Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[ramana]

X-Post from political dhaaga behind the boorkha

I found an interesting paper from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute




the big red dots represent extreme commitment to an opinion that they want to spread..The small red dot represent the believers of the opinion , who are not committed to spread it...green is the opposite opinion or a different opinion..yellows are both opinion or ambiguous...the model is a 3D extrapolation based on regression and other models...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 190044.htm

Scientists have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion.

Very interesting. Islam around 15-16% demands control like Shariat etc.

long ago in a series of posts and counter-posts between Rudradev and Ramanujam studies of grazing habits of wild animals in African plains show that 15-17% of group tending to one area of the field will lead to the whole herd moving there. The 17% get attracted when 2-3 stragglers/pioneers go off in a different direction.


So in above paper do they explain how the 10% get convinced to follow the isolated pioneers!

[svinayak]

Though the US and Russia betrayed India in the UN, IMO, it will be Chinese who we will have to defeat in order to secure our legitimate and rightful place in the UN.

Let us recall the Chinese stance so far on Indian participation in many world bodies including the UNSC. The following is prior to the latest developments.

After US announced unambiguously its support for a permanent seat in the UNSC, China remained the only P-5 member that did not support India’s candidature.

The United Nations (UN) is an intergovernmental organization to promote international co-operation. A replacement for the ineffective League of Nations, the organization was established on 24 October 1945 after World War II in order to prevent another such conflict.

The original reason for the UN was to take disputes of small princely states of India when India was asking for independence. Kashmir was the first experiment of UN. UN was created for India and smaller states.
When Union of India was formed and India became a republic in 1951 the need for UN vanished.

Now 70 years later in 2015 the PRC/China has become a rogue nation and is threatening the order in east asia. The mercantile powers in the west including the anglo mercantile power wants a stable order in Asia since this region is the region of next prosperity. West need help in putting boots in the ground. West/US need large armies in Asia to keep order. The pivot to Asia is the initiative to keep order. India and Japan have the crisis nearby and are coming together in an alliance to counter the China hegemony.

US by keeping away from the reform of the UNSC txt US is paving the way for change. This change in UNSC will help in reducing the influence of China in Asia. Russia under sanction does not want change. Russia and China partnership is needed by each other to counter US dominance. But China has upper hand and is acting independently.

Mercantile power of the west will want India to increase its influence and UNSC is one of the ways to do it. It will balance the independent acting China in Asia. India has to keep working on UNSC even if it takes a long time since it diminishes the influence of China globally. China will falter and India will be able to secure the rightful place.

If they manage to create war between India and China when Russia is under sanction then India will be in a weak spot. Russia will support China. India will get international support including from US and other Asean nations

If India avoids a war with China then the west will seek help from Russia to contain PRC/China. A rogue China is danger to the mercantile western powers as well as Russia.

[svinayak]

This is the best article so far. This article with the previous post makes the whole picture

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/modi-us-v ... /6502.html

Biggest takeaway of Modi's US visit: India has finally risen above its region
The PM's attention must now be unflinchingly on economic reforms.

The rockstar reception Prime Minister Narendra Modi received in San Jose, California, on Sunday evening may have stolen the headlines. But after six action-packed days in the United States, culminating in a bilateral with President Barack Obama in New York on Monday, the real takeaway from Modi's US visit is this: India has finally risen above its region.

The contours of the Modi government's strategy are now sharply etched. They rest on two key pillars: the economy and geopolitics.

The first clear priority is to focus singlemindedly on the economy. That includes attracting foreign and domestic investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, digital technology, education and healthcare. Former US President Bill Clinton, during his 1992 presidential campaign, immortalised the phrase: "It's the economy, stupid." Prime Minister Modi needs to place that principle at the heart of his government's geoeconomic policy.

The world respects hard power: economic, military and diplomatic. Soft power - culture, diaspora, innovation - is a necessary but not sufficient condition for converting the emerging US-China bipolar world order into a tripolar world order with India as the third angle of this triangle of power.

The PM's attention must now be unflinchingly on economic reforms. His meeting with 47 CEOs in New York and an elite group of technology entrepreneurs in California threw up one overwhelming message for the Indian economy: right direction, wrong speed. Unless the pace of economic reforms picks up, India's seven percent annual GDP growth rate will not be enough to raise 300 million people out of debilitating poverty quickly enough.

The key reforms?

Tax policy must be clear and consistent. Bureaucratic red tape must be cut. Project implementation must be speeded up. The ease of doing business must rapidly improve. Everyone recognises India is the world's second largest market. The only thing holding back a flood of foreign direct investment (FDI) is decrepit public infrastructure, a colonial-era bureaucracy, rampant corruption and opaque governance.

Modi fought the Lok Sabha election on the promise of rectifying precisely these problems. But they have proved harder to tackle than he imagined. The governance ecosystem he inherited from the Congress is broken. The prime minister has erred in not being more ruthless with the detritus of this old, fixer-and-crony driven system. Some in the BJP, especially the Delhi unit, are a silent part of this system.

