Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 03 Mar 2015 11:55

Black money: Govt to provide short compliance window for tax evaders - Livemint

Its an interview with revenue secretary Shaktikanta Das.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Mar 2015 12:30

This latest agreement between RBI and GOI on inflation targetting should lay to rest all speculation on RR being a western stooge. If we have to call anyone a western stooge after this then it has to be GOI and JetLi/Modi specifically.

http://www.financialexpress.com/article ... [quote]The RBI’s governor will determine the country’s key interest rates or any measures needed to achieve that inflation target.
..........
While the agreement gives a free hand to the RBI Governor to decide on the monetary policy measures to achieve the inflation target, it also requires the RBI to give out to the Central Government a report in case the target is missed for a period of time.

The RBI is also required to make public every six months a document explaining the sources of inflation and the inflation forecast for the period between 6-8 months.[/quote]
Also, I don't think the chief economic adviser spoke out of turn on building up the Forex reserves of up to $1 Trillion in the years ahead.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Mar 2015 12:46

On Gold, I don't think the GOI/RBI is stocking up on gold. The issue is not even the current level of imports and its impact on the CAD. The Rupee is not going to be backed by Gold to any substantial level anytime soon.

The issue is pure and simple the demand of gold in the future. As India starts on the path to a middle income country with a young population, the number of marriages and the consequent demand for gold will just shoot through the roof. The gold monetization effort is being started to cope up with this latent but imminent demand.

The upper class may or may not have moved on but the middle and neo-middle class are going to go after gold like crazy with the rise in income.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 03 Mar 2015 12:59

We can disagree with the things RR says, etc. And I think that he spoke with unnecessary laxity on political issues not germane to his role - though he was speaking at a very specific function, etc.

But if any one of you were the son of a RAW officer, would you like being called a Western stooge? Anywhere? I think not. So kindly desist from this kind of crap. Remember half of us are happily making these allegations while sitting in Western countries earning money from Euro/American companies or their populations ... If that spotlight is turned even briefly, comfort levels will plummet pretty quickly.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 03 Mar 2015 14:18

RBI refuses to share inspection reports with intel agencies
http://www.rediff.com/business/report/r ... 150303.htm

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has refused to share its banks' inspection reports on alleged money laundering laws and other violations with Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB), citing legal hurdles.

The RBI was required to share relevant extracts of inspection reports with law enforcement agencies and CEIB, an apex intelligence agency under the Finance Ministry, to check black money and other financial crimes where gross violations of Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines and Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) are noticed, official sources said.

It had earlier given assurance about sharing of information relating to Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) violations with CEIB, which they share with Enforcement Directorate (ED), they said.

But the central bank has not been sharing such information, the sources said. The matter of non-sharing of inspection reports by RBI with CEIB was discussed during a recent meeting of the Economic Intelligence Council (EIC) headed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

At the meeting, it was highlighted by the CEIB chief that while initially RBI had agreed to share the extracts of inspection reports with it but, later on, they changed their stand.

RBI has cited "legal impediments" in sharing the reports with CEIB as it is not a statutory body, the sources said quoting minutes of the meeting.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has also highlighted the issue of "non-cooperation" by RBI in sharing the information sought by the income tax department under it.

RBI had reportedly refused to share the inspection reports of a few banks, which were penalised by it, on non-compliance of KYC norms.

The CBDT representative at the meeting said that the same information was available in the public domain, but was refused by the central bank, they said.

RBI, in its response, has said that the issue of sharing such information pertains to violation of its guidelines. Hence, they could not be shared, the sources said.

Finance Ministry officials emphasised that the CBDT and CEIB are interested only in relevant extracts like KYC violations and other such contraventions and not detailed objection on the working of banks and, therefore, the information sought by them should be made available by RBI.

At the meeting, the Finance Minister said that there are many government bodies which are not created by statutes.

"If RBI can share information with Intelligence Bureau (IB), which is also not a statutory body, then what is the impediment in sharing (it) with CEIB," according to the minutes of the meeting.

It was decided that the matter regarding sharing of information by RBI with non-statutory bodies (like CEIB, IB, FIU, etc.) shall be referred to the Law Ministry for its advice, the sources said.

