Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 13 Apr 2015 19:03

^^ And that's how the flank is protected by preemptively heading off Congi pincer strikes. Well done, Mr Swamy.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Apr 2015 19:04

I am expecting another 36 or 48 in due course for a grand total of 72 or 84. thats still a pretty formidable number of an a/c in many ways superior to the F-15E.

the Su30s will likely undergo a deep upgrade as well, and get some form of aesa radar borrowed from the PAKFA and EW systems for the same. new missiles too. with Astra (which IAF is keen on due to the r77 issues), the usual LGB kits, the NGARM, brahmos-A, nirbhay and 100km range gliding weapons it will finally be having a weapons suite comparable to the F-15 in a few years in terms of versatile and hard hitting power.

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 13 Apr 2015 19:05

NEWS Alert "Existing Rafale deal is canceled. Future Rafale negotiation will be between GOVT-GOVT. " DM

-Ankit

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2015 19:06

When Swamy started using Dogvijay as a shield it became apparent that he was trying to back out

This is a brand new deal which cuts out all the middle men. With a inbuilt discount over the previous price the middlemen would not get a dime more than what they would already have received as a token in the initial days.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 13 Apr 2015 19:06

All this means the pump is being primed for the Tejas! Waiting for the announcement to make this jingo khush...

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 13 Apr 2015 19:07

Rafale deal is defence's Make in India landmark.

The mega deal with Rafale is first landmark in the Make In India plan for the defence sector, and promises to put into throttle investments and expansion of small and large industry to produce parts and tech that needs to go with it.

What it will bring with it is technology transfer, research and development and a new skill building opportunities. 36 ready planes make for two squadrons of the Indian Air Force and can boost its otherwise weakening and aeging fleet. This $20 billion deal will mean $10 billion opportunity in manufacturing offsets in India.

What’s unique and progressive about this deal is that Rafale may be working with a private Indian company to build 90 planes. Rafale project was earlier stuck because of the manufacturer Dassualt’s reluctance to bank on a PSU’s competence as it was being forced to work with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Now with the new deal (and the new government) the contract will go to a private defence manufacturer. The Indian government under UPA was insistent that the French manufacturer guarantee timely deliverance and quality of the plane by the Bengaluru-based PSU, something the company was not willing to do. Finally, the deal is set to take off with these issues out of the way.

We in India have been obsessed and concerned with the FDI in defence debate although most of our military capacity has always been supported by foreign equipment and planes. Deals like these may showcase that foreign tech and investment in Indian military aviation can grow its strategic capability and it’s a good time to shed fears attached to FDI in the sector too.

History is replete with examples that India’s experiments with indigenisation have, at best, been tardy. Homegrown companies can continue researching with grants and doles but that could take a while before we achieve anything. According to a paper published by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) even if India increases its R&D efforts in a big way, the benefits in terms of equipping the armed forces with proven technologies will not accrue in the near future.

In the 65 years since independence, we should have been able to absorb technology and understand it. All these years we left things to the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) and look where we stand today. The Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) took 25 years to make and is still to get inducted in the fleet. The Arjun Battle Tank was also delayed. When India bought the Sukhoi SU-30 from Russia, it was decided that eventually they would transfer technology and equipment, and we would put them together here in our factories but even there our figures went beyond the cost of importing it.

Eventually we will need foreign investment in domestic companies. Worries of sabotage and blackmail can be addressed by putting in appropriate riders in any agreement with such company. The solution doesn’t lie with the government either; instead, the concern of strategic and security interest should allow for domestic private sector to be preferred to foreign firms.

India even lags the nations in its own neighbourhood. China, for instance, has reduced dependence on imports, created its own industry and has begun exporting indigenously developed military equipment. In 1947 China’s defence was near nothing, but today it may be the second largest. The fact is, India’s defence sector needs modernisation as nearly half its equipment is obsolete. Scams and corruption scandals have not made things easier.

The defence market is lumpy and the procedures opaque, such challenges make it harder for companies to enter the sector. Opening up the defence sector, going through with big deals will lead to higher investments and also increase the country’s ability to understand and grow with next generation tech. Most importantly it will put emphasis on making in India.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Apr 2015 19:08

looks like maggi & cheap mcdowell rum for italian dinner

not truffles, bordeaux wine and veal in lutyens mansions

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Apr 2015 19:10

Philip wrote:Production in India by whom? Dassault have no confidence in HAL,then by the "R" crowd?

