Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 09 Jan 2015 20:29

George,

That is misreporting.

1. "Boeing will not be sourcing 30% of its components worth hundreds of crores of rupees from the RIL". Boeing by contract has to obey the 30% offset clause. RAL is trying to get some of that business. Again, there experience is 0 in making any of those products.

2. Whether the plane will be bought or not is in question, how can orders for its wings be awarded to RAL?

What Dassault wants us to believe is that that it can help Reliance with NO EXPERIENCE AT ALL to set up a factory to produce Rafale's wings. But it can't help HAL to do so because its Nashik unit is not state-of-art. The Nashik unit builds the Su-30s whose production technology is a generation behind Rafale's but many generations ahead of no-planes-at-all. No unbiased person will buy that.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 09 Jan 2015 21:16

indranilroy wrote: 2. Whether the plane will be bought or not is in question, how can orders for its wings be awarded to RAL?

They were awarded the wing pending approval of the contract.

indranilroy wrote: What Dassault wants us to believe is that that it can help Reliance with NO EXPERIENCE AT ALL to set up a factory to produce Rafale's wings. But it can't help HAL to do so because its Nashik unit is not state-of-art. The Nashik unit builds the Su-30s whose production technology is a generation behind Rafale's but many generations ahead of no-planes-at-all. No unbiased person will buy that.

The current facility is irrelevant, everything will have to be new.

So who is better equipped to build a new facility and make the necessary investments?

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 09 Jan 2015 22:32

If that is the reason, Dassault should just say that. What is all this drama of HAL can't absord ToT, while RAL can!!!

For me it is quite obvious, Dassault wants to part with as less as it can. RAL is colluding with them for profit. Indian MoD is rightly standing its ground in India's interest.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jan 2015 22:58

@GeorgeWelch,

The Rafale "ToT" has a bigger role to play. A role that Reliance cannot play.

Since Reliance has no history in this area, they cannot appreciate the delta.

As a consequence Reliance has no clue what it is to 'absorb" the newer technologies - they will treat it like they did with the O&G company they stood up - not an acceptable thought.

And, finally they will be in no position nor have the incentive to disseminate what they have "absorbed" to others, like the AMCA project which will not be under them. I would nto be surprised if Dassault itself prevents others from visiting a Reliance manufacturing plant or places huge restrictions.

Besides, it is very bad idea because Dassault will use Reliance to manipulate the situation for the duration of the Rafale in IAF colors.

This plane is a great plane. But not that great if Dassault cannot behave itself. can do without it. Will have to do without it.

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 09 Jan 2015 23:57

Why don't we just airlift all our gold and FOREX reserves to Dassault HQ.

You need two hands for clapping. Dassault must have some serious pull in India to run this TAMASHA and not be kicked out eons ago. If this goes through after all of this then it will be a real shocker. It will broadcast a big signal to everyone in the world about us.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 09 Jan 2015 23:59

indranilroy wrote:For me it is quite obvious, Dassault wants to part with as less as it can. RAL is colluding with them for profit. Indian MoD is rightly standing its ground in India's interest.

The amount India is paying will be fixed in the contract regardless of whether HAL or Reliance is doing the final assembly.

If Reliance thinks they can pay some kickback to Dassault and still make a profit for the same amount that HAL would get, what does that say about HAL?

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 10 Jan 2015 00:11

NRao wrote:The Rafale "ToT" has a bigger role to play. A role that Reliance cannot play.

What?

HAL has repeatedly gotten these 'screwdriver' jobs and done NOTHING with them. That's not my opinion, I've heard that repeated countlessly on here.

You bemoan the lack of a private aerospace industry, here's your chance to jumpstart it. Reliance are no fools, I trust them to make the most of their opportunity.

NRao wrote:Since Reliance has no history in this area, they cannot appreciate the delta.

As a consequence Reliance has no clue what it is to 'absorb" the newer technologies

More likely, they don't have bad habits to break about the old way of doing stuff.

NRao wrote:And, finally they will be in no position nor have the incentive to disseminate what they have "absorbed" to others

That's fine, that's the foundation of having a private industry. Reliance is not the only company that will be contracted with. Other companies will get the chance to build their expertise. But expertise isn't simply an institutional-level thing, it is very much a part of the people. So Reliance will build a cadre of trained workers and managers, and then other companies will recruit some of those workers away and try to improve their own expertise. It's called competition.

NRao wrote:Besides, it is very bad idea because Dassault will use Reliance to manipulate the situation for the duration of the Rafale in IAF colors.

