AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

[vivek.rao]

I spoke few people who came from AP. I heard it very differently. It does not match with what we are hoping here.

The feeling there is it will be Jagan all the way. Will be very sad.

[Muppalla]

I spoke few people who came from AP. I heard it very differently. It does not match with what we are hoping here.

The feeling there is it will be Jagan all the way. Will be very sad.

In another 24 hours we will see exit polls. AP has very divided elite. As we discussed here several times, the crowd that says "I hate kammas" is rampantly existent and that says "I hate Reddys" or "I hate xxxx" are non-existent. TDP is party by Kammas and YSRC is party by Reddys irrespective of how many others are in these parties.

So "feelings/expectations" will be on those lines when you talk to someone because the folks always move in those circles and their interactions are always in such and such circles only. Unfortunately for the AP, the Reddys leadership is forcefully taken over by YSR gangs whose agenda is destructive and a lot who are virulently "I hate kammas" mindset will give you a assessment of Jagan is winning.

The elections are always close every time after 1989 even when NTR was leading TDP. So a small swing is all needed between win and loss. In this election the +ve swing is with TDP and hence the chances of TDP winning are high. We will know in 24hrs anyway. The babudom, the administration is getting ready for CBN as they believe that he is on his way to form the government.

[vivek.rao]

^^ Hope you are right Muppllaji

I pray every day for NaMo at the center and no Jagan in AP. Never prayed or wished any thing for myself in my life.

The brahmins from AP have so much anger against Naidu/Kammas not sure why! The know Jagan is corrupt and curse him. They know about conversion factories but they secretly wish Naidu is crushed. Hard to understand all the undercurrents.

Looks like there is not much Modi swing at all. What explains that? Is AP doomed with idiots who can't raise beyond I hate Kammas and we want all free.

[ShyamSP]

YSRC wins, as they claim, only if they get 100% INC+PRP from 2009. All other scenarios maximum they get is 10 MP seats and worse 4 MP seats considering past elections and non-politically-correct demographics data. If Kapus voted for TDP more and INC still get to retain even 5% of 2009 voting means, it is not possible for YSRC to win including a case where SCs voted 100%. Math doesn't add up unless they invent new voting numbers.

Only scenario they win will be rigging, fraud, EVM manipulations.

[krishnan]

The Election Commission (EC) has ordered repolling at 29 polling stations in Telangana and Seemaandhra regions of Andhra Pradesh where polling was held on April 30 and May 7.

Based on the reports submitted by the state CEO and the Returning Officers as well as complaints received from the contesting candidates, the Commission declared the polling held in these polling stations as void, and ordered repolling.

Of the 29 polling stations, 12 are in Telangana and 17 in Seemaandhra regions.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-lo ... sh-1987039

[ShyamSP]

In another 24 hours we will see exit polls.
... We will know in 24hrs anyway. The babudom, the administration is getting ready for CBN as they believe that he is on his way to form the government.

We shouldn't trust exit polls also. They are using exit polls to form alliances. If pre-poll surverys are utterly bogud, post-poll are somewhat bogus.

Lie about numbers and lock-in some alliances.

[Virupaksha]

In another 24 hours we will see exit polls.
... We will know in 24hrs anyway. The babudom, the administration is getting ready for CBN as they believe that he is on his way to form the government.

We shouldn't trust exit polls also. They are using exit polls to form alliances. If pre-poll surverys are utterly bogud, post-poll are somewhat bogus.

Lie about numbers and lock-in some alliances.

it is politics sir, nobody is stupid. Each of them have their own polling agencies and even they will not be completely believed. This is the time for "opening of communication channels" and this will be done by most to all the parties who have even 1% chance of coming inside the alliance. Any "agreements" which happen now will be reviewed after may 16 and all agreements are tentative alliances onlee.

[ShyamSP]

We shouldn't trust exit polls also. They are using exit polls to form alliances. If pre-poll surverys are utterly bogud, post-poll are somewhat bogus.

Lie about numbers and lock-in some alliances.

it is politics sir, nobody is stupid. Each of them have their own polling agencies and even they will not be completely believed. This is the time for "opening of communication channels" and this will be done by most to all the parties who have even 1% chance of coming inside the alliance. Any "agreements" which happen now will be reviewed after may 16 and all agreements are tentative alliances onlee.

