Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 May 2014 16:02

The ITALIAN SCUM has not given up. It is not over until it is over. The SCUM is still trying to see how to subvert and destroy India using Mayas and Mamtas.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

Sonia sends SOS to Maya, Mulayam, Mamata to keep Modi at bay

If you thought the Congress, embarrassed at projections of its worst ever tally in a Lok Sabha election, has its tail between its legs, think again.

In a last-ditch attempt to cobble together a government in the hope that the exit polls are at least marginally wrong -- and the NDA falls short of the halfway mark -- the Congress party is reportedly reaching out to "like-minded" parties with the objective of keeping the NDA and BJP from forming the government. And the first three who have come to mind appear to have been the unlikely troika of Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee.

A report in The Economic Times says party president Sonia Gandhi "personally reached out to" Mamata Banerjee more than a week ago. The same report said the All India Congress Committee has been in regular touch with BSP chief Mayawati as well as with the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav. Does the math add up for the too-hopeful Congress?

The CNN-IBN-CSDS survey predicts 13 to 17 seats for the SP, 10 to 14 for the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. If they score a couple of seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BSP tally could go up to 16. That is around 32-36 seats between the two UP-based parties. The Trinamool Congress could win 25 to 31 seats in WB. If the Congress manages to work out this '3M' formula and manage their internal differences, this could add about 60-odd seats to the Congress's tally. With the best projection of all the exit polls for the UPA putting it at 135, it appears that the math will still not add up, unless the third front or federal front comes together as well to keep Modi out.

Shows that ITALIAN is doing every constitutional and unconstitutional trick to screw Indians and searching for traitors.

What a great move by Modi to cut JD(U) and not rely on other parties getting majority for BJP. If Advani/Sushma werer in charge, this is where we were headed for and ITALIAN would have easily pulled the rug under BJP. Nitish would have demanded RSS should be discarded or RSS-BJP links need to be removed.

Remember Janata,JanataDal... All used the same trick.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 13 May 2014 16:22

i am not going to believe BJP will win even 200 seats till i see the results, the scumbags can do anything

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 13 May 2014 16:41

Victor wrote: True, most of these exit polls are wrong except Chanakya. No way is BJP getting less than 272 on its own.

I see it like this:

In multiangular contests:
~10% of national votebase will get you nothing unless all of them are concentrated in one district.
~20% will get you some seats in areas of concentration, but still not much.
~30% you will get about a fourth of the seats.
~35% will lead to a whole lot more probably like a third of the seats probably even 40% of the seats.
Now from this point if you just get an additional trickle of say 2-3% more you will probably end up getting 50% mark.
For getting 2/3rd of the seats or even 100% of the seats, you obviously do not require 100% of the votes.

You are basically betting on that trickle which actually is the error margin of these exit polls. From a pragmatic stand point, that is only a wish. Even if it ultimately gets to be granted, you are still a punter and not a player. You are a Virendra Sehwag

.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 13 May 2014 16:42

Their desperation (in stark contrast to their haughty arrogance before polling) may be an indication that EVMology can only go so far and can only handle minor tinkering here and there. More likely their inside tech guys have told them it's curtain time because they are faced with an unstoppable landslide. Hope I'm right though. In meantime, dhoti shivering in narrow dark place onlee.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 13 May 2014 16:44

NaMo will lose onlee.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 13 May 2014 16:48

ravi_g wrote: that is only a wish. Even if it ultimately gets to be granted, you are still a punter and not a player. You are a Virendra Sehwag .

True, true. NaMo will not get 272 onlee

James B · Post by **James B** » 13 May 2014 16:50

I hope May 16 results will put the EVM rigging theory to rest once and for all. I personally believe that EVM rigging is not possible to do in large scale. If INC can do, so can BJP & any other party. As simple as that.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 May 2014 16:53

Guruprasad made the point it was not EVM rigging but better management of the first past the post that allowed the INC to win in 2004. Of course the blatant rigging this time via deletion of voters names is another factor.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 13 May 2014 17:18

exit polls automatically means deletion of voters name list is taken care...exit poll is done with people that voted.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 13 May 2014 17:23

Today NCP congress has offered support to NDA. It seems unconditional. So if it is 250for NDA, NCP can give 15 seats and with independents it will be 272. No chance for 4M crooks

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 13 May 2014 17:31

Anantha wrote:Today NCP congress has offered support to NDA. It seems unconditional. So if it is 250for NDA, NCP can give 15 seats and with independents it will be 272. No chance for 4M crooks

Do you have link?

