Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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A_Gupta
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

vina wrote: Economists are pseudo scientists who hide behind the math to justify something that is based on make believe and ideology.
http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/09/08/m ... ics-rules/
N. Emrah Aydınonat: Using and Abusing Models in Economics: A Review of Rodrik’s Economics Rules: “Rodrik… argues that both unrealistic assumptions and mathematics are useful in economic modelling…

…makes the case for economics as a social science… does not have fundamental laws, and economists should not behave as if they have discovered the fundamental laws…. Models clarify hypotheses, enable accumulation of knowledge, imply an empirical method, and help economists generate knowledge based on shared professional standards…. Rodrik… explain[s] the general principles of model selection… verify[ing] (i) critical assumptions… (ii) mechanisms… (iii) direct implications… and (iv) incidental implications…. General economic theories are frameworks for organizing our thoughts, ‘rather than stand-alone explanatory frameworks’… specific to particular cases… a modest science….

Chapter 5: When Economists Go Wrong…. Mistaking a model (more appropriately, economists’ preferred models at the time) for the model is the most important reason why economists go astray. In the case of the financial crisis, the preferred models were models that support the efficient market hypothesis. In the case of Washington Consensus, the preferred models were the models that assume that the main drivers of growth were saving and access to investable funds. So how did economists get it so wrong in both of these cases? Not because they did not have appropriate models (they did), rather they became overconfident concerning some models, and ignored others. They have confused a model, with the model….

Rodrik argues that economics is not the problem, economists are… idealization, abstraction, utilization of unrealistic assumptions, methodological individualism are not problems as long as one appreciates the diversity of economic models and accepts the fact that each economic model is an attempt to understand some real world relationships in isolation. Market favoritism is not a problem of economics… [but] rather a problem created by some overconfident economists…. Economics is more pluralist than it appears…
Full story here: http://www.neaydinonat.com/blog/?p=1046
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by NRao »

Believe me, there is nothing common between the two. A doctor makes decisions based on facts,experience and science that is based on empiricism
The first AI systems made this assumption - that Doctors had a well understood knowledge base. Did not go too far.
Economists are pseudo scientists who hide behind the math to justify something that is based on make believe and ideology
It is the other way around. It is the predictive math that builds their ideology. And, it should. Ever tried predicting what a city would look like 25 years from now? Give it a shot.

Try to convince a politician to fund a project you are proposing 5 years down the road.

These things happen on a daily basis.
Rodrik argues that economics is not the problem, economists are
Very true. BUT it is true of any profession. Whenever an ego enters, things will have a great chance to go south.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

Need for India's policy makers to be "firing on all cylinders":
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/09/08 ... cylinders/
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by gakakkad »

good points A Gupta...that is the point I intended to make...

though more than ego , I feel it is incorrect understanding of the subject...Biological sciences , economics are like weather prediction...and have inherent complexities ...and to add on top of it , it they are applied without proper understanding , it can be a mess.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Please, stick to the topic of this thread.

Regarding the fiscal cost of OROP:
OROP payout unlikely to scuttle fiscal deficit target
The government estimates the one-off hit due to arrears is likely to be Rs 10,000-12,000 crore (0.1 per cent of GDP) in FY16, if implemented this year, while the recurring annual additional fiscal cost will be Rs 8,000-10,000 crore (0.1 per cent of GDP), and is expected to increase in future.

“The increased pension liabilities, the upcoming Seventh Pay Commission hike and higher recapitalisation requirements of public sector banks suggest that continued fiscal consolidation beyond FY16 will require structurally addressing both the expenditure and revenue side of the fiscal balance,” the report added.
The new Realty Bill targets investment and job creation in the affordable housing development area:
Affordable housing: Sector may get infra tag if Realty Bill gets passed
The institutional mechanism for updating the ‘Harmonised list of infrastructure sub-sectors’ has held that special treatment could be given to affordable housing as a “carve out in housing sector” but regulation of the sector is a pre-requisite. This would require the government to pass the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2013, that could not be tabled in the recent monsoon session.

Currently, the list includes 32 sub-sectors such as urban public transport, water supply pipelines, electricity distribution, capital stock in education and healthcare and even hotels with a project cost above Rs 200 crore.

The infrastructure tag would mean lower borrowing rates and tax concessions for the sector. “Currently developers have to take loans from the market at a high rate of interest in the range of 18 to 24 per cent. With an infrastructure status, borrowing rates would come down to 12 per cent. Also tax holidays that are granted to several infrastructure companies constructing highway projects etc would extend to those creating affordable housing also,” said an official. A 2012 notification of the Central Board of Direct Taxes has notified affordable housing projects, as specified business under section 35AD of Income Tax Act, 1961.

