Indian investments thread

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Sep 2014 10:49

While I do not have the details and assuming the above is close to reality, there could still be opportunities within the segment to ride on the the success of a nimble footed and innovative company having locational advantage in terms of raw material and market. It however will take a lot of effort to research and hence I myself haven't suggested any stock.

On Suraj saars comment, I would say that a lot of money can be made on cyclical too if one can catch the uptrend at the right time.

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 23 Sep 2014 18:43

I thought I had seen the last of Ulips. Not yet! There is more of the same, may be slightly improved.

ULIPs 2.0: Why you should buy these insurance-cum-investment plans now

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 25 Sep 2014 13:42

LakshO wrote:
SaraLax wrote: So do go for LUPIN ... but IMO don't expect a big-number multi-bagger here - it will be a steadily gaining stock. If it falls in a substantial ( maybe 5 - 10%) way - accumulate it at higher numbers for sure.
SaraLaxji, thanks for the detailed writeup on Lupin. Currently, I hold shares of Dr Reddy Labs and Cadila (in small amounts). I invested in these firms for their generics lineup. I have Biocon on my watch list; now, I will add Lupin. How about Cipla?

BTW, this thread is informative in discovering hidden gems

Hello LakshOji et Al,

In my opinion and based on my many years of observing Indian stock markets - i find that shares of Indian FMCG & Pharma space (i.e with primary business of exporting medicines) companies provide a good, stable avenue for investments in to the Indian equity market. They provide relatively lesser chances for losing money, more chances of profit (but may not lead to multi-bagger type gains in small duration), decent dividends. But they are always available at relatively higher prices alone !!!. One may need to develop conviction to accept this price point range and still invest. There is at least one more niche sector .... which carries very good chances for appreciation in stock prices at less risk and it is the Finance related Analytics sector. Refer companies like CRISIL, ICRA, CARE & etc. Again very pricey stocks but have been strong for a long time.

I have dabbled in Cyclicals, Banks & Financial institutions and personally - i didn't find them as appealing as FMCG & Pharma pack. But again as is obvious - certain private sector banks & financial institutions of high grade are good for investing but PSU banks need to be strictly avoided. Based on prior observations & certain bad experiences - i have stopped touching any of the ADAG, Mukesh Ambani, Adani, JayPee, certain Birla group companies. There are some groups that still inspire confidence like the Murugappa group, certain KM Birla group companies though. I thought good companies in Education sector would also do well , considering how much emphasis is given in our culture towards gaining education and the democratic bulge in the age group of 20 to 30 years that is currently happening - but i have only burnt my hands in it until now.

In the years 2012 & 2013 - there were many good stocks that were languishing at low prices due to the sleepy effect induced by UPA-2 on the economy . I bought some shares at that time & unexpectedly they have zoomed up after evidence that Modi would get elected started increasing in APRIL/May 2014. So such a situation does not exist now but might well happen again in this decade still or early next decade and be on the lookout for this period. One can keep collecting money waiting for that phase to manifest and invest well at that time. This can be a bit tough to do ... but its a 'wait, wait more, wait a bit more and then grab' game.

archan · Post by **archan** » 25 Sep 2014 17:18

I read that SBI is splitting its stock from a FV of 10 into 10 units each with FV of 1. Would you still want to avoid it if it was available cheaper?
I know Axis bank did it and some other bank might follow suit.

maitya · Post by **maitya** » 06 Oct 2014 09:48

In the 1st page of the thread, I'd posted that why from one of the most reviled investment option, ULIPs in the past couple of years, has slowly changed it's character (ofcourse after Govt/IRDA danda onlee) - further proof of it is in this ToI article, Why you should invest in Ulips now.

But as I've said before, one needs to look carefully what the investment goals are (e.g. ULIPs will only make sense, if they are ultra long term i.e. 10-15+ years etc and are linked with some life event) and make an investment decision.
And do note, falling for old adages like "Do NOT mix Investment with Insurance" (which I myself quite firmly believe in) etc without carefully weighing out the pros-cons vis-a-vis' ones investment goals is also quite dogmatic.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 06 Oct 2014 12:32

archan wrote:I read that SBI is splitting its stock from a FV of 10 into 10 units each with FV of 1. Would you still want to avoid it if it was available cheaper?
I know Axis bank did it and some other bank might follow suit.

SBI is good from long term perspective. Being a PSU bank it will go thru its cyclic ups and downs but in the long run, You will make money from this stock. Even J&K bank did a stock split of 1:10 last month.

