Eastern Europe/Ukraine

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Feb 2015 07:07

shyams · Post by **shyams** » 01 Feb 2015 08:45

Y. Kanan wrote: I think the Ukraine rebels and the Russian troops fighting alongside them have suffered far more than most of us realize. And most of this is Putin's fault.

Any reliable source for this?

Y. Kanan wrote: If Putin was a real leader he'd have either stopped at Crimea and made peace, or invaded and taken all of Donbass back in March when the Ukrainian army was in dissaray. It could have been done almost bloodlessly at that time; Russia would have suffered the sanctions but little else. [

By taking over Crimea and not invading Donbass, didn't he already try to make peace by having a ceasefire? With the amount of US weapons flowing to Ukraine - including top US military commanders - I don't think you can assume that peace has a chance here at all.

shyams · Post by **shyams** » 01 Feb 2015 08:49

Y. Kanan wrote: All true; the Russians had to respond to this encroachment and a new Cold War (sanctions and all) was already inevitable because the US was hell bent on it. I don't dispute anything you said. But I'm glad we don't have a government that tells grieving mothers to shut up and denies them death benefits because its politically inconvenient to admit their sons died fighting for a country that doesn't even appreciate them. As a country, we may sh*t on our vets sometimes, too, but in the end most Indians are better than that. The Russians are (sometimes) a good ally and they have their uses, but I for one am glad we're not like them.

Your argument pretty much sums upto this: If it boils down to national interests and a few grieving mothers, forget national interest.

Y. Kanan wrote: I'll take our weak, ineffective governance over that kind of oppression any day.

The same weak ineffective govt. you crave so much has caused many mothers to grieve in our Mother India, by allowing terrorist strikes on both civilian and military members go unchecked and unanswered.

shyams · Post by **shyams** » 01 Feb 2015 08:51

UlanBatori wrote:Kanan gets reinforcements from NBC

Indeed.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 01 Feb 2015 08:57

Kananji, you make some interesting points but very poor conclusion in my opinion. Poor, weak, and ineffective gouvrmands are equally bad if not worse than gouvrmands not giving benefits to grieving mothers, while protecting the country. Of course, it is easier said than experiencing as a grieving mother. Weak and ineffective gouvrmands end up screwing the country with the same side effects, just that no one wants to admit it.

You do have a point that, freeing the eastern regions and allowing them a separate country, by outright force would not have had made things any more difficult than covert support. Separately, the hanumanitorian convoy bizzness, 12th one, I don't get it.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 01 Feb 2015 09:26

Just my humble view:
Putin's strategy:
Cold war is better than hot war(which can quickly turn into a world war).

Amirkhan strategy:
Proxy war is profitable. World war is more profitable especially if there are people willing to die.

I believe the victor will be decided by battle of economies. In the economic warfare, cheenis are the bestest friends of Roos. Roos seems to be already re-orienting its exports and imports to non-Oiropean countries.

Amirkhan is trying to plummet Roos using economic warfare. The ukraine thing is to make Roos expend its money and men. Of course, wars are profitable and plummeting economies need wars. Roos does not need war. Amirkhan needs a war. Roos is trying to avoid a war. Amirkhan is trying to impose a war.

What's Dhesh's role?
Amirkhan is wooing Dhesh to be a counter-pole to Cheen, so that Cheen does not take away the top position of Amirkhan. Amirkhan's top position seems to be seriously threatened.

The choice is quite tricky for Dhesh.
-On one side, you have the Amirkhan who has been funding and arming the Bakis. The same Amirkhan funds NGOs, media and missionaries.
-On the other side, you have the Cheenis who have also been supporting Bakis. The Cheenis have also been supporting leftist media.

