Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 13:55

muraliravi wrote: I am a stats guy and used to maintain the border fencing data for BR. So I pretty much have a good feel to what zilch they did from 98-2004 on that issue. the answer is squat.

You seem to be selectively against BJP due to some personal issues. Due to some weird reasons also you stick to your ridiculous seat predictions defying all ground reports. Don't know what's your beef with BJP, but your complaint on border management is based not based on ground facts

On the topic, all Bengali posters in this forum time and again have posted certain facts regarding the entire border management and infiltration handling issue.
1. It is the compromised BSF that facilitates infiltration.
2. 98-2004, deporting exercise was done in a wrong manner i.e. Indian Bengali Muslims rounded up. As stated numerous times, please involve or delegate it to native Bengali officials (draw them from central services, armed forces if you like) for identification exercise.
3. Maintaining "border fencing data for BR" is hot air to say the least. Have been to BD border along WB? Too many issues. Posts getting washed away in monsoons, entire villages and their agriculture lands /pastures on either side.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 May 2014 14:14

krishnan wrote:another stupid EC rule, you are not allowed to show your party symbol, but its shown in EVM, EC violating its own rule ???

As long as it forms part of your identity, even political, it should be allowed, that is a symbol that is body art, wearable, fashion accessory or pocketable, should be allowed. However I think it should be restricted to only those who hold some political office - in a political party or a state function.

For otherwise I can well imagine some party goondas forcing people to wear some symbol of their party when they go out to vote, thus skewing public opinion.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 04 May 2014 14:35

krishnan wrote:another stupid EC rule, you are not allowed to show your party symbol, but its shown in EVM, EC violating its own rule ???

If symbols are not shown on EVM , how do you know which button to press?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 04 May 2014 14:48

So now NaMo has directly attacked ECI. Also asked if they don't like comments, they can file another FIR. NaMo speaking at Bankura WB. Looks like , after 16th their days are numbered.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 04 May 2014 14:53

EC failed to stop rigging and violence in Bengal, Bihar, UP: Modi

Accusing Election Commission of inaction, BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi on Sunday said the poll panel failed to check violence and rigging during elections in West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

"I am putting serious allegations against you (EC). You have failed to stop rigging and violence in these areas. False cases have been filed against our candidate Babul Supriyo. Election Commission's work is to protect people. I request you to fulfil your responsibilities in the right way," Modi told an election rally here in support of Supriyo, the party candidate from Asansol seat.

The poll watchdog, he said, has all the government machinery at its disposal and more powers than even the Prime Minister.

"Then why are you not acting? It is your responsbility to ensure impartial polls. I am making very serious allegations," Modi said.

"Democracy doesn't work like this, I know that in the elections on May 30 (sic) how much rigging took place. Will this game go on?"

Modi recalled that he had said in Uttar Pradesh too that in some areas problems relating to the polls would take place.

"But Election Commission could do nothing. Today I am saying it again. Is it not the responsiblity of the Election Commission that elections should be peaceful?" he questioned.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 04 May 2014 14:55

@SRoy, he wont make an obvious mistake like that. he spoke on the assumption that this rigging mode would continue and affect krishnanagar, the stretched out schedule certainly gives tmc enough opportunity to plan it in detail. confusion comes from how I phrased the sentence.

btw, rss has significant presence in chinsurah and chandan-nagar, both of which come under hooghly. may be chandan mitra didn't stand a chance but he did report massive rigging from dhanekhali.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 04 May 2014 15:22

Can they go to the court with evidence and stall the result and ask for repoll?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 May 2014 15:29

-- posted above --

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 04 May 2014 15:29

yes, and they should.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 04 May 2014 16:23

@SRoy, what's the ground in WB? Will BJP get 4/42? What's your take based on latest?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 May 2014 17:20

Dhaval Patel ‏@dhaval241086 1h
Guj 24,Raj 23 ,MP 26,Mah 19,UP 45,Bihar 25,Kar 14,Delhi 7,Punjab 2,UK 5, HP 2,Assam 7,TN 3,CG 10,JHK 10,AP 5,J&K 2, UT 4,Har 5,WB 3,Orrisa 5

That is 246 seats for BJP.

I would say a few more in UP (+8) are possible, and may be a couple more in Karnataka (+2). Also I am hopeful of 2 in Arunachal Pradesh and 2 in Manipur. May be in HP (+1), 1 more would be possible. In Kerala (+1), TVM may still be in the running. In Punjab (+1), BJP may not lose any. - around 17 more.

Pity some seats are being lost in RJ, MP and GJ - altogether 7.

So I am expecting between 246 and 263 seats for BJP.

