Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Jul 2015 11:41

gakakkad wrote:I have already rubbished the malnutrition data in the past...the studies cited were non existent or poorly done...totally fabricated garbage...

Ok. Links please.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Jul 2015 12:36

Modi Races to Avoid Billion-Person Demographic Mess in India

Among India’s 1.2 billion people, Shailendra Gupta can’t find enough drivers for his fleet of trucks.

It’s not for a lack of applicants: Every day a few people come to him looking to operate one of the dozens of 12-wheelers that are collecting dust on a dilapidated road in northern Delhi. The problem is that nobody is qualified.

“Getting skilled truck drivers has become a nightmare,” said Gupta, director of Caravan Roadways Ltd., who estimates that 15 percent of his 500 trucks nationwide are idle. “You can’t take the risk of plying heavy commercial vehicles with unprofessional drivers.”

The skills shortage affects professions across India, from plumbers and cooks to engineers and airline technicians. About 5 percent of Indian workers have had formal skills training, compared with 96 percent in South Korea and 80 percent in Japan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now racing to change that. He set up a new skills and entrepreneurship ministry shortly after taking office, and last week approved a policy to train 400 million workers by 2022 -- about eight times more on average per year than the previous government.

Without a quick turnaround, Modi risks squandering India’s biggest economic advantage: Its demographic dividend. His country now has more people under the age of 25 than the entire U.S. and Brazilian citizenry, and it’s forecast to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2028.

The average Indian will be 29 years old in 2020, compared with 40 in the U.S., 46 in Europe and 47 in Japan. In the next seven years, some 104 million people -- roughly the population of Philippines -- will join the workforce.

If those people have jobs, the whole world wins. If not, India loses its best chance to become an economic powerhouse.

“India has a large labor pool, but employability is a serious issue because appropriate skills aren’t there,” said Rajeev Malik, a senior economist at CLSA Singapore Ltd. Training is key to whether “the favorable demographic profile turns into a dividend or liability.”

Here’s Modi’s plan: Technology will help streamline standards and coordinate between 70 skills training programs now spread across 20 departments. Underutilized schools, colleges and post offices will become skilling centers. Former soldiers, bureaucrats and professionals will become trainers.

New “e-assessments” will test skills and biometrics will record attendance. Private sector bodies will help set standards. Closed-circuit television will ensure nobody cheats on tests. Every applicant will get a web-based “Skill Passport” to allow employers to verify credentials.

A new database will also be created to help match employers with skilled workers. Smartphones will provide links according to geographic areas. Funding will be given to private-sector companies to set up skilling centers. And companies will be asked to spend 2 percent of payroll costs on skills development.

“The new policy will lead to better norms, homogeneous rules and outcomes, and will need a strong monitoring process as well,” Sunil Arora, the ministry’s top bureaucrat, said in a written interview. “It will address key obstacles to skilling, including low aspirational value and lack of integration with formal education.”

Arora said private and state-run companies will help train school dropouts.

So, will it work?

If Modi’s predecessor is anything to go by, it won’t be easy. About a quarter of those who enrolled in skill development programs find employment, according to an initial study conducted in five states by the World Bank for the National Skill Development Agency, lawmakers were told in April.

The cost will also be enormous. The Skills Ministry estimates that 5 trillion rupees ($79 billion) is needed to train a quarter of a billion people in five years, and it wants the private sector to help pay. Many are skeptical.

“The government’s effort to push skill development is clearly inadequate,” said Bikky Khosla, chief executive officer of tradeIndia.com and chairman of the e-commerce committee of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. “Implementation in the states is very poor.”

Alstom India Ltd., DCM Shriram Ltd. and JCB India Ltd. are among many private companies that have confirmed they offer in-house training programs for employees. About 58 percent of India employers find difficulty filling positions, compared with 38 percent globally, according to ManpowerGroup’s 2015 talent shortage survey.

ramana: I will have to dig for it. It's been ages since I looked at that stuff.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 09 Jul 2015 13:23

Aditya_V wrote:Vina, Quite frankly given how many of authors of the reports and Hindu have been very economical with the truth. The samples could very well be skewed. You SC FC point then demolishes the caste discrimination argument then.

