Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 14 Mar 2015 12:50

This means many more months of bean counting.What I expect is that in Paris,the French will offer a final deal to the PM with some freebies thrown in,esp. if there is a package deal proposed for tankers,etc.
However,one musn't imagine that there will be other interested parties who will also in the intervening time offer their attractive packages also. Now that uncertainity has been publicly expressed over the deal,all the other contenders will be doing their best to use the window of opportunity that has emerged.
"The IAF proposes,but the MOD disposes!"

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 14 Mar 2015 15:51

I saw this and I am posting (not sure if someone's done it already):

http://in.rbth.com/multimedia/infograph ... 41831.html

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 16 Mar 2015 09:07

Jaishankar to visit France to better defence ties
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 26756.aspx

Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar leaves on a three-day visit to France and Germany later this month in a last-minute bid to seek closure to $23-billion Dassault Rafale fighter deal and an early works agreement with Areva on the Jaitapur nuclear power project in return for critical “Make in India” defence technologies and a joint venture for making large forgings for civilian nuclear reactors.

Jaishankar, who will visit both countries between March 25 and 27, will get the groundwork done for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Paris (April 10-11) and Hannover (April 12-13).

While India is looking towards skill development and deepening of economic ties with Germany, the bilateral relationship with Paris is centred on space, defence and strategic ties.

Although it is still early days with agreements work in progress, the finalisation of the deal for 126 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) and freezing of technical parameters for the first two 1650 MW nuclear reactors with manufacturer Areva is a distinct possibility as both countries are eager to push their strategic relationship forward.

adityadange · Post by **adityadange** » 16 Mar 2015 13:39

what i read is 23 billion for 126 rafales and 2 nuclear power plants (may include cost of supporting infra for additional power plants).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Mar 2015 22:36

just for info. What is the Rafale supply chain? Is it only French or extends all over EU?

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 16 Mar 2015 23:27

Rafale is french. They broke away from the Eu-farter and created there own but the missiles like meteor may have some EU parts.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 16 Mar 2015 23:33

Ramana, mostly French owned (eg includes Safran subsidiaries in Belgium f.e.) but a fair amount of EU stuff and US gear too (Moog actuators, just like with the LCA)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Mar 2015 01:19

just for info. What is the Rafale supply chain? Is it only French or extends all over EU?

Recall one of the segments that was opposed to this sale to India (the way it is written up) was/is suppliers in France. As much as Indians would be thrilled with a "ToT", there will be French who would hate to see their business slip.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Mar 2015 18:42

What I read is just $23B for 126 Rafales! That makes the Rafale as expensive as a 5th-gen JSF now pegged by the USN at $144M/aircraft (read the latest post in the JSF td) ! It will probably be costlier than even the FGFA.How much is the est cost of the proposed Areva N-plants? One can easily see if the $23B includes or excludes the N-plants. At these prices ($23B) it's simply scandalous to buy the Rafale.

nash · Post by **nash** » 17 Mar 2015 20:43

as per wiki, cost of Areva EPR can be 5-6 billion $. so, if we consider and minus the cost of 2 reactor from 23 figure then it come down to 10-12 billion $, which i think very much inline with the initial cost of MMRCA.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 17 Mar 2015 21:33

I expect the Rafale is priced in EUR. EUR/INR has fallen from 85 to 66 in the past 12 months.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Mar 2015 00:57

USD vs. Euro and INR will be gaining strength as US Fed will increase interest rates between Jun-Sep of this year.
A 15% down payment is due on contract signing and my guess is that the deal will be kicked down the road until after monsoon. Depending on what happens with rains and US Fed, INR may be in a good place.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Mar 2015 08:31

Thakur_B, Nikhil_P, Maitya, Prasanna Simha, Kartik - gents are you interested in contributing to the R&D details on the BR Main site? Do let me or rahul m know.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 18 Mar 2015 09:08

Hi Karan..Rahul did contact me, but I forgot to get back to him..sure I could contribute.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Mar 2015 09:09