How so?

I think it should be clear that I'm no French/Dassault fan, but so much of these concerns are absolute nonsense and in fact counter to supporting a strong Indian aerospace industry.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 10 Jan 2015 00:17

GeorgeWelch wrote: The amount India is paying will be fixed in the contract regardless of whether HAL or Reliance is doing the final assembly.

If Reliance thinks they can pay some kickback to Dassault and still make a profit for the same amount that HAL would get, what does that say about HAL?

It says nothing! Reliance can just gulp down the ToT-money, pass a cut to Rafale and learn nothing by assembling SKD/CKD kits.

This is not the goal of this project. An important role of the license production in India is to be able to reach autonomy in designing and building all kinds of planes. Hence we are ready to pay extra for ToT. There is a cost of learning, and we know it! Russian-built Su-30s were cheaper than SKD-built Su-30s in India, which in turn were cheaper than CKD-built Su-30s in India which were in turn cheaper (initially) than Su-30s built completely raw materials in India. This is obvious, because we are trying to train our men to biuild these planes. We are coming up with an entire network of 2nd and 3rd-tier suppliers in MSMEs to indeginize many parts.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 10 Jan 2015 00:21

indranilroy wrote:If that is the reason, Dassault should just say that. What is all this drama of HAL can't absord ToT, while RAL can!!!

Did Dassault actually give "HAL can't absorb ToT?" as a reason? I thought it was zero confidence in HAL's ability to deliver in required time and quality. Given HAL's track record, can anyone honestly take issue with the fear of taking full responsibility for HAL's actions? Also, "it was in the original contract" is not conclusive evidence of bad faith since we haven't heard form the French side about this. Nobody here knows for sure what was in the original agreement and all we are depending on is "sources" brought to us by our lily white DDM. Sheesh.

For me it is quite obvious, Dassault wants to part with as less as it can. RAL is colluding with them for profit. Indian MoD is rightly standing its ground in India's interest.

How is this obvious? To me it would be extremely idiotic for Dassault to willfully bypass, ignore or subvert the intent and purpose of the signed agreement. RIL is definitely angling for maximum profit as it is the duty of every company that answers to stockholders. Whether it is doing so at the expense of India can be debated. IMO Dassault went with the party they though had the most qualifications to enable a successful conclusion for them, Reliance and India, period.

Finally, do we really want to believe that Modi, Parrikar and IAF will stand by like nannha munnas and wring their hands while Reliance and Dassault loot India? Please.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Jan 2015 00:23

Reliance will simply denude HAL and related ancillary industries of their experienced manpower, just as the Tata's have done in hyderabad and L&T have also done in other locations.

This is not so good for the affected companies or even the country which has already invested in infrastructure and manpower.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 10 Jan 2015 00:24

We want our private sector to come up in aerospace, and to one day compete if not surpass our public sector. But what Dassault is trying to do with Reliance is to collude to make windfall profits without parting with any know how that India had decided to attain from this project. Technology from Rafale production is supposed to be pumped into LCA and AMCA production. And India should not lose that focus if this deal is to be inked.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Jan 2015 00:30

indranilroy wrote:We want our private sector to come up in aerospace, and to one day compete if not surpass our public sector. But what Dassault is trying to do with Reliance is to collude to make windfall profits without parting with any know how that India had decided to attain from this project. Technology from Rafale production is supposed to be pumped into LCA and AMCA production. And India should not lose that focus if this deal is to be inked.

Between rafale and reliance, which one is more rapacious or is this a trick question??

reliance raped us in the oil business and will continue to do so. the next cash cow is the aerospace business with slick loophole filled contracts. What next?? a reliance JV for launch vehicles undercutting ISRO??

Is it not the same $%^& colonial masters coming back in another avatar?? helped by another already existing east India company resident incountry.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 10 Jan 2015 00:36

Victor wrote:
indranilroy wrote:If that is the reason, Dassault should just say that. What is all this drama of HAL can't absord ToT, while RAL can!!!
Did Dassault actually give "HAL can't absorb ToT?" as a reason? I thought it was zero confidence in HAL's ability to deliver in required time and quality. Given HAL's track record, can anyone honestly take issue with the fear of taking full responsibility for HAL's actions? Also, "it was in the original contract" is not conclusive evidence of bad faith since we haven't heard form the French side about this. Nobody here knows for sure what was in the original agreement and all we are depending on is "sources" brought to us by our lily white DDM. Sheesh.

