West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

[Falijee]

Saudi Royals Behave True to Form

Saudi King Salman leaves an unpaid bill of $4 million in the French Riviera

Maybe, he got miffed off at the unexpected - not so gracious - reception that he got and maybe, this is his idea of getting even

PARIS (Web Desk) – French authorities have claimed that wealthy Saudis owed €3.7m ($4m) in unpaid bills to hospitals in the French capital.

The figure emerged after King Salman of Saudi Arabia ended a holiday on the French Riviera which had provoked a row about the closure of a public beach for security reasons.

A celebrity French doctor, Patrick Pelloux, tweeted: “As a gesture of politeness, the Saudi King should pay his €3.7m bill to the Paris hospital [*]service before he leaves.”

[/b]

[*] So this is only one unpaid bill; surely there must be other creditors in the same boat ; maybe, the others should follow this French Doctor in publicly shaming these mid-east idles

Suppliers and would be vendors ( to these Royals ) would be well advised to ask for a hefty advance

[Falijee]

Saudi Arabia Gambles And Loses In Oil War With U.S.A

Kenny Rogers is probably not well known in Saudi Arabia but if recent speculation about the kingdom resorting to the international debt market [*]is correct then the words of The Gambler should be called, loudly, from every minaret in Riyadh.

[*] Is borrowing with interest allowed by the Book

In the case of Saudi Arabia, and the unconfirmed reports of it seeking $27 billion in debt via an issue of bonds, it appears to be adopting the gamblers strategy of seeing off its opponents in the increasingly competitive oil world by calling “raise ‘em.”

Until now, Saudi Arabia’s low cost oil and its cash reserves, estimated to be around $670 billion, was believed to be sufficient to frighten rival oil producers out of the business, clearing the way for a much-needed increase in the price, once the oil-glut subsides.

Until now, Saudi Arabia’s low cost oil and its cash reserves, estimated to be around $670 billion, was believed to be sufficient to frighten rival oil producers out of the business, clearing the way for a much-needed increase in the price, once the oil-glut subsides.

Saudi Arabia’s rumored resort to the debt market is not a sign that the kingdom is about to “fold,” but it is a pointer to the increasing pressure under which the big oil producer has found itself, with oil income falling as it seeks to spend more on defense to counter the likely reemergence of Iran as a regional power.

A year ago, the Saudi government was confident that the traditional approach to an oil glut,[*] a cut in production, was not the correct approach in the current situation.

[*]Makes you wonder who their oil strategy advisors are

The question which no-one can answer yet is: Who will blink first because the pain has become too great? While the Saudi debt plan might not be a blink, it is a hint that other gamblers at the oil table might see as a sign of weakness.

[Prem]

Saudi Royal Caravan is approaching standstill moment and soon coming to end. Massa have unleashed the wild dogs and jackals on them.They will spend whatever to buy time in hope of saving their privileges. Oil prices will remain depressed unless they blow up their own self and oil fields.
Beginning of End has begin, saving another headache for us. All the good omens are coming together after a millenia. Who would have "thunk" about this.

[RoyG]

Saudi Arabia Gambles And Loses In Oil War With U.S.A

Kenny Rogers is probably not well known in Saudi Arabia but if recent speculation about the kingdom resorting to the international debt market [*]is correct then the words of The Gambler should be called, loudly, from every minaret in Riyadh.

[*] Is borrowing with interest allowed by the Book

In the case of Saudi Arabia, and the unconfirmed reports of it seeking $27 billion in debt via an issue of bonds, it appears to be adopting the gamblers strategy of seeing off its opponents in the increasingly competitive oil world by calling “raise ‘em.”

Until now, Saudi Arabia’s low cost oil and its cash reserves, estimated to be around $670 billion, was believed to be sufficient to frighten rival oil producers out of the business, clearing the way for a much-needed increase in the price, once the oil-glut subsides.

Until now, Saudi Arabia’s low cost oil and its cash reserves, estimated to be around $670 billion, was believed to be sufficient to frighten rival oil producers out of the business, clearing the way for a much-needed increase in the price, once the oil-glut subsides.

Saudi Arabia’s rumored resort to the debt market is not a sign that the kingdom is about to “fold,” but it is a pointer to the increasing pressure under which the big oil producer has found itself, with oil income falling as it seeks to spend more on defense to counter the likely reemergence of Iran as a regional power.

A year ago, the Saudi government was confident that the traditional approach to an oil glut,[*] a cut in production, was not the correct approach in the current situation.

[*]Makes you wonder who their oil strategy advisors are

The question which no-one can answer yet is: Who will blink first because the pain has become too great? While the Saudi debt plan might not be a blink, it is a hint that other gamblers at the oil table might see as a sign of weakness.

Nah, they're one of the central pillars of the petrodollar recycling system. They've depressed the price to put pressure on Russia. If they crumble all the soldiers that came back from Iraq and Afghanistan will find themselves with a one way ticket back to desert life.

[RamaY]

Saudi Royal Caravan is approaching standstill moment and soon coming to end. Massa have unleashed the wild dogs and jackals on them.They will spend whatever to buy time in hope of saving their privileges. Oil prices will remain depressed unless they blow up their own self and oil fields.
Beginning of End has begin, saving another headache for us. All the good omens are coming together after a millenia. Who would have "thunk" about this.

Paging ShyamD Garu who had connections in GCC to take us mere mortals out of this false propaganda!