The DM has stated to parliament (media today) that the French must honour the terms of the deal and that India cannot wait "indefinitely" for them to make up their minds.It is the strongest statement yet from the DM and the ball is now firmly in the French court. From this statement,one can surmise that the huge price escalation will not be accepted. If no solution is found before Mr.Modi's visit to Paris,then all bets are off.

adityadange · Post by **adityadange** » 18 Mar 2015 10:45

as per jaitapur wiki article first 2 sets of the power plants cost around $9.3 billion. so rafale deal price is around $14 billion. (13.7 to be precise)

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Mar 2015 15:48

Parrikar Puts his Foot Down, No Compromise on Rafale Deal

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 718998.ece

NEW DELHI: Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has conveyed to the French government and defence equipment manufacturer Dassault that conditions on the price and RFP (request for proposal) of the purchase of Rafale multi-medium role combat aircraft were non-negotiable.

In riposte to a question on the long-delayed deal with the French firm for 126 fighter jets -- often called the mother of all deals -- Parrikar on Tuesday said, ”We have conveyed our stand to them (France) very clearly. Simultaneously, they have to tell us whether they can do it or not. We can’t keep on waiting.”

Parrikar’s French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian had visited India last month to attend a meeting with delegates from both sides, including top executives from Dassault, in a last ditch effort to save the deal. However, little progress has been made so far. Earlier, Parrikar had said if the on-going deadlock continued, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would strengthen the existing Su-30Mki fleet to meet the IAF’s requirements.

Citing cost escalation, Dassault has refused to take ‘full responsibility’ of the 108 fighters to be manufactured in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) as per the original tender.

Sources within the MoD privy to the development said the cost of the project had shot up to over $20 billion from the initial $ 12 billion, when the tender was floated in 2007.

The cost negotiation committee set up to finalise the modalities of the deal in February, 2012, has not reached a consensus so far.

adityadange · Post by **adityadange** » 18 Mar 2015 16:16

i guess this deal will be cancelled and follow on scorpenes will be ordered to console the french plus couple of nuclear power plants.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 18 Mar 2015 16:34

^^How is India obligated to console the french? Why do the french feel they are entitled to anything from India? If they offer the best value for money they may hope to get a deal.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Mar 2015 18:19

ON A WING AND A SPARE
By Ajit K. Dubey
Story Dated: Monday, March 16, 2015

http://week.manoramaonline.com/cgi-bin/ ... Id=-225861

Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha burst a cluster bomb at the last combined commanders conference on October 17, which was Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first. If the government wanted his force to guard the frontiers with Pakistan and China well, he would need at least 45 squadrons of fighter jets; he had hardly 34!

Raha, soft-spoken and not known for theatrics, stunned the prime minister and the entire security establishment. This was probably the first time that an Air Force chief had told the government, after Shashindra Pal Tyagi wrote to the government eight years ago and leaked his letter, that his force was in such a bad state that he would not be able to do his duty.

With the decision on the long-demanded 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft getting delayed, there is no hope of augmenting the fleet in the near future. Though there is an overall increase of about Rs25,000 crore in the defence budget, there is a drastic cut in the money allotted for aircraft purchase. The allocation to the IAF for buying aircraft and aero-engines has been slashed from Rs21,461.39 crore to Rs18,866.01 crore.

Money can be allocated only after a purchase decision has been approved, and, as of now, there is none on the IAF's plate. “The explanation for the delays in procurement should not be asked of the man in uniform,” said retired air chief marshal P.V. Naik. “The bureaucracy is responsible for procuring equipment for the services.”

With its squadron strength depleting fast, the IAF has no go but to progressively scale down the magnitude of its mandated tasks. There was a time in the early 2000s when the force, flush with the victory in the Kargil war and with the prospect of several squadrons of lethal Sukhoi-30MKIs flying in, talked of being equipped for a two-front war with China and Pakistan. A realistic assessment since then has made the marshals realise that such a doctrine would require at least 60 squadrons of ultra-modern war jets. That is about 1,200 fighter planes.

