In their first bilateral talks in over an year, the two leaders met for nearly an hour in Ufa's Congress Hall here on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and decided that National Security Advisers Ajit Doval and Sartaj Aziz will meet in New Delhi either next month or in September to discuss "all issues connected to terrorism".
PPS: One would imagine that ex-MEA types are the ones most aware of protocol, so their "Sushma Swaraj should have been there" is malicious, to say the least..... ranged against Modi are mediocrity and worse, both in his party and the Opposition, bureaucratic inertia and lack of institutional capacity.
What is Pakistan's job #1?Over the weekend, Pakistan’s national security advisor, Sartaj Aziz, called off planned talks with India’s national security advisor after a series of public disagreements escalated to the point of no return. Islamabad and New Delhi failed to agree on the scope of the agenda, despite a clear joint statement issued by Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi during their meeting last month in Ufa, Russia, which had set the parameters for India-Pakistan dialogue in coming months.
It’s Pakistan’s job to restore India’s, and the world’s, confidence in its intentions, and that will not happen with continued terrorist attacks across the border in India, and with blustery rhetoric about using nuclear weapons. Tackling terror, all terror, should be job number one for Islamabad.
[*][/url]In a way it is good that the pakis got confused by this verbiage and used that as a pretext to downhill ski. Had the words been crystal clear, they would have had to use a terrorist attack to derail things, or kill some more people along the LoC.rajpa wrote:With due deference to troll hunters, I will continue to respond...
If she had clarified all this before all the brouhaha started, perhaps ideally at Ufa itself, things may have turned out way better. Perhaps she could have helped Jaishankar draft those words in a crystal clear manner in Ufa.
Another Paki who was also not confused (so some Pakis do speak better Inglish than some Indians it looks likeAccording to ZeeNews , Geelani rejected the invitation on the grounds that the Kashmir issue was "ignored" in the joint statement between India and Pakistan after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian premier Modi held their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Ufa, Russia on July 10.
):Another Paki with remarkable comprehension skills:The Pakistan-India joint statement of 10 July, 2015 issued at Ufa carries the process of Pakistan’s capitulation and compliance with India’s one-sided demands a step further without any corresponding concessions from the Indian side. While mentioning the willingness of the two countries to discuss all outstanding issues, the joint statement avoids any reference to Kashmir, obviously to take into account Indian sensitivities. Mumbai case trial is the only issue which is specifically mentioned in the statement. In line with India’s unwillingness to resume a structured bilateral dialogue to discuss all outstanding issues until its demands concerning the Mumbai terrorist attacks are met, there was no agreement to resume the bilateral dialogue. Even in the context of the issue of terrorism, while Mumbai was specifically mentioned, no reference was made to Pakistan’s officially made allegations regarding India’s involvement in terrorist activities in Balochistan, Karachi and FATA. There was a reference in the joint statement to the holding of the meeting of the National Security Advisers of the two countries in New Delhi but only to discuss terrorism.
To ensure that this breaking out of an epidemic of comprehension skills was not contained only to the nation, I also checked dawn:Even a cursory look at the five points of the statement leaves little doubt that the text was prepared by the Indian officials to which their Pakistani counterparts willy-nilly agreed. Leaving aside the two points regarding the release of arrested fishermen and religious tourism, the substance of the other two is skewed towards the Indian agenda and the remaining one relates to meetings of military officers essentially for matters pertaining to LOC and the borders. While the preface sentence prior to the listing of the five steps does refer to collective responsibility for peace and development and the need for discussing “all outstanding issues”, the meeting envisaged between the Security Advisors is to be confined to “all issues connected to terrorism”. Add to this the 5th step which specifically speaks of expediting the “Mumbai case trial including additional information like providing voice samples”.
Sounds like the Injuns pulled a turn around from Sharm-el-Sheikh where it was a gullible My Man Singh who allowed Baloch stuff to be inserted and then had to furiously backpeddle once the shiite hit the fan. This time it was the pakis.The joint statement at Ufa was a disaster — Kashmir has not been specifically mentioned.