That seems to be the choice for the Dhesh. In short, both Amirkhan and Cheenis have a history of actively working against Dhesh. Now, Dhesh cannot afford to antagonize both of them. I think Dhesh would have to be extremely smart to maneuver in this situation. It needs to hunt with the hounds and run with the hare or something like that. It needs to work the old system yet it needs to not lose its place in any emerging new system.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Feb 2015 13:37

What is the basis of the claim of `thousands of Russian dead'? Even Western backed Human rights groups in Russia, estimate that the
number of possible Russian dead in Ukraine are 40. (these include all cases of deaths in the Military where the official reason for
death seemed suspect'. If there are `thousands of dead' there should typically be a similar number of POW's and it would be easy (with
Western inducements) to get at least 1 to `confess'. The reality is that not a single Russian army POW - has been captured, nor is there
a single Russian tank or major piece of equipment that the Ukrainians have recovered. (The Russians and Ukrainians use different models
of Tanks for e.g). This is what led the Ukrainian media to finally start asking questions and led to their army chief admitting there was no direct Russian involvement.

Chocolate would in fact like Russia to intervene openly, so that NATO can do likewise and so that Ukrainians can show more unity.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 01 Feb 2015 14:05

Deans,

A total lack of involvement does not pass muster. Even if for intelligence or security of humanitarian convoys. Now as to capture/confession, the ukrainians have made those noises. Sky TV international carried it regularly even at the start of the war.

Fact remains that volunteers are dying, and are being repatriated in some form -- after crematorial funeral or for funeral. The total numbers for both warring parties are in thousands. You can classify them as you wish. Still a gross waste of human lives.

The crimean green men carried no insignia either. This is not a regular war. Not sure why the russian military would not want to keep an ear on the events, and people at the ready in case of a broader attack. There isnt enough hardware in eastern ukraine to keep this going without russia either. Heck LNR/DNR would likely run out of food/fuel quickly if russia turned its back on them.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 01 Feb 2015 17:39

Deans wrote: Chocolate would in fact like Russia to intervene openly, so that NATO can do likewise and so that Ukrainians can show more unity.

Any idea what the local opinion is about the attempt at draft? Is it unpopular to the extent that it would cause political problems to M. Chocolate? I seem to be seeing quite a few Ukrainean draft dodgers in my university (My students' siblings, who would otherwise have to serve in the army, are hiding out here. They still love to shout `Death to Russia' but from a safe distance it seems & prefer to reply to fluent Russian in atrocious English

). Also, why are Kharkov, Zaporozhie & Odessa quiet? Russians are ~50% in all the three oblasts, no? Also, what about the far west of Ukraine - Uzhgorod, in particular? Are the Hungarians & Rusyns going to revolt against M. Chocolate?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 Feb 2015 17:50

The blogpost linked below does indicate forced conscription.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... esses.html

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Feb 2015 18:09

"Situation is Totally Under Control" in Debaltseve - if u believe the Ukraine junta

But it looks like the UkBapZi soldiers there are not yet allowed to surrender and end the carnage. Sounds more and more like Adolf re: Stalingrad. Sad.
When those 4 buses cross the Dnieper, it may be like "Last Train Over Rostov Bridge" for the UkBapZis.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 01 Feb 2015 20:58

As far as Russian participation is concerned, it is more likely that Putin is speaking the truth. Its volunteers from the Russian army. But trained people for sure. They have helped convert a rag tag militia into an army for the pro-Russian republics.
If Russian army was directly involved, there would have been more noises from the west and more losses for the Ukrainian army.

Odessa and Kharkiv and other russian cities arent quiet. There are often bombings in these places by the more enthusiastic mong the anti Kieve Russian population. Its mostly the inertia of the people and the fear of reprisals by government institutions that is keeping them quiet.

Noone wants to simply jump into a war without calculating the consequences.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Feb 2015 23:43

RSoami wrote:As far as Russian participation is concerned, it is more likely that Putin is speaking the truth. Its volunteers from the Russian army. But trained people for sure. They have helped convert a rag tag militia into an army for the pro-Russian republics.