The prime minister must fix the talent gap in the government by co-opting technocrats from the private sector. If a KV Kamath can be appointed chairman of BRICS Bank in Shanghai, there is no reason why top talent from the corporate and academic world can't be attracted to positions in government. The recent decision to hire chairmen of select PSU banks from the private sector is a move in the right direction. The PM knows that the Aadhar scheme, which is central to his financial inclusion strategy, was created by the UPA government's one sensible private sector appointee with cabinet rank: Nandan Nilekani. The Modi government needs several Nilekanis in key positions - and there is no shortage of such individuals.

Let's look at some hard numbers. At an annual growth rate of seven per cent, India's nominal GDP will double to $5 trillion (Rs. 33 lakh crore) in ten years. By then China's GDP, assuming an average annual growth rate of six per cent, would have risen from $11 trillion to $19 trillion. America's GDP in ten years, at an average annual growth rate of three per cent, would have increased from $18 trillion to $25 trillion.

The picture changes dramatically, however, if through strong economic reforms India ups its annual GDP growth rate from seven to nine per cent. Within ten years, India's GDP would then rise from $2.50 trillion to $6 trillion, edging out a deflationary Japan to become the world's third largest economy after the US and China. If purchasing power parity (PPP) numbers - which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) routinely use - are taken, India's GDP in 2025 at an annual growth rate of nine per cent would be even higher - roughly $14 trillion to China's $34 trillion and America's $25 trillion.

The arc of containment

It is argued, both in government and outside it, that India must maintain good relations with Pakistan to ensure that our economic progress is not derailed by a country obsessed with parity with India. That parity of course is a myth: India's economy is currently nine times larger than Pakistan's. At current respective growth rates, within ten years it will be nearly twenty times as large.

How then should India control Pakistan's juvenile behavior across the border? The key is to neutralise Islamabad's geopolitical support structure. Pakistan's principal benefactors are China, the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The PM has shrewdly begun the neutralisation process with the UAE. A visit to Saudi Arabia is next in line. The rapidly developing India-US partnership will further cut American support to Pakistan.

That leaves China. Here India must build on its relationships with Vietnam and Japan, both victims of Chinese bullying. In 1979, Vietnam fought and won a short, sharp conflict with China. It remains an implacable opponent of Chinese expansion in the region. Japan has a long history of conflict with China. Beijing still smarts over Japanese occupation of parts of its territory during the Second World War. The dispute over islands in the East China Sea continues to poison relations between the two Asian economic powerhouses.

India must therefore build an "arc of containment" from Vietnam and Japan in the east to the US in the west. A self-absorbed country like China respects strength and strategic insight in its opponents. India through the decades has shown neither. Now it can and must display both.

Vice-president Joe Biden underlined the importance Washington attaches to New Delhi when he said that the US wants to be India's "best friend". For the US, China is the principal economic and geostrategic threat. India represents the only credible counterweight to China. For India too, the US represents an important component in its arc of containment directed at China.

By containing China with geopolitical locks, its support to Pakistan will be capped. Simultaneously, the strategy with Saudi Arabia and the UAE will remove some of the back-end support Pakistan currently receives. Afghanistan meanwhile is turning increasingly hostile towards Pakistan. President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani began his tenure over a year ago as a Pakistani ally. He was far more sympathetic to Pakistan than his predecessor President Hamid Karzai. But in recent months a spate of terror attacks by Pakistan-based Taliban factions have turned him against Islamabad.

Pakistan in turn blames the Afghanistan government for not doing enough to curtail terrorists targeting Pakistan and operating from Afghan territory. The attack on a Pakistan military air base on September 18 killed 29 people. Within hours of the attack Islamabad said phone intercepts showed Taliban gunmen involved in the raid were being directed by handlers in Afghanistan. The Afghan people in survey after survey have blamed Pakistan for the insurgency in their country - and simultanelously praised India's role in building schools, hospitals and roads across Afghanistan.

In a recent oped in the Hindustan Times, Sameer Lalwani argued that the costs of "confronting" Pakistan would be very high. This is disingenous and simply wrong. It echoes the shrewd Pakistani strategy of threatening "economic derailment" to deter India from retaliating to its "hit-and-run" terror. It is a fradulent argument that needs to be buried.

These then are India's geostrategic cards: Vietnam, Japan and the US to pin China down; Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Afghanistan to reduce Pakistan's elbow room in the region; Iran, Israel and the littoral states of the Indian Ocean to strengthen India's hands. The Modi government inherited a scorched-earth economy and directionless diplomacy. The challenge is to fix the economy with robust reforms and reshape its geopolitical strategy by creating an arc of containment looping from Vietnam to the US.

Many in this government, including disappointingly home minister Rajnath Singh, repeat the old cliché that you cannot change your neighbours - suggesting India must somehow learn to live with Pakistan-promoted terrorism. It's true you can't change your neighbours. But by applying to them the right geopolitical medicine, you can change their behaviour.