Why speak to the paki army with Nawaz Sharif as a proxy, if the army is the one controlling the agenda? In fact, why doesn't the army stop hiding behind the "elected government"? Why should India talk to a proxy of the actual power center that runs pakistan, and provide them the facade of a "democracy" so that it can be exploited for PR purposes that only serve the purpose of helping the paki army?There were basically two things Nawaz had to play off each other in Ufa: terrorism and Kashmir.
Modi had made it known that it was terrorism first if talks were going to happen or else it was going to be Indian foreign policy minus Pakistan.
If that sounds stupid and self-defeating, it is. But that’s for India to decide and Modi to realise.
Over here, the boys are not in favour of rapprochement and would never countenance letting Kashmir slip off the agenda.
Paki wants to do an equal-equal on "Indian" terrorism by including Samjhauta express (which was committed by pakistan) and Blockistan on the agenda, like in sharm-el-sheikh.If No 1 had just read “A meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to discuss all issues”, Nawaz would have had some wiggle room. It’s the “connected to terrorism” that made it Indian.
Same thing with No 5: the “including additional information like providing voice samples” was too specific and too Indian-ish. Extra clauses can be dangerous things.
After that, the only way Ufa was not going to be vetoed by the boys was if there had been a sixth point about Kashmir — or Balochistan or Samjhota. Some kind of red meat.
[*] The concept of 'sex education' is not mentioned in the Book, therefore it is not halalLAHORE - The 50-year-old tutor arrested Wednesday for raping and filming young Lahore schoolgirls last night told The Nation he had abused them for “sex education”.[*] In an exclusive interview at Green Town police station, Hussein Ahmed Khan confessed he had sexually assaulted as many as 20 young girls over a six-year period, – all the victims are under 13.
I think there were some ten to 20 girls, my students with whom I had relationships. I have been teaching students for many years,” he added. He denied, however, that he had raped any of his victims. “I just tried to educate the children about sex. I performed many sexual acts with the students on camera but did not rape them,” he confessed.
His claim was rejected by detectives who said he can be seen raping a young pupil in one of the videos.
The arrest of Hussein Ahmed Khan and the discovery of his large collection of child abuse videos emerged barely two weeks after more than 280 children were found to have been drugged, raped, and beaten by a child ***** gang in Kasur, 60 kilometres from Lahore in north Punjab. Police in Kasur faced nationwide condemnation when it emerged that the abuse had continued for more than eight years without any action taken against the gang.
There is no evidence to link the two scandals but the number of film clips involved and the tutor’s access to “dozens” of young girls at his academy suggests the scale of abuse may be far bigger.
Pakistan will have to find a 'new tenant' for their 'property'The United States government will not certify Pakistan’s counter-terrorism operations in North Waziristan over recent months as adequately damaging to the Haqqani network, a U.S.-designated terror group. The U.S. Department of Defense has reportedly notified the Pakistani embassy in Washington of the development, according to a report by Dawn. The non-certification of the Pakistani counter-terror campaign, known as Operation Zarb-e-Azb, will block the release of a new tranche of U.S. financial assistance for the Pakistani military from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). CSF support had been extended for a year with a specific stipulation that the U.S. Department of Defense would certify the effectiveness of Pakistani military operations in North Waziristan against the Haqqani network.
MurthyB wrote:...
To ensure that this breaking out of an epidemic of comprehension skills was not contained only to the nation, I also checked dawn
And the Express Tribune, e.g., even on that contentious preamble:Mr Modi and Mr Sharif, during their meeting – which followed the worst patch in ties for years – agreed on a roadmap of future engagement starting with a meeting of the National Security Advisers in Delhi for discussing terrorism related concerns.
i.e., the Express Tribune wrote on July 13 what was confirmed by Sushma Swaraj in her press conference of August 22.There was a reference to overall ties in the joint statement; “India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development. To do so, they are prepared to discuss all outstanding issues.”