The tallest and richest 100 kids in BD will be better than the weakest and poorest 100 kids in Gujarat or Even USA.

If I am right the report was authored by one "JEAN DREAZE", the head of NAC(the un elected body) which ran India for 10 years, who said in 2014 how proud he was he destroyed India's economic growth which was so FASCIST.

I think it would better to compare with State govt or more unbiased statistics than this.

Do you have a link for this please?

member_29112 · Post by **member_29112** » 09 Jul 2015 13:39

vina wrote:Hmm. Saw an article in Al-Hundi I think 2 or 3 days ago about the recently published socio economic & caste survey and the UNICEF & GOI rapid survey of children . A couple of conclusions were eye popping.

2. Gujarat performs miserably in social indictors. It's child mortality, malnutrition and stunting rates cluster around all india average if I remember or worse.

False. Gujarat was the 'most improved state' wrt to Malnutrition during the period of 2007 and onwards.

Says the CAG report: "There was substantial decrease in the malnourished children in six states (Gujarat, from 71 to 39 percent); Karnataka (from 53 to 41 percent); Maharashtra (from 45 to 23 percent); Uttar Pradesh (from 53 to 41 percent); Uttarakhand (from 46 to 25 percent): and West Bengal (from 53 to 37 percent).

Source1

Wait. It gets better. "Every third child in Gujarat is underweight, says CAGl"
Source2

Wait. Isn't that bad? That depends. Malnutrition was at 39% during 2011. Now one in three is 33%, further down by 5-6% in two years.

Nobody is claiming Gujarat the best ever. But hey, Modi did try, and the results are visible.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 09 Jul 2015 14:26

gakkad, suraj, I know we are really imposing on you guys but even if it takes a while, I would also like to see something that puts some better context or rebuts the malnutrition issue.

Thanks for all your efforts.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Jul 2015 16:04

bihar seems to be in a class all by itself in the 2011 data with 82% malnourished and 25% severely.

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Jul 2015 16:24

bihar seems to be in a class all by itself in the 2011 data with 82% malnourished and 25% severely.

All the ill effects of 60 years of depredations by the Kangress and then the absolute disaster of the "Social Justice" champion , and then darling of the liberal sekoolar media, Lalu Prasad Yadav. If Bihar in its current state is AFTER 15 years of "improvement" under Nitish Kumar, I shudder to think how it was under the Kangress and Lalu.

Bihar and UP are India's heartlands. NY Times publishes an article about TN on how a state ruled by "Film Stars" would be like. By all accounts it has done great! Maybe what UP and Bihar needs is a lot of TLC from Amma!

UP too suffered from the ill effects of the Kangress mai-baap . But rather replacing it with something performs we have a long succession of Mulayams and Mayawatis, who seem supremely incompetent.

But that said, some of the stats are shocking if true. That is why I need some hard numbers. 1) Tax paying SC numbers in KA vs tax paying FC numbers in Gujarat . What is the MEDIAN income (not average) of KA and Gujarat ?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Jul 2015 16:51

vinaji:

So how did TN and KL come out so much better than the North Indian states, when at the resource allocation table, TN and esp. KL have had little clout and were routinely kicked in the teeth over the decades, whether by INC or BJP?

Basic education in Kerala was actually boosted by the Marxist Govt led by EMS circa 1966 onwards. They just said 'free and universal education up to SSLC' + very low fees through Pre-Degree. Budget was busted of course, and the schools had practically no facilities other than the govt-painted tile-roofed bldgs and some rudimentary test tubes and chemicals and glass prisms in the best ones, but the people turned out well-educated grads (OK, a decent percentage) who could pass the SSLC exam.

One big decision was that KL adhered to the 3-Language Formula while the notherners and the TN ppl (as protest) dissed it.

So I would say that the win for education in the south was a win for enlightened constitutional democracy, although it took a Marxist Communist govt to implement it. Mohammed Koya, Minister for Education in Kerala at that time, had a 3rd grade education (not 3rd-grade as in quality, 3rd-grade as in level reached b4 he had to drop out).

