Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Sep 2015 10:23

^Once before, they made a massive cut (during Mao's time?) but substantially increased the strength of the internal forces Wu Jing (armed police) to tackle unrest. Already, China has been facing unrest all over the country even when the economy was doing well and a massive reduction in the armed forces would lead to even more disenchantment with the economy doing badly. So, my guess is that they would be re-distributed elsewhere provincially.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 06 Sep 2015 10:27

They're doing it b/c it makes sense. Less manpower, more tech centric. China would be stupid to open a front against us at this stage. They'll throw everything they got in coordination with the Russians against SoKo, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

SoKo IMO is ripest.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Sep 2015 20:55

War Waged Against Russia Now Being Waged Against China - Russian ex-Spy

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2015 05:58

The yuan shouldn’t be in the SDR basket - Sitaram Gurumurthy, BusinessLine

The recent devaluation of the Chinese currency needs to be studied in the context of the country’s efforts to include its currency in the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket. But whether China is really keen on allowing its currency to float, abandoning its two-decade-old policy of controlling its exchange rate, is a moot point.

Created in 1969 in order to supplement its member countries’ official reserves, the SDR basket currently comprises the US dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen.

The IMF reviews the SDR basket valuation every five years. The last review was in 2000 when the euro replaced the French franc and the German’s deutschemark. Currently the weights assigned to the currencies in the SDR basket are: US dollar (41.9 per cent), euro (37.4 per cent), British pound (11.3 per cent) and Japanese yen (9.4 per cent)

Freely usable currency

In April this year, IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, noted that it was a question of when, not if, China’s renminbi (RMB, also known as yuan) will be included in the SDR basket. According to Lagarde, China’s economic reform plans should help Beijing meet IMF criteria to join its SDR currency basket. According to reports, the IMF has decided to defer inclusion of the yuan to November since the currency showed mixed performance while meeting financial norms. It appears that while the Chinese currency could meet the requirements as a significant currency in terms of international trade, the yuan had failed to meet the requirements as a freely usable currency.

The IMF concept of a freely usable currency refers to the actual use and trading of currencies; it is distinct from whether a currency is freely floating or fully convertible. Noting that the currency was only thinly traded in North America and was not commonly used in international debt securities, the IMF paper said, “Across a range of indicators, the renminbi is now exhibiting a significant degree of international use and trading. At the same time the four freely usable currencies generally rank ahead of it.”

Hayden Briscoe of the asset management firm, Alliance-Bernstein, says the reason why the yuan may not be included in the SDR basket this November could be due to President Xi’s visit to the US in September when talks with President Obama will cover bilateral trade agreements — which is of great significance to China as it has been excluded from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement, now under negotiation between the US and several Pacific Rim countries. Given the influence that the US and its allies wield within the IMF, the inclusion of the yuan may have to wait at least till the US-China talks reach an agreement that both sides can support.

The rate record

Neither Japan nor China has a clean record in exchange rate management. Both the countries have manipulated their respective currencies to boost their exports. One may recall that in 1985, the Japanese yen at 220 to the dollar had almost killed the auto industry in the US, flooding the US market with Japanese cars. President Ronald Reagan intervened by imposing import quotas on Japanese cars. The yen rose to 120 to a dollar.

While the protagonists of free trade chose to denounce Reagan as a heretic, the fact remains that the US auto industry was saved by him.

China’s record is almost similar. With the end of recession and consequent recovery since March 2009, all the emerging economies in Asia witnessed surging capital flows causing significant appreciation of their currencies, to the point of destroying their export competitiveness. President Obama, during his maiden visit to Beijing in November 2009, called upon the Chinese government to allow the country’s currency to appreciate further. But the then Chinese president, Hu Jintao, chose to ignore the demand.

China’s currency was held at 6.83 to a dollar between mid-2008 and mid-2010. Prior to this, US policy documents observe that the dollar-yuan exchange rate went from 8.11 to 6.83 between July 2005 and July 2008. From June 2010 to July 2013, the yuan appreciated from 6.83 to 6.17 against the dollar, an insignificant rise.

The US, the European Union and the IMF had individually and collectively taken all possible measures during 2009 to persuade China to move away from its fixed exchange rate regime to a market-oriented one, but China was in no mood to oblige. The current devaluation of the yuan reflects China‘s desperation to get included into the SDR basket.

Currencies of countries that have a record of manipulating them should not find a place in the SDR basket. Since the yen already figures in the SDR basket, if the yuan is included, the combined weightage of the yen and the yuan should not exceed the existing weightage of 9.4 per cent currently assigned to the yen. This can be justified in terms of trading volumes.

The writer was with the International Monetary Fund

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 07 Sep 2015 08:11

I returned from Kailash Manasarovar Yatra over the weekend. Just a brief of our experience here since we often hear about the infra and terrain on the Chinese side versus our side.

