Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 01 May 2014 10:27

NaREGA rhymyes with naraka

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 01 May 2014 10:44

Only 105 seats left for grab and two weeks before the D day.
I'm confused whether to come to office on 16th and watch it in lively office atmosphere, full of chit chat ..
Or sit back at home in cosy comfy state,glued to the TV, enjoying the SHQ supplied snacks & soft drinks etc.

Is anyone else planning May 16th yet?

Regards,
Virendra

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 01 May 2014 10:45

i will take a day off

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 01 May 2014 10:48

Niran Bhaiya, what's the assessment on Bihar's seat which polled yesterday?

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 01 May 2014 10:50

I will be taking a day off. I've invited 3 of my fellow jingo friends over. We will set up a command center with 3 laptops and 2 TVs to get the latest info from the early morning. I hope we will have an occasion to crack open some champagne that.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 11:04

Virendra wrote:Or sit back at home in cosy comfy state,glued to the TV, enjoying the SHQ supplied snacks & soft drinks etc.
Is anyone else planning May 16th yet?

Yeah, man! That's the way to do it.

Me, I am landing in LKO early morning on May 16. All arrangements made at in-laws place for a family gathering. I am expecting an NDA victory - much better to watch it from the heartland than sitting at my parents' place in TVM amidst a bunch of f**king commies doing victory marches in the streets.

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 01 May 2014 11:07

RamaY wrote:
harbans wrote:What happens if BJP/NDA gets 138-148 seats and UPA gets 212 seats in LS 2014?
Nothing, continuation of 2004-14. Many R2I plans (not mine) will be differed.

I will definitely rethink my plans of R2I if NaMo-led govt does not come to power.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 May 2014 11:48

I suggest don't take the day off, picture will be clear only at night. I will not be suprised if the 3rd front govt comes to power

durvasa · Post by **durvasa** » 01 May 2014 12:25

I will be in Srinagar/Sonamarg on holiday on 16th. Told my family that we are going to stay in hotel on 16th, except early morning and late evening. I have also ensured that the hotel I am staying has a good TV and net connection. Will be fun to see the reaction on the streets.

niran · Post by **niran** » 01 May 2014 13:02

gandharva wrote:Niran Bhaiya, what's the assessment on Bihar's seat which polled yesterday?

clean sweep bjp wash

ye folks have it too easy planning holiday and all
me is on vacation (2nd in 15 years) sigh! no! me ain't jealous just perish the thought

munna · Post by **munna** » 01 May 2014 13:20

Jingos and Jinganiyos here is something of a "not bad" news. Bad news is that we are not winning, good news is that we have not been swept away either (izaat bachegi types). At least my roots district is going NDA way. After thinking a lot and worrying even more I would like to present the contrast in statements of INC State in Charge Shakil Ahmed. Since I am not on twitter please disseminate these towel throwing news items to deflate AAP-Con balloons!

Congress will win more than ten seats in Punjab: Shakeel Ahmed

DATED: Apr 24, 2014, IBNLIVE

Narendra Modi's visit to Punjab is not going to boost the poll prospects of SAD-BJP candidates as there is a "strong anti-incumbency" against Akali government in the state, Congress on Thursday said.
All India Congress Committee (AICC) General Secretary Shakeel Ahmed also claimed that Congress will bag 10 out of total 13 seats of the state. "Congress will win more than ten out of total 13 seats in Punjab," he said.

AAP may play spoilsport, admits Congress

DATED: 30, April 2014, TRIBUNE CHD

Speaking to The Tribune today, Shakeel Ahmed, Congress general secretary in charge of Punjab, admitted that AAP was a significant force in the state and was making the contest hard to predict in several seats.
“AAP is certainly a force to reckon with in Punjab. I have to admit that because I sensed it personally from my travels across the state during election campaigning. We are expecting a significant result in Punjab and if we get less than our expectations, AAP would have done us the damage. They are not only affecting urban votes in many areas but are also affecting the rural votes,” Shakeel said.

