Geopolitical thread

[ramana]

Atirji, Your conclusion of exponential drop is validated by the long view curve posted by Suraj. Note the decline from 1700s to 1973.

its a wonder there was the so called Hindu rate of growth at all.

[Suraj]

Keep in mind that the graph x-axis is not uniform scale. For approximately 3/4ths of the last two millenia, India had the world's largest economy. The steepness of the drop is not as visible without a fixed time-scale x-axis. I would request someone to create a chart with the same data above, but with a fixed time scale x-axis, for a better visual reference. Please post it online and link it here, and then link it anywhere else possible, to disseminate it.

[pradeepe]

India to be part of the SCO. This literally tips the scales eastward.

modi-leads-india-to-the-silk-road

[Rony]

India to be part of the SCO. This literally tips the scales eastward.

modi-leads-india-to-the-silk-road

Now, even a commie like MKB is singing peans of Modi ?

[SSridhar]

India to be part of the SCO. This literally tips the scales eastward.

modi-leads-india-to-the-silk-road

This may be premature like the award of MFN to India by Pakistan three years back.

Anyhow, Russia has been solidly backing India's admission into the SCO. In October 2013, when Ma Mohan Singh met Putin in Moscow, the joint statement made a strong pitch for India's membership in SCO [along with UNSC & NSG]. All said and done, Russia does not trust China, though it has been forced by circumstances now to roll out a red carpet for the Chinese, and would therefore like a balance.

[svinayak]

India to be part of the SCO. This literally tips the scales eastward.

modi-leads-india-to-the-silk-road

Now, even a commie like MKB is singing peans of Modi ?

http://news.rediff.com/slide-show/2009/ ... ilemma.htm
Check the last para.

[Prem]

India will help shape a new world order in 21st century: US
ChamcHindu Link: Bagel & Belna Bandhan

Describing India as one of the most significant countries in the world, U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has said the world’s largest democracy will help shape a “new world order” that is emerging in this century. “When you look at the world today, and you’re all quite familiar with this, that India not only represents one of the most significant countries by any measurement in the world today, but will help shape a new world order that is emerging in this young century,” Mr. Hagel told reporters travelling with him to India.
“The relationship between the United States and India certainly for our interests, for U.S. interests, and I think for India’s interests, as well as the Asia Pacific, but also global interests, is important,” he said. “Where we can find common interests, where we can share areas that help promote our own countries’, our own economies’ stability, security, peace, trade, technology,” he said, adding that the point of his trip here is to take advantage of the opportunity to meet with a new Indian government. Recalling his last trip to India in 2008 as an American Senator, Mr. Hagel said, “In those meetings in 2008, it was pretty clear then that the potential for India and what they were evolving toward was going to be very important for our future.” “When you look at the region itself, South Asia, the instability that lies to the west of India, and a different kind of a world that lies to their east, and their south, and their north, they all represent different kinds of challenges for India,” he said. “The sooner we can find ways, the United States and India, to participate in these areas of mutual benefit and also concern, I think the better as we see this world that is uncertain and complicated and dangerous and unpredictable continue to evolve,” he said.
He said big power stability and big power security have always been important in the world and their importance is not going to be diminished over the next few years. Mr. Hagel said his current India trip is to acquaint himself with the ground realities and that he would be more in listening mode. “This is an opportune time to spend a couple of days here listening, learning, and getting acquainted,” Mr. Hagel said. “Are there interests in other areas? We are doing more than we’ve ever done military-to-military with India with joint exercises. We want to continue to build on those exercises. We’ll talk about where we can expand the potential for joint exercises,” he said. A supporter of the India-U.S. civilian nuclear deal, Mr. Hagel said power and energy are going to be a specifically important driving force for oil-developing economies, emerging economies and growing economies. “That opportunity that I thought that was important for many reasons that the Bush administration opened up was about one example of where I think different kinds of initiatives can be explored with these two large democracies, one being the largest democracy in the world and the other being the oldest democracy in the world,” he said. “So India and the United States begin with a pretty solid framework of general understanding, especially of democratic values and principles, and that’s not an insignificant starting point in foreign policy or foreign relations,” he said.

[Rony]

The Big Lie Americans Tell Themselves : Stopping genocide has never been a core interest of the United States

[member_28638]

That graph doesn't tell what happened before 1820. This one does:

We were in decline long before the British came in. The Mughals were by no means helpful. The Chinese saw a major drop between the Ming and Qing dynasties, before recovering until the Qing themselves started stagnating. Comparing time horizons, they pretty much fell off a cliff as the Qing Empire unraveled. To their credit, they're recovering with equal vigor.

Roughly speaking the graph shows:

Mughal Rule: India's GDP fell from nearly 35 % to 25 %

British Rule: India's GDP fell from nearly 25 % to 0 %

Quite an eye opener!

[Philip]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... lane-crash
Brazilian presidential candidate Eduardo Campos killed in plane crash
Seven confirmed dead on private jet crashing in bad weather in Santos, south of São Paulo, leaving October election in disarray

Jonathan Watts in Rio de Janeiro
The Guardian, Wednesday 13 August 2014

Aircraft crash with Eduardo Campos Brazil
Smoke billows from a private aircraft which crashed in residential area of Santos, south of São Paulo. Seven people were killed including presidential candidate Eduardo Campos. Photograph: Luiz Fernando Menezes/Fotoarena/Corbis

Brazil's presidential election campaign was thrown into uncertainty on Wednesday when a private jet carrying the socialist party candidate, Eduardo Campos, crashed into a residential area near São Paulo.

Campos and the six other crew and passengers were killed in the accident, which occurred in bad weather as the Cessna plane was preparing to land.

The deaths prompted a wave of mourning across the country, which is likely to be followed by speculation about the effect on the presidential vote on 5 October.

The president, Dilma Rousseff, declared three days of official mourning for Campos, who she served alongside in the Lula government, who she had served alongside.

"Today we lost a great Brazilian, Eduardo Campos. We lost a great companion … from a young age he fought the good fight in politics as a congressman, minister and two-time governor of Pernambuco," she said. "My condolences to the families of all the victims of this tragedy."