Our tour was through the Nepal private operators who operate via two routes (a) From Kathmandu through road through the Karadi border to join the Lhasa - Darchen highway and b) Kathmandu- Nepalgunj, Simikhot by small aircraft. Simikhot -Hilsa border by Chopper (20 mins ride). Cross over a small bridge to the Tibetian side. We took the #b as #a was closed this year and secondly it takes longer.

The difference in the terrain and the infrastructure between Nepal side and the Tibet is seen to be believed. There is no road from Simikhot to Hilsa border on the Nepal side. We covered it in 20 mins by a private chopper which operates a shuttle services. The alternative is a 3 day trek to the border. Once you cross the bridge over River Karnali into Tibet, the terrain was flat with very mild gradients and excellent roads and infrastructure. Once our group crossed the bridge, we were made to wait for 2 hours in no man's land before a PLA/Border police officer in Military camo came down with a leather suitcase and a bus. He checked each one of our passports, our photographs, against a group permit list whose copy he had and made us sit in the bus one by one. The guy did not speak anything, but was courteous. We had a differently abled person in our group and he carried her bag himself into the bus and loaded it. Once every one in our group was done, the bus proceeded to a check-post where the bunch of PLA/frontier police guys checked our bags, mobile phones for photos of border, propaganda material. Post the checks, we were taken to Taklakot, a trading town 40 odd kms from the border. The PLA officer accompanied us in the bus till Taklakhot where the immigration, customs and healthcare officials inspected our passports, group permit, our bags. The checks were arranged at a Hotel where the Indian pilgrim are hosted. The town's infrastructure resembled a small US village/small town. The hotel had smart card keys, US style motels but no tissue paper, water bottle etc. in the washrooms. Food was cooked by the tour operators but they had to adjust the time according to the visiting PLA staff. e.g. we were served breakfast at 8:00 AM China time (5:30 AM IST) because PLA officials were visiting at (9:00 AM China time).

The roads were well maintained 2 laned road with signage, markings, drainage facilities and maintained by people in military camo (frontier police). The roads were being cleaned of stones, debri periodically. Forestation drive seems to have been started near the highways. Huge investments in solar. The borders are watched by CCTV cameras everywhere. The buses we got were TFTA and nothing rickety (kinglong and Golden dragon). Mandarin signboards were there everywhere with Tibetan in small print. Hanification of Tibet is almost complete. Could see no big monastaries or religious symbology except for the small hand made temple of flags and stones. The tibetans you see are so different from what I have seen in Dharmasala or other settlements in their attitude, culture etc. We had to enter and leave Tibet in the same group. Our passports were taken by the tour operator to the police stations everyday for verification. The permit is given only in groups and all the group members have to be present together whenever the checks happen. Even if one person is missing, then the entire group is made to wait.

One of the pilgrims in our group passed away at Dolma pass opposite to Gowri Kund. The evacuation was very swift, and his body was transferred to Kathmandu along with us. The total cost of the bringing the body back to Kathmandu costed the family 20 Lakhs Rupees. The process was handled smoothly by the tour operator.

During the parikrama route as well as the Manasaravar lake side stay, accommodation was dormitory style with common dry toilets. The covered toilets were so stinky that we had to use the open grounds. Not sure whether this infra is kept deliberately this way to keep off Indian tourist. Group permit issuance is completely arbitrary. Usually the Nepali tour operators brings in a big team of their own sherpas for cooking, porterage for the entire trip into Tibet. This year, they refused permission for the Nepalis. Even for the Indian groups, permit was given only for 10% of the total applicants. The land route via Karadi pass was closed and the other route from Lhasa was also closed.

The Nepal police manning the borders had 303 rifles and TFTA suits/weapons on the Chinese side. On the Nepal side of the border, lot of Chinese items, food, shoes, clothing etc. gets transferred by the porters from the Chinese side to the epali side. Our guide in the border was mentioning that China has offered to improve infra on the Nepali side but the Indian Govt. is preventing the Nepal Govt. from taking the offer.

Indian Govt. can play a big role in improving infra at Hilsa, Simikhot as it is the gateway used by 1000s of Indian pilgrims every year outside of the Govt. Yatra. This is help the Indian pilgrim as well as the Nepali locals greatly.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Sep 2015 09:33

SSridhar wrote:The IMF reviews the SDR basket valuation every five years. The last review was in 2000 when the euro replaced the French franc and the German’s deutschemark. Currently the weights assigned to the currencies in the SDR basket are: US dollar (41.9 per cent), euro (37.4 per cent), British pound (11.3 per cent) and Japanese yen (9.4 per cent)

I dont think China Renminbi would get into currency basket any time soon , IMF is a tightly controlled institution of West who sole role is to maintain Western economic per-emminence , Including Renminbi would simply weaken it and the rules would be such that it wont let any other currency to be in SDR basket then the one the West wants into be.

China is using Currency Swapping and its own arrangement like AIIB , BRICS banks along with other economic powers like India to have a greater say in there.

