Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

member_24042 · Post by **member_24042** » 02 May 2014 18:54

Mihaylo wrote:
Patni wrote:IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.
Guys, is there any chance that the BJP will make the government without Modi. Perhaps, maybe if the supporters demand such an arrangement.

-M

Full chance, judging by the attitude of SS. All the turd front leaders are dependent on minority votes. It is wrong to say Navin patnaik is not dependent on 15% Christian minority vote in Odisha. Muslims are the only thing that is preventing BSP from becoming a Jatav-Chamar party. Jaya has basically capitulated to the Church and islamists. So yes I see an NDA government most likely but Modi sarkaar might elude us. In that case I will forever lose interest in Indian politics and will become apathetic.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 18:57

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/breakingnews.html

05:30 pm Next govt will have rights to cancel appointments: Arun Jaitley on Snoopgate
Arun Jaitely says in a press-conference:
-12th is the last phase. There are 10 days left of an unsuccessful government. Even while going UPA's behaviour of playing with the constitution hasn't changed.
-Government officials should give correct advices. And not taking them as valid is in the hands of the next government.
-Congress will not be a major player in seats of Bihar, east UP, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Seemandhra.
-Last minute decisions by UPA government are against conventions. The next government will have the right to reject them: Arun Jaitley on Snoopgate
-It's well within the rights of the next government to cancel the new appointments.
-For last 5 months, they couldn't find a judge to probe Snoopgate, now in desperation they want to fill that position hastily.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 02 May 2014 18:58

^I'm sorry, but the BJP has categorically stated that NaMo is the only PM candidate from their party. Period.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 19:02

SS is keeping her powder dry by not associating herself with 'NaMo wave'. Perfect strategy to claim the top spot if there is a cry for 'secular' NDA govt.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 19:03

BhairavP wrote:^I'm sorry, but the BJP has categorically stated that NaMo is the only PM candidate from their party. Period.

Will they sit in opposition if Modi is not made PM?

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 02 May 2014 19:04

Mihaylo wrote: Guys, is there any chance that the BJP will make the government without Modi. Perhaps, maybe if the supporters demand such an arrangement.

-M

Full chance, judging by the attitude of SS. All the turd front leaders are dependent on minority votes. It is wrong to say Navin patnaik is not dependent on 15% Christian minority vote in Odisha. Muslims are the only thing that is preventing BSP from becoming a Jatav-Chamar party. Jaya has basically capitulated to the Church and islamists. So yes I see an NDA government most likely but Modi sarkaar might elude us. In that case I will forever lose interest in Indian politics and will become apathetic.[/quote]

If this happens. it will be a grave injustice to Modi and to India. He gets the vote on his track record and somebody else in the BJP gets to be the PM. People will lose faith in the BJP !!

-M

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 02 May 2014 19:06

Dilbu wrote:
BhairavP wrote:^I'm sorry, but the BJP has categorically stated that NaMo is the only PM candidate from their party. Period.
Will they sit in opposition if Modi is not made PM?

I think if Modi is not made PM, BJP will lose the trust of its voters who have voted mostly for Modi and not BJP. It is difficult to regain a lost trust.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 May 2014 19:06

Dilbu wrote:SS is keeping her powder dry by not associating herself with 'NaMo wave'. Perfect strategy to claim the top spot if there is a cry for 'secular' NDA govt.

..and list who all would cry for that?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 19:08

All this speculation of SS/RNS is unfounded. Modi is no saint. He has the ability to break BJP and create a faction if he is not given the PM post. He is not a fool to slog so much and gift the post to his sworn enemies.

Tony sir, I have too much info on Orissa, so please dont misguide this forum. Orissa has no where near the x-tian pop you state (it is at best 2-3%). The state has a working anti conversion law and despite all the sound bytes, there is enough sarkari support to rss/vhp groups to keep EJ's under control. If you want to spread a fake number to prove your point that buddhism can stop ej's and hinduism cannot, then you i suggest that u search for a different audience.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 May 2014 19:08

satya wrote:In Nation's best interest : BJP 'must' on its own go above 183 & Congress must go below 140 .Rest is maya .

This is guaranteed for 2014.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 19:10

SaiK wrote:
Dilbu wrote:SS is keeping her powder dry by not associating herself with 'NaMo wave'. Perfect strategy to claim the top spot if there is a cry for 'secular' NDA govt.
..and list who all would cry for that?

