Eastern Europe/Ukraine

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 06 Nov 2014 22:58

http://rt.com/business/202727-ukraine-eu-help-gas/

€11bn is a lot of money. Let us hope that Europe is willing to part with that kind of money.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 06 Nov 2014 23:04

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... t-26728045
2 school children dead. 4 injured.

All that is certain so far is that the school where the shells landed is at least 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from the nearest government position but close to rebel posts. That would appear to lend weight to claims of Ukrainian culpability — government troops shelling the rebels — but Lysenko said the shelling was planned in advance by the rebels to discredit government forces.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 06 Nov 2014 23:18

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... n-ukraine/

The Ukraine crisis, which kicked into high gear with the Russian government’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula on March 17, has led to sanctions that closed off long term financing for Gazprom and others.

The rhetorical line being peddled byall the western news outlets that the crisis started with the annexation of Crimea. As if the deposition of elected presidents is common and natural phenomena in the world. Goebbelsian Propaganda.

Recently, Ukraine’s central bank said that it would use its foreign currency reserves to help pay Gazprom. Ukraine has around $16 billion in reserves, making Gazprom’ payment equal to around 20% of Ukraine’s total rainy day fund. The country has stiffed Gazprom before, so it will be interesting to see how long this struggling economy will be able to keep paying Gazprom, even at the low rate.

“Ukraine is of minor economic significance to the Russian economy,” said Michael Reynal, a long-time Russia investor and emerging markets fund manager for RS Investments.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 07 Nov 2014 22:04

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29952505#

escalalation?

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 07 Nov 2014 22:05

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/0 ... X920141107

Ukraine's military accused Russia on Friday of sending a column of 32 tanks and truckloads of troops into the country's east to support pro-Russian separatists fighting government forces.

Russia has sent in tanks and artillery guns and what not. This is the 100th invasion of Ukraine by russia in the last 100 days.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 07 Nov 2014 22:05

In the meanwhile Saakashvili chimes in on Georgia: http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesinter ... us-path/2/

From Saakashvili, with love.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 08 Nov 2014 00:28

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/ ... ussia.html

Ukraine's military said its forces killed as many as 200 rebels in fighting in Donetsk as dozens of tanks and other military vehicles crossed the border into Ukraine from Russia.

Russia's RIA Novosti state news service quoted Andrei Purgin, deputy premier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, as saying that Ukraine had begun a large-scale offensive against the separatists in the east. Purgin said he sees “all-out war” and said Ukrainian forces had broken the Sept. 5 truce, according to RIA.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Nov 2014 10:04

RSoami wrote:http://rt.com/business/202727-ukraine-eu-help-gas/

€11bn is a lot of money. Let us hope that Europe is willing to part with that kind of money.

A good portion of that money would be siphoned off by the President and PM party elites in the name of Democracy and Standing firm against Russia.

Even the EU knows about it but right now they are forced to spend money on Ukraine for as long as the Eyeballs are on it , once thats gone EU with wash away from Ukraine commitment and tell her to implement IMF recommended package.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 10 Nov 2014 00:52

Fighting has intensified again.
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20141109 ... Along.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Nov 2014 09:02

Good Read

Russia’s Vulnerability to EU – US Sanctions and Military Encroachments

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 10 Nov 2014 12:01

Wonder whats happening. Russia has moved from recognizing to respecting the rebel elections. Ahem, ahem.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Nov 2014 12:06

Mikhail Gorbachev,darling of the West for ending the Cold War with Ronnie R,had grim words to say on the 25th anniv. of the fall of the Berlin Wall.He accused the West,esp. the US of triumphalism" and instead of demilitarizing Europe,expanding NATO to Russia's very own border in the UKR. He warned of a new Cold War emerging with a proxy war in the UKR that could lead to unimaginable consequences .Sadlly,the US and West instead of defusing the crisis are supporting the oligarchs of Kiev and fascist forces and drumming up anti-Russian hysteria. The UKR has now after the Donetsk referendum reached a point of no return.The division of the UKR with Russian forces more openly arming and supplying the Donetsk Republic is assign that Putin and Russia couldn't care less for whatever the West feels.A new CW is with us.A few years ago I started a td. asking the same Q.It has sadly all come to pass and the US is forcing Russia and China to come closer together.PM Modi and Pres. Putin have a a lot to talk about when he visits in Dec.As Germany marks fall of the Berlin Wall, Gorbachev warns of new cold war

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... nniversary
Ex-Soviet leader backs Putin over Ukraine as Germany celebrates the 25th anniversary of a seminal moment in European history

As Berliners watch 8,000 balloons being released into the night sky this evening, old divisions between east and west will symbolically vanish into thin air with them. Yet the runup to the festivities has already served up plenty of reminders that, 25 years after the fall of the wall that divided the city for three decades, the scars of history are hurting more than ever.

