Indian investments thread

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Jan 2015 21:01

Another website that lists some of the latest Company Research / Stock Recommendations from leading brokers/analysts. Use these reports for idea generation but do your own research/number crunching/thinking before putting any money.

http://www.indianotes.com/research-anal ... alysis.php

The good part is that you can get these reports delivered via RSS. The site has other interesting information too.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Jan 2015 11:06

cross-post
------------------->
http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... yan-target
Have set a target of constructing 30 kms a day in two years, says Nitin Gadkari

MUMBAI: Nitin Gadkari, the minister of road transport and highways, has set himself a target of constructing 30 kms a day in two years and investment of Rs 5 lakh crore investment in road and highway sector in the coming five years.

If you can figure out how to play this you have a 5,00,000 cr opportunity.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Jan 2015 11:12

cross post

http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... al-sectors
Rs 1 lakh-crore orders soon for power, mining equipment: Piyush Goyal

NEW DELHI: The power and coal sectors will shortly issue orders worth over Rs 1 lakh crore for various projects, including four new giant power projects, Piyush Goyal, Union minister of coal, power and renewable energy, has said. The orders will also include mining operations and energy efficiency equipment.

...
This will be a big boost for equipment suppliers and other companies that have been starved of orders due to the economic slowdown. "NTPC is going to double its generation capacity, little more than double. Energy Efficiency Service Ltd is going to buy at least Rs 10,000 crore of energy efficiency equipment, all made in India. (At) Coal India, we need equipment, to ramp up production. I need mining equipment. It's going to do a lot of ordering. I'm going to order wagons, probably worth Rs 5,000 crore. Then the stalled projects, hydel projects. Transmission is the biggest of them all, about Rs 40,000 crore," Goyal said.

He said bids for four ultra-mega power projects (UMPPs) would be invited in the next three to six months. "These four proposed UMPPs include two for which we have cancelled the bid and we will be inviting fresh bids, and two more have been identified — one in Bihar and another in Jharkhand," Goyal said.

If you can figure out how to play this you have a 1,00,000 cr opportunity.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Jan 2015 16:53

cross post

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 849377.cms
Modified defence procurement policy in three months: Manohar Parrikar

Sanjay Garg, the defence ministry's joint secretary, said that in the next 7-8 years, the capital budget for modernization of armed forces is going to be $130 billion. This is the perfect condition for any company to come to India.

There is a $130 Billion capital budget. Lots of opportunity in defense manufacturing. If you can pick some of the winners you can make some serious money here.

archan · Post by **archan** » 13 Jan 2015 06:44

How does one go about with the right research? Just news? This needs to be done outside the day job.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 13 Jan 2015 13:01

Outlook business has a list of 10 stock picks from 10 different analysts. Looks interesting to me...clicky

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Jan 2015 16:20

archan wrote:How does one go about with the right research? Just news? This needs to be done outside the day job.

Very difficult for Individual investor even on full time basis. At our individual level the best we can hope for is to *borrow* from others who have a good track record. Better to be *shameless* copycats and make money than try being *original* and lose money.

http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/i-have-no ... sh-pabrai/

“I have no original ideas. Almost everything in our portfolio is cloned from some other investor that I admire”. “The wonderful part of the business is that I still get paid” Mohnish added, much to the merriment of the distinguished audience.

Read it in full and watch the embedded video. Incorporate as much of it as you can into your process/checklist. I do not recommend "Concentrated Portfolio" for new investors. It requires a different mindset and deep understanding of the companies that are in your portfolios.

Some of the places to look for new ideas.
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/
http://www.indianotes.com/research-anal ... alysis.php
http://www.dsij.in/research/stock-tips.aspx
http://www.valuepickr.com/
<Any other website that aggregates Analyst research reports>

Folks pls add to this list. Read the investment rational/logic/story that is provided and see if it makes sense to you. Check that the projected growth is better than 20% and ROE is also > 20 if it is not a turnaround story.

>> Volume Shockers, http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/mark ... vshockers/
>> Lastly, the ALL Time High list. Stocks make it here for a reason.