I don't disagree. My point is no that.

It is like "I'll get 1 MP seat, can we have alliance", Mamata will not entertain Jagan. "I'll get 25 seats, can we have alliance" gets attention. Sakshi and NDTV are there to provide some news bite on the exit polls.

If you can't be in winner circle, you try to be in the next best circle. Jagan is trying that as he needs to "survive" if he doesn't get numbers.

[Muppalla]

YSRC wins, as they claim, only if they get 100% INC+PRP from 2009. All other scenarios maximum they get is 10 MP seats and worse 4 MP seats considering past elections and non-politically-correct demographics data. If Kapus voted for TDP more and INC still get to retain even 5% of 2009 voting means, it is not possible for YSRC to win including a case where SCs voted 100%. Math doesn't add up unless they invent new voting numbers.

Only scenario they win will be rigging, fraud, EVM manipulations.

Absolutely. I don't really see any ground changes to be something different from the above. The swing is always Kapus and whomever they voted ruled the state.

[Virupaksha]

and that will happen even after the results. If Jagan cant win now, he is finished and he knows it. His party will splinter and a section might go back to congress.

On the other hand, if tdp loses, TDP will survive or change. it may even survive without splintering, but CBN dominance will go.

[Virupaksha]

^^ Hope you are right Muppllaji

I pray every day for NaMo at the center and no Jagan in AP. Never prayed or wished any thing for myself in my life.

The brahmins from AP have so much anger against Naidu/Kammas not sure why! The know Jagan is corrupt and curse him. They know about conversion factories but they secretly wish Naidu is crushed. Hard to understand all the undercurrents.

Looks like there is not much Modi swing at all. What explains that? Is AP doomed with idiots who can't raise beyond I hate Kammas and we want all free.

Actually the hate is from the other side. Brahmins are about 2-4% of AP. So fair representation in candidates would be about 6 - 10 mla candidates out of 294 and 1-2 mp candidates out of 42.

Guess the number of seats allocated to brahmins by bjp/tdp in andhra pradesh in 2014.

Ans: 0

Guess the number of seats allocated to brahmins by tdp in 2009.

Ans : 0

Guess the number of seats allocated to brahmins by tdp in 2004.

Ans : 0

Twitter or internet rhetoric does not make politics. All brahmin politicians of ap know this and I can assure you it was not because of lack of trying. There are glass ceilings for brahmin politics in tdp and post venkaih naidu bjp at below mla level. Combine this with the removal of karnam posts by ntr, you know why brahmins do not vote for tdp.

Check out the leaders of bjp from 1970s, when nobody was looking at them. There were many brahmin leaders from vishakapatnam, vijayawada etc. After the control passed on to venkaih naidu (a kamma himself) in 1990s, they were all ruthlessly backbenched.

Congress for all its faults doesnt have a glass ceiling for any caste. Oh! it will play caste politics ruthlessly when it feels it is in its benefit, but in the next election itself, it will not hesitate to completely overturn its combinations. It has done this many times through history. TDP since its inception has been kamma dominated, will remain kamma dominated and will lose itself before that domination is overturned. For all its rhetoric, its basic dna precludes from ever removing glass ceilings for brahmins.

If people were reading their local newspapers, where chota mota leaders were trying for tickets using their caste as usp. Many brahmin sabhas (all single members consisting of only and only the aspirant) were created to ask for tickets, but interesting more than 90% were asking congress, ysrcp for tickets but almost none for tdp/bjp. Yes, congress which was expected to hold 3rd place was being asked but tdp which is in contention for 1st wasnt. That should tell you about what the expectations from brahmin politicians was.

TDP always has been good rhetoric wise but rhetoric is not action. Politicians are not fooled by rhetoric and look at action and action only. Brahmin politicians washed their hands off tdp/bjp for good reason.

[Muppalla]

^^ Hope you are right Muppllaji

I pray every day for NaMo at the center and no Jagan in AP. Never prayed or wished any thing for myself in my life.

The brahmins from AP have so much anger against Naidu/Kammas not sure why! The know Jagan is corrupt and curse him. They know about conversion factories but they secretly wish Naidu is crushed. Hard to understand all the undercurrents.

