West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2015 23:46

Vijay, I saw news report that last days of Abdullah were quite tumultuous as he was trying to exclude Salman. So most likely there could be hospital malfeasance.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 20 Feb 2015 04:27

ramana wrote:Vijay, I saw news report that last days of Abdullah were quite tumultuous as he was trying to exclude Salman. So most likely there could be hospital malfeasance.

Egyptian and Emirati/ Saudi Panga is now personal.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 20 Feb 2015 06:38

ramana wrote:Vijay, I saw news report that last days of Abdullah were quite tumultuous as he was trying to exclude Salman. So most likely there could be hospital malfeasance.

Ah! that's a very interesting theory. Never knew that or thought of that. So was Salman being excluded.

Pretty concerned though with the overall big picture. It doesnt look like KSA and Qatar ever made up earlier. I remember reading earlier that it was Abdullah's personal push to get into a rapprochement with Qatar and also bent UAE and Egypt to follow. With this new move of Qatar recalling ambassadors,

a. it either means they have decided to go more aggressively on the MB support [along with Turkey] now that Abdullah has died
b. it means Libya has gone from bad to worse and Qatar needs to support a bit more overtly now that Egypt is invoking UN resolutions on Libya.

And how all this will turn out if Salman discreetly supports MB himself too. Can Egypt get isolated now? Israel has an elections and Iran is still talking for a deal with the US. Pak is even more broke and IS not yet curtailed. A strategists nightmare. Don't think the US and KSA thought through all the possibilities when they stupidly funded more radicalization.

And have they stopped? I see more deals of US and Turkey for training a moderate rebel force in Syria. Doh. The current idiots have ended up joining the IS or Ansar al-Sharia or the other more virulent factions because of lack of support. And the mil dudes of US and Turkey want to train more. It looks more and more like the rebel training is the actual factory for the IS. With Gulf money being the funding channel. And when neither of them seem like stopping...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Feb 2015 09:07

NPR had interview with Turki about ISIS and all. He wanted US to depose Assad.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 20 Feb 2015 10:49

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-turke ... 50992.html

Turkey and US have signed deal to train and arm Syrian rebels.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2015 15:29

centcom official details force levels and time for planned corps sized attack to retake Mosul.
so the monkey trap is being laid as ISIS will be forced to defend it for prestige reasons.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/02 ... ity-mosul/

if I were a civilian I would get the hell out of Mosul before this starts, because in the end probably a fleet of B1's will level the whole city to 'help' the iraqi militia units.

under saddam, iraq had a proper army, the kind of militias we see on tv are far from being a well drilled army in totality.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Feb 2015 16:49

But to hold out and wage prolonged urban warfare all they need is this rag tag bunch of jihadis wielding AKs. Having said that ISIS has stretched the limit of this militia by attempting to hold territory. And they have to hold territory because of that caliphate bull$hit. Their ideological zeal will be their achilles heel. If there is a sustained campaign by disciplined military then they don't stand a chance but this 'let-us-fund-some rebels-and-others' tactics will not work against them as these rebels are also untrained bunch of gun wielding abduls much like ISIS but without the jihadi frothing and willingness to die for their cause. So nothing will happen until a proper military steps in and puts boots on the ground.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Feb 2015 17:18

The mainstream will constantly steer its captive audiences away from the obvious – that one of the reasons that ISIS is so formidable is that they are being steadily supplied with US military-grade war materials.

Air-dropping supplies to covert paramilitary rebel or fighting groups is nothing new for the US.

http://21stcenturywire.com/2015/02/18/i ... -in-syria/

A senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Israel’s spy agency, Mossad, of training ISIL terrorists operating in Iraq and Syria, Press TV reports.

Alexander Prokhanov told Press TV that Mossad is also likely to have transferred some of its spying experiences to the ISIL leadership, adding that Israel’s military advisors could be assisting the Takfiri terrorists.

Prokhanov said ISIL is a byproduct of US policies in the Middle East.

"ISIL is a tool at the hands of the United States. They tell the Europeans that if we (the Americans) do not intervene, ISIL will cause you harm," he said, adding that Iran and Russia are the prime targets of the ISIL.