[Multatuli]

The link to the article posted by Falijee is not working, here is the correct link:

Saudi Arabia Might Just Have Blinked In The Oil War

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgol ... e-oil-war/

[Gyan]

Can somenody estimate reduction in Japanese Crude Oil imports as its Nuclear Power industry again ramps up?

[Baikul]

I would be more alert, not less, when the predicted decline and fail of Saudi Arabia and other oil economies happens. Disintegrating empires with little to sustain them and less to be proud of, but fired by religious intolerance and haunted by the knowledge they are circling the toilet drain...IMO they they will become even more dangerous and even more imperil the whole word.

[Prem]

http://www.todayonline.com/chinaindia/i ... gas-riches
With Iran’s help, India eludes China in race for gas riches

NEW DELHI — Anyone looking for the biggest immediate impact from Iran’s nuclear deal may want to turn away from the Middle East and toward the Indian subcontinent.With American sanctions easing, India is racing to build a port in Iran that will get around the fact that its land access to energy-rich former Soviet republics in Central Asia has been blocked by China and Pakistan.“We’re seeing the latest manifestation of the Great Game in Central Asia, and India is the new player,” said Mr Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “It’s had its eyes on Central Asia for a long time.”While the world focuses on what Iran’s opening means for Israel and Arab nations, the ramifications are also critical for Asia. Closer Iran-India ties would allow New Delhi’s leaders to secure cheaper energy imports to bolster economic growth and reduce the influence of both China and Pakistan in the region.The six nations that make up Central Asia hold at least 11 per cent of the world’s proven natural gas reserves, as well as substantial deposits of oil and coal, according to data compiled by BP.
“Iran can offer us an alternative route to Central Asia,” Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar said in Singapore last month. “The resolution of the nuclear dispute and lifting of sanctions will allow our agenda of energy and connectivity cooperation to unfold seriously.”Iran and a group of six nations led by the United States last month reached a historic accord to significantly limit Tehran’s nuclear ability for more than a decade in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions.India can be the first country to benefit from the accord in Asia, an Iranian diplomat told reporters in New Delhi this week.On a five-nation Central Asian tour last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi backed an ambitious transit route through Iran that would effectively connect Europe to India by a series of sea, rail and road links.
In a dry run on the alternative routes last August, the results showed that transit time from India’s financial capital of Mumbai could be more than halved to as short as 16 days and would slash costs by 70 per cent.“India isn’t energy insecure, it’s surrounded by oil and gas,” said Mr Subodh Kumar Jain, director of South Asia Gas Enterprise, the company behind a proposed US$4.5 billion (S$6.23 billion) undersea pipeline from India to Chabahar. “The challenge is geopolitical, not technical or financial.”“Pakistan has essentially had a stranglehold over India’s policy in the region,” said Mr Harsh V Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London. “India wanted to break that. Now, that constraint has been removed,” he said.Iran and India’s historical links date back to antiquity, when Indus Valley merchants plied routes to Mesopotamia. More recently, India was one of Iran’s top oil buyers before international sanctions were tightened several years ago.“As always, India will be playing catch up,” Mr Kugelman said. “It sees itself in a race with China, and it simply doesn’t want to fall behind”

[RamaY]

^ The above article proves my pet peeve on this forum.

India recapturing PoK will make it a world power. The sooner the better and the less expensive for Bharat.

[RoyG]

^ The above article proves my pet peeve on this forum.

India recapturing PoK will make it a world power. The sooner the better and the less expensive for Bharat.

If you break punjab's grip over the rest of the country, we'll be the strongest player in Balochistan. The Chinese will roll into PoK before we can capture it.

[RamaY]

^ The above article proves my pet peeve on this forum.

India recapturing PoK will make it a world power. The sooner the better and the less expensive for Bharat.

If you break punjab's grip over the rest of the country, we'll be the strongest player in Balochistan. The Chinese will roll into PoK before we can capture it.

Alright, your plan would result in denial of sea access to China?

PoK is Indian Territory under occupation. China entering it means China declared war.

[wig]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dav ... 47516.html


Robert Fist on David Cameron is failing to PR himself in the Middle East. Maybe he should start looking closer to home

excerpts

It was important, Dave’s factotum announced, that “we engage with countries where there are issues which are important to the UK’s national interest”. Note here the giveaway vocabulary of every public relations man: “engage” and “issues”. Certainly Dave could chat about the mass killing of at least 817 Egyptian male and female supporters of the Brotherhood at the Rabaa al-Adawiya square in 2013 – the second anniversary of which, by chance, falls this very week. Or he could discuss the slaughter that followed near Ramses station; or the burning to death of alleged Brotherhood members in a police truck two days later.

He could even produce the witness statement I have just been sent by an Egyptian doctor working in Britain who went to the aid of his wounded countrymen and women in Cairo, more than 60 of whom were killed a month before the Rabaa slaughter. This doctor discovered that many of the dead and dying had gunshot wounds to the head – “patients with their heads blown off” – the first of whom was a middle- aged man who had “quite literally a fountain of blood pouring from his head”. The man died on the operating table.
The same doctor discovered a dead body in a street on the way to his Cairo hospital. The man “had been severely tortured. There were signs of electrocution on various parts of the body, skid marks all over the body, particularly the thighs, buttocks and torso, and there were rope marks on the wrist.”
Every few days, the doctor writes, “we would get random dead bodies that were found on the roads, tortured to death in prison and thrown into the streets to scare protesters off”.

