Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 11 Apr 2015 13:22

Pratyush wrote:
Shonu wrote:I think everyone is going about the rafale the wrong way. These 36 jets are just it. There will not be any more. There will be no more negotiation, TOT, funds etc.

This is a red herring.

This deal has been stuck for 4 years and cancelling it would send a wrong message to investors. So they compromised and ordered 36 in flyaway condition so that they could close this case and concentrate on the real meat that is LCA and AMCA.

What will people say?? is this the reason why this purchase was made?

Sir, this is not how such decisions are made.

I will wait for the confirmation of the purchase from the official sources when the GOI signs of the dotted line. If the reports are true and this deal will go ahead. Then this is the worst possible step that the GOI would have made.

Might be something to consider. I don't see any mention of the rafale deal on here:

http://www.narendramodi.in/list-of-agre ... pril-2015/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Apr 2015 13:30

Karan M wrote:>>>My thinking is with 36 ordered ,the 108 TOT will proceed smoothly because the french wouldnt want to loose the 108 with 36 confirmed order and perhaps it may even go higher.

Or they no longer care about giving a good deal for the 108.

Not if they want to loose it after getting 36.

There would be some kind of give and take before final handshake , We cant expect Dassault to take care of all our demands neither can Dassault expect to take this big deal for granted and have to give up on some thing.

Thats how deals are signed give & take and it should be beneficial for both else it would be no go.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 11 Apr 2015 13:44

1 The deal for 36 rafales is proposed, not signed.

2 The deal as such is a terrible one, but as a sweetener for the main deal, it has a potential to persuade dassault to agree to the main deal, along with addressing the shortfall in squadrons of IAF. (One of the problems was the low number of aircraft produced in France in the deal, the unions didn't like that.)

3 The deal as such is a terrible one. Unless it facilitates either the main deal or some other, it is a bad move.

Lets wait till the picture clears.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 11 Apr 2015 14:00

Rafale fighter jets to be inducted into IAF in span of two years: Manohar Parrikar

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar said on Saturday that Rafale fighter jets will be inducted into the Indian Air Force in a span of two years.

Manohar Parrikar hailed the government's decision to directly purchase 36 Rafale fighter jets and said that "India has finally broken the ice over the deal which has been pending for the last 17 years."

"Rafale fighter deal is a great decision taken on the terms and conditions that are better," Parrikar added.

An excellent decision by a visionary PM, who is truly committed to national security.

Notwithstanding the predictable carping from numerous vested interests, this government has put national security first.

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 11 Apr 2015 14:01

Syed Akbaruddin ‏@MEAIndia 32m32 minutes ago
Make in India gains further momentum.
$2 billion cumulative outsourcing planned by @Airbus from India by 2020.

(Rafale Deal Quid-pro-quo?)

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 11 Apr 2015 14:03

There seems to have been some truth to the initial 63 story that was the first to break...

The Indian government wants to acquire "as soon as possible," the 36 Rafale "turnkey" because of a "critical operational need" of the Indian Air Force, said the Indian Prime Minister. Initial discussions focused on 63 aircraft for a total contract of 7.2 billion euros.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... JCrCQqu.99

The deal is expected to be around 4 Billion Euros minus weapons so about $111 Million per jet.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Apr 2015 14:15

brar_w wrote:There seems to have been some truth to the initial 63 story that was the first to break...

The Indian government wants to acquire "as soon as possible," the 36 Rafale "turnkey" because of a "critical operational need" of the Indian Air Force, said the Indian Prime Minister. Initial discussions focused on 63 aircraft for a total contract of 7.2 billion euros.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/ ... JCrCQqu.99
The deal is expected to be around 4 Billion Euros minus weapons so about $111 Million per jet.

brar_w, thank you for looking for details and the focus on the deal.

While my own opinion on Rafale remains that we should not be buying it and instead focus on developing Tejas / AMCA with the money for finally our defence has to be sourced from within, it is apparent that decision makers have felt an immediate need and ordered off the shelf purchase outside the negotiations going on for MMRCA.

We had clear hints of the urgency when the DM, Shri Manohar Parrikar had clearly asked for PAK FA / FGFA speed up and discussed alternatives of Su 30 MKI purchases. But, the way GOI finally moved has us all stumped. No one saw an off the shelf purchase at this time. Clearly, the present dispensation is thinking differently and is ready to take decisions which may even seem unpopular.