With all respect to ppl from the north, I have to comment that it was the failure to bring about equity, and ensure constitutional rights for all, that kept the North in this fine state of Pakistan-like backwardness, despite immense wealth and political power. Wonder what is the literacy rate and rates of malnutrition, infant mortality and adult stupidity in, say, Rae Bareili and Amethi, those most privileged of constituencies.

OTOH, in West Bengal the commies just destroyed all culture - they were commies at their commie worst. The KL commies were far more decent and far less corrupt (not enough big investors to squeeze, maybe). Many of the leaders of that time actually did live and die as they preached - simple and dedicated, though they were certainly angry people.

csaurabh · Post by **csaurabh** » 09 Jul 2015 17:43

UlanBatori wrote:
OTOH, in West Bengal the commies just destroyed all culture - they were commies at their commie worst. The KL commies were far more decent and far less corrupt (not enough big investors to squeeze, maybe). Many of the leaders of that time actually did live and die as they preached - simple and dedicated, though they were certainly angry people.

KL as a state is difficult to judge as a commie success story. This is because the entire economy of the state runs on Gulf money. Same is not true for WB.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Jul 2015 17:44

Sanjay wrote:gakkad, suraj, I know we are really imposing on you guys but even if it takes a while, I would also like to see something that puts some better context or rebuts the malnutrition issue.

Thanks for all your efforts.

there were many articles I had posted before a few years..

here is one by Arvind Panagriya...

Now panagriya is as TFTA as one can get...columbia brof , with

http://indianeconomy.columbia.edu/sites ... -final.pdf

The Myth of Child Malnutrition in India

Arvind Panagariya

A common continuing criticism of the economic reforms in India has been that despite
accelerated growth and all
-
around poverty reduction, the country continues to suffer from
child mal
nutrition that is worse than nearly all of the Sub Saharan African countries with
lower per
-
capita incomes. Nearly half of India’s under
-
five children are said to be
underweight and stunted. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently described the
problem as
‘a matter of national shame
.
’
I argue in this paper that this narrative, nearly
universally accepted around the world, is both false and counter
-
productive from the
viewpoint of policy formulation. It is purely an artifact of a faulty methodology that th
e
World Health Organization has pushed and the U
nited Nations has supported. If the
numbers are correctly done, in all likelihood, India will have no more to be ashamed of
its achi
evements in child nutrition than
vital statistics such as life expectancy,
infant
mortality and maternal mortality

besides that look at the massive improvement made by various states in IMR and MMR and female literacy in a short periods of time...

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... %20173.pdf

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... %20207.pdf

I have not done it , but if someone tries to do a regression analysis of improvements in social sector with GDP growth rate , you ll find strong correlations ...

w.r.t Kerala , as it has been pointed out dozens of times here , It was the most literate state at the time of independence . It had a literacy of 48% in 1950 , compared to rest of the countries rate at 18% in 1950....

from toilet

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/edit ... 329131.cms

Cracking the kerala myth

In 1951, it had a literacy rate of 47% compared with 18% for India as a whole and 28% for Maharashtra, the closest rival among the large states. By 2011, these rates had risen to 94, 74 and 83%, respectively. The gains made, thus, equal 47, 56 and 55 percentage points for Kerala, India and Maharashtra, respectively. Even Bihar, the poorest state in India, made a gain of 50 percentage points over the six decades, beating Kerala!

it is not the commies who made kerala's Indicators good...they were good to begin with at the time of independence...they had a head start over Bihar and rest of India.....

Mark my words...By 2030 Kerala will have been overtaken by 3-4 states in Literacy , MMR and IMR ...only place where it will retain its superiority is the sex ratio which is a severe socio-political problem in many Indian states...

