Telugu States' News and Discussion

[Dasari]

There are two sides to this.

Telangana wants to assert its separate statehood vis.a.vis Andhrapradesh
Andhrapradesh still thinks Telangana is a sister statelet.

If commercial vehicles entering Telangana from KTaka, Maha etc pay these tasks then Andhra vehicles also must pay for the same. Telangana is a separate state.

Is Hyderabad joint capital for Ktka and Maha? Did TG reject the AP reorg bill? No. If they are so desperate to show off their staehood versus andhra pradesh , they can create a corridor to let the vehicles enter the joint capital and impose tax, like they do on any other state vehicles, when it enters off limits. Perhaps I'm going into the preposterous nature of joint capital and state division by some bone heads. But that is what it is.

[RamaY]

Is Hyderabad joint capital for Ktka and Maha? Did TG reject the AP reorg bill? No. If they are so desperate to show off their staehood versus andhra pradesh , they can create a corridor to let the vehicles enter the joint capital and impose tax, like they do on any other state vehicles, when it enters off limits. Perhaps I'm going into the preposterous nature of joint capital and state division by some bone heads. But that is what it is.

Thanks Saar. I forgot the Joint capital angle.

So as long as Hyderabad remains as joint capital, the Andhra people should be allowed to go there without any taxes.

Cease fire

[Shanmukh]

What makes matters all the more difficult for Seemandhra people is the soft stance being adopted by both Chandrababu and Jagan towards the Telangana people and KCR.

The reason behind this is that both Babu and Naidu are hopeful of coming to power in Telangana in 2019. Hence they do not want to say anything against the Telangana people that might create an adverse image for their Parties.

I am glad you brought this point up, Dasari-ji. I have been wondering about this myself. I am just posting an enumeration of the votes of the 2014 polls, both Assembly, and LS, for the YSR Congress and TDP in all seats of Telangana (the vote shares have been adjusted by the seats they contested).
Assembly:
Adilabad - TDP - 12.44%, YCP - 0.5%
Peddapalle - TDP - 7.84%, YCP - 0.59%
Karimnagar - TDP - 11.28%, YCP - 0.44%
Nizamabad - TDP - 14.19%, YCP - 0.52%
Zahirabad - TDP - 17.88%, YCP - 1.34%
Medak - TDP - 22.93%, YCP - 0.95%
Malkajgiri - TDP - 32.22%, YCP - 7.29%
Secunderabad - TDP - 33.06%, YCP - 6.25%
Hyderabad - TDP - 14.53%. YCP - 1.65%
Chevella - TDP - 31.92%, YCP - 3.47%
Mahabubnagar - TDP - 23.37%, YCP - 1.15%
Nagarkurnool - TDP - 25.54%, YCP - 2.62%
Nalagonda - TDP - 23.03%, YCP - 3.61%
Bhongir - TDP - 20.39%, YCP - 1.55%
Warangal - TDP - 28.37%, YCP - 0.69%
Mahabubabad - TDP - 19.09, YCP - 9.98
Khammam - TDP - 29.96, YCP - 28.43

LS:
Adilabad - TDP- 17.9%
Peddapalle - TDP - 6.2%
Zahirabad - TDP - 14.5%, YCP - 1.1%
Malkajgiri - TDP - 32.5%, YCP - 7.2%
Chevella - TDP - 27.1%, YCP - 3.1%
Nagarkurnool - TDP - 16.7%, YCP - 2.1%
Nalagonda - TDP - 23.6%, YCP - 3.3%
Mahabubabad - TDP - 19.3%, YCP - 11.5%
Khammam - TDP - 34.8%, YCP - 35.8%

For the life of me, I cannot see how the YCP expects to come to power in Telangana, of all places. Even the TDP will find it difficult to win in TG, even in alliance with the BJP, especially in the hardcore Telangana districts, as you can see from the vote share in the northern and western seats. I suspect the reason for the reticence of the TDP and YCP comes from another source. Both have leaders with lots of investment in Hyderabad. They cannot endanger those without offending their own cadres/leaders. And KCR is taking full advantage of their helplessness.

[muraliravi]

Nagesh ji,

I have a slightly different opinion. take a look at this link

http://www.indiavotes.com/ac/allcabdida ... &party=141

I have pulled up TG aseembly election vote shares for TDP by seat. They contested 72/119. BJP contested 45.

TDP total vote share: 14.7%
BJP: 7.1%

Adding the 2 you get 21.8%

So in TG, TRS has 34.3%, Cong has 25.2% and TDP+BJP have 21.8%.

Congress is in a state of perennial decline. If BJP under Amit Shah can strategise well and for now have the sole ambition of displacing TRS (so dont fight too much with TDP at a local level and work with them), they can quite easily put a nice caste combo to displace cong and even become no.1 party.

In fact the more i look at these numbers, i have a feeling that TRS goose is cooked by the time next assembly comes.

He is a horrible CM and he knows that, which is why he is pandering to minorities like crazy and trying to whip up anti andhra feelings among TG hindus. All BJP/TDP have to do is to get 15% extra vote. They can get most of that from cong and some from TRS. My gut is you will see some TG congis move to tdp/bjp in the coming years.

BTW, as we speak 1/2 of JVM has merged into Jharkhand BJP. This Namo/Amit Bhai are a different metal altogether unlike ABV/LKA. We are in for some good times.

[ShyamSP]

So in TG, TRS has 34.3%, Cong has 25.2% and TDP+BJP have 21.8%.

Congress is in a state of perennial decline. If BJP under Amit Shah can strategise well and for now have the sole ambition of displacing TRS (so dont fight too much with TDP at a local level and work with them), they can quite easily put a nice caste combo to displace cong and even become no.1 party.

