Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-July 10, 2015

[member_23370]

These US analysts crack me up. As if India has ever listened to these morons in past that India will care about these vermins now. A targeted killing of D company and Hafiz saeed would be welcomed by most Indians.

[prahaar]

The point is correct, that if India was prosperous, it would not have to export manpower. But in what way is it Modi's failure that one has to lash out at him? And there are gains beyond anything material from this UAE diplomacy. For one, it has delivered a solid kick to Pakistan.

Anyway, I told this person that he had Lahori logic for sending me such an enormously stupid article.

A_Guptaji, game should be played based on one's strengths and not wait for the strengths that one should ideally achieve. India has been consistently trying (with different governments), with varying degrees of success to utilize its human resource as a commodity, on the same lines as products/commodities which the West earlier and now far east uses with great effect. I do not see anything wrong in promoting greater mobility for jobs across the borders, given the demographic realities, India must leverage this lever effectively.

This does not reduce the need for India centric development as well (Make in India, Start Up, Digital, etc.). But I do not see the need to wait for the latter to be attained before working on the former.

[shaun]

may be we can start profiling this presstitutes . Seems Aaman ki tamasha have given this pseudo intellectuals a solid platform to propagate nonsense and prosper. Apart from PS types who are coming up with farticle on daily basis , we need to need to watch this "people".

A lay mans perspective
http://www.thefrustratedindian.com/2015 ... vel-talks/

[somnath]

>>This could also be an attempt to drive a wedge in the Cabinet.

Not sure about "attempts", but there are bound to be treading on toes. Fact is that since independence, most PMs have driven foreign policy. All policy initiatives (and the big files - US, Russia, China, Pak) have been handled by the PM, while the EAM has generally run the foreign office admiinstratively. This has been true for most PMs, barring ABV (where Jaswant Singh drove policy when he was EAM), and Deve Gowda (who delegated the whole thing to IK Gujral). Even a "weak" MMS drove foreign policy by himself.

Its natural as well, there are very very few areas where a PM can have direct personal impact without bothering about legislations - foreign policy is the largest and most visible of that small group.

True in the US as well - as Henry Kissinger famously said, the most effective NSA is the one who is also the Secretary of State (or some such)!

Modi seems to be banking on a strategy of ignoring Pakistan for the medium term by setting out "red lines" that obviate talks, and depending on gross national power differentials to prevail at the end. It may succeed, it may not. Issue is internal (and external) politics. If Pak heats up LoC just to spite India, how much will we be able to keep the general internal noise levels under control so that the international community doesnt start squealing? How much opposition taunt will the govt be able to digest for every incremental terror attack?

[sum]

“Any plan of Indian operatives targeting Hafiz Saeed would have a very destabilising effect on the region. So I can’t suggest it. I would just say the costs and benefits have to be weighed,” Dr. Tankel, who is writing a second book about the U.S.’s counter-terrorism partners, said.

Just replace "Any plan of Indian operatives targeting Hafiz Saeed " with xyz and its the same sentence over and over again for anything India does w.r.t TSP

Dont these guys have anything new to say?

[eklavya]

Today, Suhasini Haidar has written an article in The Hindu along the same lines that NSA is taking precedence over the MEA in the scheme of things currently. They are all crawling out of the woodworks for a few reasons:

• Insidious political agenda
• To satisfy foreign masters who forced Aman-ki-Asha on us
• To appear 'fair, neutral and detached', sometimes an obsessive disease with many Indians
• To feel comfortable when they meet their Pakistani counterparts in future Track-II meets

The fact that Ms. Swaraj brilliantly demolished the Pakistani perfidy in a breathtaking attack with an ease that belied the savagery underneath shows that she was on-board all along. It would be simply impossible for someone on the periphery to marshall the arguments with such confidence and clarity.

This could also be an attempt to drive a wedge in the Cabinet.

Sir, the hint is in the byline itself i.e. Haidar. The said journalist is the daughter in law of a former Foreign Secretary, and this tribe of useless retired IFS folk came to believe that the NSA post is theirs by rights, notwithstanding evidence to the contrary. The particular ex FS (when he was the serving FS) was not keen on marking the 25th anniversary of India's victory in 1971 as he did not wish to upset his Pakistani friends. The Service Chiefs told him to go play by/with himself.