However, there was no mention of either Kashmir or the fate of the composite dialogue suspended following the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.
This unilateral outbreak of outstanding comprehension skills in Pakistan must be dealt with, no doubt, by an emergency Aman-ki-Asha junket and back-channels diplomacy missions by the ex-MEA types who, just as sure as facts remain facts, are totally, incurably and unchangeably confused.In Ufa, the two leaders exchanged views on issues of bilateral and regional interest and agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development. It was also decided that national security advisers of the two countries will first meet in New Delhi and then in Islamabad particularly to discuss all issues connected to terrorism.
don't worry, the above is just high-grade paki heroin talking.Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on Monday laid out an elaborate progress report on the National Action Plan (NAP), saying that terrorism in the country had been brought down by 70 per cent, adding that no militant network could now operate in Pakistan.
A_Gupta wrote:I have absolutely no doubt that Pakistan is busy organizing Chechen rebels, so that "suppressing" them can be its gun-to-the-head and service for its new friend, Russia.
The world's largest bat is the flying fox bats, the Australian one that weighs upto 1 kilogram, and the Filipino one that can weigh upto 1.2kg.Hundreds of horrible and giant bats, weighting up to five kilogramme each, have attacked and devoured fruit orchards in the suburban area of Sahiwal Town, thereby creating financial concerns for the farmers.
Their flying from their abodes presents terrifying scene at the sunset. The heavyweight bats hover in the sky in the daylight. The owners of the orchards said that a few months ago, the bats having more than five kilogrammes of weight each stormed their orchards of mangoes, pear, bananas and dates trees and within days, they eat up all the fruit which they had to sell in the market to earn a living. The famers said that they had become hand to mouth because of the assault of the bats. They are hesitant to cultivate their crops because of presence of the huge number of the bats in the area, they said. They added that the people especially children remain sleepless in the nights due to the bats’ terror.
CheersNawaz Sharif’s problem is that he wants to be his own foreign policy expert which is where he creates problems not only for himself but for the country he is supposed to be leading.
The goof-up about the meeting in Delhi between the two national security advisers is a perfect example of this. The PM seemed to have no idea of what he was putting his signature to at Ufa, the Russian city where he met Narendra Modi. Among the steps agreed to were: “a meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to discuss all issues connected to terrorism.” Period: nothing about the mountains or the rivers or the climate or Kashmir…all issues connected to terrorism. Does this leave anything to the imagination?
Furthermore, “Both sides agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.” This is the Indian take on Mumbai and our PM, his own Kissinger, agreed to this.
When the Indians said only terrorism-related issues would be discussed they were quoting Ufa, not making anything up. Good for us that they dragged in the Hurriyat – insisting, foolishly, that no one from the Pakistani side should so much as have a cup of tea with its leaders in Delhi – which gave us the pretext to get out of this mess.
Maybe someone should remind this joker AA that the terrorist attack on the pakistan school was in Dec 2014, so nothing has been blunted except the mind of pakis overall. Looks like the RAPEs are all craving for a military dictatorship to run the government -- more army and more islam is the only correct answer to pakistan's problems, as we all know.Terrorism has not been eliminated but it is on the run, its force blunted. As a result, the sense of hopelessness defining Pakistan’s state of mind just the middle of last year is no more. There’s hope in the air that Pakistan’s condition is finally on the mend. Leadership has done this, but military leadership not any other kind.