Campos, a former Pernambuco governor with a business-friendly reputation, had shaken the political world by choosing the environmentalist Marina Silva as his running mate. The unlikely couple were in third place in the closely fought race to run Latin America's most populous and economically powerful nation. Silva – who was runner-up to Rousseff in the last election in 2010 – is now widely expected to head the campaign, though she has yet to comment.

Silva heard the news as she was recording a TV programme and immediately left the studio. Her political party, the Sustainability Network, said she was on her way to the crash site and expressed condolences on Twitter. "We are all shocked by the death of Eduardo Campos in the plane crash this morning," it said.

Other members of the campaign were on their way to the site. "We're stunned. It seems that there are no survivors … An irreparable loss," representative Julio Delgado told local media.

The plane came down in an urban area and crashed into a gymnasium. Images from the scene showed smoke rising from a building and crowds with umbrellas watching as firemen entered the site.

The number of casualties has yet to be confirmed. Six other people, including a press manager, journalist and official photographer, were on board the jet. Reporters said they found election material among the wreckage.

Campos is the grandson of Miguel Arraes, who was also governor of Pernambuco and spent 15 years in exile during the military dictatorship. The political blue-blood was also the youngest member of the first administration of the former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in which he served as science and technology minister.

The night before the crash he took part in a live interview on Globo TV in Rio de Janeiro that was expected to lift his polling figures.

"Alongside Marina Silva, I want to represent your frustration, your dreams and your desires for a better Brazil. We will not give up on Brazil. Here is where we will raise our children. Here is where we have to create a fairer society," he told viewers.

"He was one of the most talented public men of his generation. The whole country will be in mourning," said Vital do Rego, the president of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry."

The Brazilian Congress halted deliberations. "This is sad news for all Brazilians," federal deputy Izalci Ferreira told reporters.

Romario, the Brazilian World Cup winning striker who is now a successful politician, lamented what he said was a loss to the nation. "Under Eduardo Campo's leadership Brazil would definitely have had a better future," he said.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Guys came upon this Youtube channel Caspian Report.

Their report on India's superpower possibility was very cut and dried and realistic. Suggest you guys have a look.


Feedback/ Critique solicited.

[deejay]

^^^^ Really enjoyed the presentation. A fair neutral view. A non India could not be fairer. Some disagreements but then we all have our biases.

Specially, liked the internal challenges, border issues and the need for a strong navy.

But very poor understanding of Pakistan. Though they are right in keeping the focus of threat on China.

[Arjun]

^ There was some reference to Bangladesh and W. Bengal teaming up to form 'Greater Bangladesh' which was quite senile, but other that I thought it was a pretty good and thought-provoking effort.

[deejay]

^^^ Arjun ji, this idea has been discussed in Bangladesh and even in India. These 'Zorkers' also talk of including Assam, Tripura, Bihar, etc. This appears senile to me too, but if you are a foreigner, you would think -'yeah, all bengali- bengali no, so why not?' You would never link it to the saffron - green divide would you? Take a look at these links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Bangladesh
http://westbengalbelongstobangladesh.wordpress.com/

edit: The illegal immigration from BD is also linked to the greater BD theory.

[SSridhar]

Watched the report.

There are two parts in the report, one that deals with a brief history of the last 4 centuries of India and another an analysis of the current geopolitical situation.

I was happy that a non-Indian analysis referred to the 'Indian subcontinent' right through the presentation.

While the history part was fairly balanced (except for stating that culturally India was not united), the analysis part was quite flawed (though right in parts). It placed an undue weightage on Bangladesh and almost completely ignored Pakistan. With reference to China, it made a mention of Indian Navy having a lot of catching up to do which is not entirely accurate too. It did not cover many other aspects too that are important for such an analysis.

[Manish_Sharma]

^^^ LOL, she can dream on. Canucks hate the US and will never agree to be united with the US.

Arthur Hailey had wrote in late 50s or early 60s a novel called "In High Places", the novel was about why it is necessary for Canada to merge with US to survive the thermonuclear war against US. They keep changing reasons.

[deejay]

Watched the report.

There are two parts in the report, one that deals with a brief history of the last 4 centuries of India and another an analysis of the current geopolitical situation.

I was happy that a non-Indian analysis referred to the 'Indian subcontinent' right through the presentation.

While the history part was fairly balanced (except for stating that culturally India was not united), the analysis part was quite flawed (though right in parts). It placed an undue weightage on Bangladesh and almost completely ignored Pakistan. With reference to China, it made a mention of Indian Navy having a lot of catching up to do which is not entirely accurate too. It did not cover many other aspects too that are important for such an analysis.

My thoughts exactly in giving less time to the pakistani threat but in my view the BD issue is where we are severely exposed. The Chinese have really worked on the Bangladeshis and it is an imminent threat. The Chicken Neck or the Siliguri area is a very exposed area for us.

[Nikhil T]

Firstpost is reporting that Modi Govt will "block" Hurriyat separatists from meeting Pak envoy in Delhi tomorrow. This will be a much needed, strong display of will power! Either Hurriyat chooses to behave as Indian citizens and not talk with a foreign country about secession or else the GoI will intervene.

LINK

[Rony]

Europe's Malaise: The New Normal ?

Europe has been mired in an economic crisis for half a decade now. Germany is the economic engine of Europe, and it is expected that it will at some point pull Europe out of its crisis. There have been constant predictions that Europe may finally be turning an economic corner, but if Germany's economy is contracting (Berlin claims it will rebound this year), it is difficult to believe that any corner is being turned. It is becoming increasingly reasonable to believe that rather than an interlude in European prosperity, what we now see is actually the new normal. The key point is not that Germany's economy has contracted by a trivial amount. The point is that it has come time to raise the possibility that it could be a very long time before Europe returns to its pre-2008 prosperity and to consider what this means.

The German economy contracted despite indications that there would be zero economic growth. But the rest of Europe is faltering, too. France had zero growth. Italy declined by 0.2 percent. The only large European economy that grew was the United Kingdom, the country most skeptical of the value of EU membership. Excluding Ireland, which grew at a now-robust rate of 2.5 percent, no EU economy grew more than 1 percent. Together, the European Union scarcely grew at all.