The "R" factor ,if it surfaces in any way in this deal,is going to be a potential Bofors in the future.The "R" co. have absolutely no track record in the aviation industry and are best known as political fixers par excellence when it comes to protecting their interests and elbowing out their rivals. Their arrival on the scene of this deal was during the UPA-2 phase of the deal. Unlike companies like L&T,etc,who are engineering giants,engaged in supplying the services with a variety of def. eqpt. for decades,the "R" co. is the equivalent of a "money in the bank" WWE brigand!

How Dassult will be able to convince anyone that they can build the Rafale better than HAL beats me,unless a wholly new Dassault entity/manufacturing unit is set up in a JV with "R" in India,which would be the beginning of the end of HAL.That would be the thin end of the wedge.A whole succession of aircraft,helos,etc., would later on flow out from this entity and perhaps even HAL would one day end up being pvtly owned!

One eagerly awaits the details to be officially announced.

the "R" crowd will simply denude all HALs and some compatible allied ancillary industries of their productive, young and trainable manpower. This is what the Tata's have shamelessly done and L&T too. Some supervisory staff as well as senior staff will also be plundered from the same sources. Rest of the staff will be expats, quality will completely managed by expats, and drawings will come from france, jigs and fixtures will be built right at the factory and calibrated by the goras. The logistics will simply tie into the original system back home and will run seamlessly off that database, inventory and SAP or SAP like systems.

The higher paid lateral entry Indian staff will soon be eased out and moderately paid staff will rise through the ranks to take their place. Experienced quality staff will be gora dominated for a long time to come.

I have personally seen the operations of large aviation companies in India, mostly in hyderabad and they have done what is spelt out above.

Hearing that the "R" crowd has already made substantial investment in plant and machinery in gujarat

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:13

arshyam wrote:All this means the pump is being primed for the Tejas! Waiting for the announcement to make this jingo khush...

Aapke Muh main ghee aur shakkar.

I have a feeling that Days of Surprises are here.

Rafale deal G2G
Nuclear deal with french done while US is stuck.
Rafale Tender gone for a toss (Dassault must be wondering where it leaves them if there is any hitch in G2G).
Springing Judicial Accountability and Appointments commissions

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:18

On IBN7 Dm Parikkar speaking

He hints for two teams to sit together and decide for prices and other technical aspects for 36.
They will also decide how many under make in India category and says about 90 or so. But he also says that after some manufacture under MII we can focus on Tejas.

Please tune in and listen. It is Live.

member_28911 · Post by **member_28911** » 13 Apr 2015 19:18

There was talk of integrating Kh-58 ARM with MMRCA winner Rafale. So any news on this front?
There is also an indigenous ARM under-development which according to former head of DRDO will be ready for flight trials by 2017.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:19

He says LCA Tejas is replacement for MIG 21 but not Rafale.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Apr 2015 19:21

Singha wrote:looks like maggi & cheap mcdowell rum for italian dinner
not truffles, bordeaux wine and veal in lutyens mansions

there used to be a furniture polish quality of rum called DD Rum, popularly called drink and die rum. Wonder what happened to it?? is it still around, perchance?? may be some rum cognoscenti / connoisseur can enlighten us.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:23

DM: Deal will be cheaper than RFP price of Rafale and on better terms. This is not first G2G deal. It has happened in past.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 13 Apr 2015 19:27

Sid wrote: Well if Frenchies have dug in their heels and India is forced to buy to maintain some political leverage then just reduce the order size.

Buy 20/30 to complement Mirage fleet and move remaining funds for other program. Or give them to SFC in a specialized role.

We don't have money plain and simple.

................

Quoting myself from one year ago, did I had an ephiny?

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 13 Apr 2015 19:35

Now that this MMRCA is effectively over all I have to say is Jai Ho!

Now shift all the funding to LCA and other programs and rope in the private sector.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 13 Apr 2015 19:41

On IBN7 did DM actually say 90 or so Rafales to be made in India under MII ?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2015 19:45

Every thing is on the table right now from zero to 126+ Rafale from full imports to partial MII. Lets wait for another 6 months to 1 year for a definitive answer.

But the old process is dead ... DEAD. That much is confirmed.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:46

yes. @sanjay

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:48

126 full import is not on the table. if DM means what he said on IBN7

He will focus on Tejas. He was emphatic about Tejas saying it is replacement of MIG 21. Rafale is not replacement of Tejas. he also said Eurofighter is equally good and better in some areas whereas Rafale is better in some other areas. But he did,t hint purchasing Eurofighter. If they offer under MII that could also be considered.