Whether the decision is right or wrong, we should at least celebrate the fact that finally decisions are being taken. Finally, we have Leaders at helm.

srin · Post by **srin** » 11 Apr 2015 14:24

Those saying that we should have acquired a stake in Dassault ignore the realities:
a) Getting a stake only means taking part in profits. At best a board seat. We don't really care for that.
b) They won't give controlling stake nor will they allow outsourcing of work or ToT to India. They just have to instigate some union strike or point to some law that prevents us from having access to technologies.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 11 Apr 2015 15:02

Well this thread is rocking since NaMo agreed to buy 36 Katrina from France. The way negotiations were going it would have taken another two years to conclude the deal and four years to start getting delivery. NaMo wanted quick additions to IAF. He went for Govt to Govt transfer as soon as possible for OTS rafale. France have been a good friend and partner to india. many would remember their role in supplying fuel for tarapur when US reneged on its agreement post POK-1. I think we had good experience in past.

Rafale has been technically accepted by IAF and that made the job easier. Negotiations can continue on the existing tender. I hope TOT would be finalised under MII of NaMo. He might have disappointed many on brfites with this decision but then he is the man at the helm.

soumik · Post by **soumik** » 11 Apr 2015 15:27

The 36 Rafale will buy time enough for HAL to retool a plant to produce Rafales while also providing time to the establishment to work out the kinks in the production deal, we were looking at HAL only beginning to produce the aircraft in 2017-18 even if the deal was signed yesterday, this way we cut out the gap of two years without losing the timeframe for production. More importantly it also lets the IAF train and familiarize more pilots on the Rafale.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 15:30

Rafale The Power of One: https://youtu.be/J4Z4yK3nCWM

End of the video has some soothing lru and engine removal footage. Easy as plug n play

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 11 Apr 2015 16:24

eklavya wrote: .....
Defence minister Manohar Parrikar said on Saturday that Rafale fighter jets will be inducted into the Indian Air Force in a span of two year.
.........

This 36 aircraft will be fresh of production line or will we be getting already produced moth balled ones. Since two year is a short time how will long lead items like engines be integrated, tested and delivered by April 2017.

Aditya G · Post by **Aditya G** » 11 Apr 2015 17:00

Rafale is a superb choice, one made by IAF. We need to recognize this as the good news over here. When we purchased 2 squadrons of Mirage-2000, it too was very expensive compared to our fighter backbone MiG-21. IIRC you could purchase 100 MiGs for one Mirage. In hindsight that decision was the right one and I believe this one is as well.

However, I see two failures our overall procurement process.

1. For a change, the MMRCA contract took a long term force view by ordering more than 100 fighters using a complex evaluation and costing methodology. But our own bureaucractic framework prevents closing such deals. We will continue seeing piecemeal expensive deals like we have done in C-130, P-8, C-17. Even Hawks, Jaguars and Su-30s have been order in blocks. But these were nominally "Made in India"

2. Secondly,across both the Navy and Air Force we have been unable to consolidate different makes/systems/types. So we have a curious case of competing and often incompatible families of weapon systems;

French: Mirage-2000, Rafale, MICA, Exocet
Russian: Su-30, MiG-21 Bison, MiG-29UPG, MiG-29K leading to PAK-FA, KH-35, Brahmos
British: SHAR, Jaguar, Hawk, Sea Eagle,
US: P-8I, Harpoon
Israel: Derby, radars for Jaguars, SHARs

chaitanya · Post by **chaitanya** » 11 Apr 2015 17:11

Karan M wrote:An IAF gent who is now at HAL, and known to be anti LCA admitted he wanted Mk1 scuttled.

Slightly OT, but related to HAL and its inability to deliver - is this problem a management issue or a lack of skills/technology issue? If it is a management issue then is it possible for GoI/MOD to replace the current management with more competent/unbiased people (maybe from different industries even)?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2015 17:37

Murugan wrote:Syed Akbaruddin ‏@MEAIndia 32m32 minutes ago
Make in India gains further momentum.
$2 billion cumulative outsourcing planned by @Airbus from India by 2020.

(Rafale Deal Quid-pro-quo?)

There is also news that Rafale deal worth $7.5 billion will have an offset of nearly $2.5 billion.

So for a overall spend of about $7.5 billion, we will get back $4.5 billion in deals/offsets all to private sector.