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 09 Jul 2015 17:46

Thanks gakakkad

Yugandhar · Post by **Yugandhar** » 09 Jul 2015 17:50

district wise child mortality rate for India. Full article in the Lancet available here
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/langl ... xt?rss=yes

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Jul 2015 17:59

also look at the malnutrition table by hrsada ...

now I take all the malnutrition studies except those appearing in medical journals , with a bag full of salt as they have not been conducted by pediatricians etc and have actually been conducted by social science back ground people ... But one thing the study shows is that Kerala's Malnutrition has increased considerably over the last decade...

for various reasons I had mentioned before this is a sampling error...( like an error in standardising skin fold thickness , that Indians tend to have lower BMIs as a genetic predisposition etc , different growth patterns than europeans due to climate and genetic variations , Indians remain smaller till age of 5 than grow faster etc ,many factors have been described by Panagriya) ..

Whatever it is it shows that Kerala Model is a myth...they were superior to begin with and have simply maintained the lead rather than provide an alternative economic model...

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Jul 2015 18:01

Indeed Yugandhar...

Most of India is on track for meeting the millenium development goals..except some regions the Hindi belt...but they ll get through in due course of time...

All the statistics provided will put Vina's queries to a rest...

You can't utter Guj and sub saharan Africa in the same sentence when it comes to socio-economic indicators..

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Jul 2015 19:58

Speaking of false methodology and logic:

By 2011, these rates had risen to 94, 74 and 83%, respectively. The gains made, thus, equal 47, 56 and 55 percentage points for Kerala, India and Maharashtra, respectively. Even Bihar, the poorest state in India, made a gain of 50 percentage points over the six decades, beating Kerala!

er.. So if you reach 99% and then manage to push it to 99.5%, that is less than a 0.05% gain, vs. Pakistan starting at 0.3 percent and changing it to 0.6% which is a 100% gain.

There IS such a thing as non-linearity. As one gets up towards 100%, each 1percent becomes far harder to achieve than when one is at 0%. Literacy is achieved one person at a time, and if the same level of effort is not maintained, the next gen grows up stupider. So let's not diss those who manage to stay up there, hain? It ain't easy. If others are too stupid to see any 'alternative model' to what keeps them stupid, hey, that is what makes them stupid. Q.E.D. Sorry, but I see no excuse for the situation in UP and Bihar continuing the way it has been (and getting steadily worse) in inverse proportion to the rise in land value and associated rapid growth of resources. UP is going the Kashmir way, Bihar the Somalia/Baluchistan way.

Gulf money did not become a factor until the 1970s. Before that it was there, but miniscule and mostly with British companies. It was the Educated Unemployed that made KL attractive to Gelf body-shoppers vs. the illiterate unemployed that they could get from halal regions. And the unemployment was because the fine combo of Central Guvrmand Regulashuns (and corruption), and commie labor laws and gang rule (and corruption) made it insane to be an entrepreneur in KL unless one had the Church Mafia or the Muslim Mafia behind one.

So the Gelf wave was also rightfully creditable to the commies. B4 the commies, KL had the same hangups as Bihar etc. of social inequality and the curses that came from social stratification by fiat. It is the failure to eliminate these that keeps much of the Hindi belt at Paki-like realities. Most glaring of all is UP, home to Dilli, and Bihar, not far from Varanasi and home of Buddh Gaya!! WB was just destroyed by commie and now paki violence.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 09 Jul 2015 20:12

UlanBatori wrote:So the Gelf wave was also rightfully creditable to the commies. B4 the commies, KL had the same hangups as Bihar etc. of social inequality and the curses that came from social stratification by fiat.

You mean to say that the Gelf wave can be credited to the commies; because they pretty much ensured that an average educated Keralite has no chances to grow in Kerala ?

. KL had very deep rooted caste problems, but my understanding is that some far reaching changes (like Hindu temples open for all Hindus etc.) happened during the times of the kings itself? The commies now try to take credit of any social reform movement, by declaring the leaders who led the movement were commies. When many of these reforms happened CPI(M) or CPI were not even in existence, and many leaders were part of various factions of the Congress party only (eg: AK Gopalan, K.Kelappan or the Chinese supporter EMS Namboodirippad for that matter).

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Jul 2015 20:13

^^ I don't completely agree with the article..Just wanted to point that at independence kerala was already way ahead of the nation. The communist government did little to improve it..they received a good state to begin with..

