Vayu Bhagavan AKA Mark Twain,vayu tuvan wrote:TKiran:
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can." - Samuel Clemens AKA Mark Twain
When should I speculate?
Vayu Bhagavan AKA Mark Twain,vayu tuvan wrote:TKiran:
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can." - Samuel Clemens AKA Mark Twain
On July 28, I was up about 15% for the year across my entire portfolio which was awesome. I could see dolla bills everywhere. Now I am negative Year To Date, I bet. I don't have the guts to look at my portfolio. Anyway I decided that I will ride it out since I have market/sector ETFs anyway.Theo_Fidel wrote:
At that point you are speculating not investing. What has changed about the company or market sector to make you sell?
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Sometimes this is a good time to re-balance your portfolio. But you need some real cojones of steel to do this at this point. You will have to sell your stronger stocks, say the ones with 5% decline and buy the major losers of 20% or so decline. Personally don't have such cojones so I let it ride....
TKiran: Do not worry 90%+ of the investors do not know, but some pretend that they do and many are gamblers.TKiran wrote: Most of my portfolio is 'blue chips'. I invested 2 lakhs some 18 months ago. It was 4 lakhs a month ago. But as u said I don't understand stock markets so I just see my portfolio and now I thought I can act smart. But I dont know
let us take cement and steel. they produce more of it than next 20 combined. even if they sell for below cost price, who wants so much of it? not unless someone has a fetish to stockpile 10 years usage.Kakkaji wrote:China has built excess manufacturing capacity, and the raw material prices are currently low. So, can't they just devalue/ dump/ export their way out of this crisis?
I'm not a mod, so I have no authority to make edicts. It was a request with a link so you guys don't have to go digging to find the right thread.vayu tuvan wrote:nachiket: Now that the a few posts are moved to personal finance thread, could you please comment there instead of hovering in this here dhaga? Some of us plebs complied with your edict to move there. It is only fair that aap woh dhaga padaAraein, hain?
This is a typical commodity cycle phenomenon. All commodities follow the same cycle - high demand, build up of capacities, over-capacity, falling off of demand and prices, some capacities shut down, demand slowly rises again. Happened with fibre optics as well in 2001.Singha wrote:let us take cement and steel. they produce more of it than next 20 combined. even if they sell for below cost price, who wants so much of it? not unless someone has a fetish to stockpile 10 years usage.
In general, residential real estate is in dire straits. There wont be any price appreciation for quite a few years to come. If the govt is truly interested in tackling black money, they need to tackle this sector.Yagnasri wrote:How does this effect Indian real estate?? I mean already there is huge "stock" of flats with most of the builders. Is the money going to come to real estate now that Share market is down? Or people will be more worried and sell their stock of flats asap?
Interesting to see.
Ah, missing all the Comprehension Ji, but China is a Command e-Con-o-mee. Their state owned companies don't operate by market dynamics, especially capacity creation and destruction (same story in India, can anyone imagine Air India getting liquidated, HMT, ITI, Hindustan Photo Film (we are in digital age remember?)) .somnath wrote: This is a typical commodity cycle phenomenon. All commodities follow the same cycle - high demand, build up of capacities, over-capacity, falling off of demand and prices, some capacities shut down, demand slowly rises again. Happened with fibre optics as well in 2001.
The Chinese over capacities too will get dealt with over the next few years - either by banks (who write off the assets), or by utilisation as demand catches up.
This has been my argument all along.Singha wrote:let us take cement and steel. they produce more of it than next 20 combined. even if they sell for below cost price, who wants so much of it? not unless someone has a fetish to stockpile 10 years usage.Kakkaji wrote:China has built excess manufacturing capacity, and the raw material prices are currently low. So, can't they just devalue/ dump/ export their way out of this crisis?
in any field they have surplus capacity, down to smartphones, electrical machinery, construction sector, ship building...how many greenfield projects will they start in africa and latin america to occupy this excess capacity and export hordes of workers.
there will have to be liquidation of productive assets for scrap value to get rid of overcapacity or else idle plants at 20% capacity and lay off people which inevitably leads to the social unrest the ccp is so scared of
the whiplash effect is going to hit commodity exporters like russia, indonesia, australia, brazil and canada. even india we better stop the mania of exporting ores and start / expand our own plants asap
Private equity (PE) investments in the country’s real estate sector increased by 177 percent at Rs.11,080 crore during the first six months of this year as against an investment of Rs.4,000 crore during the corresponding period last year.