I agree with the rest of this comment except for the emboldened part. If you have a problem with HAL's 6-decades worth of track record in aviation, then you should have a problem with Reliance's 0 track record in aviation. But, experience shows that you wouldn't. So I have nothing to say.

Victor wrote:
For me it is quite obvious, Dassault wants to part with as less as it can. RAL is colluding with them for profit. Indian MoD is rightly standing its ground in India's interest.
How is this obvious? To me it would be extremely idiotic for Dassault to willfully bypass, ignore or subvert the intent and purpose of the signed agreement. RIL is definitely angling for maximum profit as it is the duty of every company that answers to stockholders. Whether it is doing so at the expense of India can be debated. IMO Dassault went with the party they though had the most qualifications to enable a successful conclusion for them, Reliance and India, period.

The emboldened part really made me laugh. Of all the aero-companies in India, Reliance has the least experience. Let me remind you of the other companies which are more qualified. TASL, Mahindra, Godrej, Taneja. Reliance has absolutely NO QUALIFICATION!

Victor wrote: Finally, do we really want to believe that Modi, Parrikar and IAF will stand by like nannha munnas and wring their hands while Reliance and Dassault loot India? Please.

Earlier, when people explained principles of aerodynamics to you from books and papers, you went into a rhetoric saying said to believe those theories a decorated Indian officer must be called a traitor! This is the same kind of rhetoric. What makes Modi/Parrikar an expert in aviation industry?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Jan 2015 00:39

Fact is the country benefits from TOT and high level manufacturing tech, that will be paid for as part of this deal only IF it is used in subsequent development/production.

So AMCA, to benefit from the TOT and the Manufacturing tech for which India will pay extra, will have to be built with the same firm as the Rafale.

So unless Reliance participates in the DEVELOPMENT and later production of AMCA Rafale production cannot be given to them. IF HAL is to participate in the development and production of AMCA the Rafale job HAS to go to it for India to derive any benefit from the extra paid for TOT.

Is Reliance being roped in as a developmental partner of the AMCA project?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 10 Jan 2015 00:43

If there was even an inkling of what you guys are saying here, Dassault would have been shown the door on May 17, 2013, the day after Modi came to office. The guy is a born businessman and has the smarts to see thru the crudest of tactics. Where's the faith that brought a miracle to India.

I would rather depend on Reliance for weapons than HAL simply because Reliance has far greater self-preservation instincts than HAL. The fact that they are cold, hardcore businessmen is totally irrelevant when my life is in danger.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Jan 2015 00:47

While Dassault has not been thrown out Modi ji has not given in to its demand to partner with Reliance. Infact, the current GOI is pushing Dassault hard to comply with the original term as they (GOI) understand it.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 10 Jan 2015 00:52

indranilroy wrote:Earlier, when people explained principles of aerodynamics to you from books and papers, you went into a rhetoric saying said to believe those theories a decorated Indian officer must be called a traitor!

I must be getting old because I don't remember making a statement anything like this. I didn't refute any of the book-quoting either, just put it in the right perspective per my understanding.

What makes Modi/Parrikar an expert in aviation industry?

They have the good sense to listen to the IAF. What has the aviation industry got to do with our immediate and urgent need? That's a long-term goal that will fall into place as we go along.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 10 Jan 2015 01:01

Victor wrote:If there was even an inkling of what you guys are saying here, Dassault would have been shown the door on May 17, 2013, the day after Modi came to office. The guy is a born businessman and has the smarts to see thru the crudest of tactics. Where's the faith that brought a miracle to India.

Victor wrote: They have the good sense to listen to the IAF. What has the aviation industry got to do with our immediate and urgent need? That's a long-term goal that will fall into place as we go along.

And if their actions are any sign of what they believe in, then they don't agree with you at all!

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 10 Jan 2015 01:05

pankajs wrote:While Dassault has not been thrown out Modi ji has not given in to its demand to partner with Reliance. Infact, the current GOI is pushing Dassault hard to comply with the original term as they (GOI) understand it.

Correct. And Dassault has steadfastly refused to cave in to this "hard pushing" for over a year. What does this tell us?

My guess is that this "unlimited responsibility" BS was inserted by folks who intended harm to India by crippling critical procurements. It is not followed anywhere else in the world but has successfully kept critical technology and capital from entering India. It makes absolutely no sense and I believe that BJP will get rid of it just as it did the "no agent" mandate which was also an idiotic rule. I also believe that the French are not fools to knowingly and brazenly flout a written agreement. All Parrikar has said so far is "we are in a jam and I can't talk about it now". The story is far from over and the deadline is approaching fast.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 10 Jan 2015 01:28

Victor wrote:
pankajs wrote:While Dassault has not been thrown out Modi ji has not given in to its demand to partner with Reliance. Infact, the current GOI is pushing Dassault hard to comply with the original term as they (GOI) understand it.
Correct. And Dassault has steadfastly refused to cave in to this "hard pushing" for over a year. What does this tell us?