Both journalist and father in law are on the executive committee of this "South Asian" septic tank:

http://www.ipcs.org/staff/

An affiliate of IPCS wrote this disgusting piece of seditious garbage in the HT:

http://www.ipcs.org/staff-profile/sushil-aaron-318.html

http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/ ... 83696.aspx

To restate, Modi’s hardline approach has not yet achieved any of the outcomes that are in India’s interests. All that this policy has yielded is a lot of anti-Pakistan sentiment, which has no policy utility beyond translating into a subliminal tirade against Indian Muslims on television on a regular basis. In effect, the policy is generating toxic effects in Indian society and on its public sphere rather achieving any strategic objective with Pakistan.

If a non-state actor like the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, decides to drive a wedge between the two countries — which is not inconceivable for figures with apocalyptic worldviews — it is not clear who Ajit Doval will lean on to prevent an escalation, especially when he is seen as a mastermind of the current strategy, a champion of hot pursuit of militants into Pakistan and a proponent of India punching well above its weight.

The journalist's father in law is an ex senior fellow of the United States Institute of Peace:

http://www.ipcs.org/staff-profile/ambsa ... r-174.html

Another ex USIP senior fellow is the well known traitor Praveen Swami:

http://www.usip.org/publications/new-se ... tute-peace

Our enemies within are operating openly. We know who they are and we have nothing but contempt for them.

[partha]

Ajit Doval on NSA-MEA "tension" -



I don't understand why there is such hue and cry about NSA + PMO driving Pak policy. I think it signals that Modi govt wants to engage Pakistan primarily on security (terrorism) issues which is good, no? Modi govt is trying to make Pak sponsored terrorism the main thing in India-Pak relations which also explains Ufa. Ufa is a diplomatic victory if you ask me. No Kashmir mention at all. It may have actually added to the civil military tension in Pakistan! So essentially what GoI is saying is "We don't want to waste time talking to Pakistan, we would rather focus on economy but if we have to talk at all, it will only be about Paki terrorism and nothing else."

[SSridhar]

Ajit Doval on NSA-MEA "tension"

The more I hear Ajit Doval, the more I get impressed.

[JE Menon]

Somnath,

That sentence was not by me. I was quoting another post earlier.

>>Modi seems to be banking on a strategy of ignoring Pakistan for the medium term by setting out "red lines" that obviate talks, and depending on gross national power differentials to prevail at the end. It may succeed, it may not.

I agree. However, even if it fails, we can be sure of one thing. It is no worse than what has happened over the last 6 decades. And this is no real fault of the previous government either, although one can agree/disagree about whose approach is more satisfying to the average Indian.

The problem is a simple one: we are stuck with an absolutist, constitutionally bigoted and terror-mongering state with a single-minded focus on the dismemberment of India, driven by religious and faux imperial tendencies. Dealing with it requires more or less the same skills required to deal with a rabid canine: sometimes nice doggy, and sometimes a good whack - every whack must weaken it permanently, so it will be trending towards weakness to the point where it cannot bite, only bark, and eventually not even to bark. Sometimes the whack is visible, and more often it is invisible and intangible from the layman's perspective. But the contours of it can be seen from the steady deterioration of everything that makes Pakistan a "nation", discernible from the news and observations posted on this, and a couple of other threads (such as Pak economy stress watch). It will be a long process, because this rabid mongrel is of occasional high value and latent low value to some others. So we must be patient and steadfast. From what I can see, despite the occasional recoverable hiccup, we have been so through respective governments.

[shaun]

eklavya saab many many thanks for the post ,a very good way to start.Just look at the funding, I guess , the situation created by GOI is affecting their funding so is the "khuzli" .

In the past, the Institute has received project support from various institutions and ministries that include the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the Government of Jammu and Kashmir, the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, the MacArthur Foundation, the Korea Foundation, the Japan Foundation, the Ford Foundation, and Ploughshares among others.

[eklavya]

Good find Shaun.

Does anyone remember who the MEA was when Shivshankar Menon was NSA? Why not? Because he was NSA, FS and MEA in one.

The heroes of sharm el sheikh and their supporters need to hang their heads in shame. Instead they are trying to teach statecraft to this government. Given half a chance, these people would have given up Siachen and repealed the application of AFSPA in J&K. They are much below contempt.

[somnath]

The problem is a simple one: we are stuck with an absolutist, constitutionally bigoted and terror-mongering state with a single-minded focus on the dismemberment of India, driven by religious and faux imperial tendencies. Dealing with it requires more or less the same skills required to deal with a rabid canine: sometimes nice doggy, and sometimes a good whack

I agree. We arent Robinson Crusoe's in this though - South Korea has to deal with North Korea, a very similar case. The US has had to for a long time, while they were stationed in Afghanistan.