Speaking at a symposium near the Brandenburg Gate yesterday morning, former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev warned that the world was “on the brink of a new cold war” and strongly criticised the west for having sown the seeds of the current crisis by mishandling the fallout from the collapse of the iron curtain.

“Instead of building new mechanisms and institutions of European security and pursuing a major demilitarisation of European politics … the west, and particularly the United States, declared victory in the cold war,” said the man behind the Soviet Union’s glasnost and perestroika reforms.

“Euphoria and triumphalism went to the heads of western leaders. Taking advantage of Russia’s weakening and the lack of a counterweight, they claimed monopoly leadership and domination in the world.”

The enlargement of Nato, Kosovo, missile defence plans and wars in the Middle East had led to a “collapse of trust”, said Gorbachev, now 83. “To put it metaphorically, a blister has now turned into a bloody, festering wound.”

Previously an outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin, Gorbachev backed the current Russian president’s stance over Ukraine, urging western leaders to “consider carefully” Putin’s recent remarks at the Valdai forum : “Despite the harshness of his criticism of the west, and of the United States in particular, I see in his speech a desire to find a way to lower tensions and ultimately to build a new basis for partnership.”

Such strong words of criticism, voiced by the man still affectionately known as “Gorbi” to many in Germany, came at the end of a week which has seen the value of the rouble tumbling dramatically as a result of western sanctions.

Friday afternoon had seen another reminder of the old east-west tensions still running through Germany when the usually rather staid proceedings of the Bundestag were shaken up by a musical guest performance. Veteran songwriter Wolf Biermann, who was kicked out of the GDR in 1976, performed a protest song called Ermutigung (Encouragement) and took a number of swipes at politicians from Die Linke (the Left party), successors to East Germany’s ruling party, the SED.

“Your punishment is to have to listen to me here – enjoy”, Biermann said, while gesturing towards the leftwing parliamentarians. He went on to describe Die Linke MPs as “dragon spawn” and “the miserable dregs of something that had luckily been overcome”.

Only last week German president Joachim Gauck, a former head of the Stasi archives, had questioned whether the Left party had “really distanced itself from the ideas the SED once had about repression of people”. Die Linke is on the verge of gaining its first state premier, in the Thuringia region, something Gauck said “people of my age who lived through the GDR find quite hard to accept”.

At the very least, such score-settling should stop this weekend’s festivities, taking place under the motto “courage for freedom”, from turning into a merely nostalgic affair. Events in Berlin will mark the culmination of a remarkable chain of events which resulted in the opening of border checkpoints in Berlin on the night of 9 November 1989. At least 138 people died trying to cross the inner-German border in the capital, more than 1,000 in the country as a whole, in the postwar years.

A host of historic key players and celebrities have already dodged a nationwide train strike in Germany to descend on the capital. Yesterday evening German chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in East Germany, attended a memorial concert at the Berliner Ensemble, the theatre founded by the playwright Bertolt Brecht.

On Sunday, Merkel will open a new exhibition centre at Bernauer Strasse, near the Bornholmer Strasse checkpoint where the then 35-year-old chancellor crossed over to the west for the first time. “I think you never forget how you felt that day – at least I will never forget it,” the chancellor said in a recent podcast. “I had to wait 35 years for that feeling of liberty. It changed my life.”

At least two million people are expected to attend a grand street festival at the Brandenburg Gate. The former Polish president Lech Walesa, Hungarian ex-president Miklos Nemeth, as well as Gorbachev and German president Gauck, are all expected to take to the stage.

Music will be provided by the Berlin State Orchestra, conducted by Daniel Barenboim, as well as East Berlin rock band Silly and British singer-songwriter Peter Gabriel, performing David Bowie’s Heroes.

The centrepiece of the festivities will be formed by an ambitious art installation. Since Friday morning, 8,000 white balloons have been pegged to the ground along the former border. After sunset, they light up to form a 15km-long “wall of light”. This evening the balloons will be released into the air one by one, to the music of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy.

Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit, as well as guests of honour including Nobel peace prize winner Muhammad Yunus, Nasa astronaut Ron Garan and Wikipedia

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... ar[b]Close military encounters between Russia and the west ‘at cold war levels’[/b]
Report lists 40 cases of ‘brinkmanship’ in past eight months, including near-collision between Russian spy plane and passenger jet

Ewen MacAskill, defence and security correspondent
The Guardian, Monday 10 November 2014

Russian military jets fly in formation above the Kremlin. The European Leadership Network’s report comes after a warning from Mikhail Gorbachev that the world is ‘on the brink of a new cold war’. Photograph: Tatyana Makeyeva / Reuters/Reuters

Close military encounters between Russia and the west have jumped to cold war levels, with 40 dangerous or sensitive incidents recorded in the past eight months alone, according to a report published on Monday.

