Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 10 Apr 2015 22:14

I hope what this really is an order of 36 off-the-shelf if and only if the negotiations for 108 Make-In-India pan out.
So give the French an instant sweetener in return for more favorable terms for the bigger deal.

Both deals have to be tied together, anything else just doesn't make sense.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 10 Apr 2015 22:15

This is dissapointing. Why just 36

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 10 Apr 2015 22:17

skekatpuray wrote:This is dissapointing. Why just 36

Did Modi say it is JUST 36? DON'T speculate. None of officials is saying it is JUST 36.

-Ankit

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 10 Apr 2015 22:19

The 36 Rafale jets in fly-away condition. That is what they are saying which is very very different than JUST 36.

-Ankit

member_26535 · Post by **member_26535** » 10 Apr 2015 22:21

NDTv ( Vishnu Som ) says, the original 18 is now 36 and an additional 108 will be made in India. So the number of jets have up from 126.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Apr 2015 22:22

Total 144 as per Vishnu , 108 built in India , 36 outright purchase

Viva Rafale..

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 10 Apr 2015 22:22

srikven wrote:NDTv ( Vishnu Som ) says, the original 18 is now 36 and an additional 108 will be made in India. So the number of jets have up from 126.

EXACTLY. Thanks srikven.

-Ankit

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Apr 2015 22:23

The 'higher order' being referred to is probably the Jaitapur Areva deal. It's not just any nuclear deal. The Jaitapur NPP would be the world's largest single nuclear power installation, costing $18 billion, and generating almost 10,000MW , or just under half of the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, and much larger than the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Japan, which has a capacity of 7,900MW. That single plant installation in Japan has a larger capacity than all of our current operational reactors combined. The energy generation will be quite high compared to a hydro project because of relative capacity utilization ability; ~50% for a dam and 90% for a nuclear plant.

If the French played hardball with the Areva involvement, I can see Modi choosing to buy a token number of Rafales to seal the Jaitapur deal. It matters a lot more to him than the Rafales.

member_26535 · Post by **member_26535** » 10 Apr 2015 22:25

If this is true. Then this achieves the following ( speculation anyways )

1) Satisfy imm operational needs of IAF partially
2) Some additional sops for making the french bend on the terms of contract ( Ownership for HAL delays as an example )
3) Getting a better price with a larger order
4) Some additional QPQ - maybe Jaitarpur

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Apr 2015 22:26

Suraj wrote: If the French played hardball with the Areva involvement, I can see Modi choosing to buy a token number of Rafales to seal the Jaitapur deal. It matters a lot more to him than the Rafales.

But then it will be 36 only and not 36+108 as Vishnu Som is now reporting. He's a member. maybe he'll post here and we can get clarification.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Apr 2015 22:27

Suraj wrote:If the French played hardball with the Areva involvement, I can see Modi choosing to buy a token number of Rafales to seal the Jaitapur deal. It matters a lot more to him than the Rafales.

But why is the Areva deal so important? It is supposed to cost Rs. 9-10 per unit perhaps reduced to some extent by localizing component.

Apart from non-conventional energy advantage why else does it matter so much? Are the French going to allow us to reprocess Pu for weapons?

member_27845 · Post by **member_27845** » 10 Apr 2015 22:28

srin wrote:Much as I hate to say it, this may be a good hedge. The Rafale deal had blocked all of the IAF's acquisitions (apache, chinook, MRTT, etc). And I think GoI knows that there is no way the MMRCA would go further. And probably the IAF put its foot down on increased LCA orders till it meets FOC.

By going for 36 airplanes, they have kicked the bigger MMRCA negotiation to the future - hopefully to be finally buried. They have also opened the tap and freed the budget for other acquisitions. The IAF also will be silenced - GoI will claim to have done this to arrest the falling squadron numbers. Only entity that would be p*ssed off would be HAL, but they will be promised additional LCA orders.

Only way I can make sense out this.