JJ,TMC, Navin etc. This is applicable only in the scenario where NDA falls short of numbers and need external allies.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 19:16

Apologies for quoting my own post that too in the next post

pankajs wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/breakingnews.html
-For last 5 months, they couldn't find a judge to probe Snoopgate, now in desperation they want to fill that position hastily.

wrt all the dhoti shiver going on in this thread, I would like to highlight the above from BJP presser. Why the sudden action on snoopgate after inaction over the last 5 months? That too changing the terms of reference of the inquiry committee?

Seems to me after every round of polling many such sudden mover being made the latest being on snoopgate, the lokpal and information commissioners. Somehow the CON move reeks of desperation and leads me to believe that each round of polling has delivered decisive blow to CON's plans to stop BJP and Modi. Reading a lot into the moves, I think CON has decided Modi rise to the office has become unstoppable based on the polls held till date. So they are trying to leave one parting gift a noose around his neck hoping to use it to pull him down in near future. This is also in line with what Modi and Amit Shah have themselves stated. Me thinks CON estimation is that pre-poll NDA will cross 272 when all the votes are counted. Again, I agree am Reading a lot in the CON moves.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 May 2014 19:18

Muraliravi/Muppalajis

If SS does any stupid thing it will have Nadendla Bhaskararao affect?

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 May 2014 19:24

Worse scenario is current Delhi assembly like situation i.e. getting to be a single largest party and still not be able to form the government; that is why I say that our ****** up system has failed for it can be gamed very easily by those who do not want someone who has fallen short by a small margin to be in charge , democracy be dammned. First thing which should happen is piece of rag be amended and some sense of practicality be drilled into it i.e. single largest party gets to choose the PM rest have to support; should they choose to instead go for re-elections in case of successive hung parliaments single largest party gets to decide who the PM is rest need to sck up for that is what true democracy is; even in a small group of people even a single additional vote counts towards majority , the hot air concepts like absolute/simple majority is just BS and a brain child of arm chair jokers.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 May 2014 19:24

Dilbu wrote:This is applicable only in the scenario where NDA falls short of numbers and need external allies.

arrey! beleive in your jinx mantra-tantra!

--

on SS, take an interview wide open to public.. and make her commit to the decision right away!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 19:25

muraliravi wrote:All this speculation of SS/RNS is unfounded. Modi is no saint. He has the ability to break BJP and create a faction if he is not given the PM post. He is not a fool to slog so much and gift the post to his sworn enemies.

Tony sir, I have too much info on Orissa, so please dont misguide this forum. Orissa has no where near the x-tian pop you state (it is at best 2-3%). The state has a working anti conversion law and despite all the sound bytes, there is enough sarkari support to rss/vhp groups to keep EJ's under control. If you want to spread a fake number to prove your point that buddhism can stop ej's and hinduism cannot, then you i suggest that u search for a different audience.

To add to the above,

Who was responsible for Modis elevation? > Party cadres
Who are the public electing an MP or a PM? > Modi specifically
Who will most of the MPs be beholden to for their victory? > Modi again

Think saars can the MPs who credit Modi for victory, the public who voted for Modi and the party cadres who pushed for is elevation agree to a replacement? Not without Modi's personal intervention. If Modi leaves he will leave with most of the MPs, most of the cadres and most of the votes. BJP that will remain behind will be a shell. I don't think that will be allowed to happen not withstanding a couple of sulking insiders.

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 02 May 2014 19:29

pankajs wrote: Think saars can the MPs who credit Modi for victory, the public who voted for Modi and the party carders who pushed for the elevation of Modi agree to a replacement? Not without Modi's personal intervention. If Modi leaves he will leave with most of the MPs, most of the carders and most of the voters. BJP that will remain behind will be a shell. I don't think that will be allowed to happen not withstanding a couple of sulking insiders.

However, going by Modi's RSS background he will bow down to the wishes of the party. He has repeated several times that he is doing what his party has asked him to do.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 02 May 2014 19:34

Sushma Swaraj is not very well (in terms of health).. cannot reveal more.. But too much of D4 theories going around.. not negating the delhi-lobby.. but such lobbies exist in all organizations. Beyond a point, they do not cause much trouble. Just see how everyone fell in line, once directive was issued from organization.

I am assured from on that front, now..