The above 2 will provide new ideas BUT you will have to do all the work. Google to check recent news/announcement on the stock in question. Also search for recent analyst reports if any.

archan · Post by **archan** » 13 Jan 2015 16:40

Thanks! good post.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Jan 2015 17:02

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 868443.cms
We have collated a list of stocks which investors can look at accumulating on declines in the year 2015:

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 13 Jan 2015 22:02

+1001 Awesome post, pankajs!

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 15 Jan 2015 11:16

In general Interest rates act like a gravity for the stock markets. That means bull markets thrive during low interest rate periods and it is very difficult to get raging bull markets during high interest rate periods.

We are in a sweet-spot right now with falling energy/commodity prices, falling interest rates and excellent Govt in the saddle.

Hold tight and get ready for a fantastic bull run

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 18 Jan 2015 14:38

Motilal Oswal 19th Wealth Creation Study - Part 1

Ramdeo Agarwal, the author of the study, making his presentation. Lot of learning. Worth watching multiple times to fully appreciate and imbibe the ideas being shared.

To skip the introduction and move to Ramdeo's presentation Start @ 10:00 min. He spends the first 13 mins reviewing the market/stocks of the last 5 years talking about the biggest, the fastest and the most consistent wealth creators.

To go to the meat of the study starting @ 23:00 min. Starting @ 37:03 he outlines his thesis of finding/riding 100x companies. The investment process, etc.

Compounding @ ~26% for 10 years gives you 10x i.e 10 bagger.
Compounding @ ~26% for 20 years gives you 100x i.e 100 bagger.

To benefit fully read the report.
http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-S ... tudy/11538

Added Later:
@ 40:00 min he talks of profit potential and he specifically identifies such sectors like Banking, Financial services, Pharma, IT, Consumer products. These are the sectors that have tailwind to help them along.

One of his key investment *Framework* is *Value Migration*. You will find him talking about it in almost all his interviews. It helped him identify one of his earliest and most spectacular successes with Hero Honda given the long-term value creation potential of the migration from Scooters to Motorcycles in India. He is very bullish on IT given what he terms the *biggest* value migration that is in progress. He talks of quite a few value migration ideas following that.

@ 45:00 min, He quotes Phil Fischer "90% is management, 9% is business and rest everything is 1%". He goes on to talk about valuation levers. Quite insightful.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 19 Jan 2015 21:07

Another Quarterly (Qtr ending Dec 31, 2014) result for Gruh Finance....

Revenue ~ 24.71% up
Net Profits ~ 26.96% up
EPS up ~ 25.84% up

Gross NPA = 0.57% of total loans
Net NPA = 0.07% (compared to NIL YoY)

member_28714 · Post by **member_28714** » 21 Jan 2015 18:34

George wrote:
archan wrote:Was thinking of buying LUPIN todin. It started the day at like 1315 and is already 1351.25. Wonder if it is still a good idea.

To close the first story, I did sell those 500 shares yesterday with a profit of about Rs. 5 each, making about Rs. 1300 post brokerage. Now I am looking to ease into some long term investing. Bought some shares of L&T today. Mighty expensive stuff!
George, it is OK to discuss companies in this thread.
Ok, kindly do your research before you buying into any of these. I cannot emphasize this point enough. These are only for people with high risk appetite. Most day these shares trade at either upper or lower circuit so it can be a nerve wracking experience.

Solar Energy
1) Indosolar
2) Moser Baer
3) Websol
4) XL Energy

Wind Energy
1) Suzlon
2) Indowind

My time horizon for these shares are in years, not months.

My primary investment in Indosolar is up 500% this year from Rs 2 to Rs 11.8 todays close. It has appreciated 100% since my recommendation date above (Sep 12th). In fact if not for moderator petulance that left me indisposed to the forum, I would have added a tip here two weeks back just before the latest upmove by 120%, from 5.8 levels to the current levels as there was enough indication of the results.

What has changed in 2 quarters? Revenues have gone up from 2.5 Crore to 104 Crore, up 40 times. Namo Namaha wonlee. The company is still valued at just 400 Cr. This was the first EBIT positive quarter in 3 years. Again, for those that want to make wealth in the markets and not just 2% more than Fixed deposits, grow a pair and take some risk.
And please, dont dismiss this as a penny stock, I know better.