According to CEIB officials, the matter remains unresolved so far. The CEIB can help in checking money laundering and other financial crimes if such inspection reports are shared by RBI in time, they said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Mar 2015 14:49

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has refused to share its banks' inspection reports on alleged money laundering laws and other violations with Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB), citing legal hurdles.

this is what I was referring to. RBI is not under the finance ministry's control due to whatever act of law it was based on and under the 'right' kind of leadership can act like the judiciary does in opposing whatever govt of the day proposes.

it seems like a parallel govt is in place with even GOI not fully owning the financial policy of the nation. is this not undemocratic that the elected govt of the day cannot fully exert control over what is not a court that needs indepdence but just a bank and policy body in financial space.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 03 Mar 2015 16:13

GD, it's a bureaucratic tussle. RBI shares data with IB. And certainly, they will hand data to CEIB, provided legal cover is there for any lawsuit later...

Right now, it looks like some lawyer within RBI quietly pointed out, as our babus like to put it, "this lacuna"; he's basically doing his job. Someone has to make the necessary adjustments. Law ministry will "clarify" and the matter will be sorted.

Bloody MSM creating a thunderstorm out of a fart.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 03 Mar 2015 19:25

A_Gupta wrote:An inoculation against libertarian economists like Rothbard:
http://aeon.co/magazine/technology/on-t ... -internet/

What do you know about the difference between Neo-Classical economics and Austrian economics? Or are you a shoot and scoot type person.

negi · Post by **negi** » 03 Mar 2015 19:25

JE Menon wrote: But if any one of you were the son of a RAW officer

That should have no bearing on how a person is perceived, sadly this mentality is the bane of our country why should anyone be evaluated based on what his father was or did ? Again I am not trying to justify name calling or any such stuff.

Mani Shanker Iyer uses the same logic Rahul is great because he is a Gandhi and Modi is an idiot because he cannot speak English and used to sell tea.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Mar 2015 20:36

and panditji was the son of a eminent and wealthy lawyer of the united provinces and hence better suited to the PM than a rustic man like sardar patel who was not so eloquent with his english.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Mar 2015 03:44

Telcos gear up for fierce battle in spectrum auction from Wednesday

The intensity of competition this time could be gauged from the fact that the eight operators have already deposited a combined Rs 20,000 crore as earnest money fixed by the government (a percentage of the spectrum base price, depending on circles). Companies get eligibility points on the basis of their earnest money deposits — the higher the deposit the higher the points for participation in the auction.

The government has its own projections. It says it is looking at overall realisations between Rs 60,000 crore and Rs 1,00,000 crore — about Rs 22,000 crore of that in the current financial year, as companies make only 25-33 per cent upfront payment. These proceeds are seen as crucial for the government to balance its fiscal deficit.

Govt readies stake sale pipeline worth Rs 30k cr

To meet the disinvestment target of Rs 69,500 crore for 2015-16, the highest ever, the government has in place a pipeline, in various stages of regulatory approval, Disinvestment Secretary Aradhana Johri said on Tuesday. “In terms of the stocks we have initiated approvals for, the pipeline would be more than Rs 30,000 crore,” she told Business Standard in her first post-Budget interview.

The disinvestment target for 2015-16 can be divided into Rs 41,000 crore from minority stake sale in listed public sector undertakings (PSUs) and Rs 28,500 crore from what the Budget termed “strategic sales”.

Roads, which languished during UPA rule, gets a major boost:
Capital funding for road construction at Rs 33,048 cr, highest in a decade

The highways sector received the highest support in this Budget. While the budgetary support for 2014-15 was Rs 28,881 crore, it has jumped by 50 per cent in 2015-16 to Rs 42,912 crore. However, the fine print tells a better story of a 109 per cent jump in allocation for capital expenses.

Plan expenditure constitutes of two avenues of allocation — revenue and capital. While the former entails expenses used up within the same financial year, the latter is concerned with development of assets with productive value much beyond the current financial year. In the context of the road ministry, the revenue expenditure would involve paying salaries of employees and administrative costs. Capital expenditure, on the other hand, would mean construction of roads and highways, which are essentially long-term assets for the economy.

On that front, this Budget saw a massive 109 per cent jump in the capital allocation, the highest in recent times. In the previous decade, only the last year of the United Progressive Alliance-II government 2013-14 had seen a jump of over 50 per cent.

Karnataka reaches saturation in Jan Dhan Yojana expansion

Karnataka has been declared as saturated in implementation of the Prime Minister’s Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) by the State Level Monitoring Committee. Since the launch of the PMJDY on August 28, 2014, banks have achieved a 98.37 per cent progress in the state, the State Level Bankers’ Committee (SLBC) said.