My guess is that this "unlimited responsibility" BS was inserted by folks who intended harm to India by crippling critical procurements. It is not followed anywhere else in the world but has successfully kept critical technology and capital from entering India. It makes absolutely no sense and I believe that BJP will get rid of it just as it did the "no agent" mandate which was also an idiotic rule. I also believe that the French are not fools to knowingly and brazenly flout a written agreement. All Parrikar has said so far is "we are in a jam and I can't talk about it now". The story is far from over and the deadline is approaching fast.

No sir, what Parrikar has openly said in no unclear terms is: Abide by the clauses in the RFP, or we would get Su-30s instead at half the price. A very big difference!

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 10 Jan 2015 02:18

Victor wrote: Correct. And Dassault has steadfastly refused to cave in to this "hard pushing" for over a year. What does this tell us?

It tells us Dassault is craftily trying to move the goalpost and nullify some RFP clauses, now that they've got L1.

Not the fancy CT you propose.

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 10 Jan 2015 03:48

Trying to maintain some objectivity here-

Data points for comparison -
http://aviationweek.com/awin/italy-take ... -f-35-faco
http://breakingdefense.com/2013/11/less ... -for-asia/

Cost of localization of final assembly and checkout facility - 1 Billion $ for F-35 in Italy

One thing to note is that there is a significant difference in building a 4.5 gen or lower gen plane versus a 'true' 5th gen plane. For example the Italian setup will include a final paint facility for the F-35 as well as the only ATF (Acceptance Test Facility for verifying the F-35 radar signature) in Europe (quoting from the article).

Point 1 - We are chasing the wrong goose here - Rafale is no 5th gen plane and neither does it demand something spectacular compared to HAL infrastructure where we do an awesome screwdriver job on MKI and all. RAFALE WILL NOT TAKE US MUCH FURTHER FOR AMCA OR PAKFA MANUFACTURING. Even the French don't know anything about manufacturing 5th Gen planes to begin with - Why bet on a two legged horse.

Point 2 - Manufacturing a plane gives 'zero' experience in designing a plane. Plenty of consultants float around the world for manufacturing expertise for 4.5 gen planes. WE DESIGNED AND ARE NOW BUILDING LCA, SO WHY THIS WEAK SPINE. CHINA DID IT WITHOUT ANYONE'S HELP. DON't SPOIL THE CHILD PLEASE.

Point 3 - This job creation and investment is loads of BS - only worth it if other countries are buying Rafale and we 'service' them. Check out how the Italians ponied up 1 billion $ for estimated 10 billion $ contracts servicing F35 fleet in Europe and Middle east. HOW MANY INTERNATIONAL CUSTOMERS ARE SIGNING UP FOR RAFALE TO RECOVER OUR INVESTMENT? NONE

A bit of sarcasm - How about we buy (or get back) the Indian 'Crown' Jewels from the UK Royals instead?

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 10 Jan 2015 08:12

Nik, good points. How about for a start we place an order for 500 Arjuns? Followed by an order for 100 LCAs? It is easy to talk about "Make in India". Very tough in a country like India to actually implement it.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Jan 2015 12:36

What about the report yesterday about the first MKI being overhauled entirely in the country ? HAL when it is tasked can absorb the required tech,if its nose it put to the grindstone.But asking Reliance to build aircraft is rewarding Mr.Ambani with the prize-winning lottery tkt without him even having to buy it! Had Tatas,L&T or any other corporate giant which already is supplying the services with weaponry/components been chosen by Dassault it would've been understandable.

