Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 11 Apr 2015 09:46

Rafale will remain mainstay of French Air Force till 2040 not the same case with IAF though, I don't know how much 36 buys will put India into disadvantageous position but if I was French dassault or FAF with almost nil growth economy I would like a partner like India for sure to get things moving on Rafale front.
Also 36 Rafales will be in India by end of 2018, India even if dump make in India plans for Rafale will get 36 top of the line strike fighters enough to handle PAF and freeing up Sukhois for chinese front.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 11 Apr 2015 09:48

Dassault got huge image boost, probably unassailable for any 4th Gen fighter jet, when IAF stamped on Rafale as winner of MMRCA competition. I don't think that Rafale will be unhappy by any chance.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Apr 2015 09:52

Haha, EF isn't making a comeback.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 09:57

shiv wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.
While I am an ardent MiG 21 fan and an admirer of Su 30 - Russian technology simply has not catapulted India into the western league in terms of serviceability and reliability. The Su 30s 60% availability rate does not compare well with the Mirage 2000's 90% availability.

Shiv, the Mirages availability has also been suffering like the Su-30s.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... groundings

Although a $2.2 billion upgrade of India’s Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters is progressing, around a quarter of the fleet of 49 is grounded because a contract for spares has remained unsigned for years, AIN has learned from sources involved in the program.

“Bureaucratic holdups have caused delays. As a result, parts are being cannibalized and there are some aircraft [inactive] since 2010. Life of some parts, especially avionics, is expiring,” said an engineer not willing to be identified. Repairs of the Mirages are carried out at the base repair depot in Gwalior in the central state of Madhya Pradesh. The depot also does material planning and storage of primarily third- and fourth-line spares. The Indian Air Force declined to comment.

75% and bureaucratic holdups etc. The Armed Forces in the previous decade have suffered significant funding issues. Batteries for subs. WWR reductions and so forth. I think if we really dig down into it, the stuff about Su-30 may also have been around price. Per se, it was not Russian design philosophy but their playing hardball on prices and delaying things. And in turn which led to the Rafale as AF clearly didn't want to be stuck only on Russia's coat tails. Which then tells us that its not really going to be different from France either...so the discussion continues.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:07

Singha wrote:I have a spider feel the availability % of our bison and mig27 holding has fallen below 40% and OEM spares very hard to get as ruaf does not use them anymore. Thats 200 airframes limping along on one leg.

The jag upg for all airframes seem to be on plus we made 39 new on emergency basis.

The mig29 fortunately is still in relative use around the world....

Singha, the Bison & MiG-27 availability is helped by the fact that both were made in India. The MiG-21 availability will be 70%, the MiG-27s around 60% and the latter are definitely on the way out thanks to issues with the engines.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:10

rohitvats wrote:The 2 x Rafale Squadrons seem to have been contracted to arrest the squadron decline in 2015-2020 period.

You'll have 4 x Mig-21 M/MF, 3 x Mig-27ML and 1 x Mig-21 Bis on their way out and 4 x Su-30MKI, 2 x Tejas Mk1 and now, 2 x Rafale coming into the service. This should balance out the immediate requirement. And this immediate requirement is what is driving the Government decision.

Now, the question is what happens after 2020 in the 2020-25 when 2 x Tejas Mk2 (number produced by 2025), 4 x Rafale and hopefully, 1 x FGFA were expected to come in for 6 x Mig-21 Bison and 2 x Mig-27 UPG squadrons being phased out.

What can happen is more numbers of Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 being ordered to make up for sheer numbers w/o getting into qualitative aspect. The IAF was relying on Rafale to make up the 42 squadron number target by 2025-27 period.

Well that's why I think Hawk/Pilatus style IAF will ask for more Rafales (only difference no local assembly).

prat.patel · Post by **prat.patel** » 11 Apr 2015 10:11

rohitvats wrote:The 2 x Rafale Squadrons seem to have been contracted to arrest the squadron decline in 2015-2020 period.

You'll have 4 x Mig-21 M/MF, 3 x Mig-27ML and 1 x Mig-21 Bis on their way out and 4 x Su-30MKI, 2 x Tejas Mk1 and now, 2 x Rafale coming into the service. This should balance out the immediate requirement. And this immediate requirement is what is driving the Government decision.