Actually, I dont think having a variable strategy, one that keeps changing is a bad idea. There seems to be a fetish around "consistency of policy" amongst the commentariat, but why should our strategy be consistent, when the Pak state keeps morphing?

Having said that, what we need are real capacities to hit the Pak state where it hurts most - we dont seem to have any. At the same time, we need enough tools, maturity and political finesse to keep temperatures down - nothing plays into PAk hands than high pitched rhetoric.

[somnath]

Good find Shaun.

Does anyone remember who the MEA was when Shivshankar Menon was NSA? Why not? Because he was NSA, FS and MEA in one.

SS Menon became NSA after having retired from the office of FS. He was acknowledged to be the brightest star in the IFS, superceding 6-7 seniors for the FS role.

BTW, Suhasini Haidar happens to be the daughter of Subramanyam Swamy

[shaun]

Actually, I dont think having a variable strategy, one that keeps changing is a bad idea. There seems to be a fetish around "consistency of policy" amongst the commentariat, but why should our strategy be consistent, when the Pak state keeps morphing?

This what Mr Menon have said “You don’t measure a patient’s temperature every 10 minutes and keep changing the medication. You know the disease and you need to address the causes. The causes from our point of view are terrorism and the state sponsored angle to it,”

Having said that, what we need are real capacities to hit the Pak state where it hurts most - we dont seem to have any. At the same time, we need enough tools, maturity and political finesse to keep temperatures down - nothing plays into PAk hands than high pitched rhetoric.

Duhhh..GOI have made no rhetoric statement and hurting Pakistanis most by ignoring them so is the recent nuclear rhetoric from taklu gollum .

[Neela]

Im trying to figure out why Suhasini Haider writes like she does. There seems to be a fundamental disconnect here.
Modi + Doval want to engage with Pak and halt terror as a first step.
The track 2 cracks want to engage Pak irrespective of terror and want India to do this and that. The question to ask here is what tangible benfits has any overtures from India yielded. There is nothign to show here. And Pak policy of terror continues. Yet they pursue this line? As some soul said, expecting different results from the same experiment is lunacy . What is worrisome is Indian deaths do not matter for these lot.
So what makes them continue this line? is their idealogical moorings so strong they cannat even fathom coming out of it?

[shaun]

Good find Shaun.

Does anyone remember who the MEA was when Shivshankar Menon was NSA? Why not? Because he was NSA, FS and MEA in one.

The heroes of sharm el sheikh and their supporters need to hang their heads in shame. Instead they are trying to teach statecraft to this government. Given half a chance, these people would have given up Siachen and repealed the application of AFSPA in J&K. They are much below contempt.

Talking about heads in shame ...

Criticising the ruling National Democratic Alliance regime over the collapse of the proposed National Security Adivosr-level talks with Pakistan, former external affairs minister Salman Khurshid on Sunday said that it has a great inclination of pulling rabbits out of hats.

Expressing his concern over the talks not taking place after so much hype post last month’s discussions between the Indian and Pakistan prime ministers in Ufa, Russia, on the sidelines of the SCO Summit, Khurshid said that this was nothing but a case of constant flip flop by the Narendra Modi-led government that was almost always landing in a flop state on foreign policy since it came to power in May last year.

He said: “Flip flop, flip flop and finally flop, this is what our government has to show. The problem is, did you (Indian government) not know that this would happen?”

“They (India) thinks they (Pakistan) are coming here to talk to them (New Delhi) on or about terrorism, which we (India) accuses them of. How can we (India) talk on something which they (Pakistan) have categorically said they do not accept and will never accept,” he added.

On the question of the Hurriyat leadership and other separatist representatives meeting with the Pakistan NSA Sartaj Aziz in New Delhi on Sunday, and Pakistan’s insistence that the views of the Hurriyat be taken onboard during the talks, Khurshid, said, “Hurriyat can’t be a part of He maintained that the present government at the Centre had come up short in terms of what to expect and what not to expect.

He asked, “Why did you (India) not expect that they (Pakistan) would not do it?”

“This government has a great inclination of pulling rabbits out of hats. We are all disappointed, the whole country is disappointed. A huge loss is being caused to our people. We are losing every day,” the former external affairs minister said.

Khurshid’s criticism comes a day after Pakistan cancelled the NSA-level talks following an exchange of verbal volleys with the Indian government over what would constitute the agenda for the talks.

Pakistan insisted that the Kashmir issue must be taken up at the meeting that was scheduled for August 23 and 24, while India insisted that the discussions must remain focused on the issue of terror and violence as agreed upon by the prime ministers of the two countries during their meeting on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Ufa, Russia.