The report, Dangerous Brinkmanship by the European Leadership Network, logs a series of “highly disturbing” incidents since the Ukrainian crisis began earlier this year, including an alarming near-collision between a Russian reconnaissance plane and a passenger plane taking off from Denmark in March with 132 passengers on board.

What made the incident especially dangerous was that the Russian plane did not have on its transponders, the usual method of signalling its presence to other aircraft.

The report by the London-based thinktank comes after a warning from former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev that the world is “on the brink of a new cold war”.

The encounters have taken place mainly around the Baltic Sea but also in the Black Sea and along the US and Canadian borders.

“We believe the nearly 40 incidents logged are a very serious development, not necessarily because they indicate a desire on the part of Russia to start a war but because they show a dangerous game of brinkmanship is being played, with the potential for unintended escalation in what is now the most serious security crisis in Europe since the cold war,” say the report’s authors Thomas Frear, Lukasz Kulesa and Ian Kearns.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Russian and Nato forces have routinely tested one another’s air defences, with both sending planes close to international borders to see how fast the other responds. But this year has seen not only a surge in such encounters but limits being pushed to new, more risky levels.

The US, Britain and other Nato allies accuse Russia of ramping up military action, but Moscow places the blame on the US and its European allies, accusing them of provoking the crisis in the Ukraine and through the imposition of sanctions on Russia. Gorbachev, normally a critic of Vladimir Putin, took the unusual step of siding with the Russian leader and called for new mechanisms for lowering tensions.

Some anti-war activists in the US and the west argue that Nato is hyping up encounters and risking all-out war.

The report authors urge the Russian leadership to “urgently re-evaluate the costs and risks of continuing its more assertive military posture”. They also call on all sides to exercise military and political restraint and improve military-to-military communication and transparency.

Nato logged up to late October more than 100 intercepts of Russian aircraft, three times more than last year.

These and other incidents add up to a highly disturbing picture of violations of national airspace, emergency scrambles, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, and other dangerous actions happening on a regular basis over a very wide geographical area, the report says.

Among high-risk incidents it lists are: the abduction by Russia of an Estonian intelligence agent in September: a mock Russian bombing raid on a heavily populated Danish island; simulated cruise missile attacks by Russian bombers on the US and Canada; Canadian warships locking radar on approaching Russian aircraft in the Black Sea; and a US plane making unauthorised entry into Swedish airspace after being chased by Russian planes.

Estonian defence minister Sven Mikser said last week that while he did not see outright military conflict with Russia as likely, Russia had returned to cold war ways by stepping up incursions.

According to Lithuania’s defence ministry, Nato fighter jets around the Baltic states had been scrambled 86 times by mid-October, nearly twice as many as the whole of last year. Estonia has reported six breaches of its airspace by Russian aircraft this year, up from two in all of 2013. Latvia says it has sighted more than 40 Russian military vessels near its waters.

British general Sir John McColl, former deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, said the potential for miscalculation or escalation could be a matter not of if but when. While the recent increases in incidents were central high-level decisions, the physical execution of policy was delegated down.

“Junior commanders with highly capable equipment under their control will be interpreting broad direction using their initiative as circumstances develop in front of them. The potential for error and escalation is clear, and extremely dangerous; more a matter of when rather than if,” McColl said.

Former British defence secretary Des Browne shared the concern, singling out the near collision between the passenger plane and the warplane as well as the abduction of the Estonian, which he described as “a Russian incursion into Nato territory which had it got out of hand, could have had incalculable consequences”.

Kearns, who has been engaged with senior British foreign and defence policy makers for two decades, said: “We badly also need to negotiate a new crisis management arrangement with Russia to avoid a major unintentional escalation. The Chinese and Japanese have negotiated just such an arrangement in the East China Sea in the last few days. That is what we now need in Europe.’

China and Japan reached agreement on Friday on just such mechanisms in the East China Sea after similar tension. The two have been in dispute over tiny unpopulated islands controlled by Japan but claimed by Beijing and known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan.

Three close encounters

Near mid-air collision with passenger plane On 3 March this year, an SAS passenger plane taking off from Copenhagen with 132 passengers bound for Rome had a close encounter with a Russian reconnaissance plane which did not transmit its position. A collision was only avoided because of good visibility and the alertness of the SAS pilots, according to the report. The incident, which happened 50 miles south-east of Malmo, in Sweden, was before the shooting down of the MH17 passenger plane over Ukraine. Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists were blamed for the July missile attack.

Simulated cruise missile attacks on North America In early September this year, Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea near Canada practised cruise missile strikes. The Russian aircraft stayed out of Canada’s airspace but it was still a provocative move in light of the Nato summit at the time, according to the report. Cruise missiles launched from the Labrador Sea would have Ottawa, New York, Washington, Chicago and America’s Norfolk naval base in range.

