Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 03 May 2014 21:51

SaraLax wrote:
Hmm ... This would mean around 11-12 seats for NDA in TN and NDA coming 2nd after ADMK.

Absolutely and will be beyond my wildest dreams. It would also explain Amma going hammer and tongs on Modi. We will see...

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 03 May 2014 21:52

pankajs wrote:
SwamyG wrote:So will the exit polls start hitting the air waves on the 12th, after the last polling booth closes? Preparation for celebration can start after the 12th right?
Celebrate after 16th May wonlee ..

Saar I said preparation. I would have to probably take the day off on 16th after watching TV on the 15th night (in maasa). So have to "inform" work a couple of days earlier than 16th. Ensure wife has onions, potatoes, cheese, besan for pakodas; chips + salsa, sooji for kesari, soda, ice for drinks, ityadi. No?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 03 May 2014 21:53

SRoy wrote:
Rahul M wrote: not any longer. spoke to a mid level cpm karyakarta. he claims bjp was in fight for serampore, krishnanagar but won't make it due to rigging. huge rigging in last phase after tmc discovered they were facing uphill battle in ALL the seats that had gone to polls before that. TIFWIW.

claims EC special observer, rakesh something came to an understanding after much haggling. the price, 10 Cr.
WB was anyway not taken into consideration for NDA tally. But these (if won) 4-6 seats would have been of immense psychological value.

Krishnanagar is understood. Being a largely rural constituency and away from Kolkata. Can't say about serampore though. Has Bappi Lahiri complained? As in case of Hooghly Chandan Mitra has clearly done so.

Let's see how it goes for North Kolkata, Dum Dum and Barasat.

some other snippets :
> bjp would get 15-16% of total votes polled with 25-30% in some places
> disagrees with the simplistic assumption that muslims would jump tmc for left if MB joins NDA. he says bjp has decent muslim support including party workers and that simplistic assumption doesn't hold
> the thing he is most afraid of is tmc joining hands with bjp if NDA comes to power. "we (left) would be completely finished in WB by hook or crook if that happens"
> claims bjp is cutting into tmc vote more than left (I am not convinced)

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 May 2014 21:56

chaanakya wrote:Next Loksabha Election will be held in 2019, but there are Assembly elections before that. Anyhow, 2019 will be under entirely new set of commissioners. After 2015 , CEC appointed by UPA will be in Minority when New Govt appoints two ECs of its choice. That should be sufficient to keep him in check.

Just for bungling the voters list in Maharashtra and the sloppy security in WB, EC Commissioners would be forced to resign.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 03 May 2014 21:56

vivek.rao wrote:Lets tweet this info to Modi,AmitShah and Smritiji

Please do so. I am not on twitter unfortunately.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 03 May 2014 21:57

Moi so happy, Modi team reading BRF and accepting our suggestions. I was one of them BRFites to suggest that Modi give interviews to all vernacular channels but the MSM. I called it the "splitting of Media". It is going good, he is making piece meal of them onlee.

Modi's victory will be people's victory, as he has the knack to make every individual feel he has contributed to the World Changing event.

BTW, look at the people browsing this forum right now. Wow. BRF servers be ready from 12th through 17th. Another thread on results outside burkha forum would be good onlee.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 03 May 2014 21:59

Murugan wrote:In previous election of 2004 and 2009, how many %age voting in WB, any figures? Asking google chacha too but to no avail till this post

it's always around 80%, with or without rigging. it won't tell you anything.

the figure that one needs to look at is voting by time, if there's 65 % voting by 10, there's a problem.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 03 May 2014 22:01

SwamyG wrote: Saar I said preparation. I would have to probably take the day off on 16th after watching TV on the 15th night (in maasa). So have to "inform" work a couple of days earlier than 16th. Ensure wife has onions, potatoes, cheese, besan for pakodas; chips + salsa, sooji for kesari, soda, ice for drinks, ityadi. No?

I am still making my plans....whichever way the results come out, I will have a bottle of Scotch whiskey with a fine ~~cigar~~ Bhagoda brand beedi. It wont last long but it will give atleast 49 seconds of smoke-filled enjoyment.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 03 May 2014 22:02

RajeshA wrote:
chaanakya wrote:Next Loksabha Election will be held in 2019, but there are Assembly elections before that. Anyhow, 2019 will be under entirely new set of commissioners. After 2015 , CEC appointed by UPA will be in Minority when New Govt appoints two ECs of its choice. That should be sufficient to keep him in check.
Just for bungling the voters list in Maharashtra and the sloppy security in WB, EC Commissioners would be forced to resign.