When family members, some clearly Brotherhood supporters, arrived for the bodies, “there were people crying all around, and some rejoicing that their relatives were martyrs. It was the most mortifying scene.”

But Dave’s a public relations man to his bones and this, I promise, will not be an “issue” in which he will want to “engage” the Field Marshal. Far more likely, he will want to mull over the £7.58bn deal that BP signed in Egypt this year to help the country through its energy crisis. Or perhaps the “new” Suez Canal launched with ludicrous fanfare only last week. Dave would understand the public relations success of the word “new”, when all that was constructed was a 20-mile bypass system for ships on the 120-mile canal.

and on the ground reality in Egypt

Egyptian banners with the state eagle missing from the national flag ... Egyptians dressed up in Pharaonic dress like the soldiers at the late Shah’s grotesque Persepolis party before the 1979 Iranian revolution ... the presence of President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan – wasn’t he supposed to be in The Hague on war crime charges?

Now, however, many are asking when (or if) al-Sisi will actually come to London. The president-field marshal long ago conflated his Muslim Brotherhood antagonists with the ferocious Isis faction that is now massacring his soldiers and policemen in Sinai and attacking Egyptian naval vessels off the coast. And in Cairo itself, there are now disturbing signs that the Brotherhood is suffering its own divisions, its leadership neutered and its youth asking whether their “blood sacrifice” might not better be pursued with Isis-style violence.

[Philip]

Playing to form as usual. We all know how the US/West created Islamic fundamentalism during the Zia regime to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan.That move spectacularly backfired with the rise of Osama and Al Q,leading to 9/11,etc. Learning nothing from that catastrophe,the US has yet again sponsored an even more diabolic version of Al Q,ISIS according to this report and admission by a former US intel chief. Here,the US and its MEast allies,the "oily" Sunni kingdoms and sheikhdoms,wanted ISIS to take care of Assad and the Syrian problem.Another monster creation,worse than Al Q.

US ex-intelligence chief on ISIS rise: It was 'a willful Washington decision'
Published time: 10 Aug, 2015

The US didn’t interfere with the rise of anti-government jihadist groups in Syria that finally degenerated into Islamic State, claims the former head of America’s Defense Intelligence Agency, backing a secret 2012 memo predicting their rise.

An interview with retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), given to Al Jazeera’s Mehdi Hasan, confirms earlier suspicions that Washington was monitoring jihadist groups emerging as opposition in Syria.

General Flynn dismissed Al Jazeera’s supposition that the US administration “turned a blind eye” to the DIA’s analysis.
Flynn believes the US government didn’t listen to his agency on purpose.
“I think it was a decision. I think it was a willful decision,” the former DIA chief said.

READ MORE: Iraq Diary, Day 8: Does the DIA report talk about ISIS roots?

The classified DIA report presented in August 2012, stated that “the Salafist, the Muslim Brotherhood, and AQI [Al- Qaeda in Iraq] are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria,” being supported by “the West, Gulf countries and Turkey.”

The document recently declassified through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), analyses the situation in Syria in the summer of 2012 and predicts: “If the situation unravels, there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria… and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime.”

The report warns of “dire consequences” of this scenario, because it would allow Al-Qaeda to regain its positions in Iraq and unify the jihadist Sunni forces in Iraq, Syria and the rest of the Sunnis in the Arab world against all other Muslim minorities they consider dissenters.

READ MORE: ‘US created conditions for ISIS’: RT talks to Iraqi Shia militia as they leave to fight

“ISI (the Islamic State of Iraq) could also declare an Islamic State through its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria, which will create grave danger in regards of unifying Iraq and the protection of its territory,” the DIA report correctly predicted at the time.
Those groups eventually emerged as Islamic State (IS formerly ISIS/ISIL) and Al-Nusra Front, an Islamic group loyal to Al-Qaeda.

Unlike the US State Department, which rushed to label the declassified DIA memo as unimportant soon after its declassification, the DIA’s former head expressed full trust in the 2012 report, stressing he “paid very close attention” to this document, adding “the intelligence was very clear.”

Al Jazeera notes that Lieutenant General Michael Flynn became “the highest ranking intelligence official to go on record,” saying the US and other states, notably Turkey and the Gulf Arab states, were sponsoring Al-Qaeda-led rebels in Syria with political support and weapons in an attempt to overthrow President Bashar Assad.

When Al Jazeera’s Hasan asked Flynn why he didn’t attempt to stop the US coordinating arms transfers to Islamic extremists, the retired general said: “I hate to say it’s not my job, but my job was to ensure the accuracy of our intelligence,” said Flynn, who also served as director of intelligence for the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) during the US hunt for Bin Laden.

READ MORE: ‘US seems to be constantly one step behind ISIS’

With the Al-Qaeda’s notorious founder killed in Pakistan in 2011, the former DIA head admitting the US sponsored Al-Qaeda-associated groups a year later in Syria should come as a shock to American media outlets, such as the Daily Beast, which criticized the DIA memo as unworthy.

Author for the Levant Report, Brad Hoff says hours after he published a rebuttal to the Daily Beast article, he was contacted by a personal friend, a high level official with CIA Public Affairs, who urged Hoff to drop his comments regarding the IS issue, insisting the Daily Beast article had been “written insightfully.”

