Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 16 Jan 2015 16:42

Quite possible that badmash has gone to Barbaria to beg for money/petrol. Perennial beggars that the pakis are.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 16 Jan 2015 16:52

K Mehta wrote:
It also highlighted that lack of financing due to the power sector would also affect white oil supplies and its imports because of the blocking of LCs. The entity added that it was unable to continue supplies to the power sector and will stop further supplies of furnace oil unless its liabilities are discharged.
PSO had sought permission from the petroleum ministry to deal with the power sector as per contracts.

What is 'white oil'?

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 16 Jan 2015 17:00

Maybe this : http://www.exxonmobil.com/Lubes/product ... e-oil.aspx ?

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 16 Jan 2015 17:02

Only real deal they can do is nukes for oil, rest they have nothing valuable to give to Saudi.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 Jan 2015 18:46

^^^To highlight a point

However, the official data about the circular debt and receivables of the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) tells an entirely different story and negates the claim of the government that recovery of electricity bills has improved. The data shows that the circular debt has again swelled to Rs280 billion whereas the receivables have risen to Rs576 billion.

The data says that Sindh has to pay Rs63 billion to Pepco, Punjab Rs4 billion, Balochistan Rs7 billion, KP Rs1.6 billion, AJK Rs43 billion, and K Electric Rs32 billion.

According to the data, private sector has surprisingly emerged as the biggest defaulter as it owes to pay Rs388 billion. Out of Rs388 billion, the running defaulters which are mainly influential business tycoons running their factories are required to pay about Rs100 billion, but the government has not only failed to recover the said amount from them, but criminally continues to provide them electricity. In the list of running defaulters, the top mandarins without sharing the list told ‘The News’ that many business establishments of some towering political figures are also included.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1 ... -dries-out

PS: notice that "AJK Rs43 billion" in electricity dues? The AJK annual budget is Rs62 billion (e.g., http://www.dawn.com/news/1116234).

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 16 Jan 2015 19:57

That is exploitation as most of the hydroelectric power to Pakistan comes from pok.

From article posted by A Gupta

The ship with petrol holds 50k tonnes of petrol.

He said a vessel carrying 50,000 tons of petrol has arrived in Karachi that will be unloaded by today (Friday). This will also help provide solace in restoring the supply of petrol to Punjab.

Daily consumption of petrol in Pakistan is 10k tonnes
Source:
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/12 ... n-2013-14/
So in ideal conditions 5 days of supply. But no CNG and other fuels mean there will be more use of petrol. -1day of panic buying and black market stocking, maybe -1day each. This supply will not last more than 3days.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 16 Jan 2015 21:27

^^ provided there is a tanker with 50000 tonnes of petrol in the first place. Could be a figment of imagination.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 17 Jan 2015 20:43

:OT:
Gurulog, How about renaming this thread - Pakistan Economic Stress Thread?

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 18 Jan 2015 09:42

Crisis brings down power generation by 2,000MW

The current oil crisis has already brought down electricity generation by over 2,000MW, raising the deficit to 7,000MW and cutting supplies to half of the total demand of over 14,000MW. More power plants are likely to suspend working in a few days because they are running out of furnace oil, the power sector’s managers warned on Saturday.

To save domestic consumers, who are already facing around 12- hour outages, from further suffering, the managers have increased loadshedding for the industry from four to 10 hours.
The company is struggling to keep bigger plants like Hubco, Muzaffargarh and Jamshoro alive because, if they go down, the entire system would collapse.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 18 Jan 2015 13:02

http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/pakis ... -escalates

Badmash suspends officials who drank all petrol.

The country is left with oil stock of less than three days and its import has totally dried up as the Pakistan State Oil defaults on its payments and says it will need at least Rs100 billion and eight weeks' time to retrieve the situation.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 18 Jan 2015 13:05

Soon we will have Bakis living in tents with a wick lamp and onlee camels on isloo peshawar freeeway doing 10kmph. Allah Kareem

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 18 Jan 2015 14:28

Any thoughts on how this might affect their military preparations/ongoing ops?
Does the military maintain its own, separate reserves?

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 18 Jan 2015 14:52

Bakistan entering Islamic age. AoA is kind indeed on bakis .

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 18 Jan 2015 14:58

PIA New Delhi office receives closure notice from Indian authorities

NEW DELHI: India's Directorate of Enforcement has issued a notice to Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) asking it to “dispose of” its properties in New Delhi calling their purchase as “unauthorised”, according to a report on The Hindu.