[shaun]

Im trying to figure out why Suhasini Haider writes like she does. There seems to be a fundamental disconnect here.
Modi + Doval want to engage with Pak and halt terror as a first step.
The track 2 cracks want to engage Pak irrespective of terror and want India to do this and that. The question to ask here is what tangible benfits has any overtures from India yielded. There is nothign to show here. And Pak policy of terror continues. Yet they pursue this line? As some soul said, expecting different results from the same experiment is lunacy . What is worrisome is Indian deaths do not matter for these lot.
So what makes them continue this line? is their idealogical moorings so strong they cannat even fathom coming out of it?

yup they thrive on this misinformation and thinks that this will keep them relevant. I don't think they have any ideological moorings , they are just opportunists.

[eklavya]

This is what S Swamy had to say:

http://www.oneindia.com/india/sharif-go ... 45863.html

New York, Aug 21: BJP leader Subramanian Swamy today described the Nawaz Sharif government in Pakistan as an "army-ISI puppet" which cannot deliver on any agreement with India.

Reacting to the Indo-Pak bickerings over NSA-level talks scheduled for Monday next, Swamy said here that Prime Minister Narendra Modi should cancel the talks.

India today asserted that it sticks to the commitment between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in Ufa to engage in a substantive discussion on terrorism.

Much better judgment of the situation than his daughter.

[eklavya]

Shivshankar Menom may or may not have been brighter than his contemporaries in the IFS. What is indisputable is that he sold his soul for the opportunity to serve in a high post under Dr Manmohan Singh, rather than serving the interests of his country. His master also sold his soul to the Gandhi mafia family and brought disgrace to the high constitutional office of the Prime Minister.

We will never forget that the sharm El sheikh statement was made after 26/11. It was at the time and remains to this day an unforgivable crime.

[somnath]

What is indisputable is that he sold his soul for the opportunity to serve in a high post under Dr Manmohan Singh, rather than serving the interests of his country. His master also sold his soul to the Gandhi mafia family and brought disgrace to the high constitutional office of the Prime Minister.

SS Menon is no relation of mine, but we shouldnt be so quick in attributing motives so quickly, and questioning people's patriotism.

The bolded part is key, interests of the country. How do you define that?

You could define it in terms of terrorist violence, and casualties as a result of them. From a peak in 2001, casualties have declined in J&K, its a secular decline.
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries ... alties.htm

You can define national interest as ceasefire along the LoC. MoD official figures for example show that violations shot up in 2014.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/450 ... tions.html

You could also define national interest as getting Dawood, Hafiz Sayeed etc.

Every individual could have a different take on what "national interest" is, including Arnab Goswami Each govt would try to represent what it thinks is the "greatest good for the greatest number" (in theory), or the "greatest good for the greatest number of elites" (in cynical views), or indeed somewhere in the middle.

Actually it might be a useful exercise to have a clinical view of what a collective notion of national interest is, in this forum. In sharp, quantifiable terms if possible.

[Arjun]

Wasn't that chap who held office before SS Menon - MK Narayanan responsible for what was perhaps the worst track record of any government as regards terrorism in India? The horror of UPA-1 dark days still reverberates....

[eklavya]

MKN was NSA during 26/11. He also headed the IB under Rajiv Gandhi. Another family retainer.

As for SSM, he was the FS who negotiated the draft of the sharm El sheikh announcement, and his reward for that perfidy was the NSA post.

[somnath]

Wasn't that chap who held office before SS Menon - MK Narayanan responsible for what was perhaps the worst track record of any government as regards terrorism in India? The horror of UPA-1 dark days still reverberates....

How do you define "worst"? Which kind of terrorism? Jihadi, ie, something that is largely in the bill of the Centre? Leftist insurgency (that is in the hinterland, largely in the bill of the state govt)?

26/11 happened under MKN's watch, and he was sacked subsequently. Was the Punjab militancy not "worst", under the legendary RN KAo's (who remained de facto NSA to Indira G, even though that position didnt exist) watch? Or wasnt Kargil the "worst", under Brajesh Midhra's watch?

As I said before, we need to quantify and define what "national interests" are. Any performance benchmarking will only be w.r.t the benchamrk.

[Arjun]

How do you define "worst"? Which kind of terrorism? Jihadi, ie, something that is largely in the bill of the Centre? Leftist insurgency (that is in the hinterland, largely in the bill of the state govt)?

26/11 happened under MKN's watch, and he was sacked subsequently. Was the Punjab militancy not "worst", under the legendary RN KAo's (who remained de facto NSA to Indira G, even though that position didnt exist) watch? Or wasnt Kargil the "worst", under Brajesh Midhra's watch?

