Pawan Durani @PawanDurani 3h
1. All these parties ie Congress , JDU , RJD , @AamAadmiParty etc etc fighting hard to get share out of 15% Muslim votes.
Pawan Durani @PawanDurani 3h
2. Just proves that 15% of 'those' votes are united and means more than a divided into many Hindu votes. Long live the tradition of Hindus.
.Tavleen Singh @tavleen_singh 2h
Indresh Kumar on CNN-IBN just lost Modi some votes by talking like a narrow-minded tyrant. The RSS needs to stay away from TV
As per the CNN-IBN website he didnt say anything that could "derail" Modi campaign. He even castgated Togadiapankajs wrote:Tavleen Singh @tavleen_singh 2h
Indresh Kumar on CNN-IBN just lost Modi some votes by talking like a narrow-minded tyrant. The RSS needs to stay away from TV
anisham wrote:Exit/opinion poll of Satta market: sure BJP seats:
They give 247 to BJP alone
Cong+ at 100 is very wishful, they will easily hit 140RamaY wrote:Muraliravi garu,
Communist Party of India (Marxist) - 15
Communist Party of India - 5
Bahujan Samaj Party - 10
Biju Janata Dal - 15
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 20
Janata Dal (Secular) - 2
Samajwadi Party - 10
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 10
All India Trinamool Congress - 25
Nationalist Congress Party - 10
Rashtriya Janata Dal - 5
YSR Congress Party - 10
Telangana Rashtra Samiti - 5
Others = 8
Total = 150
Congress+ = 100
NDA = 290+
Where did I go wrong???
If they do that they know modi will win hands downDilbu wrote:@ShanyaSing: Why don't all parties unite & form one party named "Anti-Modi Party" as their target is Modi-Roko & nothing else. Why to fool public?
As for the Samajwadi Party, which has nominated a Brahmin to take on Narendra Modi, it sent 300 "tablets" to aid its workers to spread the word on the Akhilesh Yadav government's welfare schemes and how they have benefited the people of UP.
The exercise flopped, says a member of the party's youth wing, which in Varanasi is lead by one Raju Yadav. "You flip open the tablet and a film on welfare schemes of the government starts playing. The problem is the film is too long, 18 minutes and you cannot reverse or forward it. In the beginning it held interest but not for long," says the disgruntled youth wing member.
Shankar ji, RamaY ji, and Sanjay ji,ShankarCag wrote:MRji, I think I asked this before also. What are your expectations for the third front? If we take RamaY's figures for TF in addition to your 140 figure for INC that means INC plus TF is easily 290 seats which means a Mamata/Jaya/Maya lead govt aka UPA3. Right?
Sir that is what we all hope, but Mamta, Left, SP and BSP are worse than jaichand. They will all join hand to stop Modi and they have done that in UPA 1 not long ago.Patni wrote:IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.
I agree about admk and dmk and I did mention that. But I thought TMC was supporting UPA 1 from outside.Rahul M wrote:left n TMC, DMK & ADMK have not been on same side and won't be.
anisham wrote:Exit/opinion poll of Satta market: sure BJP seats:
They give 247 to BJP alone
Bull crap article. He rarely names persons with first names. He calls Sehzada, Rajamata. He did the same in AP. He was attacking Jagan at every meeting.pankajs wrote:How despite TDP, Modi may be keeping door open for Jagan
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-d ... 05591.html
How did he refer to Jagan there?Muppalla wrote:Bull crap article. He rarely names persons with first names. He calls Sehzada, Rajamata. He did the same in AP. He was attacking Jagan at every meeting.pankajs wrote:How despite TDP, Modi may be keeping door open for Jagan
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-d ... 05591.html
(1) do you want to make seemandhra as scamandhra?RajeshA wrote: How did he refer to Jagan there?
NDTV @ndtv 2h
There is a BJP wave in Amethi too, and we are fighting these elections to win: Amit Shah #Elections2014
Exactly, expectations are so high that people thing 200 or sub 200 is a defeat. IMHO, BJP has done zilch from 2004 to mid 2013. You cant expect miracles in 1 year. There is only so much that you can do in wave without ground soldiers in vast parts of the country. In fact I am surprised that they have been able to gain so much traction in UP.Muppalla wrote:With muraliravi's, tally it is very impressive that BJP came that far. At 190 I have no doubts Modi will be PM. In a margin of + or -3% error, he has taken the lowest side. I am sure this time BJP will pull to 200 to 205. NDA will pull to a position just shy of simple majority. That is my take.
I agree that this is all Modi wave.
When a mammoth crowd was witnessed at his first rally in Kanpur on October 19, many had said the crowds were a result of the continuous efforts of Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah, the party's point-man for UP. However, similar scenes of thousands converging to watch the BJP leader amply demonstrated the Modi wave was strong in the state.
And as time has passed, the Gujarat CM’s persona has become larger than life, reducing other BJP bigwigs to pygmies. Travelling across large parts of eastern and western UP, what has become more visible is that he is transcending beyond the BJP voter. Many are also looking past his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. “How long are we going to brood over what happened 12 years ago? We need to look forward,” is the common refrain of the youth in the area.