The Russian have a system of conscription in the armed forces so practically 80-90 % of the population are trained to fire a Kalashnikov at some stage in their life.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Feb 2015 23:44

Obama Admits US Role in 2014 Ukraine Coup

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Feb 2015 23:48

Austin wrote:Obama Admits US Role in 2014 Ukraine Coup

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2015 01:09

The HUGE risk in the Russian approach is that the longer this carnage drags on, like the Yugoslav 'civil' war, the higher the likelihood of 'NATO' expanding to 'UN". Of course UN cannot pass anything over a Russian veto, but the risk is getting higher, of the BapZis being able to draw in a lot of other poodle nations. Kosovo is an inspiring example to them that victory is possible, even over the Russian-supporting interests.

OTOH, Putin may reason that a few hard-fought victories may send the UkBapZis into headlong retreat. A rout at Dobaltsave, resulting in the dissolution of a so-called "large Ukrainian force" would be a step towards that. Followed by an encirclement of Mariupol.

Remember that way back in March/April, when the UkBapZis first tried to send a mechanized force to the East, they were surrounded at a train station and basically persuaded to go back to Kiev by the residents, citing the danger of the whole region going up in the flames of war.

Now that has exactly come to pass. Tragic, but blame lies entirely on the Kiev regime and its puppet-masters.

The endgame, accordingly, has to be the hanging of the UkBapZi netas, w/ or w/o burning of Kiev. I think Putin is biding his time, and Dobaltsave is the equivalent of Stalingrad. Once defeated there, the UkBapZis may not have any way to stand their ground east of the river.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 Feb 2015 02:27

I know a Belarussian who laughs that Russia could not even beat Chechnya. Oh the might games big powers play.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 02 Feb 2015 02:59

It is easy to lose sight of the fact that the war is a tragic side show. The economic danger, combined with revolutionary pressures at the right time is the real event. There was no opportunity for this in kosovo or chechnya. Georgia jumped the gun without a "democratic" spearhead. Ukraine has been organized with all these issues sorted out.

So the war will drag on, for another year or so before serious fissues start emerging. There might be a syrian, turkish, georgian, armenian, azeri, kazakh "spring" at the right time. Who knows. The take away so far is there will be many hot wars away from west europe, north america. The whole foreign policy is about keeping a cauldron boiling.

So to look at it from a debaltesevo lens is myopic. All it can tell us, is if there is local resolve to keep official russian participation under wraps. I dont think this is a great idea (keeping russian involvement secret), but that seems to be set in stone now. Dozrns of identical furl trucks in a convoy -- not volunteers. Even if painted white/red. This needs to be out in the open.

The best russian thing would be to provide the usual but open "moral, diplomatic, and defensive" support. If the US can openly train "moderate" syrians, then there is no bar to this. Let this revolution spread west, as far as it wants to go.

The arabs are doing this, the chinese are doing this, europeans and americans are doing this. Russia needs to step up instead of continuing to do undercover small operations.

An year or two of carnage can totally wreck any place -- serbia, libya, syria, georgia, ukraine. And only large army campaign would restore order.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 02 Feb 2015 08:16

Austin wrote:
RSoami wrote:As far as Russian participation is concerned, it is more likely that Putin is speaking the truth. Its volunteers from the Russian army. But trained people for sure. They have helped convert a rag tag militia into an army for the pro-Russian republics.
The Russian have a system of conscription in the armed forces so practically 80-90 % of the population are trained to fire a Kalashnikov at some stage in their life.

So do the Ukrainians.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 02 Feb 2015 08:29

Shreeman wrote:Deans,

A total lack of involvement does not pass muster. Even if for intelligence or security of humanitarian convoys. Now as to capture/confession, the ukrainians have made those noises. Sky TV international carried it regularly even at the start of the war.

Fact remains that volunteers are dying, and are being repatriated in some form -- after crematorial funeral or for funeral. The total numbers for both warring parties are in thousands. You can classify them as you wish. Still a gross waste of human lives.

The crimean green men carried no insignia either. This is not a regular war. Not sure why the russian military would not want to keep an ear on the events, and people at the ready in case of a broader attack. There isnt enough hardware in eastern ukraine to keep this going without russia either. Heck LNR/DNR would likely run out of food/fuel quickly if russia turned its back on them.

Shreeman,
I'm not saying there is no Russian involvement. Just that the Russian casualties (by which I mean anyone who has recently
served, or is serving in the Russian army) are just a handful. Certainly not in the hundreds, let alone thousands.