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 09 Jul 2015 20:24

gakakkad wrote:^^ I don't completely agree with the article..Just wanted to point that at independence kerala was already way ahead of the nation. The communist government did little to improve it..they received a good state to begin with..

far reaching changes (like Hindu temples open for all Hindus etc.) happened during the times of the kings itself?

Sorry, but we in Mongolia have long memories though we may be reticent. It is perfectly true that people (like someone I know very well) left KL because to stay was to lose hope. BUT.. it is most definitely **NOT** true that the so-called Kings did anything to remedy the gross inequities, other than drowning all dissenters in the Vembanad Kayal with stones tied to their feet or having molten lead poured into their ears. Swami Vivekananda rightly called Kerala an Insane Asylum except that he should have called it a place RUN by the insane. No sympathy from moi for any of those, seen too much up close of the attitudes to have any doubts or illusions. YES! Better believe it. Credit the Marxist commies for upending that whole top-heavy nonsense. Even today one has to be careful going into some places because one is not entirely sure what the entry hangups are - they are worse than in the US Deep South.

Some of the Bihar burn-them-because-they-drank-water-out-of-OUR-Well culture may not be fashionable any more, but that is because the police are not controlled by the "Kings" and their flunkies any more.

vina · Post by **vina** » 09 Jul 2015 20:44

UlanBatori wrote:So the Gelf wave was also rightfully creditable to the commies. B4 the commies, KL had the same hangups as Bihar etc. of social inequality and the curses that came from social stratification by fiat. It is the failure to eliminate these that keeps much of the Hindi belt at Paki-like realities. Most glaring of all is UP, home to Dilli, and Bihar, not far from Varanasi and home of Buddh Gaya!! WB was just destroyed by commie and now paki violence.

I wonder what went right in TN. Sure the "Dravidian" movement was anti caste in name only, but was rather anti brahmin , with the aim not the the dismantling of social inequality, but rather, replacing one set of them with the other. TN to this day has pretty rigid caste barriers and inequalities , probably not as crude as the Hindi belt, but nowhere as neat as KL either.

TN lucked out because it had decent leadership. Kamaraj started off the noon meal scheme. I saw a handout /phamplet/email news letter from Akshaya Patra which quoted an incident in a remote place in the 60s in Chernmadevi in TN, when Kamaraj saw a boy grazing cattle in the afternoon and asked him why was he not in school , the boy replied, if I don't graze cattle, who will feed me ! That set him thinking that you can't learn on an empty stomach. That set the noon meal scheme started, which of course was expanded and made universal by MGR, and then refinenments such as eggs and milk by Dr Artiste/DMK. Again MGR opened out the self financing colleges route.. sure, every hamlet in TN pretty much is connected with a regular bus service to the nearest town, has a functioning Primary Health Center and a school that actually educates the kids. Also family planning took off (purists will argue in the wrong by by tubectomy alone, but with low infant mortality and higher education, small families became the norm) thanks to a Family Planning Ayatollah called T.V Anthony who I think was the Chief Secretary. My dad (a doctor) remembers him as a witty and funny man, who always introduced himself as "I am T. V Anthony i.e Tubectomy Vasectomy Anthony" ! So in a convoluted way, spades of credit for TN's indicators go to two Mallus, M.G Ramachandran Menon and T.V Anthony!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 09 Jul 2015 21:24

I think we should look at it from the positive angle. All indicators are improving substantially. The laggards are catching up. I think some Keralites will loose their bragging rights in the next 15-20 yrs (I am being conservative) and the Commies have to think of something new to justify their existence (assuming the Commies had a role in KL coz all non-leftist Bengalies feel that the Commies killed education in WB). In WB their bragging is about land reforms.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 09 Jul 2015 21:42

gakakkad wrote:^^ I don't completely agree with the article..Just wanted to point that at independence kerala was already way ahead of the nation. The communist government did little to improve it..they received a good state to begin with..

Saar, I wouldn't go down that route. The same could be said of GJ.

Kerala did an admirable job educating ist population and dealing with nutrition and womens rights. For all my ridicule of the commie's this is one thing they did get right.