In fact the more i look at these numbers, i have a feeling that TRS goose is cooked by the time next assembly comes.

T-BJP was worst group to target TDP and both lost. Until they fix BJP leadership in Telangana, there is no hope. All along, T-BJP was stuck with the same mindset as TRS so they can't fight TRS but fight its "friendly" TDP. They couldn't get Congress nor TRS votebank despite acting like same "nasty fellows" as TRS fellows.

From recent news, TDP is strategizing to make Reddy-TDP in T as BJP failed here to do the same. One TDP streamlines Reddy+Kamma+BC combo before next elections, TRS will be cooked. Once T-fetish is gone, TRS can go to low %.

[Dasari]

Nagesh ji,

I have a slightly different opinion. take a look at this link

You both may be right. Think from KCR point of view. What is he getting from these vitriolic jibes and convoluted policies? Just cynical laugh and egoistic satisfaction. I think it is more. As Muraliji said that he feels threatened by TDP although they are distant second. He wants to decimate TDP while the TG sentiment is hot and he enjoying the TG honeymoon. On the other hand, why is CBN using kids gloves? As Nageshji said that CBN is terrified at the prospects of his community and his financiers get beating in Hyderabad.

[Muppalla]

So in TG, TRS has 34.3%, Cong has 25.2% and TDP+BJP have 21.8%.

Congress is in a state of perennial decline. If BJP under Amit Shah can strategise well and for now have the sole ambition of displacing TRS (so dont fight too much with TDP at a local level and work with them), they can quite easily put a nice caste combo to displace cong and even become no.1 party.

In fact the more i look at these numbers, i have a feeling that TRS goose is cooked by the time next assembly comes.

T-BJP was worst group to target TDP and both lost. Until they fix BJP leadership in Telangana, there is no hope. All along, T-BJP was stuck with the same mindset as TRS so they can't fight TRS but fight its "friendly" TDP. They couldn't get Congress nor TRS votebank despite acting like same "nasty fellows" as TRS fellows.

From recent news, TDP is strategizing to make Reddy-TDP in T as BJP failed here to do the same. One TDP streamlines Reddy+Kamma+BC combo before next elections, TRS will be cooked. Once T-fetish is gone, TRS can go to low %.

That is why TRS does all the anti-Andhra and "unofficial Art-370" stuff. He has to keep alive the T-fetish to survive and there is no other easy way for him.

It is too fast conclusion here that AP side folks and CBN are dealing with kid gloves. In addition, some say center is not acting all other type rhona-dhona. Everyone wants to end this T-fetish. You leave KCR doing his T-fetish stuff and not react or retaliate, it will die away. Most of the stuff will not stand in courts. Someone will put things as PILs. For example, the court today gave orders to adhere to bifurcation rules and no transportation changes.

He will be hounded by courts and after an year or two later this T-fetish is not sustainable.

[vivek.rao]

http://www.apherald.com/POLITICS/ViewAr ... E2%80%9D-/

It’s decided that KCR can’t digest any criticism against his government. He wants to control the Media with muscle power. During the first Assembly session, KCR lashed out Telugu Electronic media TV 9 and ABN. KCR said that these two channels cause damage Telangana culture and agitation. All MSOs took the decision unanimously not to telecast TV9 and ABN channels in Telangana. MSOs can’t take back their decision even after more than 45 days of Telangana Government put sanctions on these two channels.

Telangana Government ignores High Court and other Journo appeal to lift the sanctions on TV 9 and ABN. Even BJP Minister Prakash Javadekar can’t do anything in this regard. Now KCR concentrated on National Media. As per latest news, KCR warned direct warning to “Times Of India”. The English Daily has published news on Telangana Government and CM involvement in budget allocations.

TOI published the article that KCR made Finance Minister Etela Rajender as fake. CM KCR involved in budget allocations as per his discretion. KCR has demand explanation from TOI in this regard. KCR also said that Telangana Government has a plan to launch new daily under Telangana Government. By this, it will more tough days ahead for Media to run in Telangana. Definitely! It’s not good for Democracy and new definition requires modifying the Article 19 of the Indian Constitution.

This guy reminds me of Orissa Congress CM called J B Patnaik who was involved in several sexual allegations, rapes and murders. There was a case where a high profile lady was raped.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anjana_Mishra_rape_case

The car in which Anjana and her journalist friend were travelling on 9 January 1999 was intercepted at a desolate place near Barang on the outskirts of Bhubaneswar by the three accused and she was gang raped in front of her friend.[2] Two of the culprits were arrested on 26 January 1999, and remanded to judicial custody.[3] The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) took up the case after the Orissa High Court ordered the investigating agency on 26 February 1999, to probe the case. The CBI submitted its charge-sheet on 5 May 1999.

On 12 July 1997, Anjana formally complained against Ray by writing to the Chief Minister stating that on 11 July Ray invited her on to his office-cum-residence in Cuttack, took her to his bedroom on the pretext of receiving a confidential call, and attempted to rape her. As no action was taken, representatives of several women's organisations met the Chief Minister who suggested a compromise deal. This was rejected by Anjana. She filed a first information report with the Cantonment police station in Cuttack on 19 July 1997. Anjana also accused the Chief Minister of shielding Ray.[5] Ray had to quit the post following a public outcry and the case was taken up by the CBI. The CBI Designated Court sentenced Ray to three years' rigorous imprisonment in February 2000, charging him with attempted rape.