He pooh poohed TOT citing his engineering background. He also mentioned that Full aircraft will have to be manufactured here and after sometime critical components would be placed under restricted import category meaning that it has to be made here. That list will be handed over during agreement. If India is not able to give adequate order we would have to devise ways to compensate for the loss of volume.

Will link full interview. Later.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 13 Apr 2015 19:56

Singha wrote:looks like maggi & cheap mcdowell rum for italian dinner
not truffles, bordeaux wine and veal in lutyens mansions

I saw Parrikar's intv on DD news with Nitin Gokhale. He said we originally floated RFP for 126. Now we're getting 36. How many more? Well we have to sit down with the french and decide pricing. Only then we'll get clarity on how many we're going to buy. But keep in mind that these are top of the line fighters and expensive. So while we have a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, we can't afford to stuff them with expensive Rafale's. So we will have to be realistic and decide the number.

Clear message there for anyone willing to hear - IAF does not have carte blanche and will listen to the MoD. And we will have a light fighter, most likely Tejas.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 19:57

http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/news/139753/1

With video.

नई दिल्ली। फ्रांस के लड़ाकू विमान राफेल की आलोचना कर रहे लोगों को आईबीएन7 पर देश के रक्षा मंत्री मनोहर पर्रिकर ने करारा जवाब दिया है। पर्रिकर ने आईबीएन7 से एक्सक्लूसिव बातचीत में साफ कहा कि ये विमान वायुसेना की जरूरत है। राफेल बेहतरीन क्षमता वाला विमान है और उसपर सवाल उठाना पूरी तरह से बेमानी है।

पर्रिकर ने राफेल को लेकर की जा रही आलोचनाओं का जवाब भी दिया और साफ कहा कि ये कहना गलत होगा कि राफेल विमान वायुसेना में इस वक्त मिग-21 विमानों का विकल्प है। पर्रिकर ने राफेल विमानों का विरोध कर रहे बीजेपी नेता सुब्रह्मण्यम स्वामी को समझाने की बात भी कही।

उन्होंने साफ कहा कि वो स्वामी से मिलेंगे और उन्हें समझाएंगे। गौरतलब है कि स्वामी ने इस सौदे के खिलाफ अदालत में जाने की धमकी दी थी। रक्षा मंत्री ने ये भी बताया कि मिग-21 की जगह देश में ही बन रहे हल्के विमान तेजस तैनात होंगे।

सुमित अवस्थी: 36 राफेल विमानों पर तो बात हो गई है लेकिन बाकी 90 विमानों के मुद्दे पर क्या बात हो रही है?

मनोहर पर्रिकर: मेक इन इंडिया पर दोनों सरकारों के साथ बात होने के बाद ही होगी। राफेल काफी महंगा विमान है। 126 विमानों के लिए 90 हजार करोड का सौदा होगा। सरकार से सरकार स्तर पर बात के बाद मेक इन इंडिया पर बात होगी। राफेल से मिग-21 रिप्लेस नहीं होगा, बाकी 90 विमानों पर हम चर्चा करेगें। तेजस से मिग-21 रिप्लेस होगा। 36 प्लेन खरीदने का निर्णय इन प्रिसिंपल हुआ है। दोनों देशों की टीमें बैठकर निर्णय लेगी कि कितने राफेल बनाने हैं। मिग 21 की जगह हल्का विमान तेजस लेगा।

सुमित अवस्थी: क्या ये सच है कि पिछले 10 सालों में दुनिया भर के रक्षा मंत्रालयों के मुकाबले हम पीछे छूट गए?

मनोहर पर्रिकर: मुझे किसी पर कीचढ़ फेंकने की आदत नहीं है, आरएफपी मॉडल से डील करना ही गलत है। पिछले दस सालों में किसी का किसी पर भरोसा नहीं रहा। एक रैंक, एक पेंशन का मुद्दा समाधान की ओर है। लेकिन कोर्ट के अंतरिम आदेश के कारण मुझे फैसला देखना होगा। अधिकतम 1 साल में हम एक रैंक, एक पेंशन को लागू कर सकेगें।

सुमित अवस्थी: राफेल सौदे को लेकर सुबह्यण्यम स्वामी कोर्ट जाने की बात कर रहे हैं?