Looks like there is not much Modi swing at all. What explains that? Is AP doomed with idiots who can't raise beyond I hate Kammas and we want all free.

The much anger against Kammas/Naidu is not just for Brahmins. It is there for several sections. In fact the entire Telangana separation was triggered due to this factor. I wrote this in T-thread as well long ago.

However, the facts are:
(1) On ground, most of the Brahmins (especially the ones in 20 to 35 age group) voted from TDP this round. Even in the aged groups who in their life time never every voted other than Congress, this time voted to TDP. That is the single reason why Vijayamma is on dead-heat with Haribabu in Vizag seat. Her spending of 150cr only brought her to dead heat situation and not a guaranteed winning situation.

(2) A lot of non-Kammas whose knowledge is stuck in 80s/90s think Naidu is very deep in promotion of kammas. This is factually wrong as lot of them deserted him and TDP because he did not create a fiefdom for Kammas like Jagan/YSR created. That is why you still see/seen a lot more Kammas in YSRC, INC. By the way all these cronies are looking for BJP as next bet. For now they are rallying around TDP but they will leave it very quickly as what they ask is impossible.

But perceptions beat facts by miles in the noise and that is the ground reality where TDP is fighting this time.

CBN is single handedly called as Teleangana drohi (a.k.a TDP = Telangana Drohi Party) and everything else is not even discussed for perceived/real woes of Telangana. If you argue with granular stuff, they will listen but will never be convinced. It is a situation of "I don't like him. Period. I don't want to listen anything."

If you see, KCR even after the formation of Telangana, he wishes to see Jagan winning Seemandhra. Every party and faction of Telangana including BJP just hates CBN like there is no tomorrow for hatred. In fact now that the state is divided, but they are keen to see TDP losing Seemandhra. Not that they have any love for Jagan but he is preferable over CBN in the new neighboring state.

These are the ground biases you need to keep in mind when you take someone's analysis. On the twitter chinmay, bala are all very anti-CBN/TDP (though both of them are from SA origin settled in HYD). Chinmay is the pollster of AP for 5fourty3. In the end biases are taking over data. Whoever is right will claim their model is best.

If a non-kamma says I hate casteism and he is from AP, understand that he hates Kammas. If a kamma says the same, he is becoming defensive as the perception is "all kammas are casteistic". The fact is all the warrior castes are equally casteistic.

Anyway we will know the results by Friday. I sincerely hope TDP-BJP wins to beat the treachery. I also sincerely hope that TRS wins absolute majority with KCR as CM to see what the hell he can deliver as he is saying a lot of things. Modi is anyway the next PM of India.

[ShyamSP]

Code: Select all

Seemandhra/Residual AP/Rayalaseema+Kosta Predictions
Post-poll date: 05/09/2014
=========================================================================
Party   | No. of Seats |  MP constituencies
=========================================================================
BJP     |       2      |  Narasapuram, Tirupati
=========================================================================
YCP     |       6      |  Kadapa, Rajampeta, Nandyala, Nellore, 
        |              |  Visakapatnam, Araku
=========================================================================
TDP     |       17     |  Chittoor, Hindupur, Ananthapur, Kurnool,  
        |              |  Ongole, Narasarao Peta, Bapatla, Guntur, 
        |              |  Vijayawada, Machilipatnam, Eluru, Rajamundry, 
        |              |  Kakinada, Amalapuram, Anakapalli, 
        |              |  Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam
=========================================================================
* Araku, Narsarao Pet, Bapatla, Kurnool, Anathapur, Visaka are close calls.

past links:
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1639669
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1633659

[devesh]

Muppalla garu,

you are taking the CBN hatred thing to exaggeration. CBN is not hated that much. he is simply NOT trusted. hatred is too strong a word. TRUST is the real issue. that's where he is deficient. HATE is a whole other thing. don't confuse the two.

[ShyamSP]

These are the ground biases you need to keep in mind when you take someone's analysis. On the twitter chinmay, bala are all very anti-CBN/TDP (though both of them are from SA origin settled in HYD). Chinmay is the pollster of AP for 5fourty3. In the end biases are taking over data. Whoever is right will claim their model is best.