#Pakistan, #Geopolitics, #Modi in US

[A_Gupta]

^^^ Re: economic reforms, arc of containment - I've been wondering about economic containment of Pakistan. Clearly, India wants to be the first choice for any investment in South Asia. But what about second choice? I think if India does well, and also plays additional cards, it can make Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh be preferable to Pakistan as investment destinations in South Asia, and Myanmar as the destination with access to India, ASEAN and China. If India does better, it will lose competitiveness in some areas that possibly Pakistan could fill in. But with India's help, the friendlier neighbors could be a better bet than Pakistan. It is one thing, and probably against WTO rules, for things to mysteriously go wrong in India for multinationals that contemplate investment in Pakistan; it is entirely another thing that all in all, say, Bangladesh is the better investment than Pakistan, and so few think of Pakistan in the first place. Sure, China will keep dribbling money into the intravenous feed to keep Pakistan alive, but based on competitiveness, it should be a net drain on China.

[shiv]

Scientists have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion.

There was a somewhat related study that I heard about and this was about teams of workers on the factory floor. It was found that, for example, when three workers had to work on a particular task, and had been together for a while - each worker would take up one aspect of that task and do it. If one worker was replaced, the two remaining guys would continue to do what they had "specialized" in doing while the new third worker would be forced to take up the task of the guy who had left. The study found that if two workers were replaced, then the new team would go through a process of readjustment where a new type of work sharing would emerge.

This study basically supports the idea that once a group get 2/3 majority the remaining third will be forced to conform to the majority view. From gakakkad's quoted study it can be surmised that even less than 2/3 can do the trick with "unshakeable" beliefs

[ramana]

Speaks volumes of US military training in Iraq and Afghanistan that at first sign of combat the local military just folded. Eg. Iraqis against ISIS and Afghans against Taliban at Kunduz.

[JE Menon]

^^Absolutely... what is abundantly clear is that "loyalty" to any Western constructs like "military establishment" and "nation state" or "democracy" and "secular principles" are sorely lacking at all levels; the exceptions are few and far between. Loyalty is only to the monthly payout, or daily or whatever. If that quantum is addressed by another party, or if another party appears to be poised to disrupt the flow, these people will either switch sides or lay down their weapons and make an instant reassessment of their prospects, going forward. This is rational behaviour in that environment. I don't blame them at all. Those above constructs mean nothing at all within an Islamic socio-cultural and educational framework. Those few that are loyal to those above constructs are either paid very well, have assurances of personal and family safety, and stand a prospect of emigrating or have already got a green card or an EU residency. These are the ones that the Taliban will kill first, with intelligence and guidance from the Pakistani military establishment - who probably meet these "loyal" men on the Afghan side in multilateral and other meetings.

Having said that, there is nothing wrong with the denouement that we are seeing in Afghanistan. it does not take a rocket scientist to predict the ballistic trajectory of violence and bloodshed that is likely to ensue. What will be tricky is to determine where the multiple warheads will land, and what likely inflight or terminal manoeuvres there might be in process between launch and warhead detonations. India's job is simply to ensure that these warheads detonate anywhere but at home. This is not that difficult. There is a huge buffer called Pakistan, and there is a wonderful software called Islam which we are now reasonably expert at updating remotely. And we will not be alone in this (it's open source), as we have not been for a few years now - I believe. However, there will be some unpredictable shrapnel flying across the border. Par for the course. We have handled before.

[Viv S]

There was a somewhat related study that I heard about and this was about teams of workers on the factory floor. It was found that, for example, when three workers had to work on a particular task, and had been together for a while - each worker would take up one aspect of that task and do it. If one worker was replaced, the two remaining guys would continue to do what they had "specialized" in doing while the new third worker would be forced to take up the task of the guy who had left. The study found that if two workers were replaced, then the new team would go through a process of readjustment where a new type of work sharing would emerge.

I haven't read your study but it reminds me of that joke -

Start with a cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, hang a banana on a string and place a set of stairs under it. Before long, a monkey will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana. As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all of the other monkeys with cold water. After a while, another monkey makes an attempt with the same result - all the other monkeys are sprayed with cold water. Pretty soon, when another monkey tries to climb the stairs, the other monkeys will try to prevent it.

Now, put away the cold water. Remove one monkey from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new monkey sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his surprise and horror, all of the other monkeys attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs, he will be assaulted.

Next, remove another of the original five monkeys and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous newcomer takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm! Likewise, replace a third original monkey with a new one, then a fourth, then the fifth. Every time the newest monkey takes to the stairs, he is attacked. Most of the monkeys that are beating him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest monkey.

After replacing all the original monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys have ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless, no monkey ever again approaches the stairs to try for the banana.

Why not?

Because as far as they know that's the way it's always been done around here.

And that, my friends, is how bureaucracies function.

[Singha]

BD is already very competitive in most respects vs pakistan as a destination for new investment in some areas . they get special trade benefits with EU for instance which pak does not. thats why so many textile industry operates from there.
overall BD does not have millions of armed directionless young men looking for a fight or loot, 1000s for sure, but not millions...the rest want to work and move ahead by reasonably peaceful means.

[Paul]

I have a feeling Paki Industrialists like the Ispahanis and others have continued operations in Bangladesh even after 1971. An article in Dawn referred to Paki textile businesses relocating MFG to Bangladesh to take advantage of better conditions over there

[Vipul]

^^^ Even after getting substantial GSP Plus concessions for exports to the EU, Paki exports in absolute value terms have actually declined.