The notice sent to PIA said the properties in New Delhi were acquired in contravention of the Foreign Exchange Management Act and without prior permission from the Reserve Bank of India.

“We are at a loss to understand why they are acting now, and how we will operate without a marketing and sales offices,” PIA Manager in North India, Saeed Ahmad Khan, was quoted in the report.

He added that the airline had been operating at the New Delhi premises since the past nine years and the Reserve Bank of India had been duly informed at the time of purchase in 2005.

PIA spokesman Rana Hanif told Dawn that its staff in New Delhi would appear before Indian authorities on January 29 and present the record and documents pertaining to the purchase, which had been carried out in accordance with the law.

Commenting on the denial of visa extension to PIA staff, Hanif said that, "Given the relations between India and Pakistan, denial of visa extension is a routine issue faced by the airline's staff; the visas are normally extended via diplomatic means."

He added that the staff had been instructed to maintain contact with the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi in this regard.

Nine years since RBI first wrote to the Finance Ministry, notifying it about the PIA acquisition, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) had informed RBI in June 2014 that “the proposal has been examined and rejection of the Government of India is hereby conveyed to the proposal of M/s Pakistan International Airlines for acquisition of immovable property at New Delhi, India”.

PIA had bought four flats in Kailash Building in Kasturba Gandhi Marg totaling 2,576 square feet in 2005 from the “surplus funds of Pakistan International Airlines, New Delhi”, according to the declaration the PIA submitted with the RBI in 2005. In the declaration, PIA had stated that the property was bought for its offices.

Directorate of Enforcement is a specialised financial investigation agency under the Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance, Government of India, which enforces the following laws: -

Foreign Exchange Management Act,1999 (FEMA) - A Civil Law, with officers empowered to conduct investigations into suspected contraventions of the Foreign Exchange Laws and Regulations, adjudicate, contraventions, and impose penalties on those adjudged to have contravened the law.

Officials said FEMA laws stipulate that "no person being a citizen of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Nepal or Bhutan without prior permission of the RBI shall acquire or transfer immovable property in India other than lease, not exceeding five years."

PIA, they said, was allegedly found contravening the above mentioned clause and hence ED has issued summons to it for scrutiny of official documents and records after which the agency will decide the further course of action to be taken.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Jan 2015 20:00

Chinmayanand wrote:Bakistan entering Islamic age. AoA is kind indeed on bakis .

In time of Prophet (PBUH) there was no petroleum, electricity and all such haraam stuff.
Every fridin, there was decision on who was more bious and Islamic.
All apostate western inventions must be removed from holy land of Al Bakistan. First country created in name of Islam.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 18 Jan 2015 21:04

Problem is solved because -
Pakistan PM orders increase in petrol supplies amid fuel crisis .
Badmash has ordered Petrol. As simple as that. Take that joo kufr.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ff90ab2e ... ab7de.html

However, a senior finance ministry official said the failure to build up fuel stocks was due to the ministry seeking to maintain tight control of expenditure on oil imports to keep within spending limits agreed with the International Monetary Fund under a loan programme.

IMF, Kaafir organisation, to blame.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 18 Jan 2015 21:18

Cross Post

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/ ... ing-crisis

There is no electricity for most of the day, no gas and now no petrol. We are now being told that because of the oil shortage, the power crisis will worsen. How long does the government think it has before the masses, deprived of every amenity imaginable, turn violent on the streets?

Inshaallah, H&D is intact.

Pakistan State Oil becomes Forbes 2000 Company

http://www.pakistanherald.com/news/3738 ... 00-company

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 18 Jan 2015 22:02

I had a colleague in massa tell me that SA got all its oil as a gift from Allah for Mo having been born there. As citadel of Islam they must come help Al Bakistan.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 18 Jan 2015 22:11

kancha wrote:Any thoughts on how this might affect their military preparations/ongoing ops?
Does the military maintain its own, separate reserves?

They probably have their own reserves, but you can safely bet that the officers are dipping into it for "personal use".

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Jan 2015 22:11

From the above, points to emphasize:
(via http://www.dawn.com/news/1157555 )

According to PSO officials, no oil consignment has arrived at any port in the country for the past two weeks, whereas usually six to eight ships, each carrying 65,000 tons of oil, come to the country in a fortnight.