However, only expenditure of capital nature, and not on land and financial instruments, is eligible for deduction. This, according to ministry officials, is insufficient, especially in view of the fact under ‘Housing for All’ by 2022, two crore homes are to be constructed with help from private participation.
IRFC to facilitate Indian Railways Rs 1,50,000 cr LIC loan
The Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), the borrower for the national transporter, will play the intermediary for raising a large part of the proposed Rs 1,50,000-crore loan from state-run Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) as well; the instrument will be a 30-year paper with competitive rates for the railways, IRFC’s managing director Rajiv Datt said. The loan from LIC will be raised over five years and will be used for capacity expansion of the railways, he said, adding that funds would be deployed in long-term projects with relatively higher rates of return.

While the Indian Railways (IR) can’t borrow directly and use the services of IRFC, some of the rail PSUs like IRCON and RITES will be raising funds from the LIC for their own projects. Between the IRFC and other rail PSUs, around Rs 17,000 crore will be raised from LIC this year, sources said.

IRFC has raised over Rs 1.3 lakh crore from the market for the railways over the last 26 years; it owns the rolling stock (engines, coaches and wagons) procured by the transporter and receive rentals from the transporter under a finance lease arrangement.
Govt unlikely to achieve bankruptcy code target this winter session
The government is unlikely to achieve its “internal” target of introducing a bankruptcy code in Parliament in the winter session slated for November, as the Viswanathan committee preparing the final report is still in the process of tying up many loose ends in the proposed legislation.

Knowing this, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) recently wrote to the Prime Minister’s Office and the cabinet secretariat to expedite the process, official sources told FE. The DIPP is the agency coordinating the government’s ‘ease-of-doing-business-in-India’-initiatives, a key element of which is a bankruptcy legislation that meets global standards. The proposed law is meant to enable easier closure of unviable businesses and ensure a quick turn-around without wasting the assets created.

The code is aimed at addressing the failure of existing corporate rescue regimes including Sick Industrial Companies Act and Bureau for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction, but sources said the issues still under discussion include whether it will be a comprehensive code replacing all other existing relevant legislations or if it will co-exist with the Sarfaesi Act.

Another main outstanding issue is the treatment of provisions regarding cross-border insolvencies in the country.

The panel is debating the merits and demerits of putting in the code the protocols developed by the G20 (group of 20 major economies), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the United Nation’s UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency. Cross-border insolvency cases in this context include (i) when an Indian court wants the help of a foreign court/ representative, (ii) an overseas creditor seeking to initiate insolvency proceedings before an Indian court or (iii) in instances of simultaneous insolvency proceedings against the same debtor in different jurisdictions. Getting the law with cross-border insolvency provisions passed in Parliament could be a challenge with opposition parties raking up the sensitivities in giving equal treatment to foreign and domestic claims, sources said.

Also being debated is whether the National Company Law Tribunal (with jurisdiction over all Company Law-related issues) itself can be used for conducting insolvency proceedings or if separate bankruptcy courts need to be set up.

Besides, with a section of lawyers objecting to the proposal to include as insolvency practitioners, professionals including chartered accountants, management consultants, company secretaries and bankers, the issue might need discussions with the Bar Council of India and bar associations.

Another contentious issue is ensuring a level-playing field in the treatment of sick state-owned enterprises and private sector companies. There is a view that PSUs get a lenient treatment from lenders as against private firms as the former can bank easily on the government for bailouts and also have a separate (and allegedly ineffective) regime under the Board for Reconstruction of Public Sector Enterprises (BRPSE). The government wants to dissolve BRPSE and set up a new entity, but there are suggestions that there should be a common regime for public and private enterprises.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Suraj wrote:Regarding the fiscal cost of OROP:
OROP payout unlikely to scuttle fiscal deficit target
The government estimates the one-off hit due to arrears is likely to be Rs 10,000-12,000 crore (0.1 per cent of GDP) in FY16, if implemented this year, while the recurring annual additional fiscal cost will be Rs 8,000-10,000 crore (0.1 per cent of GDP), and is expected to increase in future.

“The increased pension liabilities, the upcoming Seventh Pay Commission hike and higher recapitalisation requirements of public sector banks suggest that continued fiscal consolidation beyond FY16 will require structurally addressing both the expenditure and revenue side of the fiscal balance,” the report added.
I would point out that it is ¼ of the spending on MNREGA with the benefits going to maybe 1/100th or less of the population benefiting from MNREGA.
And for a population who already gets a relatively good pension payout considering the rest of India get pension payout = Zero, nada, zilch.
If MREGA triggered inflation this will trigger at least ¼ of that level of inflation. So not a small amount.
The Entire GOI spending on all those metro’s we are building is less than this amount.
While it is 0.1% of GDP it is closer to 1% of GOI expenditure. And a revenue expenditure at that.
Remember that long discussion on declining CAPEX, well this is a classic example.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

OROP is an entitlement program that was delayed ~40 years. There's really no lipstick being applied to it as anything else, especially as a economic stimulus. Please take further discussion on OROP to the political or military forums.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Theo_Fidel »

I'm responding to you post suraj saar. If you hadn't posted there I would not have responded.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

That's fine. Let's end the discussion with this :)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

This is an interesting meeting considering companies are gun shy to invest aggressively after how their last splurge in 2010-11 backfired spectacularly as stagflationary conditions damaged growth then. This time, the PM's aggressive efforts to engender confidence may make the difference, particularly coming at a weak global point, where the threat of a big spike in crude/commodity prices is still small:
India Inc agrees to PM Modi’s call to invest
Captains of corporate India on Tuesday pledged to step up investments as they responded to a fervent call by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take risks and work with his government to translate the global turmoil’s fortuitous positives for the Indian economy like low prices of oil and other commodities into a huge opportunity.