Every country does some sort of currency manipulation http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-0 ... mf-meeting

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2015 10:19

Hi K.Sridhar, good to hear that you performed the Kailash yatra. I was there in 2008. We then took a Kathmandu-Kodari (Bus)-Nyalam-Zhangmu-Darchen-Tarboche and back by 4WD. I saw huge activity in building highways at that time and it seems they have all come to fruition now. However, we were not subjected to as many checks by the Chinese then as you describe now. It took us about 30 mins at Kodari and that was that except when two disinterested Chinese soldiers observed us for 5 or 10 minutes at Manasarovar when we were performing some pujas on the lakeshore. There were very few hotels then.

The closure of certain routes and the reduction in issuing visas were due to the earthquake and fear of landslides etc. The Nathu-La route is also operational from this year.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Sep 2015 16:37

China wants to grab institution of Dalai Lama: CTA - Anand Bodh, ToI

Amid the controversy that China wants to control the process of reincarnating next Dalai Lama, Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) at Dharamshala has claimed that China wants to grab Tibet's institution of the Dalai Lama due to its past geopolitical importance in the volatile politics of China, Mongolia and Tibet.

According to CTA, China's internal assessment that it cannot rule Tibet forever without the legitimizing influence of Dalai Lama over the Tibetan people is also behind the move.

CTA has prepared a 31-page report in response to China's White Paper on Tibet claiming that the legitimacy of the14th Dalai Lama of Tibet rests on China's recognition and approval. The report states that by demanding that 14th Dalai Lama reincarnate and in its determination to appoint his reincarnation, China is claiming this spiritual resource of Tibet which at its whim could be turned into a highly potent political tool.

Challenging China's claim, CTA said that there would be an international pushback to such a Chinese move. "The pushback will not only come from the Tibetan people but millions of Buddhists who traditionally share Tibet's spiritual culture and others in rest of the world who have benefitted from the teachings of His Holiness the Dalai Lama,' it added.

"Such a move on the part of China will create an international furor comparable to China muscling its way into the South China Sea," the report stated.

The report stated that Communist Party in China has realised the total collapse of Tibetan people's trust in its administration. "The peaceful protests that erupted throughout Tibet and the ongoing self-immolations are indicators of the Communist China's consistent failure to win the trust of the Tibetan people," it said.

"The Party's fear of the influence of Dalai Lama in China is best expressed by former President Jiang Zemin. He said even a visit by the Dalai Lama to China would make all Tibetans go mad," the report added.

It claimed this was a risk the Party had no stomach for. "Now, the Party wants to wait for the passing away of the 14th Dalai Lama and then select a pliant successor to continue its rule in Tibet," it added.

It said that Khata (white cloth) in hands and head slightly bowed, Gyaltsen Norbu swore undying allegiance to the Party and to its sitting general secretary. In the Party's game plan, Gyaltsen Norbu would be pivotal in helping the party to impose a 15th Dalai Lama on the Tibetan people, report stated.

aditya · Post by **aditya** » 07 Sep 2015 23:09

Not sure if this has this been posted before:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGs_dcXt-3k[/youtube]

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Sep 2015 05:03

http://www.rt.com/business/314632-china-fx-drop-yuan/
China's forex reserves down by record $93.9bn

China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $3.56 trillion last month as the country’s central bank intervened in the currency market to prop up the yuan and prevent capital outflow.
The reserves were down by almost $94 billion from July, plunging for four consecutive months, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday.The multibillion cutback is the sharpest monthly drop in reserves on record. China’s FX reserves, which have been falling from last year’s June peak of $3.99 trillion, stood at $3.65 trillion in July.

Citi: #China reserves depreciation at this level could be kept up for 3 years before the pot would run dry.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Sep 2015 14:09

'India Playing SCS Card for Concessions on Border Dispute, Pakistan' - New Indian Express

India is playing its South China Sea card by restarting oil exploration off Vietnam coast despite China's objections as a calculated geopolitical move to force Beijing to make "compromises" on border issue and its close ties with Pakistan, a state-run Chinese think-tank has said.

In an article in Global Times, Wang Dehua, Director at the Shanghai Municipal Centre for International Studies, said China should not hype India's role in disputed South China Sea (SCS) but "guide" New Delhi to work with it in view of attempts by US and Japan who are cozying up to India to strengthen anti-China alliance.

India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation decision to restart oil exploration of in the "disputed waters" is an attempt by India to play the SCS card against China, the article said.

"New Delhi has its own geopolitical interests in mind too. By playing the card of the South China Sea issue, it wants Beijing to make compromises on the border disputes or Pakistan-related issues," it said.

China has lodged official protests against such moves more than once, because this is not the first time India has explored for oil in the nine-dash line area claimed by China, it said.

"India is no longer 'looking East', for it has already been 'acting East'. The current focus of the country's maritime strategy is the 'Indo-Pacific'.

"India not only intends to maintain its primary position in the Indian Ocean, but also aims at wielding more influence in the Pacific. That's why it is busy preparing for the upcoming Exercise Malabar, a joint naval drill involving the US, Japan and India, in the Indian Ocean in October," it said.