Obviously, growth rate is not the full measure of an economy, and statistics don't always paint the full picture. Growth doesn't measure social reality, and therefore it is important to look at unemployment. And though Europe is fairly stagnant, the unemployment situation is truly disturbing. Spain and Greece both have around 25 percent unemployment, the level the United States reached during the Great Depression. While that's stunning, 15 of the 28 EU members have unemployment rates of more than 10 percent; most have maintained that high rate now for several years. More alarming, these rates are not falling.

Half of all EU residents live in four countries: Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy. The average growth rate for these countries is about 1.25 percent. Excluding the United Kingdom, their economies contracted by 0.1 percent. The unemployment rate in the four countries averages 8.5 percent. But if we drop the United Kingdom, the average is 9.2 percent. Removing Britain from the equation is not arbitrary: It is the only one of the four that is not part of the eurozone, and it is the country most likely to drop out of the European Union. The others aren't going anywhere. Perhaps the United Kingdom isn't either, but that remains to be seen. Germany, France and Italy, by population if nothing else, are the core of the European Union. They are not growing, and unemployment is high. Therefore, Europe as a whole is not growing at all, and unemployment is high.

Five to six years after the global financial crisis, persistent and widespread numbers like this can no longer be considered cyclical, particularly because Germany is running out of gas. It is interesting to consider how Germany has arrived at this point. Exports continue to grow, including exports to the rest of Europe. (That is one reason it has been so difficult for the rest of Europe to recover: Having lost the ability to control access to their markets, other European countries are unable to compete with German exports. It may be free trade, it may even be fair trade, but it is also a trade pattern that fixes failure in place.) Employment remains strong. The German financial system is viable. Yet consumer and corporate confidence is declining. As we look at the situation Germany is facing, confidence should be decreasing. And that in turn becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: German employment has been supported by exports, but there is a limited appetite for Germany's exports amid Europe's long-term weakness and a world doing better but still not well enough to float the German economy.

One of the things that should concern Germans is the banking system. It has been the obsession of the European financial elite, at the cost of massive unemployment, and there is the belief, validated by stress tests, that the financial system is sound. For me, there has been an ongoing mystery about Europe: How could it have such high unemployment rates and not suffer a consumer debt crisis? The climbing rate of unemployment should be hitting banks with defaulted mortgages and unpaid credit card debt. Given the fragility of the European financial system in the past, it seems reasonable that there would be heavy pressure caused by consumer debt.

The question that follows is political. If the economic premise of the European Union -- prosperity -- is cast into doubt, then what holds Europe together? This is particularly relevant as the fault line between Russia and the European Peninsula comes alive and as Europe is measuredly asserting itself in Ukraine. Poland's and Romania's interest in Ukraine is clear. Spain's interest is less obvious. The idea of pursuing common goals to preserve EU prosperity doesn't work when the bloc is economically crippled and when signs of divergence are already evident. These include British threats to withdraw from the European Union and the loss of common interests that united the countries when prosperous.

One of the most important signs of divergence is the emergence of anti-establishment and Euroskeptical parties, which did remarkably well in recent European Parliament elections. This political shift has been dismissed by many as merely the result of a protest vote rather than a harbinger of the future. In my view, protest votes of this breadth and magnitude are significant in and of themselves. They remind us that the most dangerous source of social unrest is not the young and unemployed but rather middle-aged men and women who have suffered unemployment and lost their investments. They live in a world of shattered hopes, convinced that others engineered their misfortune. The young throw rocks and then go home. The middle-aged and middle class, having lost their dreams with no hope of recovery, are at the heart of fascism and are the real threat posed by the new European reality.

Russia is important, and so is radical Islam. But the fate of Europe is a vital force that will shape the world. Russian power grows as Europe fragments. Europe has its own internal confrontation with Islam. With long-term sclerosis of the economy and persistent unemployment, how do the Europeans deal with the immigrants among them? How does the Continent accept open borders? The implications are profound, and it is time to consider that a Europe without growth, with high unemployment and with no way out might be the reality for a much longer time than anyone expected.

[svinayak]

Ultimate realist in Geopolitics
He understands that religion is part of geopolitics.

Dimitri Kitsikis (Greek: Δημήτρης Κιτσίκης; born 2 June 1935) is a Greek Turkologist, Professor of International Relations and Geopolitics.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimitri_Kitsikis

Dimitri Kitsikis, since the 1960s, has been the recognised theorist, first in Greece and then in Turkey, of the idea of a Greek-Turkish Confederation, which he has promoted by influencing statesmen, politicians, journalists, artists and thinkers in both countries.[26] His books in Turkish became best sellers in Turkey and were praised by the Prime Minister of Turkey.[27] He kept close ties with Prime Ministers Konstantinos Karamanlis senior of Greece and Turgut Özal[28] of Turkey as well as the Chinese leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.[29] His books in Greek created one of the greatest controversies ever encountered in Greek historiography. They were even debated in the Greek Parliament.[30] The well-established notion of Greeks enslaved by Turks, as well as a series of beliefs on the Ottoman Empire that had been traditionally taught in schools and universities throughout Greece, such as the story of the so-called "secret school," were strongly questioned.[31] While his father, Nikos Kitsikis, rector of the Polytechnical School, was a Leftist Member of Parliament, Senator and elected Mayor of Athens, Dimitri Kitsikis is averse towards the parliamentary system, which he regards as foreign to the Greek model of a government by the people or laocracy, Greek "λαοκρατία".[32]

He has been the initiator in France of the branch of the History of International Relations that deals with propaganda and pressure as a government weapon of foreign policy.[33] He also opened the way to the study of technocracy in international politics.[34] He has insisted that religion is an essential component of international politics and strove by conferences and other means to facilitate the collaboration between the four main religions of Judaism, Christianity, Islam and Hinduism.[35] He organised Orthodox dialogues with Iranian Shiites and Indian Hindus. He worked with Israeli Jews and fundamentalist Catholics from Quebec, where he, along with his students, produced the quarterly journal Aquila (eagle) which, with a double-headed eagle on the front cover promoted the Byzantine imperial idea amongst catholic circles.He also worked closely with the Fethullah Gülen Sunni Muslim Movement (See Gülen's "Dialog of Civilizations Platform"). But everywhere and at all times, the idea of a global hellenism is prevalent in his works and his teaching.[36]

He created a model[37] for a new approach of the three political ideologies of Liberalism, Fascism and Communism, and has published on the history of China. He is the founder of the branch of study known as Photohistory.[38]

[Neshant]

Now I wonder what other kind of terrorism Black Water has been engaged in around the planet on behalf of the US govt.

