Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-July 10, 2015

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 Aug 2015 22:08

Jhujar wrote:
RajeshA wrote:quote="shiv"]What we need is something spectacularI would say, list=1]
[*] a robust and visible Indian attack on Pakistani Army's official assets, possibly capturing some territory, PLUS [*] an inordinately spectacular and painful but deniable attack on Pakistani Army and their Sarkari Jihadis using freelance Jihadi groups in the region, [/list]would be appropriate.quote]
Take Gilgit to punish terrorist Girgit , we need to start encroaching territory in Gilgit Baltistan. Encourage Afghan forces to do same.

Not simple, violate LOC diplomatically and internally we loose the plot. Besides we dont have the convention strength. It takes 15 years tp build conventional capabilities with local manufacture to overwhelm enemy.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 14 Aug 2015 22:11

Like Peshawar APS the targets must be selected correctly to inflict maximum pain. Pakis only understand this language and there are enough jihadis in porkistan to do this.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 14 Aug 2015 22:12

A_Gupta wrote:The primary graph we have to draw is one of Pakistani aggression against India. How to construct a single measure is difficult, from successful infiltrations, failed infiltrations, number of casualties, various terrorist attacks, firing across LoC, etc. etc.. Let's say we manage to do that. Maybe a crude measure of simply counting the number of incidents, whatever their severity, might be sufficient. We might be surprised and find that it is a fairly level curve with no significant peaks and valleys, in which case we'd have to explain our perceptions that Pakistani aggression has waxed and waned. The curve might simply follow the seasons, with lulls in winter and peaks in later summer. Beyond seasonality, if there are peaks and valleys in this graph, we could try to correlate to the situation in Afghanistan, the internal security situation in Pakistan, the economic situation in Pakistan, etc. etc.

Don't know why, but this makes me think of a dog I once had.

He was a small-sized dog, a punk of a dog you might say.

Most of the time, he was friendly enough--wagged his tail, played with the kids etc.

But sometimes, when he was feeling particularly good, he would bite someone.

And also, at other times, when he was feeling threatened--someone scolding him, or fatakas going off on dipavali, or whatever--he would also bite someone.

His bites were kind of pathetic and mostly a source of amusement for the family, especially the kids. Being small and punk-y, he couldn't do much damage. Even the neighborhood cats thought he was a joke and would taunt him, scratching him at will.

He was generally a failed dog--he would routinely ignore petty thieves and pilferers but chase off the postman. He was even a failure at protecting his own food bowl from marauding cats.

He was a parasite--he ate our food, used our services (walks, vet visits etc.) but delivered no tangible value.

He lived and died without ever realizing that he was a parasite and a joke. For some unexplainable human reason, we loved him anyway and mourned him.

I now wonder if I should have constructed a graph of his biting pattern.

Happy Independence Day and Jai Hind, all.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Aug 2015 22:12

shiv wrote: Arun I have not figured out the purpose of this graph - simply because I have myself frequently referred to data which can be put in graphical format and I don't know what parameters you want to include as aggression.

I think a lot has changed over the last 70 years, so the time period I'm interested in is the last 7-8 years. There is some measure of the volume and severity of Pakistani acts or attempted acts of violence against India during this period that I want to quantify and then plot, say month-wise, for the last 7 years. I want to first check, is there a variation in this measure that goes beyond seasonal? If there is, I want to make hypotheses, e.g., (a silly one) like Pakistani aggression falls in the two months leading up to a IMF release of money, and escalates following that, and be able to check the hypotheses against the graph.

That is a rough idea that I want to do. To winnow through the world of hypotheses much faster, I'd collect a lot of data that might be relevant and see if a machine learning algorithm comes up with a good predictive pattern. If it does, then I'd try to understand what it is that the machine learning has uncovered.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Aug 2015 22:18

KLNMurthy wrote: I now wonder if I should have constructed a graph of his biting pattern.