"They launched their first terror attack against us just a few days back in Chechnya," he said, stressing that the ISIL ideology has got nothing to do with the Islam practiced in Iran and some other Muslim countries in the Middle East region.

Prokhanov said the United States and Israel are one and the same when it comes to supporting a terror organization like the ISIL.

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/12/0 ... ts-russia/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2015 18:18

While Iraq militias cannot take on isis they will be used to
Fix isis into areas which will be leveled by drones and b1.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 20 Feb 2015 20:55

Turkey and US have signed deal to train and arm Syrian rebels.

This reinforces the fact that for all of Obama's horsesh!t about "destroying ISIS", the US and turkey are in bed in keeping ISIS under control...this also explains why there is a lot of talking about destroying ISIS rather than any action. Action is only required to keep the ISIS from getting out of control, not if they target Central Asia/India/China/Russia and serve as a useful boogieman to keep the EU on the side of the US.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 20 Feb 2015 21:08

Wonder what UN would say! Indulging in such open hostile training of irregular militia must be a strict no-no in the 'international' community.

This is also a clear opportunity for Europe and Russia to block borders of north and north-eastern Turkey (i.e. blocked at EU border), and kick Turkey out of all EU like structures. Assad needs to be supported much more now that Turkey is openly into training irregulars, which was not in the open earlier.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 21 Feb 2015 02:13

UN is the new league of nations. Noone really cares about it.
The credit of course must go to George Bush.
And to think that India is wasting diplomatic capitaltrying to get a seat in the security council without veto power.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 21 Feb 2015 03:06

The terrorist creating scum in the US SD are at least coming out in the open and admitting that they have no intention of doing anything other than "containing" ISIS and using it as a tool of US foreign policy -- and these wannabe paki mofos in the US are preaching to the rest of the world about freedom and democracy. Would be hilarious if it weren't so effed up. No wonder the mofos in DC keep repeating the line that ISIS it not a threat but Russia is. All quite despicable and ugly.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ ... rist-group

After all the rhetoric cowdung, the article states the US's intent quite clearly.

United States must stay committed to fighting ISIS over the long term in a manner that matches ends with means, calibrating and improving U.S. efforts to contain the group by moving past outmoded forms of counterterrorism and counterinsurgency while also resisting pressure to cross the threshold into full-fledged war. Over time, the successful containment of ISIS might open up better policy options. But for the foreseeable future, containment is the best policy that the United States can pursue.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Feb 2015 03:31

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/20/ ... ddle-east/
ISIS Redraws the Map of the Middle East