Now the good thing about aerospace sector is that it is one of the most sticky sectors in terms of suppliers. This is because of the very strict quality and certification norms. Good vendors have an opportunity to embed themselves in the global supply chain of a top notch plane maker for years.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:25

direct laptop hookup to the plane

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:26

keep extra engines for swapping in, get the bird back into the fight quicker...old israeli motto

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:28

take it away on work on it offline using the special snecma m88 trolley

Shankk · Post by **Shankk** » 11 Apr 2015 18:36

It is a possibility that Rafale will never be made in India as earlier envisaged. There probably will be a follow on order of more planes that are manufactured in France in order to make sense of our investment in maintenance and other support infrastructure.

How on earth were we supposed to absorb the technology and still continue R&D on LCA in any meaningful way? It is clear that even with the best of talent we have in the country it is still inadequate to get indigenous planes faster. Now with this new technology from Rafale, most of that trained manpower including scientists, designers, assemblers, production line workers will be necessary to focus on new technology thus reducing much needed attention from advancing LCA research done all this long. Also it is not all that easy to just new concepts, tricks and then use them in LCA research. These things advance only incrementally to reduce the risks. Besides France will certainly put in clauses about usage of its IP. Just like in case of Kalashnikov we cannot rampantly use new tricks anywhere we want without an impact in our relations with France.

Probably the idea is to get another couple squadrons of Rafale off the shelf and use all the trained manpower we currently have to concentrate on continued R&D on LCA and AMCA. We might acquire some much needed technology from France as part of the overall larger deal that PM recently signed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:39

the fat parts of the wing root behind the two canards have two avionics bays where a mass of LRUs are vertically inserted and removed from slots by removing one panel.
so due to the compact main fuselage they moved the avionics bay there from its usual position just behind the cockpit or under the floor of the cockpit.

imo we will probably get another 36 made in france and never assemble it in india. HAL will ofcourse setup deep overhaul facility in due course starting with 1st line ops. it just does not make sense for 36 planes of such a complex nature. simpler craft like pilatus or hawk it could be justified as their tech and avionics are much more austere and HAL is already at or beyond that level courtesy su30 and jaguar.

rafale apparently has 500 sub part suppliers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:42

the famous photo of a f22 snagged in a rafale gunsight during some dogfight
http://i146.photobucket.com/albums/r279 ... 000000.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 18:44

since we are only getting 36 for a while, I vote they be used as the tier1 DPSA role and arm them with brahmos-A (test it asap), KH59, our 100km range gliding bomb and SDB3. SDB is likely a lot cheaper than AASM and will easily go in the famous triple pylons used for the aasm.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:29

Chaanakya wrote:[quote="Karan M'] wrote:
An IAF gent who is now at HAL, and known to be anti LCA admitted he wanted Mk1 scuttled.

Slightly OT, but related to HAL and its inability to deliver - is this problem a management issue or a lack of skills/technology issue? If it is a management issue then is it possible for GoI/MOD to replace the current management with more competent/unbiased people (maybe from different industries even)?
[/quote][/quote][/quote][/quote]

There are many things going on together..
1. IAF-ADA-HAL distrust. Historical.. many reasons. Biggest bane of the program. Many IAF guys never wanted it, many thought it'd die a natural death & wither away. Other IAF guys worked with ADA to get it done.
Person in question was in charge of MMRCA & also submitted a report trying to have the LCA culled. This sort of stuff makes many in ADA deeply suspicious of handing over program management to the IAF which may just kill the program & then go for the next import. This will go away only when the IAF orders LCA in number (for which ADA & HAL also have to do their bit and develop/deliver the plane to IAF reqs).
2. HAL wants to preserve capex and wants IAF to commit to larger orders & put up half of the money required from 8 t0 16. Under the previous CEO, HAL seems to have committed itself more seriously to LCA. Historically, ADA was always running after HAL to take LCA seriously. Again, because of ADA "taking LCA from HAL etc etc".
3. IAF saving money for Rafale. The Su-30 upg, force multiplier purchase & to an extent the LCA all have been on backburner because IAF wants Rafale & wants it budgeted first & foremost
4. Tech challenges with LCA.. there are several, but a lot of scope creep from IAF too wherein they want many more bells and whistles on Mk1. This has led to Mk2 program. A subset of folks (ex IAF) have spoken out and pointed out that all said & done, Mk1 is still superior to most planes in IAF today & should be inducted asap as versus waiting for Mk2. AHQ is still pushing for Mk2. It has to do with historical reasons of only taking the best etc & also point1. Why should we order in advance, let ADA/HAL prove themselves to us.
Currently, IAF has indent on ADA for 2 sq Mk1. Engines for Mk2 are 99, around 4 sq for IAF + testbeds for program + navy LSP.
5. All said & done, I do think once Mk1 gets in service, things may change for the better. Navy has a detailed redesign of the bird which is also a plus.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Apr 2015 19:32

I think the deal for 108 may have been close to getting struck anyway but it may have been conditional on giving French industry 36 fighters. The way I see it, we will need to replace the 27s, 21's immediately and at the same time simplify logistics with the induction of just 1 aircraft.