In a three-hour meeting at Modi’s 7, Race Course Road residence attended by them besides bankers, policymakers and economists, industry leaders concurred with the government that China’s slowing growth and the volatile global capital and currency markets would have a relatively less adverse effect on India compared with many other major economies, but stressed that high cost of capital remained a dampener. They also called for more steps by the Centre and states to improve the ease of doing business.

While subdued commodity prices could reduce the pressure on India’s budget and current account deficits, India could also reasonably hope for more foreign investment as money flows out of China, Modi is learnt to have told the corporate top brass. This view was echoed by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, who cited recent examples to suggest that global investors could look at India as an alternative investment destination as China shifts to a regime of less manufactured exports and more domestic consumption. Sunil Mittal of Bharti Airtel, however, said until and unless domestic investments picks up, global investors could remain chary.

Modi’s emphasis on enhanced private investments comes close on the heels of the first-quarter GDP data that revealed the pick-up in fixed investment growth to 4.9% from 4.1% in the previous quarter was largely helped by the government.

While Modi exhorted large corporates to make job-creating investments, he also promised them more steps to catalyse infrastructure investments and attract overseas capital. While the need to fast-track productivity-enhancing reforms like the goods and services tax figured in most of the 27 speeches by different stakeholders at the conference, there were specific demands from industry for further policy support to stressed sectors like steel, power discoms and textiles. Speaking to reporters later, finance minister Arun Jaitley said the Prime Minister laid emphasis on low-cost manufacturing and felt the strength of the economy lay in its huge human resource, the size of the domestic market and its rather limited export dependence. Jailey said a policy focus on the agricultural sector would help increase purchasing power in the rural segment and hinted at using MNREGA funds as a possible tool for skill development.

Suggestions from industry, sources said, included creating a mechanism similar to the Troubled Asset Relief Programme of the US government, where the government buys equity and troubled assets from financial institutions to strengthen the financial sector. There was also proposal to set up a Stressed Assets Bank to bail out sectors with projects stalled for various issues beyond their ability to address.
Labour min proposal to recruit contract workers only via staffing agencies
Contract workers will get recruited only through staffing agencies, enjoy working conditions similar to the regular workers and benefit from periodic wage revisions if a set of amendments proposed by the labour ministry to the Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act, 1970 are approved by Parliament.

Stating that the proposals were still “at a discussion stage,”a labour ministry official told FE that the ministry would hold tripartite meetings involving trade unions and employers’ organisations after reaching a consensus among different government departments on the proposals.

Indian Staffing Federation (ISF), the apex body of the flex-staffing agencies in the country has 40 members catering mostly to the organised sector. There are hundreds of such staffing companies in the unorganised sector but a large sections of the contract workers are still not recruited through them. More than 17 lakh contract workers are currently employed in the organised sector while almost all of the 40 crore unorganised sector workers are contract workers.

A senior labour ministry official said that the idea is to encourage the engagement of contract workers primarily through placement agencies. The ministry’s objective is to protect the interests of contract workers by ensuring that they are not exploited in the hands of the employers. These workers would also be brought under the social security net.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by RamaY »

^ Suraj garu,

Note the TARP demand in return for equity. What could be optimal mechanism in Bharatiya context?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

I am having NPS account. The returns last year are 19.93% as per the report sent to me. This is a very good performance. Now in the current budget they have given an additional 50k tax exception for investments made in N.P.S. which will make it more attractive.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by srin »

It is interesting that when corporates say they want lower cost of capital, they only mean debt. Since it is the PSBs who do a lot of such lending, it means that Govt (and hence public) takes over the risk, while the corporates enjoy the success. So, no downside and lot of potential upside - who wouldn't want it ? But why should the Govt oblige ? They should raise capital from equity markets - yes, there will be dilution but that's part of life. If the public is taking on the risk anyway, why can't the public share the fruits of success ?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Singha »

I had never expected that Telengana and Andhra were so populous
Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chaanakya »

Yagnasri wrote:I am having NPS account. The returns last year are 19.93% as per the report sent to me. This is a very good performance. Now in the current budget they have given an additional 50k tax exception for investments made in N.P.S. which will make it more attractive.
Is it Tier-1 or Tier-2 account? Either way its extremely good performance.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

It is Tire 1 account. Unfortunately my deposit was less so less i have earned. Now started process of depositing amounts on regular basis.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by SrinivasK »

Wouldn't choosing the Equity option of NPS be similar to investing in an Equity Growth Direct plan of a good Mutual Fund?

19% is very good but there are good MFs that give the same returns. The returns could vary based on the market performance just as in a MF.