Our AF is like a spoilt brat - who wont have his roti/dal unless he gets his French cheese first
And poor mommy has to buy him out

A good deal would make sense straight away. The fact that we are forced to come up with convoluted explanations just means it is a bad deal.

NaMo keeps talking about transparency and policy based decisions as a way to eliminate corruption. He should have made the case for this deal BEFORE making the announcement in Paris.

This sets a bad precedent.

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 10 Apr 2015 22:30

This is the surest indication of how much of a thin ice we are on in terms of operational readiness. I think this deal makes everyone happy - the french get fat money, the IAF gets a superb plane quickly and the government gets wriggle room on FGFA negotiations. The LCA orders (and prod rate) now needs to be boosted domestically - its export potential is already in doubt since we are tomtomming the mk2 before the mk1 has even reached FOC

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Apr 2015 22:33

pankajs wrote:Apart from non-conventional energy advantage why else does it matter so much? Are the French going to allow us to reprocess Pu for weapons?

"Apart from the non-conventional energy advantage" sounds quite silly. It's all about the huge addition to base load capacity. 10GW can drive a lot of economic activity. All of TSP's current installed capacity online is 12-13GW. That is not a typo. Jaitapur + Kudankulam would have greater installed capacity online than all of TSP.

Back to the deal, what is new about what's been agreed upon ? Wasn't the original plan always about ~18 in flyaway condition and rest 108 in India ? All that's changed now is 36 in flyaway condition and 108 in India.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 10 Apr 2015 22:35

VijayR wrote:
srin wrote:Much as I hate to say it, this may be a good hedge. The Rafale deal had blocked all of the IAF's acquisitions (apache, chinook, MRTT, etc). And I think GoI knows that there is no way the MMRCA would go further. And probably the IAF put its foot down on increased LCA orders till it meets FOC.

By going for 36 airplanes, they have kicked the bigger MMRCA negotiation to the future - hopefully to be finally buried. They have also opened the tap and freed the budget for other acquisitions. The IAF also will be silenced - GoI will claim to have done this to arrest the falling squadron numbers. Only entity that would be p*ssed off would be HAL, but they will be promised additional LCA orders.

Only way I can make sense out this.
Our AF is like a spoilt brat - who wont have his roti/dal unless he gets his French cheese first
And poor mommy has to buy him out

...

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 10 Apr 2015 22:35

Only 36 doesn't make sense. In the case of only 36 better to scrap the deal than go for only 2 squadrons. After going through close to a decade of test and negotiation I doubt if they cancel it. And reducing number to make it less will bring objections from other vendors too that they might have quoted less. I even doubt if total number is 144. I still think it is 126 with only difference is 36 fly-away condition instead 18 unless there is a provision in contract to increase total number or fly-away number. I still think making number fly-away conditioned of jets to 36 will also bring some objections from other vendors.

-Ankit

nash · Post by **nash** » 10 Apr 2015 22:36

I would say IMO, it is kind of progressive act and so far haven't seen no info on amount of money.

Rest of the deal and other deal will depend on availability of funds and economic condition. Also, on how quickly HAL ramp up its production and quality standards for rafale and LCA.

Even, NaMo can say to IAF that now you have got your shiny toys so, its time to increase the order of MkI.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 10 Apr 2015 22:37

India's Rafale jet deal separate from talks on bigger order.

India's purchase of 36 French-made Rafale jets unveiled on Friday is not part of a larger order still being negotiated between the two countries, a French defence ministry source said.

The purchase of the Dassault Aviation planes, announced by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a visit to Paris, remains "separate from the tender under discussion for three years," the source said.

