Agreed. Totallyrsangram wrote: Could India's Military Really Crush Pakistan?
India's conventional military superiority over Pakistan is exaggerated.
Walter C. Ladwig III
July 2, 2015
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/cou ... stan-13247
I am disgusted and speechless. And then we display such hubris...........it is unbelievable.....
On the other hand, consider what the message is. This is a reply to Krepon and such
The unspoken implications are that (1) it is Pakistan that is the source of the instability and (2) Pakistan's nuclear build-up is unwarranted and (3) Pakistan's nuclear build-up poses a threat to the West and so should meet with sanctions and such.South Asia remains an unstable region of the world, but the Indian military is not a source of that instability.
No realist ever though that there was a strictly military solution to the problems that Pakistan poses. Split off of Baluchistan and such like are much more possible and probable solutions.Ultimately Indian military leaders may have to accept, if they haven’t already, the very unpleasant reality that what is essentially a political problem—Pakistan’s continued desire to wrest Kashmir away from India and its army’s pathological hatred of “Hindustan”—may not be amenable to a strictly military solution.
Regarding hubris - I think both the Indian political leadership and the military leadership have a fairly objective assessment of what India can accomplish militarily and what it cannot. I'm not sure the same can be said about Pakistan. Pakistani belligerence coupled with an overestimation of its strength and a belief that sufficient faith in Allah can even override the laws of physics in favor of the momin is what makes them dangerous. All the victories of all the Muslim armies against infidels are mythologized into victories of the deeply faithful against overwhelming odds, and these guys actually believe these to be history. That is why even if India had a 100:1 military advantage, elements in Pakistan's military would still provoke a fight.
The Indian government has demonstrated an increased willingness to use force in an environment where headline grabbing increases in the Indian defense budget and a high-profile military modernization program are already alarming observers who worry that this could undermine the conventional military balance maintaining South Asia’s “ugly stability.” While on their face these concerns have validity, upon deeper examination, it is clear that, modernizing or not, the Indian military is capable of bringing far less force to bear in a limited conflict with Pakistan than most people realize. As a result, it is unlikely that Indian policymakers would conclude that they can either achieve strategic surprise against Pakistan necessary for a successful ground incursion or carry out highly-effective air strikes with little escalatory risk, each of which is a necessary condition for military operations to be authorized. Consequently, claims that India’s growing military power justifies Pakistan’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons, lack a firm foundation. South Asia remains an unstable region of the world, but the Indian military is not a source of that instability.
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