I didn't want to be obvious. But it is the third Comm. who needs to be tackled. But yes , that issue could be raised more forcefully and put ECI on defensive at least. Removal procedure is fraught with unacceptable cost.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 03 May 2014 22:02

Dilbu wrote:
BhairavP wrote:^I'm sorry, but the BJP has categorically stated that NaMo is the only PM candidate from their party. Period.
Will they sit in opposition if Modi is not made PM?

If you have read the biography of RSS with emphasis on Shri Mohan Bhagwat, which was posted by Atri ji on NaMo thread, you would be very confident about this election being the last chance for BhaJaPa.

Susy auntie or Raj Nath Secular or anyone dreaming of becoming the PM to satisfy the demands of mainorities can only do that in ३D while they are in the stage 5 NREM sleep.

In case NaMo is taken out of the equation, the RSS will call the shot and appoint their own point man. AFAIU, it could be SSC. All others will be told to FO, graciously onlee.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 May 2014 22:08

vivek.rao wrote:
KLP Dubey wrote:Niran:

This is for you - please see if you can pass this information on the right people.

Just got a call from a very close family friend who is a landowner in village Pipri (google: 26.474305, 81.776028) in Amethi constituency. This is a "thakur-dominated" village (read: BJP support) with 6000-7000 voters. This village (and surrounding ones) are hard-hit by course changes of the Gomti river (loss of land, loss of road connectivity). Total government apathy, no action taken to stabilize the riverbanks in that area. Pappu is not interested.

According to my contact no BJP/RSS folks have showed up to listen to the villagers. Only Kumar Vishwas sent his father to campaign there. Even though anti-Pappu sentiment is high, at this point the entire village is planning to boycott the election altogether. It's late in the campaign but according to him it would still make a big difference to send some folks to the villages in this area and get people to vote. If more details/contact info needed, let me know.
Lets tweet this info to Modi,AmitShah and Smritiji

There is a specific Amethi BJP account on Twitter. Search for it and tweet there and copy to Smriti Irani Twitter account. Amit Shah and others for sure with follow up.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 May 2014 22:15

chaanakya wrote:Removal procedure is fraught with unacceptable cost.

Removal is all about accepting responsibility. Anyway any removal would be done post elections 2014, but hopefully before the next assembly elections in October - Haryana, Maharashtra, Bihar???.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 03 May 2014 22:17

SriKumar wrote:I am still making my plans....whichever way the results come out, I will have a bottle of Scotch whiskey with a fine ~~cigar~~ Bhagoda brand beedi. It wont last long but it will give atleast 49 seconds of smoke-filled enjoyment.

You mean 200+, or 250+ or 300+ ?

Just like position-69 in the annals of sexual commentary, position-49 will go down the annals of political commentary.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 03 May 2014 22:18

For that they have to start ratcheting up the ante immediately on 16th

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 03 May 2014 22:27

sivab wrote:
SaraLax wrote:
Hmm ... This would mean around 11-12 seats for NDA in TN and NDA coming 2nd after ADMK.
Absolutely and will be beyond my wildest dreams. It would also explain Amma going hammer and tongs on Modi. We will see...

Sort of rhymes with the post-poll news articles in Tamil Newspapers ... stating that some of the current TN state ministers & certain ADMK District Secretaries had admitted themselves in the local hospitals ... soon after election happened on April 24th and unexpected dismal news came out of the internal survey results obtained by collating data from ADMK polling booth committee members. Most of them got affected by sudden uneasiness, BP shooting up, palpitations and etc (particularly some ADMK MLAs & party leadership men from the Kongu region i.e Western TN). Seeing this procession of ministers & district secretaries getting admitted in local Hospitals for treatment - some other ministers with normal health started going for precautionary health check-ups at Hospitals. Seems AMMA lashed out strongly against many ministers & District secretaries - when the faithful lined up at Chennai airport to wish AMMA well on her recuperation-cum-rejuvenation stay related travel to Kodanadu Hills. One result of the dose given was that many of the medium level party secretaries in towns/cities & councilors of ADMK ... seemed to have returned back to the ADMK party office the money actually meant for "vote purchasing" but which they had slipped into their own pockets rather than distributing them. AMMA uses the state IB very thoroughly on her own Ministers & party men and punishments for these people are always delivered swiftly & strongly. I guess - we can see expect more blood letting in the line-up of Ministers & District Secretaries after results come in on May 16th ... more so if NDA plucks out seats from ADMK strong hold domains.

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 03 May 2014 22:33

If 5Forty3 prediction comes true even for Minimum seats for BJP, I will get take an unplanned leave and invite my Bhagwa brothers and for every 20 seats of NDA will bottoms up a beer or a large Patiala peg or both

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 May 2014 22:42

204 for BJP is a massive victory. I can bear 230 but will not be able to talk. I am only thinking if BJP passes 250 what will be my state? Unpredictable.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 03 May 2014 22:46

http://www.thehinducentre.com/the-arena ... 739722.ece

Must read for statistics lovers

You scroll down if you are interested in csds track record, he has nice tables

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 03 May 2014 22:46

Get those walkers ready, Muppalla Shreeman.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 May 2014 22:52

Muppalla wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:

This is for you - please see if you can pass this information on the right people.