The way Hafta Family is running business looks like he has no rules and would ignore constitution,courts like YSR. Just like welfare and mafia beneficiaries of AP rationalized YSR actions, we have emotionally invested folks keeping quiet or encouraging this nut case.

http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?206852

Orissa chief minister J.B. Patnaik is no stranger to allegations of sexual misconductbut the charges have never stuck. The latest, the alleged gang-rape of Anjana Mishra, a 29-year-old housewife, by Patnaik's men on January 9, is threatening his survival, with even his party rivals joining hands with the Opposition to demand his ouster. That Congress president Sonia Gandhi is taking the charges seriously is evident from the fact that she summoned him to Delhi for an explanation.


Fact is, the law and order situation in Orissa has taken a turn for the worse. On that same Saturday, four other cases of rape were reported. But while the Patnaik government has come out in poor light, the discrepancies in Anjana's own account have cast doubts on her credibility and strengthened the belief that her charges may be politically motivated.

Anjana had earlier rocked the administration when she accused former advocate-general Indrajeet Ray of attempting to rape hershe had implicated Patnaik and is still fighting a legal battle against Ray.

[Shanmukh]

Nagesh ji,

I have a slightly different opinion. take a look at this link

http://www.indiavotes.com/ac/allcabdida ... &party=141

I have pulled up TG aseembly election vote shares for TDP by seat. They contested 72/119. BJP contested 45.

TDP total vote share: 14.7%
BJP: 7.1%

Adding the 2 you get 21.8%

So in TG, TRS has 34.3%, Cong has 25.2% and TDP+BJP have 21.8%.

Congress is in a state of perennial decline. If BJP under Amit Shah can strategise well and for now have the sole ambition of displacing TRS (so dont fight too much with TDP at a local level and work with them), they can quite easily put a nice caste combo to displace cong and even become no.1 party.

MuraliRavi-ji (and other Telangana watcher gurus),
Just outlining my thoughts below.
A rough characterisation of the voting trends in 2014 would be that the TRS, though a Velama enterprise, got support from a large section of the society, particularly in the northern and western districts, but if KCR proves to be a horrible CM, his vote is going to drop heavily in the next term. The Congress takes mainly the Reddy, SC, ST and minority votes, while the TDP takes the Kamma and some OBC vote, mainly based on its strong cadre and local leaders. But they don't really have a good leadership in Telangana (although their leaders are infinitely better than the BJP's). The BJP does not have the support from any one community, but its support comes mainly in the communally polarised areas, and where they have gained defectors from other parties (mainly the TDP). And while the BJP vote bank is not large, it is secure and committed. They may have only 8-10% of the vote, but that vote will always stay with the BJP.

Now, let us look at the problem from the points of view of all the four parties.

TRS - KCR knows that he has made idiotic, unimplementable promises in the run up to the 2014 elections. There is no way he can fulfil them, and he knows it. Consequently, his problem is how to hold on to his support base. I think he is resigned to the fact that he will lose a considerable chunk of the Hindu vote (particularly the floating vote), and so he is determined to make it up by getting hold of the Muslim and Christian vote of the Congress. Further, while he won Telangana, he won nothing in Greater Hyderabad. The situation is, as Dasari-ji (I think) eloquently put it - he has got the kingdom, but not the treasury. All the money is in Hyderabad, and to get hold of it, he needs the Andhra folks, particularly the real estate dealers, put in place. Hence his wooing of the MIM - who have their own handle into the real estate deals in Hyderabad. Also, by playing hyper-Telangana patriot, KCR is trying to keep his Telangana base from bolting. Outside of the Velamas and a few die-hard T-loyalists, KCR has no base that he can genuinely call entirely his own. The remainder of his votebank is compatible with the others.

Cong. - Genuinely speaking, these guys are best placed to form the next government in Telangana. They have a solid votebank that has held firm with them for decades, and the floating vote can go to the Congress in the next election. They have a decent image still as a party that formed Telangana (there is not much anti-Congress sentiment when it comes to Telangana formation). They have about 25% of the vote, a solid cadre, very good local leaders (better than anyone else, in fact) and with the floating vote, can easily win the next elections. But their main problem is that they are seen as a party in decline, as you correctly pointed out. Whether anyone will join a party whose star seems to be waning remains to be seen. Their trajectory in the further Assembly elections and bypolls will bear watching, and will decide how strong or otherwise they are.

TDP - This party faces a conundrum. They have a very good local cadre, a decent vote bank, and a good crop of local leaders. They are seen as the best representatives of the SeemaAndhra folks, and the more KCR demonises them, the more they will run to the TDP. Particularly in the districts of Hyderabad, Rangareddi, Khammam, and to an extent, even Mahabubnagar, the TDP has a very loyal base of SeemaAndhra folks, which along with their OBC base, can prove a decisive winner. They can take the floating vote of the TRS and rise to around 30% of the vote on their own, but they face two problems. The first is that they TDP is seen as an Andhra party - which means that their rise will be bitterly contested by the hardcore Telangana folks, who will never let their state be ruled by the hated Andhra-ites. This was reflected in the current elections, where the TDP's vote share was actually below the BJP's in the western and northern districts like Adilabad, Karimnagar, and Nizamabad. The second is that they have no clear cut leadership that they can project for CM-ship. Their CM candidate will have to break away from the influence of CBN and chart an independent course of his own in his state, even to get the floating vote (forget the T hardliners vote - they will not only not vote for the TDP, they may even shy away from voting a TDP ally). This, by the way, is what people like ShyamSP-ji are hoping - that people will go back to voting on caste lines in the next elections. But that is not a very likely phenomenon, in my opinion. There is a consensus, particularly in the western and northern districts, that the state must never be ruled again by Andhra-ites. But just as the BJP will not die as long as there is communal tension, the TDP is also not going to die in the foreseeable future. The Andhra folk in Telangana are a significant minority, and as long as they are there, the TDP will remain as the representative of their interests. No other party seems capable of threatening their dominance among the Andhra people.