If I may butt into this discussion, even though the thread has moved on quite a bit, I think the main point of why the ex-MEA types are up in arms against what happened is being missed. Golum's non arrival for talks indicates a new phase of a freeze in relations. The government's explicit drawing of red lines, as shown by the First Post article also shows that the GoI has adopted a no nonsense approach - it has finally grown a pair.A_Gupta wrote:Actually, whoever authored it, the UFA statement was issued by the Foreign Secretaries, Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar and his Pakistan counterpary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry. e.g., seerajpa wrote:Folks - We need to look at this Ufa thing from the perspective of NSA vs MEA. The ex-MEA type people (and some other types as well) have expressed that the language of the terms and conditions in Ufa was not clearly specified enough to keep the agenda for the talks confined to terrorism. This let the genie out of the bottle in terms of the K-factor. Now if Doval, his team, Sushma, her team had gotten together and drafted the language, it would have been clearer. That is the argument.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/resources/ ... 407431.ece
If the Foreign Secretaries read it out, on what basis do the ex-MEA types say that MEA didn't have any input into the language, and imply that it was NSA + Prime Minister that put this together without MEA review?
PS: the news says that the Indian delegation that met Pakistan in Ufa included NSA and Foreign Secretary. e.g., http://www.thehindu.com/news/resources/ ... 407431.ece
Are the ex-MEA types saying that there should have been no Ufa statement without Sushma Swaraj being physically present?
The point being missed here is that Jaishankar is a Modi hand picked Foreign Secretary - he sent the previous Foreign Secretary packing (if you ask me that was his single biggest foreign policy blooper, but then that's for a different discussion). To think that the wording would have been different if the Foreign Minister was present would imply that there's a difference in perception with regard to Pakistan between the Minister and Modi. The other would be to imply that Jaishankar is somehow incompetent. The fact remains the he is one of the most competent MEA officials we have had for a long time. Folks seem to forget his diplomatic skills when he negotiated the nuclear deal during which he had to walk through several snake pits. If anyone wants a lesson on "precise wording" of documents they should dig up the deals signed with respect to the nuclear deal to get an idea. Compared to that the UFA document was something that one scribbles during a lazy Sunday afternoon.JE Menon wrote:>>I am happy to believe it to be part of Modi's design to put Doval as the tip of the spear and use Sushma to deliver the hammer.
This is again your perception. So far as we know, there is nothing to validate this analogy.
>>That may have been the reason why Doval and not Sushma was there at Ufa.
If memory serves, Sushma was elsewhere at the time. Jaishankar (as the link posted above shows) drafted it with his team and his Pak counterpart. In fact, I think it was jointly read out by them after.
Thanks Disha. In my professional life I've found that most often than not it's the simple and obvious explanation that is the correct one. We often don't factor in the more base instincts that form a part of us when analysing motive.disha wrote:Amit, long and nice post.
I had tweeted earlier that all the vitriol poured on Modi from within are more concerned about "Loss of free mutton and free wine" at exotic locales.
Given that bakis are bakis, always selling out their bodies - will not be surprised that the loss of free mutton also includes loss of free "baki meat" the walking kind.
I hope they didn't mistake jinns and houris for bats, despite the resemblance? Surely, considering the amount of service jinns and houris render to the Pak Awam, they are entitled to a free partake of luscious fruits grown in the land created for the Awam?A_Gupta wrote:http://nation.com.pk/national/25-Aug-20 ... t-orchards
Giant bats devour fruit orchardsThe world's largest bat is the flying fox bats, the Australian one that weighs upto 1 kilogram, and the Filipino one that can weigh upto 1.2kg.Hundreds of horrible and giant bats, weighting up to five kilogramme each, have attacked and devoured fruit orchards in the suburban area of Sahiwal Town, thereby creating financial concerns for the farmers.