This is the second article in recent days to criticise ONGC's move to drill for oil off Vietnam's coast at the invitation of Hanoi.

China claims whole of the SCS as its own which is disputed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

India asserts that the ONGC move is a commercial operation. Similarly, China defends its various projects, including the USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in the disputed Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) as a commercial venture aimed at improving people's livelihood issues.

Earlier this month, state-run China Daily in an editorial termed India's plans to conduct oil exploration off Vietnam coast as "illegal" stating that it is an "unwise move" and "do a disservice to maintaining the positive momentum" to improve ties.

The Global Times article yesterday said India is making forays into the SCS while treating the Indian Ocean as its own sphere of influence.

"Therefore, as China is enhancing its relationship with countries within the region, including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives, coupled with the recent news that Pakistan will buy eight submarines from China, New Delhi fears that the balance in the Indian Ocean will be disturbed.

"Indians are afraid that the water will be China's in the future," it said.

"To be frank, the US is driving a wedge between China and India. Indians should be aware that the biggest competitor against them in that area is Washington itself.

"India is hence balancing its ties with each side, in order to get advantages from all," it said.

"We should thus not magnify the competition between the two, but focus on developing common interests," the article added.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Sep 2015 21:34

SCS oil exploration is not a card. TSP is an inconsequential issue and will collapse due to its own contradictions.
The border dispute with China is political and is due to PLA and CPC dichotomy.

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 10 Sep 2015 23:47

There was news of a Cargo ship with Indian crew hijacked in SCS, wouldn't it make sense for IN to fight piracy there as the Chinese seem to abandon home turf and come all the way to Gulf of Aden to 'fight Piracy'!

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 11 Sep 2015 00:03

If they want to know whether it is a card being played by India or not, they should compromise first before "guiding" India. If it is not a card India might still go ahead and explore SCS. If their guess turns out be wrong then it is their own doing and they should write it off as their hubris.

member_19686 · Post by **member_19686** » 12 Sep 2015 07:03

Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Sep 2015 12:01

http://breakingdefense.com/2015/08/chin ... -on-guard/

“Is the purpose of a (Chinese) blue water navy simply to secure the sea lanes? I think it is also to defend China,” Cheng says. Why is China, traditionally a land-focused power, looking to patrol the world’s oceans, traditionally something that Western trading nations like Britain and U.S. have done to secure their economic and political interests? “China’s economic gravity has moved to the coast. so you don’t have any sort of buffer between the Chinese and the rest of the world.”

its not just the Indian ocean

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Sep 2015 12:03

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/chinese- ... eport.html

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 12 Sep 2015 19:29

What would it take to break China like Soviet Union?
Will the current economic scenario be helpful in anyway to crack the dragon open?

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Sep 2015 19:30

Altair wrote:What would it take to break China like Soviet Union?
Will the current economic scenario be helpful in anyway to crack the dragon open?

Religion: Buddhism and Islam

vasu raya · Post by **vasu raya** » 12 Sep 2015 20:14

India, China again edgy over Burtse in northern Ladakh

In what are fresh tensions between India and China, troops of the People Liberation Army (PLA) and the Indian Army are building up near Burtse in northern Ladakh.

The PLA was building a watch tower in the area to which the Indian Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police objected. The PLA rejected the assertion and the Indian Army in response has dispatched reinforcements to the spot as it senses PLA of ramping up, top sources told The Tribune today.

Though it’s not being termed as a face-off, sources said it could be a flashpoint as the watch tower is very close what is called the ‘border patrolling line’ — a way to address areas where even the alignment of un-demarcated LAC is disputed. The LAC alignment is roughly accepted by both sides in Lakakh but some pockets remain where the ‘border patrolling line’ is the accepted principle.

This is an informal un-demarcated line and troops on either side patrol in areas which they perceive as their own. The border patrolling line is the farthest point to which military patrols come from the Chinese side. On coming face-to-face troops of either side withdraw as per laid down protocol.

The area lies east of the Daulat Beg Oldie and is a trekking route at an altitude of 17,000 feet and the LAC alignment is under dispute.

The Burtse area, being adjacent to Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), forms part of huge Depsang plains perceived by India as its own territory. However, the Chinese side has been claiming it to be part of their territory as it gives them a tactical edge over the area, including the air field which was operationalised by the Indian Air Force (IAF) a few years ago.

This area was in news in April 2013 when a 21-day standoff between troops of either side ended after four flag meetings between the two sides. Then the PLA had pitched five tents in the area and claimed that it was a part of their territory.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 13 Sep 2015 02:16

Lot of articles in Indian papers, all say the same thing. It is not clear how old the news is:
http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/i ... 54521.html
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/joufWf ... adakh.html
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 72334.html
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 89941.aspx
Gautam

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 13 Sep 2015 02:19

Altair wrote:What would it take to break China like Soviet Union?