“The company has exhausted all its overdraft (OD) facilities over the past few weeks. All its LCs (letters of credit) lines have been choked as its total receivables now run over Rs215bn,” a PSO official said, adding that the power sector owed Rs190bn and PIA Rs12.5bn.

“The company needs at least Rs100bn immediately to set things right. Even if it gets the required money, it will need another two months to line up imports and restore the supply line,” the official said.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 18 Jan 2015 22:13

RSoami wrote:Cross Post

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/ ... ing-crisis
There is no electricity for most of the day, no gas and now no petrol. We are now being told that because of the oil shortage, the power crisis will worsen. How long does the government think it has before the masses, deprived of every amenity imaginable, turn violent on the streets?

On the bright side, with the oil shortage, the masses will not have the means to burn down the high court (or the local KFC) this time around

. Win-win onlee!

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 18 Jan 2015 22:29

Baki petrol queue

Donkey powered bike

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 18 Jan 2015 23:17

deejay wrote:
K Mehta wrote:
It also highlighted that lack of financing due to the power sector would also affect white oil supplies and its imports because of the blocking of LCs. The entity added that it was unable to continue supplies to the power sector and will stop further supplies of furnace oil unless its liabilities are discharged.
PSO had sought permission from the petroleum ministry to deal with the power sector as per contracts.
What is 'white oil'?

'White' oil is gasoline / petrol and diesel, refers to their clearer hue, and is typically more expensive than fuel oil / heavy fuel oil, which are used for power generation and shipping. Given that oil prices are down ca 50%+ over the last 6-8 months, it's even more surprising that they can't afford it. Going to hell ....

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 18 Jan 2015 23:31

Yogi_G wrote:I had a colleague in massa tell me that SA got all its oil as a gift from Allah for Mo having been born there. As citadel of Islam they must come help Al Bakistan.

Seriously? He could have blessed them with some common sense, decency and humanity. It's s total hell hole.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 18 Jan 2015 23:50

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/det ... /463035101
Sites like this show ships at sea (but only last 3 days for free). Right now I find only one 50K ton tanker sitting at Karachi for the last 3 days.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Jan 2015 00:01

11 tanker-type ships headed towards Karachi:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/ind ... on:Karachi

PS: question for those who know - what is the economics of being ready to give Pakistan expedited delivery of oil, at of course, additional charge and immediate payment? I wonder if various entrepreneurs are positioning vessels to be able to do that.

PPS: if a ship's draught is 12.02meter and its current draught is 10.8 meters, does that mean the ship is running far from maximum load?
E.g., the gross tonnage 29506 tons Togolese Republic tanker Pagas is headed towards Karachi from the Gulf area, with the above statistics. So is it pretty much empty?
http://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/PAG ... -671475000

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Jan 2015 00:05

Actually I made a wrong assumption in assuming lower oil prices make it more affordable for the Pakis. They probably never pay for it anyway. And given that the price has halved, the Saudis can't afford to give it away for free!

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Jan 2015 08:47

Pakistan lifeline ie worker forex remittance from Arab nations is going to fall drastically

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 19 Jan 2015 09:23

Gyan wrote:Pakistan lifeline ie worker forex remittance from Arab nations is going to fall drastically

eklavya wrote:Actually I made a wrong assumption in assuming lower oil prices make it more affordable for the Pakis. They probably never pay for it anyway. And given that the price has halved, the Saudis can't afford to give it away for free!

I think these two are probably happening and hitting Pakistan hard. Another pressure point would be drop in export of Textiles to Europe reported earlier. This is going to suffer further with drop in production with this problem in Oil supply.

Now, I am pretty sure they are facing major crisis with the FICN business and in promoting the Narco industry. Add to this post Peshawar, I see a fund cut off from UAE, Kuwait and Saud lands for promotion of peaceful activities. Additionally, there have been some failures in such activities across the Eastern borders of TSP. Major liquidity crunch. That boat off Keti Bundar could have released some funds from the Arabian fathers, but the ICG came in the way.

How much did they pay to the Jordanians for those 'pre owned' F 16s.?

This is like Circular Debt in concentric circles going on to infinity.