[panduranghari]

This is a must-watch video. Wilkerson describes the path of empires in decline and shows how the US is following the classic trajectory. He contends that the US needs to make a transition to being one of many powers and focus more on strategies of international cooperation.

The video is full of rich historical detail and terrific, if sobering, nuggets, such as:

History tells us we’re probably finished.

The rest of of the world is awakening to the fact that the United States is 1) strategically inept and 2) not the power it used to be. And that the trend is to increase that.

Wilkerson includes in his talk not just the way that the US projects power abroad, but internal symptoms of decline, such as concentration of wealth and power, corruption and the disproportionate role of financial interests.

Wilkerson also says the odds of rapid collapse of the US as an empire is much greater is generally recognized. He also includes the issues of climate change and resource constraints, and points out how perverse it is that the Department of Defense is the agency that is taking climate change most seriously. He says that the worst cases scenario projected by scientists is that the world will have enough arable land to support 400 million people (no typo).

naked capitalism

It proves the point its not the US military might which gives it the strength. Its the international use of Dollar as a reserve which gives it the machismo. Does the tail wag the dog or does the dog wag the tail? The answers are all in that speech. Its superb.

[Aditya_V]

I have a feeling Paki Industrialists like the Ispahanis and others have continued operations in Bangladesh even after 1971. An article in Dawn referred to Paki textile businesses relocating MFG to Bangladesh to take advantage of better conditions over there

Does that mean ISpahani centre in Chennai is owned by Pakis?

panduranghari- totally disagree, let US slow down and disband all its conventional Miltary, you see its powers of coerision significantly reduce. I would say its economic might is because of their military might.

[Paul]

Hussein Haqqani was in Chennai some time ago to visit relatives and Ispahanis are related to him through his wife who carries last name Ispahani. Her Grandpa was the first Paki amabassador to the US. So it is possible this center you refer has a Paki connection.

[panduranghari]

Aditya_v for your perusal

Military recruitment in 21st century America

The small problem is that too few young Americans meet the standards of the armed forces. Generations of public policy have given American a large underclass, whose children are poorly educated, swept through our criminal injustice system, and turn to drugs (since they have so little opportunity). This gets the attention, as in this week’s “Here’s why most Americans can’t join the military” by Blake Stilwell in the somewhat megalomaniac-named website We Are The Mighty.

For a good summary of this see “How Do We Recruit, Train and Retain the Right People for the Future Force?”, Panel Discussion at Transformation Warfare 2007 Conference on 20 June 2007. Excerpt from the Air Force Times …

Most of today’s youth are not eligible for military service because they are too fat, too weak, not smart enough and prone to drug-use and criminal behavior, according to a panel of senior military officers.

“We are all victims of our own past success. We all have a conscript mentality that there’s a never-ending supply of perfect high school graduates that are over the horizon coming at us to fill every job we have,” said Vice Adm. John Cotton, commander of the Navy Reserve. “I’ll tell you what, we’re about to be shocked, because they are not there.


.....In addition to changes in attitudes toward authority, changing political beliefs also are affecting the military’s ability to attract new personnel. William Mayer’s work has shown that a strong case can be made that there has been a trend toward more liberal positions on most social values. American society may be more liberal and individualistic now than when Huntington’s theory of objective civilian control was first formulated in The Soldier and the State. This shift may have special significance for the civil-military gap, because while a plurality of civilian leaders are classified as liberals, only a small fraction of military officers are in that category.

........Youth attitudes are shifting to take them further from the military perspective. Interviews with youths on the subject revealed several characterizations. “They don’t like to be told what to do.” “Most teenagers don’t want to commit to anything.” Teens “don’t like getting up early.” Such attitudes don’t comport well with a military career.

… In addition to physical and intellectual separation, the modern force is not demographically representative of the population at large. John Lehman argues that “we have created a separate military caste.” He points out that while most American community leaders have had military experience, few of their children have. Exacerbating the situation is the fact that cadets and midshipman who are children of career military parents are present in record numbers at the service academies.

If these steps prove insufficient, American might adopt another British tool: use foreign units as shock troops (e.g., the Gurkha). Empires need armies to fight the foreign wars for the benefit of their ruling elites. Their success at recruiting, training, motivating, and retaining these troops shapes not only their foreign policy — but their domestic policies as well.

[panduranghari]

The above post falls into Western Universalism category too, Also understanding US-2. The race problem in the US police is summed well in there - "we have created a separate military caste." No wonder the ex military police find it hard when civilians do not take orders.

[Arjun]

I have a feeling Paki Industrialists like the Ispahanis and others have continued operations in Bangladesh even after 1971. An article in Dawn referred to Paki textile businesses relocating MFG to Bangladesh to take advantage of better conditions over there

A number of Indian textile firms have manufacturing operations in Bangladesh as well. Low end manufacturing constantly shifts to the next low-cost location...what's the point you are trying to convey?