Ambitions have since been scaled down, for several reasons. As the flush of the Kargil win receded, the defence ministry was back to the same old lethargy in procurement. Purchase decisions got entangled in bureaucratic red-tape and ministerial caution against allegations of corruption. “The IAF is still awaiting the induction of the medium multi-role aircraft,” said Naik.

Then came the economic downturn, dashing any hope of a big jump in the budget for the services' capital purchases. Moreover, the Chinese began upping their air power and ground facilities in Tibet at such a fast pace that there was no way the IAF could match war jet for war jet. In just about a decade, China added more than 300 brand-new Russian Sukhoi-30MKKs and Sukhoi-27s, and homemade J-10 and J-17s.

As the 'ground' reality struck the Indian air staff, their operational doctrines became less ambitious. “The current operational directive from the office of the defence minister, issued in 2009, asks the armed forces to be war-ready on the Pakistan border, and prepare for holding operations along the China border,” a ministry official told THE WEEK. Simply put, it means adopt an offensive posture on the Pakistan front, and a defensive one against the Chinese.

But even such a modest war doctrine is now looking too ambitious. As Raha told the combined commanders' conference, he would need 45 squadrons to hold back the Chinese while waging a reasonably credible offensive against Pakistan; and he had just 34. “The situation is precarious,” pointed out retired air marshal A.K. Singh, former chief of the Delhi-based western air command that takes care of the entire theatre of operations against Pakistan. “If tomorrow we have to face the eventuality of both Pakistan and China putting pressure on us on the borders, we would be in a grave situation.”

The picture, thus, is one of progressively shrinking the operational ambitions with the dwindling size of the force. Recently, the IAF brass told Parliament's standing committee on defence headed by retired major-general B.C. Khanduri: “Our capability has already come down. Our capability vis-à-vis our neighbours is fast eroding.” The committee, in turn, ticked off the government for its “lack of futuristic planing”. The IAF's squadron strength “is just 34 against a sanctioned number of 42,” it pointed out. “We regret that a huge difference in sanctioned and existing number of squadrons was allowed at all. This could have been checked since the aircraft have a definite life span, and decommissioning can be well calculated.”

Alarmingly, in one of its reports, the committee put the actual operational squadron strength at a paltry 25, after discounting aircraft undergoing repair and refit at any given time. The estimate is that 35 to 40 per cent of the aircraft in a squadron can be expected to be in the maintenance or refit or upgrade hangar at any given time. This is so even with the brand-new Sukhois—nearly half of which are always in 'maintenance' hangars. Recently, the entire Sukhoi fleet was grounded for three weeks for inspection after the pilot and navigator seats ejected automatically while the aircraft was about to land in Pune.

Part of the blame, indeed, is on human error. Or that is what the makers of the plane would swear, as in the case of the Pune crash. The Russians say that two pilots had a cockpit quarrel in which the senior called the junior “good for nothing” and the latter, a rookie, lost his nerve. Minutes later, the two were thrown off with their seats! The IAF is still tight-lipped about what actually happened. Such 'criminal errors', however, are rare. Most human errors are those of judgment which can happen while flying at twice the speed of sound.

A more crippling problem is shortage of spares. Forget the old MiG-21s and MiG-27s which are no longer made anywhere in the world, even the Sukhois often face spares crunch. So much so that three or four Su-30MKIs have been turned into 'Christmas Trees' from which the engineers pluck spares. “These [new] aircraft are being cannibalised to meet the requirement of spares for the other aircraft in the Su-30 squadrons,” said an official at the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), which builds the aircraft under Russian licence. “But I won't blame the IAF. They are facing problems in getting spares from Russia.”

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, though new to his job, is aware of the shortage of aircraft. He recently asked the IAF and HAL to improve the availability of fighter jets. “If we improve the availability, the current squadrons are reasonably adequate,” he told THE WEEK. “It doesn't mean that we should not increase it. We have to have 42 squadrons, but equally important is that we should improve the availability of the present 35 squadrons.”