Russian involvement (I have contacts in the Russian army) would most likely be intelligence, drone support, weapons experts
for SAM's /Anti tank missiles (and replenishing stocks) and experienced volunteers embedded in rebel groups.

The Russian /East Ukraine border is probably the most heavily observed border (By NATO) in Europe today. Both sides know that any movement of hardware from Russia will be picked up easily. This would limit Russian involvement to small groups of
men, who would either be weapons specialists, or experienced NCO's, platoon/ company commanders, who can provide
leadership to rebel groups. This borrows from US doctrine and indicates that the Russian military has evolved from its earlier methods of fighting.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 02 Feb 2015 08:49

nageshks wrote:
Deans wrote: Chocolate would in fact like Russia to intervene openly, so that NATO can do likewise and so that Ukrainians can show more unity.
Any idea what the local opinion is about the attempt at draft? Is it unpopular to the extent that it would cause political problems to M. Chocolate? I seem to be seeing quite a few Ukrainean draft dodgers in my university (My students' siblings, who would otherwise have to serve in the army, are hiding out here. They still love to shout `Death to Russia' but from a safe distance it seems & prefer to reply to fluent Russian in atrocious English ). Also, why are Kharkov, Zaporozhie & Odessa quiet? Russians are ~50% in all the three oblasts, no? Also, what about the far west of Ukraine - Uzhgorod, in particular? Are the Hungarians & Rusyns going to revolt against M. Chocolate?

The problem is not so much the draft, but attempts to make conscripts or national guard units (comprising part time volunteers) do heavy fighting. Most Ukie casualties have happened when these units were sent into frontal assaults with no support from artillery and tanks. The volunteers also increasingly reluctant to shell rebel cities, or fight their own people (they signed up because they thought they were protecting Ukraine against Russia). The rebels have been displaying Ukie POW's in their press briefings who have been saying this. Deserting conscripts are the biggest source of rebel weapons.
In response, Chocolate has signed the type of decrees Stalin announced in 1941/2. it gives Ukie officers the right to shoot
soldiers, on the spot, for desertion or cowardice.

Russians are actually in a minority (though a sizable one) in the districts you mention. They are in a majority in Kharkov city
but not in the district. My feeling however, is that Kharkov (or at least parts of it) may be next to breakaway, if the Russians
feel the time is right.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 02 Feb 2015 08:57

http://s020.radikal.ru/i705/1502/77/9590440c92d1.jpg

Latest situation in the Debaltsevo pocket. Ukies have decided to stay and fight and accounts from both sides are that the
fighting is bloody. Red are rebels, Blue the Ukies.

The map shows the high ground around Debaltsevo ( Дебальцевo). It shows that intial Ukie dispositions were well chosen
at Uglegorsk -Углегорск (now captured by rebels) and along the ridgelines running north to south from east of Debaltsevo
and west to east along the southern edge of the pocket. It can be seen why it has been difficult and slow to push ukies off these ridges, and the fight continues.
But now, with Uglegorsk under rebel control, or mostly, when the ridgelines, which I marked in white on the map,
are finally secured, then ukie positions south of Debaltsevo and centered around Olkhovatka (Ольховка) will be untenable.
The only road into the pocket is being heavily interdicted by the rebels. Until yesterday however, Ukies have been pushing
reinforcements in and wounded out, indicating that they are going to stay and fight.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 02 Feb 2015 09:09

Nagesh & Ulanbatori,
This is a Ukrainian article. From what I can read (its similar to Russian), it indicates that the Commander of the Ukrainian 25th
Territorial Army Battalion, inside the Debaltsevo pocket, has deserted. Its significant because the article is intended for a Ukrainian
audience and it uses the word `deserted' (a politically correct term might be POW).

http://tsn.ua/ato/u-25-mu-batalyoni-kiy ... 06447.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Feb 2015 09:47