Moser baer and websol energy is also up 40% since recommendation, however I booked profits in both and exited. I do Not reccommend Moser Baer anymore as Ratul Puri has completely squeezed out all the money there and started a new venture HPPPL. I continue to hold Suzlon, watch out for a 100% upmove before budget. There are talks of Senvion sale that will cut their debts by half. Indowind is also up 40% since recommendation, it is a hold and accumalate.

Happy investing all you senior peoples. If you are not in on the India renewables story, enjoy hindsight!

I'm outta here on my next assignement to Banland. Have fun kids.

btw, Lupin ... 25 PE ... lol

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 21 Jan 2015 21:13

George wrote:
Yea, that jewel just shed 5% today. congrats on recommending a tobacco company (with FMCG (and IT) as an excuse), when the new government is hell bent on cutting tobacco usage.

Hi George,

Congrats on your 5-bagger Indosolar. There are million ways of making/losing money in the markets and I can only talk about what makes sense to me

A single day gyration means nothing in stock market. I have clearly mentioned *long term* while mentioning about ITC. I do not think the "jewel" has lost any lustre

--Vamsee

archan · Post by **archan** » 21 Jan 2015 21:42

don't mind the ranting and a know-it-all attitude, there is a reason for it.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Jan 2015 22:06

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/stocks ... 80219.html

P Phani Sekhar of Karvy Stock Broking told CNBC-TV18, "When the investment cycle starts picking up ideally you look at capital good stocks and then you look at contractors etc. However having said that for quite sometime now for more than six months many of these stocks are more than fairly valued. Even if you expect investment cycle to pick up in the normal course then I do not see any major upsides accruing to the investor who is going to buy them now unless you wait for declines and buy them."

"I do not expect at very dramatic overnight improvement in investment cycle it will improve gradually. With gradual improvements gains will also happen gradually. So to that extent it is not a great idea to chase some of these typical investment cyclicals. While I am still a firm believer in banks and financial services, not just from a pre investment cycle point of view even when the investment cycle improves because one should remember that the investment cycle will be funded by at least 70 percent debt and the banks if they can make return on equity (ROE) of around 17 to 18 percent from the trough then it is a good idea to buy them, rather then the investment cyclicals which actually struggle to make even a 14 percent ROE," he said.

"Banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) will remain favourites but cap goods and on a case to case basis the construction companies can be looked at lower levels."

This is in line with an earlier post recco. to play banks incase you are unable to decide on sector or industry that benefits from recovery and growth. Invest in banks that aim for profit growth of ~20% and ROE of ~20%.

manish singh · Post by **manish singh** » 22 Jan 2015 08:39

Why the jhadga bhai log. Even Benjamin Graham's Intelligent Investor says that you should not park more than 10% of your portfolio in speculative stocks. But it is human to be speculative and it is ok to be so as long as you exercise restraint.

I am putting my 10% on Suzlon and Indosolar. Will keep churning this 10% quite regularly. The rest 90% HDFCs and Titans would be for the long term over years.

archan · Post by **archan** » 22 Jan 2015 08:42

Some people will find a way to get into a jhagda even when there is no reason to. Perhaps they have too much gyan to be on this forum. Let me help him on his way out.
Mr. George, keep your gyan to yourself. Baiting a mod is never a good idea. Goodbye.

manish singh · Post by **manish singh** » 22 Jan 2015 13:58

Any advice on mutual funds and equity linked savings scheme?

archan · Post by **archan** » 22 Jan 2015 16:14

My advisor suggested these, and I am holding these five: The growth I have seen so far is listed. The first two or three are the oldest, I think I bought them in September (hence higher growth) while the others I bought some time in Dec. I think.

1) HDFC Mid Cap Opportunities FUnd (G): 16%

2) L&T Business Cycles Fund (G): 16.3%

3) HDFC Infrastructure Fund (G): 9.6%

4) Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund (Growth): 6.3%

5) Kotak Select Focus Fund (G): 6.7%

I already park 1.5L in PPF so ELSS is no help for tax I guess. However I would still like to learn about it from the gurus. They come with a 3 year lock-in period - a point to consider.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 27 Jan 2015 12:23

Archan, Did you buy State Bank of India ?
I see more value in Pvt sector banks like Axis, ICICI and IndusInd (Which I sold at ~750).