Now, the question is what happens after 2020 in the 2020-25 when 2 x Tejas Mk2 (number produced by 2025), 4 x Rafale and hopefully, 1 x FGFA were expected to come in for 6 x Mig-21 Bison and 2 x Mig-27 UPG squadrons being phased out.

What can happen is more numbers of Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 being ordered to make up for sheer numbers w/o getting into qualitative aspect. The IAF was relying on Rafale to make up the 42 squadron number target by 2025-27 period.

I think the above does seem like the most tactical reasoning behind this decision.
Does this decision has any strategic thought process (apart from the political leverage/implications/considerations/or whatever we want to call it)? The answer is most likely "No".
This seems to be a purely tactical decision to arrest the squadron numbers by leveraging upon a selection process already completed.
If at all there might have been strategic thought - it would then just have been to get this sore thumb out of the way in scheme of the overall Indo-French collaboration - which is what the purpose of this visit is by Indian PM.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:15

indranilroy wrote:Hakim,

I won't take any sides with any of the journos, their morals, their economics, etc. Just tell me how is this not true? If it is true, how can we circumvent this situation?

If India contracts for 36 Rafale fighters, Dassault will be in a commanding position to negotiate favourable terms for the remaining 90 fighters. If India does not agree to Dassault’s terms, it would be left with two squadrons of Rafales, with no indigenization.

This is the unfortunate truth. What this means is (perhaps) behind the scenes, the Rafale is a done deal but they are going to rework the whole thing for 108 aircraft but taking more time. Who knows!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:18

prat.patel wrote:
rohitvats wrote:The 2 x Rafale Squadrons seem to have been contracted to arrest the squadron decline in 2015-2020 period.

You'll have 4 x Mig-21 M/MF, 3 x Mig-27ML and 1 x Mig-21 Bis on their way out and 4 x Su-30MKI, 2 x Tejas Mk1 and now, 2 x Rafale coming into the service. This should balance out the immediate requirement. And this immediate requirement is what is driving the Government decision.

Now, the question is what happens after 2020 in the 2020-25 when 2 x Tejas Mk2 (number produced by 2025), 4 x Rafale and hopefully, 1 x FGFA were expected to come in for 6 x Mig-21 Bison and 2 x Mig-27 UPG squadrons being phased out.

What can happen is more numbers of Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 being ordered to make up for sheer numbers w/o getting into qualitative aspect. The IAF was relying on Rafale to make up the 42 squadron number target by 2025-27 period.
I think the above does seem like the most tactical reasoning behind this decision.
Does this decision has any strategic thought process (apart from the political leverage/implications/considerations/or whatever we want to call it)? The answer is most likely "No".
This seems to be a purely tactical decision to arrest the squadron numbers by leveraging upon a selection process already completed.
If at all there might have been strategic thought - it would then just have been to get this sore thumb out of the way in scheme of the overall Indo-French collaboration - which is what the purpose of this visit is by Indian PM.

There is one more aspect which also supports Rohits point.

Current GOI seems to be very serious about adding back combat capability to forces. Perhaps they dont want to be caught out without options next time there is something that goes awry.

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/ind ... tells-modi

He began by taking stock of the force's status & the IAF would have flagged the issue pretty hard.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 11 Apr 2015 10:19

From my 2015 predictions list...

India will close on the Rafale contract and we will see the first set of Rafales in IAF colors

prat.patel · Post by **prat.patel** » 11 Apr 2015 10:22

If India contracts for 36 Rafale fighters, Dassault will be in a commanding position to negotiate favourable terms for the remaining 90 fighters. If India does not agree to Dassault’s terms, it would be left with two squadrons of Rafales, with no indigenization.

[/quote]

This is the unfortunate truth. What this means is (perhaps) behind the scenes, the Rafale is a done deal but they are going to rework the whole thing for 108 aircraft but taking more time. Who knows![/quote]

Yes; the above is very much a possibility.
But there is a equal chance that the case is actually exact opposite.
PMO/FM to MOD/IAF -
Here; your immediate concern of squadron strength is somewhat addressed for next 5 years.
Now; work out a financially viable plan for 2020 forward. Does that plan include the original MMRCA or not - its up to you.