I am not too comfortable about NDA taking support from a crook and opportunist like Sharad Pawar who didn't lift a finger to help save the farmers commiting suicide. His nephew Ajit Pawar should also be kept as far as possible from NDA. Praful Patel is not a person to be trusted either, what with his role in the decline of Air India.

I would prefer to have support of Naveen Patnaik or even Jayalalitha for that matter.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 17:34

the 3Ms are firmly with Soniaji.

that leaves TRS, Patnaik, JJ and NCP as the four others with good number of seats to swing the battle. take your pick.

Patnaik could be problematic if he feels the NDA is taking over the place of INC as his main state level oppn, but at the same time he needs central help to unblock and get going with several mega projects the EJ/NAC combine have blocked. he also does not depend on mussalman vote bank probably...and not given to the crazy moods of JJ. so might be the safest of the 4 ?

also I dont know if the NE regional party front is already counted as NDA but PA Sangma personally visited Namo yday in A'bad and offered full support to NDA. not sure how many seats they have.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 13 May 2014 17:37

ORG wants Times Now to not use ORG acronym, raises no question on authenticity of exit polls

The #MegaExitPolls by Times Now has been mired in controversy after a leading research group called ORG raised a protest saying that they had not done any exit polls for the channel, and it was being done by a different group using the same acronym (ORG)

In a communication sent to Times Now’s Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami on Monday, the Managing Director of Operations Research Group Pvt. Ltd or (ORG) Debasish Banerjee asked Times Now to refrain from using the acronym ORG while telecasting the polls and instead use the full name of the company which conducted the exit polls.

The exit polls for Times Now was conducted by a company called Operations Research Guild India Pvt Ltd or ORG-India headed by Mr Amit Roy.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 13 May 2014 17:37

Dont have the link.
Sure no one needs crooks like NCP. The key is, if only 25 seats are needed (247 for NDA), it is easy as Mamta and Jaya's negotiating room is reduced when NCP/independents are shown as a card. Once a Govt is formed there wont be much room to negotiate for the crooked parties

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 13 May 2014 17:47

Anantha wrote:Dont have the link.
Sure no one needs crooks like NCP. The key is, if only 25 seats are needed (247 for NDA), it is easy as Mamta and Jaya's negotiating room is reduced when NCP/independents are shown as a card. Once a Govt is formed there wont be much room to negotiate for the crooked parties

I don't want to have Mamta either. If NDA takes support from TMC, then it is bye bye to getting rid of illegal Bangla Deshis.
I just might agree to Mayawati.

Atriji, any idea if MNS can get any seats in MH?

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 13 May 2014 17:48

Kejri will not lose deposit onlee

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 May 2014 17:51

James B wrote:I hope May 16 results will put the EVM rigging theory to rest once and for all. I personally believe that EVM rigging is not possible to do in large scale. If INC can do, so can BJP & any other party. As simple as that.

not a theory, but an existing clear and present danger for Indian democracy.
- The EVMs can't prevent duplicates
- The EVMs can't block mass voting
- The EVMs can't prevent human over powering the voters
- The EVMs can't produce a paper trail that match voter ids
- The EVMs can't prevent electronic malfunction
- The EVMs can't validate immediately to a federate service
- The EVMs aren't secured by systems
- The EVMs aren't safe for long distance service from dacoits
- The EVMs can't make whole India vote only for a single day!

and the list is ever growing! 3,500 crores is a waste for this! most of it can be redone, with a federated secured online system that can take laptops to villages for getting votes. all device owners can vote online! the current generation open systems provide much more traceable and trackable security, that make these EVMs a mockery of democracy!!!

These EVMs are darn old! hackable!