The value of the larger 126-plance deal being negotiated is estimated to have grown to about US$20 billion from an initial US$12 billion, primarily because of an Indian requirement that 108 of the jets be built in the country.

parshuram · Post by **parshuram** » 10 Apr 2015 22:37

Chindits claim no Deal signed, only intrest expressed

What is that suppose tommean

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Apr 2015 22:40

Actually that is true if you read the company presser

It is still "Intention to finalize"

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 10 Apr 2015 22:43

speedybuys of Rafale by India and Egypt will open up more markets in south american, asian nations giving more breather for India and France to negotiate for additional make in india Rafales.
Modi govt. has taken good decision to buy 36 off the shelf Rafales, they will arrive by 3-4 years and if economy really picks up with in couple of years we are looking for around 200 latest Made in India tranches in future.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Apr 2015 22:45

Ok, so they didn't agree to a deal. They agreed to agree to agree to a deal. Sounds fine.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Apr 2015 22:49

Well,those negotiations for "make in India" Rafales may drag on endlessly.The facts are that just 36 are being bought right now,something one speculated about in another td. The "offset" clause could be fudged as a media report says that France is to invest "$2B" in India.

So France will now ship out 2 sqds of perhaps existing fighters from its stock asap,in similar fashion to the Jaguar deal aeons ago,repeated with the SU-30s we first acquired which were returned to Russia later on after MKIs were available. The moot point still remains as to how the IAF is going to replace the hundreds of MIG-21s and MIG-27s which are going to be pensioned off,not to mention the holy grail of 40+ sqds?

The Russians will be kept happy with the aforementioned decision to upgrade all 270+ MKIs,perhaps a couple more sqds. of MKIs added and we will have to wait for news about the FGFA. If the GOI intends to buy extra LCAs,it would've been better to have announced it before the PM's visit to France for extra leverage on the price.

The BJP now have two "loose cannons" to deal with,Gen.VKS and now "SS general" Swamy!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Apr 2015 22:53

In an age where ppl expect weekly android updates, two monthly sw releases and agile perhaps game has changed and none want to commit to bulk orders.

Perhaps future is blocks of 18-36 of any plane we get.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Apr 2015 22:58

I feel with India agreeing to buy 36 Rafale outright , it would give Dassault some breathing space for give and take on Rafale TOT knowing well it has got the MMRCA order ...more like they can negotiate from a relaxed frame of mind and give and take to get 108 local

even the MKI deal started with 40 Outright purchase and later it was built upon.....so there is precedent

member_28526 · Post by **member_28526** » 10 Apr 2015 23:00

Not just Jaitapur. Could the nuclear deal include a more powerful reactor for the SSN and follow on SSBN. Even for INS Vishal?

srin · Post by **srin** » 10 Apr 2015 23:02

I expect more MKI orders as soon as the PM returns home. I also expect HAL being asked to double LCA capacity. I also expect Chinook and MRTT deals to be signed. And finally, I think it is curtains on the MMRCA deal.

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Apr 2015 23:08

hope they do have some logic in a 36 plane deal for a country like india ! ..or is ostensibly something like the Su 35 deal by russia with china ?!! ..but we are poor indians no copycats

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 10 Apr 2015 23:10

srin wrote:I expect more MKI orders as soon as the PM returns home. I also expect HAL being asked to double LCA capacity. I also expect Chinook and MRTT deals to be signed. And finally, I think it is curtains on the MMRCA deal.

Chinook and Apache deals have been extended so do not expect them to be signed for a while yet.

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Apr 2015 23:14

IAF s holy grail of 40 plus squadrons will happen only if they order desi planes ..otherwise they will be a military have a few squadrons of BMWs to break down an armada of chinese maruti s

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 10 Apr 2015 23:19

Austin wrote:I feel with India agreeing to buy 36 Rafale outright , it would give Dassault some breathing space for give and take on Rafale TOT knowing well it has got the MMRCA order ...more like they can negotiate from a relaxed frame of mind and give and take to get 108 local

What about our existing history with Dassault makes you grant them such a generous view? If anything with India 'locked-in' Dassault will be even more mercenary when it comes subsequent negotiations since the support for these early order Rafales will delivered through the main contract. India will have no options and the French will extract every cent that they can.

member_28539 · Post by **member_28539** » 10 Apr 2015 23:28

Austin wrote:I feel with India agreeing to buy 36 Rafale outright , it would give Dassault some breathing space for give and take on Rafale TOT knowing well it has got the MMRCA order ...more like they can negotiate from a relaxed frame of mind and give and take to get 108 local

even the MKI deal started with 40 Outright purchase and later it was built upon.....so there is precedent

Exactly understood sir!..i have dealt with French...they get a bit jittery during initial negotiations but ease out after a confirmation (Ex-boss was french

)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Apr 2015 23:28

IF "rapid" means transfer of Rafale from the French AF ............................. I am ALL for it.