We mango people will never know the truth; we can only speculate the possibilities and on that front both of the above have 50-50 chance of being true.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 11 Apr 2015 10:22

~~Only thing now left to do is to shove down huge volume of LCAs down IAF's throat! Only then, this deal would make sense.~~

[MODERATOR NOTE: Your right to criticize armed forces or make a point does not require use of language as above. Let it be absolutely clear that such nonsensical language will NOT be tolerated. I'm letting this one stand as example of what NOT TO write. Next one found indulging in such nonsense will receive a summary ban - rohitvats.

prat.patel · Post by **prat.patel** » 11 Apr 2015 10:24

Deleted by Moderator - rohitvats

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:33

Rakesh wrote:
Vipul wrote:What was the configuration that IAF tested?
I believe it was the F2 variant, as the F3 variant was still on the drawing board in 2007. Someone please point out if I am wrong.

The agreement basically says whatever we would have procured per the MMRCA. Nobody knows exactly what that standard is, but general perception is F3 variant with AESA.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 11 Apr 2015 10:38

MODERATOR NOTE: To each one of you, keep the language and debate civil. This is a military thread and unless absolutely necessary, there will be NO political discussion. Especially not of the variety where you harangue about your pet peeves. Secondly, each one of you will mind your language when it comes the Services. Your right to criticize the Services does not translate into a free pass for potty mouthed comments or loose language. This is an absolute red-line. Posters found deviating from the said guideline will be summarily banned - rohitvats.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:49

http://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documen ... l_911_2015

14. Government of India conveyed to the Government of France that in view of the critical operational necessity for Multirole Combat Aircraft for Indian Air Force, Government of India would like to acquire [36] Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible. The two leaders agreed to conclude an Inter-Governmental Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway;[/color] the delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF; and that the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France.

So 36 possible, have to be cheaper than rates for 126 MMRCA, will be per IAF MMRCA reqs (tested and approved - focus on approved, thats MMRCA std).

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 10:51

In short MMRCA circus continues... this thread will last into 2025.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 11 Apr 2015 10:57

Modi has diplomatically told France that 126 deal is dead and we might buy 36 if you give us great deal & strategic concessions

karan_mc · Post by **karan_mc** » 11 Apr 2015 11:06

Modi is visiting Germany next , Hope they do not protest . off the shelf EF might be Cheaper

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Apr 2015 11:10

So 36 possible, have to be cheaper than rates for 126 MMRCA, will be per IAF MMRCA reqs (tested and approved - focus on approved, thats MMRCA std)

TOI is saying the deal for 36 is around 4 Billion USD, but I haven't come across any weapons package information and suspect there may be a comprehensive order of weapons (separate to the main aircraft contract) as the deal matures.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 884650.cms

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 11:11

^ The French are putting it @ 4 billion euros sans weapons. My guess is about $ 5.5 billion for the whole thing - more or less.

Nothing will happen with EF2000 imho - this is a Segway into more LCA Mk1s. Modi will be remembered for this and jingos will be eternally grateful - 'nuff said!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Apr 2015 11:20

One mango suspicion. Rafale may be used for Strategic purpose without anyone speaking about it. It may release other ACs used ( M2k?) for that purpose. Possible. If we are using AC's deliver Nukes, Rafale is a way better bet than M2K. Only 36 units may be suggest that. Further as other gurus financial commitments can not be made as of now for 126 so a middle path may be this.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 11:30

rohitvats wrote:The 2 x Rafale Squadrons seem to have been contracted to arrest the squadron decline in 2015-2020 period. You'll have 4 x Mig-21 M/MF, 3 x Mig-27ML and 1 x Mig-21 Bis on their way out and 4 x Su-30MKI, 2 x Tejas Mk1 and now, 2 x Rafale coming into the service. This should balance out the immediate requirement. And this immediate requirement is what is driving the Government decision. Now, the question is what happens after 2020 in the 2020-25 when 2 x Tejas Mk2 (number produced by 2025), 4 x Rafale and hopefully, 1 x FGFA were expected to come in for 6 x Mig-21 Bison and 2 x Mig-27 UPG squadrons being phased out. What can happen is more numbers of Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 being ordered to make up for sheer numbers w/o getting into qualitative aspect. The IAF was relying on Rafale to make up the 42 squadron number target by 2025-27 period.