Interesting to note that. Bias here is YCP = 93% INC + PRP, TDP = no improvement.

http://5forty3.in/wp-content/uploads/20 ... ctions.jpg

[Virupaksha]

Muppalla garu,

there is also an intra-caste war which is giving you such a view. It has an added advantage that whoever wins, they always have access to power. CBN was growing too big for his boots and thus an open secret for politicians is, CBN, chiranjeevi and JP had heavy funds from the same sources. Unfortunately their calculations worked too well and CBN was defeated, but that is another story because the vote cutters attracted funds from other sources as well.

There was an intra-reddy war during 70s with the division being religion, but as todays scenario shows, that war's result is out with the defeated accepting the leadership of the other.

[Virupaksha]

ShyamSP,

I think the interesting thing is that Tdp could maintain its voteshare. Remember from 2010 to 2013, for more than 3 years, cbn went into a shell while jagan was going all guns blazing.

[ShyamSP]

ShyamSP,

I think the interesting thing is that Tdp could maintain its voteshare. Remember from 2010 to 2013, for more than 3 years, cbn went into a shell while jagan was going all guns blazing.

What did he do while guns-blazing in those 3 year that makes you think TDP lost vote share?

You mean TRS and YCP dance like resigning 10-20 seats and having bi-elections there and then winning back those seats?

[vivek.rao]

Code: Select all

Seemandhra/Residual AP/Rayalaseema+Kosta Predictions
Post-poll date: 05/09/2014
=========================================================================
Party   | No. of Seats |  MP constituencies
=========================================================================
BJP     |       2      |  Narasapuram, Tirupati
=========================================================================
YCP     |       6      |  Kadapa, Rajampeta, Nandyala, Nellore, 
        |              |  Visakapatnam, Araku
=========================================================================
TDP     |       17     |  Chittoor, Hindupur, Ananthapur, Kurnool,  
        |              |  Ongole, Narasarao Peta, Bapatla, Guntur, 
        |              |  Vijayawada, Machilipatnam, Eluru, Rajamundry, 
        |              |  Kakinada, Amalapuram, Anakapalli, 
        |              |  Vijayanagaram, Srikakulam
=========================================================================
* Araku, Narsarao Pet, Bapatla, Kurnool, Anathapur, Visaka are close calls.

past links:
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1639669
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1633659

If this happens, aap ki muh me shaker

I will send you a wine bottle wherever you are.

Is Vizag for Vijayamma sure shot? I hope that is lost there.

[Muppalla]

ShyamSP,

I think the interesting thing is that Tdp could maintain its voteshare. Remember from 2010 to 2013, for more than 3 years, cbn went into a shell while jagan was going all guns blazing.

The voteshare never changed. The kapu vote is the swing. If you see 2009 and if there was no Chiru, there would be no YSR government. As that became very much aware, the forces have convinced Sonia to go ahead with Telangana as this state's vote banks are never changing and used this as one of the factors. If you read early 2009 Sonia's responses to Kavuri etc., all she said was this division is very good for party.

This time TDP did exactly opposite using Pawan Kalyan.

[vivek.rao]

Interesting thing I heard is many people took money from YSR but voted for TDP+BJP

[Virupaksha]

ShyamSP,

I think the interesting thing is that Tdp could maintain its voteshare. Remember from 2010 to 2013, for more than 3 years, cbn went into a shell while jagan was going all guns blazing.

What did he do while guns-blazing in those 3 year that makes you think TDP lost vote share?

You mean TRS and YCP dance like resigning 10-20 seats and having bi-elections there and then winning back those seats?

jagan, his mother and sister were doing daily roadshows through out that period. I agree with the question that he was not doing kejri stunts.

There was a steady stream of leaders who were leaving him and until 3 months before elections, there werent new additions.

PS: My position is this. between tdp, ysrcp, cong - my preference order is tdp, cong, ysrcp. but I dont confuse tdp being the right choice now to being a right choice.

[ShyamSP]

Is Vizag for Vijayamma sure shot? I hope that is lost there.

No. In many cases BJP came 1% or more. Money can buy 3% easily so made it close call.
Worst case YCP got is 2 seats, next 4 seats, then 6 seats, then 9 seats, and then best case is 11 seats. After that TDP has to lose good vote share of 2009 to get any more seats.