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 May 2014 17:54

SandeepA wrote:Kejri will not lose deposit onlee

Yeah , losing his shirt also.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 17:58

it is best and safest to keep allies to the minimum...easier to manage them and control them than a herd of cats each running in different directions.

so allies with biggest number of seats on the table are best imo.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 May 2014 17:59

again.. under a criminal setup, there is no system that is safe from mafia gangs. throwing them away is what this election is all about

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 13 May 2014 18:12

Some guy on TV don't remember which channel pointed out that the previous exit polls were wrong but while they overestimated the also-rans, they mostly underestimated the front runner's lead.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 18:40

Arnab has become more cautious today. he has all 5 exit polls up. diff between ORG and Chanakya is 100 seats.

but the other three Nielsen, Cvoter and CSDS are quite close in the middle....between 265-285....

he is declaring a thumping win for NDA in his tickers. quick CYA from yesterday's episode.

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 13 May 2014 18:42

Singha wrote:Arnab has become more cautious today. he has all 5 exit polls up. diff between ORG and Chanakya is 100 seats.

but the other three Nielsen, Cvoter and CSDS are quite close in the middle.

Is Arnab still using "ORG"? I thought the company had asked him not to use that acronym anymore.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 18:46

yes the name is being mentioned. perhaps he clarified its ORGv2 in the beginning. I am watching his live feed from timesnow.tv

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 13 May 2014 18:46

ORG = "orgy"

Orknob having an Orgy

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 13 May 2014 18:48

I think arnab and co. outsourced to some noobs in the business (which coincidentally has the acronym ORG in the name) that have messed up.
So, since last evening all he is doing is revising his numbers to look credible. but damage is done, he's looking like a village bumpkin now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 18:49

CSDS guy is saying 30% vote share in UP gets you 40/80
after that every 1% gets u 5 seats.
consensus is around 50-55/80 overall, with min around 50.

I note he has 4 rows up on the board, with a poll of polls avg top and ORG is actually missing in his board.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 May 2014 18:49

This is what Sheela Bhat says. Don't believe her that BJP told her these numbers

RSS-BJP exit poll

During the election campaign those who have seen, first hand, the RSS cadres' efforts to motivate voters to go out and vote claim that on a scale of 10 the RSS will get six marks for its unprecedented hard work in villages and towns to inspire voters to vote for Narendra Modi.

The BJP-RSS have prepared their own exit poll with the help of their cadres, and while Rediff.com does not set great store by opinion polls and exit polls, believing that it is best to await the actual election results on May 16, we present some important statistics from the BJP-RSS report for the sake of political animals who may be interested in reading about it.

According to this estimate the following is the tentative number of seats the BJP is likely to win.

State No. of seats
Uttar Pradesh 45
Bihar 18
Gujarat 21
Madhya Pradesh 22
Rajasthan 21
Karnataka 15
Haryana 6
Chhattisgarh 9
Jharkhand 9
Maharashtra 18
West Bengal 3
Seemandhra/Telangana 5
Assam 6
Delhi 5
Tamil Nadu 2
Uttarakhand 4
Jammu and Kashmir 2
Kerala 0
Orissa 3
Punjab 2
Himachal Pradesh 2
Union territories 6
Goa 2

This takes the BJP tally to 226 seats. Those states missing on the list are the ones where the BJP doesn't expect to win any seats.

The BJP-RSS's assessment is that the Telugu Desam Party will win eight seats, the Shiv Sena around 10 to 12 seats and Akali Dal will get five seats.

In addition, in Tamil Nadu, UP, north-eastern states and in Bihar, the BJP's allies will get around 10 more seats. This will take the NDA tally to 259 seats.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 May 2014 18:50

NDTV exit poll will be what the EVM will spit out. We may know a day in advance what is planned. The real result maybe slightly bad than NDTV prediction (just to keep up the charade)

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 13 May 2014 18:55

^^

How does one interprets this?
EVM magic?
Mafia's counting adjustments?
NDTV business model i.e From otherwise fair counting, take the real no.s add 2-3% to publish exit poll to look credible?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 May 2014 18:56

true!!