Archan: On the portfolio thing, Moneycontrol is pretty safe and easy to handle as long as you manually add stocks to it. They don't ask for any personal detail. I have been using it for last 7 years now.

Disclaimer: I too am planning to get into SBI stock as soon as split stock is out in market for trading.

archan · Post by **archan** » 06 Oct 2014 15:26

maitya wrote:In the 1st page of the thread, I'd posted that why from one of the most reviled investment option, ULIPs in the past couple of years, has slowly changed it's character (ofcourse after Govt/IRDA danda onlee) - further proof of it is in this ToI article, Why you should invest in Ulips now.

But as I've said before, one needs to look carefully what the investment goals are (e.g. ULIPs will only make sense, if they are ultra long term i.e. 10-15+ years etc and are linked with some life event) and make an investment decision.
And do note, falling for old adages like "Do NOT mix Investment with Insurance" (which I myself quite firmly believe in) etc without carefully weighing out the pros-cons vis-a-vis' ones investment goals is also quite dogmatic.

My goals were mixed. I am already invested quite a bit in land, and there is a growing business on it, taken care of by dad at the moment. I am considering easing into it in a year or two.
I had some cash which was doing nothing so I wanted to explore things. In the past couple of months I have learned a few things, and let's see how it goes from here on. Since I can afford to take some risks, I did go against conventional wisdom and bought a ULIP for 3L. I will keep investing 3L in it for the next 5 years, unless the results appear too bad. Did a lot of back and forth on the charges etc. but in the long run, they come up to be not as much. Much of the feedback we see against ULIPs is due to the pre-2010 mess. Now they are different, or so I hope.
Second I invested in 3 MFs. (HDFC mid cap opportunities fund-growth - 25k, L&T BUsiness Cycles fund-growth - 1L, and HDFC Infrastructure fund-Growth - 1L).

Then I put about 1L in equity.
Phoenix Lamps
Ambuja Cements
Larsen and Toubro
Lupin
Power Grid
Bharti Airtel (was hoping to quickly sell it but the bugger sat down)

I know one has to give time for these investments and currently market is in a correction mode, but it is interesting that only the ULIP is in profit as of now.
All three MFs are in red, I'm losing about 7K total.
All shares except for Lupin are in red.

I'm losing around 4.7k on them.
I put in about 15k worth more today (when market opens tomorrow) of Lupin, which is 11 more shares. I slowly plan to accumulate good shares month by month.

I came across a couple of trading platform providers by reading an article on Economic Times. Zerodha and rksv.in . These charge flat, like Rs. 20 per transaction, regardless of size. I think I will start trading from there instead of my current one, which charges Rs. 0.3 per Rs. 100 transaction. Anyone with any good/bad experiences here?

Raina saheb, do let me know when that happens, in case I miss the news. I'd also like to buy some SBI.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 06 Oct 2014 17:40

Archanullah, please do check out www.traderji.com

You will learn more there in a week than you will learn here in a year. Sincerely, its better option for you if you are starting off or even a seasoned trader.

I have stayed away from this thread and will do so in the future.

But A warning - be willing to loose money in the markets. Loosing money will teach you valuable lessons which will enable you to make money. Until then you should call it beginners luck.

archan · Post by **archan** » 07 Oct 2014 10:57

Dhanyawaad! will do..
Yeah I am not too concerned about losing money at the moment. I believe that Indian economy will do well in the next 10-15 years as long as NM is at the helm. I've put my money where my mouth is!
So much is riding on NaMo!

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 07 Oct 2014 14:04

Infrastructure stocks might be a good speculative play. Many of them (GVK, GMR) are below their book value. With the emphasis on infrastructure by the govt, they might turnaround sooner or later.

Disclaimer: Not an expert investor, TIFWIW

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 Oct 2014 16:16

Losing money on a particular stock is ok and even acceptable as long as you are making money on your overall portfolio. No Non-trader like us can make money on all the stocks at all the time.
Key is to book profit when your stock is making good profit even if it is blue chip stock.
Now is the good time to enter stock market whenever it falls a bit since Namo story is going to play out for next few years.

I have recently invested in Texmo Pipes, Garware Ropes and CHD Developers. This investment is for short term (3-4 months horizon) and I will get out of them as soon as I make 25% profit.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 07 Oct 2014 16:21

I bought TCS and Tata Motors on Vina Ji's advice somewhere in 2012 when they were languishing.
TCS is up by 400% while Tata Motors has more then doubled since then.