[Paul]

I have already identified you as a troll in the Political drama thread a week ago where you asking baiting on Modi commeting on the Beef issue, hence no need to reply!

[Arjun]

I have already identified you as a troll in the Political drama thread a week ago where you asking baiting on Modi commeting on the Beef issue, hence no need to reply!

I started the Modi cheer-leading thread on this forum way back in 2012, & you identify me as a troll from one solitary comment that Modi needs to speak about Dadri (incidentally a POV shared by another Forum Moderator who I presume is also a troll in your eyes)

In any case, your ability (or lack thereof) to articulate was on full display in the earlier interaction and confirmed on this thread.

Cheerio and toot-toot.

Mods, I will have more to say on this interesting interaction in the feedback thread.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

An interesting blog. Wonder whether the writer visits BRF.

Interesting article on Indian and Chinese Population Size.

[RoyG]

With the US pulling out its carriers from the Persian Gulf, we will see their redeployment to Mediterranean, Pacific and Arctic Rim.

The SCO and Iranians are preparing the ground for a NYMEX/IPE alternative. The first step is chipping away at American security guarantees to gulf royals.

Next, they will try to liquidate ISIS and other jihadi groups as fast as they can and push them further inward toward the Arabian peninsula.

When this happens they will force the Saudis to the table. Russians will broker a ceasefire deal between them and Iran and in return Saudis will agree to pressure GCC countries to coordinate their economic moves with SCO.

They will get to keep a Sunni buffer state in present day Iraq.

Regime change and balkanization of SA and Israeli moves can't be discounted in all of this and may throw up a few surprises.

The world is headed for a huge economic crisis. They normally turn kinetic if they're big enough.

I see some parallels between the British and American imperial exits.

[Klaus]

Putin's already met with deputy crown prince & DefMin of KSA, IMO moves are afoot to get KSA to break the petro-dollar hyphenation.

I've always wondered what awaits bankers and people in the financial services industry in general if the USD does lose primacy & plunges the world into depression?

[panduranghari]

Though there are parallels between the imperial exits of US and UK, USA will never go the way of UK. USA is too big and has enough internal resources to survive comfortably. However, any fall from where they are will be perceived globally as weakening. Even the Russian support of Syria is considered weakening of the US! What US is waiting for is its own Putin. Alas they have got no one of that stature. And when they eventually get one like that, the stupidity like Vietnam, Afg, Iraq, Syria will all stop.

[habal]

bad news for USA

RT article: Japan wants to cut its spending on US bases in order to fund JDF. My idea? Kick the Americans out and take the bases over for JDF.
https://www.rt.com/news/318367-japan-base-usa-funding/

[Philip]

A wider dimension to the Russian gambit in Syria. Escobar is spot on about the air denial zone,with the US having to now ask the Russians about flying over Syria! The Russian mil. intervention in Syria ,having achieved a foothold both with naval facilities at Tartus and an air base on the ground,will continue to expand as time goes,as it will establish a firm foothold in Syria from which it can exercise its influence in the Meditt.,without being strangulated and confined to the Black Sea by the Bosporus Straits by Turkey/NATO.In any case,its Kalibir missile attacks from the land-locked Caspian Sea has been nothing short of sensational. The ripples of that attack are still reaching shores around the world.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/319184-dr-st ... d-escobar/

Dr. Strangelove is naked
Pepe Escobar

Published time: 20 Oct, 2015
U.S. General Philip Breedlove. © Ciro De Luca

The whole Global South is now informed about how the Russian campaign in Syria has swiftly smashed all of ‘Exceptionalistan’s’ elaborate plans for a “Greater Middle East.”

These plans span everything from the Wolfowitz Doctrine to Dr. Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski’s categorical imperative of preventing the emergence of a strategic competitor across Eurasia.

But the subtext is even more intriguing: The Pentagon never saw it coming. And they are absolutely terrified of the inevitable consequences.

The panic was palpable, as relayed by Dr. Strangelove, sorry, NATO’s top commander Gen. Philip Breedlove, a.k.a. Breedlove/hate, the man who announces every week Russia is invading Ukraine.

READ MORE: NATO saber rattling: ‘When you need militarism, you invent threats to legitimize policy, budgets’

Although proverbially handicapped in his geopolitical analysis – Russia wants to hinder US and “coalition” operations in the region - Breedlove/hate is clearly puzzled by the new, unforeseen, intricate layers of Russia’s defense network.

In his own words: “We’re a little worried about another A2/AD bubble being created in the eastern Mediterranean.”

In Pentagonese, A2/AD means anti-access/area denial.

Translation: a mix of surface-to-air missiles and anti-ship missiles that can be deployed to prevent any player from entering or crossing a certain area.

Breedlove/hate goes as far as to admit this is Russia’s “third denial zone” around Europe. The first is in the Baltics – via the Kaliningrad base. The second – based in Crimea – covers the Black Sea. In his own words: “Their cruise missiles range the entire Black Sea, and their air defense missiles range about 40 to 50 percent of the Black Sea.”

He is convinced the deployment of these “very sophisticated air defense capabilities” is not about purging Syria from the Salafi-jihadi constellation. It’s about “something else.”