I think you're missing the concept of "significance" Your story said that your dog's bites were of no consequence, even to the neighborhood cats. I doubt anyone here would say that Pakistan's bites have no consequence. Indians get killed or injured, and soldiers, police endure hazardous duties. Pakistan's attacks on India are of significance, and effort to understand the "why of the when" of these attacks may be worthwhile, unlike understanding your dog's biting habits.

That is, we believe Pakistan's hostility to India is constant, so then why do attacks happen at a varying pace? (which we believe they do). Apart from seasonality (e.g., difficulty in infiltrating J&K when there is snow) are there any other factors that we can identify?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 14 Aug 2015 22:27

RajeshA wrote: ...

Overt military to military arena is an escalation ladder. Also invites too many world powers. Also helps Pakistan get Muslim support everywhere - Muslims under attack by evil Kafir.

...

I know pakis believe this, but is that really true as far as Muslim solidarity for pakistan is concerned? There were some noises from some Muslim countries in '71 I believe, and Shah's Iran provided strategic depth to PAF IIRC. But long-term, have Muslims worldwide or Muslim countries gone out of their way to harm India because of India beating up on Pakistan?

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Aug 2015 22:29

Shreeman wrote:Look here is an idea, open egg-zactly 1,000 consulates in Eyeran (now with neu nukular treaty all good with the wesht) and afghanistan --500 each, separated by 10 kilometers equally. Operashunalize chahbahar and roads all the way to that tiny tip that extends into gilgit/baltistan.

Capital idea, especially the part about reaching Gilgit/Baltistan from the other end (I thought that the UPA's original plan with Chahbahar before it was obvious that UPA's only plan was to GUBO to the US). Maybe it will sink into Ghani's head by that time that Pakistan is not anyone's ally against terrorism..

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 14 Aug 2015 22:30

A_Gupta wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote: I now wonder if I should have constructed a graph of his biting pattern.
I think you're missing the concept of "significance" Your story said that your dog's bites were of no consequence, even to the neighborhood cats. I doubt anyone here would say that Pakistan's bites have no consequence. Indians get killed or injured, and soldiers, police endure hazardous duties. Pakistan's attacks on India are of significance, and effort to understand the "why of the when" of these attacks may be worthwhile, unlike understanding your dog's biting habits.

That is, we believe Pakistan's hostility to India is constant, so then why do attacks happen at a varying pace? (which we believe they do). Apart from seasonality (e.g., difficulty in infiltrating J&K when there is snow) are there any other factors that we can identify?

Take it easy, I just felt like introducing a little levity, that's all. I understand Pakistan is quite a different animal than my late beloved dog.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Aug 2015 22:38

A_Gupta wrote: Apart from seasonality (e.g., difficulty in infiltrating J&K when there is snow) are there any other factors that we can identify?

Some of the factors identified over the years were (a) pakistan being pressure on the US's GOAT in afghanisthan -- raising temperature on the LoC provided them with an excuse to not send paki troops to fight for the US in afghanisthan. More generally, raising the temperature with the Indian border provides an excuse to claim they are "stretched too thin.

(b) visit of foreign dignitaries or other people pakistan thinks will help "solve kashmir" -- chattisinghpora and border firings increase at such times.

(c) peace moves made by paki politicians (for whatever reasons) without consulting the paki army -- used to happen in the past, but not so much these days.

(d) pakis deciding to create proxy groups in India so they can create terrorism in India in a deniable way, and so they create some societal conflict to aid in the recruiting of locals who harbour greivances.

In general, the paki army finds it easier to create mayhem and yell Kashmir to distract their jihadi hordes from their real problems. Committing terrorism in India, or economic warfare (fake notes) or mayhem (like Godhra) is a general "solution" to the pakis whenever they find the going difficult internally.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Aug 2015 22:58

KLNMurthy wrote:
RajeshA wrote: ...

Overt military to military arena is an escalation ladder. Also invites too many world powers. Also helps Pakistan get Muslim support everywhere - Muslims under attack by evil Kafir.

...
I know pakis believe this, but is that really true as far as Muslim solidarity for pakistan is concerned? There were some noises from some Muslim countries in '71 I believe, and Shah's Iran provided strategic depth to PAF IIRC. But long-term, have Muslims worldwide or Muslim countries gone out of their way to harm India because of India beating up on Pakistan?