The global chief warmonger the US appears to be want multiple wars all over the globe so that its arms industry can reap a bountiful harvest. Arch warmonger JoKerry is at it again in the UKR worried about the recent defeats of the KLiev junta's choco soldiers.
The "stop Putin at all costs" has elements of the US's Afghan policy when there Soviets were there.SAMs to shoot down Russian aircraft and turn the UKR into another "Afghanistan" in Eastern Europe for Russia.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... ays-report

US considers providing arms to Ukraine as rebels step up attacks, says report
John Kerry and military ‘open to arming Kiev forces’, says New York Times
Washington concerned by renewed fighting after breakdown of truce

At least two dozen dead in renewed fighting in Ukraine

President Barack Obama’s administration is considering providing Ukrainian forces with defensive weapons and equipment in the face of a rebel offensive that has shattered a five-month truce, according to the New York Times.

The newspaper quoted US officials as saying secretary of state John Kerry and US joint chiefs chairman Martin Dempsey were open to discussions of the idea and that Nato military commander General Philip Breedlove supported providing such lethal aid.

One official was quoted as saying that US national security adviser Susan Rice was also prepared to reconsider her previous resistance to providing such assistance.

Putin must be stopped. And sometimes only guns can stop guns

Kerry will visit Kiev on Thursday for talks with president Petro Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials. Obama voiced concern last week about renewed fighting between Russian-backed separatist and government forces in eastern Ukraine and said the United States was considering all options short of military action to isolate Russia.

The White House has stopped short of providing military aid to Ukraine in order to avoid provoking Russia. Months of sanctions against Russia have not so far convinced Russia to cease arming the rebels, convincing some in the Obama administration that military support for Ukraine is required.

The Times said eight former senior US officials would issue an independent report on Monday urging Washington to send $3bn in defensive arms and equipment to Ukraine, including anti-armour missiles and reconnaissance drones.

Fighting raged in eastern Ukraine on Sunday as pro-Russian separatists used artillery fire to try to dislodge government forces from a strategic rail hub after peace talks collapsed.

Nato and Kiev accuse Russia of sending thousands of troops to support the rebel advance with heavy weapons and tanks. Moscow denies it is directly involved in fighting over territory that the Kremlin refers to as “New Russia.“

European Union foreign ministers agreed on Thursday to extend for another six months economic sanctions against Russia that had been due to expire soon. Washington has promised to tighten its own sanctions, which have helped feed an economic crisis in Russia.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 02 Feb 2015 15:12

Phillip,

Let me naively note that "to consider" == "oh, my god; these things are going to be found in surrendered items any day now". The export has been ongoing for quite some time. Lets see when they become standard issue. This sort of reports only say the stock of plausibly deniable items is down to next to nothing.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Feb 2015 17:06

Ukies have been pushing reinforcements in and wounded out, indicating that they are going to stay and fight.

Stalingrad. Once they have pushed in the maximum that can come from the West, the vodka convoys may arrive and blow the bridges. ***FINIS ***

The commander's 'desertion' sounds very ominous.

Use of the word is very strange indeed, (instead of 'kidnapped' as would be proper given that it is only criminals that are supposed to be fighting the Lawfully Coup-de-etated Junta), indicates Hitler-like orders to "fight to the last man" - that Kiev has become totally unhinged. Stalingrad again.

If the Freedom Fighters are going to liberate the place, it would be best to get the maximum number to surrender with their NATO weapons, so that the sweep to Kiev will be swift and open. I wonder if the UkBapZis were stupid enough to put their foreign 'advisors' into the death-trap or did they 'evacuate' them in the buses wearing burkhas?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Feb 2015 18:19

Biden says US 'embarrassed' EU into sanctioning Russia over Ukraine
Published time: October 03, 2014
http://rt.com/usa/193044-us-embarrass-eu-sanctions/

The Greek FM has spoken out against the EU's retrograde policy towards Russia over the UKR.It is the US that wants to "punish" Putin and demonmise him .Every decade a new "demon" has to be created for the US to structure its next war.Saddam,Gadhaffi.Osama, The Kims of NoKo,etc. are demonised to fool the semi-literate US populace and armtwist its EU/NATO partners who are dependent upon US largesse whether it be arms or trade. To quote a famous line from a film,"its the control of debt that matters".Indebted Europe is in US thralldom and has to bow and scrape for survival.