Parrikar claims that the IAF has improved aircraft availability by 10 per cent in the past six months. “If you improve the availability, 75 per cent of your problem is solved,” he said. “Sukhoi availability is also improving. Low availability is due to servicing issues and spares.” Agreed former HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi: “The availability of aircraft in the squadrons was 50 per cent earlier. But, with steps like creation of spares bank for the aircraft, we have brought it up to 60 per cent in the last few months.”

At present, in operational squadron strength, the IAF suffers a humiliating parity with the Pakistan Air Force, which, too, has 25 squadrons. And there is no comparison with China, which has an air force four times larger than the IAF. Indeed, PLAAF has several more frontiers to take care of, with 'enemies' Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan all around it. So no one expects China to deploy its entire airpower against India. All the same, considering that China views India as its primary and most powerful adversary, IAF doctrine-makers expect it to press a large part of its squadron strength into operations against India.

Most of the Chinese squadrons consist of modern Su-30MKKs, Su-27s, J-10s and J-16s which have been replacing their obsolete Chengdu J-7s. The Chinese have recently modernised their airfields in Kongka, Hoping, Lhasa and Pangta in Tibet. Sensing trouble, the Indian defence ministry permitted the IAF to move three wings of its deep-strike Sukhoi-30MKIs closer to the Chinese border—the 15 Wing to Bareilly, the 11 Wing to Tezpur and, more recently, the 14 Wing to Chabua.

Even the parity claimed with Pakistan pales when one considers the capabilities of the aircraft in the inventory. Most of Pakistan's 25 squadrons are getting modernised with the planned induction of around 45 F-16s from the US and more than 100 Chinese J-10s. “We still have an edge over the Pakistan Air Force but let me tell you, it is eroding very fast,” warned Naik, who used to claim, during his tenure as air chief five years ago, that the IAF was not a chunnu munnu (rag tag) force. “They are modernising fast, but not much has happened on our side.”

The bulk of India's 25 to 34 squadrons are of ageing MiG-21s, flying and fighting with the technologies of the 1970s vintage. “Fourteen of these 34 fighter squadrons are of MiG 21 and MiG 27s,” said an air marshal. “We ought to have pensioned them out long ago, and we will have to do that in the next five years.” Naik said, “At regular intervals, you need to add new aircraft to replace your 30-35 year-old MiG-21s. That has not happened in the last decade.”

The MiGs did have their day. When inducted, the MiG-21s were the only supersonic planes in south Asia. They played stellar roles in the 1971 war and have been guarding the Indian skies for close to half a century. However, the aircraft has become obsolete, and after the break-up of the Soviet Union spares also ran out. On the other hand, the Pakistan Air Force has been not only flying the more modern F-16s, but also upgrading them regularly.

Parliament's standing committee, too, has expressed its dismay over this. “This widening gap occurs because the rate at which fighter aircraft are retiring after completion of their total technical life exceeds the rate at which their replacements are being inducted into the IAF,” observed its report.

Though flying accidents on MiG-21s have been brought down, the reliability of the old planes continues to worry. “In a recent accident in Gujarat, the bomb on the wing of a MiG-21 exploded, resulting in a crash,” said an engineer in the Nagpur-based maintenance command. “The pilot landed safely but the incident has put question marks on the reliability of the old machines.”

The big questions is, what would replace them? To meet its requirement of 45 squadrons in the next 10-15 years, the IAF wants to have a mix of heavy-, medium- and light-weight aircraft, a few bought and the rest built. In fact, the Sukhoi-30MKIs are coming in numbers, but being heavy-duty, long-range weapons, they cannot be used for giving close air support to the Army. The operational philosophy demands that in case the enemy runs in with its huge tank fleet across the Punjab plains or the Rajasthan desert, the Army would seek help of the Air Force to bomb them out. “The Sukhois can hardly be used for such tactical roles,” pointed out a staff officer in the Air Headquarters.

Equipped with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, the Sukhoi, with refuelling, can fly for more than 10 hours at a stretch and hit anywhere on the Eurasian continent. But currently, quite a few of them are deployed in Jodhpur and a few other bases in Punjab and Haryana to take care of a few thousand square kilometres of Pakistani territory. That job ideally should have gone to the light and agile Tejas. But the aircraft is yet to get final operational clearance and enter squadron service.