Black Sea encounter On 7 September, the Canadian frigate Toronto was buzzed by a Russian aircraft in the Black Sea with the plane coming within 300 metres. The Toronto locked its radar on the Russian plane but took no further action as the Russian plane was not armed. The incident coincided with larger Russian larger naval combat training activities near Sevastopol. “Such aggressive behaviour, if repeated by an armed aircraft, could have resulted in the ship commander targeting the aircraft in an act of self-defence,” the report says

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 10 Nov 2014 12:22

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/ ... MM20141109

"Whether we will end up with full implementation of the EU agreement as it was signed, I have my doubts," he said.

"I think that within six months, the EU will be negotiating again with the Ukrainians and the Russians, with them sitting at the same side of the table ... The EU will wake up."

Looks like EU is having second thoughts about financially aiding Ukraine already. This is sooner than expected.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Nov 2014 13:00

!Western hypocrisy.Scotland and now Catalonia can hold their own referendums but Donetsk and the Crimea can't

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... dence.html
Catalonia poll shows backing for independence
Supporters claim more than 80 per cent of voters back breakaway from Spain in non binding poll

More than 80 per cent of voters back Catalan independence in unofficial poll Photo: ZUMA/Rex
David Millward
10 Nov 2014

Even though the vote is non-binding, Artur Mas, the Catalan leader, hailed it as a great success adding that it should pave the way for a formal referendum.
"Once again Catalonia has shown that it wants to rule itself,” he said.
"We have earned the right to a referendum," he told cheering supporters.
Wit Spain’s constitutional court ruling that the vote had no legal status, supporters of Catalan independence went ahead with what they described as a “consultation of citizens”.

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09 Nov 2014
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04 Nov 2014
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03 Nov 2014
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22 Oct 2014

More than two million people are understood to have taken part in the poll.
With nearly all the votes counted, organisers said that 80.72 per cent had backed the call for independence from Spain.

However the vote, in north east Spain, has been opposed by the Government in Madrid with Rafael Catala, the justice minister, describing it as “fruitless and useless.”

He accused Mr Mas of organising an act of “pure political propaganda” with no validity, adding that Madrid could take more legal action against the vote.

The ballot comes against a backdrop of escalating tension between the region, which has its own distinct language, and accounts for 16 per cent of the Spanish population, and the central government in Madrid.

Wealthier than the rest of Spain, supporters of Catalan independence have complained that the region, which has a population of 7.5 million, is paying far more to the country’s economy than it gets back in Government grants.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 13 Nov 2014 00:14

Looks like Ukraine is going to get into fighting mode again. UNSC meeting today on the matter.
Also Russia has had enough of bonhomie with EU. It has finally realised that EU is only a scout for NATO. And so Russia has abstained from voting on extending Euro forces in Bosnia.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Nov 2014 02:35

The White Widow islamist terrorist who escaped after Nairobi Mall attack was killed 2 weeks ago in Ukraine by Russian.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Nov 2014 09:27

Looks like another round of fighting will soon start , Ukraine Troops as per their Defence Ministry is moving towards frontline and Seps are prepare with their own heavy artillery etc

CNN is already puting a ticker Ceasefire Collapse , Russia to be blamed and NATO claiming Russia moving N Weapons capable fighter to Crimea i.e Su-27 Flanker

The word Nuclear is used first time by NATO may be just causing more alarm

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Nov 2014 12:42

mmh, I wonder why the rhetoric hasn't started here already?

teeheehee. More vodka bottles will enter Novorossiya in a while? In the meanwhile, Breedloves statements has been referred to as hot air by the Russian side. LOL

Semantic and grammatical war going on currently. Propaganda too.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 13 Nov 2014 14:28

Both sides accusing the other of massing troops.
http://rt.com/news/204959-russia-ukraine-military-un/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/1 ... 44224.html

Meanwhile Ukraine has started enjoying the benefits of wanting to join the EU.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102177962

As the United Nations Security Council gets set to meet about an unstable situation in Ukraine, a leading banking organization said Wednesday that the country's financial situation is "really desperate" and its economy is "in free fall."

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Nov 2014 17:41

how Putin denys USA

He knows their DNA

More than any other leader, the Russian President by virtue of his KGB experience understands how the United States operates. The American modus operandi – in sync with the British – is to organise coups, rebellions and counter revolutions in countries where nationalist leaders come to power. Iran, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Panama and Ukraine are the classic examples.

John Perkins writes in Confessions of an Economic Hitman how he and other ‘hitmen’ like him were sent to developing countries as consultants to bribe or coerce diplomats, economists, administrators and politicians to do the bidding of the United States. Often they succeeded, but if they failed then the CIA would send in the ‘jackals’ – professionally trained assassins who would engineer the deaths of those who stood in the way of complete American domination.