I do hope that Bhagwant Mann, the single probable AAP MP in 16th Lok Sabha joins BJP.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 04 May 2014 17:27

RajeshA wrote:That is 246 seats for BJP.

UP and Bihar together should be in the range of 80-100 seats, not 70.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 May 2014 17:43

What of the suggestion that we were concerned about 48hrs ago that Bihar may not deliver as many as we hope ?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 04 May 2014 17:47

Sanjay wrote:What of the suggestion that we were concerned about 48hrs ago that Bihar may not deliver as many as we hope ?

Well, it's a suggestion.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 04 May 2014 18:08

Well, it's a suggestion.

[/quote]

Yup it is. The question is - is it likely or not ?

negi · Post by **negi** » 04 May 2014 18:17

Ye sala burbaks in media are suddenly trying to make Nitish some kind of a bihar ka beta who gave them 12% annual growth; idiots have forgotten that all this time Nikkama was running a government with BJP.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 18:18

Muppalla wrote:@SRoy, what's the ground in WB? Will BJP get 4/42? What's your take based on latest?

This will be a bit longish post, so bear with me.
If voter enthusiasm and support were to convert to seat, then at the very outset let me state that the probable number of BJP wins would (or rather say would have) be 9 to 10, not just 4. IIRC Rajnath Singh et. al. were talking of similar numbers.

If the stated 4 seats were based on earlier intelligence report to WB govt., then perhaps MB and her cohorts are living in a lala land. A lot have happened since the polls opened up, so the probable numbers are higher. Rigging in Hooghly and Serampore could be due to the fact that they were in list of the original 4.
CPI(M) campaigning has picked up.
One severe lacunae is the quality of local BJP leadership. They seem to totally disconnected with local issues and masses.
The place were I live is an upper middle class locality, 100% Hindu, 0% M, 0% BD. So, here talks about lack of jobs or BD issues are nice to hear, but not something that affects anyone personally. But in this place there is also a committed BJP vote bank. So it depends. The commie workers here have started talking of TMC goondaism etc., and has takers, naturally because it effects us once we step out of our homes. So, it depends whether the local BJP is feeding NaMo with the pulse on ground or not, plus being 100% urban constituency depends on voter turnout also. These trends apply to Kolkata North, Dum Dum and Barasat, where BJP has very good chance.

So to answer the question 4 or maybe 6 is definitely reachable, but lets be realistic. We should celebrate if BJP in these places comes second within narrow margins. This is what commie workers are already admitting, so lets keep our fingers crossed.

sum · Post by **sum** » 04 May 2014 18:29

The commie workers here have started talking of TMC goondaism etc., and has takers, naturally because it effects us once we step out of our homes. So, it depends whether the local BJP is feeding NaMo with the pulse on ground or not, plus being 100% urban constituency depends on voter turnout also.

Saar, you are correct but isnt this a law and order perview under state?

If educated folks also dont care about jobs/state of country while voting for a MP and only care about how their locality/law&order is doing ( which should ideally be done during MLA elections), how can any national vote seeking party( which doesnt have MLA level presence) win there?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 18:30

Hari Seldon wrote:Let the dhoti shiver begin... in the psec camp....

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nare ... 58903.html

Hari sir,

Modi said the same thing before may 2009 in a interview and we know the result

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 18:42

sum wrote:Saar, you are correct but isnt this a law and order perview under state?

If educated folks also dont care about jobs/state of country while voting for a MP and only care about how their locality/law&order is doing ( which should ideally be done during MLA elections), how can any national vote seeking party( which doesnt have MLA level presence) win there?

sumji,
If these were true then we wouldn't have a situation of regional parties sitting in the parliament.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 04 May 2014 18:46

Sanjay wrote:Well, it's a suggestion.

Yup it is. The question is - is it likely or not ?[/quote]

And it will remain just that. A still-born suggestion.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 May 2014 18:49

Can you guys look at this spreadsheet (Prediction of seat by seat for Phases 1-7) and comment?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZ ... view?pli=1

Till now NDA - 206, UPA - 94, Close - 43

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 04 May 2014 18:50

SRoy wrote:
muraliravi wrote: I am a stats guy and used to maintain the border fencing data for BR. So I pretty much have a good feel to what zilch they did from 98-2004 on that issue. the answer is squat.
You seem to be selectively against BJP due to some personal issues. Due to some weird reasons also you stick to your ridiculous seat predictions defying all ground reports. Don't know what's your beef with BJP, but your complaint on border management is based not based on ground facts

On the topic, all Bengali posters in this forum time and again have posted certain facts regarding the entire border management and infiltration handling issue.
1. It is the compromised BSF that facilitates infiltration.
2. 98-2004, deporting exercise was done in a wrong manner i.e. Indian Bengali Muslims rounded up. As stated numerous times, please involve or delegate it to native Bengali officials (draw them from central services, armed forces if you like) for identification exercise.
3. Maintaining "border fencing data for BR" is hot air to say the least. Have been to BD border along WB? Too many issues. Posts getting washed away in monsoons, entire villages and their agriculture lands /pastures on either side.