All our wars with Pakistan were before Islam turned into "Islamists without boundaries" and "digital Islam". Yes we can counter that too if we all adopt the Kshatriya way of the ancient times, but as things stand, Bharat in its current avatar, i.e. India, may bite off more than we can chew, and invite a Muslim uprising within and without. There are enough countries in the world willing to finance this uprising - from China to USA. After all money talks. Without money pouring in, I don't think that there would be too much of an uprising. But money would most definitely pour in, of that I am quite certain. If people are willing to bankroll idiots like Kejri, then they would lap up such a opportunity.

I think we have a better option - Hit hard enough that it pains, but silently enough that Pakis can't raise stink.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Aug 2015 23:03

RajeshA wrote: All our wars with Pakistan were before Islam turned into "Islamists without boundaries" and "digital Islam".

+1. One of the key changes in strategic environment.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 14 Aug 2015 23:09

KLNMurthy wrote:[...
Don't know why, but this makes me think of a dog I once had.

He was a small-sized dog, a punk of a dog you might say.

Most of the time, he was friendly enough--wagged his tail, played with the kids etc.

But sometimes, when he was feeling particularly good, he would bite someone.

And also, at other times, when he was feeling threatened--someone scolding him, or fatakas going off on dipavali, or whatever--he would also bite someone.

His bites were kind of pathetic and mostly a source of amusement for the family, especially the kids. Being small and punk-y, he couldn't do much damage. Even the neighborhood cats thought he was a joke and would taunt him, scratching him at will.

He was generally a failed dog--he would routinely ignore petty thieves and pilferers but chase off the postman. He was even a failure at protecting his own food bowl from marauding cats.

He was a parasite--he ate our food, used our services (walks, vet visits etc.) but delivered no tangible value.

He lived and died without ever realizing that he was a parasite and a joke. For some unexplainable human reason, we loved him anyway and mourned him.

I now wonder if I should have constructed a graph of his biting pattern.

Happy Independence Day and Jai Hind, all.

So many Indian politicians come to mind when reading this.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 14 Aug 2015 23:10

RajeshA wrote: ,,,

All our wars with Pakistan were before Islam turned into "Islamists without boundaries" and "digital Islam". Yes we can counter that too if we all adopt the Kshatriya way of the ancient times, but as things stand, Bharat in its current avatar, i.e. India, may bite off more than we can chew, and invite a Muslim uprising within and without. There are enough countries in the world willing to finance this uprising - from China to USA. After all money talks. Without money pouring in, I don't think that there would be too much of an uprising. But money would most definitely pour in, of that I am quite certain. If people are willing to bankroll idiots like Kejri, then they would lap up such a opportunity.

I think we have a better option - Hit hard enough that it pains, but silently enough that Pakis can't raise stink.

You may be right that things changed now with the advent of global / digital Islam etc. But I still have a hard time picturing Al Qaeda or Islamic State or whoever rising up in wrath against India because we hit Pakistan. I am not saying that they don't generally want to subjugate us Yindoos on principle, because that's what they are supposed to do as Islamists, but I am not sure that they would treat an attack on pakistan as a special provocation by kafirs.

Anyway, I think we have in Pakistan, about the worst case scenario of Muslim predators against India, and we don't need to stay our hand against Pakistan just because of fears of arousing the wrath of global ummah. Nuclear armed low-IQ punky haters harboring fantasies of subjugating Yindoos is what we have now, and any additional risks are just marginal IMO.

.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 14 Aug 2015 23:24

I really doubt there will be any OIC support for Pakistan in its ventures.
The reason is as below:

India's oil procurement from the Middle East.
There is a window of opportunity while Pakistan has been blacklisted by one of its masters...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Aug 2015 02:08

KLNM, thanks for the dog story. Made me smile after a long time.
Also you are back in your element!

A-Gupta, If you are looking for a single variable to correlate Pak terrorist attacks on India, I suggest US bonhomie with Pakistan. Secondary factor would be US pressure on India to talk to Pakistan.