Supratik wrote:I think we should look at it from the positive angle. All indicators are improving substantially. The laggards are catching up. I think some Keralites will loose their bragging rights in the next 15-20 yrs (I am being conservative) and the Commies have to think of something new to justify their existence (assuming the Commies had a role in KL coz all non-leftist Bengalies feel that the Commies killed education in WB). In WB their bragging is about land reforms.

I don’t think so. It will take many generations of effort to catch up. Keral will still continue to reap benefits for many future generation. Long after we are gone. I said it in the other thread but the years of education are substantially higher in KL vs CG. Not even in the same country right now. Literacy is just the first basic rung after all.

Having extensively visited and having family in both Kerala & CG/MP. CG/MP is regrettably many generations behind. Catch up is going on but it is terribly slow at present. Large chunks of the population, it seems like 60%+ in the heartland are still almost tribal/feudal in approach and treatment of women.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 09 Jul 2015 21:55

look at any indicator.. Guj was amongst the poorest regions in 1950s to 1980s..regions of panchmahal were as bad as UP/Bihar till recently...there still exist pockets that are as poor...but reducing gradully ....people forget that Gujarat has a massive tribal population ...and many remote areas...there is guj beyond the 6 well known urban formations...

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 09 Jul 2015 22:10

I did not want to wade into this debate Gujarat vs Kerala model, and others have solidly backed up the arguments why Kerala is where it is. As regards, Kerala had a lead over other states at the time of independence itself maybe a valid point, but have people cared to understand where this magical lead came from by the 1950s itself. There was no capitalism even then in Kerala from what I gather, for lack of a good word for me to describe the economy of those times. It was very much agrarian and poor by all means. Before we go to squash this so called myth of the Kerala model one needs to understand the reasons for this gigantic launch even before independence.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 09 Jul 2015 22:33

gakakkad wrote:look at any indicator.. Guj was amongst the poorest regions in 1950s to 1980s..regions of panchmahal were as bad as UP/Bihar till recently...there still exist pockets that are as poor...but reducing gradully ....people forget that Gujarat has a massive tribal population ...and many remote areas...there is guj beyond the 6 well known urban formations...

I don't think so. I mean the same could be said of any state in India.

Take a look at this 1991 education chart of GJ, Gujarat already 72.3% Male literacy. Though Kerala was already streets ahead.
https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/bs_viewc ... d=2359#T19

Or this 1961 chart of infant mortality. GJ already down to 81 vs TN @ 89 and KL much better at 55. Vs UP @ 131.
https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/bs_viewc ... d=2359#T20

or this poverty rate from 1983. Time I’m most familiar with. Even then inside GOI GJ was considered a model/sterling state back then, while TN was a basket case, one step from Bihar, below UP.
Don't get me wrong GJ has done very well but it was always a well run state and it has maintained that position.

I think Gujarati’s have always been more progressive and capable than you give them credit for.
-----------------------------

Bade saar,

this is very much an argument that needs to be made. There is this mythology that one can copy development models. I think the states of India have proved that every state is different and every state needs its own model of what works.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 09 Jul 2015 22:52

In the RBI data posted by Theo above, the table on gender literacy difference shows Mizoram is challenging Kerala closely. Yes, women's education is important for overall health of the nation. Mizoram is no heavyweight like Goa or Punjab. So it definitely is the social factors contributing to this positive effect, social factors and literacy go hand in hand in a positive feedback loop.

disha · Post by **disha** » 09 Jul 2015 23:28

gakakkad wrote: You can't utter Guj and sub saharan Africa in the same sentence when it comes to socio-economic indicators..

Vina'ji., when you utter Guj and Sub-Saharan Africa in the same sentence w.r.t socio-economic indicators - I *will* have to bring Uganda into the debate!

So unless you want Uganda in the debate., please refrain from posting links from jean druize and the al-hundi folks. In your post, I lost it the moment you mentioned al-hundi. This is a serious thread and please do not derail thread by planting IEDs.

BTW - do pay a visit to the Kutch district of Gujarat. Kutch nahi dekha toh kuch nahin dekha. Last heard it was as big as Kerala.