Yah, I am prejudiced against the BJP and yet flew all the way to vote for BJP in a seat where they have zero chance.

Yah ground reports say BJP will win 400 seats, keep believing in that. every election these ground reports of yours seem to be way ahead of actual results and yet you want to believe that, what can i do. We will meet again on may 16. I again repeat, BJP on its own will not cross 210 seats in the wildest of its dreams. Cong will not get less than 100 seats whatever happens.

I dont want to retort to your stupid logic on deporting BD's, fencing work was zilch when they were in power.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 04 May 2014 18:52

agree on congi seats, they probably wont get more than 80-90

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 19:22

muraliravi wrote:I dont want to retort to your stupid logic on deporting BD's, fencing work was zilch when they were in power.

It may suffice to point it to you, that the manner in which BD identification was done, if repeated on a larger scale will alienate a lot of genuine Indian citizens, including Hindus.

On border fencing, sure lets blame it on a govt. that was only in power for 5 years, overlooking the fact that it is the responsibility of the central govt. irrespective of the party in power. Similar to the BD identification issue, on the fencing part, your post shows you know nothing or willing to consider obstacles about the terrain, population and land pattern in WB and Assam.

And you voting for BJP means nothing, a lot of people are doing that this time and they'll go back to Cong., the moment any of the Hindutva issues are uttered by Modi.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 May 2014 19:27

Guys! Stop fighting on Election projections.

We all have hopes,estimates. The ground situation is different with a lot of factors: caste,religion,EC,rigging,removing votes.

We had our disappointment in 2009. But lets not make it personal.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 May 2014 19:28

No blue on blue. ramana

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 19:31

Nobody is making it personal.

But I would be concerned if the party I'm voting for is forced to make uninformed statement on issues without consulting local population. Such statements make the party look stupid and people like me and I are left with no political alternative.

BD infiltration issues in one such topic, where blanket statements will immense harm.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 04 May 2014 19:32

SRoy wrote: a lot of people are doing that this time and they'll go back to Cong., the moment any of the Hindutva issues are uttered by Modi.

This I feel is quite true, the wave is a vote for change as people are fed up with the current government not delivering, interpreting it as a hindutva wave is erroneous logic, that concept died with the 2004 elections. It will be for the better if BJP transforms into a secular party and deliver on good governance to make it win each election for the foreseeable future and the larger good of India. All other issues are sidebar to the goals that average Indians care about.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 19:37

^^

Exactly, the Hindutva topics will come up as and when the aam junta see value in it.
A political dispensation cannot thrust it upon an unwilling populace.
The only thing Modi can and must do is to provide a level playing field for RSS and larger Sangh Parivar, stop means of funding to Mullahs and EJ's and come hard on radical elements with so called minorities, be even handed.

Everything will fall into place.

satya · Post by **satya** » 04 May 2014 19:52

vivek.rao wrote:Can you guys look at this spreadsheet (Prediction of seat by seat for Phases 1-7) and comment?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZ ... view?pli=1

Till now NDA - 206, UPA - 94, Close - 43

Vivek

gr8 work .

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 04 May 2014 19:56

http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections ... 15274.aspx

EC sends 15,000 additional central paramilitary troops to WB for next phase of polling. As posted in this thread, last phase was marked by a several lack of troops and heavy rigging.

The whole article is very fishy.

EC is adamant that there was no problem last time and there will be no re-polling anywhere. If that is the case, why the heavy additional troop presence now?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 May 2014 19:57

1. My father used to tell me how dangerous BJP is and will create a lot of religious conflict. It took him 10 years to realize the game being played by CONs,minorities and media.

2. Many people have not realized it fully but have some idea of it. The express doubts on Modi but say they are supporting him now because of weak leadership and PAPPU.

3. So the goal of MSM is to communalize every word Modi/cabinet says/does and keep projecting as Fascist takeover of India.

4. There is so much brainless Hindu segment which thinks secularism means Killing Hindus by Muslims is not an issue because we are majority. These stupid people get scared as soon as word communal Hindu is uttered and will even support Mushaff as PM.

5. Many Hindus are not even bothered as they have to vote for their caste man regardless. Country can go to dogs.

6. It is the first time in the History of India that Modi has been able make several people raise above their caste to vote for BJP.