And the point about “something else” is that the Pentagon knows it, but cannot possibly admit it publicly. Neocons and neoliberalcons at best can transform their apoplexy into vociferous demands for a mega-upgraded Pentagon budget, or to force Obama into keeping troops in Afghanistan indefinitely – as if any informed observer would doubt there would never be an exit.
Here is just a sample of how the battlefield has been completely redrawn.

But the real game-changer, once again, has been the show-stopping performance of the 26 Kalibr-NK cruise missiles launched by the Russian Caspian fleet against 11 Salafi-jihadi targets 1,500 km away, destroying them all.


Breedlove/hate cannot possibly admit the Caspian cruise “message” was directed at NATO. The Kalibr-NK flew over both Iran and Iraq, at a maximum altitude of 100 meters – not to mention speeding by a US drone.

Translation: this spells out the absolute irrelevance of all – multibillion - elaborate plans for missile defense deployed in Eastern Europe. Remember, those US missiles which would be deployed against the “Iranian threat”.

NATO is also terrified that all its state-of-the-art C4i software – command, control, communications, computer, intelligence – has been totally jammed by Russian technology, all across Syria and southern Turkey. Essentially, reduced to sitting ducks. Imagine a similar, much amplified scenario in a hypothetic war on European soil over Ukraine which neocons never cease to itch for.

We have A2/AD too

No wonder these military breakthroughs translate, in terms of public opinion, into fabulous PR for Russia. Just check Putin the Hajji in Iraq. Incidentally, if one really wants to know how ‘Exceptionalistan’ destroyed Iraq in the first place – creating the conditions for the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and then ISIS/ISIL/Daesh – might as well ditch Claire Danes in Homeland and check out: Iraq Year Zero, by Abbas Fahdel, which hits the screen in France next year.

As for the non-stop uproar in US corporate media, if this is the best American ‘Putinologists’ can come up with it, the Kremlin certainly does not need enemies.


Meanwhile, in the economic front, Russian domestic oil demand is growing. What this means is Russia is slowly but surely shifting from an import economy to a manufacturing center, replacing US and EU imports, moving towards self-sufficiency and focusing on domestic credit expansion for productive investments. The military breakthroughs are a “don’t mess with us” message inbuilt in a complex economic transformation process.

In addition, Chinese oil imports grew 8 percent for January through September year over year – especially in the petrochemical and transport sectors, outweighing any apparent slowdown in the use of industrial oil. Next week comes the crucial announcement of the next Chinese five-year plan. No, China is not crashing, as much as the China-Russia strategic partnership keeps expanding.

Beijing is following in close detail the “messages” sent by Russia in Syria. And don't forget that in the A2/AD department, China has its own set of messages, including the bunker-busting DF15B, the DF-16 with a 1,000 kilometer range, and the DF-21D “carrier killer” - 2,500 kilometer range and capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

Expect many a naked lunch between Dr. Strangelove and his masters in the Beltway

[Agnimitra]

About the manufactured alarm by the English language media about freedom of speech, communalism, etc - one target will be to dent India's attempt for UNSC. The other is to suppress economic investment.

Denting the brand equity and thereby the investment attractiveness of emerging economies by magnifying dramatic negative news to create a standard narrative about those countries is now a tried a tested strategy that was first demonstrated on the 'MINT' guinnea pigs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey). (1) With Mexico, a gangwar shooting spree became the only headline about the country, following which it dropped out of the MINT limelight. (2) With Turkey, the anti-Erdogan protests at Taksim square and the somewhat harsh reaction of police became the main story about Turkey that year and has been since (it is another matter that, 2 years down the line, in the just concluded election AKP came out much better than all these media mavens 'predicted'). That dented Turkey's brand and it dropped out of the MINT story. (3) For Nigeria, Boko Haram was turned into the chosen brand ambassador and given international spotlight far more than all the other things happening there. So it too lost its MINT tiger sheen. (4) Only Indonesia was spared to some extent, and that only because of the rise of the AAP-style figure of Widodo (although its an insult to Widodo's integrity to compare him with Kejri). So the same MINT strategy is being used against the BRIC countries, with India being a prime target because of the well-developed and dominant internal collaborator network. It won't play out exactly like MINT because the scale and power here is different. Nevertheless, damage is being done.

[panduranghari]

The domain of politics and economics cross or they could in theory be one and the same. Please read this very illuminating essay on the same. I hope this is not a wrong thread. Please delete if deemed inappropriate

https://mises.org/library/economics-abo ... ationships

The other day I was having coffee with a new friend, a retired businessman who had customized luxury cars in California. I mentioned I had recently retired from owning an investment firm and had studied economics for many years, especially Austrian economics.

Like so many people, he said, “I really don't understand economics and always have been confused by it.”

To which I surprised him with, “Of course you understand economics; it is the thought process you use every day to deal with three things: scarcity, property, and relationships.”

His eyes got big and he said, “Whoa! Say that again.”

“OK,” I said, “Everything in human life is organized around how we make decisions about three things: scarcity{like oil}, property{like territorial integrity}, and relationships{with neighbouring countries and further afield}.