BJP - The BJP did not win a single seat outside the Greater Hyderabad areas. it is strong only where there is communal tension, or where it has poached leaders from other parties (mainly the TDP, for now). Almost all the BJP leaders outside the communally polarised regions of Greater Hyderabad, and Nizamabad are TDP defectors (Payal Shankar in Adilabad, Padakanti Rama Devi in Mudhole, Dr. Nagam Janardana Reddy in Mahabubnagar, etc). Even the TDP defectors have come in regions where the TDP has outraged the T-supporters, and who need to find another home. The BJP has been long associated with the Telangana agitations, so they are very acceptable to the Telangana supporters. If the TRS fails, and the Congress star wanes (both are very possible), it is the BJP that is best positioned to take their vote. Also, the BJP has no real baggage, so except for the minorities vote, it can, theoretically speaking, try to get everyone's votes. Currently, the BJP has ~10% of the vote, the TDP has another 15% of the vote. The BJP has several Telangana afficionados in its ranks, while the TDP has several United Andhra, TDP only protagonists in its. Consequently, the BJP+TDP will come to ~5% less than what the BJP and TDP will get individually.

The numbers would suggest that the BJP attack the Congress vote bank and finish it off. While that is theoretically possible, the BJP runs into a real practical problem. The BJP is the junior partner in the TDP-BJP alliance in Telangana. Consequently, if anyone becomes the CM from this alliance, the person is going to be from the TDP. In this situation, the BJP is going to find it tough to grow - why would anyone want to join a junior partner? The Reddies and the STs, whom the BJP can technically poach from the Congress vote bank, will come only if they see a future for themselves in the BJP. There is little benefit for them to campaign for a TDP CM (and the animosity between Reddies and Kammas is severe). So, if BJP keeps the alliance with the TDP, it will find it hard to grow. But discarding the alliance is not a certainty that the BJP can grow - after all, the BJP has failed to grow when it was alone. Further, it is the TDP and TRS base (the OBCs and the T supporters) who are easily compatible with the BJP, than the Reddies, who have a long history of association with the Congress. Taking the Reddy vote may prove harder than taking the OBC or T-supporter vote.

Currently, there are four parties that are vying for political space in Telangana - the Congress, the TRS, the TDP and the BJP. There is not enough space for all four to exist. It is the TRS and TDP vote that is more easy for the BJP to take, rather than the Congress vote (both the SCs and the minorities will be hard for the BJP to woo). The TRS and the Congress can both be killed completely (one of them, but not both will die). The TDP and the BJP can be marginalised, but they will always have a presence of around 5-10%. Which will die and which will live remains to be seen.

[ramana]

I am wondering if it was a good idea to club the two states in one thread. What we see is the descent into chaos in Telangana and hardly any coverage of the developments in AP.

Looks like atleast till KCR era is over Telangana needs its own thread.

There is too much bitterness in KCR even after attaining power and his own domain.

[ShyamSP]

^^^
A lot of annoucements were there today on AP side.

- 14 ports and 3 international airports
- Vizag as mega IT hub and 4 more IT hubs
- A lot of tax concessions to create 5 lakh jobs (not sure but in 5 years I think)
- Anna (referring NTR) Canteens like Amma Canteens in Tamilnadu
- All temple governing bodies are canceled (some BJP direction here)
- metro train system in Vizag, Vijaywada-guntur, and some other place.
- Water-tree projects to reduce water deficits

Apart from government projects, huge local private investments on pipeline. Some of the development plans are really super-duper. If Government can execute its plan well, private development will take off huge.

Except for rain-fall and agriculture issues, there is a lot of dynamism * in AP. One thing is this hope needs to be turned into reality.

* Based on observations in Hyderabad, Vijayawada, Nellore, and Tirupati

[muraliravi]

Currently, there are four parties that are vying for political space in Telangana - the Congress, the TRS, the TDP and the BJP. There is not enough space for all four to exist. It is the TRS and TDP vote that is more easy for the BJP to take, rather than the Congress vote (both the SCs and the minorities will be hard for the BJP to woo). The TRS and the Congress can both be killed completely (one of them, but not both will die). The TDP and the BJP can be marginalised, but they will always have a presence of around 5-10%. Which will die and which will live remains to be seen.

Spot on. Though i think most of the minority vote is with MIM as 50% of TG muslims live in hyd area. So i think cong vote is little easier to poach as their 25% has a good chunk of hindu vote.

[Muppalla]

Either a changed BJP or TDP can take the opposition space in TG. The congress in TG is up for grabs. BJP has to change a lot to take its chances.

[ShyamSP]

Either a changed BJP or TDP can take the opposition space in TG. The congress in TG is up for grabs. BJP has to change a lot to take its chances.

Best is BJP to take TRS space. BJP and TDP whoever can grab INC. New Reddy-TDP strategy by TDP just like successful Kapu-TDP in Seemandhra is to grab INC Reddies.

In AP, there is no use of accusing INC as it doesn't exist any more. So now for each TRS statements, they are equally mad at BJP including losing confidence on Modi as they are not talking any thing, esp on Andhra-targeting issues.

[Rony]

MHRD to pay tribute to Pingali Venkayya on its new website

Pingali Venkayya, freedom fighter and designer of the National Tri-Colour, will find a mention on the new website of Union Human Resource Development Ministry to be launched on August 14.

Union Minister for Human Resource Development Smriti Zubin Irani today said that Venkayya's birth anniversary was celebrated today and the reminiscence of the event will be put on the website of HRD.

Sursagar Society of Delhi Gharana had organised an evening on the eve of his birthday to tribute Pingali Venkayya.