First factor, when ever tSP is in good books of US it attacks India. Sort of feel good like the dog.

Second factor, when ever US demands India to talk to tSP, again it attacks for it ears disputes becoming settled and have to give up Army primacy-kabila issues.

So talks get called off.

NaMo has figured it out and says talks to proceed.

So we need to see bigger fallout.

Rohit_K · Post by **Rohit_K** » 15 Aug 2015 06:37

A section of the newly built Karakoram Highway by PRC in PoK has collapsed. Sorry for posting in-line.

Photo Credits: Sajad Rumi Ghalapan
https://www.facebook.com/sajad.rumi

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Aug 2015 06:50

RajeshA wrote: All our wars with Pakistan were before Islam turned into "Islamists without boundaries" and "digital Islam".

That is an insightful observation.

But Pakistan has tried to convert war against Pakistan into war against Islam. That was always the sales pitch used by Pakistan to scare India into not attacking Pakistan because India desired to keep its own Muslims in peace. The idea was that if Pakistan was attacked, Muslims and Islam were being attacked and it showed Hindu India's real intentions towards Islam and Muslims and Muslims in India would have to take Pakistan's side for their own survival and the survival of Islam.

Entities like Al Qaeda did not have India on their agenda until their dying days when Pakistan infused them with strength in exchange for including India in the war that Pakistan wanted Islam to fight.

ISIS has the West Asia, Iran and Europe on its agenda. In any case it is not centralized - it is fragmented and multi-headed. It's role against India is welcomed by the Paki army Pakistan who will try and support ISIS in Afghanistan as long as Afghanistan can be destabilized and used against India. ISIS in Afghanistan is an advantage for Pakistan because the sucker Americans will keep on funding the Pakis and then Pakis can keep on sending more and more sophisticated and well trained commandos into India.

Pakistan is likely to be fairly busy on its North west border for some more time - although it appears to be dominating now due to operation ZamZam. This is a good time to make its eastern border with India really hot. If Pakistan has to move troops towards India they will start losing battles in the North West and the Taliban and ISIS will gain. That will make the US panic and apply pressure on India.

But ultimately unless we apply pressure on the US via Pakistan, nothing is going to change. It's still the same as what I said ten years ago. Pakistan will not go down until the US is taken down.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Aug 2015 06:53

Rohit_K wrote:A section of the newly built Karakoram Highway by PRC in PoK has collapsed. Sorry for posting in-line.

http://mountaintv.net/wp-content/upload ... flood3.jpg

http://mountaintv.net/wp-content/upload ... lood-1.jpg

Photo Credits: Sajad Rumi Ghalapan
https://www.facebook.com/sajad.rumi

Thanks for posting. Goes to show how crumbly the mountains are. That is not going to change soon.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Aug 2015 08:38

^^^ Misphortunately, this is more water borne, than mountain caused. And easy for bakis to repair alone. That road is a real road now, that is the bad neuj. It will take more mountain action to send it back another decade.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 15 Aug 2015 09:13

^^^^
even in best condition the speed at the KKH is around 1 mile/hr in some spots. waiting times of few hours not uncommon.
the china pak connection thru kkh is not the best.

on top of it vagaries of nature , Chinese maal and paki brilliance in maintenance . one can never be sure which is more unpredictable.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Aug 2015 10:12

As a general question, could someone make a list of engineering marvels that linked places in the 20-21st century that were not already physically linked as far back as we can remember in history.

Japanese and Channel tunnels come to mind. Important bridges in various nations. Suez/Panama canal. But when it comes to surface roads - you make them only where the earth is kind to the road and allows it to survive with as little maintenance as possible.

Himalayan mountains are said to be crumbly and prone to landslides from rainfall and show. That appears to be the KKHs biggest enemy. The crumbliness of geologically "new and growing" mountains makes tunnels also difficult. The Chinese are said to be building a lot of tunnels but I am on the lookout for progress reports.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Aug 2015 10:23

krisna wrote:^^^^
even in best condition the speed at the KKH is around 1 mile/hr in some spots. waiting times of few hours not uncommon.
the china pak connection thru kkh is not the best.

on top of it vagaries of nature , Chinese maal and paki brilliance in maintenance . one can never be sure which is more unpredictable.

