..

have faith people. bolo zor se..abki baar...

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 29 Apr 2014 10:01

SwamyG wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Please also note that, I am not inclined to place heavy trust on 5forty3 for Orissa and TN. He/his team has not done the survey there. They are using 3rd party sources in these states and it will be better to not expect any returns for the BJP there. Again, in orissa csds march tracker did give BJP 3-7 seats, so it may very well be the case, but I prefer to be conservative. Even UP they may go much higher. who knows, but I can say with reasonable confidence that BJP will get AT LEAST 188
BJP can get at least 2 on their own in TN.

At the least , surely BJP-1 (Kanyakumari) & PMK-1 (Dharmapuri) & hence at least 2 for NDA in TN.
That should make the conservative final tally go to 190.

sum · Post by **sum** » 29 Apr 2014 10:13

niran wrote:the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.

Saar,

This is excluding Gujarat and only among the seats completed so far, i presume?

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 29 Apr 2014 10:14

niran wrote:the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.

Niranullah - jou are wrong onleeeeee, modi will lose onleeeeeeeeeee

niran · Post by **niran** » 29 Apr 2014 10:16

suryag wrote:
niran wrote:the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.
Niranullah - jou are wrong onleeeeee, modi will lose onleeeeeeeeeee

aaah! of course! how could me forget this, plis to forgive
Modi will lose onree.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 29 Apr 2014 10:35

niran wrote:the current score stands BJP 257 seats in 90% zone, so for all practical purpose BJP already formed a Govt.
and Poorvanchal 32 seats is yet to vote hence NaMo lightening fire under so called satraps @rses.

And total of 69 seats yet to be polled in UP/Bihar.

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/Schedule/Phase9.htm

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Apr 2014 11:17

there can be only one pm
there can be only one dilbu

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 29 Apr 2014 11:28

Yes SaiK is right.
Only Dilbu has the right to do that.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 29 Apr 2014 11:29

lets hope he doesnt blabber that in his sleep

James B · Post by **James B** » 29 Apr 2014 11:37

Suraj wrote:Muppalla, yes I remember your 2009 effort. It may have been far off the mark, but you made an effort to collect and project using the available data, as opposed to just emotion driven talk, which I appreciate

Some thoughts in response.
* ECI data shows that for AP assembly, 2004 turnout was 70% and 2009 turnout was 72.2% . I argue that this does not show any sort of massive increase or wave for change, and well within poll to poll turnout variance; the past several AP VS elections have turnouts ranging from 68-73%, so 2009 was not outside historical range at all.

In 2009, TDP would have sailed through both in assembly & general elections if not for that Torjan Praja Rajyam Party floated by Chiranjivee with the backing of YSR. 2009 was a anti-government vote in AP but it got split due to PRP giving good results to YSR. And rest is history.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Apr 2014 11:39

EconomicTimes ‏@EconomicTimes 1h

2 FIRs registered against #Ramdev in Gorakhpur under SC/ST Act (Times Now)

Anuj 'Gandhi' Gupta ‏@anujg 13h

And she married an industrialist, irony just died "@rupasubramanya: .@nanditadas railing against corporates & capitalism

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Apr 2014 11:55

Tarek Fatah ‏@TarekFatah 2h

Muslim men gang-rape a Muslim political worker in India after they couldn't dissuade her from working for the BJP. pic.twitter.com/fopCjCKP7u

S Gurumurthy ‏@sgurumurthy 2h

"@aknarendranath: A Muslim lady BJP worker raped! http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140429/j ... HM.twitter …" Is this secular rape? The other way communal? Await seculars reply

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 29 Apr 2014 11:58

NaMo will lose onlee.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Apr 2014 12:04

No way to confirm such rumor but if true it means that while NaMo may not target "news traders" he is certainly not going to forgive them. In fact I have noticed that as the elections draw to a close his language on "news traders" has become more aggressive. Watch his interviews in chronological order. A sign of things to come?

Ch Swarup Das ‏@swarupdas 2h

As per sources Shekhar Gupta had gone to meet Modi recently and was refused a handshake.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 29 Apr 2014 12:11

If I recall correctly - Shekhar Gupta had gone to Pakistan prior to 2004 elections and in a public speech promised to "take care of the BJP" - when Arvind Lavkare wrote about this in rediff, he was first threatened by lawsuits. Lavkare refereed to public record of his statements and then Shekhar begged to the then rediff editor in the name of his children.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 29 Apr 2014 12:12

pankajs wrote:No way to confirm such rumor but if true it means that while NaMo may not target "news traders" he is certainly not going to forgive them. In fact I have noticed that as the elections draw to a close his language on "news traders" has become more aggressive. Watch his interviews in chronological order. A sign of things to come?

Very reliably learnt that Shekar Gupta had indeed gone to meet NaMo to mend bridges. Was given a reaming and sent his way.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 29 Apr 2014 12:17

paid media anchors must be using adult diapers after this, if he remembers what happened in 2004, will he forget what they are doing now

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 29 Apr 2014 12:18

Not a very convincing line IMHO .. Even if they did not think Piggy was going to enter battle this season shoudnt they have been prepared?

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 2h

Rajasthan government will probe Vadra's land deals after LS polls: BJP http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 352142.cms

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 29 Apr 2014 12:21

Pankaj, Raj was won in Dec 2013, they had to work for LS 2014 before model code became operative. Vadra was logically a lower priority.

For Voters putting Vadra to jail is a lower priority.

Why go after Vadra before LS and be distracted.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 29 Apr 2014 12:21

thats what they can do, only when they come to power