According to a report from real estate consultancy firm Cushman and Wakefield, PE investments in real estate witnessed the highest inflows during the January-June period this year since 2008 owing to increased exposure from both domestic and foreign funds.
The report said the residential sector accounted for 56 percent at Rs.6,328 crore of the total PE investments while the commercial office sector drew 41 percent of the investment at Rs.4,528 crore.
Yawn.. An oxymoron. Govt's and "smart". Didn't we have exactly this "command and control" , we know better , 4 factor model , invest in Capital Goods, and dont fritter resources in hair oil and brylcreem as expounded by the great PC Mahlanobis himself along with the other major panjandrums such as that changing by the minute chameleon, Amartya Sen. Now we know how that entire ISI/DSE/Planning Commision/JNU ding dong giri turned out. A miserable failure.The Keynesian boost to the economy has to be done smartly
Both of the above posts should go to Personal Finances. K'jo - there is a curve where one *needs* to have a good debt to actually gain +ve returns.KJo wrote:On July 28, I was up about 15% for the year across my entire portfolio which was awesome. I could see dolla bills everywhere. Now I am negative Year To Date, I bet. I don't have the guts to look at my portfolio. Anyway I decided that I will ride it out since I have market/sector ETFs anyway.Theo_Fidel wrote:
At that point you are speculating not investing. What has changed about the company or market sector to make you sell?
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Sometimes this is a good time to re-balance your portfolio. But you need some real cojones of steel to do this at this point. You will have to sell your stronger stocks, say the ones with 5% decline and buy the major losers of 20% or so decline. Personally don't have such cojones so I let it ride....
Anyway, over the years, I made sure that I put money from my salary into paying off home mortgage principal. That is why I was able to drive it down and hence monthly payment too. Many of my friends put salary money into the market and lost it by selling low, so now have no market returns, and still have high mortgage balance.
I'd much rather focus on the output parameters....Are we achieving targeted growth rate? Are we doing better than rest of the world? No indication that we are off track yet.somnath wrote:As of now, we have seen "more of the same", maybe more efficiently. Time to kick on with the big ones.
That "more of the same" comment is ridiculous. Do we have another coal scam that has tied up coal supplies and kept thousands of MW of installed power capacity offline? Are big projects getting stuck forever in clearances and red tape? Are subsidies out of control and the fiscal deficit increasing dangerously? No. Exactly the opposite, you say? Then it is definitely, not more of the same. Except in the warped mind of people still seething that the great economists of the NAC, whom they much admired aren't running things (into the ground) anymore.Arjun wrote:I'd much rather focus on the output parameters....Are we achieving targeted growth rate? Are we doing better than rest of the world? No indication that we are off track yet.somnath wrote:As of now, we have seen "more of the same", maybe more efficiently. Time to kick on with the big ones.
The new Indian headline growth numbers are quite problematic. Even RBI doesn't quite "understand" them, a euphemism for saying that it doesn't all add up. Not to talk of analysts like Ruchir Sharma.Arjun wrote:I'd much rather focus on the output parameters....Are we achieving targeted growth rate? Are we doing better than rest of the world? No indication that we are off track yet.somnath wrote:As of now, we have seen "more of the same", maybe more efficiently. Time to kick on with the big ones.
Do you follow the macros? High frequency numbers? Capacity utilization numbers? Profitability of metal companies? Price of power in the power exchanges? Banking results? These are the sources of data for professionals - if you did, you wouldn't have had to depend on the "forum" to make up your mind on what is a rather techincal subject.Supratik wrote:This is the first time I am hearing about over-capacity in power, ports and other infra. Please don't make manufacture stuff. There are other reasons for NPAs which have been discussed on this forum.
The NAC did go somewhat warped, indeed. But this govt seems to have retained bulk of the "warpness"! None of the social security programmes have been touched.nachiket wrote:Are subsidies out of control and the fiscal deficit increasing dangerously? No. Exactly the opposite, you say? Then it is definitely, not more of the same. Except in the warped mind of people still seething that the great economists of the NAC, whom they much admired aren't running things (into the ground) anymore.