_____

US Government Repeatedly Threatening Reporter Who Exposed Blackwater With Arrest

100,000 sign up to support New York Times reporter James Risen who is facing jail.

By MintPress News Desk | August 19, 2014

If you blinked at the end of June, you may have missed one of the best pieces of journalism in 2014. The New York Times headline accompanying the story was almost criminally bland, but the content itself was extraordinary: A top manager at Blackwater, the notorious defense contractor, openly threatened to kill a US State Department official in 2007 if he continued to investigate Blackwater’s corrupt dealings in Iraq. Worse, the US government sided with Blackwater and halted the investigation. Blackwater would later go on to infamously wreak havoc in Iraq.

But what makes the story that much more remarkable is that its author, journalist James Risen, got it published amidst one the biggest legal battles over press freedom in decades – a battle that could end with the Justice Department forcing him into prison as early as this fall. It could make him the first American journalist forced into jail by the federal government since Judith Miller nearly a decade ago.

For years, the Justice Department, first under the Bush administration and now under Obama, has been aggressively pursuing Risen to testify against one of his alleged sources who is the subject of a leak prosecution. Risen’s most well-known scoop is the one that won him a Pulitzer Prize in 2006: exposing the Bush-era illegal warrantless wiretapping by the NSA, under threat of Espionage Act prosecution. But the Justice Department has been officially pursuing him about another story for years – a tale first published around the same time, in his book State of War.

http://www.mintpressnews.com/government ... st/195572/

[Neshant]

Sounds like a cover story.

Is CIA funding/funneling weapons to the Kurds to break away from Iraq, Iran, Turkey?

If so, a whole lot of tankers are going to go missing and weapons & "rebels" showing up out of nowhere.

_______

Disputed Kurdish oil tanker mysteriously goes dark off Texas coast

HOUSTON (Reuters) - A tanker near Texas loaded with $100 million of disputed Iraqi Kurdish crude has disappeared from satellite tracking, the latest development in a high stakes game of cat-and-mouse between Baghdad and the Kurds.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/disputed-kurd ... nance.html

[Philip]

http://news.usni.org/2014/09/04/opinion ... NI+News%3A
Opinion: Sunset for NATO?

By: Lt. Col. Donald Thieme, USMC
Published: September 4, 2014

President Barack Obama spent a night on the borders of Russia in Estonia, a country with a sizeable Russian minority, and from whence you truly can see Russia. In remarks a few hours ago, President Obama spoke not only to Estonia and NATO – but to the watchers just across the border in Russia when he said “”In this alliance, there are no old members or new members, no junior partners or senior partners — there are just allies, pure and simple. We will defend the territorial integrity of every single ally.”

On Wednesday he flew to Wales to lead the West in figuring out how to enforce borders, physically and strategically. The West must show a sense of strategic urgency in dealing with a resurgent Russia, or risk sliding into a rough “Cold Peace.”

Unfortunately, the U.S. is allowing itself to be consumed with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS or ISIL), the U.K is worried about the Scots leaving, France is, if not in shambles, then certainly making the Italian government look relatively effective, and Merkel is tired whilst the Poles are consumed with their own internal scandal.

As summer draws to a close, the days are still long and warm in eastern Europe — but there is an urgency in the air. September and early October is the ‘golden season’ in this region, but everyone hustles to complete their preparations for the winter, gather the harvest, stock the wood and prepare to settle in for a long season of short dismal days and biting cold.

This time of year is the “traditional” surge of combat operations and gain consolidation in Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Napoleon, Piłsudski, Manstein and others always push hard this time of year. 200 years ago, Napoleon tried to hold onto his gains in Europe; 100 years ago the Germans, French and Russians slogged it out trying to ‘win’ before winter. Now Putin (Russia) and Poroshenko (Ukraine) are engaged in the same wrestling match, racing against time and each other.

At stake is a ‘corridor’ from Mother Russia to Little Russia – Crimea. Currently, most everything that has to get to Crimea must go through Ukraine. That gives Ukraine leverage that Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t like. While sources are sketchy, it appears that all is not going as well in Crimea as the initial euphoria would have led ancient Rus to have expected; annexing a region with non-contiguous borders is a challenge. Now Russia has this in both Kaliningrad and Crimea.

Just as Putin’s Russia several years ago sought a land corridor to Kalingrad (Poland stridently resisted, and it was diplomatically defeated in detail) now they are seeking a land corridor to Crimea. Russia realizes that a full investiture of Donetsk and Luhansk will prompt a full-out war with Ukraine, so they are trying to ‘salami slice’ the problem. Russia’s ultimate goal: full access to Crimea, unfettered throughput along a Sea of Azov Luhansk, Torez, Mariapol corridor.

Once they have this, then they can fully deploy the energy and other resource weapons of economic power against Ukraine. Absent control over access to Crimea, Ukraine is in a very strategically compromised position – and Putin and Poroshenko both know it. Putin will then be able to threaten to make Ukraine go dark and cold, and because of other pipelines, all built over the last ten years for exactly this strategic capability, Western Europe will still get most of its energy resource requirement met without significant interruption.

Making the land-bridge connection between Russia and Crimea is a strategic necessity for Russia, and Ukraine is in the way. As long as they are not connected, Putin has to work, however uneasily, with Poroshenko. Take Ukraine out of the equation, and at least you can get to Crimea, and more importantly you take away Ukraine’s sole leverage over Russia at present.