The recent beheadings of 21 Coptic Christians by the Islamic State (IS) has drawn worldwide condemnation and led the Egyptian military to launch air strikes in Libya. The beheadings are part of a self-conscious form of political spectacle, one intended to garner worldwide media attention – which it did. The violent actions were also intended to rally support for the organization’s goal of establishing a caliphate, an orthodox Islamic state controlled by a single political and religious leader and governed under Sharia law.Equally critical to its campaign, and too-often unappreciated by media pundits, IS seeks to redraw the traditional borders of what was once known as the Levant. This is a geographic territory little mentioned today, but since Old Testament days has been a war zone of contesting armies and belief systems. Among these confrontations were the Christian Crusades, eight campaigns that dragged on from 1095 to 1272 AD; some say it lasted until 1798.National borders are not fixed, divinely established and eternal. Rather, they are political constructs, revealing more of the dynamics of political power then the identity of those so governed. No better example of this is the U.S., in which any number of tactics was used to both extend and preserve the nation’s borders. These efforts include outright theft (land of Native peoples), purchase (Louisiana territory), war (with Mexico), subversion (seizure of Hawaii) and civil war (to stop the South from succeeding).IS is aggressively pursuing a campaign to reverse traditional notions of territoriality, particularly that established by European colonialists following World War I and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Is the Islamic State’s violent challenge to existing boarders of Middle East countries a negative rebellion against globalization?
The word “Levant” derives from the French term, lever, “to rise,” and refers to the direction of the rising sun from the perspective of the eastern Mediterranean of ancient Greece and Rome. It is synonymous with “Mashriq,” referring to “the east” or “the sunrise.”The Levant roughly extends 400 miles north from the Taurus Mountains to the Arabian Desert at the south, and across some 70 to 100 miles east from the Mediterranean Sea into the Zagros Mountains of Upper Mesopotamia. Some insist that it includes Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus and part of southern Turkey, but not the Caucasus Mountains or the Arabian Peninsula. In Biblical times, the Levant’s southern part – what’s known as Syria today — was called Canaan.In June 2014, IS released a video, “Breaking of the Borders,” following its capture of the frontier crossing between northern Syria and Iraq. The victory was a stepping-stone to its capture of Mosul, Iraq’s largest northern city, and which it still controls. “This is not the first border we will break, we will break other borders,” proclaimed the video’s narrator.“I say to the Islamic Ummah [community],” the speaker adds: “Now we are in Iraq. Allah, glorified and exalted … smashed these borders, the borders of Sykes-Picot, and now the Muslim can enter Iraq without a passport.”The reference to “the borders of Sykes-Picot” recalls a secret deal concocted by Great Britain and France in May 1916 to carve up the Ottoman Empire in anticipation of victory in the Great War. During the war, the Ottomans allied with Germany and the Central Powers against Britain, France, Russia and the U.S. With war’s end, the victors took out their knives and carved up a territory dating from 1299.Six centuries of pre-modern rule came to an end and with it a new geopolitical order came to power. The deal, cut by Sir Mark Sykes (Britain) and Francois Georges Picot (France), established spheres of influence for the European great powers. The deal was rooted in the negotiators’ desire to secure control over the principle 20th century energy source, oil. France claimed Syria; Britain got the southern part of Syria covering parts of Mesopotamia (what would become Iraq, Lebanon and parts of Palestine); and an international zone included parts of Palestine. The boundaries established by the deal remain more-or-less in place today.The 2007 movie, Charlie Wilson’s War, starring Tom Hanks, makes merry the CIA’s adventures in Afghanistan in the early-‘80s. It wonderfully recalls the good-old days of the last great battle of the Cold War and how ever-clever U.S. politicians and undercover operatives fueled a local insurgency that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The movie makes insurgency great fun.As evident from the experience of Osama bin Laden, many Islamic warriors got their start collaborating with U.S. interests in Afghanistan. The U.S. invasion of Iraq planted the seed from which IS evolved as both a political and military entity. In 2002, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian and leader of Tawhid wa al-Jihad (Organization of Monotheism and Jihad), established al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Following Zarqawi’s death in 2006, AQI morphed into Islamic State in Iraq (ISI). In April 2013, ISI, with a military presence in Iraq and Syria, was rebranded the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). The Islamic State (IS) was decreed in June 2014.IS seeks to overturn the Great Powers’ division of the Levant, thus reshaping traditional national territories into a religious-political caliphate. It has a military and political presence in Syria and Iraq; it is creeping into Lebanon and now Libya (involving the murder of Christian Egyptians). IS even promises to “free Palestine.”
IS is but one of the insurgent movements challenging European colonists’ notions of the nation state set up by Sykes-Picot or other such schemes.The European Union (EU) suggests one failed approach. It was established in 1957 to facilitate the economic, social and cultural integration – symbolized by the euro and open boarders — of individual countries. It originally consisted of six countries and, today, involves 28 countries and over 500 million people. Since it’s founding, there’ve been calls for the EU to become a “United States of Europe,” with individual countries becoming analogous to U.S. states. However, with the rise of rightwing movements in the France, the UK and other countries as well as Greece’s possible exit, a further reconfiguration of Europe seems unlikely.the Kurds suggest an alternative transnational political identity. Based in a well-run and strongly militarized area of northern Iraq, it could well emerge as an independent nation state if (as many hypothesize) Iraq breaks up. More troubling, it could then serve as an anchor state aligned with Kurdish separatists in Turkey, a NATO state.An IS off-shoot, “AfPak,” is spearheading a campaign to create what it calls Islamic State of Khorasan. It covers a region spanning Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as parts of Iran, Central Asia, India, and Bangladesh. (The border between Pakistan and India was established in 1947 under what is known as the “Radcliffe Line,” laid out by yet another British colonialist, Sir Cyril Radcliffe.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Feb 2015 03:52

vijaykarthik some thing to mull over about KSA and how they are bribing the citizens:

Singha wrote:NDTV

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA: European leaders are still battling over austerity. The U.S. Congress is gearing up for another fight over the budget. But in Saudi Arabia, there are no such troubles when you are king - and you just dole out billions and billions of dollars to ordinary Saudis by royal decree. Not surprisingly, Saudis are very happy with their new monarch, King Salman.