So in the end we have 30s, Rafale, and LCA forming the bulk of our forces with the gradual phasing out of the 29s, Jags and Mirages. The LCA order will have to go up regardless.

In the second scenario: We only get 36 Rafales and pour the rest of the money into inducting indigenous air and ground weapons, engines, sensors, and mass production of LCA. This would mean giving the Americans a lot of leverage over a significant bulk of our fleet for the short and medium term with the 414 engine.

It could go either way. As far as EF is concerned, I dont think that adding another aircraft is on anyone's mind.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:32

pankajs wrote:
Murugan wrote:Syed Akbaruddin ‏@MEAIndia 32m32 minutes ago
Make in India gains further momentum.
$2 billion cumulative outsourcing planned by @Airbus from India by 2020.

(Rafale Deal Quid-pro-quo?)
There is also news that Rafale deal worth $7.5 billion will have an offset of nearly $2.5 billion.

So for a overall spend of about $7.5 billion, we will get back $4.5 billion in deals/offsets all to private sector.

Now the good thing about aerospace sector is that it is one of the most sticky sectors in terms of suppliers. This is because of the very strict quality and certification norms. Good vendors have an opportunity to embed themselves in the global supply chain of a top notch plane maker for years.

I am especially happy about Airbus part because its a commercial maker and hence high volumes, recurring!

Like I said to NRao - not to misunderestimate Gujju bhai on deal making capability.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:34

Singha wrote:the fat parts of the wing root behind the two canards have two avionics bays where a mass of LRUs are vertically inserted and removed from slots by removing one panel.
so due to the compact main fuselage they moved the avionics bay there from its usual position just behind the cockpit or under the floor of the cockpit.

imo we will probably get another 36 made in france and never assemble it in india. HAL will ofcourse setup deep overhaul facility in due course starting with 1st line ops. it just does not make sense for 36 planes of such a complex nature. simpler craft like pilatus or hawk it could be justified as their tech and avionics are much more austere and HAL is already at or beyond that level courtesy su30 and jaguar.

rafale apparently has 500 sub part suppliers.

Do note though, the official line is still 108+36!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:36

Singha wrote:the famous photo of a f22 snagged in a rafale gunsight during some dogfight
http://i146.photobucket.com/albums/r279 ... 000000.jpg

I foresee a lot of teeth gnashing in Pak and PRC from yesterdin.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:37

From the PM himself, looks like Airbus can expand in a large manner and meet offset commitments in India.

https://twitter.com/PMOIndia/status/586 ... 60/photo/1

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 19:50

IAF Rafales will be 99.99% to this standard as its the one in production (along with some customization eg full IRST as MMRCA RFP had that). Most likely the std E-4 engine.

http://rafalenews.blogspot.in/2011/06/r ... ehong.html

First, the Rafale F3-O4T (former Rafale roadmap) : 60 fighters ordered (25C, 25B, 10M) deliveries from 2013 to 2019

RBE-2 AESA : Final evaluation in June-July with a qualification expected before the end of 2011
DDM-NG : new missile warning receiver compatible with a future active IR jammer.
OSF-IT : improved front sector optronic suite
Damocles-XF : add a sharper TV channel to the current IR channel for better identification in urban zones. Should be introduced in 2016.
M88-2-E4 engine : extended service life and 2 to 4% less consumption
Export option : 9 tonnes M88 engine. Require a 1.5 cm air intake enlargement and material change to keep low RCS. Proposed to the UAE.

Rafale F3 weaponry
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Pv7RUsrqSvo/T ... lien_p.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 20:08

The 9t m88 sounds promising if its going to haul brahmosa and nirbhay

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 20:18

$2 bn investment? hah.
Airbus is only doing as much of a favour to India as India is doing for Airbus. Maybe less

Anyone recall this news item from a few months ago?
Airbus Gains Record Order for 250 Jets From India’s IndiGo

India’s leading budget airline, IndiGo, agreed to buy a record 250 single-aisle planes from Airbus Group NV on Wednesday, looking to beef up its fleet to better target India’s high-growth but highly competitive market.