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 19:35

^^
Sure
And the party, behind the scene, will bow to the wishes of the man who has the cadre support, has singly driven the campaign and brings in most of the funding.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 May 2014 19:38

I see a company of five - Sushma Swaraj, LK Advani, Shatrughan Sinha, Varun Gandhi and Maneka Gandhi, perhaps Murli Manohar Joshi, who would be more than willing to play a different game and that too quite openly.

These may have more hangers-on, especially from MP and a few from UP.

So I hope NaMo has a buffer of 15 extra MPs.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 02 May 2014 19:39

RSS would not agree to non-Modi PM. Modi outreach has primed him well to come back post-third-front failure.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 19:39

If Modi can come all the way from Gujarat despite opposition, enter the polls, become PM candidate and win it for BJP then I guess this is a small obstacle for him. NaMo will lose onlee.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 02 May 2014 19:40

RajeshA wrote:I see a company of five - Sushma Swaraj, LK Advani, Shatrughan Sinha, Varun Gandhi and Maneka Gandhi, perhaps Murli Manohar Joshi, who would be more than willing to play a different game and that too quite openly.

These may have more hangers-on, especially from MP and a few from UP.

So I hope NaMo has a buffer of 15 extra MPs.

There are several allies who will not support anyone other than Modi. All this is non-starter. Modi is the next PM. period.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 May 2014 19:42

Modi will engage them positively.. remember if people are the problems, they are the solution too. just have to trigger their right brains, and get the underpinnings left with modi.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 02 May 2014 19:46

Dilbu wrote:Okay I am making my prediction. 210 for BJP.

But Modi will still lose onlee right?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 May 2014 19:48

What if on May 16th Modi has 'Arjuna'itis' and gives an emotional speech in which he says "Advani Ji ke ungli pakad ke mein yaha tak pahoocha. Unse badaa kabhi nahee ho sakta main. Advani Ji ko Pradhan Mantri Pad par pehla haq hai". And then he gives it all to Advani till 2017 or something. What happens then?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 19:51

No such thing is going to happen. Modi knows there is too much work to be done and no time for sentiments. If he is committed to getting Advaniji's name into the record books he may make him the president of India in the next round.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 May 2014 19:58

Muppalla wrote:
RajeshA wrote:I see a company of five - Sushma Swaraj, LK Advani, Shatrughan Sinha, Varun Gandhi and Maneka Gandhi, perhaps Murli Manohar Joshi, who would be more than willing to play a different game and that too quite openly.

These may have more hangers-on, especially from MP and a few from UP.

So I hope NaMo has a buffer of 15 extra MPs.
There are several allies who will not support anyone other than Modi. All this is non-starter. Modi is the next PM. period.

The scenario I was referring to is one where NaMo's govt has a small majority and there is a no-confidence motion in Lok Sabha due to some "divisive" issue.

In that case, there may be some BJP MPs willing to let Modi govt. fall, in case they are offered an alternative govt option under a secular banner. Some other allies too may not offer support in such a case - LJP, RPI(A), and may again flip sides.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 20:02

RajeshA wrote:
The scenario I was referring to is one where NaMo's govt has a small majority and there is a no-confidence motion in Lok Sabha due to some "divisive" issue.

In that case, there may be some BJP MPs willing to let Modi govt. fall, in case they are offered an alternative govt option under a secular banner. Some other allies too may not offer support in such a case - LJP, RPI(A), and may again flip sides.

Sir, and what makes you think that Modi is a saint and does not have his own group of MP's who will resign en masse with him if this happens. No one will give us kursi that easily in politics especially after toiling so hard. Watch Arun Shourie Interview (its recent, forgot which channel), where he was asked this question. His answer was blunt: Do you think Modi who has toiled so hard is a saint/fool that he will not have his jacks and give the throne to someone else.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 May 2014 20:25

Atri wrote:Sushma Swaraj is not very well (in terms of health).. cannot reveal more.. But too much of D4 theories going around.. not negating the delhi-lobby.. but such lobbies exist in all organizations. Beyond a point, they do not cause much trouble. Just see how everyone fell in line, once directive was issued from organization.

I am assured from on that front, now..

Sadhu Ari ji; people should just listen to you.

-- I must say people do not understand BJP and Sangh if they talk about BJP breaking or issues such as other candidates for PM post. And that too from people like Shotgun Sinha -- who is barely a step removed from Sidhu.