Faced with a crippling shortage, the IAF is desperately reworking its tactical doctrines. In the recent Live Wire exercise, the force put all its assets to use to check if it could quickly switch its Sukhois from the eastern front to the Pakistani front. Such switching of roles is easier said than done. In such situations, the squadron pilots need to be trained in different tactical doctrines at the same time. “The way you wage a dogfight over the plains is different from the way you wage it over the mountains,” said an officer in the Bengaluru-based training command. “It is too taxing on a pilot to be training every day in such varying kinds of combat.”

Currently, for bulk of the operations on the western frontier, the IAF has the MiG-21s, which it wants to be replaced with the Tejas. The development programme of the Tejas has been running for three decades now. The builder, HAL, is waiting for the final clearance and is ready “to ramp up production capacity to 16 light combat aircraft a year, doubling the initial target of eight per year,” as former HAL chairman Tyagi said recently. Its Mark-2 version is expected to take another five years to enter squadron service.

In between the light and short-range Tejas and the heavy-duty, long-range Sukhois would come the Mirage-2000 (three squadrons), the Jaguar deep strike penetration aircraft (five squadrons) and the Russian MiG-29 (three squadrons). Of these, the Jaguars are of 1970s technology, and the Mirages and the MiG-29s of 1980s. Mid-life upgrades have given these aircraft another two decades of service life, but the IAF would like to have a robust fleet of medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) before these warhorses retire.

After prolonged and protracted scouting and negotiations, the IAF had zeroed in on the French Rafales. But the deal is still stuck in wrangles between the original maker Dassault and the intended licensed Indian manufacturer HAL. “The timely induction of 126 MMRCA in the IAF is of critical importance,” said Air Chief Marshal Raha in a recent interview.

In fact, a lot of futuristic planning is being done. The IAF has started talking about a fifth-generation (most of the world's most advanced aircraft in service today are fourth-gen) advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA). “The fifth-gen fighter is still on the drawing boards, and it should come out in 8-20 years,” said an IAF officer. “We are looking at a Russian design aircraft, to be jointly developed with DRDO [Defence Research and Development Organisation], which would be our answer to the American F-35 Lightning, F-22 Raptors and Chinese Chengdu J-20s.” These stealth aircraft would give the IAF the capability to enter enemy territory without 'troubling' the enemy radars, missile batteries and air defence guns.

The talks with the Russians over this are stuck on pricing and work share for India. The original idea was to get the aircraft developed jointly with Russia, which would cost $11 billion and take about nine years after the deal is signed. A quicker option, but less preferred because of the reduced Indian role, is to opt for the already existing Russian design, go for outright purchase of a few and subsequent licensed production in India. “If this option is exercised today, we will get the first aircraft by 2019-20,” said an officer.

The Khanduri committee had expressed concern over this. “We are constrained to observe that country's security requirements are being compromised by ignoring consistently widening gap between sanctioned and existing strengths,” observed its report. “We desire that concrete and prompt steps be initiated expeditiously to induct sufficient number of functional platform.”

But that is not happening. With no new procurement decisions taken, the IAF's plane purchase budget has been cut by Rs2,595 crore. “It would be difficult for the government to allocate more funds for new acquisitions for the IAF,” said defence industry analyst Deba R. Mohanty. “And it is not just fighter aircraft that have to be procured by the force; it also has to buy Apache and Chinook helicopters, additional mid-air refuelling aircraft, AWACS, aerostat radars and many more important things.”

Those, the marshals say, are another story.
WITH R. PRASANNAN

Fighters for the future

Su-30MKI: The Russian multi-role heavy aircraft is the biggest in the fighter jet category in the IAF. With plans to procure 272 Su-30MKIs (13 squadrons), the aircraft would be the mainstay of the force for 30 years.

Fifth generation fighter aircraft: To be procured from Russia, the fifth generation fighter aircraft would be India's answer to the American F-35 Lightning II and F-22 Raptor. The IAF is planning to buy 144 aircraft (seven squadrons) and induct them by 2019-20.

Medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA): For the past three years, negotiations have been going on with the French firm, Dassault Aviation, to procure aircraft for $20 billion ('mother of all deals'). If the deal comes through, the IAF would induct 126 MMRCA (six squadrons) by 2019-20.

Light combat aircraft Tejas: The home-grown aircraft is among the fighter jets that took the longest in the making and saw several cost and time over-runs. The LCA is in the final stages of development and 140 (seven squadrons) of them are expected to be inducted in the next two to three years.

Advanced medium combat aircraft: The AMCA is still on the drawing board and the Defence Research and Development Organisation plans to get sanction for it in the next few years. The AMCA may take 20 years to be developed fully and will replace Mirage 2000, Jaguar deep penetration strike aircraft and MiG-29s. And, for that, 200 AMCA (ten squadrons) would be required.

The fund crunch is going to be decisive.In an earlier post I suggested alternative options for the various requirements based upon costs.The DM should take a holistic view of the entire planned acquisitions of the IAF,work out "Plan B" whatever other options there are and "cut the IAF's coat according to the cloth". One mega-bucks deal like the Rafale will penalise other urgent requirements and lead to a lopsided service.

francophile · Post by **francophile** » 19 Mar 2015 08:48

su 30 were offered at usd35m in 2007 and today russians say the cost to produce the same plane in india is usd56m... 12 billions to 20 billions for rafale over the same period ....about 60% more both!!!where is the difference?
you can play with figures at ease, you can always demonstrate your point by showing the figures the way you want/need.
unfortunately people are most of the time inventing figures, taking them from a well defined context and use them in another. Most of the figures we can see, are so secret that I cannot imagine anyone on this blog being part of the secrecy.
it would nice to know who would be the winner between a chinese su30 and an indian one. ????
talking about 1 aircraft against another aircraft is non sense and it is why chinese, pakistani and in some ways US are afraid of the rafale deal with india, rafale would bring india to a all new level of warfare where we are managing a network of ressources (an operator in a Awacs or on the ground will be able to fire a missile located on rafale but not detected by this one....)I can see russian selling stealthy aircraft today and within a few year marketing india to buy radars able to detect the same aircrat being produced by HAL. future is digital ability and survivability
history always tells us how we can not rely on paper plans to hold delays (f35!!!!!)so good luck

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Mar 2015 10:33

su 30 were offered at usd35m in 2007 and today russians say the cost to produce the same plane in india is usd56m... 12 billions to 20 billions for rafale over the same period ....about 60% more both!!!where is the difference?

In something called a RFP and L1, which is where the Rafale is tied to.

The Su is not tied to anything. They could inflate the price to anything they please and as long as India *wants* it the game is fair.

For the Rafale, L1 is the cost agreed to. Anything more may be just short of a crime.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Mar 2015 11:32

they will run after barring the most obvious - the Tejas, which can make up the bottom 50% of the force and build numbers.

one day bmw 7, next day audi Q7, why not a Merc too..... 45 sqdns will never happen unless 300 Tejas are inducted including 150 Mk1.
Mk1 can take over A2G role once the Mk2 starts coming online to take over A2A role.

a 45 sqdn imported AF is just laughable...even if they rob all the beggars on the streets of india, after robbing our pockets none can afford the bill and opex.

sure keep blaming and beating up the Tejas mk1 for not being a rafale and not being a EF, just like the arjun...quite the way to win a war.

we have 200 Mig27 and Jag airframes and 100 Mig21Bison which will need retirement by 2025 latest and IAF discussing black forest cake vs truffle mousse rather than roti and chana daal.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2015 12:25

I was writing about non availability of funds for Rafale for a long long time. But with due respect to other gurus, we are only looking at the Rafale from its capabilities etc. We are not looking at it from our financial capability to purchase it. We simply do not have it. Even if we purchase it will getting money from god only knows where, we will seriously diminish our capacity to fund other activities including our 5th Gen acquisitions/development ambitions. Is it in the interest of national security? I am sure it is not.