The deal is valued at $25.7 billion at list prices, representing the largest order to date for Airbus, although big buyers such as IndiGo typically get large discounts. The planes are scheduled to be delivered from 2018 through 2026.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 20:46

shiv wrote:$2 bn investment? hah.
Airbus is only doing as much of a favour to India as India is doing for Airbus. Maybe less

Anyone recall this news item from a few months ago?
Airbus Gains Record Order for 250 Jets From India’s IndiGo
India’s leading budget airline, IndiGo, agreed to buy a record 250 single-aisle planes from Airbus Group NV on Wednesday, looking to beef up its fleet to better target India’s high-growth but highly competitive market.

The deal is valued at $25.7 billion at list prices, representing the largest order to date for Airbus, although big buyers such as IndiGo typically get large discounts. The planes are scheduled to be delivered from 2018 through 2026.

Fair points shiv. Looks like unlike China, we have no consistent policy to leverage tech and offsets from such huge orders across the board.
$2.5Bn = ~10% of just the above deal.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 11 Apr 2015 20:58

shiv wrote:$2 bn investment? hah.

Sir $2 billion outsourcing per year. Very much possible given that the current govt. will leverage Public / Pvt combined orders for this purpose.
Any foreign company knows very well now that to do business in India they need to show some tangible stuff for Make In India .

Singha wrote:9t m88 sounds promising

I don't think IAF will push for it. development cost ~2 billion.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 11 Apr 2015 21:00

I think that Airbus order by Indigo was the largest single order placed for any aircraft in any airshow ever.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 11 Apr 2015 21:14

25.7 Bn - you are most probably right!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Apr 2015 21:30

These are orders from Private companies Indigo financed by EU banks GOI has no say in that.

In China most of the big orders are from state airlines or semi/psedo state airlines so they can bargain a bigger deal with Airbus.

If says Air India and Indian Airlines both buy from Airbus then its becomes big order to leverage but thats not happening

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2015 21:32

Future Rafale “F3 R” standard launched

Earlier last year French government and Dassault Aviation have agreed to start work on “F3 R” standard which will bring further upgrades to F3.3 standard. F3 R will feature software enhancements to make full use of the RBE2-AA radar, Meteor long-range air-to-air missile integration, SBU-64 dual-mode laser/GPS AASM smart bomb integration, improvements to Thales SPECTRA self-defence system, an Identification Friend or Foe interrogator/transponder with full Mode-5/ Mode-S-compatibility , New“F3 R” standard Rafales will enter production from 2018 on-wards.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Apr 2015 21:41

^ IIRC the F3R is still under works. The one missing capability for IAF Rafales, and an uber capability at that will be the lack of the Meteor integration - sucks! I wish they would push for this even more than the M88 @ 9tons.

By the way, does anyone have an idea where the first Rafales will be based? Kalaikunda, Bengaluru?

So, now we are faced with one great option and a second calamitous one with a third, "meeh" type option.

Good news first:
Rafale buy stays limited to present 36 (or at the most another sqd or so) and LCA mk1 numbers increase. Plus a concentrated effort at Pakfa.

Awful option:
Rafale buy increases and LCA mk1 is ignored. Pakfa is pursued

OK option:

Rafale and Pakfa duke it out and LCA mk1 + mk2 numbers increase.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 11 Apr 2015 21:42

deejay wrote:But, the way GOI finally moved has us all stumped. No one saw an off the shelf purchase at this time. Clearly, the present dispensation is thinking differently and is ready to take decisions which may even seem unpopular.

(Tentatively raising hand with a furtive glance around a classroom filled with experts and checking RWR for alerts)

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... start=3040 (see the 2nd post, somehow the direct link to post doesn't work)

What will the Rafale package cost if we were to drop the ToT requirement and just import it from France?

Not wanting to take credit, for what I had asked was only a question and not a definitive stance. Just saying that BRF could have been ahead of the curve. I was asking about the feasibility of just importing the 126 and doubling down on the LCA. Of course GoI took a decision with smaller numbers as 126 nos. of imports would not have sat well with Make in India. But I am also veering around to the view expressed in the previous page that the 36 will eventually increase to some middle number at least.

deejay wrote:Whether the decision is right or wrong, we should at least celebrate the fact that finally decisions are being taken. Finally, we have Leaders at helm.

Completely agree.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2015 21:44

shiv wrote:I think that Airbus order by Indigo was the largest single order placed for any aircraft in any airshow ever.

It was, at that time. It has since been overtaken by large Emirates widebody orders I think. Just for that reason, we should demand that we have a localized A320 line in India.