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 13 May 2014 18:57

^^

Which one? All 3

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 May 2014 19:00

Of the various exit polls,my feeling is that the HT Cicero poll is the most accurate.The NDA in my opinion expressed earlier ,very conservatively was a min. of 250 seats.Optimists say a min of 300,therefore taking the average,it is likely to be a simple majority or thereabouts on their own,with the magic fig. of 272 easily achieved.

The second point is that the talk of a "Modi Wave " ,"tsunami",etc.,has been completely misunderstood by the channels.I would prefer to call it the "Modi Factor",which is experienced differently in the various states.The M-Factor should be rated on a scale of 10 for each state.For example,Kerala could be just a factor of 1-2,UP 9-10,Bihar 8-9,Gujarat 9-10,Rajasthan 8, and so on.This gives a better picture of the effect of Mr.Modi's impact upon the electorate,which must also include his allies in some regions,which will act as "force multipliers".For example,in Seemandhra one could say that the M-factor is around 5,but when coupled with the allies,rises to 7-8! In the south the M-factor has been underestimated in my opinion.The Trivandrum seat is up for grabs by the BJP,and in Karnataka the M-Factor is at least 6,with the return of Yeddy,etc.,going upto 7. In TNadu too,the M-Factor is at least 3-4,along with its allies,which would give it at least from 3-7 seats.Thus using the M-Factor scale,along with the strength of the alliance locally,who rules the state,anti-incumbency factor,etc.,one can estimate the NDA's numbers more accurately.

What is hilarious is that even before the official results,the Congress has declared defeat! "Collective responsibility",not poor Clown Prince Rahulji's fault at all,it's all due to Mini Mini Singh,Chidambaram,Raja,Kalmadi,Sheila Dixit,and co. Whatever the Congress gets is all due to Rahulji and Priyanka's untiring efforts!

As for the 3 M's,the "3 Mummy-gos",their ambitions like that of Humpty Dumpty are going to come a cropper,and all the "Queen-Empress' " asses and all her merrie men,cannot put together a "turd front" alternative ever again!

The overwhelming characteristic of this election has been that of Mr.Modi and his campaign for good governance and development. He has stolen the show and captured the imagination of the people of India.Throughput the length and breadth of the country,the M-factor has been in evidence which should sweep him into power.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 May 2014 19:03

factor or wave, all it matters is the one if it fetches the 2/3rd majority. all depends on the results

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 May 2014 19:04

Lets not discuss this EVM magic. makes me nervous. I want to be an ostrich burying my head into the sand. TimesNow and NDTV. Makes me angry and mad

What kind of nation we are with dangerous crooks taking over every institution. Jaggi's article put it into perspective. When we say MAFIA, there is a MAFIA running this country with DIEnasty as the front. Not sure if we can stop this MAFIA. very despondent. For the first time, I am praying Lord Vishnu to help the nation get rid of these demons. I never pray God to seek anything for me. But if there is one thing I have to choose, this is it. Please! Please! Please help us Now!

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 13 May 2014 19:14

talked to a Sanghi guy who will be part of counting. He says no further EVM manipulation is possible. Small EVM frauds have happened typically in rural areas. So the numbers S Swamy put 5 days ago is more accurate 260-320 where the lowest number represents higher EVM fraud.
Let me repeat, no further EVM fraud is possible.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 May 2014 19:18

TimesNow has just discovered a very strong Anti Modi vote in Bihar. They must be smoking something very powerful.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 13 May 2014 19:20

more shivering

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/05/13/e ... 23061.html

EVM rigging may play spoilsport with exit poll predictions

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 13 May 2014 19:22

chaanakya wrote:TimesNow has just discovered a very strong Anti Modi vote in Bihar. They must be smoking something very powerful.

No not Arnab, and his pollster (now CVoter

) is not either -- only Sankarshan Thakur and others are falling over themselves.

Chaanakya san, it is possible that Arnab goofed up by hiring the org -- remember, they were with CVoter, and jumped ship to these noobs only just before the election (thanks to AAPtards sick campaign)

I do believe we can give him the benifiet of doubt.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 13 May 2014 19:25

^^

Yup, exactly. The poll of poll is Arnab's invention to save face due to ORG-whatever's bullcrap.