Assad blame game ‘encourages more groups like ISIS’

RT’s Gayane Chichakyan asked US State Department spokesperson John Kirby to comment on the DIA memo and Flynn’s assessment of it. In response, Kirby ignored the claims, solely blaming Assad for the rise of Islamic State forces.

“I am certainly not going to talk about the intelligence report that I haven’t seen … The rise of ISIL inside Syria was, in fact, helped by Assad regime’s lack of legitimacy to govern effectively its own people and its own territory,” Kirby said.

Washington’s approach to Syria only helps to further destabilize the situation by exclusively presenting the Syrian president as a leader who has ‘lost’ legitimacy, Washington Bureau Chief for Al-Quds, Said Arikat, told RT.

“It is very difficult to contain the situation in Syria or Iraq. It is very difficult to put that genie back in the bottle. If the United States was really intent on defeating ISIS, it has to create or facilitate conditions by which or through which you can have a political resolution,” Arikat said.

“And you begin by saying we want all Syrian representatives, including those who look at Assad as a representative. That is the only way. To continue to adhere to the stubborn line that Assad has lost his legitimacy is basically agitating for more of these groups to emerge. Today we have ISIS, tomorrow we might have something else,” he added.

http://www.rt.com/usa/312050-dia-flynn-islamic-state/

[SSridhar]

Turkey enters the fray - SukumarMuralidharan, BusinesLine

There was a sense of urgency about Turkey’s call on July 26 for consultations under article four of the NATO treaty, invoked when threats arise to the ‘territorial integrity, political independence or security’ of any member state. The Islamic State (IS) had carried out its first attack on Turkish territory: a suicide bombing that killed 32 student activists in Suruc, a town bordering Syria. The left-wing students were attacked as they assembled to take relief material across to Kobane, a predominantly Kurdish town in Syria devastated by long-running battles with the IS.

Turkey got NATO to concede one of the demands it has long, and insistently, pressed for: a ‘safe zone’ where the opposition to Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime could entrench itself. Recognising this meant an explicit and undiscriminating involvement with the Syrian opposition, the US had long resisted it. In the maelstrom that is Syria today, a US-sponsored safe zone would work to the advantage of the IS and Al-Qaeda affiliated Jabath al-Nusra, both among the US’ principal enemies on the broader canvas of the ‘war on terror’.

Once Turkey secured active US backing for the ‘safe zone’ plan, it showed its gratitude by unilaterally changing agenda and attacking the most effective force fighting the IS on the ground. The first sorties by Turkish war-planes targeted Kurdish forces combating the IS and Jabhat al-Nusra to regain territory around Kobane.

Turkey was the spoiler in 2003, when the US was in an extreme flush of war-lust preparing for the invasion of Iraq. It refused transit rights for US forces and declined permission to use NATO’s Incirlik airbase, located on its territory. As Iraq descended into chaos, Turkey moved in subtly to deepen its strategic influence. Fearful of its own internal stability, Turkey had for long opposed any hint of autonomy for Iraq’s Kurdish regions. But the shifting strategic alignments in the region, especially after the conflict in Syria acquired dimensions of full-blown civil war, meant that Turkey could go beyond older formulae and seek an accommodation of convenience with the Kurdish self-governing unit in Iraq. It was relatively risk-free, since Turkey was then in a state of ceasefire with its own Kurdish guerillas. For Iraq’s Kurds, a relationship with Turkey was a strategic offset for growing Iranian influence in the largely Shia south of the country.

These strategic calculations started going seriously askew as the Syrian turmoil escalated and the IS effectively effaced a vast part of the border with Iraq. Kurdish armed groups geared up for resistance to the IS by coordinating across frontiers, raising the prospect that they would take control over contiguous territories from Iraq through Syria, right up to the Turkish border. That set off alarm bells in Turkey and an overt move towards intervening in Syria and Iraq with bombing raids on Kurdish targets. Turkey is now fully engaged in Syria as part of NATO, but working at clear cross-purposes with the putative leader of the alliance. The US wants the defeat of the IS and regime change in Syria – perhaps in that order. Turkey wants to crush the Kurdish resurgence and secure regime change in Syria, in no particular priority, though it sees the IS as a distinctly lesser worry.

With the explosive arrival of the IS in 2014, the US was officially committed to a battle of dual containment, seeking the destruction of the IS while also dismantling Syria and Iran, the militia’s only credible regional opponents. It was not long before the inconsistencies in these objectives began to wear down its infinite appetite for war. In deep remorse, vice-president Joe Biden said in October last year that US-assembled alliances had directly fuelled the rise of the IS. Outraged reactions from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey prompted a quick apology, though Biden’s only sin was uttering publicly what was by then the official reading of US intelligence.

In August 2012, well before the emergence of the IS as a threat, a report by the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) in the US, spoke of the possible repercussions of continuing chaos in Syria. Regime change was a declared policy objective and, as in various other contexts, the US was gladly aligning with every political tendency in that pursuit. The DIA noted that the insurgency in Syria was principally driven by an extremist sect called the Salafists, as also the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. Among its supporters were ‘the west, Gulf countries and Turkey’. Further aggravation in Syria, the DIA observed, could lead to ‘a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in Eastern Syria’. This was ‘exactly what the supporting powers’ wanted, ‘in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which (was) considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran)’. The potential deterioration of the situation though, would have ‘dire consequences’ for Iraq. It would create the ‘ideal atmosphere’ for Al Qaeda to ‘return to its old pockets in Mosul and Ramadi and (would) provide a renewed momentum under the presumption of unifying the jihad among Sunni Iraq and Syria’. There was no mystery about the emergence of the IS as a force that, within days, could seize control of major cities and a vast area within Iraq. It was foreseen almost to its last details. What remains to be revealed is the role various regional actors played in fomenting the chaos.