This one-two punch by economic hitmen and assassins was so effective in creating banana republics that the United States rarely had to use any other means. Among the rare occasions the Americans had to use the military in pursuit of commercial aims was in Iraq, and to a limited extent in Libya.

Putin knows the US has attempted a similar approach in Russia. As a former KGB general stationed in East Germany he knows the hitmen are on the prowl. “One of the things to understand is that he in particular studied counter-intelligence which is key in understanding why he’s the critical player,” writes Joaquin Flores in the Center For Syncretic Studies. “Counter-intelligence is not just finding spies, but it’s actually countering the work of other agents who are embedded or whose work involves embedding themselves to destroy institutions from within.”

Parallel to American black ops is naked war. It is now plainly evident that the United States economy – and that of its sidekick Britain – is a war economy. Russian presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev, known to be close to the nationalist core of Putin’s party, said at a round table in Moscow: “The Americans have gained from every war in Europe – World War I, World War II, the Cold War. The wars in Europe are the means of their economic miracle, their own prosperity.”

The war in Ukraine is clearly a pretext to pull Russia into a direct military confrontation with Ukrainian armed forces, in order to create a regional war in Europe.

Russia’s response is two pronged. One, by refusing to get into a shooting war with the Ukrainian thugs, it keeps the Americans frustrated. Washington’s inaction in Ukraine was brilliantly described by a Chinese general as a symptom of America’s strategic “erectile dysfunction”.

http://russia-insider.com/en/export/1021

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 13 Nov 2014 20:49

Saker on information sources regarding the situation in Novorussia:

_________________________
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/ ... cting.html

A quick note about sources:

Speaking of 'Cassad', I want to recommend him again as one of the best sources of info about the situation Novorussia. Along with another blogger, "Basketok", he provides very good info. The other big quality of Cassad is that he is very factual and avoids all the hysterics that so many bloggers tend to engage in. While Cassad writes in Russian, somebody is translating his writings into English and doing a very good job. Check out the 'English Cassad' blog and, as a good example, this November 11th translation of an article published by the Russian Cassad on the 10th. Today is the 12 but the info contained is still valid and interesting. In other words, the Cassad+English Cassad combo provides pretty solid info, pretty fast. Frankly, as English language sources go, I recommend Colonel Cassad's blog as the first place to go.

Second, I recommend Russia Insider. No, not because I am a contributor there, but because there is *a lot* of fresh info there, and that it's "reach of topics" is wider than Cassad's. So Cassad for fresh info about Novorussia, Russia Insider as fresh "context info". RT? Alas, no. I like CrossTalk a lot, but that is a discussion show, not a source of info. But the info on RT is mostly stale and vague. There is also the Voice of Sevastopol in English and the Youtube channels of Kazurra and Anti-Maidan (with whom Basketok is associated). That's about all the English-language news sources about the Ukraine I could recommend. As a general news website to go to I would recommend Information Clearing House and the Asia Times (especially anything written by Pepe Escobar).

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Nov 2014 03:05

This is amusing. Now that OSCE mostly does its job honestly (owing to the fact that it has observers from both russia and the west), it is causing increasing discomfort in the west.
Earlier it has been denying any Russian movement of troops and now it has said that the Ukrainian shelling killed two schoolchildren.
Also note that OSCE had declared that it was Georgia`s fault in 2008 before its head of mission was transferred and another fellow decided to change the narrative under western pressure.

Since noone believes the western narrative, OSCE becomes important when forming public opinion in the west. Here is an attempt to influence and discredit OSCE.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-cr ... 90263.html

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 14 Nov 2014 04:04

Austin wrote:Looks like another round of fighting will soon start

I've been saying the whole time, the Russians should have simply rolled into all these areas back in late-March or early April. At that time, they could have taken all their objectives without a fight and with far less resistance from the EU. Of course the US would have demanded crippling sanctions or even armed intervention, but at that time the Europeans would have been very ambivalent about getting involved. Thousands wouldn't have died and the Russians would have been spared the massive public relations disaster of the MH17 shootdown.

Instead Putin followed a very indecisive course of action, hoping he could maintain some kind of plausible deniability by doing all the fighting through proxies. That policy was an utter failure; by September Kiev's forces had almost completely routed his rebels and Putin was forced to do exactly what he'd been trying to avoid the whole time: open intervention with substantial Russian ground troops.

But then, just when it looked like he'd finally rediscovered his balls, Putin started quivering and got all indecisive again. With Russian ground troops kicking ass and slaughtering Kiev's forces, Putin lost his nerve again, bowing to western pressure and signing a cease fire. And Putin did this when rebel & Russian forces had all the momentum on their side and Kiev's forces were completely routed. At that time, they could have taken all Donbass with minimal fighting; instead Putin decided to stop short again.

And so now, the Russians are back in the same situation all over again, having to fight bitterly over land that they could have already taken without a fight, and this time facing a much tougher US and European response. All these repeated delays have served to accomplish little more than giving the Ukrainians time to rearm and giving the US more time to undermine Russia diplomatically.