Their flying from their abodes presents terrifying scene at the sunset. The heavyweight bats hover in the sky in the daylight. The owners of the orchards said that a few months ago, the bats having more than five kilogrammes of weight each stormed their orchards of mangoes, pear, bananas and dates trees and within days, they eat up all the fruit which they had to sell in the market to earn a living. The famers said that they had become hand to mouth because of the assault of the bats. They are hesitant to cultivate their crops because of presence of the huge number of the bats in the area, they said. They added that the people especially children remain sleepless in the nights due to the bats’ terror.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey-head ... cteristics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_gol ... flying_fox
The Indian one can be 1.6 kg.
http://www.batrescue.org.au/website/ind ... &Itemid=54
ISLAMABAD:
Afghanistan has refused to participate in a meeting of the Joint Economic Commission (JEC) at the last minuteas relations with Pakistan are at the lowest ebb after recent outburst by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani against Islamabad.
Afghan Finance Minister Eklil Hakimi on Sunday told his counterpart Ishaq Dar about his government’s decision to call off the JEC meeting just before his plane was scheduled to take off for Islamabad, said sources in the Ministry of Finance.
[*] If, this is correct, then he decided to do away with diplomatic nicetiesHakim made the phone call at a time when Pakistani protocol staff was preparing to welcome the delegation at the Benazir Bhutto International Airport, Islamabad.[*] The 10th JEC meeting, which was expected to cover all economic matters, was slated for August 24 and 25.
In what appeared to be an Afghan government-backed move, people last week staged violent protests outside Pakistan’s embassy in Kabul, particularly when a Pakistani delegation was present in the premises. The delegation had been there to discuss the fate of millions of Afghan refugees staying in Pakistan for the last four decades.
According to sources, a stern warningby the head of Pakistan’s delegation for a tit-for-tat response in Islamabad forced the Afghan government to take the step.
Some of the Afghan religious scholars last week called for a ban on the use of Pakistani currency, which has been a common practice for years in parts of Afghanistan especially in border regions.
Regional and international developments of the last two weeks suggest that some forces [*]were joining hands to harm Islamabad’s interests, [/b]according to defence analysts. The military’s decision to launch a ground offensive in the restive tribal areas against militants had drawn appreciation from the western and European powers.
[*] Read RAA
However, now questions are being raised over the military operation and the US has hinted at stopping the release of $300 million in Coalition Support Fund on the ground that Pakistan was not taking action against the Haqqani militant network.
Are you suggesting that doing it with 13 years olds is also not mentioned in The Book? I thought that was Halal,Falijee wrote: [*] The concept of 'sex education' is not mentioned in the Book, therefore it is not halal
There is a big difference between SeS and Ufa.RamaY wrote:We can't absolve Modi from Ufa.
If MMS is guilty of Sharam-e-Shek, Modi is guilty of Ufa. We can't simply blame the MEA babus unless we are accepting that NM & SS aren't in control even after 1Yr. Please remember that they got only 5yrs not life long posts.
We can & will forgive NM of Ufa IFF this is part of a larger game. That we will know in another Yr.
Doubts about LNG supply in winter
ISLAMABAD: Amid legal and operational hiccups, the Pakistan State Oil (PSO) officially conceded on Tuesday its inability to ensure smooth supply of 300 million cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) until October, raising fears of a continued gas shortage in winter.
RAW conspiracy onlee.This comes at a time when a team of the Qatar Gas management, which visited Islamabad on Monday, declined to enter into a long-term agreement with the PSO because of at least five major shortcomings on part of the government.
The PSO said Qatar Gas had also turned down its request to extend validity of offer for LNG supply from four ships a month to two and further reduction in price by 20 cents per MMBTU.
The shortcomings include non-finalisation of a tripartite agreement among three state-run companies – SSGCL, SNGPL and PSO –, absence of a standby letter of credit (SBLC) to be provided by the PSO, shortfall in dredging at the port to enable Qflex ships and absence of commercial agreements with independent power producers for payment mechanism. On top of that, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has not yet finalised an LNG sale price. A sale-purchase agreement between Qatar Gas and PSO has also not been finalised.
So the whole LNG from Qatar will inshallah reduce energy problem was just for public consumption. I bet most of the CPEC projects will go the same way except probably the road itself.“This means Interstate Gas Company Limited, which originally prepared the LNG transaction, and PSO, which was responsible for importing the commodity, have failed to deliver on one of the most important energy supply projects,” the official said.