At the same time, NATO is starting its summit this week. The EU just put in a new leadership couple – Poland’s Donald Tusk (a very western focused leader who finds confrontation and challenging Putin’s Russia to be so last century and who is likewise embroiled in a bitter political dispute at home) as President of the European Council and Italy’s Federica Mogherini as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (and vice-President of the European Commission).

Putin knew that these positions were up to rotate, and has sequenced his actions to simultaneously confront NATO and EU with a daring “race to the Sea” and daring the West do to anything about it. Much like September 1st 75 years ago – but with significantly more subtlety and using all organs of national power – access and a corridor are at the center of a potentially explosive European conflict. Europe got the response wrong last time – let’s hope this time when they meet in Wales they get it better.

That will be tough, with Afghanistan drawing down, and the regional economies of Europe still struggling to recover, the surge in ethno-nationalism, and myriad other domestic challenges that will more than overcome most any meaningful “appetite for adventure” as my British friends call it. Nonetheless, the European-Atlantic alliance must again re-invigorate itself to face this new (old) challenge. We need leadership from President Obama to support and shore up the regional leadership of Germany’s Angela Merkel (see Alison Smale’s article 19 August in the New York Times “German Leader Emerges as Key Figure in Ukraine Talks”) who has recently been described as the “pivotal leader on the Ukraine conflict.” We need a new strategy that examines closely what the long-term threats to Europe and the “West” are, and not only responds, but prepares to posture smartly, create opportunities, and exploit them pragmatically. Urgently, this may be the last best hope for the Obama administration to create a positive strategic legacy in foreign affairs, as noted by Anne Applebaum recently in the Washington Post.

Fashioning this “Cold Peace” can be built on dual pillars, starting with US economic power to taper the Federal Reserve’s monthly and quarterly “easing” funds. Slow down the sustained inflow of U.S. money, and the global market shudders (See: Foreign Affairs July/August 2014 “The Trouble with the Taper” by Benn Steil). Not a decision that should be taken lightly, but an option that is open to President Obama and the U.S. In concert with reduced dollar flows, keep up the targeted sanctions – they will not make everyone happy, but they will certainly frustrate Russia’s oligarchs, and keep up the pressure along the fiscal front. Simultaneously, we do not necessarily need Michele Flournoy’s “Return to Europe” basing construct, but we should certainly build policies that create a persistent presence. For example, we can ‘surge’ forces to Europe for Reforger-type exercise, as well as fashion more exercises in all spectrums of warfare competencies to demonstrate both capacity and resolve.

Russia has clearly thrown down the gauntlet; we don’t need to react, but we do need to respond and fashion a pragmatic peace with the Russians that allows room to bump and run on our many convergent interests. We don’t have to be friends, we can admit that perhaps the “Reset” was more aspirational than actual, but we do need to forge a new strategy, and force and new working relationship – otherwise it’s going to be a long strategic winter, and the harvest may not be very sustaining. We don’t have to solve Ukraine’s problems, but they do need to be addressed as part of a larger strategy. The response began in Tallinn Wednesday, and needs to continue in Wales.

[Philip]

Sushma Swaraj caught out! Global concern about a Scottish "Yes" vote.But seriously,it is a democratic vote and why is the global community worried? Scotland until 250-300 years ago WAS an independent kingdom! The UK is not a republic,one of the main reasons why the separatist momentum is so strong.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... hreat.html

By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
08 Sep 2014

An opinion poll lead for the Yes campaign for the first time is a wake-up call across the world on the future of Scotland and Britain's place in the world.
Independence: will Cameron resign as Prime Minister if Scotland votes to leave the Union? Cameron is the only party leader who truly understands capitalism
Free market-man: David Cameron has called for 'more enterprise, competition and innovation' - in effect, more capitalism

Most foreign states had previously taken a studiously diplomatic decision that the matter of Scottish independence was a matter for voters in the referendum.

However the diplomatic mask has begun to crack and India’s foreign minister has provided a glimpse of unexpressed feelings among policy makers around the globe.

Sushma Swaraj responded to a question about next week's vote in parliament with note of horror. “”God forbid!” she replied.

After officials had a word with the External Affairs minister, she quickly corrected herself, adding it was “up to Scotland to decide”.

The most forthright contributors to the Scottish debate have been the leaders of former colonies with sizeable Scottish populations.

Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper yesterday praised Stephen Harper, the prime minister, who last week called on the Scots follow the example of Quebec voters in 1995 by rejecting the separatist call.

“Turning to Quebec, Mr Harper suggested younger Quebeckers, including those who voted in the recent provincial election to turf the Parti Quebecois, do not see separation from Canada as a solution to pressing problems.

After crossing the Atlantic for the Nato summit, Mr Harper had said the Quebec population had decided its priorities were better addressed within Canada.

“I do believe at some point, people, particularly the younger generation, started to sit back and say the following things: we’ve been having this existentalist debate for 40 years and what is the resolution of this debate going to do about the things that actually matter in my life,” he said.

Tony Abbott, Mr Harper’s Australian counterpart, has also criticised the referendum as unnecessary and there is huge interest in the antipodes over the outcome of the vote.

The Sydney Morning Herald website yesterday said the post poll sell-off of the pound means sterling has lost 10 per cent of its value against the Australian dollar since January.

However the report quoted an economist as saying Scotland could create its own pound after independence and defend that currency’s link with sterling.

“The position of England and the rest of the union is ’we won’t share a currency with you; if you want to peg to us, then that’s up to you’,” said David Buckle, Fidelity Worldwide Investment’s head of quantitative research. “So Scotland would still have to issue and print its own currency. It would then be the new Scottish central bank’s responsibility to try and maintain that peg.”

The senior American commentator Paul Krugman sounded the alarm over the surge in support for independence under the headline “Scots, What the Heck?”.

In it, Mr Krugman urged Scots to “be afraid, be very afraid” of the economic consequences of independence.

After President Barack Obama expressed his hope that the United Kingdom would remain “strong, robust and united” during a visit to London, US officials have largely refrained from entering the debate.

The same is true in Brussels which now claims that it has a policy of not interfering in referendum, having earlier said Scotland would not have an automatic right to enter the EU on existing terms.