"It is party time for Saudi Arabia right now," said John Sfakianakis, the Riyadh-based Middle East director of the Ashmore Group, an investment company, who estimates that the king's post-coronation giveaway will ultimately cost more than $32 billion.

That is a lot of cash - more, for example, than the entire annual budget for Nigeria, which has Africa's largest economy.

Since Salman ascended the throne of this wealthy Arab kingdom last month, he has swiftly taken charge, abolishing government bodies and firing ministers. But no measure has caused as much buzz here as the giant payouts he ordered to a large chunk of the Saudi population.

These included grants to professional associations, literary and sports clubs; investments in water and electricity; and bonuses worth two months of salary to all government employees, soldiers, pensioners and students on government stipends at home and abroad. Some private companies followed suit with comparable bonuses for their Saudi employees, putting another few billion dollars into people's pockets.

Some of the government spending will come over years, but most will hit the Saudi market this month, including the bonuses. About 3 million of Saudi Arabia's 5 1/2 million-person workforce are employed by the government, Sfakianakis said.

So, for the moment at least, there is little talk about human rights abuses or political reform. Saudis are spending. Some have treated themselves to new cellphones, handbags and trips abroad. They have paid off debts, given to charity and bought gold necklaces for their mothers. Some men have set aside money to marry a first, second or third wife. One was so pleased that he showered his infant son with crisp bills.

"The first thing I did was go and check my storerooms," said Abdulrahman Alsanidi, who owns a camping supply store in Buraida, north of Riyadh. He expected a 30 percent jump in sales.

Saudi rulers have long used the wealth that comes from being the world's top oil exporter to lavish benefits on their people, and many Saudis describe royal largesse as part of a familylike social contract between rulers and loyal citizens.

But the new spending comes amid change and uncertainty for the kingdom. Salman ascended the throne after the death of King Abdullah and announced the bonuses as a goodwill gesture to his people.

But because about 90 percent of government income comes from oil, the drop in world prices has reduced state revenue by about 20 percent, said Rakan Alsheikh, a research analyst at Jadwa Investment. His company projected that the government would run a record deficit of $44.5 billion in 2015. The new spending could increase that deficit to $67.2 billion, or 9 percent of gross domestic product, Alsheikh said.

Those worries seem far from the SUV-clogged streets of the Saudi capital, where gas costs 45 cents a gallon because of huge state subsidies and people are used to repaying government generosity with public displays of fealty.

"We pledge allegiance to you, hearing and obeying," declare billboards for phone and construction companies.

Average government salaries are about $2,400 per month, with some workers earning additional allowances for transportation, housing, overtime and the holy month of Ramadan. Student stipends are less, while employees with years of service can earn $4,800 per month or more, Sfakianakis said.

As the bonuses have arrived, Saudis have pondered what to do with the cash. Many said government salaries had not kept pace with rising prices, so the bonuses merely helped to fill the gap.

"Mostly rent and traffic tickets," said Shakir Mohammed, an elementary schoolteacher, when asked how he would spend his bonus.

Others said the tradition of patriarchal distribution extended into their own homes, where children and wives expected the bonuses to trickle down.

Abdelrahman Alhadlaq, an adviser to the interior minister, said he would like to invest his bonus but guessed that he would face family pressure to spend it. His wife, a university professor, would get her own, as would three of his nine children.

"So it is the young kids who will benefit," he said, adding that he might treat his wife to a new watch or a trip to Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Many Saudis have taken to social media to express their joy, thanking the king with the hashtag #two_salaries in Arabic and posting jokes. One image showed a blue sky full of outbound airplanes with a caption reading "Saudi airports after the two salaries."