Added Later: All this Oil Prices going down is helping the SDREs while the TFTA's are

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 19 Jan 2015 13:30

1. SBP FE reserve on 9 January 2015 = $ 10.4 billion
http://tribune.com.pk/story/822425/fore ... in-a-week/
2. Of this $ 1.5 billion is "anonymous donation" to Pakistan development fund. $ 1 billion is suck cook funds. $ 2.5 billion is euro bonds. $ 2 billion is IMF loans.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1153960
3. Last year debt servicing was $ 7 billion.
4. Circular debt is more than $ 5 billion, repeat more than.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/1 ... -officials

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 19 Jan 2015 14:04

Look, if crying like this gets you $20B over 10 years, we should be doing it too. Why is west bengal not ckaiming total ruin and asking for $2B a year from the international community to prevent a fall to the communists, or kerala for protection of bangalore, kerala from jihadis. We are front line al-lie too, and if there is a pot of $$B there is no shame in getting a cut at the same level as egypt, israel, etc.

Every $$ taken is one less to be given away, and as long as central govt isnt getting them (just routed through delhi for technical reasons) there is no downside.

Re. bakistan, sinking enough boats via CG will have a greater impact, turning off fake currency (rebase the rupee, Rs100=Rs1, larget note again only Rs20, phase out all old currency, stick encrypted RFID identification in new notes) will kill the bakis. If you cant do currency mgmt, then turn off all samjhota. same difference.

Otherwise these numbers are meaningless. Nothing happened when they were under $3B and nothing will happen if they are $0B.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 19 Jan 2015 22:31

Shreeman wrote:

Otherwise these numbers are meaningless. Nothing happened when they were under $3B and nothing will happen if they are $0B.

By all appearances, they went below $0B a long time back, and are still alive and kicking. Quaid-E-Duh, as a certain someone used to say.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 20 Jan 2015 14:59

Shreeman wrote:Every $$ taken is one less to be given away, and as long as central govt isnt getting them (just routed through delhi for technical reasons) there is no downside.
Otherwise these numbers are meaningless. Nothing happened when they were under $3B and nothing will happen if they are $0B.

Regarding first part
Shades of tactical brilliance here. But as long as rule #1( fourfathers will always bail its munna) holds this is useless. Any lack of FE will be promptly addressed by anonymous donations in bakistan development fund (see earlier post.)

Regarding the second part, absolutely agree. rule#1 again.

All this is petrol crisis is happening because of this. The government does not want to reduce the FE reserves before getting the next bakshish. Also note how rules are being bent wide for the munna, by including the private banks reserve.

Pakistan likely to get $500m loan from IBRD
"Pakistan is expecting to receive $500 million from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)", said a senior official of the Finance Ministry while talking to The Nation on Monday. However, he added that disbursement of aforesaid amount might take some time.
Pakistan had qualified for IBRD after enhancing its reserves to $15 billion last month (December). The country is now eligible for loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) that would enable it to undertake major projects. The country was required to increase its foreign exchange reserves to three-month import bill (foreign exchange reserves around $15 billion level) for qualifying for IBRD (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) funding of the World Bank.

It is worth mentioning here that country's foreign exchange reserves fell down below the level of $8 billion in December last year wherein State Bank of Pakistan's reserves were only $2.96 billion. However, the reserves enhanced by almost $7 billion in one year due to rapid foreign inflows in the form of Eurobond, tranches of IMF, loans of World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and auction of Sukuk bond.

According to the latest figures of the State Bank of Pakistan, the country's reserves are $14.94 billion where SBP's reserves are $10.30 billion and Commercial Banks $4.64 billion.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 20 Jan 2015 15:05

x-posting from stfup thread, original post by peregrine
This shortage of liquidity should be analysed a bit more. more than 1.7 trillion rupees injected in 20 days time.

Liquidity shortage: SBP injects another Rs526.6b in third OMO of 2015

KARACHI: In the third open market operation (OMO) of 2015, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) injected liquidity of Rs526.6 billion into the banking system on Monday.
The cash injection was aimed at addressing the shortage of liquidity that has affected the banking system for the last three months.
According to data released by the SBP’s Domestic Markets and Monetary Management Department, the liquidity-injecting OMO had a tenor of four days with the accepted rate of return clocking up at 9.3% per annum.
The latest injection follows OMOs on January 2 and January 9 that injected Rs513.1 billion and Rs694.1 billion, respectively, into the banking system.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 20 Jan 2015 16:01

Old article, shows how gora lender going wah wah is all for show just to release more money for munna
http://tribune.com.pk/story/780069/the- ... -pakistan/
The writer is the Managing Director of the Institute for Policy Reforms and a former federal minister

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 24 Jan 2015 18:05

Economic towel
To meet the end-December target of the IMF for the sixth review as well as to achieve $15 billion target for foreign exchange reserves, the government and its finance team have closed down the country and inflicted severe pain and difficulties to 190 million people of this country.