[TSJones]

Muslims, deep in their heart, really like Crusader Europe.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/66287 ... gary-fence

[srin]

Any idea what's behind PM's sudden announcement of UAE trip starting Aug 17th ? It is a single country trip (usually he clubs the trips) and it is last minute.

[svinayak]

Any idea what's behind PM's sudden announcement of UAE trip starting Aug 17th ? It is a single country trip (usually he clubs the trips) and it is last minute.

There is popular public support for the visit. Ram Madhav Gen sec BJP said that they were not sure of the visit.
In 10 days they arranged a 35k people reception and 50k people want to attend

[Prem]

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/narendra ... -approach/
Narendra Modi's UAE Trip Highlights India's Shifting Middle East Approach
( IMHO, There is power Vacuum in ME and India should try to move in and not let the space for China to play)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) later this week has once again brought to focus India’s changing role in the Middle East. This will be the first visit by an Indian prime minister to the UAE in 34 years. Then-prime minister Indira Gandhi visited the Emirates in 1981. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was to travel to the UAE in March 2013, but the visit was cancelled at the last minute.India’s policy toward the Middle East has often been viewed through the prism of Indian–Iranian relations. The international community, and the West in particular, has been obsessed with New Delhi’s ties to Tehran, while missing India’s much more substantive simultaneous engagement with Arab Gulf states and Israel. India’s engagements with Arab states in the Middle East have gained momentum in the last few years, even as Iran continued to hog the limelight. India wants to secure energy supplies and consolidate economic and trade relations with the Gulf States, while those states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, or the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council) have adopted a “Look East” policy that has allowed them to carve out a much more substantive relationship with India than in the past.
The economic dimension of India’s Gulf policy has become more pronounced in recent years as well. As a group, the GCC is India’s second-largest trading partner, the largest single origin of imports into India, and the second largest destination for exports from India. The UAE itself was the third largest trading partner of India in 2014-15, after the United States and China, with a bilateral trade volume of $60 billion. The GCC countries supply 45 percent of India’s petroleum, with the UAE being the sixth largest source of oil.The GCC countries remain a major destination for Indian investment, even as India is making a concerted attempt to encourage GCC investment in India. India hopes that major GCC states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman would participate in India’s planned infrastructure expansion. With a rising demand for infrastructure development, India is looking for large investments from the Gulf, which is flush with funds due to the recent surge in oil prices. The Gulf States meanwhile are interested in human resources from India in order to develop sectors as varied as information technology, construction, transportation, and services.

India’s trade and energy security is inextricably linked to the security of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. With this in mind, the Indian Navy regularly visits Gulf ports and trains with states in the region. The Indian Navy has undertaken a series of naval exercises with a number of Gulf States in recent years, thereby lending its hand to Indian diplomacy in expanding India’s reach in the region. Indian warships have also been deployed in the Gulf of Aden to carry out anti-piracy patrols on the route usually followed by Indian commercial vessels between Salalah (Oman) and Aden (Yemen). The Gulf of Aden is a strategic choke point in the Indian Ocean and provides access to the Suez Canal, through which a sizable portion of India’s trade flows.

In addition, Indians are the largest expatriate community in the GCC states, numbering around 7 million. There are an estimated 2.6 million Indians in the UAE alone. Indian expatriate labor constitutes around 30 percent of the total population of the UAE, and Indians have a significant presence in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar. India receives remittances worth around $6 billion annually from its Gulf expatriates. These remittances have contributed significantly to India’s economic resurgence, even as there have been growing concerns in recent years about the living and working conditions in the host countries. India is pursuing manpower and labor agreements with Gulf States to help Indian workers in the region. Modi’s outreach to the expatriates in the UAE is going to be the highlight of his visit. For all these reasons, Modi’s visit to the UAE is going to be significant and it will once again underline India’s continuing stakes in a region that is growing through a period of momentous change. Much like the regional states, India would also like a stable balance of power to emerge in a region riven with multiple fault-lines.

[ramana]

Jhujar,

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 3#p1881673

This is where geo-politics helps to understand.

After Ottoman empire was defeated and re-arranged the British created a system of three regional power balances to manage and prevent any natural power to emerge between Mediterranean to Indus.

Also addresses the historical scourge of Europe: invasions from Asia.

First Iraq was created to balance Iran.

Next Pakistan to balance India

Then Israel to balance the Arabs.

Note: All three creations are small populations to balance larger populations. Easy to sustain them.

End of Cold War and collapse of FSU saw:

Arab-Israel balance collapse with Israel emerging powerful.

1998 nuke tests and post 9/11 decade saw Pakistan on verge of collapse.

Two Gulf wars destroyed Iraq with Iran emerging unchecked.

So except in Israel-Arab balance the natural powers have prevailed in last thirty years.
And there is power vacuum developing in West Asia.

Braudel wrote " India is a pendulum that swings between East and West Asia"

Power vacuum in West Asia means India will swing towards West Asia a reversal of last millennium.

Yet US the successor to Anglo-Saxongiri wants to divert India towards East and away from the West Asia.