Krisna,

Chinese maal no longer has a poor reputation. And I encourage you to explore how some of the hardest road and rail challenges were overcome (and why the chinese played a part).

Coming to KKH, it serves two binary purposes:

-A symbol of occupation. de jure control aof an international route and chinese stake means bskistan remains in control.
- transportation of jewels if needed, crown or otherwise. This need not be during a war (when most certainly nothing is going to flow) but during "normal times". Things need not be unusual shape or heavy size. Just routine replenishment in good weather from nearest chinese railhead.

Road or no road, what trade will KKH ply? IT? Dry fruits? Mangos? Cotton towels to china? The road or its quality are really never the point with KKH. And if one were to go scouting for progress, KKH is a real asphslt topped motorable road. At the level of any decent state highway. For a commercially meaningless construct, it is a remarkably decent achievement. And a troubling precedent that could spread.

KKH isnt something to talk down. Building up there is not easy (but also not impossible as demonstrated). The chinese did their job, we now hope the bakis screw it up by letting it wash away in pieces. Or the mountains rumble piecefully once again. More the former than the latter one hopes. The latter clears more than roads.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Aug 2015 10:35

shiv wrote:As a general question, could someone make a list of engineering marvels that linked places in the 20-21st century that were not already physically linked as far back as we can remember in history.

Japanese and Channel tunnels come to mind. Important bridges in various nations. Suez/Panama canal. But when it comes to surface roads - you make them only where the earth is kind to the road and allows it to survive with as little maintenance as possible.

Himalayan mountains are said to be crumbly and prone to landslides from rainfall and show. That appears to be the KKHs biggest enemy. The crumbliness of geologically "new and growing" mountains makes tunnels also difficult. The Chinese are said to be building a lot of tunnels but I am on the lookout for progress reports.

shiv,

europe has dug some really impressive routes. And equally impressive elevated roads and bridges. the japanese trains. the chinese have a few road and rail bridges out of the world. there are some really remarkable roads in US and canada. Even something as simple as linking the keys. Stands up to foul weather all year long more or less. the nordics deal with terrain issues and weather issues.

the maintenance of any good road should imply that a portion of it is always being upgraded. This small washout would be repaired in a day or two under the better portions of the khan road network (which does see this kind of damage quite often). The rockies, and cascades and sierra nevadas have roads that are true marvels of engineering -- built to take routine heavy traffic.

KKH is designed and operated for a different purpose until bakistan becomes a human society instead of the pakjab colony it is now.

OT here, but the himalayan roads we routinely see are kept this way for reasons that have never been clear to me. If anything the BRO would have a strong push on its backside from everyone including the army and itbp given how many people they lose and how much is wasted due to inefficiency of transport. The morale could improve by another order of magnitude if going up to the lower reaches was only as difficult as driving to kochi. There are *some* places, small stretches where engineering will need to impress, but a lot of it is just sheer lack of will and effort. Or politics a la the railway link. Check out the state of the bridges along the route.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 15 Aug 2015 11:03

but the finish of the road looks pretty good... the undamaged bit.. its very hard to protect roads in the mountains. was recently on the leh srinagar road..many sections of road still very bad.. though much improved i would say

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 15 Aug 2015 11:38

Shreeman wrote:^^^ Misphortunately, this is more water borne, than mountain caused. And easy for bakis to repair alone. That road is a real road now, that is the bad neuj. It will take more mountain action to send it back another decade.

Yes, you are right, it is the water this time and not the mountain. But the mountain will strike some other time. It is summer now. If they are quick they have a window till end September before it gets too cold.