One comedy video showed functionaries cheering, women ululating and a gray-haired man dancing after the bonuses were announced. It ended with a reminder not to forget the mothers "who have given what has no equal."

Such royal gifts are far from unprecedented. King Abdullah announced a 15 percent raise in government salaries after his coronation in 2005, and he issued a one-month salary bonus in 2011 after returning from medical treatment abroad.

Western analysts noted that the last bonus came during the Arab Spring uprisings, when Saudi rulers worried about possible dissent at home.

"We are a welfare society, so the population depends a lot on government subsidies, directly and indirectly," said Abdullah Al-Alami, a Saudi writer and economist. "But one day we are going to run out of oil, and I don't believe it is wise to be pampered and subsidized."
Still, with more than $700 billion in foreign reserves, the Saudi government faces no immediate crunch.

The importance of government patronage is even clearer outside the cities, where nongovernment employment for Saudis is scarce.

Sitting in his vast salon in the village of Butain north of Riyadh, Prince Moteb bin Fahed bin Farhan al-Saud, who lives in the village, asked the 20 or so men visiting who had received a two-month bonus. All raised their hands.

"Now we are asking that the king forgive all the citizen's debts," said one visitor, Mohammed al-Sahli, adding that his bonus would help him marry a third wife.

Over the years, government money had transformed the village. While its residents once mostly farmed and raised animals, few bother to anymore. Electricity and phone service arrived in the 1980s. Now, there is power in every home and 4G data coverage throughout. Every weekday, a bus gives dozens of female students a free ride to the university in town, which is also free, Moteb said.
Driving his SUV through town, Moteb pointed to construction crews building tree-lined roads and roundabouts and a pedestrian area with swing sets and picnic tables.

Downtown stood some of the village's main employers: the local office of the prince of Qassim province; the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, which monitors public morals; and a towering new fire station with shiny new engines.

"The government treats us very well here," said Abdullah al-Sahli, the head of the local government office, who said he had distributed his bonus to his wife and children.

His son Moteb, 6, said he already had two iPads, so he spent the money on a new toy Jeep.

"We have nothing to complain about," Sahli said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Feb 2015 16:39

way i see it, the joint training of moderate syrian rebels will be another disaster.
most of these rebels will promptly sell the high value weapons or just donate them to ISIS in exchange for being left alive in control of their pathetic little fiefdoms
some of the rebels will sell it off on the international market
a few might try to fight the ISIS and Assad on orders of western masters but they really have no stomach or logistics for it...caught in between as they are.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 21 Feb 2015 18:53

The way I see it, it means more funding by KSA king to the local populace.

Scenario: It means merry for all their IS. How? people going to the local mosque and putting a few Riyals in the tipping box... to be promptly given to the IS faction and such. So on and so forth. Anyways, there is a lot of evidence and truth in the facts which mention that Saudi, Qatar and UAE people etc etc pumped in major money through their local mosques to fund the IS... apart from the rulers and other agents.

Oh, shit. I did see this news from my group and cross team forum yday and didn't think much of it except that it will boost consumption and hence economy... but the idea of money going to the local populace (and hence easily to IS) never hit me till I saw it here.

Does this show a bit of circumstantial evidence that Salman is more MB supporting? I think it does. Mmh. Scary. But it might also mean that Egypt will slowly get delinked.

How long before one of the terrorists groups actually embargo Red Sea or Suez Canal?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Feb 2015 19:37

something else might be going on, all of a sudden news reports about how the west might be able to 'do business' with assad and assad giving interviews on the bbc. sounds all a bit too much like the rehabilitation of gaddafi before the final putsch

the egyptians might be getting set up for another coup - by their gulf birathers. all is very murkee onlee

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 21 Feb 2015 19:40

The first step is Yemen. El presidente just escaped house arrest. Nothing has changed in the calculus re. syria. Mere distraction to that there training that just started. 750 or so in the first class.

Egypt and birathers will fight in syria, at least first. A pity since hardware demos are only possible if they fight to the east and not west.