Now the reason I came to this thread is to post this:

http://www.firstpost.com/business/china ... 34326.html

Not completely agree with the above article., but has an interesting argument.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Jul 2015 01:42

spades of credit for TN's indicators go to two Mallus, M.G Ramachandran Menon and T.V Anthony!

TN had a lot of very honest, very hard-working, extremely competent guvrmand officials. Bureaucratic, yes, but they spared no effort and did things by the book.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 10 Jul 2015 01:54

^^^
I agree. It was no accident as Vina saar said. Lot of back breaking hard work was done. Kudos to them.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 10 Jul 2015 02:13

Kutchis were/are traders, and like the gulf crowd would go anywhere to make a living. Coastal people are entrepreneurs usually.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Jul 2015 02:24

Crude oil slump to cut subsidies by Rs 35,000 cr ($5.1 billion)

With oil price at below $60 a barrel and benefits of decontrolled diesel and petrol fully realised, the Narendra Modi-led government is likely to see windfall savings of between Rs 30,000-35,000 crore on combined major subsidies in April-June quarter of 2015-16, Business Standard has learnt.

The outgo for major subsides, which includes fuel, food, and fertiliser subsidies, is traditionally the highest in the first quarter (April-June) of any given financial year, as it includes pending payments and outlays for carried over subsidy demands. With subsidy numbers for April and May already available for the fiscal planners, senior government sources seem confident that the trends for the first quarter, and indeed the whole financial year, in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) reduction in the subsidy bill, look promising. Sources say the total combined major subsidies for the first two months of the current financial year was around Rs 49,557 crore. That is a whole Rs 21,693 crore or around 30 per cent less than Rs 71,250 crore in major subsidy outlays for April and May of 2014-15.

India's 7.5% growth spurt in 2015 & 2016 to surpass China's

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday reaffirmed its growth forecast for India in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), pegging growth at 7.5 per cent in both 2015 and 2016. Earlier, the World Bank too had projected India to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2015.

With China expected to slow down considerably, the IMF pegs its growth at 6.8 per cent in 2015 and 6.3 per cent in 2016, the gap between the two countries is likely to widen to 1.2 percentage points by 2016.

In its latest WEO, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth, indicating the fragile state of the world economy. It has pegged global GDP growth at 3.3 per cent in 2015, lower than its April outlook of 3.5 per cent. Though in 2016, it expects growth to bounce back to 3.8 per cent.

Govt to create 5 mn jobs in highways, shipping: Gadkari

Government is committed to providing jobs to at least five million people in highways and shipping sectors where it plans to undertake massive projects worth Rs 6 lakh crore, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said today.

Besides, the government is working towards a Rs 22,000 crore project to provide connectivity between India and Sri Lanka for which the Asian Development Bank has expressed willingness to provide funding, he said.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Jul 2015 04:10

"connectivity between India and Sri Lanka"

Hanuman kind or Vanara Sena kind?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Jul 2015 04:12

UlanBatori wrote:"connectivity between India and Sri Lanka"

Hanuman kind or Vanara Sena kind?

Hanuman kind would already be there, no?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 10 Jul 2015 05:12

A good comparison with Kerala would be Sri Lanka. I think both had similar stats when the British left.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 10 Jul 2015 05:29

UlanBatori wrote:"connectivity between India and Sri Lanka"

Hanuman kind or Vanara Sena kind?

Vanar Sena + AhiRavan kind

Bridge + undersea tunnel, so as not to impede ship traffic

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2015 08:08

Kakkaji wrote:A good comparison with Kerala would be Sri Lanka. I think both had similar stats when the British left.

Hmm. So it must be the cuisine ! Both the places have very similar cooking and dishes!

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2015 08:53

Theo_Fidel wrote:

Wow! Where did you get this table from ? And if this table is accurate, the fall in poverty rates from 1983 to 2009in TN has been astounding. This is far better than anything the Chinese have been able to do. Some 30% to 40% drop in poverty in a span of 25 years is stunning. The past 15 to 20 years have been really really good for TN.

West Bengal also has turned in pretty impressive poverty reduction performance. However, the other indicators in WB somehow doesn't seem to have kept pace despite all the commie talk.