मनोहर पर्रिकर: मैं सुबह्यण्यम स्वामी का सम्मान करता हूं। लेकिन मैं उन्हें एक दिन समझाने के लिए बुलाउंगा। उनका निर्णय इंस्टेट न्यूज पर आधारित हो सकता है।

सुमित अवस्थी: दिग्विजय सिंह के आरोपो पर क्या कहेंगे?

मनोहर पर्रिकर: हमारी डील क्लियर स्टेटमेंट पर है। हम आरएफपी से कम प्राइस पर बात करेगें। दोनों सरकारों के बीच सौदा क्या पहली बार हो रहा है।

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 13 Apr 2015 20:01

Prasad wrote:
Singha wrote:looks like maggi & cheap mcdowell rum for italian dinner
not truffles, bordeaux wine and veal in lutyens mansions
I saw Parrikar's intv on DD news with Nitin Gokhale. He said we originally floated RFP for 126. Now we're getting 36. How many more? Well we have to sit down with the french and decide pricing. Only then we'll get clarity on how many we're going to buy. But keep in mind that these are top of the line fighters and expensive. So while we have a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, we can't afford to stuff them with expensive Rafale's. So we will have to be realistic and decide the number.

Clear message there for anyone willing to hear - IAF does not have carte blanche and will listen to the MoD. And we will have a light fighter, most likely Tejas.

You are right. It was Sumit of IBN7 mentioned 90 and not DM

arun · Post by **arun** » 13 Apr 2015 20:19

PTI reports that licensed manufacturing option of Rafale in India by HAL has been halalled:

Future Rafale jet purchases will government-to-government: Parrikar

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Apr 2015 20:25

I am glad. HAL has grown addicted to the easy sugar of licensed manufacture.

give them money but to produce Tejas...a far more mentally challenging and character building task than reading translated french manuals and following directions from dassault onsite team/

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 13 Apr 2015 20:25

I'd say well played by GoI. You get to satisfy your urgent needs by 36 planes. You kill the previous deal which may been murky (For eg. Swamy gunning for Sonia's blood in it). And lastly you keep options open for future deals.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2015 20:27

That also means that the DM has to/will review the Tejas from now on very very frequently. He said that lack of frequent review led to Scorpene delay. Expect HAL to face more scrutiny going forward.

arun · Post by **arun** » 13 Apr 2015 20:28

arun wrote:PTI reports that licensed manufacturing option of Rafale in India by HAL has been halalled:

Future Rafale jet purchases will government-to-government: Parrikar

CNN IBN also reports that licensed manufacturing option of Rafale in India by HAL has been halalled:

Centre scraps $20 billion MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets for IAF, LCA Tejas to replace MiG-21

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 13 Apr 2015 20:34

By any chance these 36 Rafales meant to be for SFC, thus freeing the SU from that role

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 13 Apr 2015 20:36

GoI to HAL - "Enough of those question banks and model papers kid; go pick the textbook. You have to learn, not just pass an exam !!"

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 13 Apr 2015 20:43

Virendra wrote:GoI to HAL - "Enough of those question banks and model papers kid; go pick the textbook. You have to learn, not just pass an exam !!"

Very well put

Performance and Result is only what is of interest. If any issue found for LCA then it will not be surprising that ADA+DRDO will be mandated by Govt. to work directly with some other player

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Apr 2015 20:50

This is the best decision on the MMRCA by GoI. Three cheers for the Modi government!

The first of 36 Rafales wont be seen until the end of calendar year 2018. Expect about one per month until 2021 as Dassault's manufacturing capacity is limited to about 14 units per year. Any more than that and it raises questions about QC. They simply are not a Boeing or Lockheed Martin who can crank out nearly 70+ F/A-18s or F-35s per year.

If the Rafale is not of quality, don't expect any more purchases. If Modi is not reelected in 2019, then also don't expect any more purchases.

srai · Post by **srai** » 13 Apr 2015 20:54

arun wrote:
arun wrote:PTI reports that licensed manufacturing option of Rafale in India by HAL has been halalled:

Future Rafale jet purchases will government-to-government: Parrikar

CNN IBN also reports that licensed manufacturing option of Rafale in India by HAL has been halalled:

Centre scraps $20 billion MMRCA deal for 126 Rafale jets for IAF, LCA Tejas to replace MiG-21

From the looks of it, this 36 order deal was a "face-saving" gesture as the deal couldn't be canceled outright. But now the rest of the deal can be. IMO, there won't be any major purchase of Rafales in the future; maybe another government-to-government deal for another squadron (plus some extra reserves) but no more. A TOT deal for Rafale lifecycle support will be signed though.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 13 Apr 2015 20:56

For me this is a really really bad decision. But don't care two hoots about HAL. But Rafale the production of Rafale would have built up an entire manufacturing ecosystem which was to be leveraged by Tejas Mk2, AMCA and FGFA. That is gone forever.