There is good justification for that naval ship + rafale purchase though. Watch out for low/mid russian hardware joining the fight too.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 21 Feb 2015 19:46

i am guessing that egypt under 'secular' military rule does not suit riyadh and doha. they need to ensure MB sunni domination. and then link up with ISIS in libya for full sunni frontage. houthi (shia) victory in yemen will have rattled the sunni cabal. iraq has already gone shia, the alawites are holding on in syria, tehran is making up with washington... things are looking bleak for the wahabbis... so they have to come back with something bigger (???)

perhaps the ukraine episode serves a second purpose of keeping unkil occupied with europe and out of direct involvement in mid east... putin wants the shia to come out on top too

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 Feb 2015 22:13

ramana wrote:NPR had interview with Turki about ISIS and all. He wanted US to depose Assad.

NPR Interview with Turki:Transcript

vijaykarthik read this one. BTW for all Turki was the principal funder of Taliban in 1996.

Copyright ©2015 NPR. For personal, noncommercial use only. See Terms of Use. For other uses, prior permission required.

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

There are doubts in Saudi Arabia about whether there's progress in the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, or ISIS. Defense officials from Arab Gulf States have been meeting in the Saudi capital for two days. NPR's Deborah Amos is there and spoke to a prominent Saudi figure who gave his critique of the fight.

DEBORAH AMOS, BYLINE: The strategy against ISIS was on display this week - a military meeting here in Riyadh, in Washington, a White House summit on combating extremism. At the Pentagon, an announcement that training programs for Syrian rebels begins next month in Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. So far, so good in public, but privately, the Saudi view is that the air campaign is not working.

TURKI AL-FAISAL: Having simply these pinprick attacks on certain areas is not going to resolve the issue.

AMOS: That's Prince Turki al-Faisal. A former intelligence chief and diplomat, he's the outspoken member of the royal family. He says the airstrikes against ISIS are too limited, not well coordinated, and he insists the coalition effort is undermined by politics in Europe and regional mistrust. ISIS is operating in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Air Force hits militant targets in both countries, but the rest of the Western allies stick to targets in Iraq.

AL-FAISAL: Because those guys refuse to operate in Syria. Totally insane. It's the same target but because this is Syria and this is Iraq, the Europeans don't want to hit Syria.

AMOS: At the same time, the Gulf's fighter pilots only hit targets in Syria. Regional mistrust has limited the Gulf's rule in Iraq, says Turki al-Faisal.

AL-FAISAL: Because the Iraqis haven't asked us to. How can we meet this vicious situation if our effort is so disjointed?

AMOS: Iraq's intelligence on ISIS is not shared with Arab partners, he says.

AL-FAISAL: You really have two Air Force coalitions - one operating in Syria, not crossing the border into Iraq. The other operating in Iraq, not crossing the border into Syria. It's insane.

AMOS: In Washington, the Pentagon insists there has been progress. But Dr. Theodore Karasik, a military analyst based in Dubai, says the core militants of ISIS are battle-hardened strategists who can survive airstrikes and still attack.

THEODORE KARASIK: They also have libraries of U.S. Army field manuals. They know exactly how air strikes work. And they are able to succeed because they have this knowledge.

AMOS: ISIS also knows how to thrive in chaos, playing on local grievances of Sunni Arabs. The Saudis insist one way to address those grievances is the removal of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, an ally of Shiite Iran. Riyadh and Washington agree on the goal, but not the timing, and that has led to rifts with Riyadh.

AL-FAISAL: The disease is in the failing states. Iraq, some steps have been taken to rectify that, but it's still a work in progress. In Syria, nothing has been done.

AMOS: Turki al-Faisal says that Sunni anger must be addressed before ISIS can be defeated. Deborah Amos, NPR News, Riyadh.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 22 Feb 2015 00:02

Lalmohan wrote:i am guessing that egypt under 'secular' military rule does not suit riyadh and doha. they need to ensure MB sunni domination. and then link up with ISIS in libya for full sunni frontage. houthi (shia) victory in yemen will have rattled the sunni cabal. iraq has already gone shia, the alawites are holding on in syria, tehran is making up with washington... things are looking bleak for the wahabbis... so they have to come back with something bigger (???)

perhaps the ukraine episode serves a second purpose of keeping unkil occupied with europe and out of direct involvement in mid east... putin wants the shia to come out on top too

This is where Turkey comes in. My guess is Turkey will now "collude" with ISIS more thoroughly. Turkey will want to ensure Iran's influence diminishes in the new Iraq. They will most likely arrange for cash transfers to keep the Sunni Jihadis happy and motivated to fight. Or take up some of the financial burden of providing arms/ammunition. Either way, the Kurds, Yazidis, and others are looking at continued support for ISIS from Sunni birathers.