While it may be an engineering 'marvel' to build these, it is an engineering 'miracle' to keep these functional. Having seen the BRO work at close quarters, these roads extract a very heavy price in life and money.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Aug 2015 17:31

Shreeman wrote: Road or no road, what trade will KKH ply? IT? Dry fruits? Mangos? Cotton towels to china? The road or its quality are really never the point with KKH. And if one were to go scouting for progress, KKH is a real asphslt topped motorable road. At the level of any decent state highway. For a commercially meaningless construct, it is a remarkably decent achievement. And a troubling precedent that could spread.

Used to think the road was being created by the chinese for proliferation of WMD (nukes/missiles) to Pakistan, but it is probably easier to go the air route for such things. It seems like they are attempting to see the feasibility of running a workable highway to the Indian ocean via PoK...which seems to be high up on their agenda.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 15 Aug 2015 18:08

3 Indians killed and 7 Indians injured today by Pakistani shelling in Poonch sector of J&K.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Aug 2015 18:48

Tuvaluan wrote:
Shreeman wrote: Road or no road, what trade will KKH ply? IT? Dry fruits? Mangos? Cotton towels to china? The road or its quality are really never the point with KKH. And if one were to go scouting for progress, KKH is a real asphslt topped motorable road. At the level of any decent state highway. For a commercially meaningless construct, it is a remarkably decent achievement. And a troubling precedent that could spread.
Used to think the road was being created by the chinese for proliferation of WMD (nukes/missiles) to Pakistan, but it is probably easier to go the air route for such things. It seems like they are attempting to see the feasibility of running a workable highway to the Indian ocean via PoK...which seems to be high up on their agenda.

A road is one of the better symbols of possession. Here:

The first incarnation of the enormous project was also a gift from the Chinese to their southern neighbor Pakistan. Beijing financed the project and it was implemented under the Chinese supervision of some 15,000 Pakistani workers, mostly soldiers, and up to 20,000 Chinese workers. According to official figures, more than 800 Pakistanis and 82 Chinese were killed, though there were probably even more unreported Chinese victims among the dead. Many died during blasts and others plunged to their deaths in deep gorges.

is demonstrated determination. And here is the trade: 1.4B in exports mainly cotton.

Even though aggregate exports to China have increased rapidly, one needs to look at the structure of exports to fully understand the dynamics of this change. A review of the structure of exports reveals two things. First, the export structure in 2010 is not encouraging, with raw materials and primary manufactures such as cotton fiber, chromium ores, and cotton yarn accounting for almost two thirds of total exports (Table 4). Second, this structure has not changed much in the last decade—the same six commodities account for over 80 percent of exports in 2000 and 2010

The table wasnt easy to reproduce here. But the ore isnt traveling by truck. One ship will take all the KKH truck loads. Pakistan exports bad cotton and poor quality leather. And even that, less than 6% or so to china.

KKH is not for commerce. Adventure tourism? Guess again. The road is a marker in the sand to claim ownership. All roads are. Thats why BRO ought to buy some reasonable equipment, get some consultancy and imitate the corps of engineers for once -- build it because otherwise someone else will. Build to international standards and see it used.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Aug 2015 19:05

Shaktimaan wrote:3 Indians killed and 7 Indians injured today by Pakistani shelling in Poonch sector of J&K.

Well, it was forecasted here. Weeks and weeks ago. Sit on your hands in peace, suffer when the devil wakes up.

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 15 Aug 2015 20:04

The retaliation should come from BSF and IA. For such things they should be given free hand to kill as many pakis as possible. Basically turn 4 km inside pakistan into virtual death zone.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 15 Aug 2015 23:18

Paki twitterati reporting Hamid Gul died of brain haemorrhage

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 15 Aug 2015 23:36

5 Killed, 9 Injured in Pakistani Firing on Independence Day in Poonch

The shelling in Balakote sector started in the afternoon, in which five people, including a 12-year-old child and the village headman, were killed and six others were injured. They were airlifted to Jammu, Deputy Commissioner Poonch Nisar Ahamd Wani told NDTV.

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 15 Aug 2015 23:55

Gen. (retarded) HamIED gul is dead.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/938886/ex-s ... in-murree/

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 16 Aug 2015 00:07

ramana wrote:KLNM, thanks for the dog story. Made me smile after a long time.
Also you are back in your element!

