Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
TimesNow pointing to the coming EVM magic in Rajasthan ?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
TimesNow credibility destroyed totally.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Thanks hanumadu, muraliravi. I am switching between csds and Chanakya
EDIT : TimesNow is weird
EDIT : TimesNow is weird
Last edited by Comer on 12 May 2014 19:45, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1622253
just for comparison.
This was done in March just before the polls. Seems so long ago.
muraliravi wrote:Here you go sir,ramana wrote:muraliravi, Please add one more column, Average of the surveys, As central limit theorem shows we results get to converge. And then compare it to the link posted by RajeshA which also has that column.
Thanks,
ramana
Please note that I have used a 50% weight reduction factor for IBTL as I see them to be very biased towards BJP.
RamaY sir, your formula will make sense under normal circumstances, but I find some inherent biases in these surveys, lets skip that for now.
I have not included TG/Seemandhra simply because the alliance is fluid and I will put my analyst head and say reliable surveys give BJP a big zero in both states, TDP is not part of this table as these are just BJP numbers.
Anyway, my prediction stays with the minimum, I dont expect them to go below 175 seats or above 190 seats. 175-190 will be their final tally.
just for comparison.
This was done in March just before the polls. Seems so long ago.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
what is the total for NDA that TimesNow is coming up with?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
249Anindya wrote:what is the total for NDA that TimesNow is coming up with?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Firstpost @firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
However, avoid TimesNow its getting weird on this channel
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
It gives 249 to NDA and 148 to UPA. Congis are being saved in a last ditch effort by Newstraders and Dienasty A$$licker Dorrknob from TimesNow.
Don't even watch.
Don't even watch.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
TimesNow is totally in la la land
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Guys chill. How do you expect Timesnow to start reporting accurately when all along they were Congress A team? Look at other reports also.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
check out India tv
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
either timesnow is totally sold out or EVM magic is underway in Raj
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Even with NDA at 249 - NDA forms government by including independents + BJD/AIDMK or some small set of parties.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
I think TOI group needs to be investigated and destroyed. The way they LIE, create LIES against BJP, promote Priyanka, there has been a total case of sold out media to foreign interests. If this group is not destroyed, they will destroy India with their foreign bankingSanku wrote:TimesNow is totally in la la land
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
They surveyed people exiting Congress building and so they are called Exit-polls.ramana wrote:Guys chill. How do you expect Timesnow to start reporting accurately when all along they were Congress A team? Look at other reports also.
I don't think they follow any basics of surveys.
Timesnow man: "what is your number madam?"
Madam: "180"
Timesnow man: "for 20 cr more, we can make it 200"
Madam: "go for it"
Arnab: "In an extensive and scientific survey done throughout India, ...."
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Waiting for Chanakya's results for UP, Bihar, Seemandra and Telangana. Hasn't updated in a while.
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
unlikely..rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Saswati Sarkar @sarkar_swati 20s
TCExitPoll giving an amazing 272+ to BJP alone. They were right on Delhi in 13
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Who is doing the exit poll for time now?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Chanakya giving 291 to BJP, NDA 340.................
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
But the exit poll data would have little to do with EVM tampering. Most likely their data collection is flawed or they are cooking numbers (i.e. sold out to anti-NDA forces). I have stopped looking at TimesNow, since we know their prediction (NDA = 249) now.SandeepA wrote:either timesnow is totally sold out or EVM magic is underway in Raj
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Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
SandeepA wrote:unlikely..rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
yeah, kind of feel that after seeing their latest tweet for UP.
Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats) #BJP+ 70 ± 7 Seats #BSP 3 ± 2 Seats #SP 4 ± 2 Seats #Congress+ 3 ± 1 Seats
NaMo will lose only
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
Beats the BRF GJP by a mile.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
+108. Even 249 is good enough. BJP is already in talks with DMKAnindya wrote:Even with NDA at 249 - NDA forms government by including independents + BJD/AIDMK or some small set of parties.
Timesnow is the low life-low bar. Headlines on TOIlet is ADMK sweepng TN with BJP =0.To some one who does not follow much, it looks like BJP is out.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Chanakya giving 70 to bjp in UP
Last edited by amdavadi on 12 May 2014 19:59, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Holy mother of god. Seriously, 70 in UP.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
I hope this is right..but don't you guys think this estimate is a bit too skewed for the BJP/NDA.rajiv wrote:Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCExitPoll All India Tally (543 seats) #BJP 291 ± 14 Seats #Cong 57 ± 9 Seats #NDA 340 ±14 Seats #UPA 70 ±9 Seats Others 133 ±11 Seats
-M
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
http://www.gulte.com/news/27002/Fieldin ... -a-MISTAKE
Andhra Octopus Lagadapati Rajagopal hints possible defeat of YSR Congress party's honorary president YS Vijayamma in Visakha Lok Sabha constituency.
Speaking to a news channel, Lagadapati said: "During a flight journey, Brother Anil approached me to seek my opinion on the constituency Sharmila has to contest in 2014 Polls. He said to me that Jagan wishes to field her either from Malkajgiri or Vizag. I explained him both of these Lok Sabha constituencies were too risky as they fall in Urban area. I told him to prefer Anakapalli or Ongole or any other segment which falls in rural area."
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
In Lighter vein
New Delhi. In a joint meeting held by the representatives of all leading news channels last evening, it was unanimously decided to give at least 150 seats to AAP in every exit poll that will be telecast today after 6:30 pm.
The channels took this decision to avoid Aroon Purie like situation, where Kejriwal accused him selling his soul to Narendra Modi and called his opinion poll on Varanasi, farzi.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Reasonable.?Dilbu wrote:Firstpost @firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Dilbu: True, there is no incentive to bluff on an exit poll. I think the different poll agencies have different mechanism to dampen the wave factor, for lack of a better term. Atleast there is a wave!
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
ORG-MARGabhik wrote:Who is doing the exit poll for time now?
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Dilbu bhai,Dilbu wrote:What is there to sell out in an exit poll? It will not affect the results or further voting. Also it is only channel's reputation which is going to be on the line. For projecting a rosy image for 3 days will someone pay to get exit polls cooked?
Do not under estimate the power of money. People can do strange things.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Timesnow will not report such numbers unless they are in on some magic in Rajastan etc. They will not risk credibility by reporting this now only to be proven wrong in a few days.SwamyG wrote:Reasonable.?Dilbu wrote:Firstpost @firstpostin 30s
Times Now Exit Poll National Projection: NDA - 249, UPA-148
Dhoti shivering onleee..
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
There is a congress sweep in Kerala. Ashamed.
I am moving my vote from that god forsaken place to Bangalore, Kerala. Enough is enough.
I am moving my vote from that god forsaken place to Bangalore, Kerala. Enough is enough.
Re: Exit Polls & Discussion 2014 Elections
Oh well. Modi has ended up polarizing Exit Polls as well. Arnab circus at 249, Today's Chanakya at 340!