Petrol crisis was written on the wall. The Ministry of Finance did not release adequate amount of money to Pakistan State Oil (PSO) to import oil. The PSO was writing repeatedly to various ministries since October 2014, warning the government of fuel crisis of serious nature in the making. Between November 28 and December 24, 16 LCs were defaulted on account of not releasing money to the PSO. No one paid any attention, particularly the minister of finance, because he wanted to achieve end-December budget deficit target on the one hand and $15 billion foreign exchange reserve target on the other.

What a great achievement? The country is closed, little traffic on the roads, commercial and trading activities are severely hit, people are running from one petrol station to another to find few liters of petrol and the monster of loadshedding is likely to roar again with full force.

While Ministers of Petroleum and Natural Resources and Water and Power be held responsible for the current oil fiasco, the minister of finance cannot be absolved of his responsibility as he holds the purse of the nation. Not releasing money in time to PSO to import sufficient quantity of oil has created current crisis, which will last for at least two more weeks.

Such bad governance has never been witnessed in the country's history. Weak and frivolous team placed in key ministries and in key institutions, has damaged the economy and the institutions. How long can we go like this? How long cheating with nation will go on?

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 24 Jan 2015 18:16

Round 2 begins

Power crisis worsens across Punjab, Balochistan
LAHORE/QUETTA: If the petrol shortage wasn’t enough for consumers in Punjab, citizens across the province as well as in Balochistan now face electricity crisis as well.

According to reports, unannounced load-shedding has increased up to 18 hours a day across Punjab.

Reports from Quetta said that the shortfall across Balochistan has reached 1350 MW. The load-shedding in Quetta has increased up to 8 hours a day, and up to 16 hours in the rest of the cities across the province.

Sources said that furnace oil supply to Guddu, Hubco and several other power plants has come to a halt resulting in suspension of electricity production. Power generation in the country has fallen by 50 percent.

According to Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) officials, the shortfall in electricity production is due to the reduction in supply of gas, furnace oil, and funds.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 24 Jan 2015 19:43

great work there K Mehta, something is surely brewing there...

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 24 Jan 2015 20:47

K Mehta wrote:Round 2 begins

Power crisis worsens across Punjab, Balochistan
LAHORE/QUETTA: If the petrol shortage wasn’t enough for consumers in Punjab, citizens across the province as well as in Balochistan now face electricity crisis as well.

According to reports, unannounced load-shedding has increased up to 18 hours a day across Punjab.

Reports from Quetta said that the shortfall across Balochistan has reached 1350 MW. The load-shedding in Quetta has increased up to 8 hours a day, and up to 16 hours in the rest of the cities across the province.

Sources said that furnace oil supply to Guddu, Hubco and several other power plants has come to a halt resulting in suspension of electricity production. Power generation in the country has fallen by 50 percent.

According to Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) officials, the shortfall in electricity production is due to the reduction in supply of gas, furnace oil, and funds.

I believe they had a couple of explosions on a gas pipeline (originating somewhere in Balochistan) feeding a couple of power plants that produce power for the pakjab region. Plants rendered idle till gas supply resumes. No furnace oil for some power plants and then some brain had a light flicker ... so now no gas supply for a few more power plants. Bad times. Wulllllnnnnneraaaaaaaaaaabeeeeleeeeteeeees onleeee !.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 24 Jan 2015 21:04

The fuel story

The character deleted from this story was the power sector. Furnace oil is what straddles the power and petroleum sectors. And this is really a furnace oil payment cycle crisis.

Furnace oil accounts for almost half of our fuel import bill. A third of all our electricity is generated by burning furnace oil. And while there is no crisis in other products which are sold on cash and on which PSO and other oil marketing companies make a neat profit margin, furnace oil is what causes them cash flow difficulties.

The previous PPP-led ruling coalition had pumped Rs1.5 trillion into the power sector to cover for losses caused by inefficiencies and theft.

But it could not muster the political capital necessary to undertake the painful power sector reform during its tenure, especially as oil prices were going through the roof. The present government injected another Rs500 billion at the start of its term into a sector that was hemorrhaging nearly Rs1bn a day. But because the root causes were not addressed, the hemorrhaging continued and it’s piled up again.

Lack of power will have a strong knock-on effect on the rest of the economy.