As I said before, we need to quantify and define what "national interests" are. Any performance benchmarking will only be w.r.t the benchamrk.

India has had to contend with three broad forces that have a history of being inimical to national interests: Islamism, Christianism and Naxalism/ extreme left. Traditional theaters of operations against these have been respectively J&K, North East & Central Tribal belt.

We can separately evaluate what has been the trajectory of Indian success against these three forces, in their respective home theaters. As regards terrorist violence outside of these three theaters, UPA-1 was the worst in terms of terrorist killings. The SATP link to this statistic would validate, I'm sure...

[Arjun]

National Interest: anything that aligns with the long-term goal of India reclaiming her historical status as world leader from POV of economy and intellectual heritage

[member_29058]

What is indisputable is that he sold his soul for the opportunity to serve in a high post under Dr Manmohan Singh, rather than serving the interests of his country. His master also sold his soul to the Gandhi mafia family and brought disgrace to the high constitutional office of the Prime Minister.

SS Menon is no relation of mine, but we shouldnt be so quick in attributing motives so quickly, and questioning people's patriotism.

The bolded part is key, interests of the country. How do you define that?

You could define it in terms of terrorist violence, and casualties as a result of them. From a peak in 2001, casualties have declined in J&K, its a secular decline.
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries ... alties.htm

You can define national interest as ceasefire along the LoC. MoD official figures for example show that violations shot up in 2014.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/450 ... tions.html

You could also define national interest as getting Dawood, Hafiz Sayeed etc.

Every individual could have a different take on what "national interest" is, including Arnab Goswami Each govt would try to represent what it thinks is the "greatest good for the greatest number" (in theory), or the "greatest good for the greatest number of elites" (in cynical views), or indeed somewhere in the middle.

Actually it might be a useful exercise to have a clinical view of what a collective notion of national interest is, in this forum. In sharp, quantifiable terms if possible.

Bill Clinton said it all depends on what is the meaning of "IS" is.
He also said it all depends on what he thinks sex is.

Now it all depends on the the meaning of national interest is ...

I blew up the plane in national interest so that Pakis can't get to the plane. So I am a patriot and doing it in national interest.

[member_29058]

Wasn't that chap who held office before SS Menon - MK Narayanan responsible for what was perhaps the worst track record of any government as regards terrorism in India? The horror of UPA-1 dark days still reverberates....

How do you define "worst"? Which kind of terrorism? Jihadi, ie, something that is largely in the bill of the Centre? Leftist insurgency (that is in the hinterland, largely in the bill of the state govt)?

26/11 happened under MKN's watch, and he was sacked subsequently. Was the Punjab militancy not "worst", under the legendary RN KAo's (who remained de facto NSA to Indira G, even though that position didnt exist) watch? Or wasnt Kargil the "worst", under Brajesh Midhra's watch?

As I said before, we need to quantify and define what "national interests" are. Any performance benchmarking will only be w.r.t the benchamrk.

Again how do you define "IS"?
How do you define "WAS"?
How do you define "DID"? I mean D-I-D DID?

Who defines it? How do we take such definitions granted?

Very philosophical and deep discussions!

[Anindya]

Pakistan's economy facing existential crisis: Report

According to a report by non-profit organisation Raftar, Pakistan's economy continues to rely heavily on "commercial loans, concessionary donor loans and aid".

The meager tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.4 per cent has led to a public debt of 17 trillion rupees (USD 163 billion), which shows a three-fold increase since 2008 for the USD 232 billion economy, with 44 per cent of tax revenue going toward interest payments.

...Pakistan's economy grew at 4.24 per cent during the 2014-2015 fiscal year, while government expects that it will grow by 5 per cent this year.

[jrjrao]

Nothing interesting here. Just standard issue chut1yagiri from Shahzad Chaudhry. Note that even sophisticated sounding Pakis like this cannot help themselves from showing off their bigot genes:

Similarly, resettling long-gone Kashmiri Pundits back in secure settlements is meant to replicate the Israeli model of Zionising the West Bank and Gaza.

Rest of the garbage from this is very reassuring, however. Retired air-vice marshal Chaudhry promises that the Pakis may eat grass for one thousand years, but they still will not let go of the monkey trap. That sounds plenty like wonderful music, I think.

Theatre of the absurd?

[Tuvaluan]

National Interest: anything that aligns with the long-term goal of India reclaiming her historical status as world leader from POV of economy and intellectual heritage

This is not the right thread so I will respond to this in Indian Interests thread.