Hence TSP is a supreme national interest for them to prevent India to swing towards West Asia and wipe out the historical scourge.


Yet historical forces predict TSP will fail to prevent the westward ho of India.

[ramana]

Not to mention all kinds of criminal networks hide in the Middle East like Scar and the three hyenas hangout.

Middle East can expect to work with India and harbor the criminal networks.

[Philip]

The Ottoman Nero or Fuhrer? Either way,his megalomania reminds one of another former despot who bit the dust, Nikolai Ceausescu.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... html[quote]
Robert Ellis
Thursday 13 August 2015

While Erdogan is ensconced in his opulent new palace, Turkey is on the brink of civil war
The country is being held hostage by its ambitious president

Turkey is on the brink of civil war and economic collapse, and the country’s future is being held hostage to the overweening ambition of its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Egged on by a delusion of neo-Ottoman grandeur, created by his former foreign minister and now prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan has been intent on creating what many see as his own caliphate, but was blocked in the June election by the Kurdish HDP (Peoples’ Democratic Party).

Read more:
• Turkey's bombing campaign in Syria and Iraq is the last thing we need
• Patrick Cockburn: Turkey's campaign can benefit Isis in Syria

For the first time, a Kurdish-based party exceeded the electoral threshold of 10 percent and with 13 percent of the votes took 80 out of the Turkish parliament’s

550 seats, depriving Erdogan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party) of the overall majority it needed to change the constitution and secure Erdogan full executive power. With a reduced majority, 258 seats, the AKP has been forced to negotiate with the secular CHP (Republican People’s Party) with a view to forming a coalition, but the deck is stacked – the head of the AKP delegation was appointed by Erdogan, and talks have ended inconclusively. Now the way is open for a new election in November, where the AKP hopes to regain its overall majority.

When it comes to the Kurdish question, Erdogan has performed a remarkable u-turn. In 2005, in a historic speech in Diyarbakir, the capital of Turkey’s southeast, Erdogan was the first Turkish leader openly to acknowledge there was a Kurdish problem, and secret talks were later held in Oslo between Turkey’s MIT (National Intelligence Organization) and the outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). Two years ago the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, also called for a ceasefire.

A major step in the peace process came with the Dolmabahce Agreement, a 10-point plan to resolve the Kurdish issue, which was announced at the end of February by the AKP government’s deputy prime minister and an HDP deputy. Therefore it came as a shock when Erdogan in mid-March declared that Turkey had never had a Kurdish problem and later in July after the election turned his back on the agreement.

Erdogan had originally counted on Kurdish support for a constitutional change but the peace process came to an effective end when the HDP’s co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas, in mid-March told Erdogan three times: “We will not make you the president.” In return, Erdogan stated: “There cannot be an agreement with a political party that is being supported by a terrorist organization."

Steps are now being taken to strip Selahattin Demirtas and his co-chair, Figen Yüksekdag, of their parliamentary immunity to make it possible to prosecute them for alleged terror links. Turkey’s deal with the US to allow American aircraft to use Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey for sorties against ISIL has been interpreted by the interim AKP government as carte blanche for air strikes against PKK bases in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey in retaliation for PKK attacks on the Turkish army and police.

This has alarmed US president Barack Obama, who has called on Turkey “to stay focused”, reminding the Turkish government that “the agreement we are working on is carefully bound around: how do we close off that border to foreign fighters entering into Syria? And everything we do will be based on that issue.”
President Erdogan is safely ensconced in his opulent new palace like the Roman emperor Nero who fiddled while Rome burned.

This appeal seems to have fallen on deaf ears with the escalation of violence in Turkey. In the meantime, President Erdogan is safely ensconced in his opulent new palace like the Roman emperor Nero who fiddled while Rome burned. quote]

[rsingh]

^^^This was predicted two years ago on BRF. Nothing new.

[Tuvaluan]

Turkey's liberals have been sidelined in a calculated manner for a while now, so this "civil war" is not happening because Erdogan is playing Nero. This is happening willfully and deliberately under his leadership.

[Prem]

Not to mention all kinds of criminal networks hide in the Middle East like Scar and the three hyenas hangout.\\Middle East can expect to work with India and harbor the criminal networks.

World is not only getting into 21st Century , its also reverting to old natural order of pre colonial days.
Predominance of India in Middle East is but a expected by product of India' rise . Modi's visit may be the beginning of the closing any loophole for China to put its foot in when they arrive right across in Gwadar. Visit to both Iran and Saudi Arabia will be Earthshattering Arthshsatric event and its inevitable in near future. Gulf countries must be aware of the threat since they know Chinese are not in the habit of vacating occupied territory.Beside Paki , IMHO, no one perceive China as benevolent power and ME states must have taken note of China's behavior in South China Sea.

[ramana]

Jhujar, Iranian Foreign Minister is right now in Delhi.
Puts paid to motivated Bhadrakumar genre of analcysts.

US by supporting Erdogan has thrown the Kurds to the wolves.

Hammered between Iranians and turks.

However Kurds are older than Arabs and turks!!!

[Prem]

If Asad survive, he may turn out to be the best friend of Kurds.

[Shanu]

Well, the Kurds are definitely not going down without a fight.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... sCatID=341

Three soldiers were killed in a clash with PKK militants in the southeastern Hakkari province's Dağlıca district late Aug. 14, Turkish media reported. Six soldiers were wounded in the clash.