I am waiting for the markets to cool off a bit for me to go out on shopping again

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 27 Jan 2015 13:30

Here is my shortlist based on Funds' track records in last 5-10 years. I intend to consolidate 80% of my investments in balanced funds (currently dispersed between several equity and debt funds 50-50).

Balanced

HDFC Balanced

ICICI Pru Balanced

HDFC Prudence

Birla Sunlife 95

Large & Mid Cap

ICICI Pru Dynamic

Mid & Small Cap

HDFC Midcap opportunities

Multi Cap

Franklin India High Growth

archan · Post by **archan** » 27 Jan 2015 14:21

VikasRaina wrote:Archan, Did you buy State Bank of India ?
I see more value in Pvt sector banks like Axis, ICICI and IndusInd (Which I sold at ~750).

I am waiting for the markets to cool off a bit for me to go out on shopping again

Some.
I exhausted all my cash, save for the very minimum for liquidity! Thankfully I don't touch wifey's earnings!

I was able to get some 29 shares of SBI @319, already had 120 of ICICI @362. SBI is marginally in green (2.5%), and ICICI has picked up well to get in green and then up to +6%. HDFC and HDFC bank have done well for me. I have 25 HDFC Bank @955 which is now at +12.3% and 25 HDFC@1194 which is at +10.3%. Before running out of fuel I got 2 Yes Bank shares

@830 which is now at 883.
Not sure if I should buy Axis and Yes bank after the salary comes.

They're getting a bit expensive.
Larsen, Lupin, Ambuja are my other gainers. So far this is only my side play as a learning exercise. I don't know what all those equity focused MFs and ULIPs are investing in for me.
Overall I am invested in direct equity with 2.82L and currently gaining 16.7k. Not bad but only aout 6.15% gain.
The L&T Business Cycle fund has given 16% in 5-6 months! obviously they know how to manage money.
I am looking to put some 20-25k into manufacturing and alternate energy focused stocks for long term. Like buy and forget for 5 years and wait for MoBama magic.

archan · Post by **archan** » 27 Jan 2015 14:24

So currently I have 5 MFs, what is a better strategy, to add to these or buy new ones like there is one manufacturing focused one out now. How many MFs should one ideally be looking for across sectors? I am thinking in terms of about 5L per year investment in MFs.

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 27 Jan 2015 16:31

archan wrote:So currently I have 5 MFs, what is a better strategy, to add to these or buy new ones like there is one manufacturing focused one out now. How many MFs should one ideally be looking for across sectors? I am thinking in terms of about 5L per year investment in MFs.

I'm a beginner when it comes to investment. I am planning invest small amounts in some MFs as a start. What's your recommendation for starting?

archan · Post by **archan** » 27 Jan 2015 18:52

Saar I'm also a kid in this arena. I've listed what I have and how much the returns are after 5 to 6 months. At this time I believe equity focused ones are a good bet.
Bharat ji has listed some good options as well.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 27 Jan 2015 21:44

Personally I only have 2 Mutual funds. Actually 1 mutual fund and 1 ETF.

The entire point of these things is to get fully diversified so whats the point in diversifying mutual funds?

Find an index tracking one and stick with it. Less stress and aggravation.
If you want to get adventurous. A Small Cap or a Mid Cap or a Large cap.
Don't get into the sector funds, too risk IMHO.

BTW be aware that mutual fund distributions are taxed and have to be declared.
So find one that distributes carefully for tax purposes.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 27 Jan 2015 22:13

Theo_Fidel wrote:Personally I only have 2 Mutual funds. Actually 1 mutual fund and 1 ETF.

The entire point of these things is to get fully diversified so whats the point in diversifying mutual funds?
Find an index tracking one and stick with it. Less stress and aggravation.
If you want to get adventurous. A Small Cap or a Mid Cap or a Large cap.
Don't get into the sector funds, too risk IMHO.

BTW be aware that mutual fund distributions are taxed and have to be declared.
So find one that distributes carefully for tax purposes.

India mein index funds are worse than mutual funds. Mutual funds have managers...and Indian companies have a lot of difference in the level of their management. Hence...any well managed company will outperform the Index.