Link to postjohneeG wrote:The following is Parliament resolution on Jammu and Kashmir.LinkParliament Resolution on Jammu and Kashmir
Following increasing terrorist violence and Pakistan’s attempts to highlight the Kashmir dispute, both houses of the Indian Parliament unanimously adopted a resolution on February 22, 1994, emphasizing that Jammu and Kashmir was an integral part of India, and that Pakistan must vacate parts of the State under its occupation. The text of the resolution follows.
"This House note with deep concern Pakistan's role in imparting training to the terrorists in camps located in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, the supply of weapons and funds, assistance in infiltration of trained militants, including foreign mercenaries into Jammu and Kashmir with the avowed purpose of creating disorder, disharmony and subversion:
reiterates that the militants trained in Pakistan are indulging in murder, loot and other heinous crimes against the people, taking them hostage and creating an atmosphere of terror;
Condemns strongly the continued support and encouragement Pakistan is extending to subversive and terrorist activities in the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir;
Calls upon Pakistan to stop forthwith its support to terrorism, which is in violation of the Simla Agreement and the internationally accepted norms of inter-State conduct and is the root cause of tension between the two countries reiterates that the Indian political and democratic structures and the Constitution provide for firm guarantees for the promotion and protection of human rights of all its citizens;
regard Pakistan's anti-India campaign of calumny and falsehood as unacceptable and deplorable.
notes with deep concern the highly provocative statements emanating from Pakistan urges Pakistan to refrain from making statements which vitiate the atmosphere and incite public opinion;
expresses regret and concern at the pitiable conditions and violations of human rights and denial of demoractic freedoms of the people in those areas of the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, which are under the illegal occupation of Pakistan;
On behalf of the People of India,
Firmly declares that-
(a) The State of Jammu & Kashmir has been, is and shall be an integral part of India and any attempts to separate it from the rest of the country will be resisted by all necessary means;
(b) India has the will and capacity to firmly counter all designs against its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity;
and demands that -
(c) Pakistan must vacate the areas of the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, which they have occupied through aggression; and resolves that -
(d) all attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of India will be met resolutely."
The Resolution was unanimously adopted. Mr. Speaker: The Resolution is unanimously passed.
February 22, 1994
I think the Parliament resolution actually supersedes Shimla agreement because Parliament says that Pakistan has violated Shimla agreement. If Pakistan has violated Shimla agreement, then what is the validity of Shimla agreement anymore?
It seems to me that Parliament resolution and UN resolution are much more in sync while Shimla agreement seems to be an attempt to accept LOC as de-facto international border in J&K.
Yes, that angle had not escaped me.amit wrote: Now look at the folks who are vociferous in calling the NSA all types of names? Ex-MEA and other assorted cretin who are on the roster for a call from the friendly Paki Embassy for the next Track Thoo meeting either in Islamabad, Dubai, Bangkok, whatever. Who likes it if someone takes away your next free junket? Please don't read any (mis)guided intellectual disagreement behind all these "protests". Going by the track record of the Pakis vis a vis US officials which we have gotten hints about in various articles, I wouldn't be surprised that if these "meetings" included "extra type of entertainment" over and above the kebabs and briyanis.
+1disha wrote:Amit, long and nice post.
I had tweeted earlier that all the vitriol poured on Modi from within are more concerned about "Loss of free mutton and free wine" at exotic locales.
Given that bakis are bakis, always selling out their bodies - will not be surprised that the loss of free mutton also includes loss of free "baki meat" the walking kind.
I'll also go off-topic and agree with you.Shaun wrote:Guptaji , deejaji ,Murty Saab and all...there will be always a class of people who will always remain blind ( it is another fact that, they want to remain blind) to the facts because of their perpetual hate for one man, like with porkis you can not reason with them using logic and raw facts.