Jordan, I think, is a cooked goose. a Turkey+Saudi axis will almost certainly try to gobble up Jordan into the Sunni alliance. if the Jordan Royals oppose or stand in way, there will be another "spring" there.

In conclusion, it is inevitable now that a Sunni axis of Turkey-Sauds will want as much of the Sunnis under one banner as possible.

It will be interesting to see how the Turkish Gulenists view the MB in Egypt. This is turning out to be a mother of all fights between Sunni, Shia (Turk/Gulf, Persian spheres of influence), Russia, USA, and Europeans looking increasingly uneasy with the rise of Jihad on their borderlands and across the Mediterranean.

this is "back to history". the old Roman/Persian rivalry, then the Western-Empire/Byzantine/Persian rivalry, Rome/Carthage rivalry, Spanish/Moorish conflicts, and many more historic rivalries/conflict-zones all activating simultaneously.

I think it is safe to say that Post-WWII age is over. The Jihadis have successfully destroyed the Franco-Brit paradigm and continue to undo what's left of that legacy. In essence, this is the foundation of a much broader future conflict that will also bring in India as a target for Jihad. We need to prepare ourselves for the ruthless and costly fight that is coming up. Stop being enamored of 10% GDP growth and start seeing that there is a fundamental struggle going on for the very survival of which ideologies/values get to live and survive, and which are extinguished into museums and perhaps out of the memory of humans.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 22 Feb 2015 01:06

it means more funding by KSA king to the local populace.

Rebels/ISIL/moderates/ all mobs get their yahoos from same jihadi pool.

In other news, Israel digging for oil in Golan heights.
link

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 22 Feb 2015 08:32

turkey makes its move -- http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world ... s-say.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2015 09:27

I'm the two crooks in charge turkey and ksa will fall out sooner or later who is the bigger dog.

Turkey has a much more well trained and large military, population and had the longest caliphate.
They also have nato as backstop nd control the sea route to Caucasus.

Ksa is custodian of holy sites, a lot of oil, more favour with Americans and home of mohammads quraysh tribe the blueest of blue blood.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2015 09:32

Al Baghdadi is a qureishi iirc.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 22 Feb 2015 09:43

Curious case of the pot calling the kettle black:
http://world.einnews.com/article/251109 ... 1-Saturday

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 22 Feb 2015 14:51

Singha wrote:NDTV
"Now we are asking that the king forgive all the citizen's debts," said one visitor, Mohammed al-Sahli, adding that his bonus would help him marry a third wife.[/b]

Lookout for increased arrivals at Hyderabad etc.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 22 Feb 2015 15:11

turks raided syria and secured the remains of the founder of the ottoman dynasty, the tomb complex was destroyed and the remains moved to another area. says they will relocate the tomb (within syria -in an area controlled by the turkish military) to prevent it being attacked by ISIS - as long threatened. seems that the turks have deployed troops to protect the tomb for some time. but the threat must have increased for them to move the remains
syria is pretty much broken up into little fiefdoms i guess, and iraq too...

the post colonial redrawing of the maps i underway

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2015 17:44

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wp-content ... -Syria.png

like consular compound , turkey has a special right under treaty to this tomb of suleyman shah around 35km inside syria.
yesterday some 100 tanks and IFVs with 600 troops drove there, removed the relics and demolished the tomb before leaving back to turkey.
one soldier was killed in a accident and there was no fighting.
planes and drones provided cover.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 22 Feb 2015 17:56

I would assume that Shia Iraq will take revenge by meddling in restive Shia underbelly of Saudi Arabia.

arun · Post by **arun** » 22 Feb 2015 20:07

Shreeman wrote:turkey makes its move -- http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world ... s-say.html

The Return of the Turkish Caliphate to Arab lands?