The only bummer - I bought few shares. Why could I not buy 1000 TCS shares and would have been considering buying a shiny Tata Aria. Instead the genius me bought a ULIP Policy.

archan · Post by **archan** » 07 Oct 2014 19:19

So what could be todays TCS and Tata Motors? Million dollah Q ain't it?

Vina Jee leave the phone tablet thread and come here!

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 07 Oct 2014 21:35

This is not an investment advise but I am pretty sure HDFC Bank is currently at very good valuations. Someone holding it for next 5-10 years will do very well. The reason why it is stuck at this price for this long is because FII's have reached the limit. It is almost certain to grow 20%-25% every year for next decade

--Vamsee

==========
Disclosure: I am holding this stock since 2008.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 08 Oct 2014 01:28

Vamsee wrote:This is not an investment advise but I am pretty sure HDFC Bank is currently at very good valuations. Someone holding it for next 5-10 years will do very well. The reason why it is stuck at this price for this long is because FII's have reached the limit. It is almost certain to grow 20%-25% every year for next decade

--Vamsee

==========
Disclosure: I am holding this stock since 2008.

Excellent advise above. Anyone investing in Indian stocks should own HDFC bank.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Oct 2014 14:06

We should remember that making money in equity market is pretty hard but loosing it is very easy.

Archan, Even if someone identifies todays Infy,Maruti or TCS, what are the odds that I would put all my money in such stocks. Greed and fear are the two primary emotions that come in play in stock market

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 08 Oct 2014 14:23

archan wrote:
maitya wrote:In the 1st page of the thread, I'd posted that why from one of the most reviled investment option, ULIPs in the past couple of years, has slowly changed it's character (ofcourse after Govt/IRDA danda onlee) - further proof of it is in this ToI article, Why you should invest in Ulips now.

But as I've said before, one needs to look carefully what the investment goals are (e.g. ULIPs will only make sense, if they are ultra long term i.e. 10-15+ years etc and are linked with some life event) and make an investment decision.
And do note, falling for old adages like "Do NOT mix Investment with Insurance" (which I myself quite firmly believe in) etc without carefully weighing out the pros-cons vis-a-vis' ones investment goals is also quite dogmatic.
My goals were mixed. I am already invested quite a bit in land, and there is a growing business on it, taken care of by dad at the moment. I am considering easing into it in a year or two.
I had some cash which was doing nothing so I wanted to explore things. In the past couple of months I have learned a few things, and let's see how it goes from here on. Since I can afford to take some risks, I did go against conventional wisdom and bought a ULIP for 3L. I will keep investing 3L in it for the next 5 years, unless the results appear too bad. Did a lot of back and forth on the charges etc. but in the long run, they come up to be not as much. Much of the feedback we see against ULIPs is due to the pre-2010 mess. Now they are different, or so I hope.
Second I invested in 3 MFs. (HDFC mid cap opportunities fund-growth - 25k, L&T BUsiness Cycles fund-growth - 1L, and HDFC Infrastructure fund-Growth - 1L).

Then I put about 1L in equity.
Phoenix Lamps
Ambuja Cements
Larsen and Toubro
Lupin
Power Grid
Bharti Airtel (was hoping to quickly sell it but the bugger sat down)

I know one has to give time for these investments and currently market is in a correction mode, but it is interesting that only the ULIP is in profit as of now.
All three MFs are in red, I'm losing about 7K total.
All shares except for Lupin are in red. I'm losing around 4.7k on them.
I put in about 15k worth more today (when market opens tomorrow) of Lupin, which is 11 more shares. I slowly plan to accumulate good shares month by month.

I came across a couple of trading platform providers by reading an article on Economic Times. Zerodha and rksv.in . These charge flat, like Rs. 20 per transaction, regardless of size. I think I will start trading from there instead of my current one, which charges Rs. 0.3 per Rs. 100 transaction. Anyone with any good/bad experiences here?

Raina saheb, do let me know when that happens, in case I miss the news. I'd also like to buy some SBI.

How about Mothersons Sumitomo?

ITC?

archan · Post by **archan** » 08 Oct 2014 15:48

VikasRaina wrote:We should remember that making money in equity market is pretty hard but loosing it is very easy.