On Aug. 13, Veli Ateş, a gendarmerie sergeant, was killed after PKK militants detonated a remote-controlled landmine they had placed near a railroad in the eastern province of Bingöl, the Bingöl Governor’s Office said in a written statement. Bingöl also saw another clash which injured one military officer. Rıdvan Çakır, a gendarmerie sergeant, was injured in Bingöl late Aug. 13 after PKK militants fired shots with long-barreled weapons and rockets at the Yeniyazı District Gendarmerie station.

Another incident took place in the eastern province of Tunceli on Aug. 13. Murat Kaba, 31, a gendarmerie sergeant, and four civilians were injured after PKK militants detonated a minibus full of explosives near the Pülümür District Gendarmerie Command in Tunceli at around 11 p.m. on Aug. 13. A five-story military residence and eight homes around the command were severely damaged. Gülizar Şahin, 52, one of the injured civilians, was reported to be in serious condition.

Two police officers were injured in Diyarbakır’s Silvan district late Aug. 13 after militants from the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement (YDG-H), the youth wing of the PKK, fired rockets at police vehicles from a 20-meter distance. The injured security personnel were taken to the Silvan Public Hospital for treatment.

Two Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TEİAŞ) engineers, identified by the initials İ.S. and F.A., were injured in the southern province of Hatay around 7:30 a.m. on Aug. 14 in the explosion of a landmine planted by terrorists in Hatay’s İskenderun district. The two engineers’ injuries were reportedly not life-threatening.

A Turkish soldier was injured in the eastern province of Şırnak in the evening hours on Aug. 13 after unknown men with their faces masked launched fireworks and sound bombs at a military command in Şırnak’s Cizre district. The injured military personnel were taken to the Şırnak Public Hospital and the perpetrators were reported to be at large.

Meanwhile, two police officers were wounded in an ambush in the Nusaybin district of southeastern Mardin province on Aug. 14.

In the past 38 days, a total of 38 security personnel and 12 civilians have been killed by PKK militants, while 132 others have been injured. Turkish air strikes have killed scores of PKK militants in northern Iraq, according to the army, while 39 militants have been killed in operations inside Turkey.

[Shanu]

India's influence over the Gulf monarchies can only increase now.. with the Chinese slowdown..Hope Modiji get some good deals for our refiners and our strategic oil reserve.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government ... ging-cash/

With China’s economic crash driving U.S. oil prices down to $42 a barrel, Saudi Arabia is the oil-exporting nation suffering the worst economic decline.

The 15,000 members of the six branches of the Saudi royal family have been buying national support with massive social welfare spending. But with the oil price plunging by 60 percent, causing a massive budget deficit, the kingdom’s foreign exchange reserves could be wiped out in four years.

Let's not forget that Saudi Arabia currently derives over 45 percent of the country's GDP, 80 percent of its budget revenue and 90 percent of its export earnings from oil.

[SSridhar]

India and UAE join hands against terrorism - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

India made a big move in its West Asia strategy on Monday, while the UAE took a decisive step away from its traditional close relationship with Pakistan to line up with India.

On his first visit to Abu Dhabi, PM Narendra Modi and Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed AI Nahyan agreed to cooperate against terrorism, radicalism and organized crime that, if followed through, could deny the likes of Dawood Ibrahim, Lashkar-e-Taiba and other terror groups from using the Emirates as a springboard against India.

For the first time, reflecting changed geopolitical realities, India and the UAE agreed to "enhance cooperation in counter-terrorism operations, intelligence sharing" and control of flow of terror funds. In a breakthrough agreement, both countries will "control, regulate and share information on flow of funds that could have a bearing on radicalization activities and cooperate in interdicting illegal flows and take action against concerned individuals and organizations".

More important, and one that reflects the strategic direction the UAE has chosen, a joint statement said the two nations "oppose terrorism in all forms and manifestations ... calling on all states to reject and abandon the use of terrorism against other countries, dismantle terrorism infrastructures where they exist, and bring perpetrators of terrorism to justice".

This is a direct reference to Pakistan's activities, particularly with reference to 26/11 accused Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, without naming it, and shows Islamabad's declining equity in what used to be its strategic backyard. Further, both countries asked all countries (read Pakistan) "to fully respect and sincerely implement their commitments to resolve disputes bilaterally and peacefully, without resorting to violence and terrorism".

Modi and the Crown Prince will now meet regularly, while the national security advisers of both countries will meet every six months to take this forward.

The UAE's shift is remarkable because the Emirates' sheikhs continue to have close personal relationships in Pakistan, including the country being their favourite game hunting destination. The UAE was also one of three countries which supported a Taliban government in Afghanistan in the 1990s. For decades, the UAE has been a safe transit for terror groups, organized crime and drug networks from Pakistan, Afghanistan and even India. Sources said the UAE signing on to this agreement signals a new dawn.

India has abandoned its decades-old reticence regarding the Gulf and Middle East — the UAE will be the first Gulf country with whom India is talking "interoperability" for both humanitarian assistance and conflict situations, joint manufacture of defence equipment and maritime security cooperation.

India's new outreach to the UAE may have repercussions in two countries — Pakistan and Iran. The UAE has a contentious relationship with Iran, while Pakistan and the UAE have been very close — the Taliban-hijacked IC-814 made a stop in Dubai after taking off from Amritsar.