Time.
Gautam

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 13 Sep 2015 04:13

Succinct enough.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 13 Sep 2015 04:25

Add hubris to the list.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 13 Sep 2015 13:40

Americans hastened Soviet Union's demise. Can we do something like that? It looks vulnerable enough now, Can't we create an opportunity to exploit? I don't believe in waiting for opportunities but to give ourselves a fair chance to exploit it when we can create it.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Sep 2015 16:37

China economic growth sputters in August, more support measures seen - Reuters

Growth in China's investment and factory output missed forecasts in August, pointing to a further cooling in the world's second-largest economy that will likely prompt the government to roll out more support measures.

The downbeat data came on the heels of weak trade and inflation readings, raising the chances that third-quarter economic growth may dip below 7 per cent for the first time since the global crisis.

Fears of a China-led global economic slowdown have roiled global markets in recent weeks, prompting speculation that the US central bank may hold off on raising interest rates later this week.

"The pace of slowdown in fixed-asset investment is relatively fast - dragged by the property sector, while the factory sector remains sluggish," said Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore.

"Overall, the economy is very weak and the central bank may have to continue cutting interest rates and banks' reserve requirement," Zhou said, adding he expected growth was very likely to dip below 7 per cent in the July-September quarter.

Some economists believe current growth is already much weaker than official data suggest.

August power output, for example, was up just 1 per cent year-on-year, and production of key industrial commodities such as steel and coal weakened.

Growth in China's fixed-asset investment, one of the crucial drivers of the economy, slowed to 10.9 per cent in the first eight months of 2015 - the weakest pace in nearly 15 years, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast an 11.1 per cent rise, compared with 11.2 per cent in January-July.

Factory output also was weaker than expected, rising 6.1 per cent in August from a year earlier. Markets had expected a 6.4 per cent increase, compared with July's 6.0 per cent.

PROPERTY CONTINUES TO DRAG

Annual growth in China's real estate investment also continued to cool, slowing to 3.5 per cent in the first eight months, the weakest since early 2009, from 4.3 per cent in January-July.

While home sales and prices are slowly recovering from a slump last year - the area of property sold rose at a slightly faster pace of 7.2 per cent in January-August - analysts say it will take time for developers to work off a huge overhang of unsold houses and a sharp falloff in new construction will continue to dampen demand for materials from cement to steel.

Sales of earth excavators fell 33 per cent in August from a year earlier, hitting heavy machinery makers such as China's Sany and US heavyweight Caterpillar Inc, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note last week.

"The property sector is the biggest drag on China's economy," said Yu Pingkang, chief economist at Huatai Securities in Shenzhen.

"A pick-up in infrastructure investment is insufficient to offset the slowdown in property investment." Yu has pencilled in 6.9 per cent growth for the third quarter.

Retail sales were the lone positive surprise, growing 10.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, above forecasts of 10.5 per cent, the same as July.

But the increase did not appear to jibe with recent reports from local and foreign firms in China of slowing sales.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, which dominates online sales in the country, on Tuesday lowered its sales forecasts in a fresh signal that the economic slowdown is taking a bite out of consumer spending.

Vehicle sales fell 3 per cent in August from a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.

Data last week showed that China's manufacturers slashed prices at the fastest rate in six years in August as commodity prices fell and demand cooled, signalling stubborn deflationary risks in the economy and adding to expectations of further stimulus measures.

Imports tumbled more than expected while exports shrank again, pointing to persistently weak demand both at home and abroad.

China's surprise yuan devaluation last month and a plunge in its stock markets since June have fuelled fears of more shocks to the economy, although Premier Li Keqiang last week brushed off concerns it was facing a hard landing.

Most analysts agree the economy is likely facing a prolonged but gradual slowdown, rather than a sharp loss of momentum.

China's central bank has cut interest rate five times since November and repeatedly relaxed banks' reserve requirements (RRR) in a bid to put a floor beneath the sputtering economy.

Further policy easing is widely expected in coming months, and the government is also trying to boost investment in infrastructure projects to support growth.

The government is aiming for annual economic growth of around 7 per cent this year, which would the slowest in half a quarter century.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 Sep 2015 16:57

China says there is no stand-off on border, but confirms watch tower construction - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

China said on Monday that there is no stand-off between the People's Liberation Army and Indian troops on the India-China border as has been reported in the Indian media. It asked the Indian government to clarify the situation.

"As far as I know, there is no such face off in the border area. Chinese troops are performing their duties on the Chinese side of the border," Hong Lei, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said at the regular briefing on Monday.

Indian reports said a joint patrol of the Indian Army and Indo-Tibetan Border Police spotted the People's Liberation Army building a watch-tower close to the mutually-accepted "border patrolling line" near Burtse, which is part of the Depsang plains in the northern part of eastern Ladakh, on Friday. This led to a stand-off as the Indian Army personnel at the spot called for reinforcements.