A-Gupta, If you are looking for a single variable to correlate Pak terrorist attacks on India, I suggest US bonhomie with Pakistan. Secondary factor would be US pressure on India to talk to Pakistan.

First factor, when ever tSP is in good books of US it attacks India. Sort of feel good like the dog.

Second factor, when ever US demands India to talk to tSP, again it attacks for it ears disputes becoming settled and have to give up Army primacy-kabila issues.

So talks get called off.

NaMo has figured it out and says talks to proceed.

So we need to see bigger fallout.

Some years back, I actually tried the exercise of mapping paki attacks against India and correlating them with external events, signals etc. I had to give up eventually, because I found that for every correlation I found with, say India cutting off talks or some such thing, there was an equal correlation with the exact opposite thing--India doing papi-jhapi. Same thing with military dominance vs civilian dominance. Anyway, my data set was limited to significant attacks that were reported in the media, so it was hard to draw any useful conclusions.

I could only conclude that "attacking India" is just instinctive behavior for pakis. And they are not capable of going beyond their instincts. Even when they try, instinct eventually takes over. If India is not talking, or talking tough, they get angry and want to show India there is a price to pay for not talking. They rationalize that instinct by saying that attacks will keep happening unless India agrees to talks. If India is talking, or is not hitting back, then they will think they have won a victory over the kafirs, and feel duty-bound to push the envelope by attacking India to "test" how much more they can make the kafirs back down. Because, they rationalize that they wouldn't be doing justice to the pursuit of their cause if they just accept the kafir's "first offer." If India hits back, of course, then they are defending themselves. Every combination of variables set by India always results in Pakistan deciding to attack.

Maybe someone else will have more interesting results. But I think the exercise itself is not required to formulate a proper pakistan policy. Also, I doubt that we will be able to scientifically predict the windows during which an attack is significantly more likely to come.

The foundation for a rational pakistan policy for India should exclude the assumption that any action or policy of India will influence paki attacks one way or the other. It should also exclude the expectation that we will "settle" things with Pakistan and have a meaningful "peace." The policy should simply focus on maximizing the benefit and minimizing the loss for India, minus these two assumptions.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 16 Aug 2015 00:09

Yes, the world heaves a sigh of relief.
The guy was a mass murderer.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 16 Aug 2015 00:12

KLNM ji,
Another thing to consider is that the pattern is different in Cong rule vs BJP rule.
The pattern would be different during ABV BJP rule and Modi BJP rule.

Now the pakistanis are taking each step very carefully with a lot of trepidation.
If India shoots their BS dead in the tracks NOW, they'll take a step back. If not, they will feel very very encouraged to step it up.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 16 Aug 2015 00:26

there's one response that's guaranteed to stop these shelling (it may start other things but that's a separate issue).

use every available WLR and target those arty sites, in as near to realtime as possible. authorise use of rocket artillery, upto smerch level. flatten them and any other offending paki posts, till they run out of guns. use up our old stock in the process. it's guaranteed to stop these shelling at least.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 16 Aug 2015 01:50

kancha wrote:Paki twitterati reporting Hamid Gul died of brain haemorrhage

He had a brain?

That too on kafirs Independence Day

how can Allah be so cruel

Aug 4:

Settle Kashmir issue
or attack Pakistan and be done with it: Former ISI chief Hamid Gul
http://www.ibnlive.com/news/india/resol ... 30578.html

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 16 Aug 2015 01:52

Narad wrote:Gen. (retarded) HamIED gul is dead.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/938886/ex-s ... in-murree/

Thats excellent news , any idea what moron did between 69 and 72 , the wiki page has no details on that time, it's really strange

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 16 Aug 2015 02:54

Just saying,
Harami Gul's funeral procession is going to have every terrorist known to mankind as an attendee..
If OBL had been alive, he'd have attended for sure.

Looks like Gul heard Modi's speech from the red fort in the morning, and blew a fuse. He must have known the futility of all that he and Pakistan had been doing in the last 4 decades.