Earlier this year, Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President, warned that Scotland’s path to EU membership would be a rocky one and reminded the Scots that Spain, and others, blocked recognition of Kosovo’s independence for fear of encouraging separatism elsewhere.

Each EU country will have a veto over Scottish membership meaning that Scotland must satisfy the demands of everyone, including what is left of the UK, before joining the European bloc.

Resented UK opt-outs on the euro or special deals like Britain’s annual rebate from Brussels budgets will not be automatic and Scotland as a small country will struggle to get what it wants.

The question of Scotland’s currency will be critical, if the new country is not fully fledged part of sterling then it will have to create its own currency and commit to adopting the euro.

Mr Salmond’s threat to default on Scotland’s debt unless Britain allows it to stay in the pound has not endeared him to European capitals that have just endured a eurozone crisis.

Across the continent there are sharply divided views on the Scottish mood. Süddeutsche, a centrist German newspaper said the Scots were voting Yes to forestall an English-driven vote to leave the EU.

However its rival, Die Zeit took a different tack under a headline “ No tea for the English enemy”.

It said: “Scotland is gripped by an aggresive ethnic self centeredness which wants to subordinate everything foreign.”

All the reports noted that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government had not taken a position on the vote.

The Irish Times criticised the Dublin government’s failure to respond to events in Scotland, pointing out that the ramifications of another part of the British Isles going independent would be far reaching.

“It’s clear that the creation of a new independent state in the neighbouring island would make big waves in Ireland. But the Government has gone to extraordinary lengths to say as little as it can about the matter.

mere discussion in the Irish context of issues relevant to Irish people would not constitute an entreaty to Scots to vote either way,” a commentary said.

The questions raised for Ireland are highly sensitive, particularly in relation to Northern Ireland. Questions arise too as to whether an independent Scotland tackles Ireland on the corporate tax front. Also at issue is the matter of a Scottish state’s entry into the EU and objections arising in member states such as Spain, which would fear an emboldening of separatist sentiment in the Basque region.”

With planning under way for a mass rally of supporters of Catalonian indepence, Spain’s other hotbed of independence is minutely dissecting the Scottish electoral runes.

La Vanguardia, Catalonia’s Daily newspaper carries the poll surge story on its front page with the headline “London reacts with a plan for Scotland”, highlighting promises more political and fiscal autonomy before the “yes” advance and that the immigrant vote will be key.

Additional reporting by Tony Paterson in Berlin, Bruno Waterfield in Brussels, Dean Nelson in New Delhi, Fiona Govan in Madrid and David Lawler in Washington

[svinayak]

Finally the anarchy created by the jihadi has led HK to write a book where he points that global powers should maintain world order. This is step down from global dominance by hyper power which could control entire world.

WORLD ORDER
by Henry Kissinger
Hardcover: 432 pages
Publisher: Penguin Press HC, The (September 9, 2014)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1594206147
Throughout history, various civilizations have considered themselves to be the epicenter of the world and have defined various concepts of `order', extrapolating their principles to be globally relevant.

Mr. Kissinger takes us on a tour of various civilizations of the past including China, the Roman Empire, the spread of Islam, the formation of European states, and the post-WWII growing hegemony of the USA. He argues that there has never been a true world order because even the U.S. at the height of its power in the 50's did not want to, nor could, dominate the globe in a world of vastly different cultures and ideologies.

Kissinger views the disintegration of Arab nations into tribal units as ominous and compares this to the religious wars in Europe during the 16th and 17th centuries. And he observes that although the U.S. has often had an idealistic vision of world order, the U.S. wavers between post-WWII global extension and post-WWI withdrawal from foreign affairs. He analyzes and makes recommendations on how to build a new global order in a world filled with increasing ideological extremism and rapidly advancing technology.
Mr. Kissinger may be too optimistic that we will ever grow toward a unified order on the planet. The world may become increasingly multi-polar as more and more nations undergo technological and economic growth.



Kissinger's Counsel
In his new book World Order, the former Secretary of State offers a sweeping guide to the rise of the modern state system, and warns that a stable balance of power remains as crucial now as in the era of Westphalia.

His latest contribution amounts to a guide for the perplexed, a manifesto for reordering America’s approach to the rest of the globe. No doubt Russia, China and Iran may strike out on courses that seek to overturn the kind of Westphalian principles lauded by Kissinger. But as a means of apprehending international affairs—and of maintaining the delicate balance between power and idealism—Kissinger’s precepts are surely more valuable than ever. It is no accident that after the debacles of the past decade, Kissinger’s realism is starting to make something of a comeback. Now that the doctrines championed by his neocon detractors have largely come into disrepute, at least among the American public, realism is starting to receive more of a hearing.

Perhaps the return of realism should not altogether be surprising. In a sense, it has never gone away. For the tenets that Kissinger has studied and pursued amply merit the term classical, as they are timeless. Kissinger’s vision could help to shape a more tranquil era than the one that has emerged so far. He himself ends his work on a note of humility, observing that in his youth he was “brash enough” to believe he could pronounce on “The Meaning of History.” “I now know that history’s meaning,” he writes, “is a matter to be discovered, not declared.” It would be a pity if his counsel went unheeded.

[ramana]

He is wrong. The Westphalian state system is collapsing and we are seeing new large states with disordered areas round them.
we see this in history with collapse of all large state systems.

Look at UK which is on its way to become F UK!

67 years after losing India there is no Great nor United Britan.

[Philip]

So who effed up Libya? The West,especially the French. After defanging Ghadaffi who voluntarily gave up his WMD ambitions,embraced the West,was betrayed and backstabbed by those very same "friends". He fought them to his death,like a man of honour.

http://rt.com/news/186764-france-libya-terrorist-hub/
France urges new Libya intervention, calls it 'terrorist hub' on Europe's doorstep
Published time: September 10, 2014

The world must act in Libya as it is quickly turning into a major “terrorist hub” on Europe’s doorstep, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned. France played a key role in the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya that led to the current chaos.

It’s high time to “sound the alarm about the seriousness of the situation in Libya,” Le Drian said in an interview with Le Figaro newspaper.

“The south [of Libya] is a sort of hub for terrorist groups where they come to re-supply – including with weapons – and re-organize. In the north, the political and economic centers of the country are now at risk of falling under jihadist control,” he said.