Archan, Even if someone identifies todays Infy,Maruti or TCS, what are the odds that I would put all my money in such stocks. Greed and fear are the two primary emotions that come in play in stock market

That is the key. I'd never put "all my money" even if it means "all my surplus available for investments". SOme has to sit in PPF, some in FDs, some in Money Market, debt funds and then whatever is left goes in the "game". Even if that means just 5k/mo. One must play in one's league naa.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Oct 2014 22:25

^ By All my money I meant the free cash sitting in bank and not in other forms like PPF,ULIP and FD etc.
Unfortunately I have had most of money sitting in bank and losing value hence the greed to invest in stock market and fear of losing it.
Anyways I have invested around 3 Lakhs in last 2 months in stock market in mid and small caps with some decent returns. Lets see how future plays out.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 08 Oct 2014 22:41

^^^^^

If you are concerned about losing purchasing power & are afraid of markets, the best bet would be HDFC Bank. The sheer consistency for many many months is just unbelievable.
They did not release Q2 results yet, but will release this month. I am pretty confident that net profit will be > 20% YoY (close to 25%)

Will come back and revisit this prediction after results are announced.

--Vamsee

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 09 Oct 2014 05:21

Guys, If you are "afraid" of losing money, please consider index funds. Its as close to "fire and forget" you will get as far as investments go.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 09 Oct 2014 09:39

Just sold my holding in Talwalkers which has been languishing in 195-215 range for quite sometime.
Will invest in Birla Ericson and HDFC Bank.

Polaris software has crashed spectacular going down by about 23%. No idea what was the bad news to trigger this crash. I just sold out Polarsi@245 few days back

archan · Post by **archan** » 09 Oct 2014 10:36

bach gaye! :p

archan · Post by **archan** » 09 Oct 2014 10:42

HDFC is hovering around its 52 week high, is Vamsee saar pulling in funds into it?

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 09 Oct 2014 15:00

^^^ archa ji, just wait for the FII limit issue to be settled. Stock will fly. Regardless, it is a 20-25% compounding machine for a good decade, with minimal risk of capital erosion.

archan · Post by **archan** » 09 Oct 2014 16:40

The stock beat the 52 week record today I think. How can a teeny weeny investor get in on it at this time?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 10 Oct 2014 02:16

archan wrote:HDFC is hovering around its 52 week high, is Vamsee saar pulling in funds into it?

I am holding both HDFC & HDFC Bank for many years. I am tempted to buy more of HDFC Bank but also tempted to buy Gruh Finance (it is not cheap :-( )
The thing about these stocks is that they are not going to be multi baggers very quickly.

These stocks (along with ITC etc) are no-brainer stocks in Indian market. If a person is satisfied with a 6-10 fold return in 10 years, he can invest in these and not bother looking at screen everyday. On the plus side If you are planning to invest substantial amounts of money, you would feel more comfortable with these kinds of stocks than say Suzlon energy or DLF.

===============================
Last September, I wrote the below post about BHEL

Today BHEL is around Rs. 219

It was so obvious even at that point of time.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... L#p1513718

===============================

Vamsee wrote:(NRI/RI in indian market)

Vamsee wrote:Did anyone take advantage when BHEL fell to nearly 100Rs?
I did not expect it to pull back so quickly and missed it
But luckily bought some HDFC Bank during Banking mayhem couple of weeks ago
========================================================

Update after 10 days of the above post....

=================================
Missed the 30%+ returns from BHEL :-(
Was able to get the 18%+ returns from HDFC bank.
========================================
Both not annualized (annualized returns would look obscene).

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 10 Oct 2014 10:55

Infy has declared bonus of 1:1 which will bring down the price of the stock considerably.
If interested one can get into this stock. After Murthy and Shibulal's departure, things have improved in Infy so this stock would still give you good returns..

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 10 Oct 2014 12:32

Sold Shalimar Paints@185 today. Made enough money to buy me a Pre-Loved Mountain Bicycle (Unlike those braggers on Nukkad and L&M Thread who buy multi-million rides and yet call themselves phata chappal Abdul).
Want to buy something in Pharma space for short term but no idea which ones ? Most of them look pretty expensive right now.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 10 Oct 2014 22:28

Mohandas Pai is correct. Infy should have bought back shares. I am very skeptical if any big-bang purchase can add much value to its share holders.

Buyback best way to use cash, not bonus: Ex-Infosys CFO Pai

dhruvM · Post by **dhruvM** » 10 Oct 2014 22:40

Vamsee ji, do you follow valuepickr for midcap recommendations?