The only difference is, if we choose a Tier-1, we are enforcing a disciplined investment until age 60.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 884878.cms
NEW DELHI: India's economic growth recovery is likely to stay modest at 7.5 per cent, while average consumer price index (CPI) would be around 5 per cent in the current fiscal, a Citigroup report says.

According to the global financial services major, the country's ability to withstand sub-par monsoon has been improving steadily on better irrigation, rising yield and pro-active food management policies.

It said that though the rising yield per hectare is likely to support agri ..

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governm ... ax-measure
[NEW DELHI] India's government has given up plans to reconvene a parliament session to secure approval for a common goods and services tax because of lack of political support, the finance minister said on Wednesday, making it harder to meet an April 2016 deadline to implement the reform.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by arshyam »

This is big, but surprisingly slipped under the radar. A x-post from the Make in India thread:

Electronics major Flex scales up operations at Chennai plant - Hindu Business Line
The $26-billion Flex (earlier called Flextronics) has scaled up operations at its plant in Sriperumbudur after getting the domestic tariff area (DTA) licence a year ago.

In the last one year, it has added nearly 2,000 employees only for DTA area, Sekaran Letchumanan, Head, Flex Chennai Industrial Park, told newspersons.

Flex, an electronics manufacturer, employs around 10,000 people in India. This includes 4,000 at its Sriperumbudur factory, 5,000 at its Global Business Service units in Chennai and Pune and around 1,000 in the logistics division.

It plans to add 3,000-4,000 with most of them for the DTA area in the next 12-18 months, he said.

Flex’s Sriperumbudur plant was started in 2001 as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The DTA status granted to the Flex Chennai Industrial Park allow the company to product and deliver intelligent, innovative products for the domestic market as opposed to just exporting them.

“We have the right building blocks and capacity to help our global customers build, repair and ship their products anywhere in India,” he said. Post getting the licence, Flex partnered with Lenovo, which owns Motorola Mobility, to manufacture their smartphones at the plant, he said.
SEZ & DTA

After getting the DTA licence, it has split the plant into SEZ and DTA within the same campus with no overlap between the two in various product manufacturing. Of the total 645,000 sq ft facility, nearly 250,000 is DTA space. While employees can be interchanged between the two, the products manufactured are kept separate.

At present the capacity utilisation of DTA operations is around 40 per cent with plans to make it 100 per cent in the next 12-18 months, he said without giving any investment numbers.

Product experience so far at the plant: 250 million phone chargers and power adaptors; 1.5 million modems; 400,000 photo receptor units; over 50,000 base stations and more than 3 million mobile phones.


New products are planned to be manufactured for global and domestic customers in sectors such as automotive, energy and telecom. “Our dream is to bring wearable devices to the plant in the future,” said Valerie Kurniawan, Senior Director, Asia, Flex. “With the DTA, we want our suppliers also to come to Sriperumbdur. This will happen in the near future,” she said.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 886917.cms
Indirect tax collections rose 36.5 per cent in April-August to over Rs 2.63 lakh crore, suggesting that the underlying momentum in the economy is strong, the Finance Ministry said today.

.....
....
The indirect tax collection reflects hike in excise duty on diesel and petrol, withdrawal of exemptions for motor vehicles, increase in clean energy cess and the hike in service tax rate in June.

Subramanian said that stripped of all these measures, the April-August tax collection grew at 12.2 per cent, which "continues to suggest a healthy growth in the underlying tax base".

Asked if the government would surpass the indirect tax collection target set in the Budget, he said: "So far, it seems like. Because the asking rate is 18.8 per cent, and we are doing 36.5 per cent."

The government has budgeted to collect over Rs 6.47 lakh crore from indirect taxes in the current fiscal.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 884601.cms
"From gold monetisation to spectrum trading, 7 things Cabinet cleared today"


1. The Cabinet cleared a 6% hike in dearness allowance for central government employees...

2. The Cabinet cleared gold Monetisation scheme...

3. The Cabinet cleared sovereign gold bond scheme...

4. Game-changer Spectrum trading guidelines gets nod...

5. Policy to put up offshore wind farms cleared...

6. The Cabinet okayed FDI, of up to 100 per cent, under the automatic route, in the activity of White Label ATM (WLA) Operations...

7. Cabinet dropped plans to reconvene a session of Parliament to secure approval of a common goods and services tax (GST)...

Also: Boost for J&K and Exim bank...
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Cabinet okays new gold schemes
The Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) consists of a revamped Gold Deposit Scheme and Gold Metal Loan Scheme. “The objective of introducing the modifications is to make the existing schemes more effective and to broaden the ambit from merely mobilising gold held by households and institutions to putting this into productive use,” went an official statement.

Under GMS, the gold deposited by households to gold savings accounts will be put to use for auctioning, replenishment of the Reserve Bank’s (RBI's) gold reserves, coins and lending to jewellers.