Putin's not looking much like the grand strategist that many claim him to be. His indecisiveness reminds me of, well, everything India has done (or failed to so) in every conflict we've ever engaged in. I don't get it; does Putin know something we don't? Is the Russian hand really that weak?

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Nov 2014 07:58

^^^^ Winter is a great friend of mother russia. Of auntie ukraine, not so much.

It is the west's plan, not Russia's to have russia takeover ukraine. but in the end game things will go west to the river. Just when is in doubt, not if.

The fighting had never stopped, reporting had.

There is still a lot of posturing left to do, but the northern US is below freezing. Ukraine will be in the coming days covered properly in white too. This huff-puff will go away, but the garrisons will remain.
Whether hibernation of the conflict will occur or not is not clear.

Facts are unchanged from current skirmishes, but poland et al are dying to create a west-ukraine/east-ukraine situation. Postponing it to spring is not a bad idea, at least they pay another 5-10B in gas payments in the meantime.

The head honchos driving the western bus are also changing Jan 1. Lame duckery in the US may keep things frozen for another year or two while the west ukraine trains and equips itself.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Nov 2014 11:08

Y. Kanan wrote: I've been saying the whole time, the Russians should have simply rolled into all these areas back in late-March or early April. At that time, they could have taken all their objectives without a fight and with far less resistance from the EU. Of course the US would have demanded crippling sanctions or even armed intervention, but at that time the Europeans would have been very ambivalent about getting involved. Thousands wouldn't have died and the Russians would have been spared the massive public relations disaster of the MH17 shootdown.

Instead Putin followed a very indecisive course of action, hoping he could maintain some kind of plausible deniability by doing all the fighting through proxies. That policy was an utter failure; by September Kiev's forces had almost completely routed his rebels and Putin was forced to do exactly what he'd been trying to avoid the whole time: open intervention with substantial Russian ground troops.

But then, just when it looked like he'd finally rediscovered his balls, Putin started quivering and got all indecisive again. With Russian ground troops kicking ass and slaughtering Kiev's forces, Putin lost his nerve again, bowing to western pressure and signing a cease fire. And Putin did this when rebel & Russian forces had all the momentum on their side and Kiev's forces were completely routed. At that time, they could have taken all Donbass with minimal fighting; instead Putin decided to stop short again.

And so now, the Russians are back in the same situation all over again, having to fight bitterly over land that they could have already taken without a fight, and this time facing a much tougher US and European response. All these repeated delays have served to accomplish little more than giving the Ukrainians time to rearm and giving the US more time to undermine Russia diplomatically.

Putin's not looking much like the grand strategist that many claim him to be. His indecisiveness reminds me of, well, everything India has done (or failed to so) in every conflict we've ever engaged in. I don't get it; does Putin know something we don't? Is the Russian hand really that weak?

What you are suggesting is a worst option Putin would have taken.

Rolling Russian Army into Sovereign Ukraine would be an act of war which in worst case would be full scale war between Ukraine and Russia and in best case a very prolonged insurgency operation ala US intervention in Iraq.

East of Ukraine is not Crimea where Russian Navy had base with thousands of troops and most population over 80 % Russians hence defacto Russian Territory ethnically.

The best option for all the party in the conflict would be grant maximum autonomy to Donbass and Lugansk Region with ability to do free trade with Russia .....The Worst option for all the party would be a frozen conflict where Russia recognises the region of Donbass and Lugansk while ROW does not along similar lines of Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 14 Nov 2014 11:57

^^ true. Besides, its not as if the public was all inviting when it was given an option about Rossiya too. I think there might have been a great fightback and pullback from the general public too.

I do remember seeing that Putin did a dip stick analysis before he did indeed move... both in crimea and stopped moving into Donetsk and Luhansk. Besides, keeping a questionable border also keeps the idiots and NATO troops out. However, it also means frozen conflicts... but hell, so be it would have been his thought.

I still qn the intent of NATO to come to E Europe. So, the cause was there. This is just the effect.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Nov 2014 16:25

Keep the conflict frozen/simmering. Take over the industrialised important parts. Like Kharkiv and Mariupol perhaps.
Let the west continue to finance the rump economically bankrupt Ukraine paying Russia billions for the next many many years. Let the fascisti west Ukrainians enjoy the benefits of their policies.
That would be a nice approach. None love their money more than the western capitalists.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Nov 2014 16:52

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/ ... 7F20141114
This fellow Yatseneuk is not dumb. He knows exactly what the fire eating `strategic` experts in Washington want to hear.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Nov 2014 17:16

Putin: Russian Economy Won't Be Dominated by 'Dollar Dictatorship'

MOSCOW, November 14 (Sputnik) – Russia plans to leave the “dollar dictatorship” of market oil prices and turn to using the country’s national currency and the Chinese yuan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday.