Many years ago,BAe acquired a Dutch co.Ballast Nedam.That co. was a major construction giant which built the bridge between Saudi Arabia to Bahrein.Why did BAe buy it? To secure the Tornado deal! Ballast Nedam had allegedly such good contacts with the Saudis that they were acquired! British sales of aircraft to the Saudis have repeatedly been controversial with allegations of huge kickbacks and the Br. go t. has successfully stalled any penetrative inquiry into the same on the grounds of national interest. It appears that Reliance was similarly roped in because of its being a bum-chum of the UPA. Had the "R co." acquired abroad an aircraft manufacturer it could've passed muster. If Dassault cannot cut costs substantially,than goodbye Raffy.With the DM's open statement about MKI costs,one can expect the Russians to make full use of the window of opportunity that has opened,to sweeten a deal of an alternative package.

kit · Post by **kit** » 11 Jan 2015 16:31

|You hit the nail on the head Philip !..Dassault was trying to do a Al Yamamah on India

http://www.theguardian.com/baefiles/pag ... 31,00.html

kit · Post by **kit** » 11 Jan 2015 16:34

Mandatory reading for anyone interested in the murky deals of arms world !!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/bae

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 12 Jan 2015 03:54

Rafale deal hits rough weather

NEW DELHI: India plans to take a final call, one way or the other, on the gigantic $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project to acquire 126 French Rafale fighters before Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits France and Germany in April.

Sources said the defence ministry is now hopping mad with French aviation major Dassault's continuing refusal to take "ownership" of the 108 Rafale fighters which are to be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) in India with transfer of technology after the first 18 jets are delivered off-the-shelf to IAF.

The MoD is also upset with Dassault's attempts to "change the price line", which led to its selection over the Eurofighter Typhoon as the L-1 (lowest bidder) three years ago, by deciding the "costing" for HAL on its own. "It will amount to a de facto hike in the L-1 price," said a source.

If Dassault continues to renege from its earlier commitments, refusing to be "fully compliant" with the original RFP (request for proposal), India will be left with no option but to scrap the entire MMRCA project despite having invested almost a decade in the selection process. Incidentally, the defence procurement policy and Central Vigilance Commission guidelines do not allow the L-2 (Typhoon) to re-enter the negotiations.

As was first reported by TOI, even though 90% of the draft contract is ready, the finalization of the complex MMRCA project has been stuck for almost a year now due to Dassault's reluctance to stand guarantee for the fighters to be made in India in terms of liquidity damages and production timelines.

Sources said defence minister Manohar Parrikar has written to his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian that India was still awaiting the "empowered" delegation he had promised to send to resolve the imbroglio. The two ministers had decided to "fast-track" the negotiations during talks in New Delhi on December 1.

"The ball is firmly in the French court. India cannot allow any violation of the RFP in such a mega project, nor can it afford to let the negotiations drag on endlessly. A final call has to be taken, one way or the other," said the source.

If the MMRCA project is indeed scrapped, it will bring to an end the mega fighter selection process launched by India way back in August 2007. This "mother of all defence deals" had global aviation majors salivating at the prospect of bagging the lucrative deal.

After extensive field trials by IAF test pilots, Swedish Gripen, Russian MiG-35, American F/A-18 'Super Hornet' and F-16 'Super Viper' were ejected out of the high-voltage competition.

Subsequently, the commercial bids of the two remaining contenders -- Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS), backed by UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, and French Rafale (Dassault) - were opened in November 2011.

Rafale was then declared the winner in January 2012, having beaten the Typhoon both on direct cost of acquisition as well as "life-cycle costs'' of operating the fighters over a 40-year period with 6,000 hours of flying. But the final commercial negotiations with Dassault have progressed at a glacial pace since then.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Jan 2015 06:19

indranilroy wrote:
....
No sir, what Parrikar has openly said in no unclear terms is: Abide by the clauses in the RFP, or we would get Su-30s instead at half the price. A very big difference!

And then if we get our way on the 'clauses' in the RFP, is paying double worth the victory? Especially if Parrikar thinks the SU-30 can do the Rafale job?

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 12 Jan 2015 07:22

VinodTK wrote:Rafale deal hits rough weather
NEW DELHI: India plans to take a final call, one way or the other, on the gigantic $20 billion MMRCA

Good. End of a tragi-comic episode.

Sources said ...yada..yada..yada

Ah, good ol "sources". What would paid media do without these nameless lifafas and/or figments of imagination?

Incidentally, the defence procurement policy and Central Vigilance Commission guidelines do not allow the L-2 (Typhoon) to re-enter the negotiations.

Now we're talking. Almost certainly, India is not going to enter into another bidding tamasha. Equally certainly, IAF is not going to accept more Sukhois and MoD will listen to IAF. So the only 2 choices remaining are MiG-35 and Super Hornet in a govt-to-govt deal. Which will come sooner? Which will give us better capabilities vs the chinese? Which will have better long-term support?

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 12 Jan 2015 07:33

@ Victor - Please wake up and realize that Mig-35 is a fish long dead and not in consideration for MMRCA. Hornet is at end of its evolution but has only one thing going for it - commonality of engines with LCA, not enough though.