The problem we have here in BR is that many of us think security means only weapons, mil capability etc and not economic capability, political capability and most importantly the nature of our people and civilization. Though not visible like armed forces, but they all do play important role in securing the nation.

Many times it was posted here that we have to accept the call of IAF and can not question their demand of Rafale. While IAF is the only and proper institution to select the weapon system bust suited for the nation, the G.O.I. and the political leadership always have a duty to say no if there is no money to buy it or if there are other priorities of the nation. I feel we are not going to get Rafale or anything else of that kind now. French are not going to reduce the price and there is simply no money for such costly items.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 19 Mar 2015 12:47

problem is everyone sees a business opportunity in the near term from Tejas MK.1 , 1+ and 2 in long term, except HAL. It is not ready for incremental orders rather it will up the production cycle only if it has bulk orders. Forget IAF, it is HAL which needs to show confidence on its product. Incremental upgrades on top of MK.1 FOC baseline and incremental orders will definitely follow. IAF went for Akash isn't it and now wants to increase order. HAL not ready to give an inch but want IAF to give more than a yard and that too from a PSU. Strange

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2015 13:25

Dhiraj sir, How does HAL show the confidence in their own product if IAF do not show any confidence in it. If H.A.L. can not sell it to I.A.F. can it sell it to anyone else. Further Arms sales are mostly done with serious political support and as a part of strategic relationship. Do we have such thing with anyone??? Which nation with money bye anything from us (am not talking about present but recent past under U.P.A.)

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 19 Mar 2015 13:37

^^^^^^
Sir ji, my quote was specific to Tejas and nothing to do with Rafale (though in the wrong thread). India buys Rafale or not, it is exclusive to the need for Tejas. My request to HAL was bring on the MK.1 ASAP, incremental 1+ and Mk.2 to follow. Once IAF starts flying them and backed by a support leading to high availability rate and decent performance, IAF will be more than comfortable to up the numbers.
The current government will be more than happy to see make in India success in the aviation front (exports etc comes up later, but no one is complaining)

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 19 Mar 2015 14:18

+108. Need to have LCA mk1 and 2 asap. Cheap, local and will provide numbers needed. There is nothing in Pakiland which can be called as greatly or decisively superior to LCA. I do not feel well IAF to brass now making big noises about Rafale ( positive) and LCA (negative). It will only make French confident. Of course in all probability these reports may be planted.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Mar 2015 10:59

In recent times the IAF have been making more positive soundbites on the LCA,but their still remain some issues on Mk-1 and intensive tweaking within specified timeframes by HAL is required. The MOD should have a special taskforce as is being done with the JSF in the US to get the aircraft functioning in the air as intended and rolling off production lines in large numbers. As many have been saying on this td.,the LCA is the cheapest option for the IAF to beef up its sqds to 40+ and even more sqds in the future,to deal with a two-front war.Around 300+ MKIs-all upgraded,300+ assorted medium/light sized aircraft (MIG-29UGs,M-2000UGs,JaguarUGs,Bisons) 200LCAs and whatever FGFAs arrive by 2020-2025,may give us about 800-900 combat aircraft.But this also requires the LCA to be built at the rate of 16-20/yr. The GOI should immediately start planning/building the infrastructure for this even if it means converting an existing facility for the same or building a new production line,whatever happens to the MMRCA deal.

Having spent 3+ decades on the programme,with so much of time,money and effort involved,with depleted coffers,surely after so many years of the aircraft flying in the sky.testing,etc.,at least 80+ Mk-1s cannot be built asap?

DexterM · Post by **DexterM** » 20 Mar 2015 14:34

Philip, you seem to like playing possum about the specific platform you mentioned. Are you not aware that MOD has instructed HAL to proceed with the line expansion?

What does this three decade BS of yours have to do with the productionizing?
Who builds the supply chain for the latest LRUs without any investment or orders?
You don't get called out enough by the Mods for this continuous Kerjriwalish bleating.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 20 Mar 2015 19:17

Karan M wrote:Ramana, mostly French owned (eg includes Safran subsidiaries in Belgium f.e.) but a fair amount of EU stuff and US gear too (Moog actuators, just like with the LCA)

So what does this 'fair amount of ...US gear too (Moog actuators, just like with the LCA)' mean from a sanctions perspective?