If the worst really comes (not likely) BJP will sit out, under Modi, that is about all. But wont happen.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 20:32

Zee News ‏@ZeeNews 3h

BJP will push for CBI inquiry into Saradha Scam: Anand Kumar http://zeenews.india.com/news/general-e ... 29169.html …

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 02 May 2014 20:40

sivab wrote:
Anantha wrote:
SwamyG
Who owns nakeeran, It gives the fewest seats to BJP
Nakeeran is pro-DMK

The only reason for existence of NAKEERAN is their fanatic Pro-DMK support & nasty Anti-(any Anti-DMK entity) propaganda - otherwise its one of the worst Tamil political magazine to waste your few Indian Rupees on. As per them - in no election would DMK fail to get the first place.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 20:46

Kumar Rakesh ‏@kumar_1402 1h

According to its internal assessment, BJP thinks the worst scenario for it will be 220 seats and the best for Cong 75-80.

He is a neutral journalist. Note 220 is worst case scenario and 80 is best.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 May 2014 20:47

Rupa Subramanya seems to be quite Pro Modi and against the dynasty. Why was she being labelled a sepoy? She looks to be on the right evolutionary Dharmic path.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 02 May 2014 20:54

harbans wrote:Rupa Subramanya seems to be quite Pro Modi and against the dynasty. Why was she being labelled a sepoy? She looks to be on the right evolutionary Dharmic path.

I think she was more centrist than anything, flirting with Cong/AAP/RW. But people on right got riled at her comment about BJP using the term blitzkrieg will invite opponents to call Modi, Hitler. It was a fair comment, but they latched on to Hitler part. Some weird but dedicated BJP workers (purists) including a prof & MH BJP official, who refuse to take support from non-supporters when it is available. She also blocked quite a few of them on twitter. She may blow with the wind, but why fight with someone who is supporting.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2014 20:56

Harbans, Modi wont have Arjunitis as he has Krishnaitis. His job is to reestablish good governance. Tweet if you like.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 May 2014 21:05

Sivab many thanks for the informative perspective!
Ramana ji sincerely hope so. Indians have this very regular habit of getting this 'Arjunitis' just when things go their way. IG had it in 72, ABV had it too, Prithvi Raj Chauhan, JLN was born and lived with it, MKG had it and so on many examples are littered in Indian history. It's no wonder Krishna had to give/ explained the message that this 'Arjunitis' is nothing but cowardice and Adharma and will fetch nothing but misery. But looks people quote BG for all the wrong reasons.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2014 21:40

sivab wrote:
Kumar Rakesh ‏@kumar_1402 1h

According to its internal assessment, BJP thinks the worst scenario for it will be 220 seats and the best for Cong 75-80.
He is a neutral journalist. Note 220 is worst case scenario and 80 is best.

Must be wrong info. Cong can easily get to 100, probably more. Look at muraliravi's numbers. It has too much of a presence across the country especially in areas where BJP has no local strength. BJP won't make a serious assessment like that.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 02 May 2014 21:45

MediaWatcher ‏@India_MSM 22m
Per sources plan to rig EVMs in full swing .EVM rigging is last hope of congress.. will BJP able to prevent it

The dude says rigging will be done through district collectors.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 May 2014 21:46

muraliravi wrote:
RajeshA wrote:
The scenario I was referring to is one where NaMo's govt has a small majority and there is a no-confidence motion in Lok Sabha due to some "divisive" issue.

In that case, there may be some BJP MPs willing to let Modi govt. fall, in case they are offered an alternative govt option under a secular banner. Some other allies too may not offer support in such a case - LJP, RPI(A), and may again flip sides.
Sir, and what makes you think that Modi is a saint and does not have his own group of MP's who will resign en masse with him if this happens. No one will give us kursi that easily in politics especially after toiling so hard. Watch Arun Shourie Interview (its recent, forgot which channel), where he was asked this question. His answer was blunt: Do you think Modi who has toiled so hard is a saint/fool that he will not have his jacks and give the throne to someone else.

Perhaps I wasn't that clear. The scenario did not anticipate Modi to be conceding power to somebody else willingly.

I am speaking of a case where Modi has to prove his majority and a section of BJP MPs vote with the opposition. Normally this would not be the case, but considering that the opposition and their pals around the world want to challenge Modi during his administration, a situation may be created where "secular" passions are running high.

I don't want Modi's govt to fall in a time of crisis, simply because some BJP MPs and a few allies suddenly discover their "secular" bone!

So my wish remains of Modi forming a govt. with a comfortable majority.