The other thing I really LOVE is that this is a "strategic" buy.

There is more to this story than just mere Rafale. The plane itself is a small timer - imp to the IAF tho'.

I like this. Always need to figure out how to kill more birds with one stone.

member_28911 · Post by **member_28911** » 10 Apr 2015 23:49

NRao wrote:
The other thing I really LOVE is that this is a "strategic" buy.

There is more to this story than just mere Rafale. The plane itself is a small timer - imp to the IAF tho'.

So there's a chance that this purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets is for SFC

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 10 Apr 2015 23:49

srikven wrote: 2) Some additional sops for making the french bend on the terms of contract ( Ownership for HAL delays as an example )
3) Getting a better price with a larger order

This actually reduces your leverage and makes it harder to get concessions/lower prices on future contracts.

If you were going to scrap MRCA and just buy off the shelf, I could understand that. But 36 is too small a number to be relevant.

If you were still committed to local production, then you absolutely cannot order anything until all the details are worked out, otherwise you lose all leverage.

This is like the middle of the road solution that's the worst of both worlds.

The only way this makes sense to me is if the contract includes firm options to purchase more and they want to piecemeal the order instead of buying them all in one chunk.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 Apr 2015 23:51

Looks like this was a deal developed to make PMs visit to France meaningful. Otherwise don't see any reason why 36 odd planes have to be procured OTS when a larger 108 a/c deal is already hanging fire for being too expensive.
But they have only agreed to agree...wonder if any formal purchase has actually occurred!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 Apr 2015 23:54

ravip wrote:Don't drag IAF into this, if govt doesn't want to buy, no one can force them.

Oh please..IAF has been hollering itself hoarse for the Rafale.. and only the Rafale, time & again releasing statements to the effect that nothing else would do.

It is not a child's game to spend billions of dollars for next several decades. If the govt wants do some bravado photo op by announcing the unthinkable to exercise the follow on clause even before the main agreement is signed, then it is the modi led govt at fault and no one else..

Actually, its a collective failure of the system & the IAF is definitely part & parcel of it. But there are other players with far more culpability. As much as you'd like to blame Modi for it, its your favorite INC which created the mess in the first place with such a poorly drawn up tender process that even excluded the EF team once the Dassault team was chosen. Pretty much a fait accompli for the current Govt. until & unless they go against the choice of the AF and force other options on them, which a nationalist Govt elected on that plank will be loath to do.

Never mind the concerns about whether the INC dipped their hands in the till and which is why Dassault has so much info on both the IAF situation and why it was so obdurate, and the deal had loopholes, which is another issue by itself.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 10 Apr 2015 23:57

kit wrote:IAF s holy grail of 40 plus squadrons will happen only if they order desi planes ..otherwise they will be a military have a few squadrons of BMWs to break down an armada of chinese maruti s

Well said.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Apr 2015 23:58

Ankar wrote:
NRao wrote:
The other thing I really LOVE is that this is a "strategic" buy.

There is more to this story than just mere Rafale. The plane itself is a small timer - imp to the IAF tho'.
So there's a chance that this purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets is for SFC

Nope.

This is a purchase to bail out Dassault.

"Strategic"

Will · Post by **Will** » 11 Apr 2015 00:00

kaizanin wrote:Not just Jaitapur. Could the nuclear deal include a more powerful reactor for the SSN and follow on SSBN. Even for INS Vishal?

There have been rumors floating around since long that the SSNs will be based on a French design/be built with French help. Wishful thinking?