Rohit, my guess is that we are looking at additional Mk1 Tejas plus Pakfa coming online between 2020-25. Don't see the Mk2 Tejas being available much before 2025 anyway. I'd expect an extra order of Tejas mk1 (1.5 ityadi) soon, hopefully @ FOC. Pakfa should also be available around 2020, iirc some news reports mentioned recently that India was looking to get 40 off the shelf - v.typical procurement procedure.

So, for 2020-25 we will probably see:

4XTejas mk1
2XPakfa

replace Pakfa (if not available for whatever reason) with more Rafale. The only way IAF is getting past 39.5 number is via more Tejas.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 11 Apr 2015 11:33

Nuclear cooperation

The first is for France to translate into action its previously expressed acceptance of India’s stance of nuclear exceptionalism and for the two countries to enter into full-spectrum collaboration. Such a partnership should be aimed at reducing the incubation time of Indian nuclear technologies and would cover the full nuclear cycle, including reactors, enrichment and reprocessing. This nuclear cooperation would logically extend into the sphere of military nuclear propulsion. The upcoming French Barracuda class SSN, for example, is optimally suited to the Indian Navy’s needs. If India buying the Rafale is the truest sign of India’s commitment to the relationship, then the nuclear submarine may well be the litmus test of French reciprocity.

But, again, it is important not to get fixated only on the big-ticket items but to use the other opportunities that signature government initiatives like “Skilling” and “Make in India” offer alongside these big deals. The French could, for example, help develop the defence sector eco-system in India, especially in the small and medium segments, investing in skills and capacity building here. This is where the real value addition takes place in the defence business and this could be the differentiator between France and other countries.

The second element must be regional cooperation. Increasingly, the interests of the two countries have intersected and their views tend to be similar even if their positions are not. Much of this is because Indian and French foreign policies share the same fundamental view of strategic autonomy and refuse to cede security primacy to one or two actors. It was because of this that India had, in 2013, co-sponsored a UN resolution that paved the way for French intervention in Mali. This is why it needs to cooperate in the Indian Ocean, West Asia and North Africa. India and France have significant interests here and it is perhaps time to build a robust platform for dialogue that will allow the two nations to cooperate meaningfully.

West Asia and North Africa are in the midst of a turbulent period of dramatic change. India’s chief task is to secure its energy source, the safety of its diaspora, and the stability of its extended neighbourhood. France will continue to play a significant role in the region.

As for the Indian Ocean area, France is a major power here and has demonstrated some degree of interest in cooperating with India. A focussed engagement would also be a natural extension of the collaboration envisaged here between the U.S. and India earlier this year. Co-investing with France in a ‘research’ facility located in Mauritius may serve as the point of convergence for such a regional play. This could form the basis for intensified cooperation on maritime domain awareness, building capacity in Indian Ocean Rim countries, and in honing synergistic strategies to deal with humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/11042015-t ... -analysis/

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2015 11:39

This has all the makings of the T 90 induction.

nash · Post by **nash** » 11 Apr 2015 11:43

http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/raf ... 76984.html

Rafale fighter jets will be inducted in the Indian Air Force in a span of two years, said Parrikar.

So the 126 wala deal got 2 more years, probably by 2017

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 11 Apr 2015 11:46

Can GOI buy 51% share of Dassault? Because it is only sensible option if we are to maintain separate spares and serviceability for 36 birds. Also, stick to 'Make in India' promise and defense "yindooisation".

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2015 11:48

If the news of the purchase of 36 jets is accurate. Then the 126 wala deal will have to happen now, and not at India's terms. It will now happen at the terms the French want.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 11:52

Pratyush, that's why I was so against reports like these:
Sukhoi cannot replace Rafale: Arup Raha, IAF chief
http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... -arup-raha
No Plan B on MMRCA: IAF Chief
http://www.spsshownews.com/news/?id=172 ... -IAF-Chief

as versus this
http://www.stratpost.com/iaf-fighter-st ... ip-further

Note that while they admit the Rafale/FGFA/Su-30 is cost wise unsustainable, LCA orders/focus is still on the backburner. Note the attempt in the above article to scuttle even that and explore "alternatives" to the LCA. Much money in these things. A few of the gents in the round table conference (esp. one gent, non IAF) pushed that idea pretty hard. An IAF gent who is now at HAL, and known to be anti LCA admitted he wanted Mk1 scuttled.