Banks have completed household survey in all the 7,627 sub-service areas (SSAs) and 4,559 wards in Karnataka state, covering 8.06 million households in SSAs and 5.13 million households in wards (totaling 13.20 million). As against this, banks have covered 7.96 million households in SSAs and 5.02 million households in wards by opening a minimum one account per household, thereby achieving a 98.37 per cent progress, T K Srivastava, executive director of Syndicate Bank and convener of SLBC said.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Mar 2015 05:06

An American POV on the Indian Budget:
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/03/01/th ... -resolute/

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Mar 2015 05:08

panduranghari wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:An inoculation against libertarian economists like Rothbard:
http://aeon.co/magazine/technology/on-t ... -internet/
What do you know about the difference between Neo-Classical economics and Austrian economics? Or are you a shoot and scoot type person.

You brought Rothbard into here, but OT for this thread.
PS: but this might help you: http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/whyaust.htm

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 04 Mar 2015 08:08

Surprise Repo rate cut by 25 basis points.
This is the second time an out of turn rate cut was given by RBI Gov.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Mar 2015 08:28

It looks like Rajan wants to be seen as unpredictable, in order to compel responsiveness from GoI. Clearly the rate cut is a vote of confidence in the budget and agreement that industrial production can only revive if rates are lower.
Rajan Cuts India Rates in Unscheduled Move After Modi Budget

India’s central bank lowered interest rates in an unscheduled move for the second time this year, a sign of approval for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first full-year budget.

Governor Raghuram Rajan cut the benchmark repurchase rate to 7.5 percent from 7.75 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement on Wednesday. The RBI will seek to bring the inflation rate “to the mid-point” of the inflation target of 4 percent plus or minus 2 percent by the end of a two-year period starting in the fiscal year through March 2017, Rajan said.

“The fiscal consolidation program, while delayed, may compensate in quality, especially if state governments are cooperative,” Rajan said in the statement. “Given low capacity utilisation and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the Reserve Bank to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilize available space for monetary accommodation.”

The decision came four days after Modi pushed back deficit targets to spur economic growth through corporate tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure. More than a dozen central banks from Turkey to China have eased policy in 2015 as a slide in oil prices damps inflation.

Interest-rate swaps show that investors are betting that India will cut interest rates by about 75 basis points by the end of 2015, the steepest decrease after Turkey among 14 emerging markets tracked by HSBC Holdings Plc.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 04 Mar 2015 09:49

Government plans to replicate Jan Dhan Yojana model; to open demat accounts to perk up retail play in equities
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 449004.cms

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2015 11:31

Revenue neutral GST rate being worked out.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 04 Mar 2015 15:45

A_Gupta wrote:
You brought Rothbard into here, but OT for this thread.
PS: but this might help you: http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/whyaust.htm

Yeabut you did not answer the question- do YOU understand the difference between Austrian business school economics and neo-classical economics also called as Chicago business school economics?

I could also post a link - http://www.cato-unbound.org/2012/09/13/ ... yan-caplan which counters Caplan. This makes no sense to just post opinions of one or another.

Can you state 'in your opinion' the fundamental difference between the 2 schools?

James B · Post by **James B** » 04 Mar 2015 16:06

For some reason rate-cut surprise didn't go well with the market. Is it because of profit booking by FIIs are something else?.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2015 16:57

FII net buyers todin by about 2,700+ cr; DII net buyers by about 16 cr. Flash news so may be the numbers are hiding some details.

James B · Post by **James B** » 04 Mar 2015 17:05

pankajs wrote:FII net buyers todin by about 2,700+ cr; DII net buyers by about 16 cr. Flash news so may be the numbers are hiding some details.

2000 Cr of 2700 cr is the Eicher motors deal.

M Joshi · Post by **M Joshi** » 04 Mar 2015 19:20

Suraj wrote: Roads, which languished during UPA rule, gets a major boost:
Capital funding for road construction at Rs 33,048 cr, highest in a decade
The highways sector received the highest support in this Budget. While the budgetary support for 2014-15 was Rs 28,881 crore, it has jumped by 50 per cent in 2015-16 to Rs 42,912 crore. However, the fine print tells a better story of a 109 per cent jump in allocation for capital expenses.

Plan expenditure constitutes of two avenues of allocation — revenue and capital. While the former entails expenses used up within the same financial year, the latter is concerned with development of assets with productive value much beyond the current financial year. In the context of the road ministry, the revenue expenditure would involve paying salaries of employees and administrative costs. Capital expenditure, on the other hand, would mean construction of roads and highways, which are essentially long-term assets for the economy.