The tenures of deposits can be for a short term of one to three years, a medium term of five to seven years or a longer term of 11-15 years. For the short term, the interest rates will be decided by banks. For the other tenures, RBI, in consultation with the government, will decide. The interest income to depositors will be tax-free, as in the Gold Deposit Scheme. If the gold is loaned to jewellers, the rates will be decided by banks in consultation with RBI.

Speaking after the cabinet meeting, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said around 1,000 tonnes of gold was imported annually and people hold much idle gold only for investment purposes. With GMS, people can deposit idle gold with authorised agencies, taking advantage of price escalation in gold and earn interest on the deposit, he said.

“The deposit tenure would be short, medium or long term and if the idle gold is deposited in the banking system, then at the time of redemption, people can get the actual value. Physical gold can be obtained if it is a short-term deposit. Besides, people will also get the interest,” Jaitley said.

He and later economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said the notification and date of implementation of the GMS would be announced very soon.
Tax exemptions for India Inc to be phased out, says FM
In line with the Budget announcement of reducing corporation tax by five percentage points to 25 per cent in four years, Jaitley said the government would release a list of tax exemptions to be withdrawn in a phased manner. The aim is to align taxation levels in India with global standards and with those in competing countries.
Image
No FPI investment in commodities till govt review: RBI to Sebi
While the government has issued notifications for merger of commodities markets regulator FMC with capital markets watchdog Sebi with effect from September 28, the revised norms for exchanges and various market participants were notified last month to pave way for the combined regulatory regime.

There were expectations that the merger would pave way for the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to participate in the commodities derivatives market, as they are already allowed by Sebi in the capital markets segment under its ambit.

Sources said Sebi had written to the Reserve Bank and the government in this regard, and RBI has replied that the status quo should be maintained till a policy review is undertaken by the government for allowing FPIs in the commodities derivative trading.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by kmkraoind »

Senior government leaders unhappy with India Inc over lack of support for reforms like land bill

Congi system not only has presence in political sphere, but it has deeper presence in India Inc too. Even if there is short time pain, let purge them (cronies) and build a new free and competitive India Inc and new set of business leaders.
Senior figures in the government, a person familiar with these deliberations said, are of the view that India Inc could have played a constructive role by engaging with opposition parties, especially those with whom industrialists have closely worked on many issues before.
...
The example Modi gave to his close advisers of India Inc engaging in the reforms process earlier came from his days as Gujarat chief minister. The PM observed that when as CM, he was opposing GST, senior industry figures would come to him to change his mind. But corporate India's willingness to intervene in similar fashion was noticeably lacking as the land Bill and then GST got caught in political fights, the PM feels.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Gold monetisation scheme: 2% interest likely on gold deposits
The government is gearing up to launch the gold monetisation scheme around Diwali with an interest rate of 1.5-2% on gold deposits, said a senior finance ministry official.

As regards the sovereign gold bond scheme, the government aims to raise Rs 15,000 crore and the timing of the launch will be decided in consultations with the Reserve Bank.

The interest rate on gold bonds, the official said, is expected to be 2-3%.

The Cabinet had yesterday approved the gold monetisation and the bond schemes, which were earlier announced in the Budget with an aim to curb demand for physical gold and fish out idle gold lying with temples, trusts and households.
It would be very interesting to see how this works out. After the budget-time skepticism, several press sources are coming around to the view that this will be a success, though they treat the bond and deposit scheme separately:
Gold bonds are a clear winner but high chances of deposit scheme becoming a flop show
The gold bond scheme finalised by the government on Wednesday is a clear winner since the idea of issuing gold bonds can absorb a major part of the gold investment demand in the country.

Presently, an estimated 300 tonnes of physical bars and coins are purchased every year for investment-purpose in India. Most of this comes through imports. Under the new scheme, investors can park money in papers, which will be backed by gold.

The gold bond scheme permits buying bonds worth 500 grams of gold per year. RBI will issue bonds on behalf of government. Someone who invests in gold bars and bullions purely for investment purpose wouldn’t mind buying those papers. They can also take loans against these papers and trade these papers.

But, the government will find it difficult to pull off the second one -- the gold monetization scheme -- unless the banks and the government decide to offer attractive returns. Under the moentisation scheme, the customer gets his gold ornaments melted and purity assessed from one of the recognised centres. This gold is later passed to banks against which a certificate is issued. On maturity, the customer can redeem the gold value with a small interest.

The government targets an estimated 20,000 tonnes of unused gold lying in Indian households and temples. It wants to use this stock productively in the domestic market and thus curb imports. India is the largest gold importer in the world.

Not many people would want to see her long-preserved, family-inherited, emotionally attached, piece of yellow metal lose its identity and ‘feel’ by melting it, for meagre returns. As per the guidelines, the interest rate on shorter-tenure gold deposits will be left to the banks, on the basis of prevailing international lease rates and other costs, while for the medium to long term, the rate of interest will be decided by the government in consultation with the RBI.
The success or failure of the scheme will be quantitatively dependent on how much of gold holding is viewed as an investment as opposed to an emotional possession. While there are strong subjective opinions each way, this scheme provides a good quantitative barometer, as opposed to just opinion.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Tamil Nadu global investors meet generates Rs.2.42 lakh crore ($38 billion) in investment commitments
The global investors meet, which ended here on Thursday, raked in investment commitments worth Rs 2,42,160 crore, double the target the state government had set for itself. The state has signed 98 agreements, details of which were not disclosed.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa said the investment figure exceeds the cumulative investments attracted through all pacts signed by the state government over two decades from 1991 to 2011.