"As far as my authority permits, I can only say that on August 14 we will launch the new website of MHRD in which we will mention the reminiscence of this evening for our country," she said.

Irani said she will request the schools of CBSE that students should write an essay on Pingali Venkayya so that they get to know more about him.

"For the last six decades or more, innumerable citizens, especially members of the armed forces, have laid down their lives to keep the Tiranga flying.

"A national treasure, the Indian national flag represents India's long struggle for freedom. Gandhiji has said that it is essential for us Indians to recognise the common flag, to live for and to die for.

"I am extremely grateful today that an honour and a tribute is being given to Sri Pingali Venkayya ji," said the Union HRD Minister.

The minister also narrated the meaning to each feature of the flag as put by Dr Radhkrishnan in the constituent assembly and said "the words of Radhakrishnan resonates even today in all of us Indians but the man who designed our national flag is a man that our generation knows very little about.

[ramana]

Smriti Irani is quoted as saying:

Irani said she will request the schools of CBSE that students should write an essay on Pingali Venkayya so that they get to know more about him

I think a thread in strat forum to honor this great man who designed the Tiranga is most appropriate.

I also suggest member do the same exercise of writing essays on him and what the Tiranga represents to them.

When did they first see the flag?
What does it mean to them?
What memories it evokes or triggers?

One can add "Vande mataram", Jana Gana Mana and Lata Didi's rendering of Sare Jahan Se Accha.

And bonus is how the faith and resolve got revived after 1977 and 2014 elections!!!!

[Hari Seldon]

Now here's an idea for KCR and co.

Reintrodue the Nizam's currency (see below for a jhalki...)



Has all the right sekular markings on it to make it an instant electoral suckcess, seems like...

[devesh]

Either a changed BJP or TDP can take the opposition space in TG. The congress in TG is up for grabs. BJP has to change a lot to take its chances.

Best is BJP to take TRS space. BJP and TDP whoever can grab INC. New Reddy-TDP strategy by TDP just like successful Kapu-TDP in Seemandhra is to grab INC Reddies.

In AP, there is no use of accusing INC as it doesn't exist any more. So now for each TRS statements, they are equally mad at BJP including losing confidence on Modi as they are not talking any thing, esp on Andhra-targeting issues.

the bold portion is interesting.

nageshks ji, you can see clearly why following the above poster's bolded suggestion would be a disaster for BJP, don't you?

if BJP takes up TRS space, it ensures that TDP gets to perennially keep Kosta as its fiefdom and keep it under the thrall of regional politics for at least another generation. no wonder such suggestions keep coming up from the obvious sources.

BJP should not and WILL NOT take up TRS space. that much I know for sure. they will continue as they are. no major splashes in either region.

this is a waiting game. BJP is waiting. INC is wondering what to do. Jagan is in vanvas and trying to regroup. TRS and TDP are the only active players right now. in many ways, TRS already blinked first in this waiting game.

TDP has made the astute calculation that they cannot imitate KCR in Kosta. this boxes them up. keep "neutral" for now gives them more leverage with BJP. there are solid calculations for what they are doing. they will only go the KCR-way IF, and ONLY IF, they eventually are faced with a situation where they know for a fact that the "TDP Ideology" is in retreat. KCR-strategy is a purely defensive one. TDP thinks it still has room to maneuver. if and when they loose that confidence, the Seema-jingoes on BRF will get their wish: you will have TDP boisterously abusing TG and TG-people, just like KCR dishes out obscenely to SA-folks.

[Shanmukh]

the bold portion is interesting.

nageshks ji, you can see clearly why following the above poster's bolded suggestion would be a disaster for BJP, don't you?

if BJP takes up TRS space, it ensures that TDP gets to perennially keep Kosta as its fiefdom and keep it under the thrall of regional politics for at least another generation. no wonder such suggestions keep coming up from the obvious sources.

Very interesting points you make, Devesh-ji. While you are absolutely right that the BJP should not, and hopefully will not try to play the T-hardliner role, as of now, the BJP hardly even exists in Kosta (or anywhere else in SA, for that matter). I don't see Haribabu or even Puran doing anything to build up the party. In fact, much will depend on Modi and CBN's actions vis-a-vis Jagan. As long as Jagan is around, I doubt that the BJP can make much headway in SA (anywhere in SA, for that matter).

However, TRS also got a lot of floating vote, mainly because many people wanted to give it a chance. This vote, along with the T-moderates vote, the BJP can take, I think. Would like to hear your thoughts. I doubt that even T-moderates will ever vote the TDP. The Telangana Drohi Party (as it is widely called in the western districts) has lost a lot of its sheen in Telangana.

BJP should not and WILL NOT take up TRS space. that much I know for sure. they will continue as they are. no major splashes in either region.

Agreed. Also, BJP is the junior partner in both SA and T, and has no real claim to fame on its own. It is doubtful they can make a splash, even if they want to, in either region.

[RamaY]

Now KCR wants to have August 15 celebrations in Golconda fort, like they are doing it on Red Fort

This is so chanikiyan at so many levels

[Muppalla]

Devesh garu,

I will read ShyamSP's post with positivity with respect to BJP, TDP, TRS and we all should be blind focused in the development of TG state. Once we remove the emotions and sentiments out of picture, if you see the ground, the BJP in TG is more on the side of hardline Telangana. Hardline Telangana means in no-nonsense language throw out the Andhra folks from Greater Hyderabad region. Rest of the TG region is as good as irrelevant at this point of time though a lot of Andhras live everywhere.

The predicament from TG-BJP is it can't be extremely overt like TRS/KCR as it is a national party and it values a Bharat that is for everyone and for decades it is opposing special category ART-370 to JK. However, it cannot escape the glaring open arms to TRS during the decade of TG separate statehood agitation. It is a fact to be recorded - BJP, TRS are part of T-JAC and they are still part of T-JAC led by Kodandaram. Both TDP and INC are not part of T-JAC.