“First let’s talk about scarcity which you’ve known about all of your life — you notice when something is missing or about to be missing; it is how you decide when it’s time go to the grocery store, do your laundry or whether you should drive your car faster so not to be late for an appointment.

“Every human being is an expert in the decision process of scarcity. It is something we all naturally do whenever we act and choose — which, by the way, we are doing all the time, every day, all day long.”

I smiled, “I could go on and on. You want more?”

“Sure,” he smiled back.

“All humans make action and choice decisions that automatically weigh the following factors. Knowledge: what do we know? Risk and uncertainty: what is our estimate of the risk we can foresee? What do we not know? Time and priority: when do I want or need this? And, how important is this to me right now in relation to other options? Value: what am I willing to give up to have this thing right now?

“This is the personal way you understand economics; it’s the decision process that every human being goes through every time they act and choose, even if it is only for me, alone.

“But there is another important way you already understand economics, which is how we interact with others. That is why I mentioned property and relationships because here is where the decision process I outlined above takes into account other people.

“Economics is also about how we decide how we will think about — and therefore organize — our property and our relationships.”

After a long pause my new friend then said, “Wait a minute. You haven’t talked about money. Even I know that economics is the study of money.”

To which I said, “The study of money and monetary exchange is the most applied use of economic theory. And this is to be expected.

“Why? Because of property.

“You probably already know that money is a medium of exchange. But what are we exchanging? We are exchanging property, your property for my property.

“It is most valuable to think that there are two conversations happening during every monetary — or property — exchange.

“The first conversation is the one I am having with myself; when I give $3 for this fancy cup of coffee I am saying, “I value that coffee more than the $3 in my pocket.”

“The second conversation is the one the café owner is having with himself. He is saying, “I value your $3 more than the coffee I have for sale.”

“Money is the handiest form of property so I don’t have to try to exchange a fish or a chicken for a cup of coffee, for example.”

I continued, “the real use of economics is in the conversation of how we organize ourselves in groups. Do we peacefully respect each other’s property? Do we peacefully cooperate with a shared sense of peaceful-values or is it that fearful-values are forced on us by some Single Dictator, as in a single person, or a Group Dictator, which is otherwise called democracy, by the way.”

At this point my new friend was squirming and said, “So, really economics is based on politics.”

I said, “Actually, it’s the other way around. If you like, I can send to you a great little essay written in 1850 that clarifies this. The writer’s name is Bastiat and he explains that economic architectures precede political architectures.

“In other words, if you look at politics as simply an argument of how we should organize ourselves, then it becomes obvious that it really boils down to how we know, or don’t know, what property is and how we should deal with it as we relate to each other in life and living.

“This is what I was referring to when I said that economics is also about relationships. The connection between economics and politics is how we organize our relationships and whether our ‘shared values’ assume we can have (and want to have) a society based more on peaceful cooperation — or not.”

As all conversations go, it became apparent that it was time to wrap this up, so I said, “Well, there you go. I have been studying this for a long time. If you would like to learn more I can direct you to learn about these things in a step-by-step way.”

To my surprise, he said, “No, let’s continue. This is very interesting. But one thing bothers me. Are you also saying that humans don’t need rules and laws and that our so-called ‘self interests’ are enough to keep us humans interacting in a more peaceful way? The news is too full of the horrors of humanity to swallow that one.”

I replied, “Well, it is true that the media is mostly reporting bad news. And there are definitely places and times throughout the world where the balance was and is greater violence of man against man.

“But it is also true that this exists against a backdrop of a pretty darn peaceful world overall. On any average day, you are more likely to end the day peacefully in bed than being the victim of some violent or unfortunate occurrence.

“There are many, many examples of shared peaceful values that we — the world over — rely on in our daily life, that show this to be true. My favorite is the freeway. Here we move along at speeds that easily can kill us and yet we all — mostly and most of the time — peacefully cooperate.

“But let’s talk next time about whether we need to organize ourselves around an assumption that the only way people will peacefully cooperate is via some agency being given the exclusive use of force or whether there are other ways that we can both have rules, laws, and remedies and — at the same time — a higher order of peace, prosperity, and freedom.

“Because there is a way.”

[panduranghari]

Its not THE US Military that gives the USA its strength. Its the international usage of US dollar which does. And Chinese want that. They want the yuan to be the international currency of choice. And all their moves are to keep this final goal alive.

[RoyG]

It's actually both. Without the US military nobody would use the dollar.

[panduranghari]

RoyG,
US has held that gun to the head of world for about 70 years. They ran down the gold standard by 1971, even though it was their idea. The world stayed with dollar as there was no 'go to' currency. After 1971, the number of economic crisis has increased in number and intensity.
OPEC crisis -1973
Latin American debt crisis -1980
Japanese asset price bubble -1986
Black Monday-1987
Nordic economic crisis-1988
Indian economic crisis-1991
Mexican crisis-1994
Asian financial crisis-1997
Russian economic crisis-1998
Dot com crash-2000
Housing bubble in the west-2003
Sub prime mortgage crisis-2007
Anglo-saxon financial crisis-2008

All are directly related to the dollar. The role of dollar in all these crisis is what we need to understand.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

Today the world does not need the dollar as it did in 1971. The world has changed and we are still playing by the old rules. That just cannot go on. The USA probably also knows this. So it has now held the gun to its own head and they are trying to instigate wars all over the world.