So NDA may end up at 5+ with some luck and INC at best can manage 7-8. Without AAP muddying things it could have been 1-12 for INC! And yes, finally an AAPi may get into LS and that too from Punjab

.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 01 May 2014 13:34

BJP might stall around 200 and with allies around 240 needing 40 more for comfort. This is assuming that EVM magic is not so blatant and will only reduce BJP seats by around 30 or so. EVM magic is not only rigging of the actual machines but electoral roll manipulation, outright booth capturing with EC looking the other way, voter intimidation, etc.

There is no way the C system can allow Modi to come to power.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 01 May 2014 13:38

Aditya_V wrote:I suggest don't take the day off, picture will be clear only at night. I will not be suprised if the 3rd front govt comes to power

The trend will be clear by late morning and should be more or less over in the afternoon.

munna · Post by **munna** » 01 May 2014 14:22

Keep chanting the anti-jinx mantra and the roads will open up.

Collapse of tactical voting among confused Muslims may help BJP

niran bhai and rest of polls maybe onto something

The Muslim community’s plan to vote tactically to defeat the BJP seems to have gone haywire in 14 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh that went to the polls in the fourth of six phases in the state on Wednesday.
<snip>
Jamiat Ulema Hind president Maulana Arshad Madni called for unity in the community, emphasising that tactical voting be undertaken to “frustrate the designs of the communal forces”.
<snip>
But reports from the 14 constituencies, especially Kanpur, Fatehpur, Barabanki, Jalaun and Sitapur indicated that there were sharp divisions in the community that could end up helping the BJP.
The confusion can also be attributed to the fact that almost all non-BJP parties garnered the support of one or the other cleric. While Delhi Jama Masjid Shahi Imam Ahmad Bukhari openly urged Muslims to vote for the Congress, others worked quietly for inexplicable reasons.
Lucknow, which has a high concentration of nearly 4.5 lakh Muslims, forming nearly 25% of the city’s electorate of 18.5 lakh, was a test case on Wednesday. The entire exercise to prevent division of the community’s votes collapsed during the day as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP succeeded in making dents into the minority vote bank.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2014 15:43

Amit Malviya ‏@malviyamit 1h

TMC leader Kalyan Banerjee threatens to chop Narendra #Modi.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV5PRL3GFTc … This chap outdoes @quizderek in pleasing Mamata di..

Against_Pseudos ‏@Against_Pseudos 3h

100% polling recorded by 9 am in some polling stations in Uluberia, West Bengal. How? #FIROnEC ,no? http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... 448911.cms

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 1h

JDU to support AAP in Varanasi, Sharad Yadav to campaign for Kejriwal http://www.niticentral.com/2014/05/01/j ... 18686.html …

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 01 May 2014 15:51

Since NaMo is going to lose I think fellow jingo mumbaikars should meet on 17th evening...to cry out loud.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2014 16:07

DeshGujarat ‏@DeshGujarat 2h

Two term Congress MP Vikram Madam accepts defeat against BJP's @poonam_madam by about 20000 margin, day after polling http://deshgujarat.com/2014/05/01/vikra ... e-results/ …

ANI ‏@ANI_news 9m

Lalu ji ka dimaag abhi lagta hai aadha kharab hua hai, election result ke baad poora kharab ho jaega: MJ Akbar on Lalu Yadav's comments

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 8m

SC asks its former judge, Justice MB Shah, to head the SIT appointed by it to look into black money cases: PTI

Hindustan Times ‏@htTweets 22m

SC asks Centre to furnish in sealed cover to petitioners within 3 days documents & information about cases in which probe is complete: PTI

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2014 16:29

Why give publicity hanji?

NDTV ‏@ndtv 27m

Congress Protests At BJP Office After Uma Bharti Compares Priyanka To Rakhi Sawant http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... ant-516894 … #Elections2014

dna ‏@dna 40m

Will go to Varanasi to oppose Narendra Modi: Puri Shankaracharya http://dnai.in/cbMz

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 16:30

Prem Kumar wrote:#FutureOfIndia

If NaMo becomes PM = SWARGA
If UPA comes back = NREGA

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 16:37

munna wrote:Keep chanting the anti-jinx mantra and the roads will open up.