[chetak]

Pakistan's economy facing existential crisis: Report

According to a report by non-profit organisation Raftar, Pakistan's economy continues to rely heavily on "commercial loans, concessionary donor loans and aid".

The meager tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.4 per cent has led to a public debt of 17 trillion rupees (USD 163 billion), which shows a three-fold increase since 2008 for the USD 232 billion economy, with 44 per cent of tax revenue going toward interest payments.

...Pakistan's economy grew at 4.24 per cent during the 2014-2015 fiscal year, while government expects that it will grow by 5 per cent this year.

any idea of the inflation rates over the years??

[CRamS]

“LeT may benefit from Indo-Pak. tensions” - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

“I think there are divisions in the LeT between those who want to push for political influence in Pakistani society, and those who want to stick to militancy. Also those who want to globalise, and those who don’t. There are those more willing to abide by state diktats, and some who want to fight the state. And then there is the generational shift,” he says explaining that the group could face pressure from those such as the Islamic State.

If Suhasini Haidar has even a tiny fraction of her father's nationalist bone, she would question the above premises. First, what is this BS about LeT as being searate from TSP? I mean LeT is part of TSPA/ISI. She makes it sound as though LeT is from mars or something operating independently for its nterests. What a juvenile characterization.

And then this US anal-yst dude. I am sick and tired of this bogus distinction between "global" terrorists and LeT. Even of there is minute technicality between the two, how does it matter? LeT attacking India is not global but Al Quaida attacking US is "global"? And his bogus claim that US does not have a mgic wand. I challenge US to impose sanctions, complete aid cutoff and diplomatic pariah status to TSP until they go after LeT, and I can bet you, in less than a week TSP RAPE will be bending down on their knees begging for deliverance.

[Tuvaluan]

Mr. Shyam Saran peddles the same old tired horsesh!t from MMS times -- "talk to pakistan, and make trade a priority to pakistan". The first part of the article is mostly reasonable but fails miserably when it starts pretending that Pakistan is just like any other country.

http://thewire.in/2015/08/25/what-can-i ... stan-9167/

The promotion of bilateral trade and commercial exchanges should be a priority, opening up the Indian market to Pakistan’s key export commodities. The objective of these and other initiatives should be to foster, over a period of time, a more balanced and varied relationship between the two countries.

Managing Pakistan is a challenge but approaching it as a state with rational calculations which can be influenced through a varied set of political, economic, military and cultural instruments will do much to remove the self-imposed inhibitions on the conduct of our policy. The shift in mindset is fundamental. The rollout and use of the levers outlined here will need to be graduated and incremental, with careful regard to timing and opportunity. This is what we do with other states. This is what we need to do with Pakistan.

The last two paragraphs of SS's article is utterly silly and self-defeating -- pakistan will just take India's money and use it against India, and are plenty of precedents for that. Puts into question whether Mr. Shyam Saran understands the pakistan problem at all....seems like he doesn't, even though the earlier part of the article is an accurate reading of the situation. The solution sucks and fails to take into account previous attempts along these lines, even though SS's problem description is accurate.

But then, given that he is working for the Center for Policy research, maybe it is too much to expect a point of view that pushes India's interests rather than the US's standard line on this topic. (based on the funding sources of CPR mentioned in another thread)

[Abhay_S]

Nothing interesting here. Just standard issue chut1yagiri from Shahzad Chaudhry. Note that even sophisticated sounding Pakis like this cannot help themselves from showing off their bigot genes:

Similarly, resettling long-gone Kashmiri Pundits back in secure settlements is meant to replicate the Israeli model of Zionising the West Bank and Gaza.

Rest of the garbage from this is very reassuring, however. Retired air-vice marshal Chaudhry promises that the Pakis may eat grass for one thousand years, but they still will not let go of the monkey trap. That sounds plenty like wonderful music, I think.

Theatre of the absurd?

There was a third condition too which India’s esteemed External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (of the 2004 Agra debacle fame) had imposed – related to the time of the midnight of August 22, 2015 by which she would expect a response; for she had other important business to attend to like preparing to travel to Germany the next day.

that Should be Travel to Birather Islami Mulk Egypt & Germany. leaves this part out as momins will ask questions

[SBajwa]

by Rajpa
War is the last option, even for warriors.

We have already used the last option in 1948, 62, 65, 71, 99 etc.

[Cosmo_R]

Somnath,

That sentence was not by me. I was quoting another post earlier.