Now the situation is that it will take a very long time to get rid of Andhras from Greater Hyderabad region. May be if a large scale aggression is plotted and implemented, it will still take couple of decades. Primarily both BJP and TRS have succeeded in one thing and made all Andhras as vote block (before they were voting on traditional caste/ideological lines) and the Andhra vote is solidly going to TDP. Today, in Greater Hyderabad, the image of BJP is exactly same as TRS.

There are two paths for BJP:
(1) Take over TRS but develop TG with a proper vision. This way there is no change to its path of last decade. [Heart and head at the same place]
(2) Completely overhaul TG-BJP. Make a very strong urbane Kamma, Kapu or Reddy leaders in Greater Hyderabad as Hyd leadership and woo the Andhras by assuring all that TG-sentimental-clever-folks hate. In conjunction build a caste space (Reddys+OBCs) that is anti-TRS in districts. This way you have a strong TG politics. However, this is a huge back-stab to TG-sentiment. [Head taking over heart]

For TDP, there are no distractions in TG. It will try all combinations where it will have acceptability as an Andhra party that is trying to capture TG space. Fundamentally for TDP, it has to get it out of Telangana Drohi Party branding and for it nothing to lose and any combination is fine and it can spend the money if there is a way.

If you read ShyamSP garu's post, I will read it as someone making head work over heart is extremely difficult. Hence BJP may succeed in trying to take space of TRS. However, if it succeeds of overthrowing TRS and be aggressive Telangana bhumiputra type then once in power, it does not need to do visionless-crap like KCR. It can do what is required to develop the state and keep away from unnecessary distractions. That is also good to keep the coastal lobbies in control (not as a hate but with genuine filters).

If it does not take (1) but take (2) then there is no difference from the plan of TDP. We can call it any number of ways to our satisfaction but in the end it is same.

The fundamental point in India as we see year after year is that it is more of investment driven development and state is just creating an environment for investment. The TG brand of let us get rid of coastal lobby is not a prudent thinking. It has to find ways to control and use it for its good. The top investors in India in terms of wealth are Marwari, Gujarati and believe it or not and third is definitely the Telugu coastal folks. The TG state cannot sustain with the current mindset. It is okay to use such a mindset to get a separate state to get control but it is not okay for its own good to continue the same. Telugu coastal folks has tonnes of money. it should know how to use it and grow. I personally think the educated elite and specifically TG-Brahmins have to bring a jagruti in the thought process. There is no huge anti-b stuff in TG and they should utilize. Remember the days of Nizam and the folks who are unsung but the movers and shakers of that era who had fought.

[Muppalla]

In fact, much will depend on Modi and CBN's actions vis-a-vis Jagan. As long as Jagan is around, I doubt that the BJP can make much headway in SA (anywhere in SA, for that matter).

I told several times consistently on these threads that Jagan will not win. I said the same even when all the surveys were projecting the same. Some folks have even asked me what I was smoking

I am again telling here that Jagan will not be there and he will and his YSR brand politics will end and EJism will be junked. Reddys are rulers from ages and has perseverance to stay out and comeback. There are several politically savvy Reddys who either stuck to INC or joined even TDP but did not go with Jagan. Jagan == Reddys is as good as over.

Another aspect that TDP and Kammas have shown a huge change and that is they definitely are in a business mode of "let us share". Here CBN so far ensured an equal footing and win-win to all elites. He has created a structure so far so that a Mudragada Padmanabham or a KCR won't emerge. But we have to see how the five years will go.

But if at all any mistakes occur from CBN, the only party that will rise in AP will be BJP. The BJP on the AP side is better placed with so many past diggajas of INC ready to get there on Modi's bandwagon. We may be critical of a lot as scum but if they change clothes they will could be acceptable. The names that are making rounds are Chiranjeevi, Kasu Krishna Reddy, Kotla Surya Prakash Reddy. The Pawan Kalyan can come out of TDP shadow and can become purer Modi-ite.

As long as CBN and kammas behind TDP are on a "let us share" mode he will prevail but any past comes back then it will be BJP Vs TDP.

[devesh]

Muppalla, your strategy is a defeatist one for BJP. it also leaves the crucial East Coast perennially to regional forces. I cannot accept that.

we cannot repeat the mistake of Marathas. we also cannot become confined like Vijayanagara was.

No, that is not acceptable. the division of the Telugu speaking regions, whether transient or permanent, cannot be allowed to let old weaknesses persist. BJP taking up TRS space is a suggestion from an embittered person.

also, I'm confident that under Modi's leadership, BJP will not commit that blunder. not just Modi; many others like Amit Shah or Gadkari or others do not wish to see that happen. Swaraj is an isolated case who proved herself to be incapable of organizing BJP's rise in the region, anyways, so she's a spent force on that account.

[devesh]

also please note that I'm not trying to be harsh towards you. I just find it hard to accept sometimes that everything is packaged into "profits are everything" type arguments.

[ShyamSP]

Muppalla, your strategy is a defeatist one for BJP. it also leaves the crucial East Coast perennially to regional forces. I cannot accept that.

we cannot repeat the mistake of Marathas. we also cannot become confined like Vijayanagara was.

No, that is not acceptable. the division of the Telugu speaking regions, whether transient or permanent, cannot be allowed to let old weaknesses persist. BJP taking up TRS space is a suggestion from an embittered person.

also, I'm confident that under Modi's leadership, BJP will not commit that blunder. not just Modi; many others like Amit Shah or Gadkari or others do not wish to see that happen. Swaraj is an isolated case who proved herself to be incapable of organizing BJP's rise in the region, anyways, so she's a spent force on that account.