Thus MF>Index fund for India. In US...they are the same or maybe Index fund is better since the entry and exit loads are absent .

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 27 Jan 2015 22:43

I think it is the same in USA. Active managed funds can provide better performance but can also provide worse performance. The last report I saw said 80% of mutual fund managers underperform the index. India isn't much different in this regard.

Index fund reduce risk so less stress and aggravation as I said. Less risk = less reward. but also = sound sleep at night.
----------------------

So I checked the Index fund list per link below.
Looks like index fund return is 11% -12% over 5 years which is pretty good IMHO.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-fund ... index.html

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 28 Jan 2015 05:32

Theo_Fidel wrote:I think it is the same in USA. Active managed funds can provide better performance but can also provide worse performance. The last report I saw said 80% of mutual fund managers underperform the index. India isn't much different in this regard.

Index fund reduce risk so less stress and aggravation as I said. Less risk = less reward. but also = sound sleep at night.
----------------------

So I checked the Index fund list per link below.
Looks like index fund return is 11% -12% over 5 years which is pretty good IMHO.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-fund ... index.html

The Indian scenario is different from the US one. All major funds (with large assets) have consistently outperformed the index in both short and long terms.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 02 Feb 2015 23:29

Is it a good idea to put money in Coal India stock especially with upcoming e-Auction and grandiose plans of Namo Sarkaar ? If mfg'ing and power generation picks up in India, Coal is one commodity which will be hugely in demand and with India being Saudi Arabia of coal reserves, TYhe stock can zoom.

I got about 200 shares of Coal India in IPO @ 245 and the price has since then hovered between 300-400 and gives me zero confidence in investing money in this stock.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 Feb 2015 00:38

Coal, like steel, is pretty cyclical, with an imbalance between demand and supply causing substantial price volatility and therefore changes in the equity value of producers. On the other hand, there's growing buildup in the core sector, which will drive coal and steel output in the next few years. CIL is a good company in itself to hold, but it's not to be viewed as a safe and stable performer like some boring insurance company.

kumarn · Post by **kumarn** » 03 Feb 2015 13:03

VikasRaina sir, Have you bought HDFC Bank and Gruh Finance yet? check for the details posted by couple of posters in the earlier pages of this very thread. Boss, these two together will safely compound your money at 25% cagr for the next decade. First have these two in your portfolio. Then add others slowly as your understanding increases.

In india, where GDP itself is growing at 15% plus and expected to grow thus for extended period of time why look for unsafe bets? There are many steady compounders like HDFC bank which will continue growing steadily at 20-25 percent with the economy without any risk.

I came across this blog yesterday: https://investmentinsightindia.wordpress.com/page/2/

He gives an excellent list of companies, which held together can safely compound at 20%-25% for the next decade at least. Invest in this list, sleep easy and let time do the trick for you!

Stock Name
Hawkins Cooker
VST Tillers
VST Industries
GSK Consumer
HDFC Bank
Asian Paints
Titan
Pidilite
Jubilant Foodworks
Page Industries
Gruh Finance

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Feb 2015 13:08

GRUH is down about 10% from its recent top while the results still look good. I just read the headline numbers and did not go into details so I might be wrong.

Good quality stocks, especially on the back of good numbers, do not retreat more than 10% in normal markets. So might be a good time to add some to your portfolio.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Feb 2015 13:10

LUPIN too had a good quarter and could be added. These are all high quality stocks.

manish singh · Post by **manish singh** » 03 Feb 2015 13:42

Indosolar has gone up by 37% since I bought it on George's recommendation 2 weeks back. I am trying to buy more Indosolar, but the order is not getting executed even though I am placing a market order. Does that mean no one is selling? But when I check the stock details it mentions that the last traded time is just one minute back. What is happening?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Feb 2015 13:45

It guess it is locked at the circuit at the start of trade. Next time try entering a limit order before the beginning of trade that is a tad bit over the next circuit price.

manish singh · Post by **manish singh** » 03 Feb 2015 14:03

The market price currently is 17.4. I tried placing limit order at 17.41 upon which I am getting an error "Price entered by you is beyond the price range permitted by exchange."

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Feb 2015 14:07

So it IS locked at the circuit. Try tomorrow with a LIMIT order at the NEXT circuit price.