More things change, more things remain the same.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2015 11:53

It will take 6 months to about an year to get a clear picture on what the impact of the latest deal is going to be.

Look at what Su Swamy is saying now. He is looking for a reason not to go to court quite against his earlier stand.

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 46m46 minutes ago

Digvijay Singh daring me to go to court on Raffael is an incentive not to go to court--Unless he promises to quit politics if I do.

EconomicTimes ‏@EconomicTimes 4m4 minutes ago

Rafale fighter jets to be inducted in IAF in a span of two years: Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Apr 2015 12:04

Atleast there is closure to MMRCA deal now , Too much of time has been spent on a deal that shouldnt have taken more than 5 years.

My thinking is with 36 ordered ,the 108 TOT will proceed smoothly because the french wouldnt want to loose the 108 with 36 confirmed order and perhaps it may even go higher.

We would see in days ahead French agreeing to Indias demand and its win-win for both.

Not to mention French wont have any issues of Rafale getting hardwired for nuclear role taking over the baton from M2K so to speak.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 12:10

>>>My thinking is with 36 ordered ,the 108 TOT will proceed smoothly because the french wouldnt want to loose the 108 with 36 confirmed order and perhaps it may even go higher.

Or they no longer care about giving a good deal for the 108.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 11 Apr 2015 12:17

under the circumstance, it was the best decision.. a proven platform to make up dwindling numbers. Its not as though Dassault has all the aces... they also want more orders in future as there is no other buyer for Rafale. Indian order helps them stay afloat..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Apr 2015 12:18

Let's try taking a dekko from the GOI's viewpoint.

1.IAF's fleet strength and capability in serious decline (thank the UPA,Snake-oil Singh,the Saint and Godmother Sinner G for the same for doing b*gger all for 10 years).

2.Rafale chosen after the world's greatest aerial combat in history,both in the air by pilots and on the ground by beancounters.

3.Finalising the deal languished for years tx again to the triumvirate. Enter the "R" co.,bum-chum of Sinner G and the Congress. A new would be aircraft manufacturer,who would corner the local manufacture replacing HAL. Dassault played the game by saying HAL incompetent to make the Rafale upto French quality. HAL's track record nothing to write home about. Eager beavers rubbing their hands in anticipation of cunning escalation in costs,greater pocket money for alleged fixers.

4. LCA MK-1 development staggers on,deadlines keep getting extended. Deliberate ,so that the Raffy deal can be suitably "fixed",or due to tech inability of HAL ? Jury still out on this one. LCA's late arrival,series production still to arrive causes a worsening crisis in the IAF's numbers and capability. GOI also has a serious fund crunch,cannot afford $20B for the Raffy deal.

5.SU-30MKI production however maturing well,70% indigenization/local materials,availability % going up with service contracts and HAL's first total overhaul of an MKI earlier this year. MKI half the price says DM.Is an option instead of the Rafale.

6.Consternation at Dassault. Either they meet the terms of the agreement signed earlier or say goodbye.DM,very firm on the issue.MKI option being dangled in front of Dassault/France's nose. IAF also in a tizzy. A very reluctant groom-to-be "engaged" to the shy,blushing desi Tejasvi ,lusting instead after a more attractive French courtesan. Negative MKI "Natasha" reports suddenly appear."Too buxom and has thunder thighs like some desi.." Oops! Let me not get into trouble here! Anyway,you get the picture.

7.Thus,as one has been advocating for aeons,"cut one's coat according to your cloth". No one knows this better in the present dispensation than our fashion icon Mr.Modi. Give the IAF what they want, beefs up our endangered security too,but only a small dose of cognac,in far smaller quantity than the IAF would wish,keeping all other medicinal options open (vodka,arrack) for a later date and use this deal as a sweetener for other fish in the frying pan.

In other words,we've just postponed the decision on the future battle order of the IAF for the next decade,but the French filly has got her nose inside the IAF's tent at last!