By upgrading the bilateral relationship to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", Modi plans to open different sectors of the Indian economy to investment from the UAE. India hopes to benefit from the $800 billion UAE sovereign wealth fund and the joint statement gives room for optimism.

It said the UAE will "encourage the investment institutions of UAE to raise their investments in India, including through the establishment of UAE-India Infrastructure Investment Fund, with the aim of reaching a target of $75 billion to support investment in India's plans for rapid expansion of next generation infrastructure".

The importance laid on the visit by the hosts was clear when Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived with all his five brothers to receive Modi at the airport. An additional gesture was grant of land for a Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi.

[JE Menon]

That last sentence is highly indicative. It looks like the UAE has assessed the relationship with India, our general policy consistency, interest in sustainable geo-political stability, and existing and emergent capabilities and decided that the time has come not just to think, but to articulate and to act. A change in declaratory policy means long-term commitment to a certain line. The fact that the brothers of the Crown Prince were there signals comprehensive buy-in on that line. Good news.

[Altair]

That last sentence is highly indicative. It looks like the UAE has assessed the relationship with India, our general policy consistency, interest in sustainable geo-political stability, and existing and emergent capabilities and decided that the time has come not just to think, but to articulate and to act. A change in declaratory policy means long-term commitment to a certain line. The fact that the brothers of the Crown Prince was there signals comprehensive buy-in on that line. Good news.

OT
Modi is looking more and more like Batman in Dark Knight. The Mafia is synonymous with "Congressi System" of Ceremonious West, Welfare Economics, Secular Politics etc... It took Modi to cut through all the Bull$hit which was being flying around. I see Sonia Gandhi emerging as the Joker whose only aim is chaos and to be put in the same sentence or photo frame or news headline as Modi. We have Doval as the loyal friend Jim Gordon.

[Austin]

What’s Behind Russia’s Latest Round of Syrian Diplomacy?

[Singha]

imo a sign of good faith would be if the ex-ISI/PA jernails serving in the UAE security apparatus were quietly terminated, paid their contract money and packed off on the next flight to pindi..with unofficial quiet word not to return.

the arab elites need to decide whether they want to get rich and stay rich/safe or fight to be more faithful/green flag...in the first case they need to invest in places like india ... in second case invest in TSP startup eco-system.

they need to use their sovereign wealth funds like singapore does and invest in strategic stakes in our cos.

[Gyan]

Abu Dhabi is oil rich and may be acting in consultation with other GCC nations. It seems ISIS on door is scaring lot of Monarchies.

[RajeshA]

the arab elites need to decide whether they want to get rich and stay rich/safe or fight to be more faithful/green flag...in the first case they need to invest in places like india ... in second case invest in TSP startup eco-system.

they need to use their sovereign wealth funds like singapore does and invest in strategic stakes in our cos.

I don't think, they would opt for a single proposition. They would continue to wage war with Iran by propping up ISIS and some groups in Pakistan, as well as having connections to the Pakistani Elite including the Deep State.

On the other hand, they would also cooperate with India. It is exactly their connections with the Pakistani drug-weapons-islam mafia that makes them so useful for us.

It seems UAE is willing to help India keep Pakistan's and Islam's anti-Indian campaign in check, while still using Pakistani territory to try to neutralize Iranian influence.

[Altair]

Bollywoodies, Mafias, RAPEes money is parked in GCC. They seldom park in US and may be some part in Londonistan but majority will be in GCC. I think UAE has already choked all the funds which fuels Pakistani RAPEes and also the Congress system. Modi's visit to UAE can be seen as a recognition of that work done by UAE. Major ball$ have been squeezed, Pakistani Jernails, Congressi middlemen perhaps..hence the major takleef

This is a MAJOR COUP if we can call it by Modi since May-2014.

[A_Gupta]

I'm with RajeshA, in that UAE will play the small wealthy state that makes it in everyone's interest that they survive. If push comes to shove, they will be neutral or pro-Pakistan.

But, this is a major coup. By itself, it is good for India. And I think the signalling to Pakistan is intense. I wonder if it was still Ayub Khan's Pakistan, whether UAE would have been this hospitable.

It is also a reminder that strategy is an all-country thing, it is not just about pair-wise relations. E.g., how much did Indian initiatives on BBIN, ASEAN, Japan-US exercises, etc., make UAE feel that they need to get in on the action as well?

[A_Gupta]

Also, the land for a Hindu temple is to be appreciated. al Qaeda's ideology is "Expel the polytheists from the Arabian peninsula." (The narrower, literal statement of the Holy Books is "Expel the Jews of Hijaz from the peninsula of the Arabs"). A Hindu temple can potentially be the rallying point for any number of a variety of Islamists to organize against the current regime in the UAE.

[RamaY]

Also, the land for a Hindu temple is to be appreciated. al Qaeda's ideology is "Expel the polytheists from the Arabian peninsula." (The narrower, literal statement of the Holy Books is "Expel the Jews of Hijaz from the peninsula of the Arabs"). A Hindu temple can potentially be the rallying point for any number of a variety of Islamists to organize against the current regime in the UAE.

Disagree!

Indian Hinduism isn't different from Arab Hinduism; Same as Indian Islam isn't different from Arabian Islam. If Hindu India can give space for Islamic mosques, then Islamic Arabia must give space for Hindu temple. No need to pamper.

I see lot of love for Ayub Khan's Pakistan! But our erudite optimist forgot that UAE had Indian printed currency when Ayub Khan was ruling pakis.