We had the French with this deal, now they have us. Well played!

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 13 Apr 2015 20:57

This is a great decision. The MoD will take the money saved from the MMRCA contract and instead invest it into the Tejas program.

The idea that India would become a top-tier industrial power through ToT and offsets was always silly, in my opinion. No country will transfer its cutting-edge tech, regardless of the order size. (Even if that's promised, one way or another, the OEM will find a way to wiggle out of its commitments.) It's better to properly invest in one's indigenous programs. I am thrilled!

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 13 Apr 2015 21:01

After all the interviews/ tweets etc: what do we know about IAF Rafales post 36 ?

rohankumaon · Post by **rohankumaon** » 13 Apr 2015 21:06

indranilroy wrote: For me this is a really really bad decision

Not necessary Indranil..I think with this GOI has essentially scrapped the crappy MMRCA RFP that does not even allow to go to Eurofighter! Now there are whole lot of options on the table that includes TOT with different extents including the production of falcon business jets using the same assembly line and lowering the Rafale cost. This can also be now included with the technology for civil nuclear project or nuclear submarines

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Apr 2015 21:06

This is a great decision. The MoD will take the money saved from the MMRCA contract and instead invest it into the Tejas program.

The idea that India would become a top-tier industrial power through ToT and offsets was always silly, in my opinion. No country will transfer its cutting-edge tech, regardless of the order size. (Even if that's promised, one way or another, the OEM will find a way to wiggle out of its commitments.) It's better to properly invest in one's indigenous programs. I am thrilled!

If the highest cost being reported pans out its going to cost around $10 Billion for 63 odd aircraft. If you scale that cost up to the original 126 requirement, you are not very much off from the $20 Billion that was reported earlier. If I were to guess, the cost of actual TOT, investment into HAL and then producing the fighter in house would have significantly overshot the $20 Billion mark.

I had been saying that on TOT for a few years, its always better to acquire technology as an offset and use it on your own projects. You cant tick a Rafale AESA into the LCA, but you can work out advanced technology transfers in specific areas as an offset. That is how Japan and South Korea have used the offset clause as they sought thousands of man-hour work on various 5th generation design studies as part of their modest F-35 purchase (compared to 126 for the Rafale). They will use that along with other stuff in their own 5th generation design maturation. India could do the same as an offset with Dassault, thales and other sub-contractors.

After all the interviews/ tweets etc: what do we know about IAF Rafales post 36 ?

That more may be ordered. Only thing I am confused about is that they did not scrap the MRCA when they announced the 36. All they said was that they would continue to negotiate the MRCA separately. It would be highly unlikely in my opinion that they took the decision to scrap the MRCA over the last few days, I think they had that figured out by the time the G2G deal was announced.

srai · Post by **srai** » 13 Apr 2015 21:07

indranilroy wrote:For me this is a really really bad decision. But don't care two hoots about HAL. But Rafale the production of Rafale would have built up an entire manufacturing ecosystem which was to be leveraged by Tejas Mk2, AMCA and FGFA. That is gone forever.

We had the French with this deal, now they have us. Well played!

There wasn't that much money to begin with. If the original $20+ billion Rafale deal was signed, there wouldn't have been funds for anything else.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 13 Apr 2015 21:08

indranilroy wrote:For me this is a really really bad decision. But don't care two hoots about HAL. But Rafale the production of Rafale would have built up an entire manufacturing ecosystem which was to be leveraged by Tejas Mk2, AMCA and FGFA. That is gone forever.

We had the French with this deal, now they have us. Well played!

I disagree. I think it's the Tejas Mk. 2 which will be used to build up India's manufacturing eco-system. With a few exceptions (the U.S. engine, etc.), with the Tejas, there won't be a foreign government interfering regarding technology transfer, a foreign OEM scheming to sabotage a potential rival, and foreign employees worrying about training their competitors.