She added the government has offered attractive packages to encourage investors to invest in southern districts. Of the total investments, Rs 1,04,286 crore is in manufacturing, of which 50 per cent will be in these districts.

The power sector attracted Rs 1,07,136- crore investments, while the information and technology sector got Rs 10,950 crore, the handloom sector Rs 1,955 crore, agriculture Rs 800 crore and the fisheries Rs 500 crore. The chief minister said solar power attracted Rs 35,356 crore worth investments.

Medium and small enterprises signed pacts worth Rs 16,533 crore.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

Suraj wrote: Gold bonds are a clear winner but high chances of deposit scheme becoming a flop show
The gold bond scheme finalised by the government on Wednesday is a clear winner since the idea of issuing gold bonds can absorb a major part of the gold investment demand in the country.

Presently, an estimated 300 tonnes of physical bars and coins are purchased every year for investment-purpose in India. Most of this comes through imports. Under the new scheme, investors can park money in papers, which will be backed by gold.

The gold bond scheme permits buying bonds worth 500 grams of gold per year. RBI will issue bonds on behalf of government. Someone who invests in gold bars and bullions purely for investment purpose wouldn’t mind buying those papers. They can also take loans against these papers and trade these papers.

But, the government will find it difficult to pull off the second one -- the gold monetization scheme -- unless the banks and the government decide to offer attractive returns. Under the moentisation scheme, the customer gets his gold ornaments melted and purity assessed from one of the recognised centres. This gold is later passed to banks against which a certificate is issued. On maturity, the customer can redeem the gold value with a small interest.

The government targets an estimated 20,000 tonnes of unused gold lying in Indian households and temples. It wants to use this stock productively in the domestic market and thus curb imports. India is the largest gold importer in the world.

Not many people would want to see her long-preserved, family-inherited, emotionally attached, piece of yellow metal lose its identity and ‘feel’ by melting it, for meagre returns. As per the guidelines, the interest rate on shorter-tenure gold deposits will be left to the banks, on the basis of prevailing international lease rates and other costs, while for the medium to long term, the rate of interest will be decided by the government in consultation with the RBI.
The success or failure of the scheme will be quantitatively dependent on how much of gold holding is viewed as an investment as opposed to an emotional possession. While there are strong subjective opinions each way, this scheme provides a good quantitative barometer, as opposed to just opinion.
The article is in conflict with itself. It starts of saying some 300 tonnes of gold bars and coins are purchased for investment purposes only. So at any given point of time at least 300 tonnes of gold is already sitting in vaults because of past purchases and gathering dust and waiting for the prices to go up. It is possible that it will be converted to jewellery on auspicious occasions. Even assuming a half-life for such an investment., that is 150 tonnes is converted every year to jewellery and never to be re-invested., we are talking about over five years 300+150+75+37.5+18.75 = @600 tonnes of gold sitting around vaults for investment purposes.

Now with the gold monetization scheme., all of the above can be converted to a paper certificate and earning interest - even if it is measly 2%. Note - there is no emotional value attached here - since it is already in gold bars and coins which will be anyway melted to make jewellery (and also the jewellery will make off with some 8% of gold converting from 24 karats to 22 karats)

I think if the GOI can get that 600 tonnes of gold into circulation, that is no mean achievement.

Added later: That is some Rs 142,39,28,56,380 (or Rs. 14k crore monetized) - not a small sum!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chaanakya »

Exactly, Gold bars kept for investment purpose will get monetised, at least some of it. Generally gold bars in large quantity are purchased from undeclared money or black money. Declaration of such qty of gold is fraught with risks. Better to forego than to face IT people.
Ornaments would be kept for sentimental value and people would be loath to melt it away for investment purpose. Gold ornaments with princely houses would be of more value because of various factors than the gold contained in them. So they won't do it at all. That is why Jet Li was being cautious when he told in press conference " whatever person is in a position to declare and deposit. It is not having any amnesty scheme for black money."
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

For long I belived that we can have a second currency. A fully backed gold standard one. Preferably a digital one which can be used by debit card like instrument. It will surly have lot of support as the balance in the account can be used as a currency and also will be offering a amount of protection from Inflation in long term basis. 2% interest on average balance in a year will be quite good. Most of the people may prefer that to rupee.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Altair »

In US the COMEX is totally bankrupt. For every 200 Oz of Gold traded, they have only 1 Oz of deliverable Gold at any point of time, sometimes even 300 for 1 Oz. This is unsustainable. I fear The Americans will get a leverage on Indian Gold somehow. I may be paranoid but I have my reasons. This Gold Monetisation/Bond scheme needs to be watched carefully.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by panduranghari »

Suraj wrote: The success or failure of the scheme will be quantitatively dependent on how much of gold holding is viewed as an investment as opposed to an emotional possession. While there are strong subjective opinions each way, this scheme provides a good quantitative barometer, as opposed to just opinion.
Can you clarify what aspect of gold holding is considered 'emotional possession'? Please do not use the usual paraded by the financial media - 'Gold does not give any yield'.