“We are leaving the dictatorship of the market where oil goods are based on the dollar and will increase the possibilities of using [other] national currencies: the ruble and the yuan,” Putin said in an interview with the Russian state news agency TASS.

On a November 9 meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the possibility of using the yuan in transactions in fields of mutual cooperation.

habal · Post by **habal** » 14 Nov 2014 17:17

Austin wrote:Putin: Russian Economy Won't Be Dominated by 'Dollar Dictatorship'

MOSCOW, November 14 (Sputnik) – Russia plans to leave the “dollar dictatorship” of market oil prices and turn to using the country’s national currency and the Chinese yuan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday.

“We are leaving the dictatorship of the market where oil goods are based on the dollar and will increase the possibilities of using [other] national currencies: the ruble and the yuan,” Putin said in an interview with the Russian state news agency TASS.

On a November 9 meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the possibility of using the yuan in transactions in fields of mutual cooperation.

More power to the Rodina.

Russia To Dump SWIFT Within a Few Months
Russia says "Nyet" to being held hostage in the future

Russia intends to have its own international inter-bank system up and running by May 2015. The Central of Russia says it needs to speed up preparations for its version of SWIFT in case of possible ”challenges” from the West.

"Given the challenges, Bank of Russia is creating its own system for transmitting financial messaging... It’s time to hurry up, so in the next few months we will have certain work done. The entire project for transmitting financial messages will be completed in May 2015," said Ramilya Kanafina, deputy head of the national payment system department at the Central Bank of Russia (CBR).

Calls not to use the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system in Russian banks began to grow as relations between Russia and the West deteriorated over sanctions. So far, SWIFT says despite pressure from some Western countries to join the anti-Russian sanctions, it has no intention of doing so.

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics_b ... few_months

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Nov 2014 21:15

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... investment

Back in August the IMF calculated that under an “adverse scenario”, Ukraine would need an extra $19 billion of funds in 2015. It is already worse than that.

apart from the 27 billion promised.

Since the prospect of a chaotic default will deter investors, Ukraine—with IMF support—should start negotiations to restructure its bonds now. And since that will not be enough, it will need more aid, probably at least another $20 billion. Western governments should make clear, now, that they will furnish more funds. In particular America could be more generous; it has so far delivered a measly $1 billion.

Why should America pay more. America will bomb the shit out of anyone who asks for more money from America.
Its Putins fault anyway.
Meanwhile America`s puppy Yatseneuk wants to build an army to fight the Russians.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Nov 2014 21:44

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... turns.html

here is more on the economy.

Ukraine is in such dire straits that officials are holding back on pre-payments to Russia for gas imports, keeping their fingers crossed that the warm weather will last long enough for Ukraine to make it through the winter, relying on gas stocks and limited flows from Slovakia and Poland through “reverse pipelines”.

So the whole thing about Russian invasion is about not giving money to Russia. But then they would get no gas.

“Ukraine desperately needs support and foreign exchange to defend the currency but there isn’t enough money left from the IMF. A sovereign default looks increasingly likely,” said Tim Ash, from Standard Bank.

Analysts say the IMF has repeated the errors made in Argentina and Greece, lending large sums of money to a country charging headlong towards insolvency.

So the economy is gone. And all the IMF money is gone too. Where did it go ?!

The IMF has unwittingly bailed out creditors - including Russian state banks, Austrian lenders, as well as protecting Western investors accused by critics of propping up the previous regime - at the expense of taxpayers.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 15 Nov 2014 00:12

Is this the moment MH17 was shot down as it flew over Ukraine? Russian state broadcaster produces 'satellite images' showing fighter jet attack

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 15 Nov 2014 04:12

kmkraoind wrote:Is this the moment MH17 was shot down as it flew over Ukraine? Russian state broadcaster produces 'satellite images' showing fighter jet attack

OK I'm sorry but this is just silly. This kind of ham-fisted propaganda does little to enhance Russia's credibility, and this is coming from someone who supports their actions in Ukraine.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 15 Nov 2014 04:20

Austin wrote:What you are suggesting is a worst option Putin would have taken.

Rolling Russian Army into Sovereign Ukraine would be an act of war which in worst case would be full scale war between Ukraine and Russia and in best case a very prolonged insurgency operation ala US intervention in Iraq.

East of Ukraine is not Crimea where Russian Navy had base with thousands of troops and most population over 80 % Russians hence defacto Russian Territory ethnically.

The best option for all the party in the conflict would be grant maximum autonomy to Donbass and Lugansk Region with ability to do free trade with Russia .....The Worst option for all the party would be a frozen conflict where Russia recognises the region of Donbass and Lugansk while ROW does not along similar lines of Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions

In late March \ early April there wouldn't have been a Ukrainian army for the Russians to have a "full scale war" with. At that time western Ukraine was in total disarray and support for succession in eastern Ukraine was very high. The Russians could have rolled in as "peacekeepers" and any troops loyal to Kiev would have retreated or simply deserted.