Meanwhile a choice quote from the Turkish "Sultan: about Joe Biden.

He will be history’: Turkish president lashes out at Joe Biden over ISIS comments

http://rt.com/news/193172-turkey-apology-biden-isis/

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Feb 2015 18:49

UlanBatori wrote:
Ukies have been pushing reinforcements in and wounded out, indicating that they are going to stay and fight.
Stalingrad. Once they have pushed in the maximum that can come from the West, the vodka convoys may arrive and blow the bridges. ***FINIS ***

UB thalaivare,
It may not be enough to send a few vodka convoys. While Russians may be majority east of Dneiper (even this is not certain), they are not in an absolutely commanding position. There are parts of Novorossiya too that are purely UkBapzi (east Bank Dnepropetrovsk, parts of Zaporozhie and Poltava, etc) and the history of the Ukrainean Insurgent Army, even in the Stalinist times when everyone had abandoned them, shows that they are not an enemy to be trifled with. Apart from sending the vodka convoys, Comrade Vlad may need to reopen a few mines in Siberia if he wants to keep everything east of the Dnepr (this is what Comrade Stalin had to do in the 40s) ,,,,

More interesting is whether Hungary will try to get back its old territories. Uzhgorod is something they have their eyes on and the old Ungvar is truly a Hungarian region - it was annexed by Comrade Stalin after WW2. Hungarians have backed away currently under EU pressure, but they want their old territory back. If they join with the Rusyns in the aftermath of a UkBapZi defeat, things could get very interesting indeed.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 02 Feb 2015 23:00

nagesh,

The image of ukrainians (of any hue) being ready to drop everything at the tip of a hat and join in a militia is wrong. The civilians are not the left-right sector. They are suffering just as much as the rebels. And unless seperated and interred wont see themselves as extension of west ukraine. They will stick to their property and wait for the matter to resolve, in either partys favor, as civilians always have.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 Feb 2015 23:35

Shreeman wrote:nagesh,

The image of ukrainians (of any hue) being ready to drop everything at the tip of a hat and join in a militia is wrong. The civilians are not the left-right sector. They are suffering just as much as the rebels. And unless seperated and interred wont see themselves as extension of west ukraine. They will stick to their property and wait for the matter to resolve, in either partys favor, as civilians always have.

Shreeman-ji,
I was being facetious to a degree. I am fluent enough in Russian & have plenty of friends & students in Ukraine (on both sides, east & west). Of course, not everyone will fight - as the draft dodgers of Ukraine & the ones who have fled to Russia from Novorossiya proves. But there is a point. I am seeing members of the same family taking opposite sides passionately - to the point of excluding the `other', even from family occasions. Even east of the Dnepr, there is a significant bunch of motivated Ukraineans who will fight the Russians (or Novorossiyans) for the region. I just want to point out that outside the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, keeping the remainder of Novorossiya may not be easy for the Novorossiyans (or Russians, if they unite). it is not as simple as blowing up the Dnepr bridges & sending a few vodka containers.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Feb 2015 23:47

BTW what are the chances that in the guise of Ukraine War & Economic Sanctions the US and NATO is planning a bolt from blue nuclear first strike ?

Its possible that West must be using this to divert attention from such a plan.

the only way for Russia to avoid would be to First Strike US and NATO targets and population else it would be impossible later on after a decapitating first strike from them ?

I doubt any significant percent of ICBM/SLBM would leave the Russian Silo Subs if NATO Plans a bolt from blue strike.

Indications that the U.S. Is Planning a Nuclear Attack Against Russia

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/06/ ... ussia.html

President Obama is now trying to persuade EU leaders to join with him to complete this plan to replace MAD with a first-strike nuclear capability that will eliminate Russia altogether from the world stage.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 03 Feb 2015 01:04

Austin wrote:

I doubt any significant percent of ICBM/SLBM would leave the Russian Silo Subs if NATO Plans a bolt from blue strike.