On that front, this Budget saw a massive 109 per cent jump in the capital allocation, the highest in recent times. In the previous decade, only the last year of the United Progressive Alliance-II government 2013-14 had seen a jump of over 50 per cent.

Quite true. 6 laning of NH-1 from Panipat to Jalandhar has been languishing for maybe over 8-10 years. The 6 laning work had at least 3-4 dozen flyovers which were not complete & there was no work till now which forced the traffic to move in single service lane on the sides. Now at least half of these 6 lane flyovers have been made operational in the last few months & seeing the men & machinery on work, I'd say tops by 6-8 months travel time from Chandigarh to Delhi will reduce to 3 hours from current 4 hours. I read somewhere about the same thing happening on Gurgaon Jaipur highway as well.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Mar 2015 21:55

James B wrote:For some reason rate-cut surprise didn't go well with the market. Is it because of profit booking by FIIs are something else?.

Single day market behavior is not really worth analyzing. Too much random noise at that level.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 04 Mar 2015 23:26

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Mar 2015 02:43

Singha wrote:and panditji was the son of a eminent and wealthy lawyer of the united provinces and hence better suited to the PM than a rustic man like sardar patel who was not so eloquent with his english.

GD, Sardar Patel was also a barrister educated in London:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vallabhbhai_Patel

... At the age of 36, he journeyed to England and enrolled at the Middle Temple Inn in London. Finishing a 36-month course in 30 months, Patel topped his class despite having no previous college background.

Nehru on toher hand was:

...The son of Motilal Nehru, a prominent lawyer and nationalist statesman and Swaroop Rani, Nehru was a graduate of Trinity College, Cambridge and the Inner Temple, where he trained to be a barrister.

So there.

disha · Post by **disha** » 05 Mar 2015 04:45

Back to Coal Auction:

I predicted that the subsequent rounds will attract higher bids. Let us see if 12 Lakh Crore is reached or breached.

http://www.financialexpress.com/article ... e-i/50435/

on the first-day of bidding for the near-operational blocks, the winning prices went past the lowest successful bids in the first phase.

Bids crossed 10,000 Crore Rs. for 3 Mines.

To put in perspective: Rs. 10,00,00,00,00,000 (or 1 followed by 12 zeroes).

PS: I am thinking of starting a fund to sue Zero loss Sibal and all of the CONgI cronies and #mediapimps that supported the zero loss theory. Sibal and CONgI cronies should be sued for 1. lying to the nation and 2. scamming from the nation.

Melwyn · Post by **Melwyn** » 05 Mar 2015 06:43

--deleted--

Melwyn · Post by **Melwyn** » 05 Mar 2015 06:43

M Joshi wrote: Quite true. 6 laning of NH-1 from Panipat to Jalandhar has been languishing for maybe over 8-10 years. The 6 landing work had at least 3-4 dozen flyovers which were not complete & there was no work till now which forced the traffic to move in single service lane on the sides. Now at least half of these 6 lane flyovers have been made operational in the last few months & seeing the men & machinery on work, I'd say tops by 6-8 months travel time from Chandigarh to Delhi will reduce to 3 hours from current 4 hours. I read somewhere about the same thing happening on Gurgaon Jaipur highway as well.

How many will remember this during election time and vote for BJP?
Unless BJP puts a big poster and does media tamasha on the spot nobody will care to know.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 05 Mar 2015 08:13

amitkv wrote:How many will remember this during election time and vote for BJP?
Unless BJP puts a big poster and does media tamasha on the spot nobody will care to know.

Well they forgot the Golden Quadrilateral quite easily in 2004.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 05 Mar 2015 08:17

Suraj,

This is what you were saying earlier about RR. As RBI governor all his views will be considered as policy remarks and will be calculated into prices.

Why Raghuram Rajan Apologised to the Public

Read story: http://profit.ndtv.com/news/budget/arti ... ion-744259

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 05 Mar 2015 08:47

Yes, RR needs to be more circumspect. He let all the MSM adulation get into his head and forgot that the central bank chief needs to speak very little and in very careful words.