Just got a call from a very close family friend who is a landowner in village Pipri (google: 26.474305, 81.776028) in Amethi constituency. .
Lets tweet this info to Modi,AmitShah and Smritiji

There is a specific Amethi BJP account on Twitter. Search for it and tweet there and copy to Smriti Irani Twitter account. Amit Shah and others for sure with follow up.

I can tweet it but what specific message should i pass on.

Added Later: Tweeted to Smriti Irani. Hope someone reads the message and works on it

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 03 May 2014 23:00

VikasRaina wrote:I can tweet it but what specific message should i pass on.

"Villages on Gomti banks hard hit by lack of action of SP and Congress in stabilizing course changes. At least one village (7000 voters) planning to boycott elections altogether despite anti-Rahul sentiment - would be loss of voters for BJP. Very weak BJP/RSS outreach in the area. Suggest strong coverage by party workers and BJP candidate."

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 May 2014 23:51

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 50m

By a Genset powered mike, Pinky talks of bringing electricity to Amethi! In Amethi Bahu makes Beti sweat! pic.twitter.com/4z7EfmOKYn

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 03 May 2014 23:55

bootiful strategy by congies muslims killed by NDFB in Assam to polarise the mullah votes in UP and Bihar to consolidate and vote against Bhajpa in UP and Bihar.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 03 May 2014 23:58

suryag wrote:bootiful strategy by congies muslims killed by NDFB in Assam to polarise the mullah votes in UP and Bihar to consolidate and vote against Bhajpa in UP and Bihar.

All these are bewakoof strategies as far as Muslim votes are concerned. Muslims will anyway a negligible number that will vote for BJP. No need for all these stuff.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 May 2014 00:04

Amit Shah ‏@AmitShahOffice 1h

बूथ कैप्चरिंग में शामिल UP सरकार http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/news/120021/12

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 00:18

The Lotus Goes White

In all the fuss about Narendra Modis famous "selfie", did anyone notice that the Lotus symbol he wears on his kurta has changed from saffron to white? Most BJP candidates have a white Lotus brooch pinned on their kurtas these days. When NewsX asked Anurag Thakur he explained that this was how the symbol appeared on the ballot papers, white with a black outline. Anurag also added significantly that white was a "colour of peace". So does this mean that the BJP is changing from aggressive saffron to a more peaceful white?

So the Christianization of BJP is going on in full swing, there is only one party in NDA that has the guts to ask BJP openly about this covert agenda and that is Shiv Sena. I hope they ask all these smart .... in bjp publicly "if white means peace, what does saffron mean??"

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 04 May 2014 00:21

^^^Our very own Rahul Mehta, the one running against Advani, asked the same thing some time back here on this forum. It is a valid question to ask.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 May 2014 00:22

The Lotus has been white for quite some time (relatively speaking on time). Calling it a Christianization is a major leap, if not outright ridiculous. So there are reams of articles and interviews showing Modi and his RSS roots. In all his recent interviews, he talks about RSS. RSS supports him. And then we cry over BJP becoming Christian.

Crying foul at the drop of a hat? What next RSS is controlled by the Vatican?

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 04 May 2014 00:25

Bhratas, they are using white lotus because that's how it looks on the ballot paper.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 May 2014 00:25

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Our very own Rahul Mehta, the one running against Advani, asked the same thing some time back here on this forum. It is a valid question to ask.

Mooh hain to kuch bi pooch lethe hain.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 May 2014 00:59

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... icking/99/

It’s hard to miss the white lotus on the famed chhappan inch ki chaati as BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addresses one rally after the other. The flower, strikingly different from the BJP’s official saffron-and-green lotus, made its debut on the lapel of Modi’s trademark half-sleeve kurtas on April 7, the day polling began for the 2014 general elections. “The white lotus is a replica of the lotus that appears on EVMs (electronic voting machines). It has a strategic purpose,” says a top Modi aide.

The idea, he explains, is that constant exposure to the quiet yet prominent logo will help it seep into the subconscious of the voters and they will go for it instinctively when they stand in front of an EVM on election day. This is subliminal advertising, the science of influencing consumers at a subconscious level, a relatively new domain of marketing.