Testing that theory out with a country that holds the second largest nuclear arsenal on the planet is..errrm...mildly risky. NATO cr@ps in its pants and runs away like its hair is on fire, when it tried to fight some regressive mofos in Afghansthan, and pretty recently too, do we really expect the turds to start a nukilar war?

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 01:12

nageshks wrote:
Shreeman wrote:nagesh,

The image of ukrainians (of any hue) being ready to drop everything at the tip of a hat and join in a militia is wrong. The civilians are not the left-right sector. They are suffering just as much as the rebels. And unless seperated and interred wont see themselves as extension of west ukraine. They will stick to their property and wait for the matter to resolve, in either partys favor, as civilians always have.
Shreeman-ji,
I was being facetious to a degree. I am fluent enough in Russian & have plenty of friends & students in Ukraine (on both sides, east & west). Of course, not everyone will fight - as the draft dodgers of Ukraine & the ones who have fled to Russia from Novorossiya proves. But there is a point. I am seeing members of the same family taking opposite sides passionately - to the point of excluding the `other', even from family occasions. Even east of the Dnepr, there is a significant bunch of motivated Ukraineans who will fight the Russians (or Novorossiyans) for the region. I just want to point out that outside the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, keeping the remainder of Novorossiya may not be easy for the Novorossiyans (or Russians, if they unite). it is not as simple as blowing up the Dnepr bridges & sending a few vodka containers.

Nagesh,

Individuals are afforded tools of significant distruction courtesy of non-state actorhood and jeehardism. You dont need any significant population support to keep the fire burning. On the other hand, even total population support may net you nothing -- scottland, the basque. The economics are better in Russia and going by the example of crimea (where any hope of misadventure rests on the tatars) there is no big restlessness after integration.

Ukraine isnt able to offer anything economically and has in fact cut off any and all assistance. Ideology doesnt carry any weight in these decadant times.

At the same time, a thrust to the east or west will need to be an ongoing effort. So the river is no end point. Like china, the east will have to oust this taiwan if it wants to overcome the resistance. Or vice versa the fight goes to rostov and beyond.

Austin -- there is zero likelihood of nuclear war over ukraine. we havent even started seeing western small weapons yet. Let it fester for a year or two and the india/pak style nuclear flashpoint will arise.

For that matter, a good aside here, the political leaders on both sides of the india/pak conflict saw a huge, and i mean *huge* benefit to keeping that conflict unresolved. along the same lines as the division of india into india/pak. Some dumb fools driving these matters may be seeing a similar scenario
develop to their benefit. they may be disappointed at the eventual outcome.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Feb 2015 02:38

Got stuck in Ulan Bator traffic long enough to listen to EnnPeeArr. So they had the usual 'experts' arguing for sending weapons to the UkBapZis. Then they brought in the British Ambassador to Somewhere, and he basically called them frauds (in so few words, yes). Said that the Russians had no interest in any part of any country except that they have a special relationship with Ukraine, and that the present mess was brought on NOT by "Russian-backed rebels" breaking the ceasefire, but "not sure who broke the ceasefire" which is British diplomatese for "our side did". The EnnPeeArr guy kept interrupting him and basically kicked him out. Hilarious! So much for NPR's 'objective analysis."

It is very clear that the British and the Germans are united on this: they DON'T want to be on the "escalation ladder". Frau Fuhress Merkel was also quoted as saying the same thing.Seem very sorry that they bought tickets on the Sanctions train.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 02:56

^^^ Too late. Cant walk off the pitch in the middle of the game. Chooo Chooo! All aboard the escalation train.

Seriously, 5-10 a day means 3,000+ dead, 10x usual injured for west ukraine. If the trainwreck moves west of debaltsevo? as it would, then what? At some point the 60+ flying machines (1 shot down this week) make some noise. The army tries to make a stand. The sektors make their own aidar style outcome. At what point do the europeans join in? Who quietens the poles?