His recent decisionmaking is rather odd. He avoids cutting rates in the December policy review, then cuts rates in January. Then again refuses to cut rates in Feb policy review and cuts rates within days of budget in March, despite GoI diluting its fiscal management goals slightly in order to fund the infrastructure investment efforts.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 05 Mar 2015 16:53

regarding gold, i would add the new gold coin and/or gold bonds movement tied up to indic wimmen greed on gold. the faster we reduce the 22 carat design desires, the faster we can convert them to 24 carat ashok chakra gold coins.

as a staging, wimmen can turn their gold for coins as a beginning or secure them in banks as bonds. it is more valuable to keep them at 24c. it is a huge custom/pisskological factor that would be like another aap movement among the ladies club.. not easy! .. even if gov can always certify their designed jewelry is not worth the bonds/coins.

so, target only 50% of their assets for coins and bonds now.

slowly, this will move towards the haves vs havenots!

============
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_201 ... rkets_fall
gold value peaked when economy collapsed!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 05 Mar 2015 17:05

On Gold> I read/heard somewhere yesterday that 200 tons of the roughly 800-1000 tons demand is for gold bars and coins.

This demand for bars and coins (except to hoard black money and demand on Lakshmi puja, Asksaya Tritya and Dhanteras) can easily move to gold bonds, etc.

The jewellery demand will remain high and sticky for a long time to come. If the accumulated bars and coins can be re-directed it will make a dent in imports.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 05 Mar 2015 17:22

Lot of folks convert undeclared real estate gains and other black money into gold bars. GoI should find a way to bring this gold into the system.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 05 Mar 2015 18:49

Direct tax collections up 10.67% in 11 months of FY'15.

Collection from direct taxes rose by 10.67 per cent to Rs 6.12 lakh crore in the first 11 months of the current financial year in line with the revised Budget projections. During the April-February period of the last fiscal, the government had collected Rs 5.53 lakh crore under this head.

As per the Budget for 2014-15, the revenue mop up from direct taxes was targeted at Rs 7.36 lakh crore. It was, however, revised downwards to 7.05 lakh crore as per the revised estimate in the Budget for 2015-16. Thus, as per the revised estimates, government expects a 10.5 per cent increase in direct tax collections over the previous fiscal which was Rs 6.38 lakh crore.

As per the Budget estimate for 2014-15, the growth expected in direct tax mop-up was pegged at 16 per cent. During the 11-month period, corporate tax collection grew by 9.99 per cent at Rs 3.79 lakh crore. It was Rs 3.45 lakh crore during the corresponding period of last fiscal.

Similarly, the personal Income Tax collection, was up by 11.10 per cent, at Rs 2.25 lakh crore in the April-February period as against Rs 2.02 lakh crore in the same period last year. Securities Transaction Tax (STT) collection surged by 45.44 per cent at Rs 6,280 crore in the 11-month period due to buoyancy in the stock market.

The net direct tax collection rose at a lower pace of 6.88 per cent to about Rs 5.06 lakh crore, as against Rs 4.74 lakh crore in the same period last year, primarily on account of higher refunds. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley have been talking about large number of refunds being given out by the Tax authorities.

Advance tax collection has shown a growth of 13.41 per cent during April-February period 2014-15, as against the growth of 8.67 per cent shown at the same time previous year. Growth in TDS is 7.49 per cent as against 16.69 per cent in the same period last year.

The self-assessment tax shows a growth of 22.50 per cent as against 9.91 per cent in the same period last year. The growth in Regular Tax is 9.09 per cent as against 29.97 per cent in the same period last year.

For the current fiscal, the government has revised downwards the total tax revenue (including indirect taxes) to Rs 12.51 lakh crore as against the budget estimate of Rs 13.6 lakh crore.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Mar 2015 21:26

JE Menon wrote:
But if any one of you were the son of a RAW officer, would you like being called a Western stooge? Anywhere? I think not. .

Perhaps you forgot Rabinder Singh. What would you call his son or daughter? Just reminding that nothing is absolute as it seems.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Mar 2015 21:50

Please don't be ridiculous. Rabinder Singh is a traitor. Are you comparing RR's father to him? On what basis?

Think before you post.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 05 Mar 2015 22:20

I thought your post referred to a RAW Officer and not RR.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Mar 2015 23:11

RR's father was an intelligence officer, fairly senior if I'm right. And even if he was not, and even if I was referring to the average RAW officer, how are you making the comparison to Rabinder Singh who is a traitor to the country? Is the average RAW officer a traitor? And BRFites are the judges?

I don't like to be harsh, but people here are too quick to pull the trigger these days - someone does not agree with your viewpoint, and he's a stooge!

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 05 Mar 2015 23:38

his father was #2 and acting chief of raaa when he was sidelined by RaGa the original.