Hong suggested that the "Indian side can make clarification on this matter in order to maintain peace and tranquility in the area".

Officials on the two sides adroitly have built a mechanism for cross-border consultation to avoid any dispute among border personnel since the meetings between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping early this year. Questions are being asked if the border consultation mechanism is working on the ground.

Hong seemed to confirm that China may have actually started building the watch tower when he said that his country is entitled to carry out "relevant activities" on its side of the border.

"Chinese border troops are carrying out relevant activities on the Chinese side, and we are committed to maintaining peace and tranquility in the border area," the ministry spokesman said.

Hong explaining that India-China relations are "enjoying sound momentum" since leaders of the two countries reached an "important consensus for maintaining peace and tranquility in the border areas".

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 Sep 2015 18:49

they will talk peace when it suits them !

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Sep 2015 20:09

The chinese "talk peace" while waging war and raising hostilities -- that much is very clear from their recent behavior.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 14 Sep 2015 20:21

It is akin to saying we are amassing troops at the border, but we have not fired any shots yet and do not intend to. You believe that at your own risk.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Sep 2015 04:53

Wary of China, Japan and Vietnam boost security ties - Reuters

Vietnam agreed with Japan on Tuesday to step up security cooperation, becoming the latest Southeast Asian country to seek closer ties with Tokyo as China maintains an assertive posture in disputed waters in the South China Sea.

The agreement between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Vietnam's Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong comes after a U.S. expert said on Monday China appeared to be carrying out preparatory work for a third airstrip in contested territory in the South China Sea. [ID: nL1N11K26F]

China has overlapping claims with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei in the South China Sea. It is also embroiled in a row with Japan over a group of East China Sea islets.

Earlier this year, Japan reached an agreement with Malaysia and the Philippines to strengthen security ties.

"I find it highly meaningful that we have shared serious concerns over the continuation of unilateral behaviors that change the status quo and escalate tensions, such as large-scale reclamation and building of outposts in the South China Sea," Abe told a joint news conference, without naming China.

Japan also agreed to provide more used ships to Vietnam, in addition to six it already supplies to help with maritime patrols.

"We shared understanding that all the disputes should be resolved through peaceful means, using international law including the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea," Trong said through an interpreter.

On the economic front, Japan decided to extend 28.6 billion yen ($239 million) in official development assistance (ODA) to Vietnam for building a general hospital in Ho Chi Minh City.

Tokyo also plans to provide Hanoi with further ODA of about 100 billion yen for transport infrastructure, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said.

($1 = 119.7200 yen)

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Sep 2015 06:25

After LAC face-off, India & China to hold joint exercise - Rajat Pandit, ToI

Notwithstanding frequent troop face-offs along the Line of Actual Control, including the recent one at Burtse in Ladakh, India and China are now all set to conduct another bilateral "Hand-in-Hand" (HiH) military exercise as a confidence-building measure between the world's largest and second-largest armies.

Sources say the HiH exercise will be held at Kunming in China from October 11 to 23, with India earmarking a detachment of soldiers from the famed Naga Regiment to match their combat skills with People's Liberation (PLA) troops there.

This comes soon after the two armies operationalised their fifth border personnel meeting (BPM) point at Daulat Beg Oldi last month, which adds to the existing ones at Chushul (Ladakh), Nathu La (Sikkim), Bum La and Kibithu (Arunachal).

The HiH exercises, additional BPM points, the border defence cooperation agreement inked in October 2013 and proposed hotlines between top commanders, are all designed to bridge the "trust deficit" between the two armies ranged against each other along the 4,057-km LAC.

But though not a shot has been fired along the LAC for decades now, it cannot mask the wariness with which the Indian security establishment is viewing the accelerated modernisation of the PLA, which is acquiring potent trans-border, space and cyberspace military capabilities at a rapid clip.

Even though there is realisation that China is primarily trying to counter the ongoing "rebalance" of US military forces to the Asia-Pacific, the expanding footprint of Chinese nuclear and conventional submarines in the Indian Ocean Region over the last year has only served to accentuate the concerns here.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 19 Sep 2015 02:40

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/asia/japa ... index.html
Japanese lawmakers OK greater overseas role for military

Tokyo (CNN)Japan's upper chamber of Parliament early Saturday approved controversial bills allowing the country's military to engage in overseas combat in limited circumstances -- a major shift after seven decades of pacifism.The legislation reinterprets Article 9 of the Japan's pacifist post-World War II constitution, which outlaws war as a means of settling international disputes. The reinterpretation will now allow the Japanese military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, to defend its allies in a limited role in conflicts abroad.Supporters of the legislation, including top U.S. officials, say Japan needs to expand the role of the SDF to counter potential threats from nations such as China and North Korea. Both continue to develop their military and nuclear weapons programs.Earlier this month, China staged its largest military parade ever to celebrate 70 years since Japan's World War II defeat. Beijing remains locked in territorial disputes with multiple Asian neighbors in the East and South China seas.On Tuesday, North Korea warned the United States and its allies that it is ready to use nuclear weapons "at any time" and is expected to launch a new satellite using a long-range rocket sometime in the coming weeks.Tokyo has faced growing international pressure to expand the role of its military, including deployment, to defend the interests of its key allies, including the United States. America is bound by treaty to defend Japan, an agreement that has been in place since 1960.Japan is like the 42-year-old kid still living in the basement of the United States," said longtime Asia strategist Keith Henry.Henry says Japan is assuming a more proactive role in regional security, in part to offset China's growing military might."Japan is moving out of the house of the U.S. that was essentially built after World War II," Henry said. "But there are risks involved in protecting one's national self interests."