All hand wringing apart, H&D will keep forcing matters bigger and wider.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 03 Feb 2015 04:31

Don't see how Germany and UK are against escalation when their govts. have been making speeches about punishing Putin etc. -- if this starts hurting the locals in EU economically, this will be an election issue surely, but that is still a few years away for EU states that matter.

disha · Post by **disha** » 03 Feb 2015 04:46

Must read (if not posted and dissected already earlier). I will add my dissections later:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3ace220-a252 ... z3Qd4Eyd9O

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 03 Feb 2015 05:08

Shreeman wrote: Nagesh,

Individuals are afforded tools of significant distruction courtesy of non-state actorhood and jeehardism. You dont need any significant population support to keep the fire burning. On the other hand, even total population support may net you nothing -- scottland, the basque. The economics are better in Russia and going by the example of crimea (where any hope of misadventure rests on the tatars) there is no big restlessness after integration.

Ukraine isnt able to offer anything economically and has in fact cut off any and all assistance. Ideology doesnt carry any weight in these decadant times.

With all due respect, I must disagree. The economy of Novorossiya is shot to hell now. They are probably worse off compared to the people from Kiev or Lviv. But they are still fighting because they see their identities & their futures under threat. Believe me, Ukrainean is not a language that the Russians cannot learn (even I, a foreigner who knows only Russian, can kinda sorta understand Ukrainean). But they don't want their Russianness destroyed by the forced Ukrainean imposition. Similarly, when the Novorossiyans cross over into Dnepropetrovsk or Poltava, you will find the civilians more sympathetic to the Ukrainean army and a small, but significant portion of the Ukraineans there will fight the Novorossiyans with everything they have got.

At the same time, a thrust to the east or west will need to be an ongoing effort. So the river is no end point. Like china, the east will have to oust this taiwan if it wants to overcome the resistance. Or vice versa the fight goes to rostov and beyond.
.

Again, IMHO, no. The Ukraineans cannot even control Donetsk & Luganshk where there is no open Russian involvement even now. Any attempt to move into the Don regions within Russia will be impossible. The Ukraineans will be slaughtered if they try. I don't think the China-Taiwan parallel is correct. I am unsure to what extent China & Taiwan have different cultures, but there is a clear east west divide in Ukraine with Novorossiya clearly in the Russian cultural sphere, while Volhynia-Galicia clearly in the Polish-Austrian sphere. Until Stalin annexed Volhynia & Galicia after WW2, these regions used to be part of Poland or Austrian empire. These regions are mostly Catholic and are oriented westwards. This is at the root of the problem - the eastern part pulling strongly east & the western part pulling strongly west. The middle regions (what is called Malorossiya, centred around Kiev) might well go with whoever offers better terms. But it is nearly impossible (without an ethnic cleansing) for Galicia-Volhynia to pull Novorossiya into an embrace with the EU or the Novorossiyans to pull Volhynia-Galicia into an embrace with Russia. The conflict is going to stop here. Only the exact line of split (actual or virtual) remains to be decided.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 03 Feb 2015 05:21

^^^ Well, lets put down some basics.

Russia is tankering food+fuel+medicines, in white and other convoys. What about the west. Who ispaying for the heat+fuel. What is the ground situation re. day to day necessities? The noise re. missing gas for west ukraine has died down, not sure why this is not a pressing issue now.

What exactly is ukraine producing or selling, and to whom?

The long term economic prospects for ukraine are dire as far as I see. What is the silver lining? IMF?

As far as the war is concerned, it take a little longer for the collective PTSD to set in. This year should do it. Aleppo was fine in year 1 of the syria event if you recall.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Feb 2015 05:49

Tuvaluan wrote:Don't see how Germany and UK are against escalation when their govts. have been making speeches about punishing Putin etc. -- if this starts hurting the locals in EU economically, this will be an election issue surely, but that is still a few years away for EU states that matter.

That was the point of my post - the tone of UberSturmFuhress Merkel and Ambassador Brish1t had to be heard to b believed. Anger. Words like "fraud" (there were a few more choice words but I was trying to get out of a stopped lane into the kamikaze lane). Sneering references to the advice doled out by the Yoo Ess 9 months ago.