7. It takes time,patience and strategy to make this a strong commitment

I will be happy with Modi with following things this term

1. Focus on Development (infrastructure,manufacturing)
2. No appeasement and treat all people equally. Let people understand the meaning of real secularism
3. Free up temples from Govt.
4. Build institutions that can withstand Sonias of the future

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 04 May 2014 20:00

If avg people don't care about Hindhuthva/ideology, then whats the problem if there is pro-Hindhuthva policies? Is it being suggested that people will vote against the party if it tries to implement pro-Hindhuthva policies? But, this is against the suggestion that people don't care for ideologies? So, is it being suggested that people actually are against Hindhuthva and are voting to BJP despite that? I think people are projecting their own bias on to the voting masses. People in riot hit areas know exactly what they are voting for. People who are having trouble with increasing non-Hindhu religions know exactly what they are voting for. People who see mosques and churces sprouting all over the place know exactly what they are voting for. People who see illegal immigration being unpunished(or even facilitated) know exactly what they are voting for.

Anyway, this theme keeps repeating again and again: Hindhuthva will hinder development. Someone please explain to me, exactly how Hindhuthva policies will hinder development policies. If Hindhuthva policies don't hinder development, then why create this fake choice that people have to choose between hindhuthva or development?

BJP's ideology is Hindhuthva. It has talked about development. If people elect BJP, then it means people are buying Hindhuthva + development.(not just development and not just hindhuthva but Hindhuthva + development).

----
Bade,
what exactly is hindhuthva according to you?
how are you concluding that people are not voting for Hindhuthva?
how do you know that people will turn against if Hindhuthva policies are followed?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 04 May 2014 20:01

satya wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:Can you guys look at this spreadsheet (Prediction of seat by seat for Phases 1-7) and comment?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZ ... view?pli=1

Till now NDA - 206, UPA - 94, Close - 43
Vivek

gr8 work .

Not my work

Found it on twitter

I would like comments from other people like muraliravi,Muppalla on this list

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 04 May 2014 20:08

Shaktimaan wrote:http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections ... 15274.aspx

EC sends 15,000 additional central paramilitary troops to WB for next phase of polling. As posted in this thread, last phase was marked by a several lack of troops and heavy rigging.

The whole article is very fishy.

EC is adamant that there was no problem last time and there will be no re-polling anywhere. If that is the case, why the heavy additional troop presence now?

They will not admit so easily, maybe some more pressure will do. The corrective steps itself is an admission that there were gaps in the last phase.

Modi has pointed out the ECI's biased attitude and they seem to have gotten the message.

Without naming the constituencies, it is worthwhile to note that in the last phase only one constituency was of BJP's interest. A repoll is useful if one wishes to recover that.
However, without pushing the ECI in corner (for a re-poll), if NaMo and team are able to pressurize the ECI to make the next phases a more level playing field with the backdrop of ECI already under suspicion then I think NaMo and team has played a masterstroke.

As I posted earlier, it is the commies that have been hit hard the most by the rigging.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 04 May 2014 20:11

Bade wrote:It will be for the better if BJP transforms into a secular party and deliver on good governance to make it win each election for the foreseeable future and the larger good of India. All other issues are sidebar to the goals that average Indians care about.

Another one who has drunk the secular cool aid!

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 04 May 2014 20:14

johneeG wrote: Bade,
what exactly is hindhuthva according to you?
how are you concluding that people are not voting for Hindhuthva?
how do you know that people will turn against if Hindhuthva policies are followed?

1) I need not answer that as it does not matter what I think it is.
2) If people had voted for Hindutva alone, then BJP should have won the previous two elections irrespective of development concerns. But they did not, why ?
3) Frankly, I do not know if they will turn against Hindutva, if development is delivered above expectations by a BJP govt. On the other hand if that does not happen and only the Hindutva card is used and talked about, then winning consecutive elections becomes a problem.

Of course, we will have to go through a few election cycles to know the truth, till then it is just speculation and I will grant you that.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 04 May 2014 20:16

merlin wrote:
Bade wrote:It will be for the better if BJP transforms into a secular party and deliver on good governance to make it win each election for the foreseeable future and the larger good of India. All other issues are sidebar to the goals that average Indians care about.
Another one who has drunk the secular cool aid!

and lost two elections in a row.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 04 May 2014 20:21

Bade wrote:
merlin wrote: Another one who has drunk the secular cool aid!
and lost two elections in a row.

BJP delivered good governance (to a decent level, at least) in 1998-2004. So why did they lose 2004 elections? Hindutva was absent in 2004, and by 2009, it was so compromised that it was a joke. What Hindutva did you see in 2009?