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 20 Mar 2015 19:19

From memory didn't all western fighters in the MRCA competition have Moog Actuators?

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 20 Mar 2015 19:23

Actually when using Moog, I prefer Emerson, Lake and Palmer or Wendy Carlos.

E. Power Biggs for the real hard corps stuff.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 20 Mar 2015 19:59

TSJones wrote:Actually when using Moog, I prefer Emerson, Lake and Palmer or Wendy Carlos.

E. Power Biggs for the real hard corps stuff.

Excellent synthesis.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Mar 2015 15:57

Dex,how many MK-1s have been ordered thus far? There seems to be a pause in statements until the MMRCA deal decision is made.

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 21 Mar 2015 20:46

The only way India can offset dwindling fleet strength is not merely by numbers, but by making sure whatever we induct is of super high quality. The Rafale must arrive in the IAF regardless of more lca or sukhoi, because it is ( and will remain in the foreseeable future) one of the best birds in the business far far superior than anything the TSP or their eternal friends can field in near or mid-term. I hope the deal closes in a month and we work out some mechanism to form a seed squadron ASAP, probably by sourcing some jets already in use by the french air force.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Mar 2015 11:20

In a deal signed a few years ago,even before the MMRCA decision was made,the first 2 M-2K upgrades are arriving only now.It is going to take several years before HAL can upgrade the rest of the 40 M-2Ks,at an astronomical cost of $2.4B,when the cost of the entire MIG-29UG was less than $900M,with many of those upgraded aircraft already delivered,including local production for 120+ engines,which can be further easily retrofitted with TVC nozzles.

What cost the Rafale deal is eventually going to cost is unknown.Just because the aircraft is a good one does not mean that we must buy it at whatever pricetag comes with it.One BR report from the media has it that the deal for 120+ 4th-gen aircraft is "$20B",while the deal for approx. 140+ 5th-gen FGFAs is "$25B". The latest report that HAL's LCA production must be ramped up to "16/yr" by the GOI/MOD,with hints that more MK-1s (with improvements) are to be ordered indicate a welcome trend,,and perhaps to put further pressure upon the French to relent upon the price or find the deal dumped.

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Mar 2015 12:06

An interesting titbit from an F18 pilot ... " The first time I went supersonic was by accident and I only noticed because the Mach meter said "1.0". It was, coincidentally, my first flight in the F/A-18. It was the two-seater version and I didn't think it was supposed to be able to do that sans afterburner. " So much for super cruise

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Mar 2015 12:11

nowadays take the marketing and brochures with a pint of salt ..only hands on evaluation can tell you what a product can do .. i think the MRCA evaluations were well done .. it was not about finding the cheapest but the best one for India .MOD knows it , IAF said so , BRF ites going all around

.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Mar 2015 17:32

kit wrote:An interesting titbit from an F18 pilot ... " The first time I went supersonic was by accident and I only noticed because the Mach meter said "1.0". It was, coincidentally, my first flight in the F/A-18. It was the two-seater version and I didn't think it was supposed to be able to do that sans afterburner. " So much for super cruise

The genesis of super cruise in the "5th" generation concept was because there was a need felt to increase the supersonic radius of fighter aircraft considerably as one developed advanced aircraft that replaced the legacy 4th generation systems. The requirement was to go out and have tactically relevant supersonic ranges with enough fuel and weapons onboard to be make a tactical difference. A bare bone F-18, F-16 or F-15 can probably under the right conditions (perhaps a dive) do close to mach 1 dry (maybe little beyond) given the fuel state (lightly loaded) but that is hardly tactically relevant or useful. For the ATF for example the requirement was Mach 1.5 at altitude with full internal weapons (8 missiles) and fuel. At that profile the F-22 outranges an F-15C on internal fuel and can still manage a mach 1.72 super cruise. The F-22 can also go supersonic in dry thrust at sea level - lets see an F/A-18 do that