The point is correct, that if India was prosperous, it would not have to export manpower. But in what way is it Modi's failure that one has to lash out at him? And there are gains beyond anything material from this UAE diplomacy. For one, it has delivered a solid kick to Pakistan.No government whose citizens need dirty, poorly paid jobs in foreign countries where every tin-pot despot and dictator kicks them around can claim a place at the world's high table. If India were strong enough to persuade the UAE government, it wouldn't need to export manpower. That will continue for as long as slogans such as 'Make in India', 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' and 'Start up India, Stand up India' remain slogans that don't translate into minimum prosperity for all. The only gain from Modi's jaunt seems to be a temple in the UAE.
Sounding a warning over the Lashkar-e-Taiba’s plans to “indigenise” its operations in Jammu and Kashmir, a U.S. expert on the LeT says the group responsible for the Mumbai 26/11 attacks could benefit from tensions between India and Pakistan. “Even when I had spoken to members of the LeT earlier, they had confirmed that they were looking to “get things going”.
“I do not believe we are going to see a return to the levels of violence we saw in Kashmir during the 1990s or post-2000. What we might see and what we are seeing is a rise from a few years ago,” says Professor Stephen Tankel, who has written a book on the LeT’s rise, and was appointed senior adviser at the U.S. Department of Defence for 2014.
Significantly, Dr. Tankel says he has seen “no evidence” of a “strategic shift” in the Pakistani establishment’s support for the LeT and its leader Hafiz Saeed after the Peshawar massacre in December.
In the aftermath of the brutal attack that saw the death of more than 140 schoolchildren, Islamabad had drawn up a “National Action Plan” vowing to crack down on all terror groups.
“LeT has uses for the Pakistani state both externally and internally,” Dr. Tankel told The Hindu in an interview, explaining why no crackdown has occurred on the LeT.
“LeT doesn’t support attacks on Pakistan, it provides intelligence about the other militant groups, it has been used to attack other groups such as the TTP [Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan]. It has internal utility as a result.” However, he does feel there is a “debate within the establishment” over whether groups such as the LeT should be cut off by the state, while the Army was clearly going after groups such as the TTP and the LeJ [Lashkar-e-Jhangvi] in recent months. The Pakistani government has always denied that it provides any support to the LeT and its off-shoot, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, claiming that it had banned the organisations on several occasions.
“U.S. can’t wave a magic wand”
Dr. Tankel rejects the idea held by many in India that the U.S. has focussed more on Pakistani action against the Haqqani network that attacks its troops in Afghanistan than it does the LeT that targets India. “The U.S. can’t wave a magic wand and get Pakistan to take certain actions,” Dr. Tankel replied to a specific question about the ease of mobility for Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi, and a lenient plea bargain to 26/11 conspirator David Headley in the U.S.
“The Haqqanis have attacked the U.S. primarily; so they do get more focus. But the U.S. has pressured Pakistan to prosecute the LeT, restrain them from further attacks, and to take actions against their leaders,” he says.
Based on his study of the group in Pakistan and operatives in Europe and other countries, Dr. Tankel says there are growing divisions within the LeT, including on the succession plan for Hafiz Saeed.
“I think there are divisions in the LeT between those who want to push for political influence in Pakistani society, and those who want to stick to militancy. Also those who want to globalise, and those who don’t. There are those more willing to abide by state diktats, and some who want to fight the state. And then there is the generational shift,” he says explaining that the group could face pressure from those such as the Islamic State.
He says that as a result, an “Osama-style” operation against Hafiz Saeed may not actually shut down the LeT’s operations against India.
“Any plan of Indian operatives targeting Hafiz Saeed would have a very destabilising effect on the region. So I can’t suggest it. I would just say the costs and benefits have to be weighed,” Dr. Tankel, who is writing a second book about the U.S.’s counter-terrorism partners, said.