The good news seems to be that poverty is dropping pretty quickly all over India, the next big drops will come out of BIMAROU, because of the base effect and the other social indicators are improving as well.

However, the BIMAROU needs a special push and focus . Even within states, like in KA for e.g., I would suspect that the data for the Bangalore-Mysore belt and the Coastal Karanataka belt would cluster with TN and KL or even do better, but KA's averages would be dragged down to current levels because of the distress in north KA and the Hyderabad-KA areas . North KA and these areas which probably don't even exist in anyones imagination in these parts of KA need special focus too.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Jul 2015 12:26

TN has been able to industrialize in a distributed manner and create millions of non-farming jobs as water table is lowest avg in country. tirupur is one example, nammakal transport hub is another.

look at network of NH in TN..there are really no dark territory.

500 engg schools and 1000s diploma institutes hum with activity training people.

cut to bihar, even for the really talented students it must be a slog to get anywhere, forget the masses.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 10 Jul 2015 12:55

Even within MH, there is wide disparity between regions. The regions of MH adjoining AP, KA are amongst the poorest. I personally apply an unscientific measure of leg diameter of the farmers/labourers moving on the village streets. You can go to Sangli or Wai and then go to Solaur/Afzalpur-KA, the difference is stark.

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2015 13:00

cut to bihar, even for the really talented students it must be a slog to get anywhere, forget the masses.

Odisha seems to have done phenomenally well too. With around 40% cut in poverty rates. However, since they started at the highest level, they still seem to have a ways to go.

If you see the table, in TN's case, in 1983, its poverty levels were above the national average (green areas are below average), it fell below that in 1993 and has continued falling since then more strongly.

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2015 13:28

look at network of NH in TN..there are really no dark territory.

Yeah. The road network in TN is pretty solid. Even when I drown down from BLR to places down south (madurai and beyond), I am stunned at the transformation that has happened. One horse / one street towns like Karur, Namakkal, etc are transformed beyond recognition, with clean nice pucca houses visible as you flash past on the highway .

Salem, takes my breath away. As I kid I used to remember the torturous 12 hour bus rides from Bangalore to Madurai (my dad worked for the TN Govt and ran the public health system in the southern districts of TN) as there were no direct trains back then, with my grandma to visit my parents and Salem used to be a place where the bus stopped at 1:30 or so in the morning and a place you got do to do su-soo. A rundown terrible place back then, and now I can't believe it. It is true for all the places in that route.. Hosur, Salem, Namakkal, Dindigul. Even random places like Vellore etc look fine now. And even places like Kumbakonam in one of the most fertile stretches of the Kaveri , where roads date back to Chola days and snake all over the place from village to village and almost never direct, now have bypasses everywhere and you don't have to drive through the heart of the town/city.

Contrast that with Karnataka. The politico jackasses can't build a proper road between Bangalore to Mysore. No sir. It is that same two lane road of my childhood upgraded to 4 lane, with more speed bumps than open stretches and no bypasses for any of the towns and villages on the way from Bidadi, Ramnagaram, Chennapatna, Maddur , Mandya.. nothing. A horrendous traffic mess with traffic jams stretching horizon to horizon on long weekends and what should 2 hrs max, taking anywhere between 6 to 8 hours to even 12 hours on even bad days.

And on top of this the Chief Minister, announces that they are building bypasses now (after all these years). Don't bet on it. It is the Vokkaliga political heartland. No way they can get it done to even acquire an inch of land. I think Mysore-Mandya needs to get back its prodigal daughter (Jayalalitha) back from Chennai to fix it. A touch of Amma's tough TLC will get even knotty issues like that ironed out like in Kumbakonam.

Leprosy used to be endemic in TN. Dad (a dermatologist) told me sometime ago that in TN , it is largely eradicated now and the he hardly seen any new case of it in the last 7 years or so. This when he used to have dozens of such cases per day in the 70s and 80s. I believe that as part of the National Leprosy Mission, all India, leprosy has been largely controlled /eradicated. Don't know for sure. But anecdotal evidence is that atleast in TN, it is firmly going the way of Polio and Small Pox