If you say, the US army is also responsible for the use of the international use of the dollar- then why did USA so hastily get the pacific rimland countries to sign the TPP? They even included Vietnam in the TPP. Surely greatly powerful army of the USA is not scared of Vietnam?

[panduranghari]

[mohanty]

I think Panduranghari is right...US is not a superpower due to it's military but it is the dollar. Military is a parasite, it is the economy that feeds it. If that was not the case USSR would still be around. Chinese know this very well. That is why Chinese want Yuan in IMF SDR and are building massive gold reserve while our "modernizer" Mr. Modi calls gold a dead-asset trying to scam the citizens into his Ponzi gold-deposit scheme.

[Neshant]

Its not Modi's idea to get people into paper gold.

Its the hare brained scheme of textbook economists who are parroting what they heard abroad.

The decision to store or not store wealth in gold or paper should be entirely that of the free market.

Some tsar sitting up top trying to direct people to put money into paper, gold or the stock market is what wrecks economies.

[mohanty]

It is entirely Modi who is doing it. It is his govt. He claims(at least that's what newspapers say) that the gold schemes are feathers in his cap as achievements. After his Band Baja gold scheme got only 400gms from citizens he focused his aim on temples. Now they are saying if banks fail to persuade temples then govt. will be directly involved.

And we are saying Modi isn't part of this but only academics/economists are doing this? If so then what an utterly incompetent PM he is.

Why is China building massive gold reserve and actively promoting it's citizens to buy gold while Modi is doing the opposite?

And speaking of Tsar, the entire Niti Ayog is just that, a Tsar. The CEA Arvind Subramanian was doing few months back even monsoon weather prediction. Then he wanted interest rates dropped and rupee devalued to boost exports. But after recent panics and rupee falling, he has changed his tunes. These are the academics Modi has hired.

When you take credit for good things you have to take blame for bad things too.

This thing will bite the puppets who fall his schemes in rear badly. But it will be too late to complain by then.

[hanumadu]

mohanty, we understand you don't like Modi. Now can you go to the whines thread or go some place else where you find people sympathetic to your cause.

[mohanty]

LOL, Modi fans are upset and can't take any criticism. Whatever I said above directly relates to politics and economics. I do not consider myself as either pro or anti Modi. And I still consider Modi better than the Italian mafia govt of fake Gandhis.

But instead of pointing out where I said something wrong, the fan boys start personal attacks. Anyway, I will not be responding to personal attacks any more. It is not in my interests whether Modi or Sonia or Kejri or Mamata or whoever succeeds or fails as long as it doesn't affect people like me and others who are ruled by these so called "leaders". But when it does, and I disagree, I express it. That's all I will say about this non-issue.

[panduranghari]

Its not Modi's idea to get people into paper gold.

Its the hare brained scheme of textbook economists who are parroting what they heard abroad.

The decision to store or not store wealth in gold or paper should be entirely that of the free market.

Some tsar sitting up top trying to direct people to put money into paper, gold or the stock market is what wrecks economies.

That's correct. Its the policy some hare brained economists who work for the GOI imported from the Pakistan of Europe- Turkey. Turkey in turn imported it from Vietnam. But then no one in the GOI is listening to those who are telling its a stupid policy.

[panduranghari]

FYI, Even Prof. Vaidyanathan said unless Mudra Bank is running and is proven to be effective, no one would be willing to part with their gold. Here is my 2 paisa opinion on the perils of gold monetisation scheme. http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 9#p1946009

[hanumadu]

LOL, Modi fans are upset and can't take any criticism. Whatever I said above directly relates to politics and economics. I do not consider myself as either pro or anti Modi. And I still consider Modi better than the Italian mafia govt of fake Gandhis.

But instead of pointing out where I said something wrong, the fan boys start personal attacks. Anyway, I will not be responding to personal attacks any more. It is not in my interests whether Modi or Sonia or Kejri or Mamata or whoever succeeds or fails as long as it doesn't affect people like me and others who are ruled by these so called "leaders". But when it does, and I disagree, I express it. That's all I will say about this non-issue.

If you have a problem with every thing what Modi does and in every thread on this forum, then you are predisposed to dislike Modi. What you post is just a rant about Modi this, Modi that.

[kmkraoind]

Putin has warded off attempts to isolate Russia - Kanwal Sibal in Dailymail.co.uk

The Syrian intervention shows that Vladimir Putin does not feel that his margin of geopolitical manoeuvre has shrunk after the confrontation with the West over Ukraine, and the annexation of Crimea.

The US has tried to isolate Russia politically and impose economic costs on it through sanctions. Instead of being put on the defensive, Russia is defending its interests with confidence. It has coordinated its intervention with Iran and Iraq, demonstrating that it is not isolated even in this highly-sensitive region hitherto largely dominated by the US and its allies.