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Sep 2015 05:17

Japan expands military's role, China decries move - Reuters

Japan's parliament voted into law on Saturday a defence policy shift that could let troops fight overseas for the first time since 1945, a milestone in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to loosen the limits of the pacifist constitution on the military.

Abe says the shift, the biggest change in Japan's defence policy since the creation of its post-war military in 1954, is vital to meet new challenges such as from a rising China.

But the legislation has triggered massive protests from ordinary citizens and others who say it violates the pacifist constitution and could ensnare Japan in US-led conflicts after 70 years of post-war peace. Abe's ratings have also taken a hit.

The legislation "is necessary to protect the people's lives and peaceful way of living and is for the purpose of preventing wars," Abe told reporters after the bills were approved by the upper house. "I want to keep explaining the laws tenaciously and courteously."

Japan's ally the United States has welcomed the changes but China, where bitter memories of Japan's wartime aggression run deep, has repeatedly expressed concern about the legislation.

China's foreign ministry said the move was "unprecedented".

"We solemnly urge Japan to learn the lessons of history ... uphold the path of peaceful development and act cautiously in the areas of the military and security, and do more to help push regional peace and stability rather than the opposite," it said.

The bills, already approved by parliament's lower house, were voted into law by the upper chamber in the early hours of Saturday despite opposition parties' efforts to block a vote by submitting censure motions and a no-confidence motion against Abe's cabinet in the lower house. All were defeated.

A key feature of the laws is an end to a long-standing ban on exercising the right of collective self-defence, or defending the United States or another friendly country that comes under attack, in cases where Japan faces a "threat to its survival".

"Even if the constitution is revised, among the Japanese people no one is thinking of going to foreign lands for the purpose of exercising force," former defence minister Itsunori Onodera told Reuters in an interview earlier this week. "I think Japan will maintain that stance from now on as well."

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Sep 2015 07:05

ASEAN trade corridor could ease regional tensions: China - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Brushing aside dispute over the South China Sea, China on Friday called for the fuller economic integration with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), steered by the Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor under the framework of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR).

Soon after the 12th edition of the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit began, delegates from China and ASEAN arrived at the “Nanning Consensus” to build the Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor, more formally dubbed as the China-Indo-China Peninsula International Corridor.

The core initiative aimed at economic integration, would connect eight major cities — Singapore, Kuala Lampur, Bangkok, Phnom Penh, Ho Chi Minh City, Vientiane, Hanoi and Nanning.

From Nanning, further connectivity nodes would be extended to coastal Guangzhou and Hong Kong, thus forming a pattern of “one corridor connecting 10 cities.” Analysts say that project fits into integrated regional plans to develop western and central China.

Nanning is geographically well positioned to link up through a waterway with the prosperous Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao.

Besides, the Nanjing-Singapore corridor will cover two related trajectories. While one line will head towards Vietnam, the other would be expended to the less developed Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

Observers point out that the corridor is being structured to help China, which wishes to revamp its economy to a more developed “new normal” plain, shift its excess manufacturing capacity to the less developed zones in the ASEAN.

Once the corridor enters implementation phase “labour-intensive and resource-intensive industries” would cascade in the direction of Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

In his inaugural address, Chinese Vice Prime Minister Zhang Gaoli, unveiled Beijing’s aspiration for shaping a common future in Southeast Asia, which included economic integration and cultural inclusivity, well-shielded from unfolding global turbulence.

“At present, profound changes are taking place in global political and economic patterns. China and ASEAN have to strengthen cooperation, build a community of common interest, common destiny and common responsibility with political mutual trust, integrated economies and inclusive culture,” Mr. Zhang observed.

The Chinese leader signaled to the assembled ASEAN representatives, that common stakes in political stability and economic prosperity, far overrode differences over the boundary alignment in the South China Sea. In the presence of representatives from the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — countries which dispute Beijing’s interpretation of maritime boundaries in the South China Sea, Mr. Zhang stressed Beijing’s commitment to a tension-easing code of conduct in these waters.

Opposed to the presence of the militarisation of the Pacific by the U.S., Mr. Zhang stressed that Asians should themselves take charge of security in their backyard.