PS:Our N-sub programme appears to be very well thought out and appears to be running as scheduled.Russian tech help has been forthcoming and officially acknowledged.Our SSBN and SSN designs are/will be largely based upon the tech recd. from Russia. Russian N-sub tech is considered the best after the US (superior in some aspects say US sources themselves),with the Brits and French traiiing behind. It is unlikely that we would want substantial French help for our N-subs,adding another model of N-tech complicating matters. They may be a few similar components obtained from the Scorpene programme,but given the lease of Akulas,N-sub help,unlikely apart from conventional sub tech.
The Areva N-tech for civilian plants is required more than the above.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2015 12:19

If this order is about getting a better deal for the remainder of the jets. Then you can forget about that. Any one who thinks that after this purchase, India will get a better deal from the French. I have the Taj Mahal to sell them.

This is the worst possible negotiating position adapted by the Indians.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 11 Apr 2015 12:27

I think everyone is going about the rafale the wrong way. These 36 jets are just it. There will not be any more. There will be no more negotiation, TOT, funds etc.

This is a red herring.

This deal has been stuck for 4 years and cancelling it would send a wrong message to investors. So they compromised and ordered 36 in flyaway condition so that they could close this case and concentrate on the real meat that is LCA and AMCA.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 12:32

this thread is also going in circles. ah, mmrca.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 11 Apr 2015 12:34

Cain Marko wrote: Rohit, my guess is that we are looking at additional Mk1 Tejas plus Pakfa coming online between 2020-25. Don't see the Mk2 Tejas being available much before 2025 anyway. I'd expect an extra order of Tejas mk1 (1.5 ityadi) soon, hopefully @ FOC. Pakfa should also be available around 2020, iirc some news reports mentioned recently that India was looking to get 40 off the shelf - v.typical procurement procedure.

So, for 2020-25 we will probably see:

4XTejas mk1
2XPakfa

replace Pakfa (if not available for whatever reason) with more Rafale. The only way IAF is getting past 39.5 number is via more Tejas.

I concur. More Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 is an inevitable...question is on the timing aspect.

I think more orders for Tejas will follow once the fist lot is delivered and FOC is in place. Both will happen over next two years. And as per my calculations, there is a definite room for 2 x Tejas squadrons in the IAF's goal for 42 Squadron force level.

A broad back of the envelope calculation gives me the following structure of IAF by 2027:

Su-30MKI - 14
Mirage-2000 - 3
Mig-29 - 3
Jaguar - 5+1
Rafale - 8
Tejas Mk1/Mk1.5 - 4
Tejas Mk2 - 4
FGFA - 2

Total: 44 Squadrons.
--------------------------------------------

AMCA needs to come online at the right time - those 12 squadrons between M2k, Mig-29 and Jaguar will be needing replacement by 2030 period.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2015 12:38

Shonu wrote:I think everyone is going about the rafale the wrong way. These 36 jets are just it. There will not be any more. There will be no more negotiation, TOT, funds etc.

This is a red herring.

This deal has been stuck for 4 years and cancelling it would send a wrong message to investors. So they compromised and ordered 36 in flyaway condition so that they could close this case and concentrate on the real meat that is LCA and AMCA.

What will people say?? is this the reason why this purchase was made?

Sir, this is not how such decisions are made.

I will wait for the confirmation of the purchase from the official sources when the GOI signs of the dotted line. If the reports are true and this deal will go ahead. Then this is the worst possible step that the GOI would have made.

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 11 Apr 2015 12:39

shiv wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: Now the focus should be on bringing the Tejas online - Mk1 followed by Mk2. Around 2020 the Pakfa follows and by 2030 get the AMCA ready to replace the fulcrums and M2Ks.
While I am an ardent MiG 21 fan and an admirer of Su 30 - Russian technology simply has not catapulted India into the western league in terms of serviceability and reliability. The Su 30s 60% availability rate does not compare well with the Mirage 2000's 90% availability. There is something in the west's design and material philosophy that we need to learn. I worry that PAKFA wil be no different from other Russian aircraft in terms of serviceability and reliability and mean time between overhaul.

Unfortunately Jaguar is very much 60s tech and only took us from the 1950s to the 1980s

We all hope so