Image

1. Gold’s showing is the most variable, coming top of the table 7 times but placing bottom 11 years in last 41, worse than any other asset class.
2. Gold showed in the top 3 performing assets for a record 7 years running last decade (2005-2011). Only REITs come close (6 years running 1979-84).
3. 2013 marked not only gold's first drop in 12 years, but the first time it's lagged inflation since 2001 - something each of other 8 asset classes suffered at least once in the previous half-decade.
4. Gold lagged CPI for 8 years running in 1994-2001. Note however that in all of those 8 years cash did beat inflation. And retained capital won’t find inflation-hedging so urgent when cash itself is doing the job.
5. Gold tends to do well when stocks fail, and suffer when stocks surge as they did in 2013. Of the 10 years gold has placed in the top 3 performing asset classes, US stocks have come in the bottom 3 six times. Of 17 times US stocks came in top 3, gold has placed in bottom 3 thirteen times.

The data proves that 'emotional possession' argument does not hold. AND we are looking at a 40 year plus data.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

pandu saar, gold in a US context means nothing to this thread. The gold monetization schemes success or failure is tied to Indian attitudes. There are no generic attitudes from US that can be carried over to the Indian context here. India's personal gold consumption far exceeds that of the US, and the US has no corresponding social interest in gold, at least not since the Gold Rush days.

Meanwhile
July IIP at 4.2% versus 4.4% in June
After a weak GDP expansion for the first quarter of the current financial year, industrial growth stood at a reasonable level of 4.2% in July, a slight moderation compared to 4.4% in the previous month. However, it should be noted that the June figures were revised from 3.8%. As such, IIP in fact grew, if provisional estimates are taken into account.

A low growth of index of industrial production (IIP) at 0.9% in July in 2014 helped in making industrial growth in July this year look higher.

In the first four months of the current financial year, growth stood at 3.5%, a bit slower than 3.6% a year ago.

However, the growth was not broad based as it was primarily manufacturing, which accounts for 75% of IIP, that rose at reasonable rates. Manufacturing grew 4.7% against contraction of 0.3% a year ago. However, mining output could rise by only 1.3% against 0.1% and electricity 3.5% against 11.7%.

Consumer durables, which suffered contraction in earlier months (barring June), rose by 11.4%. But, fast moving consumer goods fell 4.6%.

Volatile capital goods was up 10.6% against contraction by 3% a year ago.
The qualitative breakdown of IIP numbers is improving. Manufacturing is inching towards 5%, instead of treading water and depending on high electricity output data to shore up IIP figures.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by panduranghari »

Arey saar, Gold is what Indians get. Just like cricket. Everyone has an opinion about it. There is something primeval about Indians and their affinity for Gold. And that is why gold monetisation scheme is a failure even before launch.

1. Cost of carry for gold in individual possession is very very low.
2. The cost of assaying gold, then refining it and then storing it is high.
3. The interest rate delivered for the scheme has to cover the costs just mentioned.
4. The interest rate ergo is going to be abysmal.

Just a few points, though I can go into more detail.

I am eternally thankful to those poor rural Indian housewives who have held on to our traditions.

Gold will be revalued just once, and that singular event will change Indian housewives. In a good way.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

pandu saar, I'm not here to debate whether or not the scheme will fail. My earlier post just stated that the scheme itself is at a juncture to prove its ability to succeed or fail, so no words are necessary anymore. We spend a lot of time debating theory. This is a good time to see something work (or not) in practice...
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by member_29172 »

I am not too sure about bringing in the gold held by individuals into the hands of the government. In the times of crisis, atleast this gold can be converted into money or if worse comes to worse bartered for useful commodity (although I am doubtful that things would ever get this bad). Govt, unlike individuals might end up losing all the gold like it did in the 1991 economic crisis.

People should be encouraged to buy and store gold, at least 10-50 grams.

Panduji, I don't think gold will lose it's charm anytime soon. Western countries put all their resources in to maximize profits and enjoy temporary prosperity even if it creates massive debt problems and future uncertainity (American lifestyle greatly improved in the 50s and 60s, after the post war boom, resulting a huge middle class owning big houses and cars and tvs etc., a lot of it was bought on credit and not on actual cash). Living on credit has become an age old american tradition, I don't think we should be that stupid.

Btw, wasn't Moothoot finance and a few other firms doing similar things? giving cash loans for gold? I thought they were quite popular among people?
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

An update on PM Jan Dhan Yojana bank account creation program:
Source
Total Accounts: 181.8 million
RuPay cards: 159.1 million
Zero balance accounts: 44.9%

The zero balance account percentage continues to fall at a rapid rate:
Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Falijee »

India to Retrofit up to 35 Million Street Lights with LED Technology
An upcoming project to retrofit street lights with LED technology will reportedly save India $850 million in energy costs and conserve up to 10.5 billion kWh of electricity each year.