>>Modi seems to be banking on a strategy of ignoring Pakistan for the medium term by setting out "red lines" that obviate talks, and depending on gross national power differentials to prevail at the end. It may succeed, it may not.

I agree. However, even if it fails, we can be sure of one thing. It is no worse than what has happened over the last 6 decades. And this is no real fault of the previous government either, although one can agree/disagree about whose approach is more satisfying to the average Indian.

The problem is a simple one: we are stuck with an absolutist, constitutionally bigoted and terror-mongering state with a single-minded focus on the dismemberment of India, driven by religious and faux imperial tendencies. Dealing with it requires more or less the same skills required to deal with a rabid canine: sometimes nice doggy, and sometimes a good whack - every whack must weaken it permanently, so it will be trending towards weakness to the point where it cannot bite, only bark, and eventually not even to bark. Sometimes the whack is visible, and more often it is invisible and intangible from the layman's perspective. But the contours of it can be seen from the steady deterioration of everything that makes Pakistan a "nation", discernible from the news and observations posted on this, and a couple of other threads (such as Pak economy stress watch). It will be a long process, because this rabid mongrel is of occasional high value and latent low value to some others. So we must be patient and steadfast. From what I can see, despite the occasional recoverable hiccup, we have been so through respective governments.

Rabid canines are routinely put down.

[Gus]

Congress positions and talking points are all similar to Pakistan's. Then they get angry when somebody says 'go to Pakistan'.

[Anujan]

Nothing interesting here. Just standard issue chut1yagiri from Shahzad Chaudhry. Note that even sophisticated sounding Pakis like this cannot help themselves from showing off their bigot genes:

Similarly, resettling long-gone Kashmiri Pundits back in secure settlements is meant to replicate the Israeli model of Zionising the West Bank and Gaza.

Rest of the garbage from this is very reassuring, however. Retired air-vice marshal Chaudhry promises that the Pakis may eat grass for one thousand years, but they still will not let go of the monkey trap. That sounds plenty like wonderful music, I think.

Theatre of the absurd?

Actually Pakis get everything the other way around. Resettling "long-gone" Kashmiri pundits is like resettling Palestinian refugees in their lands. Does our vice marshal think that it is absurd? Israel being created on the basis of religion and claiming lands on the basis of religion is the same as Pakistan being created and claiming land on the basis of religion. Maybe he should think a bit before trotting out examples?

[KLNMurthy]

The problem is a simple one: we are stuck with an absolutist, constitutionally bigoted and terror-mongering state with a single-minded focus on the dismemberment of India, driven by religious and faux imperial tendencies. Dealing with it requires more or less the same skills required to deal with a rabid canine: sometimes nice doggy, and sometimes a good whack

I agree. We arent Robinson Crusoe's in this though - South Korea has to deal with North Korea, a very similar case. The US has had to for a long time, while they were stationed in Afghanistan.

Actually, I dont think having a variable strategy, one that keeps changing is a bad idea. There seems to be a fetish around "consistency of policy" amongst the commentariat, but why should our strategy be consistent, when the Pak state keeps morphing?

Having said that, what we need are real capacities to hit the Pak state where it hurts most - we dont seem to have any. At the same time, we need enough tools, maturity and political finesse to keep temperatures down - nothing plays into PAk hands than high pitched rhetoric.

Nobody in the world has the capacity to deal "effectively " with pakistan. China is just taking advantage of paki hatred of Hindus to exploit pakistan.

The only way to "play into pakistan 's hands" IMO is to reduce our defense capabilities or to destroy our own economy.

BTW pakistan will never give MFN or access to Central Asia to India.

There is nothing we can do to make pakistan more angry with India than they always are. Amit has provided a very good insight into what is the real meaning of the Indian commentators' rage against the Modi policy: they personally fear they may lose something (like track 2 junkets), and to them India==themselves.

This paki fauji's analysis-cum pep rally-cum psywar article offers some understanding of what is going on. Ignore the arrogance and hatred in the article.
AVM shahazad chowdary's analysis of modi policy

There are four aspects to the Modi Sarkar’s plan to relegate Kashmir from a global frame to an entirely domestic agenda. The first opportunity in this direction came by way of the Simla Accord of 1972, when by design Kashmir was relegated to a bilateral issue from the global basket; this despite the UN resolutions that were still very much alive. The second aspect of the plan deals with the annulment of Article 370 of the Indian constitution which bestows a special status to Kashmir through a legal statute. The BJP’s special effort to succeed in the 2014 state elections in Kashmir under the now-well-known emblem of Mission 44 was a move towards that objective. In time, with a larger share of seats in a coalition, the BJP would hope to recommend annulment of the special status and integration of the state into the Indian Union with a two-thirds majority. Delhi would only happily comply.