Crucial East Coast is not your father's to accept or reject.

At least one generation INC or BJP is not going to be in AP, at least Coastal, mindset. If anything they are giving credit to Venkaiah Naidu as person and not to party BJP. Just like T-BJP, AP-BJP walahs are also bozos.

This is from one AP voter who voted for BJP
"Edo TDP kosam vallaku vesam saar lekapothe vallu aa Congress valla laga yedhavale". (For TDP sake we voted for BJP other wise they are also idiots like Congress)

[devesh]

Muppalla, your strategy is a defeatist one for BJP. it also leaves the crucial East Coast perennially to regional forces. I cannot accept that.

we cannot repeat the mistake of Marathas. we also cannot become confined like Vijayanagara was.

No, that is not acceptable. the division of the Telugu speaking regions, whether transient or permanent, cannot be allowed to let old weaknesses persist. BJP taking up TRS space is a suggestion from an embittered person.

also, I'm confident that under Modi's leadership, BJP will not commit that blunder. not just Modi; many others like Amit Shah or Gadkari or others do not wish to see that happen. Swaraj is an isolated case who proved herself to be incapable of organizing BJP's rise in the region, anyways, so she's a spent force on that account.

Crucial East Coast is not your father's to accept or reject.

At least one generation INC or BJP is not going to be in AP, at least Coastal, mindset. If anything they are giving credit to Venkaiah Naidu as person and not to party BJP. Just like T-BJP, AP-BJP walahs are also bozos.

This is from one AP voter who voted for BJP
"Edo TDP kosam vallaku vesam saar lekapothe vallu aa Congress valla laga yedhavale". (For TDP sake we voted for BJP other wise they are also idiots like Congress)

oh ShyamSP bhai, I knew I could get you to react to that one.

but let's not talk about our fathers and their fathers. the issues are not about our fathers' jagirs or pattas. it is about nation and beyond. your embittered soul spewed out that suggestion that BJP should take up TRS space. I merely stated that BJP is not about to fall for that gratuitous advice. the TDP hands are clever. but some of the foot soldiers are too engrossed in their myth of BJP 'foolishness'. No, BJP knows when it's being taken for a ride, just as it knows the source of such suggestions which want it to obscenely jump into TRS space.

[Muppalla]

also please note that I'm not trying to be harsh towards you. I just find it hard to accept sometimes that everything is packaged into "profits are everything" type arguments.

I don't take it that way. But I am trying to find an instance where if development/profits are not linked to civilizational vision then how can a kingdom or a government survive. You don't want to go even Marathas or even Vijayanagara way then what model you want? Even if such an idealistic thing existed in the past and to reach that goal from where we are what are the steps? I mean to reach the final step you have to climb several steps.

In a non-ideal world what is an optimum model? Bring money/investments and growth to the door steps, make sure folks don't fell into traps of Ummah/EJ and build self confidence. This is what NaMo or BJP model is at this time. This is exactly what Gujarat model was. It is all about Gujarati pride of "we are inclusive of all of India" , develop, invest and govern well.

Let us say TG hates coastal and all coastal folks/lobbies are removed lock stock barrel. Then what are next steps to make TG happy? My entire problem is there is not a definition or a list of what they want. Forget the politicians/naxals and rhetoric generators. In real world what they want?

[Muppalla]

This is from one AP voter who voted for BJP
"Edo TDP kosam vallaku vesam saar lekapothe vallu aa Congress valla laga yedhavale". (For TDP sake we voted for BJP other wise they are also idiots like Congress)

We can't take one voter stuff. However, even for AP it is better for BJP to rise even for opposition sake as opposed to continuation of Jagan. The earlier Jagan exits better for AP. Otherwise, the dark lord will always hover over you. Let everyone who opposes TDP flock BJP and hope Jagan goes to jail.

[devesh]

where did I say anything about "removing" coastals? or making "TG happy"? where are you getting this from. please don't put words in my mouth. I'm not sure where you're getting all these things from.

you are committing the same mistake that our embittered soul is committing: personalizing an issue that is far beyond personal politics.

I'm not even sure what your point is. the question of BJP's future in both these regions is muddled. and ShyamSP's suggestion of BJP jumping into TRS shoes is disaster. more importantly, it makes the mistake of thinking both these regions will remain on this trajectory forever.

[Muppalla]

^^^
I am not saying as you said. I am saying that myself as an assumption..

[johneeG]

It seems to me that the plan from kongi side is to use Maha+KTK+T as the hibernation. So, Maha elections are very important. This is like a neo-Bahmani(neo-Nizaami) except the Dilli is under saffron instead of green.

For the coast, the plans seem to be Dhravida-naadu. The split of AP seems to have re-gained life after the death of pirabhakaran. This is the reverse of Vijayanagara. Imagine a X-ist Vijayanagara sorrounded by 3 malsIc entities and saffron dilli...

I think NaMo party needs to take more pro-active role. The first step would be to take over T. Then, using the influence in T, they can gain ground on coast and seema. Using that they can spread to TN and Kerala.

The division of AP is similar to division of Maha. So, to understand the correct modus operandi in T, one has to study Guj. What did saffron party do in Guj? They will have to do the same in T.

But, the problem for the T is: Both Guj and Maha have a coast. T does not have any coast. This is a very serious impediment. Guj had a good business class. T does not have it.

But, there are also similarities: Guj and T are both arid areas with water and electricity problems. NaMo was successful in solving water and electricity woes of Guj. So, he can implement same plans for T(and seema).

Two persistent problems for T will be: electricity and water. Water is going to be bigger problem. The long term solution is to build lakes to harvest rain water. For electricity, many sources have to be explored.