Le Drian commented that the crisis-hit North African state was “the gateway both to Europe and the Sahara.”

Libya is a short flight or a boat ride away from Europe, with just over 1,000 kilometers separating it from Malta and the Italian island of Sicily in the Mediterranean.

The minister also warned that the country is the region's “trafficking zone, beginning with human trafficking.”

“We need to act in Libya and mobilize the international community,” Le Drian said, adding that French troops stationed in Mali could be moved closer to Libyan borders.

However, to relocate French forces, Paris needs consensus from Algeria, which doesn’t seem thrilled by the idea.

“We don’t accept a foreign intervention on our borders, we want a regional solution,” Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal said over the weekend. “We need a consensus to put in place a government and institutions capable of governing the country.”

Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, also spoke out against of involvement of external powers into the North African region.

Another neighbor of Libya’s, Tunisia, also said it was “opposed in principle to any military intervention in a country.”

“We have seen the experiences of the past and we have seen that military intervention has absolutely not led to the installation of a democratic regime, to the stabilization of the country,” Nidhal Ouerfelli, a spokesman for the Tunisia government, said of the events in Libya during the last three years.

The current turmoil in Libya began after the 2011 NATO airstrikes helped rebels oust and execute Muammar Gaddafi, who had ruled the country for over 40 years.

Since then, the interim Libyan authorities have made fruitless efforts to contain the radical militias, who previously fought against Gaddafi.

The Islamists have recently captured the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and most of the country’s second-largest city, Benghazi.

“You have to remember that the chaos in Libya is a direct consequence of the NATO intervention," Rene Otayek, a researcher at Bordeaux's Institute of Political Science, told AFP.

PS:In all these crises,where is the UN? It is conspicuous by its absence. Does it exist at all?
Egypt and the UAE have been conducting secret air strikes in Libya and one only hears talk of individual nations about to strike (US) in Syria,etc.

" Bunkum" Moon,the UN's "bunco artist" has been the most pliable UN Sec-Gen ever,and would give very stiff competition to our own snake-oil mendicant,Silent Singh,as to being the most impotent world leader/figure thus far in the 21st century. Both these (un) worthies have like circus fleas performed perfectly for their white masters.Is it any coincidence that both are from Asia,where we've suffered for over 500 years the indignity of colonial rule by the imperialist powers,who now want neo-imperialism to resurrect its deadly head?

[Arjun]

Sushma Swaraj responded to a question about next week's vote in parliament with note of horror. “”God forbid!” she replied.

Whoops! Definite indications of Manmohanitis if this is correct...

[Suraj]

Is there any independent reference to her making such a quote ? Considering the source, I'm inclined to categorize it as manufactured, or deliberately misquoted.

[deejay]

Sushma Swaraj responded to a question about next week's vote in parliament with note of horror. “”God forbid!” she replied.

Whoops! Definite indications of Manmohanitis if this is correct...

I am sure "God Forbid" is not in SS lexicon. So what is the Hindi equivalent of God Forbid - Hey Bhagwan (my guess). So this person wants us to believe that SS said 'Hey Bhagwan' on the matter. Really?

[panduranghari]

He is wrong. The Westphalian state system is collapsing and we are seeing new large states with disordered areas round them.
we see this in history with collapse of all large state systems.

Look at UK which is on its way to become F UK!

67 years after losing India there is no Great nor United Britan.

Taking into account what you say - It makes sense to all of us why yUK is trying its best to save its casino banking system and why they are trying their best to make Chinese use London as the trading hub for yuan. The small nation states with inadequate resources like yUK, SL, etc. have to bite the bullet and join the larger state in its immediate vicinity. Strange it the yUK's political obsession of staying eurosceptic!!

[panduranghari]

Ultimate realist in Geopolitics
He understands that religion is part of geopolitics.

Dimitri Kitsikis (Greek: Δημήτρης Κιτσίκης; born 2 June 1935) is a Greek Turkologist, Professor of International Relations and Geopolitics.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimitri_Kitsikis

Dimitri Kitsikis, since the 1960s, has been the recognised theorist, first in Greece and then in Turkey, of the idea of a Greek-Turkish Confederation, which he has promoted by influencing statesmen, politicians, journalists, artists and thinkers in both countries.[26] His books in Turkish became best sellers in Turkey and were praised by the Prime Minister of Turkey.[27] He kept close ties with Prime Ministers Konstantinos Karamanlis senior of Greece and Turgut Özal[28] of Turkey as well as the Chinese leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.[29] His books in Greek created one of the greatest controversies ever encountered in Greek historiography. They were even debated in the Greek Parliament.[30] The well-established notion of Greeks enslaved by Turks, as well as a series of beliefs on the Ottoman Empire that had been traditionally taught in schools and universities throughout Greece, such as the story of the so-called "secret school," were strongly questioned.[31] While his father, Nikos Kitsikis, rector of the Polytechnical School, was a Leftist Member of Parliament, Senator and elected Mayor of Athens, Dimitri Kitsikis is averse towards the parliamentary system, which he regards as foreign to the Greek model of a government by the people or laocracy, Greek "λαοκρατία".[32]

He has been the initiator in France of the branch of the History of International Relations that deals with propaganda and pressure as a government weapon of foreign policy.[33] He also opened the way to the study of technocracy in international politics.[34] He has insisted that religion is an essential component of international politics and strove by conferences and other means to facilitate the collaboration between the four main religions of Judaism, Christianity, Islam and Hinduism.[35] He organised Orthodox dialogues with Iranian Shiites and Indian Hindus. He worked with Israeli Jews and fundamentalist Catholics from Quebec, where he, along with his students, produced the quarterly journal Aquila (eagle) which, with a double-headed eagle on the front cover promoted the Byzantine imperial idea amongst catholic circles.He also worked closely with the Fethullah Gülen Sunni Muslim Movement (See Gülen's "Dialog of Civilizations Platform"). But everywhere and at all times, the idea of a global hellenism is prevalent in his works and his teaching.[36]

He created a model[37] for a new approach of the three political ideologies of Liberalism, Fascism and Communism, and has published on the history of China. He is the founder of the branch of study known as Photohistory.[38]

You could try reading 'Modernisation of Islam' by Sushmit Kumar. He gets a mention in that book.