Collapse of tactical voting among confused Muslims may help BJP

niran bhai and rest of polls maybe onto something

The Muslim community’s plan to vote tactically to defeat the BJP seems to have gone haywire in 14 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh that went to the polls in the fourth of six phases in the state on Wednesday.
<snip>
Jamiat Ulema Hind president Maulana Arshad Madni called for unity in the community, emphasising that tactical voting be undertaken to “frustrate the designs of the communal forces”.
<snip>

But reports from the 14 constituencies, especially Kanpur, Fatehpur, Barabanki, Jalaun and Sitapur indicated that there were sharp divisions in the community that could end up helping the BJP.
The confusion can also be attributed to the fact that almost all non-BJP parties garnered the support of one or the other cleric. While Delhi Jama Masjid Shahi Imam Ahmad Bukhari openly urged Muslims to vote for the Congress, others worked quietly for inexplicable reasons.
Lucknow, which has a high concentration of nearly 4.5 lakh Muslims, forming nearly 25% of the city’s electorate of 18.5 lakh, was a test case on Wednesday. The entire exercise to prevent division of the community’s votes collapsed during the day as the Congress, Samajwadi Party and AAP succeeded in making dents into the minority vote bank.

Jumma Chumma De De

member_28468 · Post by **member_28468** » 01 May 2014 16:50

I lived in ludhiana for some time and have many FB frnds from thier.
Unfoutunately having clashis with them on regular bases about AAp

some of them is not in favour of aap but are fed up with SAD .

they think they are the reason for corruption .
But on bright spot we also have namo die hards which fight them

So it is very uncertain

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 16:52

muraliravi wrote:I am going to post here how congress can get 130 so that EVM rigging theory lovers can take a moment to seriously introspect and actually understand how difficult it is push a monster called congress below 100 seats.

JK -2 (Anyone with a neutral understanding of the 2 seats in Jammu will testify to you that BJP and Cong are neck and neck here, so cong winning 2 seats needs absolutely no EVM magic)

Himachal -2 (History is witness to the fact that this is one state which has loyally alternated between BJP and cong election after election. 98 and 99 had same results, but that was becos it was considered just a repeat election, BJP won 3-1 last time, theoretically cong can win 3-1 this time, but lets say 2. Dont tell me Namo wave is special here, there have been waves before and HP still alternated)

Punjab - 6 (Enough has been discussed about Punjab here)

Haryana - 4 (2-3 is sure, but they can pull off 1-2 more close seats)

Delhi - 1

Uttar Pradesh - 8

Bihar - 4 (refer to Nagesh ji's post on congress seats in Bihar)

Jharkhand - 1

Assam - 9 (BJP can be easily stopped at 3, AGP 0, AUDF 2, rest 9 to INC)

West Bengal -5

Arunachal -2 (both are close fights and Cong can pull both off),

Mizoram, Meghalaya and Manipur (5)

Orissa - 7 (I believe that BJP will not win more than 1 seat, all their wave will split BJD vote and the loyal congress voters will help cong gain. I am not the first and only one to say this, IBTL has said the same thing and was confirmed in their survey)

TG/AP - 8

Kerala - 14 (Thanks to BJP for splitting the hindu vote royally)

Karnataka - 18 (Refer to 5forty3 prepoll he gave bjp 12 and cong 14, but put a caveat saying 9 is min for bjp and 18 is max for cong, and csds march survey, 18 is the max, but again i am telling u guys how cong can get 130)

MH - 13 (the most controversial state for cong performance, but lets stick to numbers here. Today IBNlive had a good discussion with a csds member on voting % and he had a slip of a tongue and mentioned that they were seeing do diff in their march prepoll numbers and the exit poll data they have collected in all states except a few seats in bihar where they see MY consolidation denting NDA a bit; this is exactly the feedback i have from MH instead of all the sweep we hear. Atri ji can correct if i am wrong, but he also repeatedly warns us that NDA wont cross 30 in MH. Csds Mar gave NDA 24-30 and UPA 16-22. So they can get 20, easily inc can pull of 13 and NCP 7)

Goa, Andaman, Lakshadweep and Chandigarh - 4 (Cong will win Chandigarh with gul panag destroying kiron kher's chances, Andaman swings usually and i doubt if there is any tsunamo there, there maybe a tsunami)

Rajasthan - 5 (100% sure that 5 seats will go to cong, thanks to maharani and her ego)

Gujarat - 4

Madhya Pradesh - 4 (Chindwara, Guna, Rajgarh and the seat with Bhuria and I guess even 543 was giving 3-4 seats to cong there)

Chhattisgarh - 3 (this is a minimal number, the assembly to LS conversion actually gives cong 5 seats, i wont be surprised if that happens)

Uttarakhand - 1

Thats 130 for cong. I maybe wrong in some states, but i guess the effect should cancel out, and remember i am saying max of cong. but its possible and needs no magic.