Without supplying electricity and water, T cannot be developed.

Coast is ideally placed for development due to good agricultural land and sea. The main problem for the coast will be integration with the hinterlands.

Seema has water problems just like T. Infact, its more intense. The solution is to do what NaMo did to solve water problems of Kutch.

One all-time hit formula for saffron party is Hindhuthva. Hindhuthva will always get support base if it is properly mixed with the local issues. And this becomes more attractive to people whenever all other parties go on non-Hindhu appeasement binge.

Link to a post 1
Link to a post 2

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Devesh saar,
what is wrong with the idea of BJP taking up TRS space? I think your objection is that once BJP takes TRS space, it cannot grow in non-T areas. But, I think that this is not necessarily a right assessment. Infact, BJP will be in a better position to grow in non-T Thelugu areas if it has solid presence in T areas and vice versa.

To grow in T, BJP will need to be a no nonsense Hindhuthva party with development credentials.

I think in 10 yrs time, T should be BJP vs TDP if things go right. Then, BJP will be ideally placed to grow in rest of south-Bhaarath.

Anyway, global players seem to be involved. And even the geo-politics at global level seems to be very fluid.

[RamaY]

The Xtian threat is alive and well in Andhra.

Today there is a news that a school teacher beat the children for wearing Kasi-Tradu (saffron thread around wrist) and cursing his bad luck to have to teach children about SitaDevi.

The SC/ST/BC reservations combined with Xtian conversions is a very bad thing to happen to Indian Education system. Getting sub-par professionals in any field is bad, but them in teaching profession is disastrous to the nation.

[ShyamSP]

This is from one AP voter who voted for BJP
"Edo TDP kosam vallaku vesam saar lekapothe vallu aa Congress valla laga yedhavale". (For TDP sake we voted for BJP other wise they are also idiots like Congress)

We can't take one voter stuff. However, even for AP it is better for BJP to rise even for opposition sake as opposed to continuation of Jagan. The earlier Jagan exits better for AP. Otherwise, the dark lord will always hover over you. Let everyone who opposes TDP flock BJP and hope Jagan goes to jail.

It is not one voter but his statement is summary of mindset of many. I have spoken to the richest person and lower class person of a town to see any class difference on this but don't see anything.

Basically INC and BJP broke the trust. I'm experiencing now what broken trust is as that is forcing me to do rounds to T-Coastal-RS like dog for a few weeks recently. BJP has a chance to redeem if they do something good to AP during this time but INC is gone case. In AP, current mindset is TDP and YCP. BJP can't take core of YCP BTW. Only way YCP can be gone is if Jagan goes to jailkhana.

[gpati]

"TDP Ideology"

What is the core ideology of TDP?

TDP has got a big problem. The youth radicals who fueled TDP's growth in 80's, Naxals in 60's, and Communists in 20's are no longer with it. They are looking at Pawan Kalyan but he appears to be an old school left wing radical. So, he may stay away from Radical Hindtuva and he will fail. If BJP projects Radical Hindutva, it will do well in Coastal Andhra and even Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Radical Hindutva = Radical, egalitarian, and nontraditional.

[Vayutuvan]

Looks like atleast till KCR era is over Telangana needs its own thread.

ramana garu: I have no idea about others but I vote for a split. Of course, majority rules.

[Vayutuvan]

johneeG: A humble request - could you please use ITRANS transliteration conventions for telugu words instead of your own convention which has more ambiguities than ITRANS? For example,

draviDa will be correctly transliterated as opposed to the following four which also have valid telugu transliterations.

dhravida
dhraviDa
Dhravida
DhraviDa

Otherwise carry on.

[Hari Seldon]

Meanwhile T shootiyapanti continues unabated...

Posters in Hyderabad hospital warn Andhra origin doctors to flee Hyderabad to their native villages

[member_28674]

What ails BJP in Telangana(or AP for that matter) is a leader with proven administrative credentials.

If BJP thinks it can fly into the Assembly building without any cadre whatsoever. Who is going to run its agenda? How is it going to align with the people's aspiration of irrigation needs and jobs? It needs active leaders in districts. Atleast 2 or 3 if not all of them initially. And these leaders should potray themselves as harbingers of development by encouraging industry.

There is no other way. Hindutva can only get them votes in urban centers. But it's the rural populace that matters.

And that is where the problem is.. It is a long term project of 10-15 years of dedicated people oriented work.

There is no other ideology that it can pick and fight on. T-Cong is already gearing up to play that strong oppositions role.
Recent reports of power woes faced by farmers in rural-T suggest so..

[SrinivasK]

Agree with pkiran above. While we do want BJP to grow in TG/AP, it just does not have the leadership AND grass root level cadre to make that happen anytime soon.

It must be a 10 year project and preferably should go alone while it does this. At the national level BJP already has more than 50% of the seats. Even though TDP may not like it, BJP should go alone in TG. At some point, the TRS/MIM actions in the state will warrant a reaction in the state and BJP should be in a position to take the fullest advantage at that point. TDP should focus just on AP.

[Yagnasri]

I have worked most of my youth in BJP in AP that is upto 1998. Huge RJB mobilisation was done by us and yet BJP failed to take off. BJP central leadership allowed BJP to die there for the sake of taking CBN support. CBN ensured BJP lose all its shine and become irrelavent. Come 2004 he became secular and parted ways with BJP. Venayya is also party of Pro Kamma gang in BJP and cared little for the growth of BJP there.

Now I have little hope of finding a suitable leader. Present lot of BJP people seriously lack vision and leadership quality.

There is no need to split the thread. At lease not in near future. Huge dramas will be there from time to time. Just wait and see.