Part three aims to insistently desist Pakistan from associating with the Kashmiri leadership. Unilateral red-lines in denying a dialogue with the Hurriyet is one such absurdity meant to invoke disassociation between both sides. The fourth part concurrently in play is the attempt at demographic changes by settling retired army men and officers in Kashmir in violation of the existing statutes prohibiting naturalization of non-indigenous settlers. Similarly, resettling long-gone Kashmiri Pundits back in secure settlements is meant to replicate the Israeli model of Zionising the West Bank and Gaza. Meanwhile, the 700,000 strong Indian military continues to repress and torture the Kashmiris hoping to squeeze the notion of Azadi out from their DNA.

Somewhere along the way the Indians misperceived that the Pakistanis could give in on Kashmir and on the modalities of the engagement on the issue. They also incorrectly surmised Pakistan may be more amenable to the diplomatic scheming that India was putting in place because of being too pressed on a number of internal fronts. That the world was disposed towards supporting the Indian position vis-a-vis Pakistan because of recent history of events and how Pakistan may not have been seen in the best light. That Pakistan’s civil society and political leadership had come to the point of accepting the futility of a hostile relationship with India and it was only the military that remained the bastion of anti-Indian sentiment and could be isolated through a persistent media campaign.

If indeed this was the inevitability on Kashmir that had come to occupy the Pakistani elite’s mind, the Indian thought perceived, it was the moment to press home the unmitigated alteration of the character of the Kashmiri issue – relegating it from a global spotlight into a domestic agenda. As it plays out, India is in the process of reframing the paradigm on Kashmir – making it more domestic, making both Pakistan and Kashmiris irrelevant to the process, and in extricating the issue from the bilateral basket and using its internal mechanisms of force, coercion, and legal contortion to kill the issue as per India’s own design. The rest, to their mind, will only be a cakewalk.

The difficulty, however, is that there are just too many assumptions in the Indian plan. After having given away around 100,000 dead to their cause the Kashmiris are the last ones to give up on what they see is their fundamental right enjoined upon them by the combined global wisdom as the citizen of this world. India also assumes too much about Pakistan’s amenability to look the other way. Pakistan may have given South Asia a window of opportunity for sanity to take course but clearly it has gotten lost and fallen prey to unbridled ambition of an overly clever Modi Sarkar.

It is time to shed the pretensions and deal with the matter as is only appropriate. Political, diplomatic and moral support to the Kashmiris may go on; but Pakistan’s rather lackadaisical approach to its relations with India needs to be replaced with a hard look at what befalls Pakistan as a clever manipulation of the environment by India. We need a long-term plan through a deliberate, dedicated approach with strong hands at the helm to deal with India. Making nice will not do.

My translation:

- he quietly dismisses the pandits. (This is his style and his paki fauj approach to keeping the initiative and doing "pacification " a la bangladesh 1971. He advised India on Ornob show to "get over" 26/11)

- India has a long term strategy to end the trouble in Kashmir. Modi policy is basically on those lines only.

- but Modi is nothing but a chaiwala who thinks too much of himself. (Modi haters will go for that very happily)

- he is counting on kashmiris never giving up and pakistan never giving up and fighting with all it has.

- but he paints Indian strategy of marginalizing huriyat as "absurd." Meaning which of the following?

- it will provably not work

- it is provably inconsistent with the rest of the policy goals

- just by saying "absurd" he wants to arrogantly browbeat Indian opinion

The only change in India 's policy under Modi is that India has seized the initiative. Pakis are fighting to make India give up the initiative and shouting at their side to grab the initiative back.

There is no known "solution " to pakistan at present. Certainly not one that will provide instant gratification to jingos. So all criticism that Modi spoiled the solution is misguided or malicious.



The only issue is, are we holding the initiative to keep trying?

[KLNMurthy]

Im trying to figure out why Suhasini Haider writes like she does. There seems to be a fundamental disconnect here.
Modi + Doval want to engage with Pak and halt terror as a first step.
The track 2 cracks want to engage Pak irrespective of terror and want India to do this and that. The question to ask here is what tangible benfits has any overtures from India yielded. There is nothign to show here. And Pak policy of terror continues. Yet they pursue this line? As some soul said, expecting different results from the same experiment is lunacy . What is worrisome is Indian deaths do not matter for these lot.
So what makes them continue this line? is their idealogical moorings so strong they cannat even fathom coming out of it?

Change is hard. It is also costly.