[ShyamSP]

What did he do while guns-blazing in those 3 year that makes you think TDP lost vote share?

You mean TRS and YCP dance like resigning 10-20 seats and having bi-elections there and then winning back those seats?

jagan, his mother and sister were doing daily roadshows through out that period. I agree with the question that he was not doing kejri stunts.

There was a steady stream of leaders who were leaving him and until 3 months before elections, there werent new additions.

PS: My position is this. between tdp, ysrcp, cong - my preference order is tdp, cong, ysrcp. but I dont confuse tdp being the right choice now to being a right choice.

During that time, wasn't CBN beaten up by Maharastra police in Babli, visiting flood-affected farmers, walking across AP many thousands of KMs?

I don't think he lost any that matters for the TDP. Many were TDP dissidents anyway.

Where as the ones TDP picked up are worthy. For example Magunta from Ongole, JC from Ananthpur, Ganta from Visaka. Such people make TDP to win seats.

[ramana]

The grand story is Reddys aligning with Congress have made themselves irrelevant in Telugu lands and are now a faction group led by YSJ.
Trace the story from just about pre-1956 to now. Their dominance was so much that many people had to do name change to just get business and contracts in the 60s.

[member_28352]

^^True about that Ramana garu. Reddy's who ruled AP via the Congress are now irrelevant in both T and SA. In any case T is far more egalitarian and cosmopolitan than SA that all castes, BCs, Velamas, SCs have a chance. In SA the Kapus are now the kingmakers with the Reddys and Kammas being part of opposite camps.

[Shanmukh]

There was an intra-reddy war during 70s with the division being religion, but as todays scenario shows, that war's result is out with the defeated accepting the leadership of the other.

This is a very interesting point, Virupaksha-ji, and completely new to me. Can you please point to some events, and the principal actors in this war? Any links you can dig up on this (Telugu links are perfectly fine for me) would be greatly appreciated.

[Virupaksha]

There was an intra-reddy war during 70s with the division being religion, but as todays scenario shows, that war's result is out with the defeated accepting the leadership of the other.

This is a very interesting point, Virupaksha-ji, and completely new to me. Can you please point to some events, and the principal actors in this war? Any links you can dig up on this (Telugu links are perfectly fine for me) would be greatly appreciated.

neelam sanjeeva reddy (hindu) and kasu brahmananda reddy factions.

sanjeeva reddy proteges being jc diwakar reddy (now in tdp), kotla vijaya bhaskar reddy.
brahmananda reddy proteges being N janardana reddy (died yesterday), ysr.

[Muppalla]

5forty3 wanted to be extremely conservative on NDA side even at the cost of erring. Same Chinmay at a personal level tweets as below:
My personal prediction of Seemandhra post polling is
TDP-95,BJP-3
YSRCP-72
Others-3
Congress-2
I am stressing on "personal".

Note that he worked hard in collecting data.

[Muppalla]

Regarding why Vijayamma will lose Vizag,

Vizag MP : 60k Andhra university votes.. 1lakh North Indian votes... 1.2 lakh Velama vote's... All these are solid NDA votes .. KHB will win for sure

[Shanmukh]

This is a very interesting point, Virupaksha-ji, and completely new to me. Can you please point to some events, and the principal actors in this war? Any links you can dig up on this (Telugu links are perfectly fine for me) would be greatly appreciated.

neelam sanjeeva reddy (hindu) and kasu brahmananda reddy factions.

sanjeeva reddy proteges being jc diwakar reddy (now in tdp), kotla vijaya bhaskar reddy.
brahmananda reddy proteges being N janardana reddy (died yesterday), ysr.

Thanks, Virupaksha-ji. Very much obliged. Didn't know Janardana Reddy was Christian. But Kotla was CM in 90s, was he not? And have the Kotlas accepted the leadership of the Christian Reddies?

[Virupaksha]

only the crumbs or those who personally cannot accept are still in congress or in the worst case like jc moved to tdp.

Note even kiran kumar reddy couldnt move. These are the leftovers.

From now on, if any reddy becomes a chief minister, he will not be from this group.

The winners came up because the centre (indira, rajiv) was playing both sides alternatively and the winning faction was clever enough to change the ground rules. Sonia instead of playing that game, gave extended support to the winning faction for a long time and so when she tried to not play excessively for this faction, the faction deemed that it was strong enough to break away.

