Harpal Bector wrote:
Perhaps it is dhoti-shivering as you say - perhaps not.
The key thing IMO for all this "India-Pakistan standoffing" stuff is that it is a game of ladders.
You can "win" this game by climbing up the ladder before the other side. The Pakistanis so far have based their national defense ideas (which btw lacks any depth whatsoever financially or politically or legally or physically) on the ability to escalate faster than India. Whether it is in the conventional arena with their short supply lines east of the Indus or in the WMD arena with their Chinese missiles, Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action. The Grandmasters of Suhrawardy Street in the days past have sacrificed many Pakistani and Indian lives to make this point - over and over again. This is the cornerstone of Pakistan's national defense.
With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder? After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder? and the only option for the Grandmaster would be to create a test provocation.
Now the real skill (again IMO) here is the ability to create an illusion of a much greater provocation while ensuring that no grounds for an escalation takes place.
There are many sub-questions - how long does Modiji take to penetrate the fog of war? how long does the actual decision take? etc.. etc... but there is the option for more provocations specifically tailored to the needs of the questions.
I am very concerned with the line of argument presented above. It does appear that Harpal'ji has insights into the GOI machinery and given his posts., I have to take back my words and agree with Shiv saar that the GOI all the way to the top is clueless on how to tackle the baki menace.
It is evident that the GOI including Modi Sarkar is searching for roots and missing the entire forest.
Here is the first line of thought that I completely disagree...
After the Myanmar raid and the new Tweetia's comments, clearly the Pakistanis could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed the case. At that point the only question would be - how fast will India climb up the ladder?
Bakistan has no locus standi on what India does on its Burmese border. The analogy is straightforward., if America takes a hot pursuit on its Mexican border it does not affect any policy on its Canadian border or has no effect on Canadian' escalation process.
To give a room to Bakistan's escalation process based on India's response on its Burmese border is illogical if not outright criminal.
This takes the cake for its illogical line of thought - since it ignores history.
With the arrival of Modiji in 7RCR and god-only-knows-who walking around the residence, the Pakistanis are within their rights to ask - has the Indian approach to escalations changed? has India decided that it wants to be the first up the ladder?
Modi on his arrival at 7RCR did change the approach to escalations - he clearly extended an olive branch right at his swearing in and also pointed out that the in the din of gunfire, one cannot hear the talks. Further, bakis did test the escalation matrix - the old firing at border posts was immediately and locally responded and further escalation of talking to Hurryrats lead to cancellation of further talks.
I am very concerned that an attempt is being made to paint the bakis as rational and controlled persons while the Indians as irrational and reactionary. If Bakistan is really interested in talks, why do they have to provoke and climb up the escalation matrix (I am calling it a matrix rather than a singular ladder) every now and then? What has their climb up the escalation matrix resulted in? From PM level talks to NSA level talks!
Is that what bakistan wants? Diplomatically when Modi has equal level talks with Barrack or Xi or Putin., here we have our own rabid neighbour with shared culture and history reduced to NSA level talks after much cajoling and prodding and pressure from the 3.5 sponsors of Bakistan.
Isnt' this an immediate demonstration of the Indian approach to escalation?
I have to bring this in
Pakistan's only hope for defending against a vastly superior India is the ability to jump high up on the escalation ladder and deter India from hostile action.
So you do agree that the latest pig attack in Punjab was a jump up on the escalation ladder., akin to opening a new front in Punjab since there is limited avenue of escalation in J&K.
And you further argue that "Pakistan has to jump high and immediate on escalation ladder to deter India from hostile action". Have you ever wondered why India has to take a hostile action against bakistan? Why should it deter India from hostile action if it has to live and prosper in peace?
And that is exactly the point at BRF we argue that bakistan has no intention to live and prosper in peace. Its only intention is to destroy India and always be at war with India in all means possible.
Now coming to evidence of pigs attack in Punjab. You mention that unfortunately no terrorist was caught alive. Interesting piece of argument. Is it your assumption that at least one such terrorist should be caught alive so that India can prove beyond reasonable doubt that bakistan is sponsor of terrorist pig?
What happened in 26/11 when with significant costs and a very high price paid by Omble a pig was caught and lead straight to bakistan? Oh an opportunity wasted? By Shuja?
Since on 26/11., let me tell you one thing - even a 10 year old kid knows that if the perpetrator is called out for a meeting to be presented with incontrovertible proof., the perpetrator *will not* come. Thus proving its guilt. And if MMS gobermund could not game what a 10 yr old logically games - then it is not a question of missed opportunity but the naivety and the irrelevance of the MMS gobermund.
Now do you want a similar situation with the current attack. Here we caught your terrorist (our Ombles died, but here we caught them alive)... now it proves that you bakis are terrorist sponsors. Next what?
In any murder scene, the first is circumstantial evidence. The pigs had NVG. The pigs had millitary class GPS. The pigs had advanced arms and ammunition. The NVG was sourced from US. The GPS was switched on right inside the Indian border. The attack was 26/11 style. There were multiple teams. Is it your case that somehow the NVG from US wiggled its way through taliban into the hands of the drug mafia and they sourced advanced arms and ammunition - shouting allah-o-akbar to propagate more drugs? In a small town?
I understand that it will be difficult for you to stand up and say to the PM that here "we have got 100% proof that bakistan is behind the attack and there cannot be any deniability from bakistan"., and the point is that no such "100% proof (or 400% proof if you like)" exists when terrorist states like bakistan indulge in terrorism - their whole reason for existence is to terrorize.
Since the recent attack in Punjab quacked like bakis, walked like bakis, flew (or waddled around) like bakis - the terrorists are bakis. This is something you can confidently state to the PMO.
Given that bakistan is a terrorist state and will remain so and actually become even more rabid state with controlling powers being the Allah, Army and America (not necessarily in that order as well) - what should the Indian response be?
I would like to hear your thoughts on Indian response rather than see your effort in proving this attack emanated from bakistan or not. I do think that you have very important and precise insights to share on what Indian response can be or should be or must be.