“China stands ready to work with the Asian countries to implement the declaration of the code of conduct of the countries of the South China Sea in a full, effective and comprehensive manner,” he observed.{Absolute nonsense. Even the CoC is not firmed up after nearly a decade due to Chinese intransigence}

The Chinese are offering false promises and twisting the scenario itself. The militarization is only because of China. China is attempting to turn this fact on its head.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 Sep 2015 10:09

Government keen to resolve border dispute with China, says Arun Jaitley

HONG KONG: Bullish on growing trade ties with China, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today said the government is very keen to see the border dispute getting resolved expeditiously, even as he said India's border with China has been "far more peaceful" than the western borders.

"India-China trade has increased significantly. Trade has brought the two countries much closer... We have some contentious issues of the past between us, but even while those issues would be resolved in the due course, I think our economic relations have become a symbol of strength and therefore mutual investments in each other's country will be a win-win situation for both of us," he said.

Jaitley, who is here to meet foreign investors, also said China has established its place as a low-cost manufacturing brand globally and India is now trying to build its Made in India brand with the Make in India campaign.

Great economies do compete with each other and that does not mean they become opponents," he said during his media interactions here.

On border issues, Jaitley rejected the suggestions that it was proxy war-like situation. "I don't think that is the correct expression to use. There is a border dispute and there is a mechanism in place since 2003 in order to look at that dispute," he noted.

We will be very keen to see that the border dispute is resolved very fast. In fact, the border with China has comparatively been far more peaceful than our western border itself," he said.

On opportunities for India to attract FDI after China slowdown, the Finance Minister said, "I see an important opportunity for India and I see that opportunity because the relative slowdown in China does not impact India as such."

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 23 Sep 2015 06:25

This was tweeted by
Tanvi Madan ‏@tanvi_madan 9m

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Sep 2015 07:36

UAVs help pinpoint Chinese transgression - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

High-resolution images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) showing Chinese transgression into Indian territory played an important role in forcing them to withdraw in the stand-off at Burtse in northern Ladakh recently.

Officials with knowledge of the matter told The Hindu that images from Heron UAVs of a watchtower constructed inside Indian territory by the Chinese played a crucial role in border meetings with the Chinese side and forcing them to pull back from Indian territory.

The Chinese initially demanded payment for the watchtower which was demolished by Indian troops, but later relented, sources said.

India operates a large number of Israeli-made Heron and Searcher UAVs. Heron is a medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV with endurance of over 24 hours and capable of flying at 35,000 feet.

India deployed Herons on the 4,000-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2013 to monitor frequent Chinese transgressions. The UAVs are operated by the Air Force.

A stand-off ensued after Indian troops demolished the watchtower erected by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army soldiers 1.5 km inside the Indian side of the LAC at Burtse.

To resolve the issue, India and China held border meetings last week at Chushul and Daulat Baig Oldie.

So, the Chinese were blatantly lying when they denied that their troops had intruded into Indian territory and claimed that there was no stand-off either. China denies stand-off on LAC, says troops on its side of border

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Sep 2015 12:16

Chinese military directly blames Indian Army for border standoff - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

In a rare statement, the Chinese military on Thursday directly blamed India for its actions during the recent border standoff between the two countries. It was referring to India's move of removing a hut, along with surveillance cameras, that had been erected by Chinese troops at Burtse in Ladakh on the Indian side of the border about two weeks ago.{Let us remember that in August 2014, there was a serious intrusion of 25 Kms inside Indian territory in Burtse in North Ladakh near Daulat Beg Oldie. On June 17, 2013, two weeks before defence minister A.K.Antony’s official visit to Beijing, the first by an Indian defence minister in seven years, the PLA took away a high resolution camera in the Chumar sector and when India protested, the Chinese returned the non-functional camera on June 19th}

"The recent actions by the Indian Army in the relevant area were not consistent with the relevant agreement and spirit of the consensus of the two sides," People's Liberation Army spokesman Wu Qian said at a news briefing. "Jointly maintaining peace and tranquillity of India-China border is an important consensus reached between the leaderships of the two countries, and also a solemn commitment and promise made by the two government and militaries."

The Chinese government usually refrains from public criticism of India on the border issue, leaving it to government-controlled media to do so. During past altercations, Chinese officials at the foreign ministry and the military have expressed hope that the two sides will be able to resolve their differences through mutual dialogue. This may be the first time in recent years that the PLA has publicly challenged the Indian action on the border.

"We ask the Indian Army to earnestly implement the important consensus reached by the two governments and refrain from taking any unilateral actions which will affect the situation in the border areas and work together with the Chinese military to jointly maintain peace and stability in China-India border areas," Wu said.

India's view is that Chinese soldiers were the one to cause provocation by erecting a hut with equipment for generating solar power and watching the movement of troops inside its border.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 25 Sep 2015 13:50

^I was feeling a bit glibly satisfied when I read that IA actually removed the huts and also demolished the cameras about a wk ago. Stuff like this doesn't reach the news very often... and it ideally doesn't need to either. Still feeling v satisfied to see things happening and not allow China to walk all over scot free.