Now this group believes it doesnt require direct centre blessing any longer. That is their weakness and strength.

If Bjp requires jagan's support, the concessions required will take a huge toll. If on the other hand, jagan loses and bjp comes to power, if and this is a big big if, cbn can be ruthless, expect rollbacks to start.

[Shanmukh]

only the crumbs or those who personally cannot accept are still in congress or in the worst case like jc moved to tdp.

Note even kiran kumar reddy couldnt move. These are the leftovers.

From now on, if any reddy becomes a chief minister, he will not be from this group.

Very interesting. But Christian Reddies are still a miniscule part of Reddy community. If Jagan is destroyed post election, does it foreclose a Hindu Reddy regaining control of Reddies?

[Virupaksha]

Very interesting. But Christian Reddies are still a miniscule part of Reddy community. If Jagan is destroyed post election, does it foreclose a Hindu Reddy regaining control of Reddies?

Christian Reddies bring with them a big christian sc vote bank. it is those numbers and sheep which gave them victory in this fight.

What numbers do hindu reddies bring? Which caste whose numbers are decent can these hindu reddies bring along with them? (hint: look at kiran kumar reddy)

[vivek.rao]

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... ying-TDP-/

The election commission has made all the necessary arrangements for the counting of local body polls in Andhra Pradesh.Muncipality results will be announced on Monday and MPTC & ZPTC results will be revealed on Tuesday. The counting will start Monday from 8 AM and EC officials made necessary arrangements.Many of the surveys predicting TDP wave in Local body elections and the leaders eagerly waiting to know the results.

TDP is likely to lead in both municipalities and ZPTCs and Jagan led YSR CP is rumored to be getting second place in these elections. However ,YCP leaders saying that the outcome of Local body elections will not have any impact on Assembly results as they were held in entirely different scenario. But TDP is reiterating the fact that those are the voters who voted same in Assembly polls.

[hanumadu]

neelam sanjeeva reddy (hindu) and kasu brahmananda reddy factions.

sanjeeva reddy proteges being jc diwakar reddy (now in tdp), kotla vijaya bhaskar reddy.
brahmananda reddy proteges being N janardana reddy (died yesterday), ysr.

Are you saying kasu brahmananda reddy and n janardan reddy are christians? There is no evidence of it other than some rumours. In the case of kasu brahmananda reddy, the rumours are purely on one or two internet sites.

[RamaY]

It should be easy to find out by checking how NJR's last rites were done.

[hanumadu]

He denied he is a christian in some program called 'open heart with rk' available on youtube. He even said how the rumour started. He actually built a temple(pictures of which were shown in the program) for the harijans in his village with his own money as they were not being allowed into the existing one.

[ramana]

N Sanjeeva Reddy was the unquestioned leader when the State was formed. He moved to Center and left K Brahmanda Reddy in Hyderabad. KBR sided with Indira when NSR sided with the Syndicate. That started the Reddy wars.

[member_28533]

BRF Gurus,

Surprising to see 5forty3 guy predict a narrow NDA victory, even though this is not a general perception from what I gathered..

Spoke with my cousin in Seemandhra who canvassed for BJP and currently has contact at ground level. He confided that TDP leaders are not confident from earlier on, as new data is arriving in and that is the reason why they are scaling down from initial brags of 130+ to about 90-100 at present. Among different segments of population, the mood is anti-Kamma, as they are being blamed for bifurcation and also the fear that they would clannishly dominate the state building, if they were voted to power.

The only reason why several middle class voters voted for Jagan is due to a perceived notion that he was anti-Kamma, even if he were an EJ or corruption-czar didnt register with voters as much as his ability to withstand Kammas.

Another interesting snippet, which he vowed to be true - apparently, some YSRCP agents were instructing the mass labor voters who were swayed by cash and liquor to cross vote for BJP in lok sabha for reasons best known to them. Apparently, the voters messed up between Lok sabha and assembly poll ballots and cast the first segment of votes for Jagan and next for BJP.. the result - YSRCP for LS and BJP in assembly. This implies that cross voting data, even if based on booth-level exit poll data, may be incorrect due to voter confusion.