Instead of spending $ 60 million on Super Hornet, IAF might as well pony up 30~40% more for F-35. More likely MMRCA will be closed and we will focus on LCA-MK2 and AMCA going ahead.

nash · Post by **nash** » 12 Jan 2015 07:45

VinodTK wrote:Rafale deal hits rough weather

If above article is true then 40-50 MKIs order is on horizon possibly by end of this year and MAY be India look into the FMS deal of F-35(70-80).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2015 08:11

IF Dassault keeps this up, the GoFr may have to pick up some of tab.

This could also be a game played by both: Dassault + the GoFr. This "empowered" team could also be a gimmick - part of that game.

For sure they tried to corner the wrong person.

Finally, with what confidence can India move forward? They may reboot in another 5/10 years and decide to deprive India of critical spares/whatever.

Greed has to have some limit.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Jan 2015 08:15

I think the Rafale Deal will go through , Its just that Dassault is trying to bargain more as time closes and trying to get a good deal from company perspective . As any good corporate they would like to get into more favorable negotiation term , this is a bread and butter deal for Dassult for next atleast 30 years and they are perhaps looking at long term goals in negotiations.

From our pov we should stick to the RFP and negotiate keeping it as baseline.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 12 Jan 2015 08:23

nik wrote: Instead of spending $ 60 million on Super Hornet, IAF might as well pony up 30~40% more for F-35. More likely MMRCA will be closed and we will focus on LCA-MK2 and AMCA going ahead.

Agreed in toto. This is the most sensible way to proceed (F-35, LCA2, AMCA). But the most likely is SH, LCA2, AMCA simply because of time factor. We'd be last in a long line of countries waiting for F-35.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 12 Jan 2015 08:31

Austin wrote:I think the Rafale Deal will go through , Its just that Dassault is trying to bargain more as time closes and trying to get a good deal from company perspective . As any good corporate they would like to get into more favorable negotiation term , this is a bread and butter deal for Dassult for next atleast 30 years and they are perhaps looking at long term goals in negotiations.

From our pov we should stick to the RFP and negotiate keeping it as baseline.

If Rafale goes thru it will most likely be because we buckled. No way is Dassault or French govt going to accept HAL-based risks without heavy insurance premiums to protect their company. Nobody will. Maybe, as NRao says, the French govt might pick up these premiums. OTOH if neither of these work, Dassault will choose the least bad option and walk out. Try as I might, I simply can't see it any other way but would be very pleased to be proved wrong.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2015 08:42

. .

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 12 Jan 2015 08:55

Move the F-35 discussion off Rafale and MMRCA thread.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2015 09:10

If Rafale goes thru it will most likely be because we buckled. No way is Dassault or French govt going to accept HAL-based risks without heavy insurance premiums to protect their company. Nobody will. Maybe, as NRao says, the French govt might pick up these premiums. OTOH if neither of these work, Dassault will choose the least bad option and walk out. Try as I might, I simply can't see it any other way but would be very pleased to be proved wrong.

No sane company would do what Dassault has done - just not possible. Dassault *over played their cards* - betting that India has no options. Parrikar called their bluff, when he said we have an adequate option.

On the L1 price: I bet they had built this mark up when they bid with the "L1".

IF true, then the L1 price point projects a loss for Dassault. And, there is no way they can go back from the current asking price. Even if their Government steps in - just no way.

I suspect it is the same thing with the other issue: guaranteeing the end product HAL would produce. They bid knowing they could not carry that risk at that price point.

As I see it, there is at least a difference of $5 billion between the GoI and Dassault. Will or can the Fr gov cover that? Doubt it.

Then I am sure a billion or so to carry the risk of HAL produced products.

I think Dassault made a very bad corporate and commercial decision. Bad for her stock holders.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Jan 2015 10:40

For commonality sake, we could see a mix of Mig29 + MKI replacing the Rafale (in numbers) but the GOI willing to negotiate means we are still *very* interested in Rafale if *reasonable* terms can be worked out.

Mig29 + MKI should be our fallback option just because we already have them in service. It is not only about cost but infra, training, tactics, logistic train, etc. Also the quickest to do.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 12 Jan 2015 10:49

Su-30 MKI's and Tejas. The production of Tejas need to be doubled to 30 aircraft per year. The money can go into it.
By 2025 we must have a combination of only four different types of aircraft in service.

Tejas MK-I, II and AMCA
PAK-FA and Su-30 MKI (later can be replaced with AMCA MK-II)