The way things are now, I'm not sure they could have turned out much worse for the Russians. They have acheived nothing strategically, western sanctions have sent their economy into the sh*tter, and W. Ukraine is getting its gas from elsewhere now. So the Russians aren't even getting a chunk of those billions the EU has promised Ukraine.

This whole episode is a good example of the folly of half-measures. Putin went with a series of half-measures when he should have gone all the way, ultimately leaving the Russians worse off than if they'd just sat there and done nothing at all.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 15 Nov 2014 09:30

Ukraine is getting its gas from elsewhere now

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Nov 2014 09:58

Y. Kanan wrote: The way things are now, I'm not sure they could have turned out much worse for the Russians. They have acheived nothing strategically, western sanctions have sent their economy into the sh*tter, and W. Ukraine is getting its gas from elsewhere now. So the Russians aren't even getting a chunk of those billions the EU has promised Ukraine.

This whole episode is a good example of the folly of half-measures. Putin went with a series of half-measures when he should have gone all the way, ultimately leaving the Russians worse off than if they'd just sat there and done nothing at all.

the basic premise is wrong. So whatever is built up on it is also incorrect. If you ask me the Russians have achieved whatever objective they set out for in Ukraine, primarily because it's in their neighbourhood and they have the power projection to change status quo as they desire. What USA can do there is limited to starting a fire, which way it blows is in Russia's hands.

Looking at the way things are set up in Ukraine, it seems Russia's objective was to build a wall of fire between Western Ukraine and Russia. And this wall-of-fire is getting shifted westwards all the time.

If Russia wanted to take an independent foreign policy, it should have made it's markets independent of western managed institutions. It did not happen until now because they needed an impetus, a shock that propped them towards that direction. It is happening now. They will have to bear some pain for a few years but it will be immensely beneficial in medium term and long term.

The oil price crash that you are witnessing now is in no small measure due to Russia. The western elite are trying to teach Russia a lesson but the consumers all over the world are benefitting. Finish off the oil before the next boom and Russia would have done the world the biggest favor.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Nov 2014 10:07

Y. Kanan wrote:
Austin wrote:What you are suggesting is a worst option Putin would have taken.

Rolling Russian Army into Sovereign Ukraine would be an act of war which in worst case would be full scale war between Ukraine and Russia and in best case a very prolonged insurgency operation ala US intervention in Iraq.

East of Ukraine is not Crimea where Russian Navy had base with thousands of troops and most population over 80 % Russians hence defacto Russian Territory ethnically.

The best option for all the party in the conflict would be grant maximum autonomy to Donbass and Lugansk Region with ability to do free trade with Russia .....The Worst option for all the party would be a frozen conflict where Russia recognises the region of Donbass and Lugansk while ROW does not along similar lines of Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions
In late March \ early April there wouldn't have been a Ukrainian army for the Russians to have a "full scale war" with. At that time western Ukraine was in total disarray and support for succession in eastern Ukraine was very high. The Russians could have rolled in as "peacekeepers" and any troops loyal to Kiev would have retreated or simply deserted.

The way things are now, I'm not sure they could have turned out much worse for the Russians. They have acheived nothing strategically, western sanctions have sent their economy into the sh*tter, and W. Ukraine is getting its gas from elsewhere now. So the Russians aren't even getting a chunk of those billions the EU has promised Ukraine.

This whole episode is a good example of the folly of half-measures. Putin went with a series of half-measures when he should have gone all the way, ultimately leaving the Russians worse off than if they'd just sat there and done nothing at all.

Looking at your post it seems to me you want Russia to fall in the trap west has created by rolling into E Ukraine ... If you follow Russia strategy you would realise it prefers Frozen Conflict rather than outright annexation ( Crimea being the only exception )

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 15 Nov 2014 10:08

RSoami wrote:
Ukraine is getting its gas from elsewhere now

If in those parts only the Russian network can supply gas in any reasonable quantity then by implication all the money is going to the Russians, whichever route it takes. What matters if, the money comes from the right pocket of the consumer or the left one?

In fact Russians should now go full throttle and have its own guys in western ukraine, tell the neo-nazis there that the west owes them everything and the west is reneging on its moral responsibility.

This singular sense of entitlement will do more damage to both the neo-nazis and the west then all the tank-riding and boom-boom. The west asked for it. Let it, have it. It should be Putin's job to see to it that west ukraine has a bigger sense of entitlement from the west then even the Pakis.

habal · Post by **habal** » 15 Nov 2014 10:17

Lithuania was supplying gas to Ukraine from it's own stocks that it received from Russia. Now Russian's have stopped supply to Lithuania.