Hold it bro I think you are stressed out! No way Rjasthan is going to bring back Congi same from Chandigarh am from Chandigarh can vouch for it.

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 17:07

Mort Walker wrote:

All the jingos here are so tired of the social, economic and strategic malaise in our lifetimes that we are beholden to NAMO. All of us want NAMO to build hundreds of gallows to hang the desh drohis in all states, strengthen internal and external security and revive the economy. From day one we want UCC, repeal of Art. 370, repeal of "socialist" in the constitution, testing of TNWs+ICBMs, and Indian men on the moon. I personally want to see the tearing down of all Gandhi/Nehru statues, like what was seen of Lenin and Stalin in the early 1990s in Russia. I would also like removal of all Gandhi/Nehru names on public facilities and buildings.

I personally like the one related to removal of all Gandhi/Nehru names on public facilitiesand buildings except perhaps MKGs from few places.

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 17:09

Aditya_V wrote:I suggest don't take the day off, picture will be clear only at night. I will not be suprised if the 3rd front govt comes to power

Maybe taking a day off on 17th would be a better idea!!

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 01 May 2014 17:13

Prem Kumar wrote:#FutureOfIndia

If NaMo becomes PM = SWARGA
If UPA comes back = NREGA

NDA > 272 = NREGA Baans Na Bajegi Baansurii

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 May 2014 17:28

one thing that is missing in Congress and BJP projection, it is billed as a normal election, where con anti-incumbency is at play, along with state level alliances (advantage BJP here). The number then, BJP 190 and Con 130 or 100 makes sense. The fact being missed here is that it is not a normal election, but indeed wave election. Else why would Yadavas in first few rounds (and continuing now, less so) would vote more for BJP and less for SP/RJD? Or Jatav dalit vote in 30% range would split from Maya and come to BJP? Or suddenly BJP has huge traction in Assam, WB, TN etc where it had no hopes. If you throw that consideration, BJP number then does come to 230-250 and Con at 70. If Con does end up at 130, either there is no Namo wave or it is EVM Magic

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 01 May 2014 17:36

Hmmm i kind of like that all the anti-nationals are heading to varanasi and coming out in open on anti-namo plank! Will only provide fodder to pro-modi groups and a chance to point out how they all lack any positive ideas for progress!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 May 2014 18:10

If that complete idiot LKA had not delayed things BJP campaign could have kicked off several months earlier. At least a few more seats could have come to BJP.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 18:42

fanne wrote:one thing that is missing in Congress and BJP projection, it is billed as a normal election, where con anti-incumbency is at play, along with state level alliances (advantage BJP here). The number then, BJP 190 and Con 130 or 100 makes sense. The fact being missed here is that it is not a normal election, but indeed wave election. Else why would Yadavas in first few rounds (and continuing now, less so) would vote more for BJP and less for SP/RJD? Or Jatav dalit vote in 30% range would split from Maya and come to BJP? Or suddenly BJP has huge traction in Assam, WB, TN etc where it had no hopes. If you throw that consideration, BJP number then does come to 230-250 and Con at 70. If Con does end up at 130, either there is no Namo wave or it is EVM Magic

Sir all waves get dented if you end up listening to Baba Ramdev and foist his choice on BJP cadre in Rajasthan or screw up some crucial seats in eastern UP. I am not saying it destroys the wave, but it does make a dent and that can prove costly overall in 10-15 seats.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 May 2014 18:45

Prem Kumar wrote:#FutureOfIndia

If NaMo becomes PM = SWARGA
If UPA comes back = NREGA

nice one!