This was in November 2013.
http://www.dehradunpost.com/bjp-removes ... us-symbol/

BJP has filed an application at the EC to change the colour of party Symbol. The change requested goes like this: A black and White Lotus picture with thick black lines. No saffron colour in the flower petals and no green colour in leaves.

http://www.ndtv.com/article/assembly-po ... ver-443096

The party had sought a makeover after it was felt that in its present form, the lotus was not properly visible to the voters in comparison to the symbols of other parties.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 04 May 2014 01:15

^^^Then why does Anurag Thakur say something else and claims white is the "color of peace"?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 04 May 2014 01:18

Muppalla wrote:204 for BJP is a massive victory. I can bear 230 but will not be able to talk. I am only thinking if BJP passes 250 what will be my state? Unpredictable.

You should invite couple of doctor friends for your 5/16 party Muppala garu.
BJP is going to get 272+ on its own.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 01:19

The lotus has been appearing in B&W on the EVM or Ballot Paper ever since BJP has been contesting in elections.

Moreover, even otherwise what they have done over the last few decades to the symbol is proof enough. It used to be pure saffron, then they shaded the background partly green, then changed the stem to green, now white and on other documents, white with background as 1/2 green and 1/2 yellow, next what full green?? This evm having B&W hence we are showing it like that is class 10 type explanation which no one will buy.

Anyway we will see after may 16th what mr. mohammed jesus modi does. He yells everywhere that he will deport bangladeshis, but there is no line in the BJP manifesto that mentions that. On top of that he has allied happily with paswan who in 2007 said bd's in india should be given citizenship. I understand political compulsions and the tactics to win, so I wont blame him now, but let us see if the secularized BJP which feels white is peace and saffron means something else has the guts to deport bangladeshis.

uh, i so miss Balasaheb, he would have taken on the secularized modi head on and threatened to withdraw support

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 01:20

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Then why does Anurag Thakur say something else and claims white is the "color of peace"?

Exactlee sir, why did he have to say that??

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 May 2014 01:23

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Then why does Anurag Thakur say something else and claims white is the "color of peace"?

Like Modi would say, ab jaakar Anurag se poochaye.

It is politics and in politics it is all maya. Why does BJP have some crooked people in its team? To win. No? Like that onlee saar.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 04 May 2014 01:27

muraliravi wrote: Anyway we will see after may 16th what mr. mohammed jesus modi does.

It is getting ridiculous. Like I said, Modi's biggest enemies are his supporters.

Let us get one thing straight, India is not going to become a Hindu Kingdom - anytime soon. It has to remain secular - treating all religions with respect or skepticism - keeping them away at an arm's distance for the actual functioning of government and betterment of its people. Keep the battlefield (conversion ground) even and fair, and the let people decide if they want to follow Mo, Jo or Mu.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 04 May 2014 01:30

SwamyG wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Anyway we will see after may 16th what mr. mohammed jesus modi does.
It is getting ridiculous. Like I said, Modi's biggest enemies are his supporters.

And i second you - Sir.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 01:35

SwamyG wrote:The Lotus has been white for quite some time (relatively speaking on time). Calling it a Christianization is a major leap, if not outright ridiculous. So there are reams of articles and interviews showing Modi and his RSS roots. In all his recent interviews, he talks about RSS. RSS supports him. And then we cry over BJP becoming Christian.

Crying foul at the drop of a hat? What next RSS is controlled by the Vatican?

Hmm, nothing wrong in being suspect about a party which has time and again fooled hindus. RSS has seen the damage antonio maino has done over 10 years and decided to go full throttle to support modi, that does not mean they trust he will do everything they need. Well, the truth is BJP has actually fooled RSS. Speeches mean nothing, what matters is the manifesto.

So how has BJP fooled RSS and Hindus in their manifesto

Illegal Immigration

1998 BJP Manifesto:

1.Take more stringent measures to intercept illegal infiltrators and turn them back. Fencing of the border wherever possible will be urgently taken up. Border patrolling will be intensified;
2. Initiate steps to detect illegal infiltrators and delete their names from electoral rolls

2014 BJP Manifesto: Blank on this subject except lip service about fencing and patrolling.

Why on earth are they not committing to deporting them if Modi can yell at them in his rallies.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 04 May 2014 01:35

http://epaper.dinamalar.com/PUBLICATION ... tml?Mode=1

Hilarious story. Rough Translation:

Coimbatore BJP candidate CP Radhakrishnan was going around booth to booth on election day. When he went to Vellakinaru booth, a Punjabi BJP booth worker was asking everyone to vote for Lotus, Lotus. He did the same to CPR. Someone then told him that CPR is the candidate. The guy then gave handshake to CPR and told him that Modi will be next PM and CPR will win. CPR learnt that the person is on a business visit to Coimbatore and was canvassing in his free time. CPR who was tired became very enthusiastic and went to next booth.

Here is the Punjabi person referred to above

https://twitter.com/HerrBains/with_replies

His opinion on this seat

R.S. Bains @HerrBains · May 2

@vijaymenon79 Chances are good.