It will be interesting to see what if any reaction will come out of the Arab League for this blatant Turkish invasion and occupation of Arab Land. Turkey has simply exhumed the body of Suleyman Shah and relocated it to a location on Syrian territory that is more defensible from the Turkish border.

Meanwhile Syria is protesting the invasion and continuing occupation of their territory by Turkey:

Turkey’s transgression into Syrian territory proves its connection with ISIS, Foreign Ministry says

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Feb 2015 20:58

The relics are still in Syria at new location 200m inside the border.
No doubt a identical tomb will be built there soon.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 23 Feb 2015 02:52

Monkeys are now writing shakespeare -- http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast ... story.html

No one cares about suleyman shah. The new shrines will be for erdogan. Why do they bother even writing up this stuff? Anerican or european public could not possibly care less. And I doubt the propaganda reaches anyone else.

Its just 15 years -- we have gotten back to 1500s or 700s and as far as I can tell no one seems to care until their own roof gets dislodged.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 23 Feb 2015 02:56

Singha wrote:I'm the two crooks in charge turkey and ksa will fall out sooner or later who is the bigger dog.

Turkey has a much more well trained and large military, population and had the longest caliphate.
They also have nato as backstop nd control the sea route to Caucasus.

Ksa is custodian of holy sites, a lot of oil, more favour with Americans and home of mohammads quraysh tribe the blueest of blue blood.

KSA runs the show. Erdogan is just a lame orderly. Dont let the appearsnces fool you. It is one thing Abdullahs reign did to secure KSA -- buy turkey.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Feb 2015 04:00

vijaykarthik, Is there a family tree of Ibn Saud and his progeny?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 23 Feb 2015 05:53

IS is not going to be defeated. The Taliban model has been tested out and it works. People claiming to want to defeat IS were the very ones who experimented on the Taliban model.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 23 Feb 2015 07:43

Rant that I added to my group:

Dont quite know where to tag it. But a very interesting dev - turkey moved into Syria to exhume the remains of the Shah and relocate it to a different place where it can be guarded better.

The funny thing is that the IS never attacked the tomb though they attacked a fair bit of the areas close to it.

Rant
In the meanwhile the background is even more interesting. As we have mentioned it earlier... a newer deal to train more armed moderate rebels and militias. By Turkey and the US. Who will quite accidentally make their way to the IS because of frustration and what not.

And Salman has given out an extra ordinary bonus... which is of course a good thing in itself... but on deeper thinking, a bit of which will accidentally make its accidental and unintended way to the IS coffers by we-know-how it moves.

Law of unintended consequences... and we freaking worry about how the IS gets trained and funded and how it ends up knowing how to use cool west weapons and how they are so relevant with the ways of the world and what not.

I just dont understand the ways of the world and more particularly the idiots at the top.

End rant.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 23 Feb 2015 07:44

there surely is one, Ramana. I have seen it multiple times. the ibn saud sudairi seven and such. I will pick that for the group and post it in a while!

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 23 Feb 2015 07:54

vijaykarthik wrote: I just dont understand the ways of the world and more particularly the idiots at the top.

You seem to be assuming those tools at the top know what they are doing -- they are being adviced by the same f@rts in academia who think that Russia is a bigger threat to this planet than ISIS. These aholes at the top get there because of a mix of cleverness, ambition, luck (being at the right place at the right time) and because everyone else was less of a player than they were...they have ****** up spectacularly over and over again, and decades later admit their "mistake" (after refusing to consider other points of view when they could do something about it). A great example is Robert Macnamara who sent 10000s of American kids to their death, he had the highest IQ in the world at that time (if you believe in IQ tests) and decided to send them to their deaths to fight the evil called communism -- there is probably some other ahole in his place right now taking on Russia over ukraine and pretending ISIS can be manipulated to his will. It is a general rule that when it comes to complex situations, everyone is working off partial information and also usually absolutely certain that they have figured it all out. No one really knows what the f*** they are doing -- they just do sh!t and the masses (the same aholes in academia and think tanks) either decry them as murderers or great men a few decades after the fact. Robert MacNamara went back to Vietnam to apologize to them for all the pain and misery he had caused, in some fit on contrition in his old age, and they and mocked and laughed at his sorry ass.