I am tempted to enter gruh finance and pidilite - Waiting for a US led correction in the coming months onlee... Don't you think markets are overbought at the moment? Also, apart form HDFC Bank and ITC can you suggest any other compounding machines that are visible to you in the market. I am only 25 y.o. so looking for wealth creators in a 20-30 year time frame. I want to buy 5-6k worth of stock per month. The few that I have noticed till now are - HDFC Bank, Gruh Finance, Pidilite and IDFC.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 10 Oct 2014 22:44

archan wrote:The stock beat the 52 week record today I think. How can a teeny weeny investor get in on it at this time?

why should a 52 week high bother anyone? It is a secular growth story and does not fall much. So most of the times it remains close to its all time high, unless there is mayhem in the market.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 10 Oct 2014 23:09

dhruvM wrote:Vamsee ji, do you follow valuepickr for midcap recommendations?

I am tempted to enter gruh finance and pidilite - Waiting for a US led correction in the coming months onlee... Don't you think markets are overbought at the moment? Also, apart form HDFC Bank and ITC can you suggest any other compounding machines that are visible to you in the market. I am only 25 y.o. so looking for wealth creators in a 20-30 year time frame. I want to buy 5-6k worth of stock per month. The few that I have noticed till now are - HDFC Bank, Gruh Finance, Pidilite and IDFC.

Once in a while I look at Valuepikr but not sure about their mid-cap recommendations (i.e. I do not hold any of them).

Gruh and Pidilite are both excellent companies. But If I had to pick only one I would go with Gruh because I am sure about its consistent growth for next 15-20 years.
I think looking at whether market is overbought/oversold is not something that I do. If they look reasonably priced, I will pick them up. It is very rare to find them cheap. If we keep looking for them to fall to a P/E of less than 20, we may never buy them.

Let me give an example. Nestle India never fell to a P/E of 20. Even during the worse collapse of 2008-09, it fell to just 30 times I think. 20-25 years ago it was at 70 P/E. If someone saw it and told himself that this is insane P/E and not sustainable. Let us assume that he is interested in buying it at decent P/E (say 25). He would not be able to buy it even today (~P/E 49 today) and in the mean while he lost opportunity to make 70 times his money in Nestle (not even counting massive dividends). There is more to investing than just looking at P/E ratios

=================

All 4 companies you have mentioned are excellent ones & I hold Gruh & HDFC bank. I like pidilite but instead of IDFC, I would buy more of Gruh or HDFC Bank

ITC is also a compounding machine. People stay away fearing restrictions on tobacco meanwhile it multiplied your money by 2400 times in last 25 years

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 15 Oct 2014 16:36

urge all fellows to read "a random walk down wall street" by a princeton prof.

he says -
1.buy several stocks - a broad based index fund.

2.buy MFs at a good price

3. do not time the market. just buy and hold.

4. do not analyze the market

5. do not try to look at charts and predict

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Oct 2014 03:15

Gruh Finance does utterly predictable thing.

Revenue ~ 22% up
Net Profits ~ 25% up
EPS up ~ 24% up (because of dilution)

Gross NPA = 0.38% of total loans
Net NPA = 0%

Link to Results

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 16 Oct 2014 20:03

Anybody trading in derivatives......Options,furures etc?

Hariprasad · Post by **Hariprasad** » 16 Oct 2014 22:31

What is people's opinion on Holding MF vs Stocks ? I mean , working in e.g. ITvity office you don't get a lot of time to follow the daily stock markets ups and down.

Between MF vs stocks which is recommended ?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 Oct 2014 21:43

Folks,

Don't forget to dump & repurchase all your non-retirement stocks in this Market correction moment to book all your losses.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 21 Oct 2014 21:47

Vamsee wrote:^^^^^

If you are concerned about losing purchasing power & are afraid of markets, the best bet would be HDFC Bank. The sheer consistency for many many months is just unbelievable.
They did not release Q2 results yet, but will release this month. I am pretty confident that net profit will be > 20% YoY (close to 25%)

Will come back and revisit this prediction after results are announced.

--Vamsee

As promised, I am back to revisit my prediction

HDFC Bank Q2 profit rises 20% on higher NII, other income

Net Profit = 20.1% up YOY
NII = 4.5%
Gross NPA = 1.02%
Net NPA = 0.3%

I was hoping for net profit growth close to 25% rather than 20% but I will take it.

--Vamsee

LakshO · Post by **LakshO** » 23 Oct 2014 19:15

Big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on eve of Deepavali 2014
Picture abhi baaki hai