[pankajs]

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/1 ... GV20140915

Russia's energy minister to meet OPEC as oil price falls more

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak will meet OPEC officials on Tuesday in Vienna, his spokeswoman said, as oil's price fall piled pressure on Moscow's budget.

The annual meeting had been planned long before oil fell below the $100 per barrel level critical for Russia's oil sales which account for 40 percent of state budget revenues.

...
Oil ministers from the Middle East Gulf said last week the oil price drop was unlikely to spur action by the OPEC unless crude fell below $85 a barrel.

This is less than the $104 per barrel on average written into the 2014 Russian budget.

[Philip]

Another domino falls,this time Sweden.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/s ... -democrats
Free-market era in Sweden swept away as feminists and greens plot new path
Stefan Löfvan's Social Democrats likely to top the poll despite leader's TV gaffe

Gustav Fridolin, 31, the Greens' clean-cut joint leader, puts this down to what he calls the "red-green wind" sweeping Sweden. "People are tired of the government … The common feeling is enough. Enough of privatisation, enough of big profit within the school system and within the health system."

The last four years have seen a string of scandals at privately run, state-funded care homes and kindergartens, the bankruptcy of one of Sweden's largest free school chains, and the plummeting performance of Sweden's students as ranked by the OECD's Pisa study, all of which have helped turn the country against the centre-right and its reforms.

An opinion survey by Gothenburg University's SOM Institute found last year that seven out of 10 Swedes believed the country's experiment with letting private companies profit from public welfare had been a mistake.

[abhishek_sharma]

The Merkel Effect: What Today's Germany Owes to Its Once-Communist East

[Kati]

Putin - Da Manly Man

http://news.sky.com/story/1348557/putin ... y-russians

[abhishek_sharma]

How to talk to terrorists

[kmkraoind]

U.S. Opposing China’s Answer to World Bank

Instead, in quiet conversations with China’s potential partners, American officials have lobbied against the development bank with unexpected determination and engaged in a vigorous campaign to persuade important allies to shun the project, according to senior United States officials and representatives of other governments involved.

The dispute, the latest manifestation of Chinese-American competition in Asia, could escalate in coming weeks, as Beijing pushes to confirm South Korea and Australia as founding partners of the bank in time for Mr. Xi to formally announce it at a summit meeting of Asian leaders in November. President Obama is scheduled to attend the meeting, and Washington is pressing the two countries to reject the Chinese plan.
......
A senior Obama administration official said the Treasury Department had concluded that the new bank would fail to meet environmental standards, procurement requirements and other safeguards adopted by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, including protections intended to prevent the forced removal of vulnerable populations from their lands.
......
Last year, the United States said it would oppose financing of coal-fired power plants by the Asian Development Bank because of concerns about global warming. And early this year, Washington said it would not support construction of dams by the bank if they displaced people from their homes.

In Libya, Iran or Iraq US used human rights, now they are latching up environment. One thing is sure, dollar is anathema for US and it will defend at any cost.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Interesting video. The monolithic Euro-American media block is seeing cracks now that the prospect of confrontation with Russia is increasing.
Dr Udo Ulfkotte, journalist and author, on RT

[Philip]

Putting this here as the original MH td. is "missing"! Pun intended. This viewpoint given by an airline boss ,none other than the Emirates boss,suppoprts the conspiracy theories that have taken the world by storm.

MH370: Airline boss claims missing flight did not crash into Indian Ocean
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 90455.html

Emirates Airlines boss Sir Tim Clarke believes the missing aircraft was under control to the end - a theory counter to prevalent thinking
Rose Troup Buchanan

Monday 13 October 2014

The boss of an international airline company has said he believes missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 did not go down in the Indian Ocean.

Emirates Airlines Sir Tim Clark said to German newspaper Der Spiegel he did not believe the flight was on autopilot when it disappeared, claiming: “MH370 was, in my opinion, under control, probably until the very end”.

His comments run counter to prevalent thinking that the aircraft was on autopilot until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the southern Indian Ocean.

“Every single second of that flight needs to be examined up until it, theoretically, ended up in the Indian Ocean - for which they still haven't found a trace, not even a seat cushion,” he said.

Sir Tim added: “Our experience tells us that in water incidents, where the aircraft has gone down, there is always something.

“We have not seen a single thing that suggests categorically that this aircraft is where they say it is, apart from this so-called electronic satellite ‘handshake,’ which I question as well,” the airline boss said.

Emirates Airlines operates 127 Boeing 777 airplanes – more than any other airliner - which is the same model of missing MH370.

Sir Tim said it was the total disappearance of the aeroplane that ignited his suspicions and called for better transparency in the investigation. “I’m totally dissatisfied with what has been coming out of all of this,” he said.

In remarks likely to further inflame conspiracy theorists, Sir Tim added: “We need to know who was on the plane in the detail that obviously some people do know. We need to know what was in the hold of the aircraft.”

The airline boss also scotched suggestions for improved tracking equipment, saying the Boeing 777 model possessed one of the world’s most advanced communications platforms and claimed tracking devices should no longer be under the control of pilots – as they currently are.

“Disabling it [the tracker] is no simple thing and our pilots are not trained to do so. But on flight MH370, this thing was somehow disabled, to the degree that the ground tracking capability was eliminated.”

The M/V Fugro Discovery, which along with the Malaysian-contracted GO Phoenix, is searching for MH370 The M/V Fugro Discovery, which along with the Malaysian-contracted GO Phoenix, is searching for MH370 The latest analysis from the Australian transportation Safety Bureau (ATSB) said the flight went into a slow left turn and spiralled into eh Indian Ocean when its fuel ran out.

It has been seven months since Flight MH370 disappeared with all 239 people on board.

Extensive searches have revealed nothing, with the next phase of the operation to locate the plane now beginning following an extensive mapping process of the ocean floor.

Malaysian Airlines have faced angry accusations from the families of those on board over their handling of the situation.