Although no official figure is available, sources estimate that India is home to between 20 and 35 million street lights. The upgrade could easily qualify as the world's largest, beating out a recent retrofit of 210,000 street lights in Los Angeles.
In recent years, India has been a vanguard of renewable energy technology: the country is now home to the world's first completely solar-powered airport. By 2017, India will also be home to the world's largest solar power plant.

A recent study from Concordia University pegged India as the world's largest carbon creditor, holding 30% of the world's total carbon credits.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ Above mentioned, Concordia University, Montreal, Canada study:
http://www.concordia.ca/cunews/main/rel ... debts.html

Montreal, September 8, 2015 — All countries have contributed to recent climate change, but some much more so than others. Those that have contributed more than their fair share have accumulated a climate debt, owed to countries that have contributed less to historical warming.

This is the implication of a new study published in Nature Climate Change, in which Concordia University researcher Damon Matthews shows how national carbon and climate debts could be used to decide who should pay for the global costs of climate mitigation and damages.

The countries that have accumulated the largest carbon debts on account of higher than average per-capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia.

The U.S. alone carries 40 per cent of the cumulative world debt, while Canada carries about four per cent. On the other side, the carbon creditors — those whose share of CO2 emissions has been smaller than their share of world population — are India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil and China, with India holding 30 per cent of the total world credit.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Retail inflation eases to 3.66% in August
India’s retail inflation eased marginally in August even as food prices escalated on supply concerns, but nevertheless strengthened case for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in the upcoming policy meet on September 29.

The Consumer Price Index-based inflation, the primary gauge of central bank, eased to 3.66% in August versus 3.69% in the previous month, data released by the central statistics office showed on Monday. It was more favourable than RBI’s comfort zone of 6% by January 2016.

The retail food inflation rose to 2.2% in August versus 2.15% in July mainly on account of supply shortage of onion and pulses.

The government revised July CPI Inflation downwards to 3.69% from 3.78% estimated earlier.

Food & beverage inflation in August was up at 2.92% as compared to 2.89% in July. Deflation in vegetables eased slightly to 6.36% from 7.93% in July.

The data coupled with the subdued GDP growth of 7% in the first quarter has raised hopes for another round of interest rate easing by the central bank.

RBI cut repo rate for the third time this year in June, leaving repo rate at 7.25%.
Gujarat tops ease of doing business ranking among states
Gujarat was ranked on the top today, among states, on the ease of doing business index prepared by the World Bank, while Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand were placed at the second and third positions, respectively.

Others in the list of top ten states in India providing a better climate for businesses include Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odhisa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

The ranking of the states, prepared by the World Bank at the behest of the government, was based on eight specified parameters which include setting up of business, allotment of land, labour reforms and procedure for environmental clearance.

Among the major states, West Bengal occupied 11th slot, Tamil Nadu (12th), Haryana (14th), Delhi (15th), Punjab (16th), Himachal Pradesh (17th), Kerala (18th), Goa (19th), Bihar (21st) and Assam (22nd).
Bigger case for RBI rate cut: CPI will undershoot January target by big margin
With August CPI coming in at 3.7%, on top of a sharp decline in July CPI – it fell from 5.4% in June to 3.7% in July – the case for a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate cut has become even stronger. According to JPMorgan analysis, inflation momentum – seasonally adjusted quarterly annualized momentum – is down from 6.6% in June to 4.9% in July and a mere 2.7% in August. As a result, the RBI’s January target of a 6% CPI is almost certain to undershoot by 50-75bps – to the extent RBI is data driven, it is almost certain there will be a rate cut later this month, whether by 25bps or 50bps remains to be seen. Given the certainty of a drought, the question is whether fruits and vegetables inflation will soar and, if so, to what extent low global prices will dampen it. While every drought does not necessarily translate to higher fruits/vegetable inflation – it depends on how severe the drought is and in which regions – the government has the option of lowering wheat/rice prices through open-market sales (cereals have a 9.7% weight in CPI) and oil/fat prices can be lowered through imports.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Viv S »

Suraj wrote:Gujarat was ranked on the top today, among states, on the ease of doing business index prepared by the World Bank, while Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand were placed at the second and third positions, respectively.

Others in the list of top ten states in India providing a better climate for businesses include Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odhisa, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

The ranking of the states, prepared by the World Bank at the behest of the government, was based on eight specified parameters which include setting up of business, allotment of land, labour reforms and procedure for environmental clearance.

Among the major states, West Bengal occupied 11th slot, Tamil Nadu (12th), Haryana (14th), Delhi (15th), Punjab (16th), Himachal Pradesh (17th), Kerala (18th), Goa (19th), Bihar (21st) and Assam (22nd).
Kind of goes against conventional wisdom, doesn't it? What am I missing here?
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