U - United they do corruption
N - igNited they quell corruption

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2014 18:56

Amit Malviya ‏@malviyamit 11m

Senior #Congress leaders believe that they will only 12 seats in #Karnataka. JDS may win 2 and rest will go to #BJP. Will Sidharammiah go?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 19:07

BTW, guys I know I am now the official pessimist on BR, but just to let you know, if BJP does get more than what I think it will, I'll be as happy as you guys will be, probably even more, because for me if they cross 200 I will be on cloud 9, but you guys may be a tad disapppointed if they get less than 225.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 May 2014 19:11

muraliravi wrote:BTW, guys I know I am now the official pessimist on BR, but just to let you know, if BJP does get more than what I think it will, I'll be as happy as you guys will be, probably even more, because for me if they cross 200 I will be on cloud 9, but you guys may be a tad disapppointed if they get less than 225.

You aren't the only one who will be delighted if BJP gets 200+, MuraliRavi-ji. I will be delighted as well. If BJP crosses 210, I will throw a party for my equally jingo friends here and have already told them so. (They all believe in wave theory, too. Guess I am just too much a particle minded creature, with a strong belief in Murphy rather than Einstein.).

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 19:22

nageshks wrote:
muraliravi wrote:BTW, guys I know I am now the official pessimist on BR, but just to let you know, if BJP does get more than what I think it will, I'll be as happy as you guys will be, probably even more, because for me if they cross 200 I will be on cloud 9, but you guys may be a tad disapppointed if they get less than 225.
You aren't the only one who will be delighted if BJP gets 200+, MuraliRavi-ji. I will be delighted as well. If BJP crosses 210, I will throw a party for my equally jingo friends here and have already told them so. (They all believe in wave theory, too. Guess I am just too much a particle minded creature, with a strong belief in Murphy rather than Einstein.).

Yes sir, lets hope for the best. Anyway I have started a new thread in GDF which may lead to a day when BJP can comfortably get 300+ on its own. Disband the first past the post system. Would love your views.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 May 2014 19:24

What happens if BJP get 75 and INC gets 340 or something? What if? or AAP get 220. INC 180. What reactions can we expect?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 May 2014 19:27

Ok on Niran Method (we all know 543 method, if not please read it at his web sites - In short he has chosen swing constituencies with mixed population to guage the mood. He has past election numbers for these constituencies to compare against and predict the swing. His basic premise is, if you get caste line voting %, wight them with caste population, then you can predict what is going on for whole LS seat, or more than 1 seat around that LS) - Niran Method is simple. Each polling booth has BJP (and other party polling booth age agents) who are local. Whenever someone goes in to vote, the polling officer announces name, all parties cross these names (to prevent double polling by someone, if they can get rid of ink mark) and object if the person is not person A. Usually people get their voting slip from the party they are going to vote (so you can count who is voting whom) or if they have a slip, they go directly and vote (and being local you know whwere that person is voting, I can point out at BR who the congress voters are). So I believe BJP is not only crossing the names also putting some symbol on where the votes are going. This lists then is collated at the end of the day and counted. From that you know who is winning what seat. Not a perfect method, but the best that is out there (better than exit polls). It of course has many shortcomings. So what Niran Ji is posting, is that inside info. His % ranges are interesting, I think too close to call he is giving to others and where there is clear advantage to BJP. I would take his numbers seriously unless 1)Niran ji is himself misinforming 2)He is being misinformed.

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 01 May 2014 19:28

harbans wrote:What happens if BJP get 75 and INC gets 340 or something? What if? or AAP get 220. INC 180. What reactions can we expect?

Impossible! But to answer your question, I will uproot myself and shift along with my family to Gujarat. If it means a significant cut in salary and creature comforts of life, so be it.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 01 May 2014 19:29

Naah then probably democracy is not the way to go

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 01 May 2014 19:30

an important question is whether a Turd Front is preferable to the Family. I much rather see Netaji, NiKu, Behenji, Didi, and Amma rotate the PM gaddi between them, at least they are not foreigners who will put India on a platter to its enemies.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 01 May 2014 19:31

harbans, the worst fear for you should be having is jhaduwala becoming PM and doing mobing all over desh and UNO.