And the pro-Modi voices are only becoming louder in the area, be it in the bastions of the Congress supremos – the Gandhis, or the stronghold of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav or even in the pocket burrows of Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati. “I will vote for Modi this time,” said 24-year-old Shailendra in Bachchrawan block of Rae Bareli. Voicing similar sentiments, Ram Kumar, a shopkeeper in Jagdishpur area of Amethi said, “I have always voted for Rahul bhaiyya. But there has been no change all these years. I didn’t want Modi but somehow he appears to be genuine and offers some hope.”
In Varanasi, when 32-year-old taxi driver Sunil Kumar was asked why he was impressed with Modi, pat came the reply, “There were four people who went to Gujarat for work from my family. When they returned home, they only spoke of the development and good stories about the state. They all described Modi as a good CM and hence, I feel he will do well for all.”
Other than his Gujarat model, others also seem to be taken up by the fact that Modi has been able to rise beyond his established image of a rabid Hindutva icon. At his first rally in Kanpur, Modi had said, “Humara mahatvapoorn udeshya ye hai ki har Hindu achha Hindu bane; har Musalmaan achha Musalmaan bane, har Sikh achha Sikh bane, har Isayi achha Isayi bane aur har Buddhisht achha Buddhist bane. Aur hum sabko ek saath lekar is desh ko aage baraen (Most importantly, what we need to do is to make every Hindu a good Hindu, every Muslim a good Muslim, every Sikh a good Sikh, every Christian a good Christian and every Buddhist a good Buddhist; and then we must ensure that they all pitch in their energies together to build a good nation).”
Impressed by his ability to shun any reference to Hindutva, Rati Sharma, a software engineer told this journalist at Varanasi’s Dashwamedh Ghat, “Unlike other BJP leaders, who could not rise beyond Hindutva, Modi is clearly not interested in digging old graves. He is only focused on development.”
Can BJP get 50+ in UP?And while it is amply evident that the pro-Modi vote is strongly united, the anti-Modi vote appears to be clearly divided. And it is the clerics and leaders of different political parties that have helped to divide the anti-Modi vote, helping the BJP leader to forge ahead and fulfil his political ambitions. For instance, in Rae Bareli, influential Islamic cleric Maulana Tauqeer Raza, who had thrown his weight behind the Congress in 2009, is now openly favouring the Bahujan Samaj Party. But poll pundits reveal that his proximity to BJP’s Santosh Gangwar could accrue indirect electoral dividends to the BJP by insuring a divide of the anti-Modi vote.
His sworn rival Maulana Subhani Mian, who heads another key sect owing allegiance to the ‘dargah’ of Ala Hazrat, has decided to ostensibly remain neutral. “I leave it to your own discretion to decide who you should vote for,” he said in a statement issued earlier this month.
Significantly, in Deoband, popular cleric Maulana Asad Madani, considered as one of Modi’s most vehement opponents, also appealed to people to vote for the ‘strongest secular candidate’, without naming any political outfit. This once again, helped Modi, as it splits the anti-Modi vote further.
In Rampur, another Muslim-dominated town, the community is sharply divided between the Congress, SP and BSP, hence making it easier for BJP’s Nepal Singh and in turn, helps Modi move one step closer to the PM’s chair.
The scene is no different in once Rashtriya Lok Dal-dominated Meerut, Baghpat, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar or other neighbouring constituencies of western UP. The SP too has lost a lot of support in the region in the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar riots, which occurred last August-September. Perhaps, the delayed, albeit heavy compensation packet of Rs 13 lakh to the next of kin of each of the 62 victims killed, may help the ruling SP to rebuild bridges with Muslims.
But even if the pro-SP voices are to be believed, there is no denying that disillusionment with the Congress, failures of the Akhilesh Yadav government, poor impression left behind by the Mayawati regime and above all, a badly divided fight against Modi has boosted his strength to take the juggernaut even beyond the party’s own expectations.
Comments:
Writing is clear on the wall
by unmesh (View MyPage) on May 02, 2014 07:04 PM
I belong to UP and during the course of traveling and random talking to laymen like paan, tea or vegetable vendors or even to the urban elite and opinion makers in Lucknow, Kanpur, Unnao, Barabanki, Faizabad, Basti, Raebareli, Sitapur, Hardoi etc. One can gauge the massive polarization and penetration of Modi wave. Their is lot of social churning going on in UP
And how much did "non-minorities" get i wonder ( other than jail time)?Perhaps, the delayed, albeit heavy compensation packet of Rs 13 lakh to the next of kin of each of the 62 victims killed, may help the ruling SP to rebuild bridges with Muslims.
Guys, is there any chance that the BJP will make the government without Modi. Perhaps, maybe if the supporters demand such an arrangement.Patni wrote:IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.
State BJP internal estimations suggest 11 MLA and 3 MP seats.Interestingly both MIM and BJP claiming they will win Nizamabad Urban
jaya?satya wrote:..maya